U.S. Politics: Speak, Shriek, or Squeak! Whatever Technique You Seek in Critique of the Isogeneic Freak.

[IheartIheartTesla]

2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

On better news, an actually good pollster (Monmouth) just came out with Biden leading Trump 52-41.  That's a great result, because Monmouth is a quality pollster and that isn't a ton of undecideds.   That's up 2 points from last month and up 8 points since March. 

Yes, I saw that, although the RV screen may be painting a slightly rosier picture than reality. Still, nothing to sneeze at.

In other ridiculously good news, Q-pac had a Texas poll come out (~1100 RV) that was Trump +1. There is definitely movement away from Trump in Texas, but it may end up being too little I fear. I'm also worried a bit that this may be inviting hubris from the Democrat's side. I suggest everyone treat this as peak Biden, and things will only get tighter from here on.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

31 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Trump has ordered (must be him, right?) the protestors by the White House pushed out even further away from Lafayette Park. They've been pushed back past St. John's Church now by armed officers carrying shields.

What's up, is there a dictator scheduled to come in? Is Trump afraid screaming protestors can be heard when he's on the phone? Is he planning on going to church on Sunday?

What a gutless coward. 

I mean, he does have quite the gut....

[Underfoot]

26 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Pop and soda people can get along. 

Those coke mother fuckers though. 

Having grown up in pop-speaking country but now living and working in soda country, idk... Those soda-speakers will take any opportunity to make fun of me! 

But pop-soda relations would have to be good because pop splits the soda country in half, so hopefully those differences could be worked through. 

[Maithanet]

10 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yes, I saw that, although the RV screen may be painting a slightly rosier picture than reality. Still, nothing to sneeze at.

In other ridiculously good news, Q-pac had a Texas poll come out (~1100 RV) that was Trump +1. There is definitely movement away from Trump in Texas, but it may end up being too little I fear. I'm also worried a bit that this may be inviting hubris from the Democrat's side. I suggest everyone treat this as peak Biden, and things will only get tighter from here on.

I think that the ghosts of 2016 + fear of Trump + possible electoral college shenangins + COVID uncertainty will prevent too much overconfidence.  Hell, betting markets are still more or less 50/50 and that's with Biden up between 5 and 11 points across all the best polls. 

But I agree that the most likely thing is Trump gets closer.  It is just super hard to blow anybody out in polarized America.  Trump is right now acting like the perfect foil for Biden's "return to normalcy" campaign message, but when Trump turns to more typical politics I'm sure he'll be able to drag Biden into the mud with him (at least to some extent).  Still, I'm glad that we're seeing polls head south for Trump; it's a lot harder to claw back from -8 nationally than -3.

On the RV/LV screen, yeah, it's a concern.  But if you compare Biden and Clinton, Biden's coalition is a bit older and a bit more college educated, while perhaps a bit weaker with Latinos and young people.  The former group is much stronger on a RV/LV screen than the latter group.  Therefore I have trouble believing that Biden could be doing worse on this question than Clinton.  IMO, the only possible explanation for Biden suffering vs Clinton is if the adjustments for the errors of 2016 is causing pollsters to assume that Trump's coalition will come out more than expected (working class white men are typically a low turnout group), and thus the very nature of the RV/LV screen has been adjusted to be more Republican friendly.  Not impossible I guess, but I haven't really seen anything about that from pollster discussions. 

[Guy Kilmore]

7 minutes ago, Underfoot said:

Having grown up in pop-speaking country but now living and working in soda country, idk... Those soda-speakers will take any opportunity to make fun of me! 

But pop-soda relations would have to be good because pop splits the soda country in half, so hopefully those differences could be worked through. 

I also have zig zagged between all of that.  I end up saying soda, pop, or sodapop.

[Fez]

25 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Yes, I saw that, although the RV screen may be painting a slightly rosier picture than reality. Still, nothing to sneeze at.

In other ridiculously good news, Q-pac had a Texas poll come out (~1100 RV) that was Trump +1. There is definitely movement away from Trump in Texas, but it may end up being too little I fear. I'm also worried a bit that this may be inviting hubris from the Democrat's side. I suggest everyone treat this as peak Biden, and things will only get tighter from here on.

A close Texas would be a very good thing even if Trump still takes it (the sight of Democrats taking it would be insane though; that would cause a full GOP meltdown). Democrats are down 19-12 in the Texas Senate and 83-67 in the Texas House, and both are up (they both have 2 year terms). I don't see the Senate happening, Democrats only gained 2 seats in 2018 and have been basically where they are now for a long time. 

The House might be doable though. They gained seats in both 2016 and 2018, netting 17 total over the two elections. If they got another 8 and took the chamber, it would have an enormous impact on both the state and the country; and not just because it'd give Democrats a say in redistricting. It's not worth sacrificing the White House of course, but a bit of Biden spending in the state could pay huge dividends. Plus it would likely force Trump to spend more there as well.

[Zorral]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

 That said religious differences have very rarely led to bloodshed here in the US.  Our civil conflicts have been over political, economic, and regional differences.

You left out racism, which is the number one civil conflict cause: racist hatred provoking civil uprisings against entire communities of African Americans, Native Americans, and never ending down on the southern borders. Not to mention the rebellions, actual or imagined by their terrified owners, of the enslaved, in one way or another.

You seem in your post to consider civil unrest unrest only if it involves something in which WHITE people of certain classes and background feel threatened -- which of course then is certainly the War of the Rebellion, which they, the white southern slaveholding class made. 

There have been quite a few conflicts over religion in this country too, quite a lot in fact.  Hatred for Catholics was virulent all over, and remained so throughout the 19th century into the 20th.  Not to mention burning out Jewish homes and hounding people who are Jewish -- whether they practiced religion or not.

Don't forget the Mormons, upon whom atrocities were committed until their got their own kingdom in Utah, from where they themselves could commit atrocities against Native Americans, settlers going west, etc.

Sometime the civil conflict was both racial and religious as in New Orleans when Italians were being lynched by white protestant New Orleanians.

One can go on and on and on listing these events, some them so great the entire nation was involved all at once, one way and another, and at the same time, i.e. during the war of the rebellion when the Irish and other whites chased through NYC looking for every person of color they could find to murder in the most gruesome ways possible.  That took about 3 + days to quell, while many who should have been control cowered inside, left town and otherwise did nothing.

[Fury Resurrected]

4 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I take your point.  That said religious differences have very rarely led to bloodshed here in the US.  Our civil conflicts have been over political, economic, and regional differences.

My grandmother who was stolen by the government and put into a catholic re education camp (along with most of her generation and the generation after) would strongly disagree. Christianity was a major cause of native genocide in America and I’m not about to let you nerds forget it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

21 minutes ago, Zorral said:

You left out racism, which is the number one civil conflict cause: racist hatred provoking civil uprisings against entire communities of African Americans, Native Americans, and never ending down on the southern borders. Not to mention the rebellions, actual or imagined by their terrified owners, of the enslaved, in one way or another.

You seem in your post to consider civil unrest unrest only if it involves something in which WHITE people of certain classes and background feel threatened -- which of course then is certainly the War of the Rebellion, which they, the white southern slaveholding class made. 

There have been quite a few conflicts over religion in this country too, quite a lot in fact.  Hatred for Catholics was virulent all over, and remained so throughout the 19th century into the 20th.  Not to mention burning out Jewish homes and hounding people who are Jewish -- whether they practiced religion or not.

Don't forget the Mormons, upon whom atrocities were committed until their got their own kingdom in Utah, from where they themselves could commit atrocities against Native Americans, settlers going west, etc.

Sometime the civil conflict was both racial and religious as in New Orleans when Italians were being lynched by white protestant New Orleanians.

One can go on and on and on listing these events, some them so great the entire nation was involved all at once, one way and another, and at the same time, i.e. during the war of the rebellion when the Irish and other whites chased through NYC looking for every person of color they could find to murder in the most gruesome ways possible.  That took about 3 + days to quell, while many who should have been control cowered inside, left town and otherwise did nothing.

Yes, racism should be on that list.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Just now, Fury Resurrected said:

My grandmother who was stolen by the government and put into a catholic re education camp (along with most of her generation and the generation after) would strongly disagree. Christianity was a major cause of native genocide in America and I’m not about to let you nerds forget it.

We shouldn’t forget.  You are absolutely correct.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Underfoot said:

Having grown up in pop-speaking country but now living and working in soda country, idk... Those soda-speakers will take any opportunity to make fun of me! 

But pop-soda relations would have to be good because pop splits the soda country in half, so hopefully those differences could be worked through. 

It's not universal, but pop people understand soda people and vice versa, and many say soda pop. These coke mother fuckers though.....Who says coke when they want to address all soft drinks?

If you ask me for coke, you better be asking for a white powdery substance, and even then I'll tell you to fuck off, though I have no problem if that's what you're into. But that shit nearly killed me, so I'm deuces on that. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, Guy Kilmore said:

I also have zig zagged between all of that.  I end up saying soda, pop, or sodapop.

I would call you a traitor to your state, but I forgive you. 

I bet you even said duck, duck goose once or twice!!!!!

[Centrist Simon Steele]

Minneapolis city council are talking about disbanding the police and replacing it with community outreach group. That'd be a huge victory. More places need to follow suit.

Just a quote from the article:
 

"Fletcher suggests that if the Council is successful in abolishing the police, a new unarmed “public safety” group will take its place. He says the council wants to “totally reimagine what public safety means… “We can invest in cultural competency and mental health training,” he adds."

[Jace, Extat]

Soda is classy. Pop is rude. Coke is an abomination.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

18 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

We shouldn’t forget.  You are absolutely correct.

Religion is probably the greatest motivation for murder across human history. 

The KKK happily killed a lot of us Jews here in the U.S. And hate crimes are on the rise again. 

[Zorral]

20 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Yes, racism should be on that list.

And religion?  

Why did you even post such a thing as religion and face didn't cause civil strife?  Other than thinking as a privileged white protestant guy?  If that's not why, it's baffling

[Kalbear]

Yeah, the notion that the US' history for race and religion is somehow LESS causing strife is ignorant at best and absurdly revisionist borderline on Holocaust denial levels of obscurement at worst. If you ever wanted an example of history being written by the victors (and why thinking history will judge certain people badly is wrong), there ya go. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

3 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Yeah, the notion that the US' history for race and religion is somehow LESS causing strife is ignorant at best and absurdly revisionist borderline on Holocaust denial levels of obscurement at worst. If you ever wanted an example of history being written by the victors (and why thinking history will judge certain people badly is wrong), there ya go. 

 

[Kalbear]

 

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

 

Which is ironic, as Germany very specifically requires people to learn about this history and their part, refuses to whitewash a single bit of it, and holocaust denial is an actual crime. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Still trying to figure out if the three have been arrested, but good, fuck those murderers.