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Lord Varys

Aegon as a king

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I'm wondering how you guys think this will play out - if it happens, that is.

I'm asking because there seems to be a consensus developing that Aegon is sort of going to be able to paint Daenerys as an evil foreign invader, etc. but I'm wondering if George is really going to plan to do that.

Yes, if Aegon allies with the High Septon and gets the Seven on his side he should be able to strike a great propaganda coup against the female pretender.

But he doesn't have any dragons, and dragons are a symbol of royal power and legitimacy both - that's why Daemon II wanted to hatch a dragon and Bloodraven feared he might get a living dragon, just as being a dragonrider usually silenced rumors about your illegitimate parentage (in the case of King Aenys and Rhaenyra's elder sons) or forestalled attempted coups (the reason Alyssa Velaryon accepted the marriage of her children was that they had dragons and she and her husband didn't have dragons).

Varys has set up Aegon to be an ideal and caring king, one who will heal the wounds of bleeding Westeros, etc. - but it would be a very uninteresting story if he actually did that and only the arrival of his evil aunt would stop him from building the paradise the eunuch wants him to create. Not to mention that Aegon seems to be a lie to slay in Dany's vision, not an obstacle on her way to power.

In that sense I'm wondering what kind of king you think Aegon is going to be. A tragic hero of sorts, following the example of Robb and Daeron I (in the eyes of some), or is he going to follow in the footsteps of Maegor the Cruel and Aerys II?

Do you expect his rise to the throne to be more or less bloodless, with the problem of Denethor Tommen and Myrcella resolving itself, or will he bloody his hands in a similar manner as Robert Baratheon did when he took the throne? Will people continue to cheer him throughout his reign, or is his reign going to be as short and end in a similar manner as Rhaenyra's short time on the Iron Throne ended?

If he is going to be a great/pretty good king how is this going to work with Stannis in the North, and Euron in the Reach? Even before Dany starts on her Westeros he would likely have to fight enemies on all sides.

And how is the true parentage story going to play out for him? Will this only be an issue when Dany arrives, or is this going to be something Aegon's Westerosi enemies will (successfully) use against him from the start?

And finally - will he become a dragonrider? Can we assume that a Second Dance of the Dragons means both pretenders will have to become dragonriders?

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Well his ascendancy is going to be anything but bloodless. There is going to be a Westerosi Agincourt, but as we know Agincourt involved massacring thousands if not tens of thousands of prisoners. So while he may be a good King he will be so atop the pile of skulls made by Jon Conn. Also after Agincourt the shtshow that is going to be KL is probably going to make the Moon of Madness in the Dance seem like child's play.

Aegon is also going to be considered legitimate, or at least nobody is going to dare say otherwise, without a shred of proof. (there is no actual proof that he isn't who he claims he is) He is going to further get legitimized when he rides a dragon, the gold one I can't remember his name. He is going to be good King in the sense that he is going to be loved by the masses, and is actually going to treat his subjects nicely and attentively, which is something Kl hasn't seen since Aegon V.

But most importantly Dany is going to be seen as evil when she kills him for the following reasons:

- Aegon will be the champion of the Faith so she's going to be seen as a bit of an anti Christ. Having an army of literal pagans isn't going to help much (and probably blood thirsty savages in the form of the Dothraki). So whatever happens she is going to be very badly viewed by the followers of the Seven.

- Aegon will be a popular King. That means that when she overthrows him she is going to get a lot of hate, regardless of her stated reason.

- She will be considered a kinslayer. Even is he is a Blackfyre or a Brightflame, it would be kinslaying. You might say it's not closely related, but given how much people will hate her, they will be more then willing to bend the truth.

- She can't prove dick. She may have suspicions on who Aegon is, but she won't be able to prove it. After he tames a dragon everyone will believe him genuine. So when she kills him, she will be seen as an usurper, a kinslayer, all that good stuff. And what could she say. ,,No he wasn't a Targ because... actually I have no proof"

After Aegon is dead he will no longer need to prove anything. Dany will be the one who has to prove he isn't legitimate. The perks of being dead I guess... Also you say she is going to slay the lie, How? How could she prove he isn't legit. I always took it to mean she will slay someone she believes to be a lie.

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55 minutes ago, Mithras said:

fAegon won't take King's Landing and he won't ride a dragon.

There'd be no point introducing him at this point in the story if he wasn't going to be a major player, at least in the short term.

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Aegon is a skilled swordsman.  That gives him an advantage in the eyes of some.  He does seem impulsive and easily swayed.  I do not think the lad is ready for prime time.  May never be.  He will be putty in the hands of a seductress like Arianne Martell.  And that will be his ruin.  The Martells are crazy. 

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10 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

There'd be no point introducing him at this point in the story if he wasn't going to be a major player, at least in the short term.

and that proves he has to take King's Landing because ...

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13 hours ago, Adam Yozza said:

There'd be no point introducing him at this point in the story if he wasn't going to be a major player, at least in the short term.

Remember what happened with Quentyn Martell.

But I still think he will be king, a better one than Robert or Cersei. I'm betting on a tragic hero, Dany is going to kill him in the new dance of dragons and after his death, the Long Night will begin. His true parentage will be an issue for many people, but Dany will be the only one to find the truth; but I don't have ideas on "how it's going to play out" yet.

I don't think he's going to be a dragon rider though.

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13 minutes ago, Willam Stark said:

Remember what happened with Quentyn Martell.

But I still think he will be king, a better one than Robert or Cersei. I'm betting on a tragic hero, Dany is going to kill him in the new dance of dragons and after his death, the Long Night will begin. His true parentage will be an issue for many people, but Dany will be the only one to find the truth; but I don't have ideas on "how it's going to play out" yet.

I don't think he's going to be a dragon rider though.

 

5 hours ago, cyberdirectorfreedom said:

Yeah, just like Quentyn Martell!

Oh.

I get what you mean but I think there's a difference. Quentyn was a character we already knew existed and just wasn't actually seen until Feast (or Dance, I actually can't remember which one it was) wheras Aegon was quite literally pulled out of nowhere.

I'm also betting we've not yet seen the full consequences of Quentyn's story. Even if his actual lifespan in the story was quite short, I'm betting his actions and or death will have a much greater impact in Dany's story down the line, likely costing her the allegiance of Dorne when she does arrive.

Likewise, I can't see the point of introducing Aegon and JonCon, giving him a strong army and having him conquer the Stormlands just to have Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly crush him. If he beats the Reach; and storywriting logic says he will; then there's only thing further for him to do; take King's Landing. Between the fact that its right there in front of him, with no allies available and no army left besides whatever garrison got left behind, the faith in the middle of an uprising and very against the Lannisters and the likelihood of Dany not arriving until the very end of Winds/ the beginning of Dream everything is stacked perfectly for Aegon to take K.L.

It'd be ridiculous if, after taking Storm's End and beating the Reach at Agincourt 2.0 he just sat twiddling his thumbs in the Kingswood until Dany arrives. Especially since I can't see that Reach-Golden Company battle being any later than halfway through and likely much earlier. 

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Yes. He has purely been introduced to create problems for Dany and it’s an incredibly contrived plot twist. Another surprise Targaryen swoops in to take the throne thus putting her in the position of opposing many people who would be her allies. 

Ostensibly they’re allies and they talk as if they are that. Many readers have just seen completely through this and realises that they are going to be enemies. It’s obvious.

I think he is going to be a full on Henry IV style King who will be victorious and carried to victory over the crumbling Lannister fortunes. His problems are going to start when the Gods curse him with Greyscale like the leper King out of Kingdom of Heaven and when that starts ravaging the capital. The Faith could very well turn on him as that would sure look like divine punishment if Greyscale strikes the city. 

Since this is a satire it would not surprise me if George has it where he’s initially an extremely popular King vis a vis a hated Dany, but later on, maybe even after Dany is dead n done all the nasty things, that sharply changes due all the events of the series. If Dany ends up helping defeat the Others whilst he’s in KL and they’re all dying of Greyscale before murdering the Messiah; that’s not going to paint him in a positive light. So the mob turns against the perfect King because power rests where men believe it does.

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16 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys has set up Aegon to be an ideal and caring king, one who will heal the wounds of bleeding Westeros, etc. - but it would be a very uninteresting story if he actually did that and only the arrival of his evil aunt would stop him from building the paradise the eunuch wants him to create. Not to mention that Aegon seems to be a lie to slay in Dany's vision, not an obstacle on her way to power.

This.  I think this is what Rhaegar means by the PWiP.   The three heads of the dragon could be interpreted as: the father who provides protection; the mother who provides nurturing and the teacher who provides wisdom.  All three together show the way.  Aegon has been given substitutes while Dany is fending for herself.  She needs the wisdom to know what will happen when dragons come into the world again and what to do with them.  Aemon says that everyone will want them for the power it gives them.  She also needs the wisdom to know how to use the power she has been given.  

As for Aegon, I think if Dany is convinced at some point, that he is Rhaegar's son;  she will come to him in a time of great peril and join forces with him.  I think she will also cede any claims to the throne.  I don't think Aegon can create the paradise he wants to create until the very end of his song. 

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, if Aegon allies with the High Septon and gets the Seven on his side he should be able to strike a great propaganda coup against the female pretender.

I'm not that great at conjecture about war; I'm guessing that if Dany starts moving across Essos with a hundred thousand screamers; Euron may think twice about meeting Dany and head for Kingslanding to make a deal with Cersei to shore up his forces.  The High Sparrow may then decide to back Aegon's forces combined with Dorne's forces against Cersei's alliance with Euron.

Edited by LynnS

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Posted (edited)
17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But he doesn't have any dragons, and dragons are a symbol of royal power and legitimacy both

It might not matter since the people loved Rhaegar.  A dragon is also a scary creature to the population with no defenses against one. If someone recognizable can vouch for him; like Ashera Dayne, then that might be enough to win the population against Cersei.  That shouldn't be difficult to do.  Varys' would rather keep Cersei on the throne for a while to give Aegon that advantage.

Dany has also seen Rhaegar in the HoU and if Aegon looks like Rhaegar, indigo eyes notwithstanding; then that could be the final bit of evidence that she needs to recognize him as the true heir. 

17 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And finally - will he become a dragonrider? Can we assume that a Second Dance of the Dragons means both pretenders will have to become dragonriders?

If there are any dragons left for Aegon to ride; then perhaps, yes.  I am expecting Tyrion to get control of Rheagal and Victarion/Moqorro to get control of Viserion.  I expect another dance in this regard and at least one dragon to be killed.

I'm expecting both Aegon and Sansa to survive along with Tyrion.  To me this will be the ending of the song of ice and fire:

 - Sansa and Aegon marry.  This represents joining the land north to south; when love and hate can mate, according to Jojen. She will finally get her Dragonfly Prince as part of the bittersweet ending.

- If Rhaegal survives and I think he might under Tyrion's guardianship;  I can see Tyrion turning over the care and keeping of the last dragon to Aegon providing the legitimacy you describe.  I expect Tyrion will continue as advisor.

Edited by LynnS

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I have serious doubts Aegon's story will be widely believed, even by his allies. The sample chapters hint at this.

18 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Do you expect his rise to the throne to be more or less bloodless, with the problem of Denethor Tommen and Myrcella resolving itself, or will he bloody his hands in a similar manner as Robert Baratheon did when he took the throne?

This is the most interesting question for me. My impression of Aegon is that he's naive and a bit arrogant, but a generally decent fellow. So what is his plan for Tommen and Myrcella? I suspect JonCon will be the one to deal with them.

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Posted (edited)

I been thinking about a possibility of "evil" Dany even before TV Show came out. Just think about : Aegon will definitely take control of the Stormlands and, I think, will get the King's Landing without a fight, considering that he heard about "a cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd, which probably means that by the time Aegon will get there, city will be happy to see "son of Rhaegar" saving them from wherever. Such enthusiasm of citizens will be probably a result on 33% of Varys's work, 34% of Cersei's f*ck up's and the rest 33% of High Sparrow's blessings, to which Tyene Sand and Aegon's personality contribute a lot. By that time. by my speculations, Tommen would die. Tyrrells will join Aegon : mysterious "friends from the Reach" will push Mace to Egg and Ko after the Tyrells would lose interest in alliance with the Lannisters and due to increased threat of Eurone (He will crush the fleet of Paxter Redwyne, info is 100% correct).

When Daenerys will get to Westeros with her forces, which would consist mostly of Victarion ironborn fleet, Unsullied and dothrakis (she will take control of, at the very minimum, whole Jhaqo's khalasar ( *dothraki by culture are nomadic riders, so when they see  Daenerys on top of Drogon, they will start to worship her as some kinds of goddess),  Aegon would control at least half of the 7Kingdoms, including the capital - King's Landing.

So, by the time of the "Dance", for most people of Westeros images of the "dancers" will be clear, on one side Golden Company, knights, lords, church and military orders, and on other : terrible dragons, war eunuchs, wild savages and ironborns... You can probably guess for whom they would be rooting for and who will look like a hero, and who like a villain.

Edited by Malgoth

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Well, I'm all in with a scenario that has Aegon winning the throne quickly.

But what then? Dany may not even have secured the Dothraki by the time Aegon sits the Iron Throne. And Stannis, Euron, and Cersei won't cheer him, ever. Nor is his taking the throne not pacifying the Riverlands magically, prevent the Westermen from raising another army to crush him, restore peace in the North, or defeat the Others/prevent the fall of the Wall.

Aegon has no ships to challenge Euron at sea, and he is not likely to get any. Like Rhaenyra did when she took the throne he will seize an empty treasury, causing him a lot of problems in that department. Illyrio might be able to help him out with money for a time, but the Iron Bank signed a contract with Stannis and will see him as the rightful king now while he yet lives, not Aegon.

I'm sure we will see many Targaryen loyalists rushing to him, many common people, many hedge knights and freeriders, and many small lords and landed knights from all the Seven Kingdoms (especially the Crownlands, the Riverlands, and the Reach).

And Dorne will definitely stand with him, and possibly even the Vale is going to join him.

But all that is not going to help him crush Euron and the West/Cersei.

If there is a greyscale/grey plague epidemic in Westeros - and that's what I think why Jon caught greyscale - he should quickly lose popularity. If he were to take the throne like Robert did - by himself or through his agents brutally murdering Tommen and/or Myrcella this is going to mar his public image, too. They were just children, after all, like he and his sister were.

And then there is the question how he will deal with the people who continue to resist him after he has taken the throne. I think we can expect him to be lenient and generous while his campaign takes up steam, welcoming whatever Stormlords and Reach lords join him before he has taken KL, but what will he do when he is crowned and anointed and married to Arianne and there are still a lot of lords and knights who don't recognize him as king? Will he persecute them harshly? Will he attaint many a Lannister/Baratheon loyalist to have the lordships and lands he needs to reward the officers and men of the Golden Company? We can expect him to create a new Lord of Storm's End, a new Lord of Rosby, a new Lord of Stokeworth (unless Bronn turns his cloak in time and does something to win his favor), a new Lord of Hayford (by giving Ermesande a new husband of his choosing), but will all that be enough or is he going to target other houses, too?

How popular will he be when Dany finally gets moving? How many people will buy that he is truly Rhaegar's son?

I mean, Tyrion's talk about keeping the dragon close is not just about the power of dragons, but also the prestige that comes with a dragon. Dany's dragons are wonders, not huge monsters people will be afraid of. In winter they won't be able to burn cities or towns or castles. At best the dragonriders should be able to serve as scouts and to attack smaller armies, especially infantry. And we can expect that no one in Westeros or Essos knows how to deal with a dragon in the enemy army because they have been gone for 150 years and you really have to be familiar with the beasts to know their weak spots and shortcomings, etc. - which none of the lords and knights in Westeros is.

I struggle with the idea that Dany is going to be seen unanimously as the Mad King's daughter and Aegon as Rhaegar's son when Dany is just as much Rhaegar's sister as Aerys' daughter. Those people and players who bet on Aegon, who married him, staff his council, fill his court, profited from his rise to the throne should stand with him, of course. But how many will that be? And how many people will by that time stand with the other Westerosi pretenders/enemies Aegon still has?

Even the Faith might start to lose followers by the time Dany shows up because Euron is likely going to become a sorcerer-king offering his own solution to the winter/Others problem, while Thoros spreads the belief in R'hllor in the Riverlands, Stannis in the North, and if Bran ever starts to speak through the weirwood trees the belief in the old gods might return everywhere in Westeros.

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Aegon real or not will have an impact in the story.  My own suspicion is he was introduced to take the place of Jon Snow in the plot.  Jon is not coming back in human form.  Aegon will punish the remnants of the families who led the rebellion and reward those who stayed loyal.  He will be the final antagonists to Cersei and the Lannisters.  Arrianne will bind House Martell to Aegon and together they will start a war with the Lannisters. 

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As hard as I try to see it, I can't. I don't think this Dance 2.0 will be between Dany and Aegon. Nothing says that it has to follow the original one. 

I don't know why he would start calling her a foreign invader when he spent as long in Essos as she did. I think doing so would also hurt his cause. I don't know why he would try to antagonize her and essentially declare war on her when she has 3 dragons (even if she arrives in Westeros with less than 3 dragons, she still has more dragon than he does). 

I think he is going to follow the path that Tyrion laid before him. Go to Westeros, conquer as much as he can and hope for her to come and join him so that they can make common cause. And if Jon Connington is smart, he will send Dany an envoy once she is out of Slaver's Bay.

Dany's real enemy at the end of the day is Euron, the guy who is trying to bind her dragons to his will. He is more poised to take over Westeros than Aegon is.

Beyond all this, I think that Aegon will be in the north by the time Dany makes it to Westeros.

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How much people north of Red Mountains hate Dornishmen and Golden Company? Or there is a possibility that marrying Arianne will actually make more enemies for Aegon . After all nobles in Reach had to worry what promises that invader had made. Or they would suspect that new king would give away their lands and castles to his supporters and local nobles would be in danger to lose some of their property.

So I assume that invasion of Aegon will fail bc he will not gain enough support to secure his crown. After all both Dorne and Stormlands had weak economy and small army and so even their total support would not be enough to secure his crown. 

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57 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

I mean, Tyrion's talk about keeping the dragon close is not just about the power of dragons, but also the prestige that comes with a dragon. Dany's dragons are wonders, not huge monsters people will be afraid of. In winter they won't be able to burn cities or towns or castles. At best the dragonriders should be able to serve as scouts and to attack smaller armies, especially infantry. And we can expect that no one in Westeros or Essos knows how to deal with a dragon in the enemy army because they have been gone for 150 years and you really have to be familiar with the beasts to know their weak spots and shortcomings, etc. - which none of the lords and knights in Westeros is.

I'm not sure that Euron will get a dragon given Moqorro's intervention.  We don't know his agenda yet, but I think it includes bringing a dragon back to the Temple of R'hllor rather than turning it over to Euron.  Dany will want him back fast and it will give her the impetus to move south to Volantis (where the slaves are waiting to be freed).   I suspect that the great temple of R'hllor is actually a dragon pit.

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