Heresy 231 Alienarea Strikes Again

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21 hours ago, LynnS said:

If Mance and the wildlings come to Stannis defence;  that may change his mind about the wildlings. Someone like Tormund Giantsbane might change his mind as well.  Hard to say.

 

I don't know what's really going on. My best guess is only that Mance is the author/one of the author.

But why is he doing so? I don't know.  

I am pretty sure that Stannis is awere of the Rattleshirt/Mance ruse, that in the long conversations the two had they came up with a plan that involves Jon. But is Mance 100% loyal? That I don't know... the ASOS chapter I quoted, tells me, he may not be.  That he may have just waited / created an opportunity to get revenge. It's a 50%/50% so to speak.

 

13 hours ago, alienarea said:

Additionally, Ramsay is a sadistic psychopath, but not stupid. He's an experienced hunter, too.

Without the snowstorm and/or Stannis, Ramsay would enjoy hunting and catching Theon and fArya.

Whoever wrote the letter asks for seven people:

fArya

Selyse

Shireen

Melisandre

Val

fAemon

Theon (Reek)

If all those were at Winterfell, what  would they be needed for?

We can argue endlessy about what is true or not when it comes to the events and facts reported by the PL.

However, the reality is that we simply don't and can't know what is true, or how much is true, etc...

So in my opinion, it's... pointless.

But I wrote a post a while back about this list. Just because I think that the list proves one (if not the only) thing we can be sure about (or that we can debate with less assumptions): the "true motive" of the letter. Namenly:

- to make Jon leave the Wall immediately. A motive, consistent with all the main "suspects"

The author asks for children and women. Plus Reek.

And the ultimatum he gives is best ultimatum you can possibly imagine, if you want the Lord Commander of the Night's Watch to abandon his position.... immediatley.

Jon has to chose between harming the NW and surrending women and children (who - beside fArya and Reek) are his guests.

So in reality... he has not choice, but to do something else. To do what he does. Or what he was about to do.

Sure, in theory Jon can choose to harm the NW or to surrend those people (to "a creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women" as the letter just imformed him) . But if you want him to leave the Wall (and to do that as soon as he can and with an army) you cannot make any offer or menace more effective than this one.

Your best chance - if you want him to leave the wall -  is to issue an almost unacceptable ultimatum. The one the author of the PL issued.

And if that's the point... of course the author talks about "Reek" not Theon.

Jon has 0 reason to trust Theon. But as far as Jon knows, Reek is a man/guy who helped his sister escape. So he has not reason to not trust this guy Reek.

Therefore, he may leave (as he was about to do) without waiting for this lovely, honorable, brave guy Reek and Arya to arrive.

In other words, if the author is Ramsey (or Roose) he has to make sure that Jon won't wait for Theon and/or that he won't tell anybody before leaving to imprison and possibly to interrogate... Theon. Because Theon can tell the truth about Bran and Rickon.

If the author is someone else, he's protecting Theon from Jon (Stannis may have promised that to Asha, Mance promised to keep Theon safe from Ramsey and if Theon doesn't meet Jon he may join the NW).

And in any case, just because this random guy Reek - who Jon may trust - is with Arya... Jon may leave before they arrive.

So Jon won't recognize Jane. Something that would harm the Boltons and I believe Mance too. 
I Think that Mance knows that the girl is not Arya. He has seen the true Arya, once. And if that was enough to make him recognize Jon when the 2 met again beyond the wall, there's the chance that Mance is aware that the girl Ramsey wed is a fake.

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20 hours ago, Melifeather said:

I wasn't aware of this "Asha fragment" before. Is it real or is it fan fiction? If it's real, then It's got me very intrigued and I'd like to read it! It would be quite important if Crowsfood's head ended up on a spike. I'm also a confused by Tommen's banner. I don't recall any being at Winterfell. I'm probably misremembering, but I thought there were mostly Frey, Manderly, Bolton, Ryswell, Dustin, and Hother Umber's men at Winterfell?

I won't say that it's fiction. But is it accurate? Who knows. But it's out however and we can speculate about it, with tons of salt. Of course. Just google it... 

About the signature... of course Ramsey is not a trueborn. But the goal is to provoke Jon. That no matter who wrote it.

However, knowing about Jon and Mance backstory... it smells Mance. He was fooled by Jon, because Jon played the "bastard card"...

"And did you see where I was seated, Mance?" He leaned forward. "Did you see where they put the bastard?"
Mance Rayder looked at Jon's face for a long moment. "I think we had best find you a new cloak," the king said, holding out his hand." - ASOS JON I

[alienarea]

1 hour ago, lalt said:

Jon has 0 reason to trust Theon. But as far as Jon knows, Reek is a man/guy who helped his sister escape. So he has not reason to not trust this guy Reek.

Theon did not help Jon's sister to escape. Reek helped fArya. And betrayed the Starks in general, especially Robb. Jon does not have any reason at all to trust him.

[dialt]

5 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Theon did not help Jon's sister to escape. Reek helped fArya. And betrayed the Starks in general, especially Robb. Jon does not have any reason at all to trust him.

That is what we know. Not what Jon reading the letter knows. 

The moment Jon reads the letter, he has no idea who Reek is and he doesn't know that Arya is a fake.

Therefore, this Reek - from his pov - must be somone escaped with and coming to the Wall with his sister.

[LynnS]

2 hours ago, lalt said:

I am pretty sure that Stannis is awere of the Rattleshirt/Mance ruse, that in the long conversations the two had they came up with a plan that involves Jon. But is Mance 100% loyal? That I don't know... the ASOS chapter I quoted, tells me, he may not be.  That he may have just waited / created an opportunity to get revenge. It's a 50%/50% so to speak.

It's possible that Stannis knows about the ploy, but I'm leaning toward not knowing.  Stannis is the type who will cut your fingers off because you are a smuggler; even when the smuggling saves you from starvation.  Mance would be executed by the Watch for desertion but it seems Mel and Stannis are in charge of disposing of Mance/Rattleshirt.

It seems more likely to me that Mel is holding back information on the ploy and hasn't shared everything with Stannis.  I'm not sure that Stannis would go along with a fake execution of Mance/Rattleshirt.  I think he'd insist on the real thing.

So really, Mance's life is still on the line unless he does something that changes Stannis' mind. IMO

2 hours ago, lalt said:

Sure, in theory Jon can choose to harm the NW or to surrend those people (to "a creature who makes cloaks from the skins of women" as the letter just imformed him) . But if you want him to leave the Wall (and to do that as soon as he can and with an army) you cannot make any offer or menace more effective than this one.

I agree.

 

[Melifeather]

4 hours ago, alienarea said:

Theon did not help Jon's sister to escape. Reek helped fArya. And betrayed the Starks in general, especially Robb. Jon does not have any reason at all to trust him.

Reek is too meek. He isn't brave enough to help Jane. When he helped Jane escape, he was most definitely "Theon". Leading up to Jane's escape, Reek/Theon began doing things that Theon would do, and I believe he's the Ghost in Winterfell.

[alienarea]

10 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Reek is too meek. He isn't brave enough to help Jane. When he helped Jane escape, he was most definitely "Theon". Leading up to Jane's escape, Reek/Theon began doing things that Theon would do, and I believe he's the Ghost in Winterfell.

Maybe he's the ghost, maybe not. I speculate he will die in or near Winterfell soon.

We have the same suspects for writing the letter as back then: Ramsay, Mance, Melisandre, Roose, or a combination of them.

What about Stannis or someone from his camp? Maybe one of Team Manderley?

What about Alliser Thorne? If he abandoned his ranging and went to Winterfell, could he make it in time? He would recognize Mance, know about Stannis, and might know how to identify a raven flying to the wall. He would push Jon's buttons to make him leave the watch and have him executed for treason like Janos Slynt.

 

[dialt]

10 hours ago, alienarea said:

We have the same suspects for writing the letter as back then: Ramsay, Mance, Melisandre, Roose, or a combination of them.

What about Stannis or someone from his camp? Maybe one of Team Manderley?

To write the PL, Stannis has to know about Mance and the spearwives. And I find unlikely that he and Mance kept contact while Mance was inside Winterfell.

So in order for them to be the authors, they have to write it after Mance leaves Winterfell and joins Stannis. Possibile. But we cannot say.

I... I tend to think that the PL was written shortly after if not... even before Theon and fArya escaped, if Mance is involved. 

But the question is who’s working with him? Manderly, lady Dustin and/or Rose are my main suspects.

Manderly for obvious reasons.

But there are a few things that make me believe that Mance’s got the help of someone in charge at Winterfell (someone from the Bolton side).

Mance isn’t stupid. And if the plan is the one we are are presented with in the book, it has  2 major problems.

First: Squirrel tells Theon that she will leave fArya’s room through the window. But when they enter the room Theon notices that the window is frozen. And I find hard to believe that Mance and the spearwives didn’t check Squirrel’s way out. So to me she has another (true) plan that she doesn’t reveal to Theon (and if so, she has to exit through the door with nobody complaining) or they’re really dumb. Too much dumb.

Second: the servants clothes. Only lady Frey’s and lady Dustin’s servants are allowed in that room. When Mance gives the signal to start, the spearwives - judging by how quickly they react - are already in possess of the right servants clothes. But there wasn’t a timing planned for the escape. The situation/circumstance presented itself. Apparently. And... to steal those clothes with some time in advance is very risky. People may notice it and it may attract attention. It may jeopardize the plan. Again.. they are incredibly lucky and stupid or someone else (a Bolton - lady Frey is a Bolton - or Lady Dustin) gave them voluntary the clothes.

Finally... I find incredibly suspicious how Roose  behaves that morning.

The evening/night prior he’s terrified when he understands that Manderly wants to get out to kill a bunch of Freys. Theon notices that for the first time since he knew him, something that looks like fear appears in Roose’s eyes.

Why the day after... he gives Manderly exactly what he asked/suggested the day before? Something that terrified him that much?

In isolation, his behavior of that day, is clear. But if compared to that of the day before... to me is suspicious.

[alienarea]

39 minutes ago, lalt said:

To write the PL, Stannis has to know about Mance and the spearwives. And I find unlikely that he and Mance kept contact while Mance was inside Winterfell.

So in order for them to be the authors, they have to write it after Mance leaves Winterfell and joins Stannis. Possibile. But we cannot say.

I... I tend to think that the PL was written shortly after if not... even before Theon and fArya escaped, if Mance is involved. 

But the question is who’s working with him? Manderly, lady Dustin and/or Rose are my main suspects.

Manderly for obvious reasons.

But there are a few things that make me believe that Mance’s got the help of someone in charge at Winterfell (someone from the Bolton side).

Mance isn’t stupid. And if the plan is the one we are are presented with in the book, it has  2 major problems.

First: Squirrel tells Theon that she will leave fArya’s room through the window. But when they enter the room Theon notices that the window is frozen. And I find hard to believe that Mance and the spearwives didn’t check Squirrel’s way out. So to me she has another (true) plan that she doesn’t reveal to Theon (and if so, she has to exit through the door with nobody complaining) or they’re really dumb. Too much dumb.

Second: the servants clothes. Only lady Frey’s and lady Dustin’s servants are allowed in that room. When Mance gives the signal to start, the spearwives - judging by how quickly they react - are already in possess of the right servants clothes. But there wasn’t a timing planned for the escape. The situation/circumstance presented itself. Apparently. And... to steal those clothes with some time in advance is very risky. People may notice it and it may attract attention. It may jeopardize the plan. Again.. they are incredibly lucky and stupid or someone else (a Bolton - lady Frey is a Bolton - or Lady Dustin) gave them voluntary the clothes.

Finally... I find incredibly suspicious how Roose  behaves that morning.

The evening/night prior he’s terrified when he understands that Manderly wants to get out to kill a bunch of Freys. Theon notices that for the first time since he knew him, something that looks like fear appears in Roose’s eyes.

Why the day after... he gives Manderly exactly what he asked/suggested the day before? Something that terrified him that much?

In isolation, his behavior of that day, is clear. But if compared to that of the day before... to me is suspicious.

Very good observations on the spearwives and the clothes.

My thoughts: People in Westeros would not have a lot of spare clothes to change, and even less during Winter in Winterfell. The most simple explanation I can come up with is the spearwives killed the servants and put on their clothes. They were around a few days in Winterfell, checked them out and then acted quick and ruthless. They are spearwives after all. Mance does not know Arya is fake, her escape weakens the legitimization of the Boltons tremendously. Hence the first demand in the letter: I want my bride back.

Side effect of the spearwives killing the servants: if the servants are discovered in the spearwives clothes', would they be identified immediately as the servants? Is the cloak of six skins maybe a cloak made of the skins of the killed servants?

If we accept this ruthless behaviour from Mance and the spearwives, Mance becomes a prime contender for writing the letter after Ramsay rode out to deal with Stannis.

Mance would assume that Ramsay wins, because of Stannis desperate situation. It would be the logical outcome. Three days to get to Stannis camp, one day of battle, three days to get back. Seven days of battle.

Mance is posing as a victorious Ramsay to lure Jon out?

One of the weak points in this are fArya and Theon. Maybe Mance assumes the Umbers outside will get them first, and, not knowing Arya is fake, pass them to Jon?

 

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, lalt said:

Finally... I find incredibly suspicious how Roose  behaves that morning.

The evening/night prior he’s terrified when he understands that Manderly wants to get out to kill a bunch of Freys. Theon notices that for the first time since he knew him, something that looks like fear appears in Roose’s eyes.

Can you give me the text for this.  I find Roose's affect to be rather flat at least after Harrenhall. He states things matter of fact without any emotion, even when he is talking about Ramsey killing Roose's son and the probability that Ramsey will kill him.

Theon sees this:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - The Prince of Winterfell

Here and there a torch burned hungrily, casting its ruddy glow over the faces of the wedding guests. The way the mists threw back the shifting light made their features seem bestial, half-human, twisted. Lord Stout became a mastiff, old Lord Locke a vulture, Whoresbane Umber a gargoyle, Big Walder Frey a fox, Little Walder a red bull, lacking only a ring for his nose. Roose Bolton's own face was a pale grey mask, with two chips of dirty ice where his eyes should be.

 

 

[Melifeather]

13 hours ago, alienarea said:

Maybe he's the ghost, maybe not. I speculate he will die in or near Winterfell soon.

Did you read the Theon chapter from Winds? - (Stupid format put everything in spoiler tags!)

 

Stannis has him in chains somewhere outside Winterfell. I seem to recall three days from Winterfell, and I've also read comments from people that say he's on an island.

12 hours ago, alienarea said:

What about Stannis or someone from his camp? Maybe one of Team Manderley?

I don't think it's Stannis's MO to pretend to be anybody other than Stannis. Again a spoiler from the Theon chapter:

He was very pointedly writing letters while Theon hung on his wall, wherever he was...

12 hours ago, alienarea said:

What about Alliser Thorne? If he abandoned his ranging and went to Winterfell, could he make it in time? He would recognize Mance, know about Stannis, and might know how to identify a raven flying to the wall. He would push Jon's buttons to make him leave the watch and have him executed for treason like Janos Slynt.

Alliser wants to prove to Jon that he can obey orders. He understood that Jon wanted him to refuse to go beyond the Wall so that he could behead him just like Janos. I don't see him going south to Winterfell. There just doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest that as a possibility.

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

My thoughts: People in Westeros would not have a lot of spare clothes to change, and even less during Winter in Winterfell. The most simple explanation I can come up with is the spearwives killed the servants and put on their clothes. They were around a few days in Winterfell, checked them out and then acted quick and ruthless. They are spearwives after all. Mance does not know Arya is fake, her escape weakens the legitimization of the Boltons tremendously. Hence the first demand in the letter: I want my bride back.

If Mance wrote the Pink Letter, he's letting Jon know that fArya escaped.

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

Side effect of the spearwives killing the servants: if the servants are discovered in the spearwives clothes', would they be identified immediately as the servants? Is the cloak of six skins maybe a cloak made of the skins of the killed servants?

The six skins bring to mind Varamyr six skins as well as Mance's glamour that made him look like Rattleshirt. Maybe this is another coded message to let Jon know the spearwives are still concealed?

2 hours ago, LynnS said:

Can you give me the text for this.  I find Roose's affect to be rather flat at least after Harrenhall. He states things matter of fact without any emotion, even when he is talking about Ramsey killing Roose's son and the probability that Ramsey will kill him.

Theon sees this:

 

Here is the text you are looking for:

Quote

 

A Dance with Dragons - A Ghost in Winterfell

"Step out into the yard, you sack of suet, and I'll serve you all the bloody bits that you can stomach," Ser Hosteen said.

Wyman Manderly laughed, but half a dozen of his knights were on their feet at once. It fell to Roger Ryswell and Barbrey Dustin to calm them with quiet words. Roose Bolton said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before—an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

That night the new stable collapsed beneath the weight of the snow that had buried it. Twenty-six horses and two grooms died, crushed beneath the falling roof or smothered under the snows. It took the best part of the morning to dig out the bodies. Lord Bolton appeared briefly in the outer ward to inspect the scene, then ordered the remaining horses brought inside, along with the mounts still tethered in the outer ward. And no sooner had the men finished digging out the dead men and butchering the horses than another corpse was found.

 

 

[alienarea]

9 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

Did you read the Theon chapter from Winds?

 

  Hide contents

 

Stannis has him in chains somewhere outside Winterfell. I see to recall three days from Winterfell, and I've also read comments from people that say he's on an island.

 

I don't think it's Stannis's MO to pretend to be anybody other than Stannis. Again a spoiler from the Theon chapter:

He was very pointedly writing letters while Theon hung on his wall, wherever he was...

Alliser wants to prove to Jon that he can obey orders. He understood that Jon wanted him to refuse to go beyond the Wall so that he could behead him just like Janos. I don't see him going south to Winterfell. There just doesn't seem to be any evidence to suggest that as a possibility.

If Mance wrote the Pink Letter, he's letting Jon know that fArya escaped.

The six skins bring to mind Varamyr six skins as well as Mance's glamour that made him look like Rattleshirt. Maybe this is another coded message to let Jon know the spearwives are still concealed?

Here is the text you are looking for:

 

 

Yes. I considered Stannis camp as "near Winterfell".

The reasons for my speculation:

- I know it's the show but there maybe some truth in it, there Theon dies in Winterfell in the Godswood shortly before Arya kills the Night King. We do not have a Night King in the books, but in the sample chapter Theon is about to get sacrificed near a tree.

- with helping fArya escape and acting like Theon again his arc is complete. It's a trope, but GRRM cannot avoid them all.

[Melifeather]

19 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Yes. I considered Stannis camp as "near Winterfell".

The reasons for my speculation:

- I know it's the show but there maybe some truth in it, there Theon dies in Winterfell in the Godswood shortly before Arya kills the Night King. We do not have a Night King in the books, but in the sample chapter Theon is about to get sacrificed near a tree.

- with helping fArya escape and acting like Theon again his arc is complete. It's a trope, but GRRM cannot avoid them all.

I think we can safely ignore how the mummer's version did it. After all, they only had an outline to work with. If GRRM told D&D that Theon dies in a godswood, that can be interpreted a myriad of ways. In Winds, Asha demands that Stannis execute Theon in a grove of weirwoods, which isn't at Winterfell:

Quote

 

The Winds of Winter - Theon I

"Wise. I am sorry for your mother, but I do not spare the lives of turncloaks. This one, especially. He slew two sons of Eddard Stark. Every northman in my service would abandon me if I showed him any clemency. Your brother must die."

"Then do the deed yourself, Your Grace." The chill in Asha's voice made Theon shiver in his chains. "Take him out across the lake to the islet where the weirwood grows, and strike his head off with that sorcerous sword you bear. That is how Eddard Stark would have done it. Theon slew Lord Eddard's sons. Give him to Lord Eddard's gods. The old gods of the north. Give him to the tree."

And suddenly there came a wild thumping, as the maester's ravens hopped and flapped inside their cages, their black feathers flying as they beat against the bars with loud and raucous caws. "The tree," one squawked, "the tree, the tree," whilst the second screamed only, "Theon, Theon, Theon."

 

 

[dialt]

5 hours ago, LynnS said:

Can you give me the text for this.  I find Roose's affect to be rather flat at least after Harrenhall. He states things matter of fact without any emotion, even when he is talking about Ramsey killing Roose's son and the probability that Ramsey will kill him.

Lord Wyman Manderly slapped his massive belly. "White Harbor does not fear to ride with you, Ser Hosteen. Lead us out, and my knights will ride behind you."
Ser Hosteen turned on the fat man. "Close enough to drive a lance through my back, aye. Where are my kin, Manderly? Tell me that. Your guests, who brought your son back to you."
"His bones, you mean." Manderly speared a chunk of ham with his dagger. "I recall them well. Rhaegar of the round shoulders, with his glib tongue. Bold Ser Jared, so swift to draw his steel. Symond the spymaster, always clinking coins. They brought home Wendel's bones. It was Tywin Lannister who returned Wylis to me, safe and whole, as he had promised. A man of his word, Lord Tywin, Seven save his soul." Lord Wyman popped the meat into his mouth, chewed it noisily, smacked his lips, and said, "The road has many dangers, ser. I gave your brothers guest gifts when we took our leave of White Harbor. We swore we would meet again at the wedding. Many and more bore witness to our parting."
"Many and more?" mocked Aenys Frey. "Or you and yours?"
"What are you suggesting, Frey?" The Lord of White Harbor wiped his mouth with his sleeve. "I do not like your tone, ser. No, not one bloody bit."
"Step out into the yard, you sack of suet, and I'll serve you all the bloody bits that you can stomach," Ser Hosteen said.
Wyman Manderly laughed, but half a dozen of his knights were on their feet at once. It fell to Roger Ryswell and Barbrey Dustin to calm them with quiet words. Roose Bolton said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before—an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

This is the night before. Manderly wants to send out his men with the Freys... to kill them, as Hosteen gets. The tension between them scares Roose. The next morning...

Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."

Sure, a lot happened in between. But overall I get the feeling that Roose took a decision and came up with a plan, meanwhile.

@alienarea well.... I never thought about the chance that the spearwives killed the true servants to steal the clothes. Because it's even more risky. But yeah... maybe they should if nobody is helping them. And that's why I find more likely that someone did. 

Agree about Mors Umber. And that's why I suspect - if the Asha's fragment has any value - that things are not what they look like.

[alienarea]

21 hours ago, lalt said:

Lord Wyman Manderly slapped his massive belly. "White Harbor does not fear to ride with you, Ser Hosteen. Lead us out, and my knights will ride behind you."
Ser Hosteen turned on the fat man. "Close enough to drive a lance through my back, aye. Where are my kin, Manderly? Tell me that. Your guests, who brought your son back to you."
"His bones, you mean." Manderly speared a chunk of ham with his dagger. "I recall them well. Rhaegar of the round shoulders, with his glib tongue. Bold Ser Jared, so swift to draw his steel. Symond the spymaster, always clinking coins. They brought home Wendel's bones. It was Tywin Lannister who returned Wylis to me, safe and whole, as he had promised. A man of his word, Lord Tywin, Seven save his soul." Lord Wyman popped the meat into his mouth, chewed it noisily, smacked his lips, and said, "The road has many dangers, ser. I gave your brothers guest gifts when we took our leave of White Harbor. We swore we would meet again at the wedding. Many and more bore witness to our parting."
"Many and more?" mocked Aenys Frey. "Or you and yours?"
"What are you suggesting, Frey?" The Lord of White Harbor wiped his mouth with his sleeve. "I do not like your tone, ser. No, not one bloody bit."
"Step out into the yard, you sack of suet, and I'll serve you all the bloody bits that you can stomach," Ser Hosteen said.
Wyman Manderly laughed, but half a dozen of his knights were on their feet at once. It fell to Roger Ryswell and Barbrey Dustin to calm them with quiet words. Roose Bolton said nothing at all. But Theon Greyjoy saw a look in his pale eyes that he had never seen before—an uneasiness, even a hint of fear.

This is the night before. Manderly wants to send out his men with the Freys... to kill them, as Hosteen gets. The tension between them scares Roose. The next morning...

Ser Hosteen, assemble your knights and men-at-arms by the main gates. As you are so eager for battle, you shall strike our first blow. Lord Wyman, gather your White Harbor men by the east gate. They shall go forth as well."

Sure, a lot happened in between. But overall I get the feeling that Roose took a decision and came up with a plan, meanwhile.

@alienarea well.... I never thought about the chance that the spearwives killed the true servants to steal the clothes. Because it's even more risky. But yeah... maybe they should if nobody is helping them. And that's why I find more likely that someone did. 

Agree about Mors Umber. And that's why I suspect - if the Asha's fragment has any value - that things are not what they look like.

Tried to google the Asha fragment - that piece from 2016? I'll ignore that.

My expectations for the battle of the frozen lake are these:

- the Freys will arrive when Theon is about to be sacrificed. He's probably tied to the tree and will narrate it. Of course, the Freys fall into Stannis' trap and get butchered badly.

- when the battle seems to be over, the Manderly forces arrive. Maybe Asha narrates this. I'm expecting a fight, and Stannis getting defeated and maybe killed - because I do not trust Manderly.

 

 

[LynnS]

34 minutes ago, alienarea said:

- when the battle seems to be over, the Manderly forces arrive. Maybe Asha narrates this. I'm expecting a fight, and Stannis getting defeated and maybe killed - because I do not trust Manderly.

" When treating with liars, even an honest man must lie."  Manderley to Davos.

I think it more likely that Manderly's men will kill the Freys.

https://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/Wyman_Manderly#The_Winds_of_Winter

 

[Melifeather]

I'm on the fence when it comes to Wyman Manderly's intentions. Should we believe what he told Davos - that he'd declare for Stannis if Davos brings him Rickon and Shaggydog? Or is he an "oily" character? If you believe that the titled chapters have a hidden second story, the Cat of the Canals chapter describes Wayman as an "oily whaler from Ibben". On the surface the description is about a ship moored in Ragman's Harbor, but I believe "ships" are actually locations where the various "plays" or battles and events occurred, while the "mummers" are the people involved. 

Before expanding on Wyman Manderly and why I'm suspicious of him, I think it will make more sense if I provide a shortened explanation for how I'm interpreting the metaphors and allegories.

Braavos has many playhouses with the majority of them on permanently moored ships. Arya notes which playhouse is acting out which play, and describes the mummers. For example, The Blue Lantern presented The Lord of Woeful Countenance, while The Ship "in answer" held Seven Drunken Oarsmen. 

I interpret the Blue Lantern as being the location where Lyanna was abducted, and the Lord of Woeful Countenance is the play about what happened to the Stark family due to her abduction. The Starks are often described with long faces (woeful), which is a common idiom used to describe a facial expression denoting sadness.

I interpret The Ship as being the entirety of the Riverlands, and the play, Seven Drunken Oarsmen perfectly describes the troop movements during Robert's Rebellion and the seven major players: King Aerys, Rhaegar, Tywin Lannister, Hoster Tully, Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, and Robert Baratheon.

If you trace the major battles - Gulltown, Summerhal, Ashford, Stoney Sept, the Trident, and Kings Landing - the troop movements appear "drunken". "Oarsmen" power and move The Ship through the water, and certainly the Rebellion moved around the Riverlands before heading south to Kings Landing. The thing with allegories is that they encompass more than a single metaphor or thought, but they are very effective at helping the reader understand. Just take a look at the definition of allegory:

Allegory: The representation of abstract ideas or principles by characters, figures, or events in narrative, dramatic, or pictorial form. A story, picture, or play employing such representation.

I think we should expect to see multitudes of ideas and events represented, so the seven oarsmen can be seven houses or seven individuals or both, or even a nod to the Faith. Just as "oarsmen" can be men that are financially driven, desire power, or actual geographical movement, "drunken" can be actions not normally taken, not thinking clearly, uninhibited, and still include the actual battles in the Riverlands and in the Trident itself.

So back to Wyman...

Arya noted a small Brazen Monkey and a huge Ibbenese whaler docked in the Ragman’s Harbor. The Ibbenese whaler was said to reek of tar, blood, and whale oil.  The description of being “huge” along with “whale” hints at a connection to Wayman Manderly. Wayman “reeks”, because he’s allied with Roose and Ramsay Bolton - crew members of the Brazen Monkey. The “blood” and “tar” are in reference to the children Ramsay murdered and tarred to take the places of Bran and Rickon. 

"Oil" has many definitions other than the more common ones for lubricants or food substances. You can oil something to make a surface smoother, meaning Wyman could simply be lying or pretending to be allies with the Boltons and Freys to make his alliances go smoother. Oil can also refer to a bribe (the attorney tried to oil the judge) or to give a tip (oil the porter's palm). Certainly his offer of allegiance to Davos if he would find Rickon could be seen as a type of bribe or tip. "Oily" can also have various definitions, among them being excessively suave or ingratiating, flatteringly servile, obsequious, or unctuous. "Obsequious" means to be obedient, attentive, submissive, compliant, or ingratiating servile in behavior. "Unctuous" means to be insincere, self-serving, or smugly agreeable, which to me is the intended meaning behind the "oily" description. 

The latter "oily" description doesn't appear to cast Wyman as Rickon's savior, but his redemption may be found if we consider the location: the "Ragman's Harbor". A short aside how "harbors" differ from "ships". I believe they are still specific locations, but the allegory contains references to specific actions carried out by multiple characters. 

I believe GRRM has drawn inspiration from the DC Comic's hero, "Ragman" when he named the Ragman's Harbor. Ragman is a Jewish vigilante in Gotham City who wears the mystical Suit of Souls. This costume allows him to take the souls of the guilty, and summon their strengths and abilities in combat. Through his actions, their evil deeds are redeemed and they are slowly allowed to ascend to Heaven. The hooded Ghost in Winterfell seems to be based on Ragman. I happen to believe Theon is the hooded murderer. I think when he puts on the hooded cloak, he's drawing on the strengths and abilities of Theon and the ironborn while maintaining his Reek identity when he takes the cloak off. He's so fractured that his personality has split and he's not even aware when he's "Theon".

The location of Ibben as being an island in the Shivering Sea is a very apt metaphor for the Manderlys. The north is often described as a sea, and the transplanted Manderlys are an island of Andals amongst the northmen. At the end of Dance, Winterfell was experiencing an extreme blizzard. The “sea” has swept down from beyond the Wall and is freezing these mermen.

The other ship with the oily whaler was called the Brazen Monkey. "Brazen" means to be bold and without shame. It can also mean to be made of brass, which is probably how it is connected to monkeys - as in the colloquial expression, “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” The brass monkeys themselves are the famous three wise monkeys of see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil. Maybe Theon is the third monkey? The three monkeys could also be the Boltons, Freys, and Manderlys - the three Houses currently holed up at Winterfell.

 

[alienarea]

1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

I'm on the fence when it comes to Wyman Manderly's intentions. Should we believe what he told Davos - that he'd declare for Stannis if Davos brings him Rickon and Shaggydog? Or is he an "oily" character? If you believe that the titled chapters have a hidden second story, the Cat of the Canals chapter describes Wayman as an "oily whaler from Ibben". On the surface the description is about a ship moored in Ragman's Harbor, but I believe "ships" are actually locations where the various "plays" or battles and events occurred, while the "mummers" are the people involved. 

Before expanding on Wyman Manderly and why I'm suspicious of him, I think it will make more sense if I provide a shortened explanation for how I'm interpreting the metaphors and allegories.

Braavos has many playhouses with the majority of them on permanently moored ships. Arya notes which playhouse is acting out which play, and describes the mummers. For example, The Blue Lantern presented The Lord of Woeful Countenance, while The Ship "in answer" held Seven Drunken Oarsmen. 

I interpret the Blue Lantern as being the location where Lyanna was abducted, and the Lord of Woeful Countenance is the play about what happened to the Stark family due to her abduction. The Starks are often described with long faces (woeful), which is a common idiom used to describe a facial expression denoting sadness.

I interpret The Ship as being the entirety of the Riverlands, and the play, Seven Drunken Oarsmen perfectly describes the troop movements during Robert's Rebellion and the seven major players: King Aerys, Rhaegar, Tywin Lannister, Hoster Tully, Ned Stark, Jon Arryn, and Robert Baratheon.

If you trace the major battles - Gulltown, Summerhal, Ashford, Stoney Sept, the Trident, and Kings Landing - the troop movements appear "drunken". "Oarsmen" power and move The Ship through the water, and certainly the Rebellion moved around the Riverlands before heading south to Kings Landing. The thing with allegories is that they encompass more than a single metaphor or thought, but they are very effective at helping the reader understand. Just take a look at the definition of allegory:

Allegory: The representation of abstract ideas or principles by characters, figures, or events in narrative, dramatic, or pictorial form. A story, picture, or play employing such representation.

I think we should expect to see multitudes of ideas and events represented, so the seven oarsmen can be seven houses or seven individuals or both, or even a nod to the Faith. Just as "oarsmen" can be men that are financially driven, desire power, or actual geographical movement, "drunken" can be actions not normally taken, not thinking clearly, uninhibited, and still include the actual battles in the Riverlands and in the Trident itself.

So back to Wyman...

Arya noted a small Brazen Monkey and a huge Ibbenese whaler docked in the Ragman’s Harbor. The Ibbenese whaler was said to reek of tar, blood, and whale oil.  The description of being “huge” along with “whale” hints at a connection to Wayman Manderly. Wayman “reeks”, because he’s allied with Roose and Ramsay Bolton - crew members of the Brazen Monkey. The “blood” and “tar” are in reference to the children Ramsay murdered and tarred to take the places of Bran and Rickon. 

"Oil" has many definitions other than the more common ones for lubricants or food substances. You can oil something to make a surface smoother, meaning Wyman could simply be lying or pretending to be allies with the Boltons and Freys to make his alliances go smoother. Oil can also refer to a bribe (the attorney tried to oil the judge) or to give a tip (oil the porter's palm). Certainly his offer of allegiance to Davos if he would find Rickon could be seen as a type of bribe or tip. "Oily" can also have various definitions, among them being excessively suave or ingratiating, flatteringly servile, obsequious, or unctuous. "Obsequious" means to be obedient, attentive, submissive, compliant, or ingratiating servile in behavior. "Unctuous" means to be insincere, self-serving, or smugly agreeable, which to me is the intended meaning behind the "oily" description. 

The latter "oily" description doesn't appear to cast Wyman as Rickon's savior, but his redemption may be found if we consider the location: the "Ragman's Harbor". A short aside how "harbors" differ from "ships". I believe they are still specific locations, but the allegory contains references to specific actions carried out by multiple characters. 

I believe GRRM has drawn inspiration from the DC Comic's hero, "Ragman" when he named the Ragman's Harbor. Ragman is a Jewish vigilante in Gotham City who wears the mystical Suit of Souls. This costume allows him to take the souls of the guilty, and summon their strengths and abilities in combat. Through his actions, their evil deeds are redeemed and they are slowly allowed to ascend to Heaven. The hooded Ghost in Winterfell seems to be based on Ragman. I happen to believe Theon is the hooded murderer. I think when he puts on the hooded cloak, he's drawing on the strengths and abilities of Theon and the ironborn while maintaining his Reek identity when he takes the cloak off. He's so fractured that his personality has split and he's not even aware when he's "Theon".

The location of Ibben as being an island in the Shivering Sea is a very apt metaphor for the Manderlys. The north is often described as a sea, and the transplanted Manderlys are an island of Andals amongst the northmen. At the end of Dance, Winterfell was experiencing an extreme blizzard. The “sea” has swept down from beyond the Wall and is freezing these mermen.

The other ship with the oily whaler was called the Brazen Monkey. "Brazen" means to be bold and without shame. It can also mean to be made of brass, which is probably how it is connected to monkeys - as in the colloquial expression, “cold enough to freeze the balls off a brass monkey.” The brass monkeys themselves are the famous three wise monkeys of see no evil, hear no evil, and speak no evil. Maybe Theon is the third monkey? The three monkeys could also be the Boltons, Freys, and Manderlys - the three Houses currently holed up at Winterfell.

 

I'm always amazed by your analysis.

We know that Manderly can be cunning and brutal - Frey pies - and he only needs Shaggydog's pelt to present some prepared boy as Rickon Stark, heir to Winterfell.

Has Manderly brought a raven or two from White Harbor?

He had a chance to meet with Mance in Winterfell, and could have helped with his ploy (servants clothes, maybe?). In case he deals with Stannis and maybe saves Theon from execution, he could have all the information needed to write the pink letter.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

I'm always amazed by your analysis.

Thank you for your kind words. Most people think my analysis is fabricated and baseless. I am amazed that GRRM can write this way. I also think it's the reason why it takes him so long. It's so sophisticated, complex, and clever. You can just as easily read the story "straight" and enjoy it that way, but if you dig in and analyze the allegories, it expands understanding.

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

We know that Manderly can be cunning and brutal - Frey pies - and he only needs Shaggydog's pelt to present some prepared boy as Rickon Stark, heir to Winterfell.

I don't think he would harm Rickon even if his motives turn out to be self-serving. Rickon is still a small boy. Wyman could easily control the north through Rickon as his "protector" much as Jon Arryn "mentored" Ned and Robert.

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Has Manderly brought a raven or two from White Harbor?

I would suspect so. Although maybe the castle maesters are the only ones that take possession of ravens and send them back and forth?

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

He had a chance to meet with Mance in Winterfell, and could have helped with his ploy (servants clothes, maybe?). In case he deals with Stannis and maybe saves Theon from execution, he could have all the information needed to write the pink letter.

Wayman does have Wex's "words" to prove Bran and Rickon are not dead and in theory could help Theon - IF he wanted to. And I'm sure he wouldn't just do it out of the goodness of his heart. There'd need to be a benefit to himself to stick his neck out. Theon still killed two little boys - possibly his own bastards - so he's still a murderer of innocents. He deserves to die - even Theon believes that - but he also thinks he's an instrument of the old gods, and that's why I believe he was the Ghost in Winterfell. If he's released - and that's a big IF - he'll continue to be a vigilante like Ragman.

[alienarea]

3 hours ago, Melifeather said:

Thank you for your kind words. Most people think my analysis is fabricated and baseless. I am amazed that GRRM can write this way. I also think it's the reason why it takes him so long. It's so sophisticated, complex, and clever. You can just as easily read the story "straight" and enjoy it that way, but if you dig in and analyze the allegories, it expands understanding.

I don't think he would harm Rickon even if his motives turn out to be self-serving. Rickon is still a small boy. Wyman could easily control the north through Rickon as his "protector" much as Jon Arryn "mentored" Ned and Robert.

I would suspect so. Although maybe the castle maesters are the only ones that take possession of ravens and send them back and forth?

Wayman does have Wex's "words" to prove Bran and Rickon are not dead and in theory could help Theon - IF he wanted to. And I'm sure he wouldn't just do it out of the goodness of his heart. There'd need to be a benefit to himself to stick his neck out. Theon still killed two little boys - possibly his own bastards - so he's still a murderer of innocents. He deserves to die - even Theon believes that - but he also thinks he's an instrument of the old gods, and that's why I believe he was the Ghost in Winterfell. If he's released - and that's a big IF - he'll continue to be a vigilante like Ragman.

I think I posted that some years ago before the show had Ramsay vs Jon - Theon was a skilled archer and IIRC GRRM stated he has enough fingers left, he should be the one to take out Ramsay.