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DanteGabriel

NFL 2020 Offseason: Are we even doing this any more?

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5 minutes ago, briantw said:

I think everyone is expecting the entire Titans offense to regress. That's all I've heard all off-season from all the podcasts I listen to relating to fantasy football. They had entirely unsustainable red zone efficiency last year.  It's unlikely that Henry scores 18 touchdowns again either. 

I've read so many articles about how Tannehill won't regress that I vomit every time I see a T. I don't engage with fantasy material, though, so eh.

I probably read fifteen articles about how Derek Henry's contract was a disaster decision, but these same publications act like paying Ryan Tannehill 30 million a year is to be expected.

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8 minutes ago, briantw said:

I think everyone is expecting the entire Titans offense to regress. That's all I've heard all off-season from all the podcasts I listen to relating to fantasy football. They had entirely unsustainable red zone efficiency last year.  It's unlikely that Henry scores 18 touchdowns again either. 

I'm also just going what I heard from a few podcasts, but Henry's midseason splits sounded shocking. Over the last two seasons, through nine games he's very average, but in the second half of the season and in the playoffs he goes nuts. It would be surprising to see him replicate that for a third straight year.

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2 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Assuming that there are a playoffs this year, which I also don't expect.  So it's doubly unlikely that Tennessee makes it.  

No playoffs (which I agree is very possible) = fair elections? :lmao:

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7 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

I've read so many articles about how Tannehill won't regress that I vomit every time I see a T. I don't engage with fantasy material, though, so eh.

I probably read fifteen articles about how Derek Henry's contract was a disaster decision, but these same publications act like paying Ryan Tannehill 30 million a year is to be expected.

Anyone who thinks that team as a whole won't regress is delusional.  I don't recall the exact stat but with Tanny at QB they had something like 26 red zone trips and scored a touchdown on all but one of them, or something crazy like that.

That ain't happening again.  The great thing about some of the fantasy content I consume is that it tends to look at things with a lot less bias because the goal is simply to best predict what will happen, and when you have historical efficiency one year, you basically always come back down to earth the following year.  This is true for individual players as well as teams, as was demonstrated by Mahomes' season last year.  A historical year followed by a merely good to great one, statistically speaking.

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31 minutes ago, briantw said:

Anyone who thinks that team as a whole won't regress is delusional.  I don't recall the exact stat but with Tanny at QB they had something like 26 red zone trips and scored a touchdown on all but one of them, or something crazy like that.

That ain't happening again.  The great thing about some of the fantasy content I consume is that it tends to look at things with a lot less bias because the goal is simply to best predict what will happen, and when you have historical efficiency one year, you basically always come back down to earth the following year.  This is true for individual players as well as teams, as was demonstrated by Mahomes' season last year.  A historical year followed by a merely good to great one, statistically speaking.

Yeah the Titans might win the South because I hope the Colts are terrible and Billy O'Brian resents his QB for not being white and terrible, but they won't be a ten win team. I'd bet your life on it.

As to the second part, that's true. Legendary individual seasons are tough to replicate. What I took issue with in this regard was the idea that Lamarr Jackson suddenly can't throw the ball. Regression happens, and the Ravens were also freakishly efficient in the Red Zone last year, but I will not hear these takes against him in silence. Not after Mark Sanchez was given a fifty-million dollar contract for being on a team with Shonn Green, Ladanian Tomlinson, and Darrell Revis and people said (unironically) that he 'led' them to Championship games. Uh-uh. Not after 6 straight years of "is this the year Ryan Tannehill puts it all together?" No, not happening.

Edited by Jace, Basilissa

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On 7/25/2020 at 5:49 PM, Rhom said:

Wow... there was speculation that SF was interested, but I’m glad they didn’t go to match that.  Does Seattle really think they are a safety away from truly competing for a championship?

Seeing reports that the Niners and Cowboys were the other two teams in on Adams.  I'm hoping the Niners offer did not approach what Seattle gave up.

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14 minutes ago, DMC said:

Seeing reports that the Niners and Cowboys were the other two teams in on Adams.  I'm hoping the Niners offer did not approach what Seattle gave up.

I continue to be amazed that teams are willing to make trades like this at all.  Anytime you have a first contract, pro bowl player, you expect them to get a market setting contract on their next deal.  Those kind of top dollar deals fail as often as they don't (guys get injured, regress, etc), but that's kind of the nature of the NFL that some contracts don't work out.  There is definitely a value in creating a locker room culture that draft picks who perform get paid, and the fans like it too.

Usually the way that you counterbalance these big money contracts (which often fail) is by having productive guys on cheap rookie contracts as well.  When you trade away your draft picks you can't do that.  So I think this is something teams should always avoid.

However, the WORST deals are the ones like Adams and Tunsil where you trade away a bounty of picks for a guy without first agreeing to a contract extension.  This gives away all leverage that the team has, and thus teams need to not just pay top dollar, but more than top dollar in order to retain a their new player.  Because if they don't, they'll get excoriated (rightfully) for stupidly trading away first round picks for a one or two year rental.  Tunsil reset the OT market, and he's barely even above average at LT.  

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I am happy as hell that Dallas didn't get into that deal. They have enough of their own players to pay without giving up high future picks with low salaries to take on a guy who will demand top dollars. 

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So I did not know Dana Stubblefield raped a disabled woman he ostensibly wanted to hire as a babysitter.  Damn.  Got 15 years, I hope he dies in prison.

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Donta Hightower and Marcus Cannon, among other Patriots, have opted out of the 2020 season. Can't say I blame them.

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Yeah, I'd expect more of the same. These conditions are not sustainable, and if you're already paid, why bother with it?

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3 hours ago, DanteGabriel said:

Donta Hightower and Marcus Cannon, among other Patriots, have opted out of the 2020 season. Can't say I blame them.

Umm...Trevor Lawrence?

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No, Bill is 37 steps ahead of you. Five first round picks for Trevor once operation tank is complete. Cam rests for the year, to be unleashed in 2021. No one will ever see it coming!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Belichick is a smart guy; he'd have to be to a football genius. He's also 68 and has nothing to prove to anyone (though I'm sure he'd like to win a SB without Brady). If he is behind this, it could be as simple as the fact that he sees playing a season as dangerous and is doing his best to sabotage it from happening.

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7 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Yeah, I'd expect more of the same. These conditions are not sustainable, and if you're already paid, why bother with it?

They have extremely short careers and tend to blow their money so...better get those checks while you can.

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8 minutes ago, dbunting said:

They have extremely short careers and tend to blow their money so...better get those checks while you can.

Did you miss the already paid part?

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On 7/28/2020 at 6:18 PM, Tywin et al. said:

Did you miss the already paid part?

No, did you miss the, tend to blow their money part? How's Minnesota btw? I'm planning a road trip and will be driving through northern part in a few weeks.

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4 minutes ago, dbunting said:

No, did you miss the, tend to blow their money part? 

Hey man, Gronk still has like all his money, which is shocking. 

Quote

How's Minnesota btw? I'm planning a road trip and will be driving through northern part in a few weeks.

High 70's to low 90's everyday. Sometimes hotter.

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On 7/28/2020 at 12:11 PM, Fez said:

Belichick is a smart guy; he'd have to be to a football genius. He's also 68 and has nothing to prove to anyone (though I'm sure he'd like to win a SB without Brady). If he is behind this, it could be as simple as the fact that he sees playing a season as dangerous and is doing his best to sabotage it from happening.

I can see this, a Head Coach can't just opt to sit out a season if he has enough players to field a team.  But if he can get enough players to opt out on their own, he can be the coach who understands their fears and then gets to sit out the season and avoid the Covid plague without looking bad.

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