Covid-19 #14 - Are We Done Yet?

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

Food riots? It's 2020 Russia, not the 1930s USSR, not 1788 France, not some starving African country.

Well, duh, did you see the line-ups in North America and Europe when people started to go into lockdown? Who do you think has a better distribution system, the US or Russia? And make no mistake, Russians are in lockdown, and not working, and don't have money, and haven't gotten government relief payments, and can't show up a the legislature dressed in fatigues and carrying AR-15s.

eta: And oh, have Covid-19 deniers that claim it's a fake disease. The Russians have been arresting people for spreading false news.

[Fragile Bird]

The US will likely cross the 2 M cases line today.

[Clueless Northman]

Oh, just had a look to compare the situation in the Eastern Europe.

Russia death ratio is 1.2%, Belarus is 0.6% and Ukraine is 2.9%. At the same time, ratio of infected people among all those who were tested is 3.7% for Russia, 7.7% for Belarus and 6.7% for Ukraine.

Russia definitely is the one testing the more, Ukraine and Belarus test a significant amount of people, but they're definitely missing a lot of cases.

Looking at the fatality rates, on the other hand, Belarus is definitely wrong and is the one who cooks the books the most, by a wide margin. Ukraine seems the most credible, but since they have a lethality rate twice what it seems to be, odds are that it's also a sign they're under-testing, even serious cases (in their case, I'd really suspect it's not to make things look better). As for Russia, as I said, there is some underreporting, possibly for political motive; though, not being a complete crackpot dictatorial regime, it's definitely not as ludicrous as it's in Belarus (or some other countries in other parts of the world).

 

As for the US, sadly, it's barely been going down for the last month. The key problem is that if things go better in the first states who've been hit hard, it's growing in plenty of other places who thought they were ok and eventually caught it badly. Thankfully, deaths have been going down a bit more - most probably because the situation is under control now in NYC, and new cases are more spread over the whole country instead of hitting hard one state's health system. I bloody hope things won't get worse in the next few weeks, but I quite dread to see how the situation evolves.

[The Marquis de Leech]

In a positive bit of news, the last New Zealand case recovered today, so we're now officially virus free. Grand total of 22 deaths and 1154 infected since 28th February.

[A True Kaniggit]

11 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

In a positive bit of news, the last New Zealand case recovered today, so we're now officially virus free. Grand total of 22 deaths and 1154 infected since 28th February.

May it last. 

[Crixus]

On 6/6/2020 at 6:56 PM, Clueless Northman said:

Gulf States and Singapore cases are most probably in migrant workers, so no elderly. Explains the low death rate. That said, I'm also a bit suspicious and wouldn't be surprised if they don't test as much as they should and underreport their deaths. Though Singapore should be a bit closer to the truth, but then, if it's limited to migrant and migrant deaths, they might be sloppy because they don't give much of a shit about it.

 

I live in the UAE - Gulf state. 2.5 million tests done so far - nearly 50k a day over the last few weeks so I doubt they're under-reporting. We're still getting between 500-600 cases a day, and that's partly due to aggressive testing. Population of 10 million. Some hopeful signs recently that we've passed the peak. In terms of hospitals and facilities, the UAE is in a good place and they converted some huge premises into hospitals months ago. People who test positive are either asked to quarantine at home (asymptomatic or mild), put in quarantine facilities - hotels - for 2 weeks with regular monitoring by doctors (moderate) or put in hospital (severe). There was also a strict lockdown and curfew here for over a month which has now been relaxed. People were worried we'd see a huge spike post relaxation, but thankfully that hasn't happened (yet). 

As for Pakistan (referenced above), I'm from there originally and it seems everyone's just given up/moved on. Cases are increasing significantly day by day as are deaths, but everything's been reopened, and they just don't have the resources. In a way an extended lockdown is unrealistic due to the huge # of daily wagers and the government being massively in debt, but what's annoying to see is how educated, well-off people who could self isolate and observe the lockdown just didn't give a shit (anecdotal but I hear stories daily). 

[Guest]

As much as I disagree with Trump deciding to leave the WHO, I have to admit that our national and international public health agencies have not exactly been covering themselves in glory.

The latest debacle is an announcement by the WHO about asymptomatic spread.

Quote

"From the data we have, it still seems to be rare that an asymptomatic person actually transmits onward to a secondary individual," Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, head of WHO's emerging diseases and zoonosis unit, said at a news briefing from the United Nations agency's Geneva headquarters. "It's very rare."

So the WHO is now saying that asymptomatic spread is not a driving factor in infections of COVID-19. 

But then there is this:

Quote

To be sure, asymptomatic and presymptomatic spread of the virus appears to still be happening, Van Kerkhove said but remains rare. That finding has important implications for how to screen for the virus and limit its spread. 

Then I watched an interview with Laurie Garrett yesterday on either CNN or MSNBC, where she was asked about this announcement and she stated that her contacts at the WHO told her that the announcement refers only to people who never develop any symptoms, not even mild ones, but that transmission is still occurring among presymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers (think headache, mild fatigue, maybe loss of sense of taste or smell, gastrointestinal issues, etc.). So this information is useless, because the only thing anyone is ever screened for now is fever, cough, or other flu-like symptoms.

The WHO is definitely producing more heat than light.

[Raja]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Then I watched an interview with Laurie Garrett yesterday on either CNN or MSNBC,

Do you watch the WHO press conferences, especially the one today? Because I suggest that you start doing that - they are *way* better than the reporting on them - I think you will come away with much more if you avoid the reporting and listen to what the who officials actually say.

The WHO today & yesterday went through great lengths regarding the uncertainty about what we do know and don't know about transmission dynamics. However, places like MSNBC, CNN, Andy Slavitt etc are not reporting the cautious way the WHO is talking about these things.

I agree with you that yesterday's specific comment should have been clarified & miscommunication like this should be avoided ( also, it should be noted that this miscommunication was in a question & answer session and not a 'announcement' on asymptomatic & presymptomatic spread), but a lot of this hype & misinformation is because reporting by science reporters at major media outlets including the above is just poor and does not paint the whole picture.

There is a lot of nuance here that isn't adequately captured by 90 percent of science reporting that I read & it is important to note that this stuff moves fast - for example, recently we saw the release of another fairly decent study regarding presymptomatic & asymptomatic spread - things are being published *very* quickly.

Watching these press conferences regularly, I get the sense that the WHO is open about what we know and what we don't know but reporting that I see everywhere is hardly reflective of the uncertainties  - case in point is what was said today by Van Kerkhove "“Every question we answer, we have 10 more"

Which is why this whole 'heat than light' thing for me is something I don't buy at all given the work that has been done by the organization since this all started.

[maarsen]

4 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

As much as I disagree with Trump deciding to leave the WHO, I have to admit that our national and international public health agencies have not exactly been covering themselves in glory.

The latest debacle is an announcement by the WHO about asymptomatic spread.

So the WHO is now saying that asymptomatic spread is not a driving factor in infections of COVID-19. 

But then there is this:

Then I watched an interview with Laurie Garrett yesterday on either CNN or MSNBC, where she was asked about this announcement and she stated that her contacts at the WHO told her that the announcement refers only to people who never develop any symptoms, not even mild ones, but that transmission is still occurring among presymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers (think headache, mild fatigue, maybe loss of sense of taste or smell, gastrointestinal issues, etc.). So this information is useless, because the only thing anyone is ever screened for now is fever, cough, or other flu-like symptoms.

The WHO is definitely producing more heat than light.

WHO is in the  inenviable position of having responsibility but no power. Decision are made, good bad and indifferent, by their political masters. If the masters have no training or interest in science don't blame the messenger. 

[Kalbear]

Surprising no one that can use basic math, about 20 states have seen a large uptick in cases since Memorial day, with Arizona having some counties at ICU capacity already. Virtually every state is doing worse, some heavily so.

It is largely being ignored by the public now due to the Floyd protests and the lack of daily briefings on it.

[Fragile Bird]

Wow, what happened to California, which was doing so well? For a while I followed CA because it's just a bit bigger than Canada and we were almost tracking, but CA was doing better. Now we have 97 k cases and CA has 139 k. Mind you, we have 7960 deaths (80% in nursing homes) and CA only has 4858, so I guess they kept it out of them. CA has done more testing, but only two provinces here really have cases anymore. 64.3k versus 52.7k per million.

[Guest]

Things might be getting out of control in Texas. It reported its highest day of cases ever, and 3rd record day in hospitalizations.

[Mudguard]

On 6/9/2020 at 8:44 AM, Raja said:

Which is why this whole 'heat than light' thing for me is something I don't buy at all given the work that has been done by the organization since this all started.

The WHO took until June to recommend that the general public also wear masks or facial coverings when adequate social distancing is difficult or impossible, like on public transportation or grocery shopping at supermarkets.  There was data in February that asymptomatic or presymptomatic people could pass the disease.  They completely mishandled this issue along with much of the western world. 

Even after most of the West slowly changed their recommendations, the WHO stubbornly refused to change their recommendation despite overwhelming evidence and plain common sense, until June.  I also have a low opinion in their handling of this pandemic.  Many people still think masks aren't needed if they don't think they have the disease, which is unsurprising when so called experts and leaders keep saying it's unnecessary.

[Fragile Bird]

On March 23 I posted an article on my Facebook page about how to make a face mask and the response I got was that home-made face masks offer no protection so why would I wear one. I responded that if they gave 10% protection that would be better than nothing.

[A True Kaniggit]

6 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

On March 23 I posted an article on my Facebook page about how to make a face mask and the response I got was that home-made face masks offer no protection so why would I wear one. I responded that if they gave 10% protection that would be better than nothing.

Homemade facemasks are what I have been using.

(Though I highly suspect I had the virus back in March. I had 3 days of fever, 1 day of loss of taste, then 10 days of constant coughing)

[Loge]

31 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

On March 23 I posted an article on my Facebook page about how to make a face mask and the response I got was that home-made face masks offer no protection so why would I wear one. I responded that if they gave 10% protection that would be better than nothing.

They aren't meant to protect you. They are meant to prevent you from spreading the virus. That's why it's so dickheaded to refuse to wear them.

[Fragile Bird]

17 minutes ago, Loge said:

They aren't meant to protect you. They are meant to prevent you from spreading the virus. That's why it's so dickheaded to refuse to wear them.

Yes, I know that, I’m just reporting the reaction I got. We weren’t talking about protecting others yet.

[rotting sea cow]

On 6/9/2020 at 4:59 PM, The Great Unwashed said:

The WHO is definitely producing more heat than light.

Yeah. Unfortunately.

Let's not forget they have been saying pretty much forever that masks are useless, despite growing evidence they are actually helping.

Let's not forget they vehemently opposed against closing the borders back in February (or maybe before) whilst the disease was spreading around the world. Now borders are mostly closed and going to remain that way for who knows how long.

Let's not forget the recent hydroxychloroquine debacle. Similarly, I have also word from other people they are refusing to include other drugs in their lists (like Interferon-alpha).

There have been countless almost schizophrenic statements and behaviour from the WHO that makes you scratch your head and think what the hell they do want. 

 

[A wilding]

I do think that is a little unfair on the WHO. They do have their problems, but at the same time they are facing huge difficulties.

It takes years to fully understand the impact of a new disease. In the meantime the WHO are having to cobble together advice and recommendations on the basis of partial preliminary reports and research findings which inevitably often turn out to be at least partly wrong, or biased, or downright fraudulent in some cases.

It does not help that they have been and continue to be attacked for nakedly political purposes, or that what they say is often distorted or taken out of context by the news media.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I have now decided that I am not going to get a vaccine as soon as it becomes available. I'll let younger people take it first and see if they suffer from ill-effects. Like dying.

I suspect the first vaccines to land in September or October, just in time to help Trump in the election. Maybe closer to November, so that if people start dying it will be after Election Day.