Aegon as a king

[Hodor the Articulate]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

In expect that effectively all Riverlords will join Aegon - some because they are Targaryen loyalists at heart (I expect that Harrenhal with Hasty there will join Aegon, especially once the High Septon declares him the rightful king, the Darrys because a Targaryen-Plumm is running things there as captain of the garrison, and the Mootons possibly as well - and there might be others). Those Riverlords hellbent on revenge should also declare for Aegon once their hostages are free because he can support them in their desire to destroy the Freys and Lannisters - something they might not be able to pull off all by themselves.

Darry lands are currently owned by Lancel and Amerei Frey, right? I was going to say that ties them to the Lannisters, but then I remembered Lancel was joining the Sparrows. Amerei seems like a wildcard.

Also, how sympathetic are Riverlords still towards the North, and how will whatever happens with Winterfell affect them? I can't remember if they were into the KiTN stuff or if they were tossed into it by the Stark-Tully alliance.

2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It certainly could turn out that the Yronwoods and possibly other Dornish houses end up in team Dany, especially if Euron were to sack and burn Sunspear, killing Doran and Trystane in the process. If Arianne did not return to Dorne to rule as Princess of Dorne but remained stuck with Aegon in KL or wherever they will be then the Yronwoods and others might decide to join the real dragon(s) rather than oppose them when Dany arrives.

I think this is plausible. There have historically been tensions between the Martells and the Yronwoods, and now Yronwood's heir has died on Doran's mission. They could be swayed to Dany's side if she offers them Dorne.

[Lord Varys]

28 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Darry lands are currently owned by Lancel and Amerei Frey, right? I was going to say that ties them to the Lannisters, but then I remembered Lancel was joining the Sparrows. Amerei seems like a wildcard.

Amerei is irrelevant. She is a Frey. She will do what Harwyn Plumm tells her to or she will die. Probably she and her mother will die, anyway, although if he likes her as much as she allegedly likes him, they might be safe. But the Darrys and their people are Targaryen men, and the Plumms are Targaryens themselves.

28 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Also, how sympathetic are Riverlords still towards the North, and how will whatever happens with Winterfell affect them? I can't remember if they were into the KiTN stuff or if they were tossed into it by the Stark-Tully alliance.

Catelyn 'lives' for revenge. She will want to destroy the Freys and Lannisters, nothing but that should matter to her. And Aegon and his people could help with that. If Cat can free Edmure he will want revenge, too, he has made it perfectly clear how much he hates it that Jaime sat in his father's chair.

Edmure is also a guy who looks out for his people ... meaning he won't go along with secession nonsense. Revenge, yes, but not an eternal war with KL and all his other neighbors. But team up with some other people to burn the West and sack Lannisport? Sure, that's what they might do.

Also, keep in mind the Tullys are not really ruling the Riverlands with much authority. There are more Targaryen loyalists there than we might know, aside from the obvious candidates, and the other lords also tend to do what they want, not what some liege tries to tell them. They didn't care much about Robb, either. One can count on them helping to crush the Freys (once they have their hostages back) and attack the Lannisters, but I don't see any of them going North nor continuing that Stark king experiment. If just meant trouble for them.

28 minutes ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I think this is plausible. There have historically been tensions between the Martells and the Yronwoods, and now Yronwood's heir has died on Doran's mission. They could be swayed to Dany's side if she offers them Dorne.

Well, we'll have to wait and see what the Yronwoods are worth by the time Dany arrives. Many of their men should be with the army in the Boneway, and if they suffer losses in the coming battles they might not be able to offer Dany many men even if they wanted to.

But I don't think Lord Anders is really plotting treason or anything. Could be he ends up disagreeing with this Aegon chap being a good king/having much of a chance, but Doran did everything he could to keep the Yronwoods sweet and everything we know about their relationship is that they were getting along. Lord Anders isn't a Roose Bolton or Walder Frey waiting for his chance.

[Morte]

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

His speech with the Golden Company went so well that he now knows he is charismatic enough to exert power over people, something that he already uses with Connington during the invasion. He listens to his advice, but he decides what he is going to do, not Connington. That trend should continue. If it turns out that Aegon quickly wins the throne and the love of the people because of series of smart decisions and bold moves on his part then this might give him the impression that his invincible/favored by the gods. Such hubris might also be part of the reason why he is going to decide to not wait for Daenerys.

What might drive him nuts not necessarily in an Aerys way but still down an ugly path is when he finds who he actually is and who his true father is. [...]

Quote

So I can see him being responsible for the death of Tommen and/or Myrcella, and I also can see him making grave mistakes (even losing support he already has because of not listening to advices given).

Yeah, that is certainly possible. I expect something foolhardy from him after his coronation, something like a campaign to the Westerlands to sack Lannisport and wrest the Rock from the Lannisters to fill the treasury of the Crown to deal with the money problems. That could then allow Euron to steal the Iron Throne right under his nose while he is in the Riverlands or the West.

Yes, his early success will make him careless and will nourish his, already existing, arrogance. Contrary to Dany or Jon he hasn't seen his plans go wrong or people antagonizing him till now, so he might develop a god-complex when (not if, I think his early success is a given) everything is going too well at first.

Something like a stupid war campaign in Winter might be just such a nonsense he would start - against the council of his true friends like JonCon, but cheered upon by the revenge hungry idiots who will flock to him. If Euron would sack KL in the process (here we would have the destruction of the city, as mirrored in the abomination), and the campaign not going that well, JonCon starting getting seriously ill, and maybe Aegon learning his true parentage, might be where his rule starts to turn sour (and then it will go downhill).

I still wonder if the GC will stay united... In fact your talk about the Tattered Prince made me thinking what would be so important that he could only discuss it with Dany? Pentos? No. This would be a simple bargain, no need to have a four-eye-audience with the queen for that. But what if he not only knows that Aegon is indeed just a Pisswater-prince, but also would be a Blackfyre himself? We are still short a sword, and while we can expect some of the family heirlooms being stored in secret passages on Dragonstone (most likely only accessible with the right blood and magic), Blackfyre was in Essos and may appear on the "wrong" side (from the GC's perspective) in the end. What if the Tattered Prince's price is not (only) the destruction of Pentos, but in fact Summerhall in the end? If Dany's forces would hoist both Dragons, the red and the black, the GC would literary implode, imho.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect that Harrenhal with Hasty there will join Aegon

Yes, but I also see him switching to Dany's side quite early, because of his history with her mother, the stories about her fighting the slavers and maybe the atrocities Aegon will cause till then - and maybe because the situation with the Others will turn even worse till then (I don't expect the battle against them to be in the North, it's already fucking cold there, and Winter has just begun. I think Dany's dream about the battle at the Trident was a true prophetic Dragondream, the final battle will be there). Hasty is one of the wildcards - and a man of principles.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I actually expect that Waters ends up with Euron - as well Salladhor Saan and eventually all the pirates of the Stepstones and the fleets of Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh, too. They will forge a great alliance to stop Dany's armada on their way west

Or the other way around, because the dromonds are quite suitable to get a lot of people across the narrow sea; but no matter, I already dread Martin's attempts to describe a naval battle...

But yes, it's possible - and Braavos would be on Dany's side in this scenario, because if they truly want to end slavery, the dragon queen is the way to go.

5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It certainly could turn out that the Yronwoods and possibly other Dornish houses end up in team Dany

If Dorkstar isn't there just for the LoLz I could also see the Daynes siding with Dany.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

2 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Darry lands are currently owned by Lancel and Amerei Frey, right? I was going to say that ties them to the Lannisters, but then I remembered Lancel was joining the Sparrows. Amerei seems like a wildcard.

Amerei is irrelevant. She is a Frey. She will do what Harwyn Plumm tells her to or she will die. Probably she and her mother will die, anyway, although if he likes her as much as she allegedly likes him, they might be safe. But the Darrys and their people are Targaryen men, and the Plumms are Targaryens themselves.

And don't forget that the true heir to Darry sits in Lannisport/The Rock - according to Genna - "fuming", because her fathers seat wasn't given to her and her sons. Actually, if Aegon does start a senseless revenge campaign against the West, I could see this branch of House Darry siding with Dany, as well as other Lords of the West.

Hell, I think we will see House Lannister itself divided across three camps (Aegon/Dany/Cersei-Euron, if they hook up), not only the three siblings.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Catelyn 'lives' for revenge. She will want to destroy the Freys and Lannisters, nothing but that should matter to her. And Aegon and his people could help with that.

I don't think Lady Stoneheart still thinks in political pattern, she will continue to kill people associated with the Freys, no matter if guilty or not. She may use Aegon insofar as she doesn't murder his men, and the Brotherhood may even work with them, then it comes to the Freys (if the presumed coup  against the Twins isn't already done by that time).

However: Having her as an ally may also make some people around Aegon more wary of him, because as Thoros said, the Brotherhood is no longer about justice, they turned into a bunch of murderers.

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Edmure is also a guy who looks out for his people ... meaning he won't go along with secession nonsense. Revenge, yes,

I still have high hopes for Edmure, inasmuch as I hope he will not jump on the stupid revenge train, now that Winter has come, because he does care about his people, and the last thing the people need at this very moment is another stupid war campaign.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm inclined to believe that neither Mace nor Randyll Tarly will be keen to side with Aegon.

Agree.

The Reach will be divided, some Houses will, as you said, side with Aegon early on, others like the Redwynes or the Hightowers are wildcards; the Hightower might even already be playing it's own game. Tarly doesn't believe Aegon being the true deal already, if he does end in any dragon-camp (which I doubt), I see him, ironically, with Dany. Mace needs someone who can make/keep his daughter queen, so if Aegon does marry Arianne, he is out of question.

But I don't think even House Tyrell will come out of this undivided: We have Loras chilling on Dragonstone (I don't think Aegon will go there, he will be occupied with different things and it is "just a rock") and we have no idea what Willas thinks about his fathers games.

 

[BlackLightning]

On 5/27/2020 at 4:01 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm wondering how you guys think this will play out - if it happens, that is.

I'm asking because there seems to be a consensus developing that Aegon is sort of going to be able to paint Daenerys as an evil foreign invader, etc. but I'm wondering if George is really going to plan to do that.

Yes, if Aegon allies with the High Septon and gets the Seven on his side he should be able to strike a great propaganda coup against the female pretender.

But he doesn't have any dragons, and dragons are a symbol of royal power and legitimacy both - that's why Daemon II wanted to hatch a dragon and Bloodraven feared he might get a living dragon, just as being a dragonrider usually silenced rumors about your illegitimate parentage (in the case of King Aenys and Rhaenyra's elder sons) or forestalled attempted coups (the reason Alyssa Velaryon accepted the marriage of her children was that they had dragons and she and her husband didn't have dragons).

Varys has set up Aegon to be an ideal and caring king, one who will heal the wounds of bleeding Westeros, etc. - but it would be a very uninteresting story if he actually did that and only the arrival of his evil aunt would stop him from building the paradise the eunuch wants him to create. Not to mention that Aegon seems to be a lie to slay in Dany's vision, not an obstacle on her way to power.

In that sense I'm wondering what kind of king you think Aegon is going to be. A tragic hero of sorts, following the example of Robb and Daeron I (in the eyes of some), or is he going to follow in the footsteps of Maegor the Cruel and Aerys II?

Do you expect his rise to the throne to be more or less bloodless, with the problem of Denethor Tommen and Myrcella resolving itself, or will he bloody his hands in a similar manner as Robert Baratheon did when he took the throne? Will people continue to cheer him throughout his reign, or is his reign going to be as short and end in a similar manner as Rhaenyra's short time on the Iron Throne ended?

If he is going to be a great/pretty good king how is this going to work with Stannis in the North, and Euron in the Reach? Even before Dany starts on her Westeros he would likely have to fight enemies on all sides.

And how is the true parentage story going to play out for him? Will this only be an issue when Dany arrives, or is this going to be something Aegon's Westerosi enemies will (successfully) use against him from the start?

And finally - will he become a dragonrider? Can we assume that a Second Dance of the Dragons means both pretenders will have to become dragonriders?

I definitely don't believe Aegon (real or fake) will become a dragonrider. 

I think that Aegon will start off widely beloved (but not entirely beloved, more on that later) at first. But I think he will go the way of a Saera Targaryen, a young Aegon II or even Bittersteel. Lazy and ill-tempered and extremely entitled to the point of embarrassment. He might even be more like Vaegon, a sourpuss who was hopeless inept with a sword and more focused on his hobbies rather than his duties.

While I think Tommen's death might be attributed to Team Aegon (falsely or truthfully), I don't think Team Aegon will have anything to do wit Myrcella's death. So, either one of them dies because of Aegon or neither of them die because of Aegon. That said, I do think that Tommen will die before Myrcella and that Myrcella will follow him as Queen for a short time before dying.

So while not bloodless (how can it be when there are sellswords are swarming the Stormlands and the Iron Throne hasn't even engaged them yet), I do think that Aegon will take King's Landing bloodlessly.

I don't think he will be a great king. He'll be a puppet king for Varys, Arianne, Strickland and Connington (but mainly Varys) to live out their fantasies. Stannis will be hilariously outraged when he hears what has happened but he is too far away to do anything emergent. Euron on the other hand? Euron can and likely will try to run an op on Aegon but Daenerys and Victarion's arrival in addition to the revelation of Theon's survival, Theon's baby by the captain's daughter and Asha's own pregnancy will derail him.

When everyone finds decides to stop fighting and focus on the Others, Dany is going to lead the charge because she has the personality and the might to do so; Aegon does not and will likely stay put for one reason or another. I think Euron will have his way with Aegon and it will be horrific and a bit tragic. But Euron will take the Iron Throne and butcher Aegon while Dany, Jon and friends are busy saving the world.

On 5/27/2020 at 8:28 PM, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Aegon is a skilled swordsman.  That gives him an advantage in the eyes of some.  He does seem impulsive and easily swayed.  I do not think the lad is ready for prime time.  May never be.  He will be putty in the hands of a seductress like Arianne Martell.  And that will be his ruin.  The Martells are crazy. 

Says who?

Varys? Connington? They aren't reliable, unbiased sources.

On 5/28/2020 at 11:14 AM, Lord Varys said:

Well, I'm all in with a scenario that has Aegon winning the throne quickly.

How quick is your definition of quick?

Even if he takes Storm's End and wins the support of the Dornish, that's not enough men to take and hold his wins and he's bound to lose some men of the Golden Company. And the many of the men in the Golden Company are honorless raiders and may prove to be a problem as we saw in the second Arianne sample chapter. He has to be able to get the lords of the Stormlands to lay down their weapons and/or fight for him.

Even if he does, he still has to deal with the armies of the Reach. And then he has to march to King's Landing. All of this during the onset of winter. There are many ways that Aegon can be delayed. Hell, Aegon can pull a Renly and decide to parade himself around southern Westeros as Rhaegar's son and slow-walk his campaign, and evading serious battles. Both he and Renly could reasonably afford to do that. But Aegon, unlike Renly, absolutely needs to do that. People need to know what is going on and news travels slow. Again, Stannis is very, very far away and very, very busy, Euron doesn't have the strength for military campaigns that far inland, Littlefinger is pretty much snowed in and is also very busy, Walder can't even keep his own backyard clean and Cersei doesn't have the strength at all. Not in King's Landing.

The only one who can challenge Aegon is Mace. And Mace is simple enough to run circles around but he's no pushover.

Cersei and Kevan both make it clear that they could squeeze out another western army but they have to be there to do that. They can't do that from the other side of the country. I mean, they could but it would taken an unreasonably longer amount of time to do so. Especially in winter.

Did the Golden Company even bring enough provisions? Because at this point, no one is growing food in Westeros outside of near-insignificant root vegetables.

There are just lots of reasons and ways Aegon can be delayed.

And so what if he gets to King's Landing and gets a chance to rule from the Iron Throne for a little bit before Dany comes? The North is not going to submit to him and the Riverlands can't.

[Hodor the Articulate]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Amerei is irrelevant. She is a Frey. She will do what Harwyn Plumm tells her to or she will die. Probably she and her mother will die, anyway, although if he likes her as much as she allegedly likes him, they might be safe. But the Darrys and their people are Targaryen men, and the Plumms are Targaryens themselves.

I'd forgotten she was horny for Hardstone I guess she'll end up tagging along with him, whoever he ends up declaring for.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I don't think Lord Anders is really plotting treason or anything. Could be he ends up disagreeing with this Aegon chap being a good king/having much of a chance, but Doran did everything he could to keep the Yronwoods sweet and everything we know about their relationship is that they were getting along. Lord Anders isn't a Roose Bolton or Walder Frey waiting for his chance.

I wasn't suggesting that, merely that there is the potential for tensions to be stoked. I can't believe that Dany would be unable to win even one house given Aegon's credibility issues. Then again, maybe that's what pushes her north to the Others, like Stannis.

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Says who?

Varys? Connington? They aren't reliable, unbiased sources.

He probably is skilled after all the training he's had. But he's also only been in controlled conditions.

[James Fenimore Cooper XXII]

On 5/28/2020 at 5:02 PM, Lord Varys said:

KL won't be sacked. The people will open the gates and welcome the Targaryen king. It is going to go like the show Larys Strong threw for the Lads, although much more genuine. The Kingslanders are Targaryen people, they won't defend their city against a Targaryen pretender.

The only problem are the Tyrell men in the city, but they might refuse to fight, too, especially if Mace is killed or imprisoned during the battle that's going to take place before Aegon marches against KL.

Margaery won't be an option for Aegon. She is damaged goods now, even if she lives.

Marching to Oldtown makes no sense for Aegon, especially not if he isn't invited. He wants the Iron Throne, not clash with some Ironborn pirate king while he has no ships. He could only lose if he were to offer help the Hightowers. Instead, he will profit from the fact that the Reach is threatened by the Ironborn because that will not allow the Tyrells to focus too much on him while Tommen and Myrcella yet live.

I don't know about that.  The Lannisters control the military forces inside the city.  A prolonged siege is to be expected before KL can be taken.

 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

I don't know about that.  The Lannisters control the military forces inside the city.  A prolonged siege is to be expected before KL can be taken.

The Lannisters control nothing. Their forces are down to a couple of hundred guardsmen and Cersei doesn't even know who the new commander of the City Watch is, much less how to control him. Chances are that even that guy, Humfrey Waters, is a Targaryen loyalist. He was captain of the Dragon Gate he was named commander.

The Tyrells have 30,000-40,000 men inside and outside the city, but some of many of them will march against Aegon and not be around to keep the peace in the city - which is pretty tense with thousands of sparrows and Poor Fellows and Warrior's Sons gathering around the High Septon. KL is a city of hundreds of thousands of people, and FaB showed how powerful and destructive a pupblic uprising can be. A city isn't a battlefield, so the Tyrell knights and men-at-arms won't be worth anything if they are forced to fight the Kingslanders in the streets - and the rank-and-fire would likely join the uprising, not fight the people.

There are, of course, scenarios imaginable where Aegon would have difficulties taking the city, but George would have the Lannisters and Tyrells ruin everything for themselves by pushing them into this queen fight if this is not supposed to have a payoff on a larger level. The way to go if the plan was some kind of prolonged siege or a continued rule of the Lannister-Tyrell would be to strengthen their united power in AFfC and ADwD, not weaken them on all fronts.

Now we would have to imagine Aegon losing against the Tyrells, possibly losing many men when taking Storm's End, and the Faith and KL rally behind King Tommen, Dorne and the Stormlands not joining Aegon, and nobody in the Reach or the Riverlands siding with him, either.

All that is not very likely. Instead, we got essentially a long catalogue of hints and buildup for Aegon being able to call on help from all sides, military support, idelogical and propaganda support - and last but not least Varys' support, who might singlehandedly kill every crucial person in KL who is trying to stop Aegon.

If he can kill Kevan and Pycelle, he can kill anyone.

[BlackLightning]

16 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

I'd forgotten she was horny for Hardstone I guess she'll end up tagging along with him, whoever he ends up declaring for.

I wasn't suggesting that, merely that there is the potential for tensions to be stoked. I can't believe that Dany would be unable to win even one house given Aegon's credibility issues. Then again, maybe that's what pushes her north to the Others, like Stannis.

He probably is skilled after all the training he's had. But he's also only been in controlled conditions.

In other words, Aegon grew up in a petri dish.

\end

[BlackLightning]

On 5/28/2020 at 4:51 PM, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Dorne is culturally very different from most of Westeros.  It is not a good move for them to war with anybody.  If they go to war, they go to war alone.  They can side with Aegon at least get the Golden Company on their side.  If Cersei doesn't give them a better offer.  Which she or the Tyrells can easily do.  Sellswords are fickle. 

The best possible alliance for Aegon is with Queen Daenerys.  He rejected that.  The next best is a marriage to the Tyrells.  The vision of the mummer's dragon will take place in Oldtown.  You see, if he were to attack KL and even if he wins, the people are not going to be cheering.  Their shops, homes, properties will have been destroyed. They won't appreciate getting sacked by the Dornish and the GC.   But if he were to attack the Ironborn and win a victory in Oldtown, yes.  I can see the crowds feeling good. 

And ethnically different. Don't forget ethnically different.

It matters.

I think it's also worth mentioning that it seems like there have been worshipers of the red god in Dorne for quite some time. They've been in Dorne longer than they've been anywhere else. Should be interesting how that plays out when Dany comes with red priests.

But you certainly are right about one thing though. Aegon and Friends will rue the day that they listened to Tyrion Lannister and didn't immediately join Daenerys Targaryen in Meereen.

As a matter of fact, it just dawned on me. Holy shit! When Daenerys comes and unleashes her hordes on Team Aegon with Tyrion as her Hand, Tyrion is going to look like a total manipulative bastard. Holy shit!

There's no way of slicing it. Team Aegon is going to look at Tyrion and say, "That damn dwarf planned this. We took him in and made him one of us but he double-crossed us because wanted her all to herself. She is his puppet."

And when the time for that comes, will they even be wrong in saying so? Because if we're all honest, we all know that Tyrion wants vengeance and that he has his own agenda. Totally not going to have Dany's best interests at heeart.

On 5/29/2020 at 2:19 AM, Mithras said:

By rights, Hotah should die at his first chapter of TWoW. If GRRM decides to use him for exposition that he can't do by other means, he might get another chapter. But beyond that, giving more chapters to a mere camera is B A D W R I T I N G. The man doesn't have an arc. The man doesn't even have character.

LOL

The Camera that Rides.

As of now, Areo Hotah is a camera, yes. That's true but he's a camera with a purpose. The purpose is to cast a light on the unrest and political schemes in Dorne. Which tells me that something really big and really bad is going to happen in Dorne soon. Either this in book, the next or both.

I am willing to bet money on the belief that we get a dual confirmation that R+L=J in an Areo POV and a Bran POV. Bran will see it firsthand through the weirwood net Areo will get it secondhand from more than one eyewitness account.

I am also willing to bet money that Ashara Dayne is not dead and the entire Dayne family is not only in on the Jon Snow secret but that they are up to something. Gerold Dayne is not an idiot. There's no reason that he would do what he did and then flee for the lands of House Dayne if he truly acted alone.

5 hours ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

I don't know about that.  The Lannisters control the military forces inside the city.  A prolonged siege is to be expected before KL can be taken.

Under normal circumstances? You would think so.

If Cersei has her way and justice is not served, the city will explode. If something happens to Tommen, the city will explode. If the High Septon takes this religiously-inspired peasant's revolt too far, the city will make the era of the Salem Witch Trials seem mundane. If something happens to Mace Tyrell (or, less likely Randyll Tarly) and a decent fraction of the Tyrell men with him, then the armies defending and keeping order in King's Landing are significantly weakened. If Euron pulls an ace out of his sleeve and something really bad happens to both the Redwyne Fleet and Oldtown, then the armies defending and keeping order in King's Landing are significantly weakened.

Kevan Lannister is dead. Mace Tyrell and Cersei Lannister are not good leaders. Margaery Tyrell can't even rely on the years of experience Cersei Lannister has so she can't even come close to being a good leader. Randyll Tarly is a better leader but to call him a good leader may be a bit of a stretch.

By the time, Aegon comes knocking, the city will probably be figuratively bleeding out

[frenin]

Lmao, how people hate the guy for not good reason.

[Aldarion]

On 5/27/2020 at 10:01 PM, Lord Varys said:

I'm wondering how you guys think this will play out - if it happens, that is.

I'm asking because there seems to be a consensus developing that Aegon is sort of going to be able to paint Daenerys as an evil foreign invader, etc. but I'm wondering if George is really going to plan to do that.

Yes, if Aegon allies with the High Septon and gets the Seven on his side he should be able to strike a great propaganda coup against the female pretender.

But he doesn't have any dragons, and dragons are a symbol of royal power and legitimacy both - that's why Daemon II wanted to hatch a dragon and Bloodraven feared he might get a living dragon, just as being a dragonrider usually silenced rumors about your illegitimate parentage (in the case of King Aenys and Rhaenyra's elder sons) or forestalled attempted coups (the reason Alyssa Velaryon accepted the marriage of her children was that they had dragons and she and her husband didn't have dragons).

Varys has set up Aegon to be an ideal and caring king, one who will heal the wounds of bleeding Westeros, etc. - but it would be a very uninteresting story if he actually did that and only the arrival of his evil aunt would stop him from building the paradise the eunuch wants him to create. Not to mention that Aegon seems to be a lie to slay in Dany's vision, not an obstacle on her way to power.

In that sense I'm wondering what kind of king you think Aegon is going to be. A tragic hero of sorts, following the example of Robb and Daeron I (in the eyes of some), or is he going to follow in the footsteps of Maegor the Cruel and Aerys II?

Do you expect his rise to the throne to be more or less bloodless, with the problem of Denethor Tommen and Myrcella resolving itself, or will he bloody his hands in a similar manner as Robert Baratheon did when he took the throne? Will people continue to cheer him throughout his reign, or is his reign going to be as short and end in a similar manner as Rhaenyra's short time on the Iron Throne ended?

If he is going to be a great/pretty good king how is this going to work with Stannis in the North, and Euron in the Reach? Even before Dany starts on her Westeros he would likely have to fight enemies on all sides.

And how is the true parentage story going to play out for him? Will this only be an issue when Dany arrives, or is this going to be something Aegon's Westerosi enemies will (successfully) use against him from the start?

And finally - will he become a dragonrider? Can we assume that a Second Dance of the Dragons means both pretenders will have to become dragonriders?

Daenerys appears to be taking a darker turn, at least if her inner thoughts in the wastes are indication. So I don't think Aegon will need to paint her as a foreign tyrant - she will do a good job of painting herself.

And Aegon will be able to get a dragon. Regardless of whether he is a mainline Targ or Blackfyre, he is still a Targaryen, which means that he can tame a dragon. In fact, I can easily see things going as Daenerys: "Aegon is a pretender" > Aegon: *tames a dragon* > Daenerys: "He stole my dragon!!!" > Dance of Dragons 2.0.

As for Aegon's reign, I do not think it will be bloodless. Problem isn't Aegon himself - he seems a decent guy - problem is Jon Connington. His inner thoughts are going into rather Tywin-like direction. We know what Tywin's men did after they took King's Landing, especially re: Aegon and Rhaenys. And George Martin seems rather fond of history repeating itself, so what we will likely see is Golden Company gaining access to King's Landing by trickery, followed by Connington slaughtering (what remains of) the Lannister royal house on Aegon's behalf, much like Tywin did on Robert's. Despite that, Aegon himself will likely be cheered at the beginning: "cloth dragons" Daenerys sees are a good indication of such.

As for Stannis and Euron, yes, he will have to fight them - or Euron at least. I do believe he will win in these wars. I am too lazy to type out my reasoning, so I will just place a link on a theory which follows more-or-less the same thought process I had, though that post is more detailed.

I do not think his true parentage will matter at all. Everyone will see what they want to see: Daenerys wants the Iron Throne so she will see him as an impostor. People in Westeros want hope, so they will see him as the real deal. And this is why I want him to prove himself a good king. Daenerys, Stannis, Robb, they all believed themselves to be rightful kings based on their bloodline. But take a look at history. Some of the best rulers in history were not dynastic at all. Roman Empire never developed a strict dynastic principle, and even when they did have dynasties, some of best emperors were either extradynastic (Phillip the Arab, Diocletian, Nikephoros II. Phokas, John I. Tzimiskes) or founders of new dynasties (Vespasian, Nerva, Basil I. Macedonian). In fact, the Nerva-Antonine and Macedonian dynasties, both of which may put a claim to being the best dynasty that ruled the Roman Empire, played fast and loose with hereditary principle - former was based wholly on adoption, while latter had huge number of extradynastic emperors. That being said, he could also easily end up ineffective ruler: for all his education, he has no prior experience with management (quite unlike all the emperors I listed previously with the exception of Basil II. who actually became a very good ruler despite not having any experience prior to ascension to throne). Now, as I noted, there were rulers who turned out effective despite not being prepared for rule. But Aegon had been prepared, by Illyrio - which again can be an argument both for and against him turning out an effective ruler. On one hand, Illyrio is a magister and so likely has political experience; on the other hand, he will have been limited in his ability to prepare Aegon, and even his idea of education (from what we learn) is not exactly optimal for shaping a ruler. So it could go either way. What matters is "shadows on the wall": who people believe him to be.

And because of that, he is a massive wench in Daenerys' plans overall. Her claim to the Iron Throne is based on the idea of Baratheons as "usurpers". So a war against Baratheons or Lannisters would be easy to swallow, for her and for everyone else. But Aegon is (believed to be) Rhaegar's son. He is ahead of her in line of succession, and thus his very existence invalidates Daenerys' whole worldview. Even if doubt does exist with regards to his parentage, Daenerys is hardly in position to push the issue, considering she has vested interest in believing him to be fake. It is the same situation as with Stannis: Stannis had good reason to believe that Robert's children are not in fact Robert's, but he was the one who will have gained the most from it. So nobody believed him - and with a good reason.

On 5/28/2020 at 5:14 PM, Lord Varys said:

Aegon has no ships to challenge Euron at sea, and he is not likely to get any. Like Rhaenyra did when she took the throne he will seize an empty treasury, causing him a lot of problems in that department. Illyrio might be able to help him out with money for a time, but the Iron Bank signed a contract with Stannis and will see him as the rightful king now while he yet lives, not Aegon.

 

Actualy, he is likely to get ships. I think that Aurane Waters is actually Varys' agent, and even if not, pirates are easily bought.

[Loose Bolt]

I see Aegon having similar role than Pyrrhus of Epirus . Or he will gain some victories but price of those will be very high and he will NOT gain enough support to secure his crown. But unfortunately for him and many of his supporters (unlike Pyrrhus) he will not abort his invasion soon enough to safe himself and so he and his army will be wiped out.

[BlackLightning]

10 hours ago, frenin said:

Lmao, how people hate the guy for not good reason.

I don't hate him but you have to admit that he is an outside agitator who may be stealing Dany's thunder.

It also doesn't help how arrogant he is.

[frenin]

5 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't hate him but you have to admit that he is an outside agitator who may be stealing Dany's thunder.

Yeah so...  We'll see him develop in the next book but he seems pretty alright by now.

 

5 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

It also doesn't help how arrogant he is.

No more arrogant than any of the other players. And our sweet Dany has compared herself to a god more than once and we're waiting for her to miserably fail...

[Lord Varys]

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Daenerys appears to be taking a darker turn, at least if her inner thoughts in the wastes are indication. So I don't think Aegon will need to paint her as a foreign tyrant - she will do a good job of painting herself.

Killing slavers is not necessarily going to be seen as a bad thing in Westeros. There is a reason why slavery is not permitted in Westeros.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And Aegon will be able to get a dragon. Regardless of whether he is a mainline Targ or Blackfyre, he is still a Targaryen, which means that he can tame a dragon. In fact, I can easily see things going as Daenerys: "Aegon is a pretender" > Aegon: *tames a dragon* > Daenerys: "He stole my dragon!!!" > Dance of Dragons 2.0.

The chances for Aegon getting a dragon are pretty slim at this point. It is not impossible, but it is not likely going to happen in the foreseeable future. He turned his back on the dragons, quite literally, and that's going to come back to haunt him.

Even if he had sufficient dragonlord blood to claim a dragon - he would not be able to do so while those dragons have other riders. And Viserion and Rhaegal will get riders back in Slaver's Bay. If nobody claimed them they are not likely to go to Westeros with the gang. You cannot transport adult dragons by ship, and both dragons have grown wild now thanks to their imprisonment and flight. If they get no riders they would remain in their lairs on the pyramids they claimed.

One can imagine that one of Dany's dragons is claimed by a rider who then conveniently dies so Aegon can claim the dragon, but that would be a pretty complicated story. Could happen, but at this point I'd not put any money on this scenario.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

As for Aegon's reign, I do not think it will be bloodless. Problem isn't Aegon himself - he seems a decent guy - problem is Jon Connington. His inner thoughts are going into rather Tywin-like direction. We know what Tywin's men did after they took King's Landing, especially re: Aegon and Rhaenys. And George Martin seems rather fond of history repeating itself, so what we will likely see is Golden Company gaining access to King's Landing by trickery, followed by Connington slaughtering (what remains of) the Lannister royal house on Aegon's behalf, much like Tywin did on Robert's. Despite that, Aegon himself will likely be cheered at the beginning: "cloth dragons" Daenerys sees are a good indication of such.

Well, crushing some Lannister loyalists isn't that much blood. The question was more whether he is going to have to sack the city to conquer it, or whether people will invite him in. Murdering Tommen and/or Myrcella also counts as bloody, of course, and would likely cost him considerable sympathies. But it would still not be a sack.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

As for Stannis and Euron, yes, he will have to fight them - or Euron at least. I do believe he will win in these wars. I am too lazy to type out my reasoning, so I will just place a link on a theory which follows more-or-less the same thought process I had, though that post is more detailed.

If Aegon and Euron were to ever clash in direct battle there is only one victor imaginable - Euron. The man will eat Aegon alive - and Connington, Varys, Illyrio, and the Golden Company, too. They have no clue what he is.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

I do not think his true parentage will matter at all. Everyone will see what they want to see: Daenerys wants the Iron Throne so she will see him as an impostor. People in Westeros want hope, so they will see him as the real deal. And this is why I want him to prove himself a good king. Daenerys, Stannis, Robb, they all believed themselves to be rightful kings based on their bloodline. But take a look at history. Some of the best rulers in history were not dynastic at all. Roman Empire never developed a strict dynastic principle, and even when they did have dynasties, some of best emperors were either extradynastic (Phillip the Arab, Diocletian, Nikephoros II. Phokas, John I. Tzimiskes) or founders of new dynasties (Vespasian, Nerva, Basil I. Macedonian). In fact, the Nerva-Antonine and Macedonian dynasties, both of which may put a claim to being the best dynasty that ruled the Roman Empire, played fast and loose with hereditary principle - former was based wholly on adoption, while latter had huge number of extradynastic emperors. That being said, he could also easily end up ineffective ruler: for all his education, he has no prior experience with management (quite unlike all the emperors I listed previously with the exception of Basil II. who actually became a very good ruler despite not having any experience prior to ascension to throne). Now, as I noted, there were rulers who turned out effective despite not being prepared for rule. But Aegon had been prepared, by Illyrio - which again can be an argument both for and against him turning out an effective ruler. On one hand, Illyrio is a magister and so likely has political experience; on the other hand, he will have been limited in his ability to prepare Aegon, and even his idea of education (from what we learn) is not exactly optimal for shaping a ruler. So it could go either way. What matters is "shadows on the wall": who people believe him to be.

Royal power in Westeros is inherited, not claimed by lowborn thugs who rose high in a nonexisting standing military.

In Westeros Aegon's parentage and identity will be a very serious issue - both for his allies and supporters and his enemies. And we will learn who he actually is, and this will affect the plot.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And because of that, he is a massive wench in Daenerys' plans overall. Her claim to the Iron Throne is based on the idea of Baratheons as "usurpers". So a war against Baratheons or Lannisters would be easy to swallow, for her and for everyone else. But Aegon is (believed to be) Rhaegar's son. He is ahead of her in line of succession, and thus his very existence invalidates Daenerys' whole worldview. Even if doubt does exist with regards to his parentage, Daenerys is hardly in position to push the issue, considering she has vested interest in believing him to be fake. It is the same situation as with Stannis: Stannis had good reason to believe that Robert's children are not in fact Robert's, but he was the one who will have gained the most from it. So nobody believed him - and with a good reason.

The difference there is that Stannis didn't have any dragons or Dothraki. Dany will have both. And a lot of other muscle, too. Not to mention that her identity and parentage is universally accepted, whereas Aegon pretends to be a boy who Lord Tywin's thugs murdered as all of Westeros knows. Dany wouldn't be Stannis pointing with a finger at the children Robert Baratheon raised as his own, Dany would be a powerful, trueborn Targaryen with dragons pointing out that her nephew died decades ago as an infant child.

If Aegon has early success many people will believe that he is the real deal - will want to believe that very much. But when he starts to make mistakes or things go wrong then they can and will revisit his parentage quickly enough. If he had the dragons and the Targaryen wife as they wanted him to have this wouldn't work, but he doesn't.

Think about how quickly Rogar Baratheon started to change his view on Jaehaerys I - first he was a great natural king with a much better claim to the throne than Aerea and Rhaena. And then, when he started to make mistakes (or rather: do things he didn't like) he was not worthy of the throne and didn't have that strong a claim after all. And Jaehaerys I was the son of a king and the grandson of Aegon the Conqueror, not some boy merely claiming to be the dead grandson of a king.

11 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Actualy, he is likely to get ships. I think that Aurane Waters is actually Varys' agent, and even if not, pirates are easily bought.

How can a couple of dromonds stand against hundreds of Ironborn ships? The guy buying those pirates will be Euron Greyjoy, not Aegon. Who has nothing to offer them. If the Ironborn armada moves east and enters the waters of the Stepstones (as they should if Euron actually wants the Iron Throne) then those pirates will have to join him or die. Nobody can protect them from Euron.

[BlackLightning]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

Yeah so...  We'll see him develop in the next book but he seems pretty alright by now.

 

No more arrogant than any of the other players. And our sweet Dany has compared herself to a god more than once and we're waiting for her to miserably fail...

No, you're wrong.

"Any of the other players" are not arrogant. They are not all arrogant.

Catelyn played the game and she was not arrogant. Jon Snow was also not arrogant. Ned was forced to play the game and played it he did....but not without being arrogant. Doran Martell is also not arrogant. Neither Genna nor Kevan Lannister strike me as arrogant. Barbrey Dustin and Wyman Manderly are all playing their own game but there's no real arrogance to be detected there...bitterness yes but not anger. Nothing Robb Stark did was done out of a set of arrogant beliefs.

The big gameplayers are arrogant but not all the gameplayers are arrogant.

And why do people want Dany to fail so bad?

Do they like the status quo of people being able to treat other people as mere pieces of property? If you want Dany to fail, then you want the Stark kids to fail because their goals are literally the exact same. They are all children who have been made homeless orphans by indifferent and vengeful people.

[frenin]

42 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

No, you're wrong.

"Any of the other players" are not arrogant. They are not all arrogant.

Catelyn played the game and she was not arrogant. Jon Snow was also not arrogant. Ned was forced to play the game and played it he did....but not without being arrogant. Doran Martell is also not arrogant. Neither Genna nor Kevan Lannister strike me as arrogant. Barbrey Dustin and Wyman Manderly are all playing their own game but there's no real arrogance to be detected there...bitterness yes but not anger. Nothing Robb Stark did was done out of a set of arrogant beliefs.

Cat is pretty arrogant herself, Agot Jon was an arrogant entitled brat, you're right that Ned isn't tho. So is Robb, if you need to go as far as Manderly...

 

43 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

And why do people want Dany to fail so bad?

People want Dany to fail?? Where?? The main reason Aegon is so hated is because in one stroke he steals the spot a large part of the fandom desired it went for Dany or Jon. You only need to take a look on this thread.

 

 

46 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Do they like the status quo of people being able to treat other people as mere pieces of property? If you want Dany to fail, then you want the Stark kids to fail because their goals are literally the exact same. They are all children who have been made homeless orphans by indifferent and vengeful people.

That's a fallacy.

Dany was not made an orphan by indifferent people, vengeful yes and for goddam good reasons, her mother died in childbirth and his father was a bloody handed tyrant.

Do you know who was made an orphan by indifferent and vengeful people?? Aegon.

[Hodor the Articulate]

22 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Daenerys is hardly in position to push the issue, considering she has vested interest in believing him to be fake. It is the same situation as with Stannis: Stannis had good reason to believe that Robert's children are not in fact Robert's, but he was the one who will have gained the most from it. So nobody believed him - and with a good reason.

Doesn't Aegon also have a vested interest in pushing his story? No one believed Stannis because, without proof, his claims seemed implausible. The more implausible story here would be Aegon's, not Dany's.

I think some people will see what they want to see, not because he gives them hope but because Aegon looks kingly, similar to Daemon Blackfyre gaining support through his appearance and athleticism. Others will support him because they believe he can win. Everyone is going to have personal doubts about his background though, whether they're with him or not.

On 5/31/2020 at 10:20 PM, Aldarion said:

And this is why I want him to prove himself a good king. Daenerys, Stannis, Robb, they all believed themselves to be rightful kings based on their bloodline.

Aegon is literally basing his claim on blood. The only difference between him and those you list is that he isn't actually of the royal line.

Anyway, I think the point of his character is that you can't necessarily mould anyone into a good king. For all his training, he froze up the first time he encountered real danger and all it took was one conversation to manipulate him.

12 hours ago, frenin said:

People want Dany to fail?? Where?? The main reason Aegon is so hated is because in one stroke he steals the spot a large part of the fandom desired it went for Dany or Jon. You only need to take a look on this thread.

Does anybody really believe he'll survive past the next book? I think most people don't regard him as consequential enough to hate him. I certainly don't see any hate in this thread.

[LynnS]

1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Does anybody really believe he'll survive past the next book? I think most people don't regard him as consequential enough to hate him. I certainly don't see any hate in this thread.

People once said the same thing about Euron, that he was a bit player who wouldn't amount to much.  Same with Brienne.  I don't actually hate characters.  But some of them scare the crap out of me.

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Does anybody really believe he'll survive past the next book? I think most people don't regard him as consequential enough to hate him. I certainly don't see any hate in this thread.

No, in this thread you get increasingly convuluted schemes so he can be an easy picking for Dany to the point that it's just funny. That and that he'll become cruel and vain etc.

So far, only @Alyn Oakenfist is the only one that tells otherwise.