Zorral Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 "Three injured after shooter opened fire on large Arizona shopping center, police say" https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/21/westgate-shooting-arizona/ All is well! The USA is definitely back to normal yay!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Florida has reported it's 4th highest number of positive COVID-19 cases today, and that's even with them cooking the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Maithanet said: I wouldn't call Biden well ahead. I would say he is clearly ahead by a small/medium margin, depending on the poll. That might seem like a minor distinction, but it strikes me as very relevant. The election isn't for six more months and there's a lot of work to do. I am using the average of polls (say RCP that places Biden +5.1) as a metric for it; as long as that lead is greater than the highest loss in popular vote that Trump can withstand while still winning the EC (which I take to be 3-4 points), I would consider Biden 'well ahead'. Of course we all anticipate those numbers to tighten, but for now it looks promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: Florida has reported it's 4th highest number of positive COVID-19 cases today, and that's even with them cooking the books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said: Florida has reported it's 4th highest number of positive COVID-19 cases today, and that's even with them cooking the books. Only the 4th highest? They have to try harder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I am using the average of polls (say RCP that places Biden +5.1) as a metric for it; as long as that lead is greater than the highest loss in popular vote that Trump can withstand while still winning the EC (which I take to be 3-4 points), I would consider Biden 'well ahead'. Of course we all anticipate those numbers to tighten, but for now it looks promising. Interesting. I would consider "well ahead" to be the margin of error for a typical poll + the likely potential losses from the EC. Both are around 3.5 points, so I would say Biden is well ahead if he had a polling advantage of +7, and Trump would be well ahead if his national polling advantage were +3.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted May 21, 2020 Author Share Posted May 21, 2020 Quote But the data still underscores how lifting stay-at-home restrictions alone will do little to bring jobs and spending back unless consumer confidence improves, bringing demand with it. “Think of a restaurant: They’re not going to be able to bring back their entire staff because they’re just not going to have the clientele,” said Laura Wheeler, associate director of the Center for State and Local Finance at Georgia State University. “That’s going to hinder the return of the workforce, because while we’re going to open up, we’re not going to open up to the full capacity that we were at before.” And in Georgia, public polling indicates that confidence has yet to return. Nearly two-thirds of Georgia residents in a recent Washington Post-Ipsos poll said they felt their state was lifting restrictions too quickly, and only 39 percent said they approved of Kemp’s handling of the outbreak. “We’ve been chasing a bit of a false narrative that the economic hit is about the restrictions and not the disease itself,” said Julia Coronado, president and founder of Macropolicy Perspectives, an economic research consulting firm. “The economic story really isn’t about lockdowns, and we’re going to make mistakes by pursuing that narrative. It really is about the disease, and how fearful people are about getting sick, and how businesses are going to operate in a world where this virus is with us.” Reopening reality check: Georgia's jobs aren’t flooding back A month after easing lockdown restrictions, the state is still seeing a steady stream of unemployment claims, economic data shows. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/georgia-reopening-coronavirus-jobs-273070 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Centrist Simon Steele Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 hour ago, Zorral said: "Three injured after shooter opened fire on large Arizona shopping center, police say" https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/05/21/westgate-shooting-arizona/ All is well! The USA is definitely back to normal yay!!!!!!!!!!! I was watching that video of the Costco worker asking a man to put on his mask or leave the store. The Trumper was recording it. He was super aggressive, but the Costco worker effectively took the man's cart and forced him to leave. I think, obviously, the Costco worker is working well above what he's paid to do, and he did the right thing, but I worry about these crazy fuckers who refuse to wear masks (but will wear guns) hurting low wage workers put in positions like this. The shooting you linked, isn't related to that, but this country seems ripe for rage shootings due to things like enforcing the wearing of masks. At the very least, these workers should be making hazard pay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said: Only the 4th highest? They have to try harder! Just wait for the meth and coke to kick in. Hopefully with some tigers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, Maithanet said: Interesting. I would consider "well ahead" to be the margin of error for a typical poll + the likely potential losses from the EC. Both are around 3.5 points, so I would say Biden is well ahead if he had a polling advantage of +7, and Trump would be well ahead if his national polling advantage were +3.5. That is prudent, although I wouldnt be quite as conservative. Assuming polling error is 1-2 points between actual results and average of polls, which is what was seen in 2016, then you could take 3.5(4)+2 = 5.5(6) to be somewhat confident of a poll-based lead that would win the EC. This is a different argument than what I laid out above, but I just gave it a little more thought. This of course assumes the national polls wont have serious, systematic issues with their voter demographics, but they didnt do so bad in 2016. If anything, they may be overcompensating for Trump now, so I'm fairly confident with the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, Martell Spy said: Reopening reality check: Georgia's jobs aren’t flooding back A month after easing lockdown restrictions, the state is still seeing a steady stream of unemployment claims, economic data shows. https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/21/georgia-reopening-coronavirus-jobs-273070 So you're telling me... economic activity is driven by consumer demand, and not The Mighty Will of Job Creators? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: Just wait for the meth and coke to kick in. Hopefully with some tigers. Hey, tigers are OUR thing! The Tiger King lives here after all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted May 21, 2020 Author Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said: So you're telling me... economic activity is driven by consumer demand, and not The Mighty Will of Job Creators? Sadly the libertarian overlords are not yet legally allowed to bullwhip employess and customers in to shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: Hey, tigers are OUR thing! The Tiger King lives here after all! And the Tiger Queen lives in Tampa. Did Joe Exotic feed either of his husbands to the tigers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jace, Extat Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Martell Spy said: Sadly the libertarian overlords are not yet legally allowed to bullwhip employess and customers in to shape. Bullwhipping employees is disgusting and immoral. No libertarian would do such a thing. Now bullwhipping your slaves indentured servants is a different matter entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said: Bullwhipping employees is disgusting and immoral. No libertarian would do such a thing. Now bullwhipping your slaves indentured servants is a different matter entirely. You always do know how to come off of the top rope out of nowhere in a battle royale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: And the Tiger Queen lives in Tampa. Did Joe Exotic feed either of his husbands to the tigers? Nah, they're still kicking around afaik. Funny thing is I know people who've been to his zoo. ETA: If I'm being honest, meth is probably our thing too. So back off! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said: Nah, they're still kicking around afaik. Funny thing is I know people who've been to his zoo. ETA: If I'm being honest, meth is probably our thing too. So back off! Six degrees of separation is fun for Tiger King. Can't claim I know anyone in that range, but I do know every living President. And I'm not so sure Oklahoma can claim that over Florida. South Florida may be cocaine city, but the panhandle is meth country, as is most of the state really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martell Spy Posted May 21, 2020 Author Share Posted May 21, 2020 Well, you can no longer say the State department is doing nothing. Apparently it is being used to further Pompeo's political career, and we are paying for it. A large chunk of the guests were from Fox News, including Laura Ingraham. Two congressional committees seek answers on Pompeo's 'Madison Dinners' Democrats are seeking extensive documents about the exclusive dinners, including complete guest lists and communications. https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/two-congressional-committees-seek-answers-pompeo-s-madison-dinners-n1212221 Quote WASHINGTON — Alarmed over what they call “potential abuses,” a pair of congressional committees are demanding extensive documents from the State Department about a series of extravagant, government-funded dinners hosted by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and revealed by an NBC News investigation this week. The chairs of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee, in a joint letter Thursday to Pompeo, raised concerns that there was no clear official purpose for the roughly two dozen dinners, which Pompeo had hosted in the historic Diplomatic Reception Rooms until the coronavirus pandemic shut them down in March. “We are concerned about a new media report this week that describes a series of lavish dinners that you have been hosting with prominent Republican officials, commentators, and public figures — all at taxpayer expense,” wrote the chairs of the two committees, Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Eliot Engel, both New York Democrats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted May 21, 2020 Share Posted May 21, 2020 Montgomery, AL mayor reporting that all ICU beds in the city are full. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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