Theory of the origins of Aegon *Young Griff*

[Malgoth]

Good time of the day, everyone.  I want to present you, guys, my own logical and promising for the plot theory, which connects several other popular theories, about the origin of Young Griff and and I’m very interested to hear your opinion on this matter. First at all, sorry for my bad grammar, english isn't my first or even second language.

What if Aegon are indeed a son of Rhaegar, but just not Elia? I know,  I know, it's sounds ridiculous and I should probably die while eathing my own shit, but hear me out : every Targaryen has some kind of madness and obsesion, even Aegon " the Unlikely" brought his whole family together and then burned almost all of them to hell. And if Rhaegar was obsessed with the prophecy and Elia, a smart woman, knew that this a big problem and the trouble is brewing. While she was unable to had the third child with him, she had a plan how to give it to him and the dialogue. from Dany's vision, really happened :

Rhaegar: Aegon. What better name for a king?

Elia: Will you make a song for him?

Rhaegar: He has a song. He is the prince that was promised, and his is the song of ice and fire. There must be one more. The dragon has three heads...

 

But I just can't believe that Elia, wise and experienced woman would agree on Rhaegar's "kidnapping" of Lyanna Stark, daughter of Lord Paramount, which was engaged to other Lord Paramount no less. It's just sounds like the worst and dumbest idea ever. But what if Elia already agreed on Rhaegar's bastard, so he could  got his third head. from someone she could trust ....  Ashara Dayne. Ashara was lady-in-waiting and the friend of Elia,  unmaried, come from very ancient and noble house, have some valyrian look, and just a perfect beauty, The fact that she also a sister of his best friend Arthur don't hurt. Also, in Dorne people have more benevolent attitude towards the bastards.

So, Rhaegar agreed to a suggestion, did the deed, which made him the very person who "dishonored" her in the Harrenhal. and then, for some reason, get the cold feet or, what is more likely, for some reason decided that Lyanna is better suited for the role of the mother for the third dragon head, or maybe even for the role of Aegon himself, and he run way with her. All all this led to war, deaths, well... Robert's rebellion.

Pregnant Ashara managed to hide in Dorne and remained there until the very end of the war, util she was visited by Eddard Stark. After that, staying in Dorne wasn't safe for her or the child, telling the rest of Martells wouldn't do anything good (it's Rhaegar child, but not Elia's), so she decided to stage her death and disappear in the Free Cities, where she was discovered by Varys and Illyrio. Together, they cooked up all this plan with the replacement and survival of Aegon, and gave Ashara role by educating him in the subject of the faith under the name of septa Lemore, so she could always be near him... 

I can't tell what Varys and Illyrio get out this or why they interested in the son of Rhaegar and Ashara, but I can say that mine theory ties many other, is something no one expects and, also, give very nice drama and conflict in the future books, when Barristan Selmy learns that Ashara alive and has a son. He would have to decide on which side he on (I'm always was curious why Varys gave Barristan to Dany and not to Aegon. Maybe he knew that with Ashara, he could make him to switch side any moment. It's possible considering how many times in Barristan's POV he mentioned Ashara).

 

 

All of this doesn't mean I think my theory is the most probable or the other theories are impossible, not at all. For example, one time I did't believe that Aegon (Young Griff) can be possible be a Blackfyre, because I just couldn't see how the Golden Company could have left out of radar a member of house Blackfyre, let alone two. Even in case where all what was left from the dynasty is a girl, she 100% would have been married to some member of houses Peake or Strickland and not putted in Lysene pillow house. So, that way I thought that Aegon could only be eather real son of Rhaegar and Elia, or, which was more possible, some great grandson of Aerion Targaryen, grandson of his son Maegor. After all, there was Bright flame in Deny's prophecy. Anyway, by learning some English history, when King Richard II Plantagenet, in order to secure his position, in 1397 accused of treason and executed his uncle Thomas of Woodstock, 1st Duke of Gloucester, one of the last of Plantagenets at the time besides himself. It's didn't helped and Richard was deposed two years and died in captivity the next year after that, probably murdered. And so House of Lancaster take the throne. 55 years later the War of Roses starts...

What am I all leading with all of this? Maelys the Monstrous could have, after the killing his cousin Daemon IV. in order to take control of the Golden Company, sell in to the slavery Daemon's possible children (In Lys, for example), so he wouldn't have to worry about possible revolt from some GC members.  Which maybe was logical start of the stories of Varys and Serra...

The end.

 

Thank you for reading and your time. Be safe and stay healthy.

,

[Yaya]

hi Malgoth - i am 100% behind you on your statement:

2 hours ago, Malgoth said:

But I just can't believe that Elia, wise and experienced woman would agree on Rhaegar's "kidnapping" of Lyanna Stark, daughter of Lord Paramount, which was engaged to other Lord Paramount no less. It's just sounds like the worst and dumbest idea ever.

(personally, i do not subscribe to R+L=anyone at all.  these two people did not %$#@ each other, either willingly or unwillingly IMO)

 

but most importantly:  thanks for posting these interesting ideas!

i have to say that i never thought about the possibility of some of these things:

2 hours ago, Malgoth said:

Pregnant Ashara managed to hide in Dorne and remained there until the very end of the war, util she was visited by Eddard Stark. After that, staying in Dorne wasn't safe for her or the child, telling the rest of Martells wouldn't do anything good (it's Rhaegar child, but not Elia's), so she decided to stage her death and disappear in the Free Cities, where she was discovered by Varys and Illyrio. Together, they cooked up all this plan with the replacement and survival of Aegon

regarding the above - not to be a book spoiler - this sort of agreement lines up with "the letter" thing that the Prince of Dorne confides to his daughter, it's quite a interesting theory & i really like it.  i think it is quite possible.

2 hours ago, Malgoth said:

Barristan Selmy learns that Ashara alive and has a son. He would have to decide on which side he on

i like the above idea regarding how Barristan would respond to such a situation.
 
and below - yes indeed ... why?  what would be the reasons why Varys & Illyrio made these decisions of Jorah & Barristan to counsel/aid Daenrys & Connington & Lenore to counsel/aid Aegon?

3 hours ago, Malgoth said:

(I'm always was curious why Varys gave Barristan to Dany Barristan and not to Aegon.

 

thanks for sharing your thoughts Malgoth, i'll be re-reading & thinking on these!

[Wolf's Bane]

My own theory says Illyrio Mopatis is hiding something from Varys.  Young Griff is a Blackfyre.  The magister is a Blackfyre supporter.  Varys does not know.  He believes YG is a Targaryen. 

There are plenty of Blackfyre bastard descendants in Essos.  A man with resources can pick up a baby boy easily. 

[Malgoth]

10 hours ago, Wolf's Bane said:

My own theory says Illyrio Mopatis is hiding something from Varys.  Young Griff is a Blackfyre.  The magister is a Blackfyre supporter.  Varys does not know.  He believes YG is a Targaryen. 

There are plenty of Blackfyre bastard descendants in Essos.  A man with resources can pick up a baby boy easily. 

Illyrio and Varys on the same page wherever their plan is. We don't have evidence which suggests otherwise. Also, I don't think that there a lot of Blackfyres out there : Lysono Maar is a quite suspicious character, but so almost all the new ones in the books.

It is probable, that Aegon a Blackfyre, but not a fact. If he was a Black Dragon, he would be under care of Golden Company,  Anyway, there also a big question : how Aegon would prove to a captains of GC that he is a Blackfyre, considering the fact that he grew up outside of the mercenaries? It's the same thing with proving that he is a son of Rhaegar Targaryen and Elia Martell.

Funny would be is Varys/Illyrio sold GC that Aegon is a Blackfyre, to 7K they sold that he's a son of Rhaegar and Elia, and in truth, Aegon is a Brightflame.

[Hodor the Articulate]

19 hours ago, Malgoth said:

I'm always was curious why Varys gave Barristan to Dany and not to Aegon.

Why risk revealing everything too early, especially when the chances of anyone buying their story are very low?

[CassDarry]

14 hours ago, Wolf's Bane said:

My own theory says Illyrio Mopatis is hiding something from Varys.  Young Griff is a Blackfyre.  The magister is a Blackfyre supporter.  Varys does not know.  He believes YG is a Targaryen. 

There are plenty of Blackfyre bastard descendants in Essos.  A man with resources can pick up a baby boy easily. 

Varys is the one claiming to have saved Aegon back in Kings Landing surely he would know of this Aegon is Targaryen or not.....unless what you are saying is that Varys switched Aegon for the Pisswater Prince, who later got his head smashed in by Gregor, but when Varys gave Aegon to Illyrio, Illyrio switched Aegon for a Blackfyre baby? 

That would be funny....Man makes plans but gods laugh

[RainwoodOwl]

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think this makes a lot of sense. Are you saying that Rhaegar fathered both Jon on Lyanna and Aegon on Ashara or that Rhaegar only fathered Aegon and Jon's father was someone else? If Jon isn't a Targ it would make no sense for Ned to lie about Jon's parentage and hide him away at Winterfell. 

The bigger problem with Lemore being AD is that in Tyrion's POV on the Shy Maid chapters he makes no mention of Lemore having purple eyes. It would be strange for Tyrion to miss that detail as he definitely notices Young Griff's purple eyes. Tyrion isn't just casually observing Lemore, but actively trying to ascertain her identity so I don't think that detail would be overlooked. For these reasons I find it hard to believe Lemore is Ashara. 

Ashara Dayne is compelling and has a weird way of showing up in tons of fan theories. If she is not dead, I think the H + A = M & J theory is the most compelling, if flawed, theory for AD if she is in fact living. 

[Malgoth]

16 minutes ago, RainwoodOwl said:

Maybe I'm missing something but I don't think this makes a lot of sense. Are you saying that Rhaegar fathered both Jon on Lyanna and Aegon on Ashara or that Rhaegar only fathered Aegon and Jon's father was someone else? If Jon isn't a Targ it would make no sense for Ned to lie about Jon's parentage and hide him away at Winterfell. 

Basically, Rhaegar are a father to both Aegon from Ashara and Jon from Lyanna. To father a child from Ashara was proposed by Elia,  just to avoid situations like that idiocy which happened with Lyanna. It's explains why Ashara faked her death and disappeared, it also creates an intrigue in the possible future books.

29 minutes ago, RainwoodOwl said:

The bigger problem with Lemore being AD is that in Tyrion's POV on the Shy Maid chapters he makes no mention of Lemore having purple eyes. It would be strange for Tyrion to miss that detail as he definitely notices Young Griff's purple eyes. Tyrion isn't just casually observing Lemore, but actively trying to ascertain her identity so I don't think that detail would be overlooked. For these reasons I find it hard to believe Lemore is Ashara. 

Well, Tyrion looked not in the eyes of Lemora. Secondly, if author wrote about Lemora having a purple eyes, there wouldn't be a mystery of Lemora's real identity. So far we only know that she's pretty, has a dark hair and gave birth at some point. Suspiciously enough, Ashara was mentioned several times by Barristan in the same book. And if she is dead, what point for the author to add to the books Barristan's unrequited love for Ashara? It's all looks kinda fishy from the perspective of the plot.

41 minutes ago, RainwoodOwl said:

Ashara Dayne is compelling and has a weird way of showing up in tons of fan theories. If she is not dead, I think the H + A = M & J theory is the most compelling, if flawed, theory for AD if she is in fact living. 

Why would Ashara fake her death or committed suicide for real, if she had alive child which wasn't in danger? Also, to legitimize a bastard can only a king and Robert probably didn’t do that for Meera , which means that she wasn't a bastard. 

P.S.. Whole theory about a secret romance of Ashara and Howland don't really have any evidence yet and there wasn't any sort of an indication about mutual attraction between them, the same goes for Eddard Stark and Ashara.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

On 5/25/2020 at 10:31 AM, Malgoth said:

I'm always was curious why Varys gave Barristan to Dany and not to Aegon.

Well he didn't give Barristan to Dany. Barristan was sent by Illyrio with 3 ships to bring Dany and her meager khalasar and the dragons back to Pentos. But Dany went to Slaver's Bay to get the Unsullied and he stayed with her. 

If Dany had returned to Pentos as was the plan, I imagine she would have been the one making the journey with Aegon and Barristan instead of Tyrion to connect with the GC. 

[RainwoodOwl]

5 hours ago, Malgoth said:

Well, Tyrion looked not in the eyes of Lemora. Secondly, if author wrote about Lemora having a purple eyes, there wouldn't be a mystery of Lemora's real identity. So far we only know that she's pretty, has a dark hair and gave birth at some point. Suspiciously enough, Ashara was mentioned several times by Barristan in the same book. And if she is dead, what point for the author to add to the books Barristan's unrequited love for Ashara? It's all looks kinda fishy from the perspective of the plot.

So Tyrion spent all that time on the Shy Maid and never looked into Ashara's eyes? I don't buy it, nor do I think George omitted Lemore's eyes to cover it up. I agree that there's some fishy stuff involving Ashara but that's not evidence in and of itself for your theory. The whole thing hinges on Ashara getting pregant by Rhaegar as proposed by Elia...there is no evidence for any of that in the text as far as I know.

5 hours ago, Malgoth said:

Why would Ashara fake her death or committed suicide for real, if she had alive child which wasn't in danger? Also, to legitimize a bastard can only a king and Robert probably didn’t do that for Meera , which means that she wasn't a bastard. 

P.S.. Whole theory about a secret romance of Ashara and Howland don't really have any evidence yet and there wasn't any sort of an indication about mutual attraction between them, the same goes for Eddard Stark and Ashara.

While I am not completely convinced by H + A = M & J (especially those who claim Arthur is still alive), there is more circumstantial textual evidence for it than the theory you have presented here. The KotLT story told through Bran's POV in ACoK and onward as well as Barristan's POV in ADWD are the main pieces of evidence for the theory combined the timeline of RR. There is more evidence from Meera's KotLT story in the odd focus on Ashara from Meera who supposedly has no connection to Ashara, than there is for Rhaegar knocking up Ashara let alone at Elia's behest. A lot of attention is paid by Meera to the movements of a supposedly random long-dead Dornish noblewoman. This is fishy to me. Proposing a match between Howland and Ashara is no less speculative as your outlook on Elia.

As the sister of Rhaegar's best friend and strong Targ loyalist, and as someone who may have facilitated the relationship between Rhaegar and Lyanna, it is very possible Ashara and her hypothetical child could be in danger. Viewed this way, she got between Robert and Lyanna and that is a bad space to inhabit. This would also make her less than welcome in Dorne having helped Rhaegar dishonor Elia, the daughter of her family's liege and would be another reason to disappear. These reasons would be enough to go into hiding, particularly after the Sack of KL and Robert's approval of child murder. If Ashara took Arthur's mission and oaths to protect the king's heir seriously, her disappearance would also prevent a lot of unwanted questions surrounding Jon. Thus Ashara could help her brother's mission and prevent him from dying in vain.

None of this is certain and both theories rely on speculation but IMO there's more evidence for H + A = M & J than the theory you present here. I think it's more likely that Aegon is fAegon, the "mummer's dragon" and is not a legitimate Targaryen but a Blackfyre or the descendant of another Targaryen bastard. Although I must admit part of me really wants fAegon to be legitimate and take the Iron Throne while Dany is bogged down in Essos. I like that he is similar to Aegon V (Egg) with more empathy for the smallfolk due to the adversity and skills he had to learn growing up per Kevin's POV in the ADWD epilouge.

[Malgoth]

17 hours ago, RainwoodOwl said:

None of this is certain and both theories rely on speculation but IMO there's more evidence for H + A = M & J than the theory you present here. I think it's more likely that Aegon is fAegon, the "mummer's dragon" and is not a legitimate Targaryen but a Blackfyre or the descendant of another Targaryen bastard. Although I must admit part of me really wants fAegon to be legitimate and take the Iron Throne while Dany is bogged down in Essos. I like that he is similar to Aegon V (Egg) with more empathy for the smallfolk due to the adversity and skills he had to learn growing up per Kevin's POV in the ADWD epilouge.

Well, I didn't tell that my theory is the most possible, just one logical and original proposition which could can tie several other popular theories + give cheap drama for the plot. Just imagine possible future confrontation of the two bastards : Aegon and Jon, it can be called ... "Battle of the bastards" . Just kidding. Still, my theory has a lot of problems, I acknowledging that. I see no visible motives for Varys and Illyrio to help out Ashara and Aegon. Although, I can see why Illyrio wouldn't send his, possible, only son on extremely dangerous quest of conquering foreign throne, while believing to be someone who he is not. Aegon, probably, would have been more happy and safe as Illyrio's heir and future magister, a not adventurer.  I think that way.

Regarding H + A = M & J : well, it's possible, strangest things happened in the published books. I still can't get over over massive retcone and changes which happened in the "the Cursed child", and became a canon. Anyway, in my opinion this theory looks like more like fanservice, rather anything else, just like in many fanfictions where "shy introvert" Eddard, somehow, ended up with the "hot girl" Ashara and all for love. In the situations with (in)possible romance of short-guy-who-can't-defend-himself Howland Reed it looks even more unbelievable. Even if they, somehow, had sex and Ashara got pregnant, she 100% would used moon tea. Well, it's my opinion. Maybe in the Winds of Winter will turn out that they were secretly married all along, but I don't think so.

[RainwoodOwl]

40 minutes ago, Malgoth said:

Well, I didn't tell that my theory is the most possible, just one logical and original proposition which could can tie several other popular theories + give cheap drama for the plot. Just imagine possible future confrontation of the two bastards : Aegon and Jon, it can be called ... "Battle of the bastards" . Just kidding. Still, my theory has a lot of problems, I acknowledging that. I see no visible motives for Varys and Illyrio to help out Ashara and Aegon. Although, I can see why Illyrio wouldn't send his, possible, only son on extremely dangerous quest of conquering foreign throne, while believing to be someone who he is not. Aegon, probably, would have been more happy and safe as Illyrio's heir and future magister, a not adventurer.  I think that way.

Regarding H + A = M & J : well, it's possible, strangest things happened in the published books. I still can't get over over massive retcone and changes which happened in the "the Cursed child", and became a canon. Anyway, in my opinion this theory looks like more like fanservice, rather anything else, just like in many fanfiction "shy introvert" Eddard, somehow, ended up with the "hot girl" Ashara and all for love. In the situations with (in)possible romance of short-guy-who-can't-defend-himself Howland Reed it looks like more unbelievable. Even if they, somehow, had sex and Ashara got pregnant, she 100% would used moon tea. Well, it's my opinion. Maybe in the Winds of Winter will turn out that they were secretly married all along, I just don't think so.

I agree that nothing immediately comes to mind as far as a motivation for Varys or Illyrio to help Ashara. Maybe it would be the case if your theory is correct but as I've said I find this unlikely. I also agree that H + A = M & J would be fanservice, but that is not enough to discount it. We don't know about Howland's looks at all so assuming he's ugly is just that, an assumption. Even if true, there is more to attraction than looks. I didn't mention that the Dornish and Crannogmen have more in common than you might see at first: both are looked down upon by other houses for their guerilla tactics and liberal use of poison. Also it appears House Reed is influenced by Dornish succession customs: re-read the Harvest Feast chapter in Bran's ACoK POV: Meera is introduced first as the Lady of House Reed whereas Jojen is referenced as "her brother" this is very uncommon in Westerosi culture and we have no evidence it is practiced elsewhere in the North. Why with the Reeds? This is not proof, but interesting potential evidence H + A = M & J got me to think through. Indeed, we won't know for sure until we get more published books.

As for fAegon being Illyrio's son - maybe. It would explain Illyrio's heretofore unexplained Targaryen loyalties, but obviously there could be other reasons. At the same time like you point out it would be a significant risk to send his son on such an expedition. Compared to Essos, Westeros is kind of a backwater so I'm not sure why the richest man in Pentos would want to risk so much for the Irone Throne when the Free Cities seem wealthier and more advanced anyway. More power for power's sake? I don't know. It's one of many issues I hope to see resolved in TWoW and ADoS.

[corbon]

6 hours ago, RainwoodOwl said:

Tyrion isn't just casually observing Lemore, but actively trying to ascertain her identity so I don't think that detail would be overlooked.

This is explicitly wrong.

Tyrion explicitly thought to himself that she had secrets, but he had no interest in them.

Quote

Septa Lemore laughed. Like everyone else aboard the Shy Maid, she had her secrets. She was welcome to them. I do not want to know her, I only want to fuck her. She knew it too. As she hung her septa's crystal about her neck, to nestle in the cleft between her breasts, she teased him with a smile.

Very shortly before he left the party, he momentarily thinks there may be more to her after all. He comes up with some questions that might be interesting, but has no time to actually think about what the answers might be.

Quote

"Even the bravest of your forebears kept his Kingsguard close about him in times of peril." Lemore had changed out of her septa's robes into garb more befitting the wife or daughter of a prosperous merchant. Tyrion watched her closely. He had sniffed out the truth beneath the dyed blue hair of Griff and Young Griff easily enough, and Yandry and Ysilla seemed to be no more than they claimed to be, whilst Duck was somewhat less. Lemore, though … Who is she, really? Why is she here? Not for gold, I'd judge. What is this prince to her? Was she ever a true septa?

Haldon took note of her change of garb as well. "What are we to make of this sudden loss of faith? I preferred you in your septa's robes, Lemore." ...

This is a momentary thought, then the conversation moves on, and then Tyrion leaves the party almost immediately after.
In other words, he never actually bothered to think about her in terms of her origins or her purpose. He never was even passively, let alone actively, trying to ascertain her identity. GRRM explicitly had him avoid that topic

[RainwoodOwl]

2 minutes ago, corbon said:

This is explicitly wrong.

Tyrion explicitly thought to himself that she had secrets, but he had no interest in them.

Very shortly before he left the party, he momentarily thinks there may be more to her after all. He comes up with some questions that might be interesting, but has no time to actually think about what the answers might be.

This is a momentary thought, then the conversation moves on, and then Tyrion leaves the party almost immediately after.
In other words, he never actually bothered to think about her in terms of her origins or her purpose. He never was even passively, let alone actively, trying to ascertain her identity. GRRM explicitly had him avoid that topic

I stand corrected, yet you may have lost the forest in the trees. Even though Tyrion's interest in her back story is overstated, does that change the outcome? Lemore is unlikely to be Ashara, as Tyrion would've remarked on purple eyes. That was my main argument, not that Tyrion was obsessed with Ashara's back story. I respect Tyrion's power of observation and for him to miss such a detail seems very unlikely - that is a better way to state it. It's Tyrion's acumen I trust here, not his interest in AD's back story which I overstated.

[corbon]

24 minutes ago, RainwoodOwl said:

I stand corrected, yet you may have lost the forest in the trees. Even though Tyrion's interest in her back story is overstated, does that change the outcome? Lemore is unlikely to be Ashara, as Tyrion would've remarked on purple eyes. That was my main argument, not that Tyrion was obsessed with Ashara's back story. I respect Tyrion's power of observation and for him to miss such a detail seems very unlikely - that is a better way to state it. It's Tyrion's acumen I trust here, not his interest in AD's back story which I overstated.

Well, we can each agree to disagree and think the other has lost the forest in the trees.

If GRRM wants Ashara to remain hidden from us as Lemore, then its not possible for Tyrion to spot the purple eyes. And the truth is, that if you are not looking hard, and the owner is not drawing attention to them, most purple eyes don't actually look purple. So GRRM gave Tyrion an active and explicit disinterest in Lemore's story and kept his eyes explicitly off hers when Tyrion first described her. I consider that to actually be as much of a clue than an anti-clue, since its unusual for us to not get a description of her eyes at all. And literally every other thing we know about her (which is more than it seems actually) can have a parallel drawn to Ashara, many of which we don't learn of until after we met Lemore and have already bypassed any thought of this dark haired woman with stretchmarks as the 'fair' 'maid' Ashara.
I simply find the 'Lemore doesn't have purple eyes because Tyrion didn't notice' argument to be a very very poor argument when looked at closely. But it seems to be the only one people have, so they play it up as huge.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

I consider that to actually be as much of a clue than an anti-clue, since its unusual for us to not get a description of her eyes at all.

Yes, I agree.  One of Sherlock Holmes stories is solved by understanding the lack of a clue - the dog did not bark, because he knew the killer.

What I find interesting is Griff's eye color:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion IV

"You do not know the river. Wait, and you will see."

The bacon turned crisp, the biscuits golden brown. Young Griff stumbled up onto deck yawning. "Good morrow, all." The lad was shorter than Duck, but his lanky build suggested that he had not yet come into his full growth. This beardless boy could have any maiden in the Seven Kingdoms, blue hair or no. Those eyes of his would melt them. Like his sire, Young Griff had blue eyes, but where the father's eyes were pale, the son's were dark. By lamplight they turned black, and in the light of dusk they seemed purple. His eyelashes were as long as any woman's.

Dany's vision of Rhaegar:

Quote

A Clash of Kings - Daenerys IV

Viserys, was her first thought the next time she paused, but a second glance told her otherwise. The man had her brother's hair, but he was taller, and his eyes were a dark indigo rather than lilac. "Aegon," he said to a woman nursing a newborn babe in a great wooden bed. "What better name for a king?"

Indigo is a dark blue color between blue and violet in the spectrum.  Tyrion is far more interest in Griff's identity than Lemore.

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion III

Beyond the tangled willows the road ended abruptly and they turned north for a short ways and rode beside the water, until the brush gave way and they found themselves beside an old stone quay, half-submerged and surrounded by tall brown weeds. "Duck!" came a shout. "Haldon!" Tyrion craned his head to one side, and saw a boy standing on the roof of a low wooden building, waving a wide-brimmed straw hat. He was a lithe and well-made youth, with a lanky build and a shock of dark blue hair. The dwarf put his age at fifteen, sixteen, or near enough to make no matter.

Given Illyrio's sentimentality concerning Griff, I'd say the statue in his garden is not an image of himself as a boy; but an image of Griff surrounded by his cherry picked guardians:

Quote

A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion I

Beneath his window six cherry trees stood sentinel around a marble pool, their slender branches bare and brown. A naked boy stood on the water, poised to duel with a bravo's blade in hand. He was lithe and handsome, no older than sixteen, with straight blond hair that brushed his shoulders. So lifelike did he seem that it took the dwarf a long moment to realize he was made of painted marble, though his sword shimmered like true steel.

 So we get Griff's hair color and approximate age.  Tyrion also remarks that his blue hair emphasizes the blue of his eyes which he deems a smart move:

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A Dance with Dragons - Tyrion V

The dwarf ignored him. "The blue hair makes your eyes seem blue, that's good. And the tale of how you color it in honor of your dead Tyroshi mother was so touching it almost made me cry. Still, a curious man might wonder why some sellsword's whelp would need a soiled septa to instruct him in the Faith, or a chainless maester to tutor him in history and tongues. And a clever man might question why your father would engage a hedge knight to train you in arms instead of simply sending you off to apprentice with one of the free companies. It is almost as if someone wanted to keep you hidden whilst still preparing you for … what? Now, there's a puzzlement, but I'm sure that in time it will come to me. I must admit, you have noble features for a dead boy."

 As a slayer of lies, I give Tyrion full points.  He may well know the Half-Maester's identity after a night of cyvasse and drinking.  But his assessment of Septa Lemore is somewhat blank.  For Tyrion to scrutinize all the other members except Lemore is in a sense; the lack of a clue, a deliberate choice by the author. He doesn't want to reveal who she is quite so soon. He does tell us this:

"You are not the only one must needs hide." Lemore to Aegon  

To me this says that she is well known and recognizable.  Recognizing Lemore puts Aegon and the whole endeavor in jeopardy.  She might also be someone who has been 'disappeared'.

I go back to the prologue of GoT:

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A Game of Thrones - Prologue

"Do the dead frighten you?" Ser Waymar Royce asked with just the hint of a smile.

Gared did not rise to the bait. He was an old man, past fifty, and he had seen the lordlings come and go. "Dead is dead," he said. "We have no business with the dead."

"Are they dead?" Royce asked softly. "What proof have we?"

It's the first question Martin puts to the reader:  How do you know the dead are dead?  What proof do you have?

[Moiraine Sedai]

Rhaegar was not trying to have another heir. He was no longer the heir himself.  The third child does not have to be legit.  If he even had a third child.

Griff can really be Aegon.  He is slightly older than Daenerys.  The age is correct.  The appearance is true Targaryen.  But he can also easily be a fake.  A foundling from Lys.  Blackfyre is possible but not necessary.  

[corbon]

6 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Rhaegar was not trying to have another heir. He was no longer the heir himself. 

Rhaegar was always the heir. 
Viserys was not named heir by Aerys until after Rhaegar's death.

6 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The third child does not have to be legit.  If he even had a third child.

The dragon has three heads.
The Valyrian word for dragon is prince.
A bastard is not a prince.

[LynnS]

13 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Griff can really be Aegon.  He is slightly older than Daenerys.  The age is correct.  The appearance is true Targaryen.  But he can also easily be a fake.  A foundling from Lys.  Blackfyre is possible but not necessary.  

Lys is also a good place to hide Aegon as an infant and toddler because he won't stand out in the population. 

 

[LynnS]

11 hours ago, LynnS said:

On 5/27/2020 at 11:48 AM, Moiraine Sedai said:

Griff can really be Aegon.  He is slightly older than Daenerys.  The age is correct.  The appearance is true Targaryen.  But he can also easily be a fake.  A foundling from Lys.  Blackfyre is possible but not necessary.  

Lys is also a good place to hide Aegon as an infant and toddler because he won't stand out in the population. 

I think Dany was also hidden on Lys for the same reason.  She has a visual memory of the house with the red door and lemon tree and she also has a scent memory of home:

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A Game of Thrones - Daenerys VI

But the Western Market smelled of home.

As Irri and Jhiqui helped her from her litter, she sniffed, and recognized the sharp odors of garlic and pepper, scents that reminded Dany of days long gone in the alleys of Tyrosh and Myr and brought a fond smile to her face. Under that she smelled the heady sweet perfumes of Lys.

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Foundation

Lys was founded as a colony of the Valyrian Freehold on an island in the Summer Sea, near the Broken Arm of Dorne and the Orange Shore of Essos.[24][25] Founded by wealthy merchants and nobles, Lys was mostly a trading colony.[25] Due to its climate, Lys soon became a resort destination of sorts for the dragonlords of old Valyria. The sunny island is fertile with palm and fruit trees, and the surrounding blue-green waters are filled with fish.[1]

Dare we say lemon trees?  Hiding Aegon and Dany in Lys during their early childhoods makes sense  to me.  Varys would also know the territory well since he was also born there.

At some point Aegon is moved from Lys to Illyrio's manse as evidenced by the boy's clothing that Tyrion is given to wear and the statue in the garden of an older Aegon.  Viserys and Dany don't move to Pentos until Dany is of an age to marry off and Aegon has moved on with Jon Connington and co..