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Heresy 231 Alienarea Strikes Again


Black Crow

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It has always struck me as off that Ned holds the Lannisters in such contempt when he never speaks ill of Rhaegar and doesn’t seem to hold the same hatred towards any Targaryen. It also bothers me that Robert left Ned’s words to blow on the wind when he was talking of his distrust of them. I’ve always wondered if there was something he we going to reveal to Robert, but he got blown off. 
 

That said. I think it’s been 5 years since I’ve read any of these books so my memory isn’t the best. 

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10 hours ago, Black Crow said:

Wouldn't we all. While I'm in no doubt as to the Blessed St Jon of Arryn having an important role in getting Bob Baratheon on to the throne, I don't see him having a hand in Lyanna's abduction, that's not only a stretch but an unnecessary one.

Lyanna's abduction was aimed at frustrating rather than furthering his knavish tricks.

On theother hand I'm open to to Tywin's involvement somewhere although have no idea how

I like the idea of Littlefingers involvement. In a theoretical scenario with a Jon Arryn faction and a Rhaegar faction. And Rhaegar crowned Lyanna to warn off the Starks, it seems a very Littlefinger thing to do to recognize this and play the sides against eachother. He could have helped arrange Lyanna's abduction and exactly how he planned, the blame ends of falling on Rhaegar. 

Edit: IMO Rhaegar not being at all involved with Lyanna after the Harrenhal Tourney makes sense out of his conversation with Jaime. It's a small glimpse, but he seems to be nonchalant about everything. When I come back I will call a council, it seems I must dispose of my cousin, etc. No hint of remorse or thought of how he had just divided the realm and plunged it into a brutal civil war by either abducting or eloping with his new lady love Lyanna.

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If Lyanna hadn't been abducted, Robert Baratheon would have married her. And Brandon Stark would have married Catelyn Tully. And Ned ... Ashara Dayne? Was this why they were introduced to dance?

As a result, the Lannisters were to lose power. Jaime couldn't inherit Casterly Rock. Whom could Cersei marry? Loras? Tywin had to act.

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12 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

I like the idea of Littlefingers involvement. In a theoretical scenario with a Jon Arryn faction and a Rhaegar faction. And Rhaegar crowned Lyanna to warn off the Starks, it seems a very Littlefinger thing to do to recognize this and play the sides against eachother. He could have helped arrange Lyanna's abduction and exactly how he planned, the blame ends of falling on Rhaegar. 

Edit: IMO Rhaegar not being at all involved with Lyanna after the Harrenhal Tourney makes sense out of his conversation with Jaime. It's a small glimpse, but he seems to be nonchalant about everything. When I come back I will call a council, it seems I must dispose of my cousin, etc. No hint of remorse or thought of how he had just divided the realm and plunged it into a brutal civil war by either abducting or eloping with his new lady love Lyanna.

I'm sure someone referenced an SSM recently in which GRRM expressed faint puzzlement at the idea young Littlefinger would be in a position to intervene.

On the other hand I think the point about Rhaegar's conversation with Jaime is well made. Rhaegar sounds as though he's setting out to clear up another fine mess that's none of his making - and which he implies is the last straw.

As I've suggested, Rhaegar might see the abduction of Lyanna as a means of frustrating the alliance being put together by St. Jon of Arryn. Something went wrong. Was it Tywin Lannister who engineered it on Aerys say-so ?

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16 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I'm sure someone referenced an SSM recently in which GRRM expressed faint puzzlement at the idea young Littlefinger would be in a position to intervene.

 

 

Might have been me. 
Thats still 'hearsay' to be fair. I can't find it, I just recall that coming out during a discussion about the topic some years back. 

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22 hours ago, Black Crow said:

... I think the point about Rhaegar's conversation with Jaime is well made. Rhaegar sounds as though he's setting out to clear up another fine mess that's none of his making - and which he implies is the last straw.

As I've suggested, Rhaegar might see the abduction of Lyanna as a means of frustrating the alliance being put together by St. Jon of Arryn. Something went wrong. Was it Tywin Lannister who engineered it on Aerys say-so ?

Further to this thought, it occurs to me that there's an assumption that Rhaegar disappeared off the face of the earth from the beginning of the rebellion until being found just in time to have that conversation, ride north and die at the Trident.

Traditionally the assumption is that he was hiding out with Lyanna.

Its possible of course, but I'd suggest that rather than committing a staggering dereliction of duty, he was actually engaged in a desperate exercise in diplomacy. Its very heavily trailed in the World Book that the Harrenhal tournament was organised to cover discussions going into conspiracy anent a peaceful trnsfer of power.

The crown of roses episode I've suggested was actually Rhaegar trying to warn off a rival conspiracy headed bu Jon Arryn, but whatever the truth of that particular possibility, the other conspiracy, involving Rhaegar himself won't simply have evaporated. Heading off from King's Landing into foul weather with a few companions sounds more like going round the Houses clandestine-like to keep the conspiracy alive, rather than a long ride north to an uncertain interception of a certain young lady. Then the rebellion begins. Where is young Rhaegar? The "traditional" answer is in that young lady's bed, but is it not more likely that he's trying to prevent the world and his wife from joining the rebellion, acknowledging the causes but persuading the waverers that the Targaryen throne is still worth fighting for if he's there to sit on it. When he speaks to Jaime he's confident that he's going to have the backing of a council. He has also secured the support of the Dornishmen [perhaps even brokered that marriage alliance], but first he needs to defeat Robert Baratheon.

None of this is to deny the possibility of his having possession of Lyanna Stark, but surely its more likely than removing himself from everything else while a full-scale rebellion rages

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I think it's incredible that many don't consider the possibility that Rhaegar was on Dragonstone attending the birth of Aegon when Lyanna went missing, as well as staying with his wife Elia when it's reported that she nearly died giving birth. How callous do you think the man was?

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Sorry, but I've always found the theory that the abduction of Lyanna was a political stunt to prevent a political marriage a fairly silly idea.  The way to stop a marriage alliance would be to present one or both parties with a better, more politically advantageous match.  Not kidnap the daughter of someone as powerful as Rodrick Stark.

I can't think of a better way to cement an alliance between two houses than to kidnap the daughter and betrothed of the two houses.

Or if the argument is that Rhaegar was hoping that no one would know that he was responsible, then making yourself the prime suspect at the Harrenhal tourney seems a tad silly as well.

I mean the answer to all this is fairly simple in a way.  We aren't given much about Rhaegar's motivations, but we know that he believes in prophecy and he is obsessed with Summerhall.  And in turn Summerhall dealt with a dream of dragons.

The fact that Aemon believes the birth of the Prince that was Promised was a precursor to the Battle for the Dawn, makes it very likely that Rhaegar believed the same.  The fact that Aemon believes that the presence of dragons alongside Dany proves that she is the Prince that was Promised, makes it very likely that Rhaegar believed that he needed to bring dragons back to help fulfill the prophecies concerning his son.

So either starting with Aegon's conception or birth, it seems fairly evident that Rhaegar's sole motivation was preparing for the Battle for the Dawn.  And I mean starting at Harrenhal and moving forward, to include the ride out with his band of brothers from King's Landing which ultimately led him to the Riverlands.

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Sorry, but I've always found the theory that the abduction of Lyanna was a political stunt to prevent a political marriage a fairly silly idea.  The way to stop a marriage alliance would be to present one or both parties with a better, more politically advantageous match.  Not kidnap the daughter of someone as powerful as Rodrick Stark.

I can't think of a better way to cement an alliance between two houses than to kidnap the daughter and betrothed of the two houses.

Or if the argument is that Rhaegar was hoping that no one would know that he was responsible, then making yourself the prime suspect at the Harrenhal tourney seems a tad silly as well.

I mean the answer to all this is fairly simple in a way.  We aren't given much about Rhaegar's motivations, but we know that he believes in prophecy and he is obsessed with Summerhall.  And in turn Summerhall dealt with a dream of dragons.

The fact that Aemon believes the birth of the Prince that was Promised was a precursor to the Battle for the Dawn, makes it very likely that Rhaegar believed the same.  The fact that Aemon believes that the presence of dragons alongside Dany proves that she is the Prince that was Promised, makes it very likely that Rhaegar believed that he needed to bring dragons back to help fulfill the prophecies concerning his son.

So either starting with Aegon's conception or birth, it seems fairly evident that Rhaegar's sole motivation was preparing for the Battle for the Dawn.  And I mean starting at Harrenhal and moving forward, to include the ride out with his band of brothers from King's Landing which ultimately led him to the Riverlands.

If the only reason for Lyanna's disappearance had been to prevent her from marrying Robert, it would have been easier to murder her and blame someone like the mountain clans.

The marriage is prevented, Brandon doesn't ride to KL, Rickard and Brandon most likely don't get murdered.

Lyanna's abduction made Brandon snap, and that was predictable. And Aerys' reaction to it was predictable, too. 

Who would want this? Jon Arryn, and maybe Littlefinger.

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41 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Who would want this?

Tywin Lannister. Or under the right circumstances the Martells. 
 

ETA: Don’t forget that Tywin got screwed out of the alliance by Jaime not being available to wed Lysa. The Martells were also in a precarious position with Elia as the current future monarch is unable to carry further children. 

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3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Sorry, but I've always found the theory that the abduction of Lyanna was a political stunt to prevent a political marriage a fairly silly idea.  The way to stop a marriage alliance would be to present one or both parties with a better, more politically advantageous match.  Not kidnap the daughter of someone as powerful as Rodrick Stark.

I can't think of a better way to cement an alliance between two houses than to kidnap the daughter and betrothed of the two houses.

I agree, there's not a lot about the known (or suspected) actions that Rhaegar was taking during his final year or two of life that seems politically beneficial; as you elaborated in the rest of your post, I think an attempt to see that TPWP prophesy is fulfilled makes more sense for why he was MIA--though, I break with many Heretics in that I don't find the whole love story angle to be terribly unlikely either, even if it isn't the route that I would prefer the author to take. 

To return to the suggestion that Rhaegar's actions were political, political success is tied heavily to public perception, and while we don't know what Rhaegar was truly doing, we know what a lot of people believe he was doing, and that's still relevant. 

For example, nobody remembers Lyanna as a political prisoner, nobody remembers Rhaegar threatening her safety to deliver ultimatums to the "STAB" alliance. Similarly, nobody that has expressed an opinion about Harrenhal thus far seems to have interpreted the blue roses as some sort of coded message related to Lyanna's betrothal.

We must also ask, if Rhaegar's absence was about shoring up alliances, with whom was he talking? This SSM would suggest he wasn't reassuring the Martells, even though they should have been some of his staunchest allies:

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Baratheon_Brothers/

Quote

Rhaegar had Dornish troops with him on the Trident, under the command of Prince Lewyn of the Kingsguard. However, the Dornishmen did not support him as strongly as they might have, in part because of anger at his treatment of Elia, in part because of Prince Doran's innate caution.


He may have been talking to the Lannisters, but Kevan reiterates the common public perception regarding Lyanna:

Quote

Cersei could have given the prince the sons he wanted, lions with purple eyes and silver manes … and with such a wife, Rhaegar might never have looked twice at Lyanna Stark. The northern girl had a wild beauty, as he recalled, though however bright a torch might burn it could never match the rising sun.

Was Twyin engaged in a conspiracy that Kevan wasn't privy to? Perhaps, but that doesn't seem to align with the way their dynamic has been presented.

There's also Barristan, who buys into the love story narrative, which doesn't tell us what really happened, but it does tell us what didn't happen.

Notably, Barristan (along with the aforementioned angry Dornish) is among those that march to the Trident with Rhaegar, yet Rhaegar apparently didn't do anything to clear the air, or disabuse his allies of the notion that he'd run off with Lyanna, even though it wouldn't be politically beneficial to have everyone believing he's a philanderer who was MIA while the realm fell apart and his House faced its greatest peril.

On the other hand, allowing the realm to believe he was a philanderer might have been a convenient red herring, if what he was really doing was something involving finding a Third Head, hatching dragons, hiding Aegon VI (for those that believe Young Griff is the real deal), or any number of other things that might fall under the umbrella of PTWP business.

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1 hour ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Tywin Lannister. Or under the right circumstances the Martells. 

This seems very apropos to me:

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - Epilogue

She will never wash the stain away, no matter how hard she scrubs. Ser Kevan remembered the girl she once had been, so full of life and mischief. And when she'd flowered, ahhhh … had there ever been a maid so sweet to look upon? If Aerys had agreed to marry her to Rhaegar, how many deaths might have been avoided? Cersei could have given the prince the sons he wanted, lions with purple eyes and silver manes … and with such a wife, Rhaegar might never have looked twice at Lyanna Stark. The northern girl had a wild beauty, as he recalled, though however bright a torch might burn it could never match the rising sun.

But it did no good to brood on lost battles and roads not taken. That was a vice of old done men. Rhaegar had wed Elia of Dorne, Lyanna Stark had died, Robert Baratheon had taken Cersei to bride, and here they were. And tonight his own road would take him to his niece's chambers and face-to-face with Cersei.

I have no reason to feel guilty, Ser Kevan told himself. Tywin would understand that, surely. It was his daughter who brought shame down on our name, not I. What I did I did for the good of House Lannister.

 

It seems more likely to me that Tywin Lannister was involved with the events that led to the war, Rhaegar and Elia's death, their children and Lyanna's death.  All to put Cersei on the throne.  All those deaths could have been avoided if the other road was taken.  If Aerys had agreed to marry Rhaegar and Cersei in the first place. 

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26 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

There's also Barristan, who buys into the love story narrative, which doesn't tell us what really happened, but it does tell us what didn't happen.

I'm still taking the love story narrative with a grain of salt:

Quote

A Storm of Swords - Sansa VI

"Gentle, pious, good-hearted Willas Tyrell. Be grateful you were spared, he would have bored you spitless. The old woman is not boring, though, I'll grant her that. A fearsome old harridan, and not near as frail as she pretends. When I came to Highgarden to dicker for Margaery's hand, she let her lord son bluster while she asked pointed questions about Joffrey's nature. I praised him to the skies, to be sure . . . whilst my men spread disturbing tales amongst Lord Tyrell's servants. That is how the game is played.

"I also planted the notion of Ser Loras taking the white. Not that I suggested it, that would have been too crude. But men in my party supplied grisly tales about how the mob had killed Ser Preston Greenfield and raped the Lady Lollys, and slipped a few silvers to Lord Tyrell's army of singers to sing of Ryam Redwyne, Serwyn of the Mirror Shield, and Prince Aemon the Dragonknight. A harp can be as dangerous as a sword, in the right hands.

 

 

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On 7/5/2020 at 7:06 AM, Black Crow said:

I'm sure someone referenced an SSM recently in which GRRM expressed faint puzzlement at the idea young Littlefinger would be in a position to intervene.

I recall this as well.  It might have been in one of the SSM compilations posts I made recently. I think GRRM said something to the effect that Petyr was still a boy and badly injured. 

9 hours ago, Black Crow said:

The crown of roses episode I've suggested was actually Rhaegar trying to warn off a rival conspiracy headed by Jon Arryn, but whatever the truth of that particular possibility,

This makes a lot of sense especially given the manner of the presentation - on the end of the lance and dropped in her lap. The reaction to the 'crowning' that wasn't a crowning, says that the message was understood by those who were privy to the real purpose of the Tourney. 

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On 5/20/2020 at 5:41 AM, lalt said:
 

I don't know what's really going on. My best guess is only that Mance is the author/one of the author.

But why is he doing so? I don't know.  

I am pretty sure that Stannis is awere of the Rattleshirt/Mance ruse, that in the long conversations the two had they came up with a plan that involves Jon. But is Mance 100% loyal? That I don't know... the ASOS chapter I quoted, tells me, he may not be.  That he may have just waited / created an opportunity to get revenge. It's a 50%/50% so to speak.

 

We can argue endlessy about what is true or not when it comes to the events and facts reported by the PL.

However, the reality is that we simply don't and can't know what is true, or how much is true, etc...

So in my opinion, it's... pointless.

But I wrote a post a while back about this list. Just because I think that the list proves one (if not the only) thing we can be sure about (or that we can debate with less assumptions): the "true motive" of the letter. Namenly:

- to make Jon leave the Wall immediately. A motive, consistent with all the main "suspects"

The author asks for children and women. Plus Reek.

And the ultimatum he gives is best ultimatum you can possibly imagine, if you want the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch to abandon his position.... immediatley.

Jon has to chose between harming the NW and surrending women and children (who - beside fArya and Reek) are his guests.

So in reality... he has not choice, but to do something else. To do what he does. Or what he was about to do.

Sure, in theory Jon can choose to harm the NW or to surrend those people (to "a creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women" as the letter just imformed him) . But if you want him to leave the Wall (and to do that as soon as he can and with an army) you cannot make any offer or menace more effective than this one.

Your best chance - if you want him to leave the wall -  is to issue an almost unacceptable ultimatum. The one the author of the PL issued.

And if that's the point... of course the author talks about "Reek" not Theon.

Jon has 0 reason to trust Theon. But as far as Jon knows, Reek is a man/guy who helped his sister escape. So he has not reason to not trust this guy Reek.

Therefore, he may leave (as he was about to do) without waiting for this lovely, honorable, brave guy Reek and Arya to arrive.

In other words, if the author is Ramsey (or Roose) he has to make sure that Jon won't wait for Theon and/or that he won't tell anybody before leaving to imprison and possibly to interrogate... Theon. Because Theon can tell the truth about Bran and Rickon.

If the author is someone else, he's protecting Theon from Jon (Stannis may have promised that to Asha, Mance promised to keep Theon safe from Ramsey and if Theon doesn't meet Jon he may join the NW).

And in any case, just because this random guy Reek - who Jon may trust - is with Arya... Jon may leave before they arrive.

So Jon won't recognize Jane. Something that would harm the Boltons and I believe Mance too. 
I Think that Mance knows that the girl is not Arya. He has seen the true Arya, once. And if that was enough to make him recognize Jon when the 2 met again beyond the wall, there's the chance that Mance is aware that the girl Ramsey wed is a fake.

"to make Jon leave the Wall immediately."

I've read this a hundred times and it is not at all obvious to me that's the case.

I started another thread on this (that no one has responded to yet) but I'll regurgitate it here. Ramsay admits he doesn't have Arya or theon, he just demands that Jon give up Arya, Mel, Felyse, Dalla, the baby,  and Reek, and if he doesn't then he'll attack and eat Jon's heart.

Why would anyone expect this to provoke or incentivize Jon to leave the wall and attack Winterfell?

Arya's not there, so it can't be to rescue her. Military considerations weigh in favor of either staying at and fortifying castle Black, or venturing out just a ways and ambushing Ramsay on the road, not marching hundreds of miles in winter and attacking one of the most impregnable castles in the known world. It's too late to rescue the spearwives, and I don't see rescuing Mance as sufficient cause. Why would anyone think Mance was so important to Jon that he'd abandon his post and betray his vows and go marching off to winterfell?

The whole thing doesn't hang together.

And, without the premise that the pink letter was written to "make Jon leave the wall," then all the speculation that someone besides ramsay wrote the letter falls apart.

I hate to take the fun out of heresy, but I think the pink letter is just what it appears, except that, Ramsay is wrong about Stannis and the battle. he's been fooled. As has been predicted, Manderly turned cloak during the battle, and the freys were wiped out. The Manderlys returned to winterfell with the tale that, while sadly, our friends of frey suffered grievous casualties, the battle was won, and stannis killed, and here is his sword; unfortunately his corpse wasn't recovered, because it's in the lake, or wasn't found, or whatever. That's when Ramsay writes his letter. Soon after, perhaps by the time Jon receives the letter, the Manderlys open the gate for Stannis, and then the Boltons and those loyal to them are slaughtered. Most northerners turn cloak and join Stannis and the manderlys.

Roose and Ramsay, or at least one of them, escape.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, Brother Seamus said:

And, without the premise that the pink letter was written to "make Jon leave the wall," then all the speculation that someone besides ramsay wrote the letter falls apart.

 

Make fun all you like, but that's exactly the effect the letter had on Jon.

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Relevant to the conversation. Ned blamed Lyanna and her wolf blood for her death. 

“Needle wouldn’t break,” Arya said defiantly, but her voice betrayed her words.


“It has a name, does it?” Her father sighed. “Ah, Arya. You have a wildness in you, child. ‘The wolf blood,’ my father used to call it. Lyanna had a touch of it, and my brother Brandon more than a touch. It brought them both to an early grave.” Arya heard sadness in his voice; he did not often speak of his father, or of the brother and sister who had died before she was born. “Lyanna might have carried a sword, if my lord father had allowed it. You remind me of her sometimes. You even look like her.”
“Lyanna was beautiful,” Arya said, startled. Everybody said so. It was not a thing that was ever said of Arya.
“She was,” Eddard Stark agreed, “beautiful, and willful, and dead before her time.”

Which begs the question...what did Lyanna DO? 

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39 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Relevant to the conversation. Ned blamed Lyanna and her wolf blood for her death. 

 

 

Which begs the question...what did Lyanna DO? 

Lyanna was fourteen years old. She probably did not understand the political message of Rhaegar crowning her and took it for real.

Maybe she was not abducted but ran away to Rhaegar on her own?

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3 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Relevant to the conversation. Ned blamed Lyanna and her wolf blood for her death. 

 

 

Which begs the question...what did Lyanna DO? 

1. She was the KotLT, which may well have been a direct lead to being noticed and crowned by Rhaegar.

2. She probably went with Rhaegar willingly, rebelling against her father's decision giving her to Robert.

You may not agree with those - this is heresy after all :P;) - and even if true they undoubtedly are not the full story, but they do answer the question.

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