Aegon as a king

[Morte]

18 minutes ago, frenin said:

No, in this thread you get increasingly convuluted schemes so he can be an easy picking for Dany to the point that it's just funny. That and that he'll become cruel and vain etc.

No. But he will make mistakes, and of course he - or at least his officers - will make decisions that will not look good for everyone (this is a war?). Else there would be no chance of a Second Dance, as nobody would side with Dany. It's about who would choose which side and what would be needed for them to do this (I'm not a big fan of the Second Dance scenario, but if Martin wants to go that way, he has to provide something to make it work).

If however one thinks of Aegon as the perfect prince in shiny armor, because he was educated in a Petri dish, one wasn't paying attention to history: Humanity is writing mirrors for princes since approximately four-thousand years, with increasing frequency since Classical Antiquity; it's not as if you wouldn't educate your successor on how a ruler should be (the ideal, not just the day-to-day-work), but still you mostly get mediocre idiots (and even the best fail more often than not, at least with some of their goals). Simply because you can't make a good ruler; you can provide the foundation, but it may not be enough, while others who did not get the education can indeed do quite well (see Maria Theresia, for example - whose father did make sure to have his daughter follow him by the Pragmatic Sanction, but "forgot" that it may have been logical to educate her like he would have a son, if he wanted to make her his successor  ).

And I don't think he will die early, nor that he will be easy picking. I just think that if we will see another Dance of the Dragons, we will see the remaining power blocks (Reach, West, Dorne) splitter into different camps, as stated in my posting above.

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

No. But he will make mistakes, and of course he - or at least his officers - will make decisions that will not look good for everyone (this is a war?). Else there would be no chance of a Second Dance, as nobody would side with Dany. It's about who would choose which side and what would be needed for them to do this (I'm not a big fan of the Second Dance scenario, but if Martin wants to go that way, he has to provide something to make it work).

Hmmm no, Dance implies a war between dragons, lords picking sides is not needed. Dany has already a powerful army and she is not going to ask for what he believes is hers.

 

 

1 hour ago, Morte said:

If however one thinks of Aegon as the perfect prince in shiny armor, because he was educated in a Petri dish, one wasn't paying attention to history: Humanity is writing mirrors for princes since approximately four-thousand years, with increasing frequency since Classical Antiquity; it's not as if you wouldn't educate your successor on how a ruler should be (the ideal, not just the day-to-day-work), but still you mostly get mediocre idiots (and even the best fail more often than not, at least with some of their goals). Simply because you can't make a good ruler; you can provide the foundation, but it may not be enough, while others who did not get the education can indeed do quite well (see Maria Theresia, for example - whose father did make sure to have his daughter follow him by the Pragmatic Sanction, but "forgot" that it may have been logical to educate her like he would have a son, if he wanted to make her his successor  ).

I don't really know what has that to do with whether Young G is going to be great or not, it depends entirely on Martin and the story he wants to tell, the fact that other well educated kids became a disappointment is simply irrelevant.

 

 

 

[Aldarion]

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Killing slavers is not necessarily going to be seen as a bad thing in Westeros. There is a reason why slavery is not permitted in Westeros.

 

I am talking about her vision in the desert. By the time she comes - or even starts on towards - Westeros, she will be fed up with compromise, and will likely burn everything in her path. Not just slavers - anyone who is an obstacle.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The chances for Aegon getting a dragon are pretty slim at this point. It is not impossible, but it is not likely going to happen in the foreseeable future. He turned his back on the dragons, quite literally, and that's going to come back to haunt him.

Even if he had sufficient dragonlord blood to claim a dragon - he would not be able to do so while those dragons have other riders. And Viserion and Rhaegal will get riders back in Slaver's Bay. If nobody claimed them they are not likely to go to Westeros with the gang. You cannot transport adult dragons by ship, and both dragons have grown wild now thanks to their imprisonment and flight. If they get no riders they would remain in their lairs on the pyramids they claimed.

One can imagine that one of Dany's dragons is claimed by a rider who then conveniently dies so Aegon can claim the dragon, but that would be a pretty complicated story. Could happen, but at this point I'd not put any money on this scenario.

Problem is, if he does not get a dragon, there will be no "Dance of Dragons 2.0" - which Martin IIRC had outright stated will happen - and even disregarding that, he would not be able to challenge Daenerys.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, crushing some Lannister loyalists isn't that much blood. The question was more whether he is going to have to sack the city to conquer it, or whether people will invite him in. Murdering Tommen and/or Myrcella also counts as bloody, of course, and would likely cost him considerable sympathies. But it would still not be a sack.

 

No, it would not. But as I pointed out, Connington will likely try to emulate Tywin. And murder of Aegon and Rhaenys is not what got Tywin his reputation.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The chances for Aegon getting a dragon are pretty slim at this point. It is not impossible, but it is not likely going to happen in the foreseeable future. He turned his back on the dragons, quite literally, and that's going to come back to haunt him.

Even if he had sufficient dragonlord blood to claim a dragon - he would not be able to do so while those dragons have other riders. And Viserion and Rhaegal will get riders back in Slaver's Bay. If nobody claimed them they are not likely to go to Westeros with the gang. You cannot transport adult dragons by ship, and both dragons have grown wild now thanks to their imprisonment and flight. If they get no riders they would remain in their lairs on the pyramids they claimed.

One can imagine that one of Dany's dragons is claimed by a rider who then conveniently dies so Aegon can claim the dragon, but that would be a pretty complicated story. Could happen, but at this point I'd not put any money on this scenario.

In a duel, yes. But Euron as a strategist? Robb bloody Stark would eat him alive. Euron has attacked the strongest kingdom in Westeros with the weakest one, and has literally no card other than "get the dragons" - and this is entrusted to Victarion. Aegon at least has some sort of reasoning behind his actions: from his perspective, he needs some kind of achievement so that Daenerys does not reject him outright, and he can count on support in Westeros, so he can in fact hope to survive until Daenerys comes. And keep in mind, he only proposed that plan when it was obvious there was no other option available (it was either that or go back to living on a poleboat). So while his plan is rather risky and on shaky legs, it is not an entirely unreasonable one. What is Euron's plan? Attack the Reach (which outnumbers him 10:1 on its own), try to take Oldtown (city only slightly smaller than King's Landing - which is the size of Constantinople), all because he is counting on dragons he may or may not be able to get. Mind you, doing these things will not help him get the dragons, doing these things requires him to already have the dragons in order to achieve them.

Unless Euron's real name is Sauron and he has One Ring and Nine Nazgul at his beck-and-call, I do not see what makes him deserve the respect you give him.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Royal power in Westeros is inherited, not claimed by lowborn thugs who rose high in a nonexisting standing military.

In Westeros Aegon's parentage and identity will be a very serious issue - both for his allies and supporters and his enemies. And we will learn who he actually is, and this will affect the plot.

Which is why there is whole "Aegon had been saved" thing. My point is, if he proves an adequate ruler, there will be people willing to follow him, no matter how shaky his story is - as long as there exists a possibility of doubt, it can be exploited. (It is possible I am underestimating the impact of the issue, seeing how my knowledge comes from history of states - Byzantine Empire and Hungarian-Croatian Kingdom - which never had strong dynastic tradition).

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The difference there is that Stannis didn't have any dragons or Dothraki. Dany will have both. And a lot of other muscle, too. Not to mention that her identity and parentage is universally accepted, whereas Aegon pretends to be a boy who Lord Tywin's thugs murdered as all of Westeros knows. Dany wouldn't be Stannis pointing with a finger at the children Robert Baratheon raised as his own, Dany would be a powerful, trueborn Targaryen with dragons pointing out that her nephew died decades ago as an infant child.

If Aegon has early success many people will believe that he is the real deal - will want to believe that very much. But when he starts to make mistakes or things go wrong then they can and will revisit his parentage quickly enough. If he had the dragons and the Targaryen wife as they wanted him to have this wouldn't work, but he doesn't.

Think about how quickly Rogar Baratheon started to change his view on Jaehaerys I - first he was a great natural king with a much better claim to the throne than Aerea and Rhaena. And then, when he started to make mistakes (or rather: do things he didn't like) he was not worthy of the throne and didn't have that strong a claim after all. And Jaehaerys I was the son of a king and the grandson of Aegon the Conqueror, not some boy merely claiming to be the dead grandson of a king.

Two of her dragons are uncontrollable, and it is not out of question that Aegon gets one (and somebody else second - I am thinking Victarion or Euron). And Dothraki, against a 14th-15th century militaries which most of Westeros fields, and in Westeros, are a joke. Even if they turn into hyper-competent Mongols (instead of incompetent ones they currently are) in next books, they would still be at disadvantage against Westerosi armies in an open clash. At least if Martin gets his history right. I already wrote about Dothraki extensively at another place, so I will just drop a link to it.

You are correct about identity. Including the fact that people tend to believe what they want to believe. You are just rose-painting Daenerys too much. If Daenerys comes to Westeros looking like a Tyrant with hordes of savages at her back, do you really think many people will go around questioning Aegon's parentage? And that is why I don't think Aegon will turn a tyrant, because if he does, there will be no reason for anyone to back him over Daenerys (well, except for the fact that he doesn't have Dothraki). And if that happens, his allies will happily rid themselves of him.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

How can a couple of dromonds stand against hundreds of Ironborn ships? The guy buying those pirates will be Euron Greyjoy, not Aegon. Who has nothing to offer them. If the Ironborn armada moves east and enters the waters of the Stepstones (as they should if Euron actually wants the Iron Throne) then those pirates will have to join him or die. Nobody can protect them from Euron.

Very easily, if they are much larger. Deck height is a massive advantage in naval combat (again, assuming that Martin got his history right). In 1453., 150 Turkish boats gathered around four sailing vessels in Bosphorus yet proved incapable of capturing them. They failed rather spectacularly: Genoese ships reached Constantinople without much difficulty.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Doesn't Aegon also have a vested interest in pushing his story? No one believed Stannis because, without proof, his claims seemed implausible. The more implausible story here would be Aegon's, not Dany's.

I think some people will see what they want to see, not because he gives them hope but because Aegon looks kingly, similar to Daemon Blackfyre gaining support through his appearance and athleticism. Others will support him because they believe he can win. Everyone is going to have personal doubts about his background though, whether they're with him or not.

And your second paragraph is half my point. As for first, yes, he does have. And if he came after Daenerys conquered Westeros by herself claiming that he has right for the throne, he definitely would be laughed off. But here - and that is what you are ignoring with your Stannis example - he will be in possession of the throne. In his situation, Daenerys claiming that he is a fake will look much like Stannis claiming that Cersei's kids are not Robert's: a self-centered attempt to get the throne. Just like Aegon claiming he has priority by birth over Daenerys will have looked like had he come after she had already conquered Westeros (and yes, I know that no plan included that, I'm just giving it as an example).

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Aegon is literally basing his claim on blood. The only difference between him and those you list is that he isn't actually of the royal line.

Anyway, I think the point of his character is that you can't necessarily mould anyone into a good king. For all his training, he froze up the first time he encountered real danger and all it took was one conversation to manipulate him.

Precisely. George Martin is, among other things, deconstructing the trope that "rightful king = good king". To me, said deconstruction is not complete unless we get a good king who is not a rightful king - and possibly opposing a rightful king who turns out a tyrant. It is not a situation we have had so far (Robb Stark was a rightful king in the North, Balon Greyjoy was a rightful king of the Iron Islands; as for the rest, Joffrey was not rightful king and was a tyrant, and Stannis is a rightful king and is kinda dark-grey).

As for second paragraph, yes, that is likely the point - but also usually an incorrect one, if we are looking at history. If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling.

[frenin]

19 minutes ago, Aldarion said:

Unless Euron's real name is Sauron and he has One Ring and Nine Nazgul at his beck-and-call, I do not see what makes him deserve the respect you give him.

[Alyn Oakenfist]

5 hours ago, frenin said:

No, in this thread you get increasingly convuluted schemes so he can be an easy picking for Dany to the point that it's just funny. That and that he'll become cruel and vain etc.

So far, only @Alyn Oakenfist is the only one that tells otherwise.

I know it's stupid. Dany fans realize that Aegon and Dany are going to clash so they make up all these ideas that make Dany be the knight in shinning amour. Like for real Dany is clearly going down a dark path, especially after gaining the Dothraki. Also why is everybody sure Aegon isn't legit. There is no proof saying he isn't. Yes it is likely he isn't legit but it's not provable. And let's be fair from what we know Aegon is a better King then Dany. He leads a well discipline Westerosi army instead of a bunch of literal savages with a very clear history of rape and genocide. He doesn't yet have any history of indiscriminate bloodshed, unlike Dany with the Great Masters. So why is all the Aegon hate?

[Alyn Oakenfist]

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Unless Euron's real name is Sauron and he has One Ring and Nine Nazgul at his beck-and-call, I do not see what makes him deserve the respect you give him.

YESSS!!!!! Thank you!!! Everybody treats Euron as the 3rd Dark Lord of Arda, when it goes against everything this story stands for. Magic is dangerous, like a sword without a hilt, and the shit he is going for with the priests is clearly going to blow up in his face, probably resulting in a phyrric victory against the Redwynes.

[frenin]

20 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

I know it's stupid. Dany fans realize that Aegon and Dany are going to clash so they make up all these ideas that make Dany be the knight in shinning amour. Like for real Dany is clearly going down a dark path, especially after gaining the Dothraki. Also why is everybody sure Aegon isn't legit. There is no proof saying he isn't. Yes it is likely he isn't legit but it's not provable. And let's be fair from what we know Aegon is a better King then Dany. He leads a well discipline Westerosi army instead of a bunch of literal savages with a very clear history of rape and genocide. He doesn't yet have any history of indiscriminate bloodshed, unlike Dany with the Great Masters. So why is all the Aegon hate?

I think that the hate is undeserved, the guy seems like a good kid.

That said I don't think Aegon is better than Dany in anyway. Dany has experience as ruler, she has already lead armies and is a Conqueror... And well, we disagree in the indiscriminate bloodshed. 

[Morte]

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

If Daenerys comes to Westeros looking like a Tyrant with hordes of savages at her back, do you really think many people will go around questioning Aegon's parentage? And that is why I don't think Aegon will turn a tyrant, because if he does, there will be no reason for anyone to back him over Daenerys (well, except for the fact that he doesn't have Dothraki). And if that happens, his allies will happily rid themselves of him.

As you say, if he does everything right, they would never drop him for Dany - and that's why Martin will make poor Aegon do something (or more likely his advisers) to antagonize some people, so this people will side with Dany. He doesn't have to turn into a tyrant, he just has to make hard decisions - and he's in a war, so there will be hard and ruthless decisions. For me that's not a problem, Dany will do the same, and for the reader all decisions on both sides will be justifiable, and we will see "wonderful" debates on who is the greater monster, while the same people will tell you how great and badass murder out of pure vengeance is. Hurray! -.-

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

And Dothraki, against a 14th-15th century militaries which most of Westeros fields, and in Westeros, are a joke. Even if they turn into hyper-competent Mongols (instead of incompetent ones they currently are) in next books, they would still be at disadvantage against Westerosi armies in an open clash. At least if Martin gets his history right.

Unfortunately, Martin does mix a lot. Westeros is more like a mixture of mediaeval military of all ages, not really 14th-15th century; they don't have real Landsknechte, not even Reisläufer; he put all the mercenaries to Essos... It seems the lords of Westeros really only work with very few true soldiers and many peasants with no real training or weapons at all (remember the broken men speech). While he does somehow aim toward Mongols/Huns/Ungarians with the Dothraki, I'm not sure he will be able to warp this up on a battlefield... and he did throw Roman Legions into the mix, too.

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

At least if Martin gets his history right.

He doesn't, unfortunately (even his slavery is a not-working mixture of slavery of all colours, sharps and ages). That's why I expect 10 dromonds (it's just ten of them... and these are dromonds, not 15th century sailing ships) making a valiant stand against a hundred Viking ships and coming out victorious. I will not start with the question how on earth the Ironbound could even build that many ships in that a short time, with their isles not having forests etc....

1 hour ago, Aldarion said:

Precisely. George Martin is, among other things, deconstructing the trope that "rightful king = good king". To me, said deconstruction is not complete unless we get a good king who is not a rightful king - and possibly opposing a rightful king who turns out a tyrant. It is not a situation we have had so far (Robb Stark was a rightful king in the North, Balon Greyjoy was a rightful king of the Iron Islands; as for the rest, Joffrey was not rightful king and was a tyrant, and Stannis is a rightful king and is kinda dark-grey).

As for second paragraph, yes, that is likely the point - but also usually an incorrect one, if we are looking at history. If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling.

Exactly. It's both and it's also a commentary on Aragon as the rightful and good king, who was hidden away and educated, and of course on the "good human" being a "good ruler".

But we also have a lot of rightful and good rulers in history, which we are lacking too.

2 hours ago, Aldarion said:

What is Euron's plan? Attack the Reach (which outnumbers him 10:1 on its own), try to take Oldtown (city only slightly smaller than King's Landing - which is the size of Constantinople), all because he is counting on dragons he may or may not be able to get. Mind you, doing these things will not help him get the dragons, doing these things requires him to already have the dragons in order to achieve them.

Unless Euron's real name is Sauron and he has One Ring and Nine Nazgul at his beck-and-call, I do not see what makes him deserve the respect you give him.

Frankly, I don't know what Martin wants with Euron, except maybe a distraction which will cause other plot to work; but I also don't see him as the almighty Dark Lord.

45 minutes ago, frenin said:

I think that the hate is undeserved, the guy seems like a good kid.

That said I don't think Aegon is better than Dany in anyway. Dany has experience as ruler, she has already lead armies and is a Conqueror... And well, we disagree in the indiscriminate bloodshed. 

I don't hate him, and he seems like a good kid, yes. But as he's at war he will do things one has to do in wartime. You know I will not judge him for this (other will, of course).

Even the best rulers also did abhorrent things, if needed. The wonder of the world was also it's hammer (stupor et malleus mundi, immutator mirabilis), he still was laid under not one, but two mountains (the Kyffhäuser and the Etna, the Kyffhäuser later was changed to Barbarossa out of nationalistic reasons ) to come back if his people are in peril.

So I don't see a problem with Aegon or Dany turning "darker" (as long as it is in a war scenario, or logical and normal in the context of the world they live in, for example execution of traitors). And if for example Tommen would die as a collateral damage, I would not blame Aegon. I wouldn't even blame him if JonCon or even he himself would decide that Tommen has to die. It's sad and so on... but Caesarion had to die, too.

[frenin]

18 minutes ago, Morte said:

As you say, if he does everything right, they would never drop him for Dany -

And why they have to drop him for Dany again??

Dany does not need Westeros approval just like Aegon didn't need it, she has always know that she would have to wrestle to sit her ass on that ugly throne.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

 

I am talking about her vision in the desert. By the time she comes - or even starts on towards - Westeros, she will be fed up with compromise, and will likely burn everything in her path. Not just slavers - anyone who is an obstacle.

Who would that be? Do you imagine her to destroy Braavos, too? Because all the other places between her and Westeros right now are slaver cities.

The Westerosi do respect strength and legtimacy. Maegor the Cruel was a rather successful king for most of his reign, his downfall had nothing to do with his cruelty and much more with signs of divine disfavor, i.e. his inability to produce a living heir and the children he produced turning out to be dead monstrosities.

I don't doubt that some people will stick with Aegon even when Dany arrives, but I don't see the majority of the Realm condemning her as a foreign tyrant, especially not since is coming with dragons.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Problem is, if he does not get a dragon, there will be no "Dance of Dragons 2.0" - which Martin IIRC had outright stated will happen - and even disregarding that, he would not be able to challenge Daenerys.

The Dance of the Dragons wasn't named such because it was a war between a female and a male Targaryen pretender - and, to be sure, also because it involved living dragons. But like the War of the Five King is a misnomer (and apparently all the Dornish Wars but the first) chances are not that bad that whoever is going to name this Second Dance the Second Dance of the Dragons might be inspired to do so because, like with Rhaenyra and Aegon II, there will a male and a female Targaryen pretender fight each other.

Such a name would not be contingent on both those pretenders being dragonriders.

Connington made it clear he intends to end the line of the usurper, but he didn't make it clear he wants to sack the Targaryen capital city. He would do it if he had to, I don't doubt that. I just don't think he will have to do that.

But he could take a brutal war to the West, sacking Lannisport the way Tywin lacked KL.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

In a duel, yes. But Euron as a strategist? Robb bloody Stark would eat him alive. Euron has attacked the strongest kingdom in Westeros with the weakest one, and has literally no card other than "get the dragons" - and this is entrusted to Victarion. Aegon at least has some sort of reasoning behind his actions: from his perspective, he needs some kind of achievement so that Daenerys does not reject him outright, and he can count on support in Westeros, so he can in fact hope to survive until Daenerys comes. And keep in mind, he only proposed that plan when it was obvious there was no other option available (it was either that or go back to living on a poleboat). So while his plan is rather risky and on shaky legs, it is not an entirely unreasonable one. What is Euron's plan? Attack the Reach (which outnumbers him 10:1 on its own), try to take Oldtown (city only slightly smaller than King's Landing - which is the size of Constantinople), all because he is counting on dragons he may or may not be able to get. Mind you, doing these things will not help him get the dragons, doing these things requires him to already have the dragons in order to achieve them.

I think you misjudge Euron. Euron Greyjoy attacked the Reach to keep his Ironborn sweet, rob his brother Victarion of his most loyal supporters, and set them up for slaughter. He has no intention of holding the Shields, nor has he any intention, in my opinion, to attack Oldtown. That would gain him nothing. At this point he just passing the time for the dragons to come ... which he has to because his lazy and superstitious people refused to accompany him to Slaver's Bay so he had to send Victarion. If things had gone as he had planned, all the Ironborn would right now be in Slaver's Bay, not in the waters south of the Reach.

But if he were to actually defeat the Redwynes - for which he has a plan - he has no reason to conquer Oldtown or any of the Hightower bannermen. They will bend the knee to him ... or lose their wealth, possibly even risk public uprising and such. Oldtown is a city of traders and merchants, and trade is pretty much over since the ships trying to get to Oldtown have to pass through waters controlled by the Ironborn. This cannot continue. The hope of the Hightowers are the Redwynes - but if Paxter's fleet is crushed they won't have the means to get rid of the Ironborn for years, possibly decades, especially if they were to take the Arbor for themselves (which would be the next step). They will have to accept how things are now, and if Euron offers them good terms then he might certainly be a better king in their eyes than 'King Tommen'. There is a reason why George had Sam notice the hate the Oldtowners feel for the Lannister-run regime in KL.

In the long run, Euron wants the Iron Throne. He can only gain that by means of alliances and such. If Dany doesn't show, he will need other support. Cersei in the natural ally then, and she is most likely going to become the queen at Euron's side. Aegon is going to look like the feigned boy that he is when Euron attacks and sacks Sunspear (after Dorne declares for Aegon), possibly killing Doran and Trystane in the process of that.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Unless Euron's real name is Sauron and he has One Ring and Nine Nazgul at his beck-and-call, I do not see what makes him deserve the respect you give him.

Well, he actually uses Sauron's Red Eye as his personal sigil, so that's that. He is not going to be Sauron, but certainly Sauron's little brother or something along those lines. I mean, the guy has Valyrian armor. Aeron nearly fainted when he realized that.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Which is why there is whole "Aegon had been saved" thing. My point is, if he proves an adequate ruler, there will be people willing to follow him, no matter how shaky his story is - as long as there exists a possibility of doubt, it can be exploited. (It is possible I am underestimating the impact of the issue, seeing how my knowledge comes from history of states - Byzantine Empire and Hungarian-Croatian Kingdom - which never had strong dynastic tradition).

Westeros has noble dynasties stretching back thousands of years in unbroken male line. They are much more obsessed with that kind of thing than even most medieval monarchies were. And if you look at the English or French monarchy - the stuff George actually based his setting on - then it was unthinkable that anyone but a scion of the royal bloodline take the throne - it may not be always clear who the right heir/pretender was, hence there being succession wars, but it was unthinkable during in those places that some guy with no royal blood could take a throne - unless, of course, he conquered a foreign nation, but that rarely happened.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Two of her dragons are uncontrollable, and it is not out of question that Aegon gets one (and somebody else second - I am thinking Victarion or Euron). And Dothraki, against a 14th-15th century militaries which most of Westeros fields, and in Westeros, are a joke. Even if they turn into hyper-competent Mongols (instead of incompetent ones they currently are) in next books, they would still be at disadvantage against Westerosi armies in an open clash. At least if Martin gets his history right. I already wrote about Dothraki extensively at another place, so I will just drop a link to it.

Westeros is going to be completely spent by the time Dany shows up. Even if the Dothraki do have some problems with certain groups of knights, they will break all the infantry very easily - and most likely also the knights if they have enough of those magical dragonbone bows. Even if they were lacking them - them being able to ride and shoot at the same time is going to crush the knights easily enough.

Viserion and Rhaegal will be claimed by their riders in Slaver's Bay. The best candidates at this point are Ben Plumm and Tyrion and possibly Victarion. Euron is out of the game since he isn't there. Those dragons are not going to go to Westeros if they are not claimed by riders - and if they have riders they won't be Euron or Aegon. They would have to kill those dragonriders to claim them - which is possible but not very likely at this point.

The power dynamics in camp Dany certainly will change when she is no longer the only dragonrider alive ... but that's not going to benefit her enemies/rivals in Westeros who have no dragons. Instead, it might set up potential rivals and pretenders in her own camp. Ben Plumm, a Targaryen descendent himself, could develop the notion he should be king because he has a dragon. That happened before, during the Dance. The same goes for Tyrion and Victarion.

Euron Greyjoy strikes me as the most plausible candidate for a dragonslayer at this point. He wears Valyrian armor, and if he also has Valyrian sword he could easily enough withstand dragonfire and cut a dragon to pieces like the Shepherd did. I don't think it very likely that one of Dany's dragons are killed until the grand finale, but if a dragonrider were to ever try to take Euron head-on he or she might barely escape with her life.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

You are correct about identity. Including the fact that people tend to believe what they want to believe. You are just rose-painting Daenerys too much. If Daenerys comes to Westeros looking like a Tyrant with hordes of savages at her back, do you really think many people will go around questioning Aegon's parentage? And that is why I don't think Aegon will turn a tyrant, because if he does, there will be no reason for anyone to back him over Daenerys (well, except for the fact that he doesn't have Dothraki). And if that happens, his allies will happily rid themselves of him.

Well, that Second Dance could be a very short war. It isn't going to fill that many books, most likely.

I certainly expect Dany to not look very popular while she isn't there. The idea is - what people are going to think of her after she landed and her dragons are flying over people's heads. That is the moment of truth, not when just stories and rumors trickle in from the east.

4 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Very easily, if they are much larger. Deck height is a massive advantage in naval combat (again, assuming that Martin got his history right). In 1453., 150 Turkish boats gathered around four sailing vessels in Bosphorus yet proved incapable of capturing them. They failed rather spectacularly: Genoese ships reached Constantinople without much difficulty.

But who said anything about Euron wanting to capture those dromonds? He wants the Iron Throne, not a couple of ships his men could ignore.

Euron will have to crush the largest war fleet in all of Westeros at the beginning of TWoW to remain alive. If he can do that - and there are likely some dromonds or other large ship models in the Redwyne fleet - then he certainly can also deal with Aurane Waters.

[Aldarion]

8 hours ago, Morte said:

As you say, if he does everything right, they would never drop him for Dany - and that's why Martin will make poor Aegon do something (or more likely his advisers) to antagonize some people, so this people will side with Dany. He doesn't have to turn into a tyrant, he just has to make hard decisions - and he's in a war, so there will be hard and ruthless decisions. For me that's not a problem, Dany will do the same, and for the reader all decisions on both sides will be justifiable, and we will see "wonderful" debates on who is the greater monster, while the same people will tell you how great and badass murder out of pure vengeance is. Hurray! -.-

 

Agreed. I never said that he will not make some mistakes - but he will not turn into just another baby-eating villain for Daenerys to get rid of.

8 hours ago, Morte said:

Unfortunately, Martin does mix a lot. Westeros is more like a mixture of mediaeval military of all ages, not really 14th-15th century; they don't have real Landsknechte, not even Reisläufer; he put all the mercenaries to Essos... It seems the lords of Westeros really only work with very few true soldiers and many peasants with no real training or weapons at all (remember the broken men speech). While he does somehow aim toward Mongols/Huns/Ungarians with the Dothraki, I'm not sure he will be able to warp this up on a battlefield... and he did throw Roman Legions into the mix, too.

 

Which is why I noted, "if Martin got his history right". That being said, I do not think that Westerosi really work with many peasants and few real soldiers. "Peasant" appears to be a social class as much as anything else. Chances are, Westerosi infantrymen are "peasants" in the same way that dismounted men-at-arms, crossbowmen or Swiss pikemen were... that is, they come from socially low background, but are not poor and are definitely professionals. Though from what I remember (I will really have to do a reread of books soon), Martin is kinda schizophrenic on that particular topic... Even so, their behaviour in battle - as opposed to word-of-mouth etc. - actually portrays them as trained soldiers. So equivalent of Italian city militias, at least.

Interestingly, above three categories I noted - dismounted men-at-arms, crossbowmen and pikemen - all actually appear in the text. Except pikemen aren't from Switzerland, unless Vale is secretly hiring out mercenaries....

8 hours ago, Morte said:

He doesn't, unfortunately (even his slavery is a not-working mixture of slavery of all colours, sharps and ages). That's why I expect 10 dromonds (it's just ten of them... and these are dromonds, not 15th century sailing ships) making a valiant stand against a hundred Viking ships and coming out victorious. I will not start with the question how on earth the Ironbound could even build that many ships in that a short time, with their isles not having forests etc....

 

To be fair, Martin seems to have spent all his worldbuilding effort on Westeros... and even that is more of a carricature of actual Middle Ages drawn through postmodernist cynical prism than what actual Middle Ages were like. Essos? It is a carricature of a number of slavering societies.

That being said, all dromonds in Martin's world have oars in multiples of 100. That means that they have up to 4 decks, so they are at least somewhat larger than actual historical ships. Byzantine dromon had 50 oars per deck and two decks, so chances are a 400-oared galley is maybe 60 meters long and with 4 decks, so twice as long and twice as tall. Meaning that against Ironborn longships they would have many of the advantages that carracks had against Ottoman galleys.

8 hours ago, Morte said:

Exactly. It's both and it's also a commentary on Aragon as the rightful and good king, who was hidden away and educated, and of course on the "good human" being a "good ruler".

But we also have a lot of rightful and good rulers in history, which we are lacking too.

Yes. I think Martin is maybe trying to comment on too many things.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Who would that be? Do you imagine her to destroy Braavos, too? Because all the other places between her and Westeros right now are slaver cities.

The Westerosi do respect strength and legtimacy. Maegor the Cruel was a rather successful king for most of his reign, his downfall had nothing to do with his cruelty and much more with signs of divine disfavor, i.e. his inability to produce a living heir and the children he produced turning out to be dead monstrosities.

I don't doubt that some people will stick with Aegon even when Dany arrives, but I don't see the majority of the Realm condemning her as a foreign tyrant, especially not since is coming with dragons.

As I said: anything in her path. Including after returning to Westeros. Going from her vision, it seems that her experiences in Mereen will convince her that she can only rule through fear.

And Maegor successful? Insomuch as he managed to keep the throne for a time, yes. Which I expect might happen to Daenerys as well. She kills Aegon > rules for a time > gets killed by Jon. Much like Maegor, Aegon the Uncrowned and Jaeharys.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think you misjudge Euron. Euron Greyjoy attacked the Reach to keep his Ironborn sweet, rob his brother Victarion of his most loyal supporters, and set them up for slaughter. He has no intention of holding the Shields, nor has he any intention, in my opinion, to attack Oldtown. That would gain him nothing. At this point he just passing the time for the dragons to come ... which he has to because his lazy and superstitious people refused to accompany him to Slaver's Bay so he had to send Victarion. If things had gone as he had planned, all the Ironborn would right now be in Slaver's Bay, not in the waters south of the Reach.

But if he were to actually defeat the Redwynes - for which he has a plan - he has no reason to conquer Oldtown or any of the Hightower bannermen. They will bend the knee to him ... or lose their wealth, possibly even risk public uprising and such. Oldtown is a city of traders and merchants, and trade is pretty much over since the ships trying to get to Oldtown have to pass through waters controlled by the Ironborn. This cannot continue. The hope of the Hightowers are the Redwynes - but if Paxter's fleet is crushed they won't have the means to get rid of the Ironborn for years, possibly decades, especially if they were to take the Arbor for themselves (which would be the next step). They will have to accept how things are now, and if Euron offers them good terms then he might certainly be a better king in their eyes than 'King Tommen'. There is a reason why George had Sam notice the hate the Oldtowners feel for the Lannister-run regime in KL.

In the long run, Euron wants the Iron Throne. He can only gain that by means of alliances and such. If Dany doesn't show, he will need other support. Cersei in the natural ally then, and she is most likely going to become the queen at Euron's side. Aegon is going to look like the feigned boy that he is when Euron attacks and sacks Sunspear (after Dorne declares for Aegon), possibly killing Doran and Trystane in the process of that.

Meaning that he attacked Reach for sake of keeping his supporters happy. A.k.a. exactly what Hitler did when he attacked Russia (though Euron's case would be closer to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour). He is betting it all on dragons, and has started an unwinnable war to pass time until dragons come. Those are not characteristics of a good strategist. And with just a fleet, you can't really control territory, plus most naval attacks against cities required army deployed on land to succeed.

How is Euron going to sack Sunspear? Unless he gets teleporter from show!Euron somehow.

Cersei is a natural ally, but what for? She can hardly command her own bannermen, and her paranoia will have driven away many of them as well. Again, if we assume that Westeros is a feudal society, nobody is going to follow an unreliable lord - much less one who is liable to try and kill you at the drop of a hat. If Martin plays it in a realistic manner, Cerse will bring no value to Euron other than herself.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, he actually uses Sauron's Red Eye as his personal sigil, so that's that. He is not going to be Sauron, but certainly Sauron's little brother or something along those lines. I mean, the guy has Valyrian armor. Aeron nearly fainted when he realized that.

 

Big difference between him and Sauron is that Sauron was actually an excellent strategist who would have run circles around most (if not all) commanders in Westeros on a grand-strategy scale.

Of course, Euron is not immortal, so he has time constraints that Sauron did not; but even so...

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think you misjudge Euron. Euron Greyjoy attacked the Reach to keep his Ironborn sweet, rob his brother Victarion of his most loyal supporters, and set them up for slaughter. He has no intention of holding the Shields, nor has he any intention, in my opinion, to attack Oldtown. That would gain him nothing. At this point he just passing the time for the dragons to come ... which he has to because his lazy and superstitious people refused to accompany him to Slaver's Bay so he had to send Victarion. If things had gone as he had planned, all the Ironborn would right now be in Slaver's Bay, not in the waters south of the Reach.

But if he were to actually defeat the Redwynes - for which he has a plan - he has no reason to conquer Oldtown or any of the Hightower bannermen. They will bend the knee to him ... or lose their wealth, possibly even risk public uprising and such. Oldtown is a city of traders and merchants, and trade is pretty much over since the ships trying to get to Oldtown have to pass through waters controlled by the Ironborn. This cannot continue. The hope of the Hightowers are the Redwynes - but if Paxter's fleet is crushed they won't have the means to get rid of the Ironborn for years, possibly decades, especially if they were to take the Arbor for themselves (which would be the next step). They will have to accept how things are now, and if Euron offers them good terms then he might certainly be a better king in their eyes than 'King Tommen'. There is a reason why George had Sam notice the hate the Oldtowners feel for the Lannister-run regime in KL.

In the long run, Euron wants the Iron Throne. He can only gain that by means of alliances and such. If Dany doesn't show, he will need other support. Cersei in the natural ally then, and she is most likely going to become the queen at Euron's side. Aegon is going to look like the feigned boy that he is when Euron attacks and sacks Sunspear (after Dorne declares for Aegon), possibly killing Doran and Trystane in the process of that.

Yes, that would be a problem, then.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Westeros is going to be completely spent by the time Dany shows up. Even if the Dothraki do have some problems with certain groups of knights, they will break all the infantry very easily - and most likely also the knights if they have enough of those magical dragonbone bows. Even if they were lacking them - them being able to ride and shoot at the same time is going to crush the knights easily enough.

How are they going to break infantry? I have not seen any indication of Dothraki having shock cavalry, much less armoured lance shock cavalry which Mongols did. And Westerosi militaries, with ther combination of heavy cavalry, pikemen and longbowmen/crossbowmen, are actually perfect hard counter for Dothraki  missile cavalry tactics in open battle. Dothraki will be best deployed as raiders, where they could actually do some damage - but even there, damage will be limited by the fact that they can't take castles and said castles have huge storage. And because they will be fighting in winter, there will be no need for Westerosi to defend crops from being destroyed.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Viserion and Rhaegal will be claimed by their riders in Slaver's Bay. The best candidates at this point are Ben Plumm and Tyrion and possibly Victarion. Euron is out of the game since he isn't there. Those dragons are not going to go to Westeros if they are not claimed by riders - and if they have riders they won't be Euron or Aegon. They would have to kill those dragonriders to claim them - which is possible but not very likely at this point.

The power dynamics in camp Dany certainly will change when she is no longer the only dragonrider alive ... but that's not going to benefit her enemies/rivals in Westeros who have no dragons. Instead, it might set up potential rivals and pretenders in her own camp. Ben Plumm, a Targaryen descendent himself, could develop the notion he should be king because he has a dragon. That happened before, during the Dance. The same goes for Tyrion and Victarion.

Euron Greyjoy strikes me as the most plausible candidate for a dragonslayer at this point. He wears Valyrian armor, and if he also has Valyrian sword he could easily enough withstand dragonfire and cut a dragon to pieces like the Shepherd did. I don't think it very likely that one of Dany's dragons are killed until the grand finale, but if a dragonrider were to ever try to take Euron head-on he or she might barely escape with her life.

Valyrian armour is metal. Even if it is somehow invulnerable to dragonfire, Euron inside definitely isn't. If he tries to take a dragon head-on, he is a toast.

And if Daenerys becomes a tyrant and there is a dissatisfaction in her own camp, there is certainly a possibility of somebody going over to Aegon - neither Ben Plumm nor Tyrion are exactly reliable.

7 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But who said anything about Euron wanting to capture those dromonds? He wants the Iron Throne, not a couple of ships his men could ignore.

Euron will have to crush the largest war fleet in all of Westeros at the beginning of TWoW to remain alive. If he can do that - and there are likely some dromonds or other large ship models in the Redwyne fleet - then he certainly can also deal with Aurane Waters.

The fleet he did defeat consisted of longships. As for defeating Redwyne fleet, it should be impossible in open clash. Best he can hope for is to take them at anchor - which did happen, historically.

[Hodor the Articulate]

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

And your second paragraph is half my point. As for first, yes, he does have. And if he came after Daenerys conquered Westeros by herself claiming that he has right for the throne, he definitely would be laughed off. But here - and that is what you are ignoring with your Stannis example - he will be in possession of the throne. In his situation, Daenerys claiming that he is a fake will look much like Stannis claiming that Cersei's kids are not Robert's: a self-centered attempt to get the throne. Just like Aegon claiming he has priority by birth over Daenerys will have looked like had he come after she had already conquered Westeros (and yes, I know that no plan included that, I'm just giving it as an example).

Whether he's sitting on the throne or not is irrelevant because it doesn't make his story more believable. There would have been no need to marry Aegon to Dany if his legitimacy wasn't a huge issue.

10 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Precisely. George Martin is, among other things, deconstructing the trope that "rightful king = good king". To me, said deconstruction is not complete unless we get a good king who is not a rightful king - and possibly opposing a rightful king who turns out a tyrant. It is not a situation we have had so far (Robb Stark was a rightful king in the North, Balon Greyjoy was a rightful king of the Iron Islands; as for the rest, Joffrey was not rightful king and was a tyrant, and Stannis is a rightful king and is kinda dark-grey).

As for second paragraph, yes, that is likely the point - but also usually an incorrect one, if we are looking at history. If there is a point, then it is not that "anyone cannot be moulded into a good king", but that "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king", seeing how Aegon's point of failure is that none of his teachers actually have any experience in ruling.

There's no rule that says writers have to show all possible sides to deconstruct a trope. And there's zero chance Aegon can be shown to be a "good king" because he won't have time to achieve anything in war-torn Westeros before Dany arrives. You yourself admit Aegon isn't what he's touted to be.

I don't see "not anyone can mould somebody else into a good king" as a theme in the books. It hardly applies to Aegon, who has been under the tutelage of the lord of Griffin's Roost.

16 hours ago, frenin said:

No, in this thread you get increasingly convuluted schemes so he can be an easy picking for Dany to the point that it's just funny. That and that he'll become cruel and vain etc.

So far, only @Alyn Oakenfist is the only one that tells otherwise.

What convoluted schemes? Not a single person has called him cruel or vain or easily defeated. No one has even said they dislike him, let alone hate him.

[Aldarion]

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

Whether he's sitting on the throne or not is irrelevant because it doesn't make his story more believable. There would have been no need to marry Aegon to Dany if his legitimacy wasn't a huge issue.

 

Whether it makes story more believable or not is irrelevant. What matters is the change in context.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

There's no rule that says writers have to show all possible sides to deconstruct a trope. And there's zero chance Aegon can be shown to be a "good king" because he won't have time to achieve anything in war-torn Westeros before Dany arrives. You yourself admit Aegon isn't what he's touted to be.

 

He is not. Neither is anybody else, and he is frankly better option than most other alternatives. Possibly including Daenerys, depending on how her (and his) future development goes.

5 hours ago, Hodor the Articulate said:

There's no rule that says writers have to show all possible sides to deconstruct a trope. And there's zero chance Aegon can be shown to be a "good king" because he won't have time to achieve anything in war-torn Westeros before Dany arrives. You yourself admit Aegon isn't what he's touted to be.

 

I was talking from historical perspective, not necessarily Martin's. As for whether he will be shown ot be capable or not, that also depends on how quickly Daenerys comes West.

[Lord Varys]

14 hours ago, Aldarion said:

As I said: anything in her path. Including after returning to Westeros. Going from her vision, it seems that her experiences in Mereen will convince her that she can only rule through fear.

 

And Maegor successful? Insomuch as he managed to keep the throne for a time, yes. Which I expect might happen to Daenerys as well. She kills Aegon > rules for a time > gets killed by Jon. Much like Maegor, Aegon the Uncrowned and Jaeharys.

 

Meaning that he attacked Reach for sake of keeping his supporters happy. A.k.a. exactly what Hitler did when he attacked Russia (though Euron's case would be closer to Japan's attack on Pearl Harbour). He is betting it all on dragons, and has started an unwinnable war to pass time until dragons come. Those are not characteristics of a good strategist. And with just a fleet, you can't really control territory, plus most naval attacks against cities required army deployed on land to succeed.

How is Euron going to sack Sunspear? Unless he gets teleporter from show!Euron somehow.

Cersei is a natural ally, but what for? She can hardly command her own bannermen, and her paranoia will have driven away many of them as well. Again, if we assume that Westeros is a feudal society, nobody is going to follow an unreliable lord - much less one who is liable to try and kill you at the drop of a hat. If Martin plays it in a realistic manner, Cerse will bring no value to Euron other than herself.

Dany will no longer try to emulate her ancestor King Aenys, yes, always trying to please and placate the people who, in truth, only want to destroy and brutally murder her, and undo all the good things she accomplished for the former slaves. And she is no longer going to plant trees in Slaver's Bay, at a place she doesn't belong.

But that doesn't mean she will destroy everything in her path. That is a ridiculous idea.

Maegor was successful in taking the throne, doing away with the rightful heir, and crushing all enemies who dared to fight him in the field. He was never defeated in battle, he either was murdered or killed himself for some strange reason (or suffered a freak accident). And he was successful while at the same time drowning Westeros in blood, burning castles left and right, and waging a war against the gods themselves.

He failed because the fickle Westerosi couldn't stay loyal to their king - but Dany doesn't have to rely on the lords and knights of Westeros. She will have her own men who will see her not as their mortal king but worship her as their living god/savior. They are not going to betray her nor abandon her.

Again, Euron doesn't want to conquer or hold the Reach. He took the Shield Islands but never intended to keep them. He named some lords there, and then he left. He is not going to turn back to help them defend those rocks when Garlan Tyrell takes them back. That was a diversion.

Euron will sack Sunspear by moving his ships east after he crushed the Redwynes and has taken the Arbor. He also didn't need a teleportation device to get from the Iron Islands to the Shield Islands in AFfC, did he?

Cersei will command her bannermen once she returns back home. AFfC made it clear that the Westermen love both King Tommen and Queen Cersei (Jaime remembers how they were genuinely cheered when the Westermen took their leave and returned home). They are not going to be pleased by what happened with Cersei in the capital, nor are they going to ignore it if/when Tommen and Myrcella die violent deaths - especially not if that's done at the behest/in the name of the would-be Targaryen 'Prince Aegon'.

Not to mention the wealth of House Lannister - they could finance campaigns and hire men even if their own bannermen were spent.

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How are they going to break infantry? I have not seen any indication of Dothraki having shock cavalry, much less armoured lance shock cavalry which Mongols did. And Westerosi militaries, with ther combination of heavy cavalry, pikemen and longbowmen/crossbowmen, are actually perfect hard counter for Dothraki  missile cavalry tactics in open battle. Dothraki will be best deployed as raiders, where they could actually do some damage - but even there, damage will be limited by the fact that they can't take castles and said castles have huge storage. And because they will be fighting in winter, there will be no need for Westerosi to defend crops from being destroyed.

Simply by inspiring fear. Most of Westerosi infantry are untrained and undisciplined peasants - they are likely to break as soon as the see the Dothraki charging at them ... but if they were to stand somehow magically, the arrows would quickly enough crush them. The Dothraki have the means to kill both knights and infantry men without even getting close to them. Because they have the best bows in the world, and they are able to use them while riding - giving them the ability to evade the stationary Westerosi archers.

The Dothraki can and did storm and sack dozens of cities in the past, and every single Sarnori city was larger and most likely better protected even in defeat than any small Westerosi castle is today. The Dothraki also know how to starve out cities - they did so with Mardosh the Unconquerable - and unlike in the old times they will be briefed and advised in their tactics by people from Westeros.

Dany doesn't have to conquer any castle directly to force the Westerosi lords and knights to bend their knees to them - it would be more than enough to seize all their lands, (threaten to) burn their villages and towns. Especially in winter the people won't have it that they are attacked just because their lords don't want to make peace.

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Valyrian armour is metal. Even if it is somehow invulnerable to dragonfire, Euron inside definitely isn't. If he tries to take a dragon head-on, he is a toast.

I'm not imagining Euron taking on a dragon all by himself. It is pretty easy to kill them if you have enough morons around which die for you while injuring or distracting the dragon. But yes, I do expect Valyrian steel armor to actually protect you from dragonfire - especially the rather cold dragonfire young dragons seem to produce (which cannot melt stone yet).

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And if Daenerys becomes a tyrant and there is a dissatisfaction in her own camp, there is certainly a possibility of somebody going over to Aegon - neither Ben Plumm nor Tyrion are exactly reliable.

But they are likely going to become dragonriders while Dany isn't back in Slaver's Bay yet. If either of the mentioned fellows claims a dragon it is likely to happen during the battle that's unfolding right now. And then they will have the power and authority and prestige that comes with being the first living dragonriders in history since, possibly, Rhaena Targaryen. Daenerys is missing and presumed dead. Vic, Ben, or Tyrion could decide that they being dragonriders means they run the show now. Which means they could decide to go to Westeros to claim the Iron Throne and not bother with Dany.

Chances are very low that they would ever consider joining a dragonless Aegon or Euron. Why would they want to do that? Dragons are power in a more real sense than feigned ancestry.

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The fleet he did defeat consisted of longships. As for defeating Redwyne fleet, it should be impossible in open clash. Best he can hope for is to take them at anchor - which did happen, historically.

That is not what Euron is planning - he expects the Redwynes to come for him, he doesn't try to surprise them. Euron is not going to rely on mundane military nonsense, he will use sorcery to help defeat them. And he will continue to use magic in his conquest, possibly getting stronger and stronger as time passes.

[Morte]

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Agreed. I never said that he will not make some mistakes - but he will not turn into just another baby-eating villain for Daenerys to get rid of.

How about we agree on none of them turning into a conveniently mad baby-eating villain so Mary Sues can easily get rid of them while the crowd cheers by? Because else it is just the other way around.

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Which is why I noted, "if Martin got his history right". That being said, I do not think that Westerosi really work with many peasants and few real soldiers. "Peasant" appears to be a social class as much as anything else. Chances are, Westerosi infantrymen are "peasants" in the same way that dismounted men-at-arms, crossbowmen or Swiss pikemen were... that is, they come from socially low background, but are not poor and are definitely professionals. Though from what I remember (I will really have to do a reread of books soon), Martin is kinda schizophrenic on that particular topic... Even so, their behaviour in battle - as opposed to word-of-mouth etc. - actually portrays them as trained soldiers. So equivalent of Italian city militias, at least.

It's one of Martin's inconsistencies, as it is stated multiple times in the text that the majority of Westeroi armies are made out of peasants without even real weapons, when their lords call their banners. And his descriptions of the battles themselves aren't particularly exact or detailed, so we don't really know how they fare in battle. Fact is: Tyrion's mountain clans did very well, but these are people who have to fight all the time.

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Except pikemen aren't from Switzerland, unless Vale is secretly hiring out mercenaries....

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Essos? It is a carricature of a number of slavering societies.

... with a caricature of the Renaissance on top of it!

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

That being said, all dromonds in Martin's world have oars in multiples of 100. That means that they have up to 4 decks, so they are at least somewhat larger than actual historical ships. Byzantine dromon had 50 oars per deck and two decks, so chances are a 400-oared galley is maybe 60 meters long and with 4 decks, so twice as long and twice as tall. Meaning that against Ironborn longships they would have many of the advantages that carracks had against Ottoman galleys.

Frankly, I get a head ache when thinking about Martin's attempts on naval technique... I know naval history is really hard and confusing, but could he not at least used ships out of the same epoch? Please? And make an effort to look up which are seaworthy before throwing them into his narrow version of the fucking Atlantic? Because even imagining a dromon trying to navigate Cape Horn or the Cape of Storm gives me laughing fits... but I guess in Martin's world there aren't any strange and deadly (under)currents or winds at the edges of continents... *sigh*

13 hours ago, Aldarion said:

How are they going to break infantry? I have not seen any indication of Dothraki having shock cavalry, much less armoured lance shock cavalry which Mongols did.

They do however, as @Lord Varys said, have armour-breaking bows, and with the information we have about their city sacking in Essos, I think we have another inconsistency - or more likely in this case: AGoT wasn't very developed, back then, Martin filled the world while writing so the little informations we have don't match.

But the knights of Westeros will get more than one Azincourt, first with the GC, later with the Dothraki.

22 hours ago, frenin said:

And why they have to drop him for Dany again??

Dany does not need Westeros approval just like Aegon didn't need it, she has always know that she would have to wrestle to sit her ass on that ugly throne.

At least for me this question is not about Aegon or Dany, if they are smart, they will not trust any Westerosi Lord. It also doesn't have anything to do with who is good or better or less evil.

I'm just pondering which lord/knight/player/piece will end with which Dragon and why; because - as already stated multiple times - I don't believe the remaining blocks to be intact and whole in the end, they will splitter.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Euron is not going to rely on mundane military nonsense, he will use sorcery to help defeat them. And he will continue to use magic in his conquest, possibly getting stronger and stronger as time passes.

While I agree with a lot of your last posting, I do have my problems with Martin's deus ex machina that is Euron's magic. And while this is surely the only way for Euron not to fail in his fun and games in the south (else he would be crushed or have to retreat without causing much damage), I'm really not happy if/when Martin will go that way with him. 

[BlackLightning]

I'm with @Lord Varys

Even if Euron takes a massive hit in the Battle of the Redwyne Straits, he will recover and he will be free to loot and pillage the Arbor even further or the lands surrounding the Oldtown. He could even feast on Oldtown should the Hightowers either surrender or be foolish enough to try to engage Euron without being fully-prepared.

I am of the persuasion that Sam and Euron will cross paths and that Euron will find something(s) of interest in the Citadel or even in the Hightower.

For example, if Euron comes across a book pertaining to old magic, the Others or the Long Night itself....well, then A Dream of Spring would be much more interesting.

No one is suggesting that Euron makes this massive leap to becoming this powerful evil sorcerer with designs on world domination (beginning with Westeros) in one book. No, we think it will happen over the course of Winds and Dream.

Although Jon, Arya and Sansa are magical and Sam has expressed interest in becoming a "wizard," Dany and Bran are the protagonists who have story-lines that are explicitly magical and supernatural. And both seem poised to clash with Euron.

I'm not sure Euron will be the one sack/destroy Sunspear (I do think Sunspear will be destroyed by the end of the series so it means that it will be either him or Daenerys) but yes...Cersei is a natural ally for Euron and vice versa after Aegon takes King's Landing and forces her to make a decision between jumping ship or dying.

 

And there's no way 10 dromonds can soundly defeat an entire fleet of ships manned by men who live and breathe naval battles.

[Morte]

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But yes, I do expect Valyrian steel armor to actually protect you from dragonfire - especially the rather cold dragonfire young dragons seem to produce (which cannot melt stone yet).

I seriously doubt that, as it was forged, so it has to melt, and for this it has to conduct energy. Stone (which one?) doesn't need that much to melt at all (Granite melts at under 1000°C) while you need around 1300°C for normal steel.

But that's not the problem: the armour might still be intact, it's the human inside who is long dead before a steel armour even "ponders" to melt.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Morte said:

They do however, as @Lord Varys said, have armour-breaking bows, and with the information we have about their city sacking in Essos, I think we have another inconsistency - or more likely in this case: AGoT wasn't very developed, back then, Martin filled the world while writing so the little informations we have don't match.

It is more likely this way - we didn't get the full picture of Dothraki abilities back then. The dragonbone bows were introduced back in AGoT, after all.

The Dothraki as presented in AGoT are underestimated by the people describing them because they have been nice guys for centuries now. The Free Cities look down on them the way the Sarnori of old did, never contemplating what might happen if they were to be united under one great khal again.

With relation to the situation in Westeros it is quite clear that even a united Westeros not weakened by years of civil war and famine would not stand against the Dothraki if all of them migrated to Westeros. If they failed to stop them at sea they would conquer Westeros because the Westerosi simply do not have enough professional warriors to withstand them. It would be the Andals come again, and the result would likely be the same kind of mixed culture thing that followed the Andal conquests.

With Dany this actually means she is going to have nearly unlimited resources. If she takes over all the Dothraki she will have all the Dothraki to throw at Westeros. They cannot withstand such an assault, and the very prospect that she would do that is going to convince many lords and knights to bend the knee - because they will realize that she is going to win this war no matter what they do.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

But the knights of Westeros will get more than one Azincourt, first with the GC, later with the Dothraki.

We can expect Black Balaq and his archers to slay most if not all of the Tyrell knights if they clash, but I expect Aegon to use the elephants in some ingenious way, too. Like with the Dothraki, the average Westeros knight - and most definitely the average peasant - wouldn't have seen much less fought a living elephant. The horses will shy away from the huge beasts as well, etc.

There is a pretty good chance that Aegon will win an Alexander-like victory over the Tyrells, crushing 20,000-30,000 Tyrells (depending how many men Mace is going to station in KL to keep the peace there) with only 5,000-7,000 men.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

I'm just pondering which lord/knight/player/piece will end with which Dragon and why; because - as already stated multiple times - I don't believe the remaining blocks to be intact and whole in the end, they will splitter.

The best take actually is to go with Aegon's potential enemies right now - which are Westermen and some Reach lords - as Dany's natural allies upon her arrival. People who are fighting against Aegon for their lives will see her as a potential ally - just as we can expect that the current enemies of House Lannister are going to become Aegon's natural allies in his fight against King Tommen (i.e. the Riverlords, Stormlords whose original allegiance was either with Renly or Stannis) in addition to the hidden Targaryen loyalists (Dorne, Reach lords, Crownlanders, some Riverlords and Westermen, etc.).

I also expect the West to become fractured. I think the Plumms will use the current power vacuum in the West to declare for Aegon, possibly taking quite a few Westermen with Targaryen sympathies with them. I expect the Lannisters to stay loyal to Cersei until they realize how mad she is (i.e. after they realize that Euron Greyjoy isn't an ally anybody could want) - then they might end up delivering some men to Dany.

But there are rather interesting wildcards. I expect Willas Tyrell to become a major player in the fight against the Others, being a sort of moderator/arbiter between the factions due to the ties he might be able to establish with Bran - I think there is a plot-related reason why Highgarden got three weirwood heart trees in its godswood, meaning he might eventually lean towards Daenerys. The same I think is going to happen with the Hightowers. They will bend the knee to Euron for the time being, but they will learn from Sam and Alleras and the Others that Dany and not Aegon is the promised prince(ss) and that the Others are a real threat. That is going to affect how their coin is going to fall in the end.

The Vale is another wildcard, as is the North. Here there are simply to many unknowns. I expect that the Vale is going to declare for Aegon as well, but whether they will remain with would depend on many factors - for instance, if Sansa became one of Aegon's queens and continued to wield great influence over the Vale they might stand with him, if not then they might take a different road.

In the North the question is how long Stannis is going to last, and what's going to happen after his death. Are the people up there going to try to gain Aegon's support against the Others? Or are they going to antagonize/clash with him? If the latter were the case then Dany could also be their natural ally against Aegon - not to mention that she is also going to be a natural ally against the Others.

The Northmen are likely going to be the people who have no issues with Dany's arrival at all. They will welcome her and the help she brings.

1 hour ago, Morte said:

While I agree with a lot of your last posting, I do have my problems with Martin's deus ex machina that is Euron's magic. And while this is surely the only way for Euron not to fail in his fun and games in the south (else he would be crushed or have to retreat without causing much damage), I'm really not happy if/when Martin will go that way with him. 

Well, the power of Euron's magic is one of the things I'm pretty confident we are going to see getting stronger and stronger. Because George has repeatedly said that as the story progresses magic is going to become ever more prominent and powerful. And Euron is one of the foremost sorcerers at this point, and just wait and see what he and Qyburn can do together when they team up... Cersei is going to take Qyburn and possibly Ser Robert Strong with her when she flees the city.

On the 'good side' we'll see Bran doing ever more powerful magical stuff, possibly starting by having animals and trees involve themselves in the coming battle at the village near Winterfell, Melisandre might give birth to some more shadows and do other stuff, and in Essos we are going to see Moqorro and Benerro and Marwyn and Quaithe.

By the time this Second Dance begins victory in the war might be decided by the most powerful sorcerer or the best way to use sorcery in battle/to achieve desired political outcomes, not so much by mundane warfare or assassination.

33 minutes ago, Morte said:

I seriously doubt that, as it was forged, so it has to melt, and for this it has to conduct energy. Stone (which one?) doesn't need that much to melt at all (Granite melts at under 1000°C) while you need around 1300°C for normal steel.

But that's not the problem: the armour might still be intact, it's the human inside who is long dead before a steel armour even "ponders" to melt.

We know that Blackfyre wasn't affected at all when it burned in Aegon's pyre. It is magical steel. The idea there is that it does not only just not melt but absorbs the heat rather than pass it on to the wearer. But I admit that this is just speculation on my part.

[Aldarion]

12 hours ago, Morte said:

How about we agree on none of them turning into a conveniently mad baby-eating villain so Mary Sues can easily get rid of them while the crowd cheers by? Because else it is just the other way around.

 

Most of Slaver's Bay consists of such, though.

12 hours ago, Morte said:

... with a caricature of the Renaissance on top of it!

 

Agreed. And also carricature of Mongols...

12 hours ago, Morte said:

Frankly, I get a head ache when thinking about Martin's attempts on naval technique... I know naval history is really hard and confusing, but could he not at least used ships out of the same epoch? Please? And make an effort to look up which are seaworthy before throwing them into his narrow version of the fucking Atlantic? Because even imagining a dromon trying to navigate Cape Horn or the Cape of Storm gives me laughing fits... but I guess in Martin's world there aren't any strange and deadly (under)currents or winds at the edges of continents... *sigh*

 

Technically, war galleys (though not dromonds specifically) and caravels/carracks are the ships of the same epoch. They had ups and downs in their mutual relationship, as I explained in detail here. What Martin gets wrong is the causes of such relationship and also geography. Redwyne fleet at least, being from place facing open ocean, should have not a single galley in its ranks (although longships are not an impossibility). And even Narrow Sea is far to open to allow galleys to be used as primary warships - it is more of a North Sea than Mediterranean, really.

Yeah, I do agree, his naval stuff is rather comedic.

12 hours ago, Morte said:

They do however, as @Lord Varys said, have armour-breaking bows, and with the information we have about their city sacking in Essos, I think we have another inconsistency - or more likely in this case: AGoT wasn't very developed, back then, Martin filled the world while writing so the little informations we have don't match.

But the knights of Westeros will get more than one Azincourt, first with the GC, later with the Dothraki.

Armour-breaking bow is not a stuff which exists unless it is a Roman ballista. Even magical dragonbone bows are still limited by human muscle power, and these are so rare as to be irrelevant. And Dothraki are horse archers, not foot bowmen. Their arrows will get laughed off by any serious plate armour.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany will no longer try to emulate her ancestor King Aenys, yes, always trying to please and placate the people who, in truth, only want to destroy and brutally murder her, and undo all the good things she accomplished for the former slaves. And she is no longer going to plant trees in Slaver's Bay, at a place she doesn't belong.

But that doesn't mean she will destroy everything in her path. That is a ridiculous idea.

Maegor was successful in taking the throne, doing away with the rightful heir, and crushing all enemies who dared to fight him in the field. He was never defeated in battle, he either was murdered or killed himself for some strange reason (or suffered a freak accident). And he was successful while at the same time drowning Westeros in blood, burning castles left and right, and waging a war against the gods themselves.

He failed because the fickle Westerosi couldn't stay loyal to their king - but Dany doesn't have to rely on the lords and knights of Westeros. She will have her own men who will see her not as their mortal king but worship her as their living god/savior. They are not going to betray her nor abandon her.

I agree with most of this except the last paragraph - you cannot successfully rule a country unless you have either local support or at least local acceptance. Her own men will get murdered left and right; only reason why she will be able to keep the throne are the dragons.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Again, Euron doesn't want to conquer or hold the Reach. He took the Shield Islands but never intended to keep them. He named some lords there, and then he left. He is not going to turn back to help them defend those rocks when Garlan Tyrell takes them back. That was a diversion.

Euron will sack Sunspear by moving his ships east after he crushed the Redwynes and has taken the Arbor. He also didn't need a teleportation device to get from the Iron Islands to the Shield Islands in AFfC, did he?

Cersei will command her bannermen once she returns back home. AFfC made it clear that the Westermen love both King Tommen and Queen Cersei (Jaime remembers how they were genuinely cheered when the Westermen took their leave and returned home). They are not going to be pleased by what happened with Cersei in the capital, nor are they going to ignore it if/when Tommen and Myrcella die violent deaths - especially not if that's done at the behest/in the name of the would-be Targaryen 'Prince Aegon'.

Not to mention the wealth of House Lannister - they could finance campaigns and hire men even if their own bannermen were spent.

Even if he manages to do all that - a big if - fact remains that he is massively outnumbered. His only saving grace is the added mobility provided by the fleet. But sacking fortified places is not easy, and if he goes around doing that - Arbor, Sunspear - he will bleed himself dry without Aegon (or anyone else) having to lift a finger. Unless, again, Martin goes for plot convenience instead of realism.

Lannister holdings are all on the mainland. That wealth will not be available for long.

16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Simply by inspiring fear. Most of Westerosi infantry are untrained and undisciplined peasants - they are likely to break as soon as the see the Dothraki charging at them ... but if they were to stand somehow magically, the arrows would quickly enough crush them. The Dothraki have the means to kill both knights and infantry men without even getting close to them. Because they have the best bows in the world, and they are able to use them while riding - giving them the ability to evade the stationary Westerosi archers.

The Dothraki can and did storm and sack dozens of cities in the past, and every single Sarnori city was larger and most likely better protected even in defeat than any small Westerosi castle is today. The Dothraki also know how to starve out cities - they did so with Mardosh the Unconquerable - and unlike in the old times they will be briefed and advised in their tactics by people from Westeros.

Dany doesn't have to conquer any castle directly to force the Westerosi lords and knights to bend their knees to them - it would be more than enough to seize all their lands, (threaten to) burn their villages and towns. Especially in winter the people won't have it that they are attacked just because their lords don't want to make peace.

Except they are not. Westerosi infantry may be socially peasants, but descriptions of battles make it clear that they are neither untrained or undisciplined. The only times when they fail is in conditions in which Roman legions or Byzantine armies would have failed as well. Whatever else they may be, these guys are trained professionals. Northern infantry holds against missile barrage and following heavy cavalry charge, and while tactical decision to enter the Blackwater was idiotic, manner in which it was done shows that fleet is also professional. And descriptions of armies - Northen army, Lannister army - show that most infantry are pikemen and longbowmen. Both of these are types of troops which require heavy training and discipline to be effective. In other words, professionals, or at least troops which will be as effective as professionals (such as city militias).

Mongols also knew how to storm, sack and starve out cities, and were familiar with knightly tactics. It did not help them in Europe. Problem is terrain: when Mongols attacked southern Croatia, they had to retreat for fear of being cut off in mountain passes. Which nearly did happen. And Westeros is basically Europe. It is not the steppe which Dothraki are used to. And Dothraki will be dealing with predominantly 14th-15th century militaries equipped with pikes and crossbows instead of actual 13th century militaries Mongols had to deal with.

This is what Mongols had to deal with:

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/c2/8c/3a/c28c3adc76b3c5d5036c5ee8b239c339.jpg

This is what Dothraki will be dealing with:

https://i.pinimg.com/originals/d9/eb/6d/d9eb6d69b8a12dc9b0354fbdb46a08d6.jpg

Keep in mind, weapons are not the only relevant part here. Westerosi organization, logistics etc. are - or should be - much more advanced than 13th century Hungaro-Croatian arrangements were. FIrst Mongol invasion of Hungary was a success because Hungarians were disorganized. This is what happened when they actually got their sh*t together:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Second_Mongol_invasion_of_Hungary

Quote

In the winter of 1285, Mongol armies invaded Hungary for a second time. ... Local Hungarian forces fought the Mongols in many defensive battles, for which the king had promoted several lesser officials who had distinguished themselves, including Amade Aba, George Baksa, and Peter of Sáros.[38] One such battle took place near the castle of Turusko (Trascau), where the Mongols suffered a sharp defeat with heavy casualties, including 1,000 taken prisoner.[39] Talabuga's weakened army was ultimately defeated[40] when met head-on in battle by the hastily assembled royal army of Ladislaus IV, in the hills of western Transylvania.[41] The army had benefited from the reforms and had a higher proportion of knights than the army the Mongols had defeated a few decades earlier at Mohi.

After the defeat, Talabuga ordered a retreat from Hungary, but his army was ambushed on the return by the Székely people, who fought as light cavalry. By the time he made it back to friendly territory, his army had effectively ceased to exist, with the majority of the soldiers he brought dying in the failed raid.[42] By the hyperbole of one chronicler, Talabuga arrived back in Ruthenia with only his wife and one horse. Once he finally reached Volynia, his starving soldiers plundered the towns of his allies and vassals.[43]

Transylvania and the Hungarian Plains Nogai stayed in Transylvania until the spring of 1286. Here he plundered some towns and villages, such as Szászrégen (Reghin), Brassó (Braşov) and Beszterce (Bistrița). He also managed to destroy a few forts and walled towns. However, like Talabuga, he failed to take any major fortifications, with the exception of the Saxon castle of Ban Mikod in the Aranyos Valley, the former royal stronghold of Torda (today Turda, Romania).[44][45] After the defeat of Talabuga's main column, King Ladislaus IV led an expedition to expel Nogai's forces from Transylvania. His army arrived too late to make a significant difference, as Nogai's forces had already suffered a serious defeat at the hands of local Hungarian troops- mostly the Saxons, Vlachs, and Székelys, commanded by Voivode Roland Borsa.[46] Ladislaus settled for harassing their withdrawal. ... No major invasion of Hungary would be launched after the failure of the campaign of 1285, though small raids from the Golden Horde were frequent well into the 14th century. Less than two years later, the Third Mongol invasion of Poland occurred. This invasion was also repulsed, with the Poles using a similar strategy to the Hungarians in 1285. They were aided by a Hungarian force under George Baksa (also known as George of Sóvár).[47] It was probably in reprisal for this event that in late 1288, a Mongol force launched an attack on the Szepes (Spiš) region, albeit on a small scale. They were repelled, with George again distinguishing himself.[48] [/QUOTE]

Mongols were defeated in multiple open battles. By an enemy much less sophisticated technologically, tactically and logistically than Westerosi armies. The only way Dothraki - or any element of Daenerys' army, really - will be able to stand against Westerosi is either:

a) Deus ex Machina

or

b) Martin (again) not getting his history right

But if he gets it right? Dothraki are getting slaughtered.

Back to the question of Dothraki bows. This is what Mongol tactics looked like:

https://i.imgur.com/wIyBqk5.png

They would charge in, release arrows at close range, and retreat. Rinse and repeat. It is perfect for usage against Westerosi knights who have no missile capacity and charge in like idiots - or at least it would be, if not for the fact that said knights have horse barding. Which most knights' horses appear to have. But Westerosi infantry is equipped with pikes and armed with longbows. Attempting that tactic against such a force would get Dothraki slaughtered. And they do not have heavy cavalry to crack such formations open. Despite what you believe, foot archers are actually at advantage against mounted ones. In fact, foot archers and crossbowmen were used to - very effectively - counter mounted archer tactics, by both Europeans (against Arabs and Turks) and Chinese (against Mongols). In both cases, response of mounted archers was to either a) adopt heavy cavalry (which Danerys does not have) or b) avoid battle with sedentary armies.

Also, each Dothraki ought to come with three horses. Let's assume that each Westerosi ship is 8 times in volume of Byzantine dromond - but capacity will not be eight times as distance is much greater. Let's also assume largest Byzantine horse transports - which could have carried 30 horses each (actual dromond had capacity of only 10 horses, if even that). That is 240 horses for short distance trip, but 80 horses per ship for a long-distance one - which means only 25 Dothraki riders per ship. In 763 AD, 800 ships were required to carry 9 600 cavalry troops - that is 12 per ship (likely including spare horses?), so 96 troops per ship for Westerosi dromonds. If we go for a long-distance trip, this goes down to 32 per ship.

Drogo's khalasar was 40 000 strong, but only maybe 4 000 - 8 000 will have been warriors. Let's assume 8 000. This alone will have required 250 ships. General troops transports may be able to transport 1 600 people for short distance, which means possibly up to 500 for long trip, considering how oversized ASoIaF ships tend to be (which is idiotic considering they are a) built of wood and b) operate on ocean, but let's roll with it and not assume they will be falling apart due to stresses of hull flexing).

Add to this 10 000 Unsullied and maybe 10 000 other troops. Again, Nikephoros Phokas had 300 warships, 300 transports and 77 000 men when he invaded Crete. So those 20 000 troops would add 30 - 40 transport ships.

This is without bringing Dothraki families - another 32 000 people - and freed slaves, which may number up to 100 000. These 132 000 people will have required 198 ships.

Thus we have 250 + 30 + 200 = 480 ships. And this is assuming large Westerosi-like ships. Add warships, and you easily get 700 - 1 000 ships. Now, considering fleet sizes in ASoIaF (which are as "realistic" as everything else), this is not impossible to assemble. What is a problem is getting them all to Westeros. Golden Company, a force of 10 000, ended up "all over" eastern coast, with half the number MIA. And that is with a force which, considering above numbers, will have required no more than 10 - 20 ships, during a sailing season (although the cause of that were the storms, so basically sailing season was nearing its end). Danerys will be attempting a crossing in winter, with - as can be seen above - a fleet 25 - 50 times the size of Aegon's fleet. Chances are, she will suffer serious losses even before she lands. Far more than half of her force may end up MIA or KIA during the crossing itself.

And it is easy to say, "Dothraki will do this and that". But how are Dothraki - and their horses - supposed to survive in winter? Westerosi troops will have food in the castles (whatever is available); Daenerys will have to bring all the food with her army.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Simply by inspiring fear. Most of Westerosi infantry are untrained and undisciplined peasants - they are likely to break as soon as the see the Dothraki charging at them ... but if they were to stand somehow magically, the arrows would quickly enough crush them. The Dothraki have the means to kill both knights and infantry men without even getting close to them. Because they have the best bows in the world, and they are able to use them while riding - giving them the ability to evade the stationary Westerosi archers.

The Dothraki can and did storm and sack dozens of cities in the past, and every single Sarnori city was larger and most likely better protected even in defeat than any small Westerosi castle is today. The Dothraki also know how to starve out cities - they did so with Mardosh the Unconquerable - and unlike in the old times they will be briefed and advised in their tactics by people from Westeros.

Dany doesn't have to conquer any castle directly to force the Westerosi lords and knights to bend their knees to them - it would be more than enough to seize all their lands, (threaten to) burn their villages and towns. Especially in winter the people won't have it that they are attacked just because their lords don't want to make peace.

Valyrian steel is steel. It will not protect you against summer sun, let alone dragonfire. If anything, ballistae on Westerosi warships are much greater danger to dragons than anything Euron can bring to bear.

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But they are likely going to become dragonriders while Dany isn't back in Slaver's Bay yet. If either of the mentioned fellows claims a dragon it is likely to happen during the battle that's unfolding right now. And then they will have the power and authority and prestige that comes with being the first living dragonriders in history since, possibly, Rhaena Targaryen. Daenerys is missing and presumed dead. Vic, Ben, or Tyrion could decide that they being dragonriders means they run the show now. Which means they could decide to go to Westeros to claim the Iron Throne and not bother with Dany.

Chances are very low that they would ever consider joining a dragonless Aegon or Euron. Why would they want to do that? Dragons are power in a more real sense than feigned ancestry.

Again, that rather depends on how Daenerys behaves from then on. If anything, gaining dragons will make them more likely to abandon her, precisely because - as you note - having a dragon means having power, authority and prestige. If one of new dragonriders concludes that Daenerys is not fit to be a queen, what is to prevent them from either trying to establish themselves or (more likely) trying to be a "power behind the throne" by supporting a pretender who does not have dragon yet?

15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is not what Euron is planning - he expects the Redwynes to come for him, he doesn't try to surprise them. Euron is not going to rely on mundane military nonsense, he will use sorcery to help defeat them. And he will continue to use magic in his conquest, possibly getting stronger and stronger as time passes.

So you are expecting ASoIaF to turn into Codex Allera?

 

 

[Hodor the Articulate]

23 hours ago, Aldarion said:

Whether it makes story more believable or not is irrelevant. What matters is the change in context.

Say there was another silver-haired purple-eyed boy claiming he was the real Aegon, and that a witch had plucked him out of the timestream. His story passes no one's bullshit detector, but he somehow manages to drive Cersei out of KL and now sits the IT. The lords that were initially like "lol gtfo" now say "welp, I guess anyone who challenges his credibility now must just be trying to overthrow him, even though I also found it highly suspect before". That's what you're arguing rn.

On 6/3/2020 at 12:09 AM, Aldarion said:

He is not. Neither is anybody else, and he is frankly better option than most other alternatives. Possibly including Daenerys, depending on how her (and his) future development goes.

This is what you JUST said about Aegon: " George Martin is, among other things, deconstructing the trope that "rightful king = good king". To me, said deconstruction is not complete unless we get a good king who is not a rightful king". But now he isn't a good king??

On 6/3/2020 at 12:09 AM, Aldarion said:

I was talking from historical perspective, not necessarily Martin's. As for whether he will be shown ot be capable or not, that also depends on how quickly Daenerys comes West.

How long will it take to overthrow Cersei and deal with Euron and Stannis? Unless you think Dany is going to dawdle in Essoss for a few more years, Aegon will likely never advance past being at war. We can probably guess what kind of a ruler he'd be based on his personality, though.