Mance is a hypocrite

[Alyn Oakenfist]

So am I the only one who really doesn't like Mance in ASOS, especially in the ways he attempts to justify his war. So what we have:

- It's really nice how willing he is to slaughter his former brothers, which he volunteered to be a part of (he could have well gone South or North after growing up for all we know).

- Attempts to get the Horn of Winter. You might say that it was only as a bargaining chip or to bluff, but for those two you don't need the real Horn, just as dummy as he himself showed. It's pretty clear he would have destroyed the Wall had he had the chance.

- No attempts at diplomacy. So he keeps claiming that he only wants safe passage south, but only comes to the negotiating table after he has been severely bled. If he really wanted safe passage he would have attempted negotiating no matter how unlikely it would have been to succeed.

- And finally Mance's ,,peace terms" are some real bs. So he wants to life South of the Wall but respect no laws. And we know full well the wildling love of raiding and raping, so he basically wants the Nights Watch so surrender to him and pull their trousers down so he can ass rape them whenever he chooses. Cause if Mance is South of the Wall he would have no problem in annihilating the NW.

So Mance may keep talking about how he only wants to save his people and get protection but he actively searches for ways to bring down the Wall, only tries the diplomatic route after the war began (which he lost the first phase of), and his idea of ,,peace" is to have the NW give in to his every demand, giving no concessions and being int he position to exterminate the NW. So fleeing from the Others may be a goal, but it's clear that the destruction of the NW is another. Personally I have no doubt that had he been allowed South his first act would have been to massacre the NW. Luckily Stannis came to smash him. Too bad he didn't actually burn him.

Put it this way, had Mance been offered the same deal Tormund received, would Mance have accepted it? The deal Tormund did was of a guy only concerned in the survival of his people against both the NW and the Others. Mance didn't only want to survive but to eradicate the NW.

[Lord Varys]

I don't have much issue with the wildlings not wanting to change their way of life in the sense that they do not want to integrate themselves into a feudal society, but their insistence to raid and steal from their neighbors certainly causes problems if they are seeking refuge in another land.

One imagines that Mance was either not willing or did realize that his dear people would never agree to beg the kneelers to let them in. But this is never discussed.

Where he completely and utterly failed is at convincing the NW and the Northmen that the Others were a real threat and that it would be in their best interest to work together to defeat them and that the wildlings could give the NW and the Realm at large crucial information about the Others.

This reflects even worse at him in light of the fact that Mance Rayder originally was a man of the NW and thus knew that the original purpose of the Watch was to protect the realms of men from the Others. Him deciding to attack and kill his former brothers in light of what he knew about the Others instead of informing them about the true enemy is the worst kind of betrayal.

If you watch the great game of the Others, how they let things play out, then it is quite clear that Mance and his army were the closest allies of the Others. They were used as a distraction and vanguard weakening the NW, the Wall, and the North before the Others would send in their wights. That would also be the reason why the wildlings never faced the kind of united wight attack the NW faced at the Fist of the First Men - the wildlings were easily crushed by a couple of hundred knights. Their entire movement would have not stood a chance against a massive army of wights the kind of which Mormont faced at the Fist. Yet they were never attacked in force. That is not a coincidence.

And, yes, Mance would have never accepted the kind of deal Tormund swallowed. He was fleeing from the Others, but he did not want to come as a beggar but a conqueror and war lord.

I don't think he would have destroyed the NW completely - he knows that somebody has to man and hold the Wall against the Others - but he would have killed as many of them as he had to get across/through the Wall on his terms. And afterwards his people would have pressed on down south. They wouldn't have helped the defend the Wall.

And, in fact, we can be pretty sure that Jon's death is going to trigger a similar migration among the people who accompanied Tormund. Their deal was with Jon, not the Watch as such. With Jon dead they are no longer honor-bound to remain at the Wall, especially if they are able to free their hostages. Some might remain behind because they think it a good idea to hold the Wall in winter, but the bulk of them will press on for fairer and warmer lands, hoping they will reach places where the Others simply won't become a threat, ever.

How much of that makes sense as a plot is difficult to say. I mean, Mance Rayder was there at Winterfell back in AGoT. How stupid is that guy that he didn't try to use this opportunity to inform Eddard Stark or Robert Baratheon about the danger they were all in? Is this a plot hole or intentional? That is really difficult to say.

[Sigella]

21 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

If you watch the great game of the Others, how they let things play out, then it is quite clear that Mance and his army were the closest allies of the Others. They were used as a distraction and vanguard weakening the NW, the Wall, and the North before the Others would send in their wights. That would also be the reason why the wildlings never faced the kind of united wight attack the NW faced at the Fist of the First Men - the wildlings were easily crushed by a couple of hundred knights. Their entire movement would have not stood a chance against a massive army of wights the kind of which Mormont faced at the Fist. Yet they were never attacked in force. That is not a coincidence.

This is neat stuff, never thought of it like that before but it makes complete sense. The only thing keeping Others from wighting you is to give them male babies and it doesn't seem likely anyone other than Craster was douchy enough to do. Also anyone doing so would have needed to go south anyway so no need to join Mances great host.

From a strategic perspective the attack at the Fist serves many purposes; firstly it weakens the NW as you say, secondly it might be a protection of the wildling host (some nw argued for attacking it) and thirdly the Others might have known about the dragonglass and felt it prudent that piece of intel didn't go beyond the Fist. 

39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

How much of that makes sense as a plot is difficult to say. I mean, Mance Rayder was there at Winterfell back in AGoT. How stupid is that guy that he didn't try to use this opportunity to inform Eddard Stark or Robert Baratheon about the danger they were all in? Is this a plot hole or intentional? That is really difficult to say.

Nah, I get the reasoning on this one. Mance couldn't say who he was but he could have said he had been north of the wall and tell what he learned there and rise alarum, sure. But if so who should he say he is? Saying he is a wildling they will cut one of his ears off. Saying he's travelling singer who happened to visit notw, questions might rise of how he got across imo. Can't see a way to do this without big risks for punishment/tortue/death along with pretty shoddy chances of success.

[James West]

You are not the only one who feels that way about Mance.  He is the worst of the oath-breakers.  It was not enough to walk away from his job over a red cloth.  He had to make himself the leader of the enemies.  The red cloth was just the tip of the iceberg.  Mance is a man who never liked to obey the rules.  He loved to enjoy life too much to commit to a serious way of life as required by the Nightswatch.  He is the party animal who drank a lot and cavorted with the ladies.  He is worse than a libertarian to me.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Sigella said:

This is neat stuff, never thought of it like that before but it makes complete sense. The only thing keeping Others from wighting you is to give them male babies and it doesn't seem likely anyone other than Craster was douchy enough to do. Also anyone doing so would have needed to go south anyway so no need to join Mances great host.

Well, I definitely expect there to be other 'Others worshippers' among Mance's people - he really tried to take as many people with him as he could, and chances are that quite a few people who previously decided to sacrifice to the Others jumped on the chance to get away from them (especially wildlings living in the far north, close to the Land of Always Winter). Others might have given specific instructions by their gods to join Mance and get south of the Wall to do stuff there.

4 minutes ago, Sigella said:

From a strategic perspective the attack at the Fist serves many purposes; firstly it weakens the NW as you say, secondly it might be a protection of the wildling host (some nw argued for attacking it) and thirdly the Others might have known about the dragonglass and felt it prudent that piece of intel didn't go beyond the Fist. 

Yeah, the Watch defeating the wildlings or capturing Mance or other wildlings who would then inform the Watch about the threat the Others pose would be something the Others would have tried to avoid, too.

But if you consider the long game of the Others it is quite clear that the entire point of the wights they dumped at the weirwood grove north of the Wall was to lure the NW out into the haunted forest to destroy them there. The wights targeted the leadership but - assuming they had successfully murdered Mormont and some other high officers - there would have been successors to those posts and somebody would have sent out a big ranging party to gather information. And they would have then met the same fate as Mormont's party did at the Fist.

That dragonglass is effective against the Others the NW only learned after the Fist. And if you look back at the Prologue then they might not be completely aware how ignorant the NW have become - the Other facing Waymar seems to investigate his blade before he accepts his challenge. We can assume that he would have retreated or called on the help of his brethren had Waymar been fighting with an obsidian or Valyrian blade.

4 minutes ago, Sigella said:

Nah, I get the reasoning on this one. Mance couldn't say who he was but he could have said he had been north of the wall and tell what he learned there and rise alarum, sure. But if so who should he say he is? Saying he is a wildling they will cut one of his ears off. Saying he's travelling singer who happened to visit notw, questions might rise of how he got across imo. Can't see a way to do this without big risks for punishment/tortue/death along with pretty shoddy chances of success.

Oh, sure, it would have been risky for Mance to reveal himself at Winterfell. But if he can come down there couldn't he also have taken/sent some 'wildling ambassadors or envoys' carrying messages from the king-beyond-the-Wall to the King on the Iron Throne? That certainly would have been possible - and Mance, hiding in their midst, would have been able to assess who of the assembled men he could, perhaps, later approach in private.

Not informing the NW and the Realm about the Others makes no sense if you are Mance. Even if you cannot convince them to allow your people in, you will have to kill quite a few people to get your people to safety and once that's done you have to work with the people you attacked to defeat the Others - or at least keep them on their side of the Wall.

That is not very likely to happen if you try to tell them about the Others only after you have killed most of the NW and invaded the North. People might then see the Others as the enemy or their enemy - and welcome their aid in crushing the wildlings until it is too late.

The main problem with the Mance character is that he is a former brother of the NW. A born wildling king has less reason to view the Watch as his former brothers - but Mance does. He understands what the Watch is about in truth, and if he stands against the Others it makes no sense he would also want to stand, in principle, against the NW. He should have reached out to Mormont and Qorgyle years ago. Instead, we are supposed to buy that Mance only breaches this subject with Jon Snow at a point when they are about to destroy the Wall.

That is pretty stupid if you think about it for a moment.

[Hugorfonics]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The main problem with the Mance character is that he is a former brother of the NW. A born wildling king has less reason to view the Watch as his former brothers - but Mance does. He understands what the Watch is about in truth, and if he stands against the Others it makes no sense he would also want to stand, in principle, against the NW. He should have reached out to Mormont and Qorgyle years ago. Instead, we are supposed to buy that Mance only breaches this subject with Jon Snow at a point when they are about to destroy the Wall.

That is pretty stupid if you think about it for a moment.

A born wildling king has less reason to despise the NW too. He does understand what the NW is in truth. Its slavery, a mindless entity that demands your life, liberty and death. Mance was not coming south to do his duty, he was there to exact revenge on the life they tried to steal from him.

Thats one reason he didnt contemplate peace with Mormont. Another is, Mance is not a wildling king. The majority of his army call themselves"free folk", hes ruling at their discretion. Mance had the power to destroy the NW, but not even their king had the clout to befriend it. 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And, yes, Mance would have never accepted the kind of deal Tormund swallowed. He was fleeing from the Others, but he did not want to come as a beggar but a conqueror and war lord.

Im not sure. Tormund was a war lord too. Mance lost, bad. Tormund and them had no choice, Jon made them an offer they can't refuse. Mance was stubborn, but he didnt have a death wish

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, Mance Rayder was there at Winterfell back in AGoT. How stupid is that guy that he didn't try to use this opportunity to inform Eddard Stark or Robert Baratheon about the danger they were all in? Is this a plot hole or intentional? That is really difficult to say.

You want a deserter to introduce himself to Eddard? Hes better off shaking hands with an Other. Whats he gonna say, the exact same shit Gared said, and all the others who came before him?

8 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Too bad he didn't actually burn him.

Why? 

The war thats coming doesnt care about titles or oaths, and it needs to be stopped. Who has more knowledge about the terrain past the north, or south of it? Who has battled these creatures more then any living man? Name a better swordsmen.

Rayder is too much of an asset. Does he still harbor resentment? Probably. Does keeping him alive hurt the NW morale? Sure. Should we be comfortable with his allegiance to Melisandre? Hell no. Will he be upset when he finds out Jon sent his son to Essos?... Yet still, the man is just too damn valuable. To burn him is to burn your own arm.

[Lord Varys]

4 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

A born wildling king has less reason to despise the NW too. He does understand what the NW is in truth. Its slavery, a mindless entity that demands your life, liberty and death. Mance was not coming south to do his duty, he was there to exact revenge on the life they tried to steal from him.

Mance is just a scumbag with no honor nor loyalty. He didn't have to take the black. But he did it, and was thus bound by his vow. If he cannot keep his vows over a triviality he shouldn't have sworn them in the first place.

The Watch is about as bad as a religious convent you join of your own free will. Not my problem if you want to fuck, marry, have children, leave, no longer obey, etc. - if you took a solemn vow to give all that, you are a hypocrite and a scumbag if you find reasons why you have to break them.

And nobody wanted to steal Mance's life. Where are you getting shit like that?

4 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Thats one reason he didnt contemplate peace with Mormont. Another is, Mance is not a wildling king. The majority of his army call themselves"free folk", hes ruling at their discretion. Mance had the power to destroy the NW, but not even their king had the clout to befriend it. 

That is odd in light of the fact that Mance actually wants to do just that when he talks with Jon about the Watch letting them through. He wanted to play the negotiation card, and apparently had the power to do so. The odd thing just is that he - a former man of the Watch - didn't think about informing his ex-buddies about those Others. He must have known about them for a long time, possibly even before he became king-beyond-the-Wall - yet he never tried to inform his old colleagues about what's going on. That makes him a traitor trice over - once for deserting, and two for effectively assisting the Others by keeping silent about them, and three for actually attacking the Watch and the realms of men beyond the Wall.

And the wildlings aren't on that bad terms with the Watch - they trade more than just occasionally. The only issue the Watch has with the wildlings is when they cross the Wall to raid and steal in the Gifts or the North.

4 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Im not sure. Tormund was a war lord too. Mance lost, bad. Tormund and them had no choice, Jon made them an offer they can't refuse. Mance was stubborn, but not he didnt have a death wish

Mance was in a position of power and never had any intention to plead with anyone. He was a king. Tormund isn't a king, he isn't even much of a lord.

It makes sense for a king to not compromise with people he thinks he can crush ... but if said king is dependent on the NW and the infrastructure they maintain (i.e. the Wall) to keep his people safe then it does make no sense for him to want to weaken both while he hasn't yet tried means which wouldn't weaken them.

I mean, think for a moment - Mormont and his officers see the dead rise in AGoT. If Mance had sent envoys to the Watch around that time Mormont and his people would have listened, no? They would not have dismissed stories about Others and wights and would instead have been very interested to hear what good knowledge the wildlings could offer on those subjects. Thus they could have reached some sort of understanding, and Mormont and Jon could have written 'King Robb' to ask permission to settle Mance's people in the North or they could have offered the Gifts at least.

Considering Robb's issues with the Lannisters they could have even realized the potential of the wildlings as canon fodder in their war - Mance could have been granted permission to cross the North and the Neck to help 'King Robb' in his fights in the Riverlands and the West.

4 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

You want a deserter to introduce himself to Eddard? Hes better off shaking hands with an Other. Whats he gonna say, the exact same shit Gared said, and all the others who came before him?

Some more tangible evidence, perhaps? If you don't try you cannot complain nobody would believe you. Mance never tried to tell anyone anything about the Others. But as I said when I elaborated some more - Mance could have used that opportunity to actually get some real wildling envoys to Winterfell. This was a once in a lifetime chance to get the ear of the King on the Iron Throne and his Warden of the North. If some people from beyond the Wall had shown up at Winterfell with a message who were not known raiders and murderers and rapists the Starks wouldn't have seized them immediately when they revealed themselves. Especially if they had invoked guest right and all that.

I don't know if anyone would have bought their story, but Ned had recently heard Gared's story, Benjen was there, too, and in light of what transpired later a couple of wildlings telling tales about zombies and Others may have caused the royal court to react differently to the stories about events up north they heard later. At the very least it could have caused more dignitaries than just Tyrion to visit the Wall. Perhaps Robert himself would have gone up there? Or Jaime?

An event like that could have changed the focus of the courtiers and the Starks from intrigues and advancement to the things that truly mattered - and that could certainly have prevented the entire War of the Five Kings. If Ned had decided that Jon Arryn was just an old man whose death was pretty much irrelevant things could have taken a completely different turn. People only are as absorbed with their schemes and intrigues and petty little problems because they have, for the most part, no reason to even entertain the notion that they are all in mortal danger.

[Hugorfonics]

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mance is just a scumbag with no honor nor loyalty. He didn't have to take the black. But he did it, and was thus bound by his vow. If he cannot keep his vows over a triviality he shouldn't have sworn them in the first place.

The Watch is about as bad as a religious convent you join of your own free will. Not my problem if you want to fuck, marry, have children, leave, no longer obey, etc. - if you took a solemn vow to give all that, you are a hypocrite and a scumbag if you find reasons why you have to break them.

And nobody wanted to steal Mance's life. Where are you getting shit like that?

Mance was raised at the wall, he had no prospects in life and probably said his vow when he was no older then Jon. I dont think we can fault him for not honoring his vow, especially when it all boiled down to simple rights like freedom of expression

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is odd in light of the fact that Mance actually wants to do just that when he talks with Jon about the Watch letting them through. He wanted to play the negotiation card, and apparently had the power to do so.

That was plan b. Plan a was to attack CB from the south, but Jon betrayed him. 

Mance did not want a bloody battle, but hed take that over submitting to southern rule

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

. The odd thing just is that he - a former man of the Watch - didn't think about informing his ex-buddies about those Others. He must have known about them for a long time, possibly even before he became king-beyond-the-Wall - yet he never tried to inform his old colleagues about what's going on. That makes him a traitor trice over - once for deserting, and two for effectively assisting the Others by keeping silent about them, and three for actually attacking the Watch and the realms of men beyond the Wall.

Mance does not consider himself a NW anymore. Playing ranger for an old bear is no longer on his to do list. 

Plus, how does he know that the NW is as clueless as they are?

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And the wildlings aren't on that bad terms with the Watch - they trade more than just occasionally. The only issue the Watch has with the wildlings is when they cross the Wall to raid and steal in the Gifts or the North.

Some dont see the NW as villainous as the deserters do, but the warriors are not among them, who curse kneelers and kill all crows who are ranging

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mance was in a position of power and never had any intention to plead with anyone. He was a king. Tormund isn't a king, he isn't even much of a lord.

He was a king, Tormund was something of a lord, Stannis and Jon put an end to that. Only psychopaths like the Weeper dont understand the gravity of the situation

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It makes sense for a king to not compromise with people he thinks he can crush ... but if said king is dependent on the NW and the infrastructure they maintain (i.e. the Wall) to keep his people safe then it does make no sense for him to want to weaken both while he hasn't yet tried means which wouldn't weaken them.

It would weaken him. In order for Mance to king over Weepers, Giantbanes and Dogheads he must act strong. As in, not bending his knee at the first possible moment

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Mance could have used that opportunity to actually get some real wildling envoys to Winterfell. This was a once in a lifetime chance to get the ear of the King on the Iron Throne and his Warden of the North. If some people from beyond the Wall had shown up at Winterfell with a message who were not known raiders and murderers and rapists the Starks wouldn't have seized them immediately when they revealed themselves. Especially if they had invoked guest right and all that.

If Mance wasnt Mance then he could have taken this moment and perhaps make most of the situation. 

Instead he looked upon the Stag that occupies the Dragons throne and thought the same thing practically every other lord living on the island called Westeros thought. "I could take him"

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I don't know if anyone would have bought their story, but Ned had recently heard Gared's story, Benjen was there, too, and in light of what transpired later a couple of wildlings telling tales about zombies and Others may have caused the royal court to react differently to the stories about events up north they heard later. At the very least it could have caused more dignitaries than just Tyrion to visit the Wall. Perhaps Robert himself would have gone up there? Or Jaime?

Gared said the same thing that all deserters tell Ned, he thought them all crazy. After he killed them, well maybe before too

Was Robert as much of an idiot? No, but he was a lazy drunk who was not in any hurry to keep traveling north.

What could Jaime do? And why would he go north if Cersei was going back south?

[Alyn Oakenfist]

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Its slavery, a mindless entity that demands your life, liberty and death.

Well not really, it's more of a penal colony which contains parts of a monastic order. It's either for volunteers or felons.

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Mance was not coming south to do his duty, he was there to exact revenge on the life they tried to steal from him.

I agree, therefore, when he talks constantly about how he only wants to save his people he is in fact a hypocrite.

5 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Im not sure. Tormund was a war lord too. Mance lost, bad. Tormund and them had no choice, Jon made them an offer they can't refuse. Mance was stubborn, but he didnt have a death wish

Tormund didn't even try and fight. He realized what was best for his people and put old hatreds aside. Mance was being bled dry on the Wall by the NW and still wouldn't give sensible peace terms.

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Why? 

The war thats coming doesnt care about titles or oaths, and it needs to be stopped. Who has more knowledge about the terrain past the north, or south of it? Who has battled these creatures more then any living man? Name a better swordsmen.

Rayder is too much of an asset. Does he still harbor resentment? Probably. Does keeping him alive hurt the NW morale? Sure. Should we be comfortable with his allegiance to Melisandre? Hell no. Will he be upset when he finds out Jon sent his son to Essos?... Yet still, the man is just too damn valuable. To burn him is to burn your own arm.

Because:

A, he deffo deserves it

B, he is a spineless worm without a shred of loyalty or integrity. First chance he gets he's going to crown himself King Beyond the Wall again.

Knowing how much you like the 3 kingdoms, it's like Cao Cao not beheading Lu Bu after he betrayed him. Is he a valuable asset? Sure. Can he be trusted in the slightest? Hell no. Therefore there is only one sensible alternative.

6 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, Mance Rayder was there at Winterfell back in AGoT. How stupid is that guy that he didn't try to use this opportunity to inform Eddard Stark or Robert Baratheon about the danger they were all in? Is this a plot hole or intentional? That is really difficult to say.

You want a deserter to introduce himself to Eddard? Hes better off shaking hands with an Other. Whats he gonna say, the exact same shit Gared said, and all the others who came before him?

Yeah Lord Varys was probably going a bit too far hear, but he could have sent envoys to the Wall with something like: ,,Hey the Others are back and we can't fight among ourselves, how about we reach some terms?" He can't go tot he Wall, but his envoys can under a peace banner.

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

It would weaken him. In order for Mance to king over Weepers, Giantbanes and Dogheads he must act strong. As in, not bending his knee at the first possible moment

He didn't have to bend the knee. Tormund didn't. Tormund just got a deal in which they fight together, with neither side being able to fuck over the other (the NW because numbers, Tormund because hostages).

 

All in all I think that the argument that Mance is just trying to save his people is complete BS. That may be one of his goals, but destroying the NW is there too. Even you admit it, he wants vengeance for the Watch killing his raiding parents, and whatever other slights he has against them. He is just another King Beyond the Wall, no different the Gendel or the Horn Lord.

[Hugorfonics]

 

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Well not really, it's more of a penal colony which contains parts of a monastic order. It's either for volunteers or felons.

Or for orphans, like Monster and Mance

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I agree, therefore, when he talks constantly about how he only wants to save his people he is in fact a hypocrite.

I wouldn't call it hypocritical, hes a bit of a liar and has his priorities in different orders then most, but he does want to save his people

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Tormund didn't even try and fight. He realized what was best for his people and put old hatreds aside.

There was no fight to give, Stannis crushed the wildling army

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Mance was being bled dry on the Wall by the NW and still wouldn't give sensible peace terms.

Because he was winning, if Stannis never intervened then Rayder would have defeated the NW

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

A, he deffo deserves it

Deserves to be burnt alive? Harsh

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

B, he is a spineless worm without a shred of loyalty or integrity. First chance he gets he's going to crown himself King Beyond the Wall again.

Sure. Probably. Still though, the bad does not outweigh the good

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Knowing how much you like the 3 kingdoms, it's like Cao Cao not beheading Lu Bu after he betrayed him. Is he a valuable asset? Sure. Can he be trusted in the slightest? Hell no. Therefore there is only one sensible alternative.

Did Fengxian betray Cao? He was always an enemy and betrayed everyone, but I dont think Cao ever thought of him as a friend.

Would history be different? Maybe Cao would have won if he had the famed Lu Bu lead his van, instead he had Lu Bus lieutenant lead his van, Zhang Liao. (Who did a fantastic job, the boogyman to the children of Eastern Wu)

The comparison, imo, is too different. Cao Cao was out to glorify the Han (or himself), while Jon and Stannis are there to save humanity 

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Yeah Lord Varys was probably going a bit too far hear, but he could have sent envoys to the Wall with something like: ,,Hey the Others are back and we can't fight among ourselves, how about we reach some terms?" He can't go tot he Wall, but his envoys can under a peace banner.

Any other wildling king, Id expect that. Mance has too much resentment and anger towards the NW

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

He didn't have to bend the knee. Tormund didn't. Tormund just got a deal in which they fight together, with neither side being able to fuck over the other (the NW because numbers, Tormund because hostages).

The battle changed all. Before it however, the NW and IT (Stannis) had to destroy Mances power, this means forcing the Wildling to kneel

6 hours ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

All in all I think that the argument that Mance is just trying to save his people is complete BS. That may be one of his goals, but destroying the NW is there too. Even you admit it, he wants vengeance for the Watch killing his raiding parents, and whatever other slights he has against them. He is just another King Beyond the Wall, no different the Gendel or the Horn Lord.

Id say hes more dangerous then Gendal or the Horn Lord, certainly had less love for the NW

[Alyn Oakenfist]

2 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Or for orphans, like Monster and Mance

Monster is Stannis's prisoner, no relation to the Watch while Mance was a guest or a ward (not clear). Regardless he wasn't in the Watch itself, that he choose himself.

[Hugorfonics]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

Monster is Stannis's prisoner

If Stannis dies and Monster grows up on the wall, chances are he'll join the NW.

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

while Mance was a guest or a ward (not clear). Regardless he wasn't in the Watch itself, that he choose himself.

He did choose that. He was also raised by Crows who know they need every man, Mance was probably young and heavily pressured to join the nw, so he did. Plus, what other prospects were available to him?

[Jacqs-Aus]

Personally, I think that if Mance had attempted to talk to Robert about the threat at the Wall, Robert would have been only too keen to head up there himself.  He might not believe it to be true but the idea of such a battle would be all too tempting for him.

As he states to Ned, he's not made for ruling and just wishes to spend his life fighting etc.  He would relish the chance for a basically ‘winner-takes-all’ battle, especially against a supposedly undefeatable enemy.  Robert would be more than happy to head to the Wall to lead them into battle, probably wanting to set off right then and there.

Mance might still be beheaded for desertion, although Robert would probably admire him for being such a warrior that he leads the Free Folk, because Mance himself states that the Free Folk respect strength and he had to fight against other leaders/warriors to prove himself.  Still, if Mance truly is a leader, he should be prepared to sacrifice his life for the good of his people.

[Julia H.]

On the one hand, I agree that instead of attacking the Seven Kingdoms, Mance should have tried to negotiate first, informing the realm about the danger the Others meant. How successful those negotiations would have been is another question. I believe he could have reached Mormont but I doubt he could have reached King Robert himself - actually he should have been happy to be able to reach Jon Arryn, but even that is doubtful because the wildlings are not recognized as a country or any sort of political entity to negotiate with. When Jon Snow opens the gates to Tormund and his wildlings, we see all the doubt he is having about this decision as well as a strong opposition to this act within the NW. It wouldn't have been different a few years earlier - the wildlings were regarded as the main enemy by most of the Watch. Even Ned, a Northman, believed that the Others may never have existed. The experienced rangers of the NW apparently knew or suspected better, but we can see that they were not willing to speak about this suspicion. Those who didn't go on ranging (like Bowen Marsh) probably had no idea and wouldn't have trusted the wildlings, and Mance knew this. Also Mance might easily have lost the support of the wildlings if he had wanted to convert them into "kneelers". (Tormund had an easier job convincing them after the lost war.)

Still, as I said, I agree that he should have tried negotiations. It would have meant giving up the advantage of a surprise attack, but it would have been the right thing to do. However, Mance, though he has a certain charisma, is not the kind of politician who is willing to impose an unpopular policy on his people (and he probably also lacks the necessary authority to do that), and he is certainly not willing to sacrifice his own life just to make the lords of the Seven Kingdoms see the truth about the Others.

On the other hand, I can definitely cut him some slack for deserting the NW. Mance was born a wildling and, as still a child, became a prisoner of the NW. His life was spared and he was brought up in the NW. Obviously, there was a point where he became a brother or at least a trainee recruit of the NW, and I think until that point he had been regarded as a prisoner (even if he wasn't necessarily kept locked up). Therefore, I don't think he had much of a choice. He wouldn't have been allowed to leave the NW in either direction (north or south) before he was either a sworn brother or (at least) an official trainee who was expected to take the vow. He would either have remained a prisoner or become a brother eventually. It is also possible that he learned to (psychologically) identify with the Watch due to all the influences he was under - even if he also found it difficult to fit in or to follow all the rules. 

I'm saying this because I think the story of the red cloak is the story of Mance rediscovering his true identity, and it is very believable from a psychological viewpoint. When he was a child he was captured by the black brothers, who didn't kill him but brought him up. As a ranger, he was wounded north of the Wall and nurtured back to health by a wildling woman, who could just as well have wanted him dead. It happened to him twice that his life was spared / saved by the enemy. Both events led to a sort of identity crisis, from which a new identity was born. At this point, Mance must have realized that the wildlings were not all evil and subhuman, as they are often depicted in the 7K.  Moreover, they were his people. Then he wanted to combine the red cloak with the black uniform, and, although it would seem a simple and understandable request, it was not allowed. The Watch does not tolerate conflicting loyalties. Yet, the conflicting loyalties are there, only people are forced to choose between them. Mance chose the people he had been born among rather than those who fought against his people. I can't fault him for that, vow or not.

It is interesting that his best friend in the Watch had apparently been Qhorin, someone who was so single-mindedly devoted to serving the NW and the realm at all costs. 

 

 

 

 

[Lord Varys]

The idea that Mance was 'a prisoner' of the NW is completely without basis. He was taken in by them and could leave and go back to his family/people anytime. He chose to take the vows and they he broke them over a triviality. If he didn't want to be a black brother he wouldn't have to be.

[Julia H.]

Based on Qhorin's words (ACoK, Jon VII):

"He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again."

Mance was taken, not taken in when he was apparently with a raider party. 

Merriam Webster:

Definition of take

 (Entry 1 of 2)

transitive verb

1: to get into one's hands or into one's possession, power, or control: such as

a: to seize or capture physically 

[Only 89 selfies today]

Mance Rayder is one of those people who value freedom more than anything.  He is the thorn on the side of Westeros.  He should have been executed. 

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Julia H. said:

Based on Qhorin's words (ACoK, Jon VII):

"He loved the wild better than the Wall. It was in his blood. He was wildling born, taken as a child when some raiders were put to the sword. When he left the Shadow Tower he was only going home again."

Mance was taken, not taken in when he was apparently with a raider party. 

Merriam Webster:

Definition of take

 (Entry 1 of 2)

transitive verb

1: to get into one's hands or into one's possession, power, or control: such as

a: to seize or capture physically 

This doesn't mean he was brought up as a prisoner.

I mean, do you think Osha is still a prisoner of the Starks? Should she cut off Rickon's head and bring it to Mance? You don't train a prisoner to become one of your own ... and if you do, he is per definition no longer a prisoner. They couldn't even view Mance as an oathbreaker if he hadn't been free when he took his vow. Unlike the criminals from the Seven Kingdoms, Mance hadn't choose between lordly punishment and the Wall. He was raised at the Wall.

Mance didn't have to choose between death and the vows of the Night's Watch. His betrayal of his people, the NW, is about as noble as Theon's betrayal of the Starks - with the difference that Mance was never hostage.

Not to mention that Qhorin's explanation there is post hoc, explaining/making sense of Mance's behavior after it happened.

[Hugorfonics]

12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

he broke them over a triviality

Freedom of expression is a triviality?

Quote

"One day on a ranging we brought down a fine big elk. We were skinning it when the smell of blood drew a shadowcat out of its lair. I drove it off, but not before it shredded my cloak to ribbons. Do you see? Here, here, and here?" He chuckled. "It shredded my arm and back as well, and I bled worse than the elk. My brothers feared I might die before they got me back to Maester Mullin at the Shadow Tower, so they carried me to a wildling village where we knew an old wisewoman did some healing. She was dead, as it happened, but her daughter saw to me. Cleaned my wounds, sewed me up, and fed me porridge and potions until I was strong enough to ride again. And she sewed up the rents in my cloak as well, with some scarlet silk from Asshai that her grandmother had pulled from the wreck of a cog washed up on the Frozen Shore. It was the greatest treasure she had, and her gift to me." He swept the cloak back over his shoulders. "But at the Shadow Tower, I was given a new wool cloak from stores, black and black, and trimmed with black, to go with my black breeches and black boots, my black doublet and black mail. The new cloak had no frays nor rips nor tears . . . and most of all, no red. The men of the Night's Watch dressed in black, Ser Denys Mallister reminded me sternly, as if I had forgotten. My old cloak was fit for burning now, he said.

"I left the next morning . . . for a place where a kiss was not a crime, and a man could wear any cloak he chose."

Its not just that Mance looks good in red, its that personal property is, well, personal. 

Material objects can often be sentimental, helping to define what a particular person is (arya and needle).

The NW is not like that, they want conformity like the wights have, which Mance was not about

[Hugorfonics]

17 hours ago, Julia H. said:

It is interesting that his best friend in the Watch had apparently been Qhorin, someone who was so single-mindedly devoted to serving the NW and the realm at all costs. 

That is interesting. One could theorize that Mance used to have a similar outlook on the realm before their honor thing, before the red cloak happened. Or even that any crow, like Halfhand, is capable of desertion when personal options are presented, ike Aemon in his final days

Or it could just be that all bards are obsessed with their own vanity and expressionism and will shed all responsibly to prove that. Lol, damn rockstars. Like Daeron.

17 hours ago, Julia H. said:

. Both events led to a sort of identity crisis, from which a new identity was born. At this point, Mance must have realized that the wildlings were not all evil and subhuman, as they are often depicted in the 7K.  Moreover, they were his people.

Thats totally possible too.

59 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

about as noble as Theon's betrayal of the Starks 

Balon went to his worst enemy in order to keep his life, he sold his sons soul to the devil. Winterfell was never Theons home, it was his prison. Mind body and soul.

Theon bought back his soul. By paying the iron price.

There's noble, and then theres ironborn noble. And when it comes to the capture of Winterfell, well I think it carries a sense of romanticism