Covid-19 #14 - Are We Done Yet?

[Fragile Bird]

7 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I wonder how the hospitalization rates differ for countries with universal healthcare, and those where an extended hospital stay can put you in debt for years. 

But didn’t the US government announce very early that it would pay for all COVID-19 hospitalizations? So it shouldn’t matter, should it?

[A True Kaniggit]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

But didn’t the US government announce very early that it would pay for all COVID-19 hospitalizations? So it shouldn’t matter, should it?

Edit: I'm bad at explaining things.

In a country where a hospital visit can ruin you financially, you tend to avoid the hospital.

[Guest]

42 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Yes, it’s constantly pointed out that the infection rate is a snapshot of what happened two weeks ago, and what happened was various states started opening up even though they didn’t meet the CDC standards, particularly the rate of infection dropping for 14 days in a row.

But really, Kal, you sound just like Trump when you say more cases cuz we tested more! Presumably in a lot of those cases people sought testing because they had symptoms. And wasn’t California one of the better states about testing?

Not necessarily disagreeing with anything here, because I more or less agree, but California actually has had difficulty getting their testing ramped up, or at least they were through the first month or so of the pandemic. Their mostly good results came from the early lockdowns.

Positive test rates are increasing here and Trump is holding a fucking 20,000 person rally. Fuck him!

[Guest]

I fucking hate how people are using examples of places like Sweden or Denmark or Norway as models for the U.S. as if they are at all comparable.

Now they're supposed to be a model for opening schools in the fall. Now, let me be clear, I am all for opening schools here if it is shown to be safe here, but just because it's been safe in Scandinavian countries doesn't mean that will work the same way here. American children are more likely to live in multi-generational households and they're unhealthier than their Scandinavian counterparts. We should be comparing apples to apples.

[Kalbear]

Even Trump has some rare statistical chance to be right. 

And I know things are getting worse. But we want the actual positive count to go up some because it means more testing is done. This is by itself a good thing! So dont use it as a bludgeon or a scare tactic. If you want to emphasize things getting bad, use things like Arizona hitting 80% ICU capacity or Alabama already hitting 90%. Use the death rate, which isnt as good but is at least more indicative of worse spread. 

[Zorral]

We have friends in really nice circumstances who want us to come and stay with them for a few days as a break from our cramped quarters -- huge backyard, sometimes with fields all around, etc.

But we're not going anywhere we can't walk, and we aren't going anywhere to be even with dearly beloved people who have not been isolated like we are.  For both sides to be safe, even with everyone meeting outdoors and with masks (these are friends who can provide fully stocked separate living and sleeping quarters from the main house) -- we'd have to quarantine.  Especially after traveling, since we don't have our own vehicle.  So this just doesn't make sense.

We are doing only very limited socializing physically with two people, who live right here, and who we know certainly have been and remain as careful as we are about masks, gloves, Distance, washing and isolating.  We still do Distance, masks and gloves, bring our own glasses and wine and our little stools etc., as we sit outside.

As infections and hospitalizations are spiking throughout much of the country -- and we are where there are very large Protests every day, and now numbers of people who don't live here flocking in to drink cheek-to-cheek, no masks, etc. it seems we have to redouble our carefulness.  Sigh. 

It is so tempting in this beautiful weather to relax the precautions, but we have done so only so far as meeting once a week our two friends, ten feet apart, and partner's medical appointments -- which so far at least can be walked to.

 

 

[Guest]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

We have friends in really nice circumstances who want us to come and stay with them for a few days as a break from our cramped quarters -- huge backyard, sometimes with fields all around, etc.

But we're not going anywhere we can't walk, and we aren't going anywhere to be even with dearly beloved people who have not been isolated like we are.  For both sides to be safe, even with everyone meeting outdoors and with masks (these are friends who can provide fully stocked separate living and sleeping quarters from the main house) -- we'd have to quarantine.  Especially after traveling, since we don't have our own vehicle.  So this just doesn't make sense.

We are doing only very limited socializing physically with two people, who live right here, and who we know certainly have been and remain as careful as we are about masks, gloves, Distance, washing and isolating.  We still do Distance, masks and gloves, bring our own glasses and wine and our little stools etc., as we sit outside.

As infections and hospitalizations are spiking throughout much of the country -- and we are where there are very large Protests every day, and now numbers of people who don't live here flocking in to drink cheek-to-cheek, no masks, etc. it seems we have to redouble our carefulness.  Sigh. 

It is so tempting in this beautiful weather to relax the precautions, but we have done so only so far as meeting once a week our two friends, ten feet apart, and partner's medical appointments -- which so far at least can be walked to.

 

 

Have you thought of doing a bubble isolation with another family or something? That's what I've done with my ex so we could still continue to keep visitation. I will confess as to my luck, because we have several large parks nearby where we can get outside even with other people around.

It does involve trusting that your bubble family will stick to the guidelines, but I've found it makes it a lot easier to grind through the boredom.

[Zorral]

It's an excellent suggestion, but other than our two friends right here, nobody is close enough to get to, to do that.  I'm not taking public transportation, no matter how clean it is kept. Not while infections are spiking throughout the country -- and again, those people are coming here, just when our rates are plummeting.  We had only 37 new cases yesterday.

But I've just returned from a walk and the streets are cheek and jowl with people wearing no masks, eating and drinking, and they do not live here.  They are coming in by subway from all kinds of places, as well as those who have driven in.  There is no doubt there are people among them who are positive.  And there are more of these people all the time every day.

Anyone who isn't rich and very young shouldn't be thinking that the virus isn't going to rip through us again in another three weeks or so, as it is doing in other places that reopened -- including China.

Fortunately for us, we're seldom feeling boredom. We have so much to do, and then just household being kept clean and stocked, getting food and supplies to neighbors and elderly friends we can walk to -- editing the music documentary, studying and writing.

It's live music and dancing that we miss so much that it is actual pain. Being among celebrating people doing what they do best brilliant, and being so happy with it -- o lord, it's like impossible to live without it.  It's such basic part of being human.

~~~~~~~~~

Why the Virus will win:

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/06/virus-will-win/612946/
 

Quote

 

[....]Although we do not yet know the effect of more recent events on the course of the pandemic, or what exactly will happen in the coming weeks and months, the list of culprits will likely be even longer than that.

If the virus wins, it may also be because Derek Chauvin kept his knee on George Floyd’s neck for eight minutes and 46 seconds as Floyd was pleading for his life, setting off protests that—as righteous as they are—could well result in mass infections.

If the virus wins, it may also be because 1,200 public-health experts obfuscated the mortal risk that these mass protests would pose to the most vulnerable among us by declaring not only (as would be reasonable) that they supported them as citizens, but also (which is highly implausible) that they had determined, as scientists, that they would actively serve “the national public health.”

If the virus wins, it may also be because so many states moved to reopen before getting the pace of infections under control.

If the virus wins, it may also be because the right-wing-media echo chamber is starting to downplay the risk that a second wave poses to Americans.

If the virus does win, then, it is because American elites, experts, and institutions have fallen short—and continue to fall short—of the grave responsibility with which they are entrusted in ways too innumerable to list. [....]

 

 

 

[Guest]

24 minutes ago, Zorral said:

It's an excellent suggestion, but other than our two friends right here, nobody is close enough to get to, to do that.  I'm not taking public transportation, no matter how clean it is kept. Not while infections are spiking throughout the country -- and again, those people are coming here, just when our rates are plummeting.  We had only 37 new cases yesterday.

But I've just returned from a walk and the streets are cheek and jowl with people wearing no masks, eating and drinking, and they do not live here.  They are coming in by subway from all kinds of places, as well as those who have driven in.  There is no doubt there are people among them who are positive.  And there are more of these people all the time every day.

Anyone who isn't rich and very young shouldn't be thinking that the virus isn't going to rip through us again in another three weeks or so, as it is doing in other places that reopened -- including China.

Fortunately for us, we're seldom feeling boredom. We have so much to do, and then just household being kept clean and stocked, getting food and supplies to neighbors and elderly friends we can walk to -- editing the music documentary, studying and writing.

It's live music and dancing that we miss so much that it is actual pain. Being among celebrating people doing what they do best brilliant, and being so happy with it -- o lord, it's like impossible to live without it.  It's such basic part of being human.

 

 

 

Not having to rely on public transportation does make it a lot easier to do the bubble isolation model. I'm glad that you're able to keep busy. I usually work so much that now we are much slower I'm having to spend more of my day posting! 

[Zorral]

1 minute ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Not having to rely on public transportation does make it a lot easier to do the bubble isolation model. I'm glad that you're able to keep busy. I usually work so much that now we are much slower I'm having to spend more of my day posting! 

Here's what it looks like now where I live -- and these aren't Protestors!  Note how very white the crowds are in these photos.

https://gothamist.com/food/photos-pandemic-fatigued-new-yorkers-turn-nyc-into-bourbon-street

Protesters keep moving.  These people are staying in place right up next to each other.  Nor on many blocks is there anywhere for someone trying to observe Distance to be, hemmed in with maskless people on all sides from all the restaurants, cafes, etc.

 

[Wilbur]

23 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Sort of on that note:

Do we have enough info on how much the warmer weather impacts it to know if Trump had stumbled upon a small truth there?  Of course, Trump wasn't talking as infectious disease researcher but as economic cheerleader trying to say the virus would just go away.  But I figured as other have suggested that there was a chance of reduction in virus with this happening with influenza even if Trump is a fool.

Anecdotally, our high today was 110 degrees here in Scottsdale, Arizona, and we as a state have moved into the lead in overall rate of infection.  From that perspective, I am going to say that warmer weather has NOT killed off the virus.

[Guest]

We posted two straight high rates of positive cases two days in a row. Based on the full restaurants and barber shops full with no masks and no social distancing, I'm afraid things are going to start getting out of hand. 

Hospitalizations have remained flat, but...they're a lagging indicator.

[Rippounet]

8 minutes ago, Wilbur said:

Anecdotally, our high today was 110 degrees here in Scottsdale, Arizona, and we as a state have moved into the lead in overall rate of infection.  From that perspective, I am going to say that warmer weather has NOT killed off the virus.

What I don't get is why the epidemy is slowing down throughout Europe. We don't seem to be seeing any "second waves" after the end of lockdowns, even though the percentage of people initially infected is quite low (around 6% for France I believe?).

If it's not heat, why is the virus disappearing?

Surely, social distancing isn't that effective?

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

What I don't get is why the epidemy is slowing down throughout Europe. We don't seem to be seeing any "second waves" after the end of lockdowns, even though the percentage of people initially infected is quite low (around 6% for France I believe?).

If it's not heat, why is the virus disappearing?

Surely, social distancing isn't that effective?

Social distancing seems to be ridiculously effective. It was so effective here that everyone had to adjust their models.

Trump kept looking for his therapeutic silver bullet. It seems to be a combination of masks and moderate social distancing, which is just so ironic.

[Kalbear]

Big difference between europe and Arizona- air conditioning. Seriously. Plus people arent so stupid. 

[rotting sea cow]

5 hours ago, Kalbear said:

Big difference between europe and Arizona- air conditioning. Seriously. Plus people arent so stupid. 

You might be on something.

There are (admittedly sketchy) reports that air conditioning might aerosolize  the virus and thus increase its infectivity.

[rotting sea cow]

On 6/12/2020 at 5:13 PM, Fury Resurrected said:

I think a lot of people do not understand what the WHO does. Most of their work is about how to MacGuyver your way through an outbreak in the developing world with limited resources. I took several hours of WHO training modules before returning to work and that became abundantly clear when I was learning about how to make a placenta pit and how to dispose of sharps with cement. Their recommendations are worldwide and have to take into account conditions in Syria and Congo.

I'm sorry but I disagree. Exactly for that reason. Rich countries can afford independent policy, they have the resources for that. Poorer countries are more heavily dependent of WHO recommendations, so they need to be extra careful about what they said. And they have said a ton of BS during this pandemic. I put down some examples.

- They opposed travel restrictions but the only countries that are doing fine are the ones that closed the border early. Worse, anyone could have guessed if the virus reach poorer countries the situation could have gone bad.

- They are still opposing widespread use of masks.

Sorry, but I rate the WHO very poorly in this crisis

[rotting sea cow]

6 hours ago, Rippounet said:

What I don't get is why the epidemy is slowing down throughout Europe. We don't seem to be seeing any "second waves" after the end of lockdowns, even though the percentage of people initially infected is quite low (around 6% for France I believe?).

If it's not heat, why is the virus disappearing?

Surely, social distancing isn't that effective?

The virus spread seems to be mainly driven by superspreading events. You remove those and you can nearly stop the pandemic. Extra care need to be taken to identify those places that can lead to superspreading and be quick to react once one event like that happens. It has happened in the slaughterhouses in Germany, the Post in Austria and some nursery home over there. 

Of course weather helps. People having fun outside in relatively small groups is probably quite safe. Using of masks in enclosed spaces is probably very effective. Lots of people are still working at home.

I wonder nevertheless about next winter. It doesn't seem that governments have a plan.

 

[Which Tyler]

6 hours ago, Rippounet said:

Surely, social distancing isn't that effective?

If practiced properly - it really is - add in imporved personal hygiene; and yo'uve taken out a ridiculously high percentage of the virus' tranmission vector.

[Fury Resurrected]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

I'm sorry but I disagree. Exactly for that reason. Rich countries can afford independent policy, they have the resources for that. Poorer countries are more heavily dependent of WHO recommendations, so they need to be extra careful about what they said. And they have said a ton of BS during this pandemic. I put down some examples.

- They opposed travel restrictions but the only countries that are doing fine are the ones that closed the border early. Worse, anyone could have guessed if the virus reach poorer countries the situation could have gone bad.

- They are still opposing widespread use of masks.

Sorry, but I rate the WHO very poorly in this crisis

I wasn’t disputing that they have missed the mark here. But, I do think the western world deferring to them is part of the problem. In taking all their training modules, one of the first things they say is that you should follow the advice of your local governments first- which really underscores that WHO is primarily there for countries that can’t mount their own response and for data collection. The modules recommend hand sanitizer OVER hand washing, which is completely the opposite of the CDC, which was weird to me until I took the sanitation module. That made it super clear by the things they assumed I needed to know like digging placenta pits and the sharps disposal with cement and fire (and there were worse methods shown in case there was no cement available)- that they stress hand sanitizer because they are trying to speak to places that don’t necessarily have running water. And if you don’t have running water you probably can’t wear a clean mask every day. And if you can’t wear a clean mask, wearing a dirty mask may be worse than not masking at all. This is why anyone privileged enough to read this on the internet probably needs to be listening to their local authorities instead of the WHO- which is exactly what WHO advises