Covid-19 #14 - Are We Done Yet?

[Fragile Bird]

Boy, the other thread closed hours ago! Are we done then?

Lol, just kidding!

[Paladin of Ice]

Aw, I thought I might get to name this thread. I was going to call it "COVID-19: Buy 1 wave, get the second free".

In any case, first here's an article I talked about posting in the prior thread in response to this post from Werthead:

Quote

Interesting article on prolonged cases of COVID-19, particularly people who have had recurring symptoms for more than 60 days without abatement.

On 5/15/2020 at 2:43 PM, Paladin of Ice said:

I read a very similar story in the Washington Post last weekend about a nurse in western N.Y. who has been dealing with a case that has gone on for 8 weeks, including putting her on life support, her fever finally breaking long enough to go home and then being back in the hospital a day or two later because it came roaring back.

I’ll try to remember to post it when I get home, it was pretty heartbreaking. Makes me all the more nervous about a very slight, very occasional cough I’ve been feeling.

Here's an oral account of what it's like to have COVID-19 for 8 weeks. As per Wert's article, this is currently estimated to be the reaction for around 5% or so of people who get infected.

Quote

I’ve hardly moved from this couch in weeks, but right now my heart rate monitor says I’m at 132. That’s double my normal. That’s like if I’m climbing a mountain. How come? Nobody knows. Nobody ever knows. And why has my fever been spiking again? Do I need to go back to the ER? I’m on week six of this crap, and I still don’t know if I’m getting better or worse, but people want to act like the threat is behind us?

Wait, no, that’s not right. This is actually week eight for me. I started getting symptoms right before New York shut down. I mix up my dates. My mind is all foggy. I’ve been a nurse for 30 years, and now I can’t even remember if my last Tylenol was five minutes or five hours ago. It feels like electricity is burning through my spine, and nobody can tell me why. It’s like I’m sucking air through a straw. When I stand up, my ears start ringing until dizziness forces me back down. Every symptom is a whole new mystery. This virus is unpredictable and so, so violent.

I’m up to 140 now. See? It’s relentless. How long can a heart last like this? The palpitations come a few times every hour and go on for a minute or more. It’s just banging, banging, banging, banging.

It hurts too much to talk. I’ll try again later. I have to lie down and breathe through it. That’s what they tell me to do.

My heart rate is back down now to 105. That’s nothing to celebrate. That’s still considered abnormal, but it’s typical now for me.

I didn’t use to be like this. I’m healthy. I’m a vegetarian. I’m only 52. I’ve got grown kids in the military and a teenager at home, and we hike and kayak. I’m a positive, hard-charging person. Maybe I got it at the VA hospital where I work, but we didn’t have any confirmed cases yet. Or my son might have had an exposure and given it to me. Who knows? It’s one more mystery. I didn’t even notice I was sick until another nurse asked why I was coughing. I figured it was allergies. Take some Zyrtec and get on with it. Hardly anybody here in Syracuse had covid at that point. What were the odds?

Then, after I tested positive, I thought I’d get a mild case. I told my husband: “Relax. I’m fine.” I don’t have diabetes. I don’t have hypertension, COPD or anything like that. I thought I could stay home, take care of myself and be back at work in a few weeks.

Right away I started running a temperature of 103, and the Tylenol couldn’t control it. I was shaking and cursing all day in bed, and the symptoms spread from there. I was head-to-toe exhausted. I wanted the whole world to let me alone. I had equipment at home from my nursing work, and I started checking my vitals and saw my blood pressure shooting up. I’ve never had that. I’d get up to shower and start gasping for air. My son was also covid-positive, and he ran a high fever and recovered within a week while I kept on getting worse. Maybe because I’m older? Or because I used to be a smoker? You can’t get a definitive answer on anything with this. I started coughing to the point of throwing up. I coughed until I was incontinent. My lips were chapped from dehydration. I had headaches. Migraines. Heartburn. Rashes. I lost 16 pounds in the first few weeks. I would lie down at night after taking melatonin and Benadryl, soaked in sweat and terrified of what might be coming next. What if I fall asleep and stop breathing? More Benadryl. More melatonin. Maybe try a Xanax. I’d lie there for hours but it was nonstop insomnia. I’d turn the TV to Lifetime for a distraction, but I couldn’t make sense of what they were saying.

One day, my son needed money to buy groceries. I said I’d give him $80, but I couldn’t count it out. I couldn’t do the math. I handed him $50, then $70. I asked him: “Is this really happening right now or is this a hallucination?” He took the cash and counted it himself. He begged me to get help.

I went to urgent care. The X-rays showed pneumonia, so they told me to go to the ER. I didn’t want to risk a secondary infection at the hospital, and I knew they didn’t have any magic treatment for this virus, but I couldn’t take care of myself. There wasn’t any choice. I wrote down my end-of-life wishes, and I had my son drop me at the ER.

...

I’m not sure I can handle it again if I have to go back to the hospital. That first stay lasted 10 days, or at least that’s what they told me. I couldn’t tell days apart. I had a little glass isolation room with a curtain they kept closed. There was nothing to see out the window except a parking garage across the street. I couldn’t have visitors, and most of the doctors and nurses were afraid to stay in the room. It was okay. I was too sick to talk and too scared to feel lonely. I appreciate what they did. They were honest about what they didn’t know, and they tried. They kept throwing stuff at the wall to see what might stick.

They gave me a malaria drug, but it did absolutely nothing. They gave me an antibiotic for pneumonia, but I still couldn’t breathe without 15 liters of oxygen. They tried vitamin C, magnesium, shots of blood thinner, baby aspirin, Tums, multivitamins, Xanax, cough syrup with codeine. It was like fixing a car when you don’t know what’s broken. They gave me inhalers and breathing exercises to do every hour, but my oxygen level kept dropping. They wanted to put me on life support, but I was afraid I’d never come off. The doctor came in and said: “We have a team ready to revive you in case you start to code. We’re going to watch you closely.” Watching was all anybody could do. Then, one morning, my fever started to go down. Nobody knew why that happened either. But it stayed down for 36 hours, and they said I could go home.

Now I’ve got my oxygen on a long extension cord. I can make it to the kitchen or the bathroom if I’m feeling good, but usually I stay here in the den. My husband never caught it, so we’re staying apart. He works as a manager at Wegmans, and if he got sick, we might be out on the street. The $1,200 stimulus went to rent and hospital co-pays, and now we’re burning through our savings. I try not to think about it. I watch the news and check my vitals, but they’re always bad. My family stands in the doorway to visit sometimes, and other people text or call. “Are you feeling better yet?” It’s like they’re becoming impatient. They want to feel safe going out. We managed to buckle down for a while, but now it’s getting nice outside, and people need to work. The deniers and the protesters are coming out. One of my relatives went on Facebook and wrote that this whole virus is overblown, or maybe even a hoax. People want to minimize.

“Are you better yet? Why aren’t you better yet?”

I don’t know. I don’t know anything. My brain keeps racing with unanswered questions. Are my lungs scarred? Is my heart damaged? Can I get sick again? Will I be hiking the Adirondacks this summer or lugging this oxygen tank from the den to the bathroom for the rest of my life?

I hate this virus. It’s been two months of uncertainty and I don’t think I can take any more. Why are my legs burning? Why is my skin so hot? I need answers. I need help.

Some other news:

As so often happens with rapid testing, it looks like the Abbott test for the Coronavirus is trash. Abbott admits to a 15-20% false negative rate, (test will come read as negative even if you're positive) the FDA is saying that in reality that might be almost 50%.

Quote

The Food and Drug Administration is cautioning the public about the reliability of a widely used rapid test for the coronavirus. The test, made by Abbott Laboratories, has been linked with inaccurate results that could falsely reassure patients that they are not infected with the virus.

The Trump administration has promoted the test as a key factor in controlling the epidemic in the U.S., and it's used for daily testing at the White House.

As first reported on NPR, as many as 15 to 20 out of every 100 tests may produce falsely negative results. A study released this week indicated that the test could be missing as many as 48% of infections.

The FDA issued the alert on the Abbott test "in the spirit of transparency." In a press release, the agency said it's investigating whether the false-negative results could be connected to the type of swab used in the test or the material the samples are stored in for transport.

It also cautions that "any negative test results that are not consistent with a patient's clinical signs and symptoms or necessary for patient management should be confirmed with another test."

"We are still evaluating the information about inaccurate results and are in direct communications with Abbott about this important issue," said Dr. Tim Stenzel, director of the FDA's Office of In Vitro Diagnostics and Radiological Health. "We will continue to study the data available and are working with the company to create additional mechanisms for studying the test."

Something to be aware of with how many companies and labs are coming up with their own tests while the FDA and CDC have almost entirely stopped trying to regulate anything because regulations suck, according to Republicans. I know everyone at my lab's sub-department was deriding our own medical group's serum antibody test as a shameless money grab.

Eric Trump revived his family's tradition of calling the disease a hoax, saying Democrats invented it to hurt his father and nobody will ever talk about it again after election day. The Biden campaign promptly slammed him for it.

Since I can't find a transcript, here's a link to an audio story on NPR about the vaccine trial that made the news yesterday. Long story short, it's just an early step on a long journey for vaccine development, and the information released is shockingly light on details. (As just one example, did it generate similar levels of antibody response in the 8 people who developed antibodies after taking it, or did the response level vary? Because that may make a big difference in whether a person becomes immune and how effective the immune system's response is.)

[Fragile Bird]

My heart goes out to that nurse.

[Winterfell is Burning]

Brazil for the first time recorded more than a thousand deaths in a day, 1.179 to be more precise, bringing the number of deaths to 17.971. Keep in mind that the number of subnotifications is huge due to lack of available testing and the real number is likely, much, much bigger, perhaps even 10 times that amount.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Since I can't find a transcript, here's a link to an audio story on NPR about the vaccine trial that made the news yesterday. Long story short, it's just an early step on a long journey for vaccine development, and the information released is shockingly light on details. (As just one example, did it generate similar levels of antibody response in the 8 people who developed antibodies after taking it, or did the response level vary? Because that may make a big difference in whether a person becomes immune and how effective the immune system's response is.)

Yeah, I'm definitely not convinced that we're any closer on the vaccine front. All we know so far is that it is apparently safe for the 8 healthy individuals who volunteered for the study (and apparently they were given different doses containing more or less of the viral load, and the participants who received a higher dose reported symptoms such as fever and malaise - I'm basing this off of a CNN interview with one of the study participants so don't have a link).

We especially don't know how it will affect people considered to be high-risk. So I'm continuing to be skeptical until we get a wider study.

[Jeor]

Yes, here's another skeptical story about the "promising" results from the Moderna vaccine. I think the two main points they make are (1) very small sample size, and (2) antibody levels vary enormously among people who have recovered, so it's hard to know how these antibody levels really stack up or how "durable" they are.

Not really surprising that they'd want to pump the stock price, but a bit disturbing how the whole S&P500 rockets upwards a few percent based on very sketchy information. A lot of health companies must be engaging in various forms of market manipulation but in the current environment they'll probably get away with it.

[rotting sea cow]

17 hours ago, Paladin of Ice said:

Here's an oral account of what it's like to have COVID-19 for 8 weeks. As per Wert's article, this is currently estimated to be the reaction for around 5% or so of people who get infected.

This disease is crazy. There are lots of similar accounts in the interwebs of people feeling miserably for weeks and there are others of people hardly having a bad night. People going to bed earlier than usual to not wake up again. People with light symptoms for weeks. People almost comatose for few days and then everything fine.  People with only neurological symptoms. Etc.  In reddit you can find this thread of people describing their experiences. I cannot make sense of them.  It is like there is no pattern at all.

I heard from someone who is doing social work during this crisis and he is equally astounded. A household where everyone is infected down to the cat and the dog. A similar household a few streets away where only one is infected and the virus skips even the grandmother. WTF?

 

[Rippounet]

Well if you want to be confused, here are some articles about teenagers whose only Covid-19 symptoms are chilblains:

https://www.belgiandermatology.be/fr/announcements/chilblains-and-covid-19

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32386460/

I also read testicular pain might be a possible symptom (though I have doubts about the source).

So yeah, this disease is fucking nuts.

What annoys me is that the media is not covering this very well imho, focusing instead on "big" figures: infections & deaths.
Now I get that nobody wants a panic, but if we don't know how weird this disease can be, how can we self-diagnose properly?

[Paladin of Ice]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

This disease is crazy. There are lots of similar accounts in the interwebs of people feeling miserably for weeks and there are others of people hardly having a bad night. People going to bed earlier than usual to not wake up again. People with light symptoms for weeks. People almost comatose for few days and then everything fine.  People with only neurological symptoms. Etc.  In reddit you can find this thread of people describing their experiences. I cannot make sense of them.  It is like there is no pattern at all.

I heard from someone who is doing social work during this crisis and he is equally astounded. A household where everyone is infected down to the cat and the dog. A similar household a few streets away where only one is infected and the virus skips even the grandmother. WTF?

 

One very preliminary guess that I heard was that the severity of the symptoms might have to do with whether they’ve ever had one of the more common Coronaviruses, as having had them might give the immune system a better response to the virus and stop the most extreme reactions.

It’s reasonable enough, but pure speculation at this point.

[rotting sea cow]

12 hours ago, Jeor said:

Yes, here's another skeptical story about the "promising" results from the Moderna vaccine. I think the two main points they make are (1) very small sample size, and (2) antibody levels vary enormously among people who have recovered, so it's hard to know how these antibody levels really stack up or how "durable" they are.

Not really surprising that they'd want to pump the stock price, but a bit disturbing how the whole S&P500 rockets upwards a few percent based on very sketchy information. A lot of health companies must be engaging in various forms of market manipulation but in the current environment they'll probably get away with it.

I actually don't understand how the markets are still not going in full panic mode. They got that big drop towards the end of march but that was it, whilst millions of jobs around the world have been annihilated, whole economic sectors have completely stop functioning,  trade has gotten more complicated than ever,  governments are spending reserves after reserves, where there is no clear way out of the crisis. I kind of feel they are trying to hold for as long as possible, maybe as a tacit agreement to not make thing worse, but for how long?

[rotting sea cow]

30 minutes ago, Paladin of Ice said:

One very preliminary guess that I heard was that the severity of the symptoms might have to do with whether they’ve ever had one of the more common Coronaviruses, as having had them might give the immune system a better response to the virus and stop the most extreme reactions.

It’s reasonable enough, but pure speculation at this point.

There was an article that actually goes in that direction.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

So, yes, it is possible that some people have immunity due to the common cold. However almost immediately some people speculated the opposite. It might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease through some Antibody-dependent enhancement. I cannot say myself. I don't have the knowledge, but that also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.

 

[Fez]

26 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

I actually don't understand how the markets are still not going in full panic mode. They got that big drop towards the end of march but that was it, whilst millions of jobs around the world have been annihilated, whole economic sectors have completely stop functioning,  trade has gotten more complicated than ever,  governments are spending reserves after reserves, where there is no clear way out of the crisis. I kind of feel they are trying to hold for as long as possible, maybe as a tacit agreement to not make thing worse, but for how long?

It sorta makes sense, but only if they are correct that a vaccine will be available within a year or two. The stimulus, both in the US and elsewhere, has been massive. So far there hasn't been the demand shock you'd expect from all the job losses, because of all the UI/paycheck replacement programs various countries have implemented. And the supply shock has been muted because of all the money flowing directly to corporations as well.

As Josh Barro lays out, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/05/why-is-the-stock-market-rising-if-the-economy-is-so-bad.html, investors are just hoping for a known end date to all this. It doesn't matter if that date is pretty far out, so long as it's known, they can begin investing in ventures for after that. And right now there's so much government money flowing around that they can afford to wait.

But once the tap starts getting cut off, like when the extra UI benefits in the US in July, a true demand shock will get started and there will be a real collapse. Unless there's a known end date by then, or an expectation that the government tap will start flowing once more.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

It sorta makes sense, but only if they are correct that a vaccine will be available within a year or two. The stimulus, both in the US and elsewhere, has been massive. So far there hasn't been the demand shock you'd expect from all the job losses, because of all the UI/paycheck replacement programs various countries have implemented. And the supply shock has been muted because of all the money flowing directly to corporations as well.

As Josh Barro lays out, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/05/why-is-the-stock-market-rising-if-the-economy-is-so-bad.html, investors are just hoping for a known end date to all this. It doesn't matter if that date is pretty far out, so long as it's known, they can begin investing in ventures for after that. And right now there's so much government money flowing around that they can afford to wait.

But once the tap starts getting cut off, like when the extra UI benefits in the US in July, a true demand shock will get started and there will be a real collapse. Unless there's a known end date by then, or an expectation that the government tap will start flowing once more.

Tacking on to this, the Federal Reserve as part of its monetary stimulus has begun buying junk bonds, so the risk of massive corporate debt defaults has been averted for now, and has indicated that it has more tools at its disposal to bring to bear. 

The Fed's actions appear to have also put a floor under oil prices, which is having a positive market effect.

The biggest remaining stumbling blocks are the deflationary effects of the massive number of job losses, the uncertainty around when or if a vaccine will be delivered, and whether Congress and Trump can get their shit together to keep the fiscal stimulus tap flowing. That's the biggest concern right now, as Republicans have indicated they may not pass another stimulus measure until July, if it even happens at all.

[Paladin of Ice]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

There was an article that actually goes in that direction.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

So, yes, it is possible that some people have immunity due to the common cold. However almost immediately some people speculated the opposite. It might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease through some Antibody-dependent enhancement. I cannot say myself. I don't have the knowledge, but that also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.

 

I had that latter thought about the disease enhancement too, but I’m also nowhere near qualified to speculate about that. It’s way above my pay grade and level of knowledge. And if there’s one thing I learned is an absolute truth in healthcare, it’s that if you haven’t mastered a subject, then you don’t speculate, (or if you do, only do it with people who will get it and add a ton of caveats) don’t give advice, and don’t assume anything.

The trick is having the awareness to know when your knowledge is surface level and you might be speculating about advanced level stuff.

[Mudguard]

2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There was an article that actually goes in that direction.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

So, yes, it is possible that some people have immunity due to the common cold. However almost immediately some people speculated the opposite. It might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease through some Antibody-dependent enhancement. I cannot say myself. I don't have the knowledge, but that also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.

 

I wasn't able to respond to your question regarding antibody enhancement in the previous thread, so I'm glad you brought it up again.  I was not previously familiar with this concept, which is very interesting.  My first job after college was working on Merck's HIV vaccine (I was just a small cog in a big wheel), which ultimately failed in phase 3 clinical trials.  In the phase 2 clinical trials, they showed that subjects given the vaccine developed a robust antibody response to the antigens encoded by the DNA delivered by the vaccine (naked DNA prime followed after some time by adenovirus encoding HIV antigens).  However, the phase 3 trials were stopped early because the patients that received the vaccine were getting infected with HIV at a higher rate than the control group.  I had no idea why at the time this would occur.  I had left Merck by this time, so I didn't follow up.  This antibody-dependent enhancement of infection provides a possible explanation of what happened with Merck's HIV vaccine.

Whether that will happen with one of the early lead coronavirus vaccines under development is unknown.  Moderna's science by press release approach right now makes me very wary.  I wonder whether they are going to raise a round of money by issuing new shares at the currently inflated price.  The data that they presented is very limited, and only really establishes that it's worth it to go to the next phase.  I'm going to remain skeptical of all the vaccines until they present the results of phase 3 clinical studies.

[Fragile Bird]

I gather that the reason Moderna pretty well had to release the information was because on Friday or Saturday Trump held a WH meeting with drug companies and the CEO of the company Moderna is teamed with, Lonza, announced he had seen trial results that convinced him there would be a vaccine by year end. That pretty well forced Moderna's hand.

I wonder if he had mentioned this in the private meeting and then Trump jumped on it and pushed it.

[Mudguard]

So it turns out Moderna is going to raise more money by issuing new stock to the public.  Apparently they announced the new stock offering the same day as the press release for results of the 8 patients.

Quote

Money from the largest-ever biotech IPO, funding from an international outbreak preparedness group and an award from the U.S. government are apparently still not enough for Moderna, a front-runner in the race for an effective COVID-19 vaccine.

The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech aims to raise $1.34 billion in a public stock offering, it said Monday. The company plans to primarily use the proceeds to fund manufacturing and distribution of mRNA-1273, its mRNA vaccine candidate against the novel coronavirus.

The announcement came on the same day Moderna offered an early peek into results from a phase 1 test in eight individuals. The promising interim data jacked up its stock price by 20%. The new stock offering, at $76 apiece, represents a 5% discount to Moderna’s closing price Monday.

 

[Mudguard]

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There was an article that actually goes in that direction.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity#

So, yes, it is possible that some people have immunity due to the common cold. However almost immediately some people speculated the opposite. It might be that the common coronaviruses cold is not conferring immunity but enhancing the disease through some Antibody-dependent enhancement. I cannot say myself. I don't have the knowledge, but that also brought to my mind a plot made by the anti-vaxxer crew that showed that the covid deaths per million rates are correlated with influenza vaccination rates. I don't have the plot at hand, but the numbers seemed right to me.

 

One other thing, I don't see how influenza vaccination would cause antibody dependent enhancement of a coronavirus infection.  The only way that could happen is if anti-influenza antibodies could somehow also cross-react and bind to coronavirus.  As far as I know, this has not been shown yet.  I would be skeptical of any plots generated by a random anti-vaxxer.  Show me a study that anti-influenza antibodies can bind to coronavirus and then I would seriously consider it.  

Validation of many of the coronavirus antibody tests haven't shown cross-reactivity from blood taken from patients who had influenza, so I'm doubtful that influenza vaccination would cause antibody dependent enhancement.

[rotting sea cow]

3 hours ago, Fez said:

 

As Josh Barro lays out, https://nymag.com/intelligencer/amp/2020/05/why-is-the-stock-market-rising-if-the-economy-is-so-bad.html, investors are just hoping for a known end date to all this. It doesn't matter if that date is pretty far out, so long as it's known, they can begin investing in ventures for after that. And right now there's so much government money flowing around that they can afford to wait.

 

Thanks. This is excellent

1 hour ago, Mudguard said:

I wasn't able to respond to your question regarding antibody enhancement in the previous thread, so I'm glad you brought it up again.  I was not previously familiar with this concept, which is very interesting.  My first job after college was working on Merck's HIV vaccine (I was just a small cog in a big wheel), which ultimately failed in phase 3 clinical trials.  In the phase 2 clinical trials, they showed that subjects given the vaccine developed a robust antibody response to the antigens encoded by the DNA delivered by the vaccine (naked DNA prime followed after some time by adenovirus encoding HIV antigens).  However, the phase 3 trials were stopped early because the patients that received the vaccine were getting infected with HIV at a higher rate than the control group.  I had no idea why at the time this would occur.  I had left Merck by this time, so I didn't follow up.  This antibody-dependent enhancement of infection provides a possible explanation of what happened with Merck's HIV vaccine.

Thanks for your answer and sharing your experiences. Just to be clear. I was quoting people more knowledgeable than myself. They just speculated than instead of normal colds having a protective effect, the opposite might be also possible.

1 hour ago, Mudguard said:

One other thing, I don't see how influenza vaccination would cause antibody dependent enhancement of a coronavirus infection.  The only way that could happen is if anti-influenza antibodies could somehow also cross-react and bind to coronavirus.  As far as I know, this has not been shown yet.  I would be skeptical of any plots generated by a random anti-vaxxer.  Show me a study that anti-influenza antibodies can bind to coronavirus and then I would seriously consider it.  

Validation of many of the coronavirus antibody tests haven't shown cross-reactivity from blood taken from patients who had influenza, so I'm doubtful that influenza vaccination would cause antibody dependent enhancement.

Thanks for the answer. I was wondering if something like that was indeed possible. The plot in question was sent to me by a cousin per whatsapp which in turn was sent to her by someone. I checked the numbers and seemed right but deleted because I get sent so much crap these days. I just tried to reproduce by myself

But first a warning to everybody:

CORRELATION DOES NOT IMPLY CAUSATION

Spoiler

https://imgur.com/a/C8LDkGm

If fact, now I can see it again. I tend to think that most of the correlation is driven by the countries at the lower left corner which 1) are typically small 2) implemented strong containment policies.

 

 

 

[williamjm]

7 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

This disease is crazy. There are lots of similar accounts in the interwebs of people feeling miserably for weeks and there are others of people hardly having a bad night. People going to bed earlier than usual to not wake up again. People with light symptoms for weeks. People almost comatose for few days and then everything fine.  People with only neurological symptoms. Etc.  In reddit you can find this thread of people describing their experiences. I cannot make sense of them.  It is like there is no pattern at all.

I heard from someone who is doing social work during this crisis and he is equally astounded. A household where everyone is infected down to the cat and the dog. A similar household a few streets away where only one is infected and the virus skips even the grandmother. WTF?

On a similar note the BBC news feed had a link to this story earlier: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1188898.shtml

The Chinese expert quoted said that compared to the cases seen in Wuhan the recent cluster of cases imported into the far north-east of the country seems to have a longer incubation period and test positive for longer but have fewer symptoms and less severe illness. It's interesting but it would be good to see some scientific analysis of this beyond anecdotal observations.