NFL 2020 Offseason: Are we even doing this any more?

[Rhom]

5 hours ago, dbunting said:

Jags cut Fournette today. #4 overall and three years later he is a FA and coming off probably his best season. 

More evidence that you don't take a RB that high.

Jags said they've been trying to shop him since March and got zero offers for him.  No seconds.  No thirds.  No fourths. Nothing.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

20 minutes ago, Rhom said:

More evidence that you don't take a RB that high.

Jags said they've been trying to shop him since March and got zero offers for him.  No seconds.  No thirds.  No fourths. Nothing.

They couldn't even get a 6th. I was listening to a breakdown of his last season and they made it seem like despite the numbers he actually had an inefficient season. The conventional stats don't give that off, so they must be using some other metrics (for instance, they said he was the second worst receiving back when catching the ball or behind the line of scrimmage. 

Regarding your first point, I think you can justify in rare situations like the Cowboys and Zeke. Their team was perfectly built to bring in an explosive elite back. But otherwise yeah, I'd look for guys with first round grades, but fall to the third or fourth round due to "character issues." 

[Kalbear]

This is a hell of an accurate and sad tweet.

 

And no, you don't justify the high RB. Remember this in a few years when Barkley gets traded for like a 4th or something. 

[Nictarion]

What about a rare talent like McCaffrey? I think a duel threat like that is worth a top 10 pick. 

[Kalbear]

17 minutes ago, Nictarion said:

What about a rare talent like McCaffrey? I think a duel threat like that is worth a top 10 pick. 

I doubt it. The problem isn't the talent, it's the duration. For a 1st round pick you're hoping for one of two things - someone who is going to be cheap and allow you to spend in other places and go after titles, or someone who you can build around for a while. Even if you get someone like McCaffery you're not going to be able to 'save' money with him because RBs are so cheap to get for the most part. And chances are exceedingly good that with a RB you're better off getting another one in 2-3 years, because by then they'll be too injured to play at a top level. 

If you could make a case that someone like McCaffery could be the kind of person that would unlock your entire offense - think of someone like Gronk -  then maybe? But so far that RB hasn't existed for a long time in this league.

[briantw]

3 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'd look for guys with first round grades, but fall to the third or fourth round due to "character issues." 

Didn't work so well with Guice...

 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

13 minutes ago, briantw said:

Didn't work so well with Guice...

 

It's still less of a gamble than using a top 5 pick on a position that washes out the quickest and doesn't always translate from college to the pros. And besides, I've always been a fan of trading back multiple times with a high pick unless there's someone there you truly want or you have to fill a position of need and there's someone there who merits that draft slot. Getting a lot of picks in rounds 2 through 4 can provide a lot more value than a top 10 pick if there's no potential franchise QB there (assuming you need one).

[dbunting]

Personally I don't see a problem with drafting almost any position where ever you want. It's not where you pick them it's who you pick that matters. Tons of QB's, OL and WR's go high in 1st round, bust, and don't get mentioned like RB's do.

The durability is of course a factor but would you rather have a top 3 RB in his prime, say 5 elite years or an average RB who last 10 years? I'll take the elite guy because I can find avg backs anywhere. 

I think it's all in picking the right player and having the system that makes sense for the pick.

[Maithanet]

If you want an elite rb, you have to find him in the draft, because by the time they hit free agency, they won't be elite anymore.  That doesn't mean you have to draft him in the first round, although just like every other position you have to get lucky outside the first. 

But for the most part I agree with dbunting that getting "hits" on your first round draft picks is a lot more important than where those hits happen.  If a team is getting above average starters or better yet pro bowlers at OG, RB, ILB and SS, that is still a good use of first round picks, even if those positions aren't valued as highly on the market at WR, OT, DE or CB.  QB is a whole different ballpark. 

Now, the potential moneyball savings of getting a pro bowler with your first round pick who plays OG is less than the savings you'd get if you find a OT, so that's a reasonable tiebreaker, but IMO teams often put too much value in the "high value" positions in the draft. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

21 minutes ago, dbunting said:

The durability is of course a factor but would you rather have a top 3 RB in his prime, say 5 elite years or an average RB who last 10 years? I'll take the elite guy because I can find avg backs anywhere. 

It's a bit cliche, but I regularly hear GM types say you want your first round pick to be a starter through their second contract. RBs shelf life makes that less likely, and the position is becoming more interchangeable so most backs aren't even carry a huge load, and when they do they burn out fast. Just look at Gurley. He was discarded two years after a MVP like season, and he wasn't even ran into the ground.  

[Wilbur]

22 hours ago, dbunting said:

Jags cut Fournette today. #4 overall and three years later he is a FA and coming off probably his best season. 

The Jaguars organization is such a mismanaged mess.  Their owner is clueless and trying to move the team to London, they have either drafted poorly, or, when they have drafted well, they have angered the draft picks so much they do anything to leave (Jalen Ramsey, anyone?).

Last year the players union warned its members about the Jaguars, noting that almost 30% of all grievances in the previous two years had been filed against Jacksonville.  Their players fight each other in the locker rooms, and their players actively tell the media that they want to leave Jacksonville while still under contract.

When players do escape, some of them turn out to be decent players and good teammates on well-managed teams - Tyson Alualu in Pittsburgh, Jalen Ramsey in LA, Blaine Gabbert at various.

LF may or may not be a good person or a good football player, but it takes two to tango, and Jacksonville is one of those NFL teams that is run by feckless morons or wealthy legatees, ala Cincinnati, Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago etc.  

[Jace, Extat]

I typically find any strategy that willfully ignores potential success out of fear to be poorly motivated. If I can take Adrian Peterson at six and no other player on the board pops at a position I need, i do it. That goes for Elliot and McCaffery. These are players that the defense must account for on every play. Exactly like a top WR or TE. To the critique about draft value vs length of contract, I call bullshit. Half of first round picks don't get a second deal with their drafting team. Most of the teams that overpay a former 1st round pick in FA end up regretting it. Who the fuck cares about 7 years down the line as long as you aren't actively sabotaging it? The goal is to win a super bowl as soon as you can, that means taking the best player available at the most desperate position of need on your team. Stop over thinking it.

[briantw]

1 hour ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I typically find any strategy that willfully ignores potential success out of fear to be poorly motivated. If I can take Adrian Peterson at six and no other player on the board pops at a position I need, i do it. That goes for Elliot and McCaffery. These are players that the defense must account for on every play. Exactly like a top WR or TE. To the critique about draft value vs length of contract, I call bullshit. Half of first round picks don't get a second deal with their drafting team. Most of the teams that overpay a former 1st round pick in FA end up regretting it. Who the fuck cares about 7 years down the line as long as you aren't actively sabotaging it? The goal is to win a super bowl as soon as you can, that means taking the best player available at the most desperate position of need on your team. Stop over thinking it.

I definitely think team situation factors in.  The Cowboys could afford to draft Zeke high because they already had a great like and talent at the other skill positions.  The Giants taking Barkley in the first year of a rebuild just seemed like the height of stupidity.  By the time their team is ready to compete, Barkley will be halfway through his career, if not further. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

@Jace, Basilissa, it's more nuanced than that though. Peterson could be there at six, and he might be the best player left, but if your team sucks, you don't take him. You trade down to build out your roster. @briantw is right to contrast Zeke and Barkley. The Giants roster was so bad when they had that pick, and even if I think Barkley is the best RB prospect since Peterson, you can't justify taking him there when you have so many needs and are so far away from fielding a competitive team. 

[Jace, Extat]

2 hours ago, briantw said:

I definitely think team situation factors in.  The Cowboys could afford to draft Zeke high because they already had a great like and talent at the other skill positions.  The Giants taking Barkley in the first year of a rebuild just seemed like the height of stupidity.  By the time their team is ready to compete, Barkley will be halfway through his career, if not further. 

I agree with this opinion, however it's a far cry from the rabid 'NEVER TAKE A RB IN ROUND 1' takes that most people throw around. If Barkley had fallen to the Bucs Jameis Winston might still have a starting job.

 

[Kalbear]

8 hours ago, dbunting said:

Personally I don't see a problem with drafting almost any position where ever you want. It's not where you pick them it's who you pick that matters. Tons of QB's, OL and WR's go high in 1st round, bust, and don't get mentioned like RB's do.

It matters because if you land a QB you save yourself about $25m-$30m per year in cap space. If you land a RB you save maybe $5m. 

 

[dbunting]

14 hours ago, Kalibear said:

It matters because if you land a QB you save yourself about $25m-$30m per year in cap space. If you land a RB you save maybe $5m. 

 

But if you keep trying to land that QB and keep missing you are doing your team a disservice. Yeah you didn't spend as much but your team sucks and fans aren't spending cash for tickets and merchandise so the $ saved in salary cap but what is lost in merchandising, ticket sales and in game spending on food drinks etc.?

[briantw]

1 hour ago, dbunting said:

But if you keep trying to land that QB and keep missing you are doing your team a disservice. Yeah you didn't spend as much but your team sucks and fans aren't spending cash for tickets and merchandise so the $ saved in salary cap but what is lost in merchandising, ticket sales and in game spending on food drinks etc.?

It's not just QB, though.  Several positions have players making 15-25 million per year if they are stars such as DB, DE, and WR.  The only RB making money in that range got paid coming off the greatest RB season of all time and is one of two bright spots on his entire roster (along with DJ Moore, who still has two to three years left on his rookie deal and thus won't be due for a payday for a while). 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

I just can't stop laughing at Kirk:

Quote

"I want to respect what other people's concerns are. For me personally, just talking no one else can get the virus, what is your concern if you could get it, I would say I'm gonna go about my daily life. If I get it, I'm gonna ride it out. I'm gonna let nature do its course. Survival-of-the-fittest kind of approach. And just say, if it knocks me out, it knocks me out. I'm going to be OK. You know, even if I die. If I die, I die. I kind of have peace about that."

 

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, briantw said:

It's not just QB, though.  Several positions have players making 15-25 million per year if they are stars such as DB, DE, and WR.  The only RB making money in that range got paid coming off the greatest RB season of all time and is one of two bright spots on his entire roster (along with DJ Moore, who still has two to three years left on his rookie deal and thus won't be due for a payday for a while). 

Exactly.  You don't have to do it for a QB - you can do it for a DB, a OT, a DE, and sometimes a WR. But you don't do it for RB in the same way you don't do it for ILB, punters or centers - because you simply don't save the money. And if you build your roster around getting those great players at not super important positions, you'll still not be in a position to win when you  eventually get that great player at the key positions - because you won't have saved enough money.