karaddin Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 I just read a post that had been shared by one of the boarders of the cops walking in and lighting up a medic station tonight. They're still "just" using rubber bullets and tear gas but it's only a matter of time before they're switching to regular guns and just committing massacres. They're completely off the leash and there are no institutional penalties so they'll only escalate. Any groups with authority that try pull them into line are just going to be ignored, like the mayor and chief of police of Minneapolis, or actively threatened by the cops like De Blasio. I'm not a fan of the latter, but he and his family have been threatened and one of the cop unions doxxed his daughter yesterday (below for those unaware) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IheartIheartTesla Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 1 hour ago, DMC said: Democratic candidates always lose ground when you switch from adults to registered voters to likely voters. My concern is the size of the difference between the latter two. It's something to keep an eye on in the coming months. Yes, I understand this is what happened historically, but I also thought we had discussed the fact that this effect seemed to be diminishing in recent years? There arent too many polls that have RV and LV together, so I hesitate to draw many conclusions. And we are a fair bit out so Democrat enthusiasm is also lower since not everyone has made their peace with Biden yet. That the trend exists appears to be robust, but the size of it is still TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Horse Named Stranger Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 10 minutes ago, karaddin said: Who do you expect to enforce the law if his actions overstep his legal authority with respect to attempting to interfere in the election? Because the police don't exactly seem too concerned about the legal limits of power right now. The Attorney General ofc. Ok, I stop, before Scot really breaks down crying (sorry, I could've picked any other boarder concerned about the rule of law, you were just the first that came to mind). Now, off to the dentist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Scot A Ellison Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 5 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said: The Attorney General ofc. Ok, I stop, before Scot really breaks down crying (sorry, I could've picked any other boarder concerned about the rule of law, you were just the first that came to mind). Now, off to the dentist. He used police to clear a church last night. He’s using the first Amendment as toilet paper. He’s making his push. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Relic Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Anyone who thinks that the elections won't be rigged this year still hasn't opened their eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 12 minutes ago, karaddin said: Who do you expect to enforce the law if his actions overstep his legal authority with respect to attempting to interfere in the election? Because the police don't exactly seem too concerned about the legal limits of power right now. It's all about justifications. There are no legal justifications for rigging the election, there are for pretty much everything else so far. Even if you have to squint a bit. The police are out of control right now, and some individual officers are committing crimes in dealing with the protesters. But so far there's no evidence of blatantly illegal orders being given or carried out. There's a world of difference between the morally bad and the actually illegal. Maybe we're already at the later point anyway, but I'm not going to say that we are until there's evidence of it. We should be outraged at the incredible latitude that law enforcement and the presidency does have, and that the spirit of democracy is being crushed. But its a stretch to say that the law of democracy is being broken yet. Four more years of Trump and I think we're there. Now? Show me the proof. Again, 2018 was free and fair. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kalbear Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 I've explained before how things can be done to make elections rigged in entirely legal ways. As an example, Florida could just not certify their results. Trump could back this with a state backed emergency. Florida could declare the election off, the courts could say you cant do that, but the confusion would be enough to make it weigh another way. Rigging doesnt have to mean literal election fraud, it doesnt even mean very big changes. And there are so many excuses now - covid, weather disasters, rioting, terrorism... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 48 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said: I also thought we had discussed the fact that this effect seemed to be diminishing in recent years? There arent too many polls that have RV and LV together, so I hesitate to draw many conclusions. Oh I'm not drawing any conclusions. Just saying it's concerning. As polls switch to LV, which should be happening soon (or would in any other cycle at least), we'll see if patterns emerge. 5 minutes ago, Kalbear said: As an example, Florida could just not certify their results. That's, like, the only example. We have indeed been over this before. DeSantis is the only plausible governor among anything close to a tipping point state engaging in what you're suggesting - Ducey is term limited, has his own career to worry about, and owes nothing to Trump. So sure, if the election comes down to Florida, which is quite possible, this may happen. Otherwise it's just a whole hell of a lot of rabble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fez Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, DMC said: Oh I'm not drawing any conclusions. Just saying it's concerning. As polls switch to LV, which should be happening soon (or would in any other cycle at least), we'll see if patterns emerge. That's, like, the only example. We have indeed been over this before. DeSantis is the only plausible governor among anything close to a tipping point state engaging in what you're suggesting - Ducey is term limited, has his own career to worry about, and owes nothing to Trump. So sure, if the election comes down to Florida, which is quite possible, this may happen. Otherwise it's just a whole hell of a lot of rabble. Is Ducey even involved? I thought in most states the State Secretary of State certified the results; which for Arizona would be Democrat Katie Hobbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 4 minutes ago, Fez said: Is Ducey even involved? I thought in most states the State Secretary of State certified the results; which for Arizona would be Democrat Katie Hobbs. Who knows in such a situation. I was accepting Kal's premise for the sake of argument. The important thing, as you mentioned, is there doesn't appear to be widespread (ETA: or at least significantly different) suppression not only in 2018, but also the primaries this cycle - including those that have taken place since covid. That's what I'm most worried about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karaddin Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Just another hypothetical where the election proceeds and Trump actually loses - Russian interference/hacking in an almost certainly blue state is exposed, Trump jumps on this to discredit the entire election result and refuses to leave office. Who makes him leave? If it results in a case that goes to SCOTUS it probably goes in his favor anyway, and he's backed by the 30% of the country with a lot of guns very eager to use them on many of their countrymen. That's just one option and it requires more of a legitimate election than I expect to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanteGabriel Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 21 hours ago, Simon Steele said: I was thinking about your other post about the disarming of police. What do you think they'd do with all that military grade hardware? Give it to the military,I know, but damn, think about all the money spent over the last 20 years to turn out police force into a militarized repressive force. If you're referring to the Hunter S. Thompson platform I referenced, I should add that Thompson had a two-step process for police violence. Cops should never be armed in public, he said, but anyone who hurt a cop would have hell rained upon them -- I believe he invoked mace bombs and wolverines as part of the response. So, not exactly a full demilitarization. I do think police militarization has gone too far, but I don't know how to stuff the horse back in the barn on that one. Obama tried to stop that with an executive order, but of course Trump cancelled his orders (another reason it's dumb to just give up on the Presidency and rely on a theoretical Democrats Senate to rein him in). I guess we need a series of national laws about policing standards, but there is likely not the political will to do that even among Democrats, and you can't wave a wand and change police culture. It's doesn't even seem like mayors and police chiefs can get their departments in line. The rot in the police unions is too great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, karaddin said: Russian interference/hacking in an almost certainly blue state is exposed, Trump jumps on this to discredit the entire election result and refuses to leave office. Who makes him leave? If it results in a case that goes to SCOTUS it probably goes in his favor anyway, and he's backed by the 30% of the country with a lot of guns very eager to use them on many of their countrymen. If he has clearly lost, what case is he bringing to the courts? "Voter fraud"? Nah, that ain't gonna fly with Roberts. Probably not with Gorsuch or Alito either. As for legitimate elections, people are working very hard right now to ensure that is possible. Frankly, Trump does not have the competence to successfully counteract that any more than they usually do. Again, with Florida as an exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Chatywin et al. Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 1 hour ago, Relic said: Anyone who thinks that the elections won't be rigged this year still hasn't opened their eyes. Rigged is a loaded way to describe things. But I have little hope that they can be run effectively, and urban areas will be hit hardest. It's why I still don't get all the poll watching. Who cares if Biden is polling well? No one knows how voting will even work yet. And it feels like no one will address this obvious problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arakan Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 Trump is the Definition of a weakass bully who wants to look strong. There is no denying that he secretly loves Hitler. His love for the authoritarian strongman shows it. But he is a clown. The true devil is the Republican Party. Callous and malicious. Trump is stupid, just a puppet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Werthead Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 22 hours ago, Simon Steele said: They're so much better spoken than our leader. I forgot what it's like to hear people who can string sentences together. I was thinking about your other post about the disarming of police. What do you think they'd do with all that military grade hardware? Give it to the military,I know, but damn, think about all the money spent over the last 20 years to turn out police force into a militarized repressive force. Isn't a key reason they have all this stuff in the first place is because the military arms contractors way over-produced due to the War on Terror and then flogged it cheap to the police forces? The military doesn't want this stuff, they have no need for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMC Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said: It's why I still don't get all the poll watching. Who cares if Biden is polling well? No one knows how voting will even work yet. Polls usually reflect the general electorate. Even in contests conducted since the pandemic, there's no reason to think there's any egregious error. We'll actually get a better idea of that tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 9 minutes ago, Werthead said: Isn't a key reason they have all this stuff in the first place is because the military arms contractors way over-produced due to the War on Terror and then flogged it cheap to the police forces? The military doesn't want this stuff, they have no need for it. Yep. If this were to ever happen, the most likely destination for the surplus (it's called surplus for a reason) is the Middle East or Southeast Asia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fragile Bird Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 In case you missed it, a priest and a seminarian were forcibly removed from the patio of St. John’s Episcopal church about an hour before the Trump display of power. Who needs an actual priest, especially a woman priest, around the president, right? Not when he has control of the Bible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maithanet Posted June 2, 2020 Share Posted June 2, 2020 15 minutes ago, DMC said: Polls usually reflect the general electorate. Even in contests conducted since the pandemic, there's no reason to think there's any egregious error. We'll actually get a better idea of that tonight. Tonight? Are there any races that we have actual robust polling, such that we would notice a difference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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