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Lord Varys

Aegon as a king

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2 hours ago, Malgoth said:

I think, will get the King's Landing without a fight, considering that he heard about "a cloth dragon swayed on poles amidst a cheering crowd, which probably means that by the time Aegon will get there, city will be happy to see "son of Rhaegar" saving them from wherever.

Oldtown

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25 minutes ago, Mithras said:

Oldtown

If you implying that Aegon and Co will save the day by retaking/protecting Oldtown from Euron and get famous doing so, then I don't know how it's even possible. Even if "dark horse" Aurane Waters will decide to pick a new patron and join his fleet to Aegon's forces, ten ships, even large dromonds, are not nearly enough to beat Euron's fleet which will certainly smash Paxter's.

 

By the way, guys, Gerold Dayne definitely will  join Aegon and, probably, will become a member of his Kingsguard. Not only it will be symbolic - Dayne (maybe with stolen sword Dawn) in the kingsguard, but also the most logical development for the character of the Darkstar : after becoming an outlaw in Dorne his only option is to leave it. And the closest possible destination for him is a rising power Aegon, who currently is in the war with Lannisters.

P.S. If Aegon is half Dayne, by some theory, Gerold's joining to the Young Griff would make a lot of sense.

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41 minutes ago, Malgoth said:

If you implying that Aegon and Co will save the day by retaking/protecting Oldtown from Euron and get famous doing so, then I don't know how it's even possible. Even if "dark horse" Aurane Waters will decide to pick a new patron and join his fleet to Aegon's forces, ten ships, even large dromonds, are not nearly enough to beat Euron's fleet which will certainly smash Paxter's.

Here and Here.

41 minutes ago, Malgoth said:

By the way, guys, Gerold Dayne definitely will  join Aegon and, probably, will become a member of his Kingsguard. Not only it will be symbolic - Dayne (maybe with stolen sword Dawn) in the kingsguard, but also the most logical development for the character of the Darkstar : after becoming an outlaw in Dorne his only option is to leave it. And the closest possible destination for him is a rising power Aegon, who currently is in the war with Lannisters.

P.S. If Aegon is half Dayne, by some theory, Gerold's joining to the Young Griff would make a lot of sense.

fAegon will marry Arianne. How do you think she will react to Darkstar joining fAegon's KG? I think Darkstar will slay Hotah and Obara. Then he will flee across the Narrow Sea along with Balon Swann to join Dany.

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Mithras said:

Here and Here.

Well, there a lot of problems with those theories. First of all, Mace Tyrell is married and has children with Alerie Hightower, the daughter of Lord Leyton Hightower, so wherever side Hightowers will pick out is solely depends on the Tyrells. So there is no allusion on the first Dance of Dragons. Secondly, as I mentioned, there is no logical way for JonCon and Egg to get quickly the Oldtown or, more importantly, to defeat ironborn on the sea. "Friends from the Reach" can't be many house. So it's probably a Peake, who have living relatives in the GK, or, if those relatives claiming lost titles, friends could be Rowans or Caswells. Last house is interesting because it has unpleasant history with Rolly Duckfield.

40 minutes ago, Mithras said:

fAegon will marry Arianne. How do you think she will react to Darkstar joining fAegon's KG? I think Darkstar will slay Hotah and Obara. Then he will flee across the Narrow Sea along with Balon Swann to join Dany.

If Arianne decides that Aegon is probably real, then she wouldn't see a point in marrying her first cousin. If she decides that he's a fake... Well, marriage with adventurer with unknown origin is quite dumb, and Arianne isn't stupid.

Edited by Malgoth

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3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

As hard as I try to see it, I can't. I don't think this Dance 2.0 will be between Dany and Aegon. Nothing says that it has to follow the original one. 

It definitely won't be the original one since there are only three dragons around, and not twenty. Nor is House Targaryen particularly fertile at the moment. But the seeds for a Dance where Dany and Aegon will be two of the main pretenders are there. Of course, chances are not that bad that Euron-Cersei, Stannis, and perhaps even Tommen/Myrcella might be around to play a role there, too.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I don't know why he would start calling her a foreign invader when he spent as long in Essos as she did. I think doing so would also hurt his cause. I don't know why he would try to antagonize her and essentially declare war on her when she has 3 dragons (even if she arrives in Westeros with less than 3 dragons, she still has more dragon than he does). 

I think he is going to follow the path that Tyrion laid before him. Go to Westeros, conquer as much as he can and hope for her to come and join him so that they can make common cause. And if Jon Connington is smart, he will send Dany an envoy once she is out of Slaver's Bay.

There will be people who are going to try to keep a seat warm for Daenerys, Jon Connington made that clear in his last chapter. Aegon should not marry Arianne Martell, he was adamant about that. But now Arianne Martell is coming to Storm's End. He cannot stop Aegon from marrying her if Aegon wanted to do that. And they will all grow less enthusiastic about Dany when they learn that she married Hizdahr and that she disappeared or even died. A dead woman cannot marry Aegon, and neither can a woman whose marriage to a Meereenese nobleman seems to indicate she has chosen to settle in Slaver's Bay for good. Varys and Illyrio's people haven't spoken to Dany in a long time. They don't know what she wants. If Aegon is struggling in Westeros while Dany might be dead they have to deal with the situation at hand. And that is going to include alliances sealed by marriage.

We can be pretty sure Arianne is not going to betray Quentyn while she doesn't know about his death, but as soon as she learns about his death she will make herself Aegon's queen. And prior to that, Dorne is going to support Aegon for the time being since they have a momentum to crush the Lannisters and win the Iron Throne. They might already fall in love/start an affair before the news about Quentyn come, of course.

And once Gerris and Arch come back - assuming they do - the picture of Dany they paint will be ugly and evil, and Arianne - who already imagines Dany had Viserys III killed so she could spite Arianne/take the throne herself - is going direct the guilt she feels about Quentyn's death (based on her latent jealousy that he was to be the king consort not she the queen consort with Viserys III) directly against Dany.

That much is already in the text. Quentyn Martell was set up to die so that Aegon and Dany can dance later and Dorne will be firmly in camp Aegon during that war.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Dany's real enemy at the end of the day is Euron, the guy who is trying to bind her dragons to his will. He is more poised to take over Westeros than Aegon is.

Sure, and he certainly might take the throne from Aegon. But I actually expect Euron and Dany to clash on her way to Westeros in a naval battle.

3 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

Beyond all this, I think that Aegon will be in the north by the time Dany makes it to Westeros.

He could be someplace else. I'd expect him to leave KL for other campaigns after he has taken the throne. First for the Riverlands to restore order there and then perhaps on to the West to subdue them. He could be stuck there when/if Aegon attacks KL.

I'd also expect Cersei and Euron to plan a two-pronged attack on Aegon. She raising a new army in the West while Euron takes his fleet to KL. Their alliance ideally will not involve a public announcement, i.e. they will meet and marry clandestinely and it will only be revealed that they are husband and wife once or if they take the Iron Throne.

But the idea of Aegon eventually going North also makes sense. The guys up there should send word about recent developments down, there might even be some sort of gathering where the Others are discussed, etc. Although that could also happen only later. Stannis is not likely to ever contact this Aegon fraud.

4 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

How much people north of Red Mountains hate Dornishmen and Golden Company? Or there is a possibility that marrying Arianne will actually make more enemies for Aegon . After all nobles in Reach had to worry what promises that invader had made. Or they would suspect that new king would give away their lands and castles to his supporters and local nobles would be in danger to lose some of their property.

So I assume that invasion of Aegon will fail bc he will not gain enough support to secure his crown. After all both Dorne and Stormlands had weak economy and small army and so even their total support would not be enough to secure his crown. 

Being the first man ever who took Storm's End will make him very famous. People will flock to his banner. And yes, there is a chance that once/if Arianne becomes Aegon's queen people will start to fret about 'Dornish influence at court' as they did back during the reign of Daeron II. But Dorne will be strong, and the others will be reasonably weak and far away. The only real danger would be the Westermen, but they will need time to raise another army. And the Vale is likely to either join Aegon or stay out of that war, too. They won't oppose him.

The real unknown is the ultimate allegiance of the Reach. We can expect a lot of lords to declare for Aegon never mind what the Tyrells do, but whoever they choose will have a pretty big impact. The Ironborn threat will likely prevent the Reach from raising another huge army for Aegon, but the lords of the Reach far from the coast and the shores of the Mander will be able to send men, at least for the original conquest thing. Whether Mace or Willas later decide to support him full-heartedly or remain neutral/focus on Euron is going to influence things.

4 hours ago, LynnS said:

I'm not sure that Euron will get a dragon given Moqorro's intervention.  We don't know his agenda yet, but I think it includes bringing a dragon back to the Temple of R'hllor rather than turning it over to Euron.  Dany will want him back fast and it will give her the impetus to move south to Volantis (where the slaves are waiting to be freed).   I suspect that the great temple of R'hllor is actually a dragon pit.

The question is whether Vic gets a dragon, not Euron. Euron isn't in Slaver's Bay. Moqorro is clearly there to prevent Euron from messing with Dany - and the plan Benerro has for Dany. He won't allow the Ironborn to steal a dragon. One can be pretty sure that this might even be the reason why Moqorro is with Victarion right now.

Moving a dragon to Volantis would be odd, considering the Volantenes are right now coming to Slaver's Bay. Instead, I imagine Moqorro is there to ensure that the right people claim the two dragons and that they do not fall into the hands of Dany's enemies.

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1 minute ago, Lord Varys said:

The question is whether Vic gets a dragon, not Euron

My mistake that is what I meant.  

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1 hour ago, Mithras said:

Here and Here.

fAegon will marry Arianne. How do you think she will react to Darkstar joining fAegon's KG? I think Darkstar will slay Hotah and Obara. Then he will flee across the Narrow Sea along with Balon Swann to join Dany.

George has confirmed that there will be multiple Areo chapters in TWoW. His quest to High Hermitage is not going to end with his death but might continue to Starfall and bring Dawn and Edric Dayne (who may have gone back home after Beric's death) back into the story. And perhaps Wylla, too.

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Dorne is culturally very different from most of Westeros.  It is not a good move for them to war with anybody.  If they go to war, they go to war alone.  They can side with Aegon at least get the Golden Company on their side.  If Cersei doesn't give them a better offer.  Which she or the Tyrells can easily do.  Sellswords are fickle. 

The best possible alliance for Aegon is with Queen Daenerys.  He rejected that.  The next best is a marriage to the Tyrells.  The vision of the mummer's dragon will take place in Oldtown.  You see, if he were to attack KL and even if he wins, the people are not going to be cheering.  Their shops, homes, properties will have been destroyed. They won't appreciate getting sacked by the Dornish and the GC.   But if he were to attack the Ironborn and win a victory in Oldtown, yes.  I can see the crowds feeling good. 

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7 minutes ago, James Fenimore Cooper XXII said:

Dorne is culturally very different from most of Westeros.  It is not a good move for them to war with anybody.  If they go to war, they go to war alone.  They can side with Aegon at least get the Golden Company on their side.  If Cersei doesn't give them a better offer.  Which she or the Tyrells can easily do.  Sellswords are fickle. 

The best possible alliance for Aegon is with Queen Daenerys.  He rejected that.  The next best is a marriage to the Tyrells.  The vision of the mummer's dragon will take place in Oldtown.  You see, if he were to attack KL and even if he wins, the people are not going to be cheering.  Their shops, homes, properties will have been destroyed. They won't appreciate getting sacked by the Dornish and the GC.   But if he were to attack the Ironborn and win a victory in Oldtown, yes.  I can see the crowds feeling good. 

KL won't be sacked. The people will open the gates and welcome the Targaryen king. It is going to go like the show Larys Strong threw for the Lads, although much more genuine. The Kingslanders are Targaryen people, they won't defend their city against a Targaryen pretender.

The only problem are the Tyrell men in the city, but they might refuse to fight, too, especially if Mace is killed or imprisoned during the battle that's going to take place before Aegon marches against KL.

Margaery won't be an option for Aegon. She is damaged goods now, even if she lives.

Marching to Oldtown makes no sense for Aegon, especially not if he isn't invited. He wants the Iron Throne, not clash with some Ironborn pirate king while he has no ships. He could only lose if he were to offer help the Hightowers. Instead, he will profit from the fact that the Reach is threatened by the Ironborn because that will not allow the Tyrells to focus too much on him while Tommen and Myrcella yet live.

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10 hours ago, Malgoth said:

First of all, Mace Tyrell is married and has children with Alerie Hightower, the daughter of Lord Leyton Hightower, so wherever side Hightowers will pick out is solely depends on the Tyrells.

It doesn't work that way.

10 hours ago, Malgoth said:

Secondly, as I mentioned, there is no logical way for JonCon and Egg to get quickly the Oldtown or, more importantly, to defeat ironborn on the sea.

There is no naval battle in my scenario.

10 hours ago, Malgoth said:

If Arianne decides that Aegon is probably real, then she wouldn't see a point in marrying her first cousin.

Again, it doesn't work that way.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

George has confirmed that there will be multiple Areo chapters in TWoW. His quest to High Hermitage is not going to end with his death but might continue to Starfall and bring Dawn and Edric Dayne (who may have gone back home after Beric's death) back into the story. And perhaps Wylla, too.

By rights, Hotah should die at his first chapter of TWoW. If GRRM decides to use him for exposition that he can't do by other means, he might get another chapter. But beyond that, giving more chapters to a mere camera is B A D W R I T I N G. The man doesn't have an arc. The man doesn't even have character.

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12 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Margaery won't be an option for Aegon. She is damaged goods now, even if she lives.

I don't agree with that part. If Tyrell's alliance with Lannisters will crumble, for example if Tommen dies or Tyrells will finaly get fed up with Cersei, they would likely try to secure union with new rising power - Aegon. Only way they can do that, is by marriage. So, Margaery is still in the game. Still, I would personally prefer Sansa for Aegon.

 

 

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8 hours ago, Mithras said:

By rights, Hotah should die at his first chapter of TWoW. If GRRM decides to use him for exposition that he can't do by other means, he might get another chapter. But beyond that, giving more chapters to a mere camera is B A D W R I T I N G. The man doesn't have an arc. The man doesn't even have character.

But that's not what's going to happen. He actually confirmed this. It actually seems his story with Obara and Balon Swann and Gerold Dayne is going to be important. I never expected that, either, but I guess it is going to involve Dayne stuff.

5 hours ago, Malgoth said:

I don't agree with that part. If Tyrell's alliance with Lannisters will crumble, for example if Tommen dies or Tyrells will finaly get fed up with Cersei, they would likely try to secure union with new rising power - Aegon. Only way they can do that, is by marriage. So, Margaery is still in the game. Still, I would personally prefer Sansa for Aegon.

In a scenario where Tommen/Myrcella die before the Tyrells and Aegon clash, this might be a realistic option, but we can be pretty sure that Aegon is not going to consider Margaery as a bride if he captures her as Tommen's wife or if he has to fight and kill/arrest her father and suffers losses fighting the Tyrell army. Especially if he hooks up with Arianne Martell before he even meets Margaery.

And while it seems likely that Tommen dies soon, we should not necessarily think both of Cersei's surviving children die at the same time. Myrcella could be around for quite some time, and Kevan expected that Mace would want to marry her to Willas if they were to end the Martell betrothal.

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On 5/27/2020 at 8:28 PM, Prince Rhaego's Soul said:

Aegon is a skilled swordsman.  That gives him an advantage in the eyes of some.  He does seem impulsive and easily swayed.  I do not think the lad is ready for prime time.  May never be.  He will be putty in the hands of a seductress like Arianne Martell.  And that will be his ruin.  The Martells are crazy. 

 

Is he a skilled swordsman, though? He failed spectacularly in his first real test outside of "the classroom":

Quote

The boy stood staring, as still as if he too were made of stone. His hand was on his sword hilt, but he seemed to have forgotten why.

 

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58 minutes ago, lehutin said:

 

Is he a skilled swordsman, though? He failed spectacularly in his first real test outside of "the classroom":

 

Well yes, he is afraid, sue him.  He is a decent enough swordsman tho.

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Posted (edited)
15 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In a scenario where Tommen/Myrcella die before the Tyrells and Aegon clash, this might be a realistic option, but we can be pretty sure that Aegon is not going to consider Margaery as a bride if he captures her as Tommen's wife or if he has to fight and kill/arrest her father and suffers losses fighting the Tyrell army. Especially if he hooks up with Arianne Martell before he even meets Margaery.

And while it seems likely that Tommen dies soon, we should not necessarily think both of Cersei's surviving children die at the same time. Myrcella could be around for quite some time, and Kevan expected that Mace would want to marry her to Willas if they were to end the Martell betrothal.

As we know from the Cersei's prophecy : "Gold will be their crowns, and gold their shrouds", which means that after the Tommen's death, Myrcella will be a queen for some time. If Tommen dies, Margaery will become a widow for a third time and quit being a queen, so Tyrells would no longer have a motivation to support the Lanninsters-on-the-throne, and possible Tyrells's proposition to marry Myrcella to Willas will be rejected by Cersei outright.

So, in this time period, where the Reach has a massive problems with the Euron's ironborn, it's possible for Mace to allied himself to Aegon's faction. That's where proposal to marry Margaery will came up, and I agree that it will be wisely rejected by JonCon or Aegon. Maybe Laswell Peake?

By the way. Maybe Cersei will try relive her own the past at the expense of her daughter, by proposing Myrcella to Aegon? After all, Cersei was fixated on the Rhaegar her whole life.

14 hours ago, lehutin said:

 

Is he a skilled swordsman, though? He failed spectacularly in his first real test outside of "the classroom":

 

I'm pretty sure that if it's you (or me) who come up against infectious-humanoid-stone-grey-monsters, we would just simply shit our pants. To fight a first real battle against a group of stone men, terribly unfortunate.

Edited by Malgoth
Found a quote

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1 hour ago, Malgoth said:

I'm pretty sure that if it's you (or me) who come up against infectious-humanoid-stone-grey-monsters, we would just simply shit our pants. To fight a first real battle against a group of stone men, terribly unfortunate.

Oh, I absolutely agree. But I'm just a regular guy. Varys isn't spinning tales about how perfect a King I will be ;)

 

And just to be clear, I don't think a great king must be a great warrior. It's fine that so far, Aegon hasn't shown himself to be a skilled swordsman. What's damning IMO is that he just stood there. He didn't run or shout for Duck, JonCon, etc. to defend him.

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On 5/27/2020 at 10:01 PM, Lord Varys said:

Varys has set up Aegon to be an ideal and caring king, one who will heal the wounds of bleeding Westeros, etc. - but it would be a very uninteresting story if he actually did that and only the arrival of his evil aunt would stop him from building the paradise the eunuch wants him to create. Not to mention that Aegon seems to be a lie to slay in Dany's vision, not an obstacle on her way to power.

In that sense I'm wondering what kind of king you think Aegon is going to be. A tragic hero of sorts, following the example of Robb and Daeron I (in the eyes of some), or is he going to follow in the footsteps of Maegor the Cruel and Aerys II?

Do you expect his rise to the throne to be more or less bloodless, with the problem of Denethor Tommen and Myrcella resolving itself, or will he bloody his hands in a similar manner as Robert Baratheon did when he took the throne? Will people continue to cheer him throughout his reign, or is his reign going to be as short and end in a similar manner as Rhaenyra's short time on the Iron Throne ended?

Frankly, I would find it very boring and cliché if Aegon would turn out the perfect king (because you can make one from scratch, that's why it happened to fail so often in history :rolleyes: ) with Dany being the mad king's daughter and of course going nuts because it's what her father did and so she must too.

So while I think his campaign will be successful at the beginning, and he will seem like a good enough king for a lot of people, I tend to believe that he will snap and commit some atrocities, maybe even showing signs of "madness", aka breaking under stress, as did Viserys. Because as you said in another thread, he did live his life in a small court with no true obstacles to work around, no people who would disagree with him or work toward their own plans, using him. One could say his life was a lot more sheltered than the life of many real-world rulers (or kings in Westeros' history), so no one can say how he will react when things aren't going well - even less if shit is starting to hit the fan. I would actually not be surprised if Dany's arc in the abomination turns out to be a mix of her own arc (not taking the Throne, because her people are in Essos and she has things to do and a kingdom to rule there already) and Aegon's arc with turning "mad" and burning KL.

So I can see him being responsible for the death of Tommen and/or Myrcella, and I also can see him making grave mistakes (even losing support he already has because of not listening to advices given).

I do see a lot of loyalists flocking to him in the beginning, but I also see some holding their breath and waiting for Dany, simply because of the Blackfyre legacy of the GC and his appearance out of nowhere. And of course a lot of his new supporters will come to him because they have their own agendas.

When Dany will finally come to Westeros, we will have a split within the loyalists, it would be interesting to speculated which loyal House would choose which Dragon? Will the Riverlands turn Black again? What will House Velaryon do? The Blackwoods?

I don't think we will see Aurane Waters on Aegon's side - if, it would only be because Martin did not get historical/military shit right (again), as the dromons would not be able to help at all against the Ironbound, their number is too small, Viking ships being too fast, small and mobile, and too many to make Aurane have an impact in any fighting with Euron.

22 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And once Gerris and Arch come back [...]

From their interaction with Barristan, I get the notion that Gerris and Arch might not agree on the interpretation of what happened with each other, they could end on different sides in the Dance. Doran's gambit may tear Dorne apart in the end.

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1 hour ago, Malgoth said:

As we know from the Cersei's prophecy : "I had a long week at work", which means that after the Tommen's death, Myrcella will be a queen for some time.

I'd not bet on that. For one, Myrcella already was a queen of sort, since Arianne Martell proclaimed her queen and her people did her homage as queen. It didn't last long, but it happened. That would be enough for the prophecy, I imagine, especially since we shouldn't take the stuff all that literally. We don't know whether Joff's shroud was really golden, and Tommen didn't have his own golden crown but is merely wearing Joff's old crown which doesn't properly fit his head.

Also, there is a chance that Myrcella is merely going to become a queen consort of sort - either Aegon or Euron could become her husband. Keep in mind we don't know yet whether Myrcella and Nym make it to KL or whether they are going to be captured by the Golden Company. If Aegon caught Myrcella he could marry her to strengthen his own claim and do away with her after he is safely on the throne.

And if Myrcella were in KL when Cersei decided to leave the city, she could take Myrcella with her to Euron to marry her to him. Although I find it more likely they marry each other.

1 hour ago, Malgoth said:

If Tommen dies, Margaery will become a widow for a third time and quit being a queen, so Tyrells would no longer have a motivation to support the Lanninsters-on-the-throne, and possible Tyrells's proposition to marry Myrcella to Willas will be rejected by Cersei outright.

Cersei would have no say in such a matter if Myrcella arrived at KL in the near future. Mace and Tarly will run Tommen's government, with Cersei being little more than a hostage/prisoner, possibly even a convict waiting for her execution. She has no means to regain power in KL without an army of her ... which she clearly lacks.

If Tommen were to die before Aegon knocks at the gates of the city, yes, then the Tyrells would have a legitimacy problem and Mace might seriously consider offering Margaery's hand to Aegon. But that is a very special set of circumstances.

1 hour ago, Malgoth said:

So, in this time period, where the Reach has a massive problems with the Euron's ironborn, it's possible for Mace to allied himself to Aegon's faction. That's where proposal to marry Margaery will came up, and I agree that it will be wisely rejected by JonCon or Aegon. Maybe Laswell Peake?

I'm inclined to believe that neither Mace nor Randyll Tarly will be keen to side with Aegon. They have all the power they could want as the people in charge of Tommen's government. They will seriously try to crush him and his movement not trying to defect to his side. Aegon would be a king ruling himself, Tommen is a young boy completely dependent on his council. The power Mace and Randyll have as the people running his government greatly exceeds the power they could have at Aegon's court - especially in light of the fact that Aegon already has a Hand in Jon Connington, loyal friends in the Golden Company, and, as we can assume, soon in the Dornishmen.

Instead, the support he will get from the Reach should come from other houses - the Merryweathers who may have been on team Aegon the entire time (Orton and his dad may have been with the Golden Company while in exile), Mathis Rowan should join Aegon at Storm's End, then there is Lord Titus Peake and his Lannister wife, etc.

An ideal scenario for Aegon would be if half or more of the men Mace is going to send against Aegon will refuse to fight or directly defect to Aegon once they see Mathis Rowan at his side and the Targaryen banner, etc. The Reach stood with the Mad King till the end, indicating that many lesser lords and landed knights and common men might still be dragon men there.

Even if that didn't happen during the battle near Storm's End, it is likely going to happen once Aegon attacks KL. The Kingslanders won't allow anyone to prevent a Targaryen from taking back what is his. Not to mention that Varys will ensure that they don't - but even without him, KL is a Targaryen city, always has been.

1 hour ago, Malgoth said:

By the way. Maybe Cersei will try relive her own the past at the expense of her daughter, by proposing Myrcella to Aegon? After all, Cersei was fixated on the Rhaegar her whole life.

That would be very weird. I don't think she is going to think he is the real deal, nor is she going to be as stupid as to believe Jon Connington is going to spare any of her children should they ever be in his power.

 

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4 hours ago, Morte said:

Frankly, I would find it very boring and cliché if Aegon would turn out the perfect king (because you can make one from scratch, that's why it happened to fail so often in history :rolleyes: ) with Dany being the mad king's daughter and of course going nuts because it's what her father did and so she must too.

Yeah, that idea is sort of the point of the thread.

Historically the Aegon plot was something a considerable portion of the fandom didn't like very much. It needed time to convince people that he came to stay and not to get an arrow in the eye at Storm's End because he forgot to put on a helmet or something like that.

But now it seems people seem to expect him to be a hero/great guy of sorts ever after he has taken the Iron Throne. And I've trouble seeing that. Although to be clear, it is all but impossible to imagine what's going to happen after he has taken KL - if we assume he is going to do that (which I think is very likely).

4 hours ago, Morte said:

So while I think his campaign will be successful at the beginning, and he will seem like a good enough king for a lot of people, I tend to believe that he will snap and commit some atrocities, maybe even showing signs of "madness", aka breaking under stress, as did Viserys. Because as you said in another thread, he did live his life in a small court with no true obstacles to work around, no people who would disagree with him or work toward their own plans, using him. One could say his life was a lot more sheltered than the life of many real-world rulers (or kings in Westeros' history), so no one can say how he will react when things aren't going well - even less if shit is starting to hit the fan. I would actually not be surprised if Dany's arc in the abomination turns out to be a mix of her own arc (not taking the Throne, because her people are in Essos and she has things to do and a kingdom to rule there already) and Aegon's arc with turning "mad" and burning KL.

Yes, that's the the other aspect of it. We don't know much about Aegon as a person. Tyrion's interactions with him were superficial and Jon Connington didn't spend much time with him in his two chapters, either. We see a little bit of him in 'The Lost Lord' but 'The Griffin Reborn' only has him show up at the very end. We really don't know anything about him as a person.

What we know is that he was cared for and protected and Tyrion's little lesson was the first time he considered that other people are using him for their own gain. Despite his preparation he froze when the stone men attacked and one assumes if/when he finds out about Jon's condition he will rightfully blame himself for all that, making him weary to make more mistakes.

His speech with the Golden Company went so well that he now knows he is charismatic enough to exert power over people, something that he already uses with Connington during the invasion. He listens to his advice, but he decides what he is going to do, not Connington. That trend should continue. If it turns out that Aegon quickly wins the throne and the love of the people because of series of smart decisions and bold moves on his part then this might give him the impression that his invincible/favored by the gods. Such hubris might also be part of the reason why he is going to decide to not wait for Daenerys.

What might drive him nuts not necessarily in an Aerys way but still down an ugly path is when he finds who he actually is and who his true father is. Because I think it is a given that this is a plot that's going to become relevant once Illyrio joins Aegon in KL as he promised. If he is his father he will attend Aegon's coronation, take a seat on his council, and bask in the light that comes with success, etc. How Aegon would cope with such a revelation - which is also something of a very ugly betrayal - is a rather interesting question. One of the first big threads I started back when ADwD came out was what Aegon would do if he ever found out he was not Rhaegar's son. And that's still a very interesting question. If that thing had severe repercussions at Aegon's court then it certainly might not exactly encourage him to trust people.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

So I can see him being responsible for the death of Tommen and/or Myrcella, and I also can see him making grave mistakes (even losing support he already has because of not listening to advices given).

Yeah, that is certainly possible. I expect something foolhardy from him after his coronation, something like a campaign to the Westerlands to sack Lannisport and wrest the Rock from the Lannisters to fill the treasury of the Crown to deal with the money problems. That could then allow Euron to steal the Iron Throne right under his nose while he is in the Riverlands or the West.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

I do see a lot of loyalists flocking to him in the beginning, but I also see some holding their breath and waiting for Dany, simply because of the Blackfyre legacy of the GC and his appearance out of nowhere. And of course a lot of his new supporters will come to him because they have their own agendas.

I think at first pretty much all Targaryen loyalists (and other people having issues with the Lannisters) will flock to his banner, possibly even the Vale (because Sansa needs to get rid of Cersei and her children to be herself again), especially once they learn about Dany's Hizdahr marriage and her alleged death/disappearance.

But once it becomes clear she is going to come I expect half of them or more to switch to her - alongside with the enemies Aegon himself made while he sat the throne (not such people who joined Euron/Cersei, but other people he antagonized.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

When Dany will finally come to Westeros, we will have a split within the loyalists, it would be interesting to speculated which loyal House would choose which Dragon? Will the Riverlands turn Black again? What will House Velaryon do? The Blackwoods?

In expect that effectively all Riverlords will join Aegon - some because they are Targaryen loyalists at heart (I expect that Harrenhal with Hasty there will join Aegon, especially once the High Septon declares him the rightful king, the Darrys because a Targaryen-Plumm is running things there as captain of the garrison, and the Mootons possibly as well - and there might be others). Those Riverlords hellbent on revenge should also declare for Aegon once their hostages are free because he can support them in their desire to destroy the Freys and Lannisters - something they might not be able to pull off all by themselves.

But how things go there when Dany arrives is very difficult to say.

4 hours ago, Morte said:

I don't think we will see Aurane Waters on Aegon's side - if, it would only be because Martin did not get historical/military shit right (again), as the dromons would not be able to help at all against the Ironbound, their number is too small, Viking ships being too fast, small and mobile, and too many to make Aurane have an impact in any fighting with Euron.

I actually expect that Waters ends up with Euron - as well Salladhor Saan and eventually all the pirates of the Stepstones and the fleets of Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh, too. They will forge a great alliance to stop Dany's armada on their way west (or rather: the portion that's coming from Slaver's Bay by way of Volantis).

4 hours ago, Morte said:

From their interaction with Barristan, I get the notion that Gerris and Arch might not agree on the interpretation of what happened with each other, they could end on different sides in the Dance. Doran's gambit may tear Dorne apart in the end.

It certainly could turn out that the Yronwoods and possibly other Dornish houses end up in team Dany, especially if Euron were to sack and burn Sunspear, killing Doran and Trystane in the process. If Arianne did not return to Dorne to rule as Princess of Dorne but remained stuck with Aegon in KL or wherever they will be then the Yronwoods and others might decide to join the real dragon(s) rather than oppose them when Dany arrives.

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