If Ned had Sent Loras instead of Beric Dondarrion...

[frenin]

35 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

No reason for what? Raiding?

No, staying at the Riverlands after the raiding.

 

35 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

It was to entice Ned to attack so he could have leverage in regards to Tyrions arrest 

No, It wasn't. It was to goad the Riverlands into breaking the King's Peace. Ned was never the objective. 

Quote

“If your fields and holdfasts are safe from harm,” Lord Petyr was saying, “what then do you ask of the throne?” “The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.” Thank the gods for old Lord Hoster, then. Tywin Lannister was as much fox as lion. If indeed he’d sent Ser Gregor to burn and pillage—and Ned did not doubt that he had—he’d taken care to see that he rode under cover of night, without banners, in the guise of a common brigand. Should Riverrun strike back, Cersei and her father would insist that it had been the Tullys who broke the king’s peace, not the Lannisters. The gods only knew what Robert would believe.

Tywin wanted to invade the Riverlands from the beginning but he was not willing to become a traitor and a very easy picking for Ned by doing so, so his plan was simply provoke Riverrun so they broke the King's Peace.

 

 

The Ned's idea simply doesn't make sense. Let's suppose Ned is captured, that's treason,  Ned and Tyrion are exchanged, Robert is livid, Ned returns to KL, Robert or Ned or both declare Tywin a traitor and Tywin is dead. I have never had Tywin in a high regard but the man is simply not that idiot. And the only reason to believe this is Harwin's unreliable assumption...

[Hugorfonics]

34 minutes ago, frenin said:

 his plan was simply provoke Riverrun so they broke the King's Peace.

How would Riverrun be breaking the kings peace by killing people on her own land? 

Riverrun was not striking back at the west, especially because the Lords son in law was HandoKing. Also because it never did.

38 minutes ago, frenin said:

. Let's suppose Ned is captured, that's treason,  

Ok, Tyrions imprisonment (and falsely accused of Jons murder, by the murderer) was grossly illegal too.

42 minutes ago, frenin said:

  Ned and Tyrion are exchanged, Robert is livid, 

No, Robert would be happy.

Quote

"Abductions on the kingsroad and drunken slaughter in my streets," the king said. "I will not have it, Ned."

"Catelyn had good reason for taking the Imp—"

"I said, I will not have it! To hell with her reasons.

Robert, like all kings, wants a peaceful and stable realm

49 minutes ago, frenin said:

I have never had Tywin in a high regard but the man is simply not that idiot. 

Hes bold. He thinks hes a lion. Every day Tyrions locked up in the Vale is another slight against Tywin. Neds abduction was his ticket.

52 minutes ago, frenin said:

. And the only reason to believe this is Harwin's unreliable assumption...

Its not unreliable because thats exactly what would have happened. 

Ned insists on striking blows himself, so Tywin sent his most recognizable and infamous general to set a simple trap for a simple Stark. 

The reason Tywin didnt fear Loras leading the party was because Neds the only person who he would ever assign. 

[frenin]

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

How would Riverrun be breaking the kings peace by killing people on her own land? 

Because Riverrun wanted to strike at the Westerlands.

 

“The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” [...] “Do we have your leave to take our vengeance against Ser Gregor, then?” Marq Piper asked the throne. “Vengeance?” Ned said. “I thought we were speaking of justice. Burning Clegane’s fields and slaughtering his people will not restore the king’s peace, only your injured pride.”

 

Had they been as foolish to go after Gregor without going to KL first, they'd be the ones branded as traitors and Tywin would have an excellent alibi to invade and slaughter them.

 

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Riverrun was not striking back at the west, especially because the Lords son in law was HandoKing. Also because it never did.

Because Hoster saw through Tywin's game and commanded his lords to go to KL first, after Ned had sentenced Gregor, the Riverlords had no reason to strike.

 

“The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.”

 

 

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ok, Tyrions imprisonment (and falsely accused of Jons murder, by the murderer) was grossly illegal too.

There is a glaring difference between illegal and treason. 

 

 

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

No, Robert would be happy.

How can he be happy?? His Hand of the King has been kidnapped and held hostage. He commanded Tyrion's release, not Ned's kidnapping.

 

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robert, like all kings, wants a peaceful and stable realm

Which he simply doesn't get if he lets his lords getting away with murder with treasonous and  outrageous acts lmao.

There is no better way to make sure that there is war that condoning Tywin's stunt, which btw would never happen because that's a huge slap in Robert's pride.

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Hes bold. He thinks hes a lion. Every day Tyrions locked up in the Vale is another slight against Tywin. Neds abduction was his ticket.

He's not that bold or else he would've invaded the Riverlands right away, there is a difference between bold and suicidal. 

You're thinking about show Tywin here.

 

20 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

Its not unreliable because thats exactly what would have happened. 

Ned insists on striking blows himself, so Tywin sent his most recognizable and infamous general to set a simple trap for a simple Stark. 

The reason Tywin didnt fear Loras leading the party was because Neds the only person who he would ever assign. 

No, it isn't.  Robert and not Ned would usually be the one ruling over the incident and Robert simply would not let Ned go to face Gregor, for starters. Tywin's so called plan is so fill with holes that it seems more a hope than a plan. And what's more important, this plan is only assumed by Harwin, we have never had an indication that that was always the plan. So yes, Harwin is being unreliable

 

[sweetsunray]

8 hours ago, Hugorfonics said:

But Gregor was on the move.

I don't see how Tywin could relay info to the Mountain then, like Beric was out of Neds hands as well

The Mountain attacked Sherrer north of the Red Fork. The Mummer's Ford (where the Mountain ambushed Beric) is assumed to be near, and suspected to be in the domain of Pinkmaiden's Castle, which is close to the Golden Tooth. That's a measly distance for a courier with a message on horseback.

[Hugorfonics]

21 hours ago, frenin said:

Because Riverrun wanted to strike at the Westerlands.

 

“The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” [...] “Do we have your leave to take our vengeance against Ser Gregor, then?” Marq Piper asked the throne. “Vengeance?” Ned said. “I thought we were speaking of justice. Burning Clegane’s fields and slaughtering his people will not restore the king’s peace, only your injured pride.”

 

Had they been as foolish to go after Gregor without going to KL first, they'd be the ones branded as traitors and Tywin would have an excellent alibi to invade and slaughter them.

 

Because Hoster saw through Tywin's game and commanded his lords to go to KL first, after Ned had sentenced Gregor, the Riverlords had no reason to strike.

 

“The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.”

If the Riverlords attacked the west then itd be an issue, but what actually happened, which was obvious to everyone, was that Ned ordered Gregor to be arrestred, which means it has to be him to swing the sword.

What do you think Tywin thought Ned would do?

21 hours ago, frenin said:

There is a glaring difference between illegal and treason. 

Robert would take Lannisters side over Ned over everything, hes sleeping with them.

21 hours ago, frenin said:

Tywin's so called plan is so fill with holes that it seems more a hope than a plan.

There's a few holes. Like Ramsay conquering Winterfell or Petyr creating the war. No plans are certain.

15 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

The Mountain attacked Sherrer north of the Red Fork. The Mummer's Ford (where the Mountain ambushed Beric) is assumed to be near, and suspected to be in the domain of Pinkmaiden's Castle, which is close to the Golden Tooth. That's a measly distance for a courier with a message on horseback.

Gregor was laying an ambush and was thusly hiding untill he spotted the army. It is kinda infeasible for him to have contact with the outside world

[frenin]

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

If the Riverlords attacked the west then itd be an issue, but what actually happened, which was obvious to everyone, was that Ned ordered Gregor to be arrestred, which means it has to be him to swing the sword.

??? It wasn't obvious to everyone.

For starters the one who should be usually ruling over the issue would be Robert, then it makes little sense that the Ned would ordered Gregor to be killed, if Ned had ordered Gregor just to be arrested there would not be an issue, the only reason why Ned wants to go himsef after Gregor is because he is going to be killed.

 

Every eye in the hall was fixed on him, waiting. Slowly, Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness. “The First Men believed that the judge who called for death should wield the sword, and in the north we hold to that still. I mislike sending another to do my killing … yet it seems I have no choice.” He gestured at his broken leg.

And it simply wasn't an obvious conclussion that Ned would sentence Gregor to death because "a very large man" raided villages.  The Riverlords were about to attack, it was only Hoster who stopped them and told them to go to King's Landing first.

 

 

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Robert would take Lannisters side over Ned over everything, hes sleeping with them.

Usually, Lannisters commiting treason and spitting at his face however is another matter. 

 

 

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

If the Riverlords attacked the west then itd be an issue, but what actually happened, which was obvious to everyone, was that Ned ordered Gregor to be arrestred, which means it has to be him to swing the sword.

A few holes?? It's like saying Gregor is a little too big, the plan is suicidal at worst, borderline moronic at best. And all that for Tyrion...

He might've been more lucky if he sent a raven to Robert and asked him if he could kidnapp Ned.

29 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Gregor was laying an ambush and was thusly hiding untill he spotted the army. It is kinda infeasible for him to have contact with the outside world

Why??

Regardless i doubt he was laying an ambush then, he would be near the Golden tooth until the news of Robert's death and Ned's fall arrived.

 

[Hugorfonics]

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

??? It wasn't obvious to everyone.

For starters the one who should be usually ruling over the issue would be Robert, then it makes little sense that the Ned would ordered Gregor to be killed, if Ned had ordered Gregor just to be arrested there would not be an issue, the only reason why Ned wants to go himsef after Gregor is because he is going to be killed.

 

Every eye in the hall was fixed on him, waiting. Slowly, Ned struggled to his feet, pushing himself up from the throne with the strength of his arms, his shattered leg screaming inside its cast. He did his best to ignore the pain; it was no moment to let them see his weakness. “The First Men believed that the judge who called for death should wield the sword, and in the north we hold to that still. I mislike sending another to do my killing … yet it seems I have no choice.” He gestured at his broken leg.

And it simply wasn't an obvious conclussion that Ned would sentence Gregor to death because "a very large man" raided villages.  The Riverlords were about to attack, it was only Hoster who stopped them and told them to go to King's Landing first.

The riverlords, like Tywin knew they had an ally in KL. Thats obvious

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

Usually, Lannisters commiting treason and spitting at his face however is another matter. 

Spitting in Neds face. Not Roberts. Robert didnt care about other people

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

A few holes?? It's like saying Gregor is a little too big, the plan is suicidal at worst, borderline moronic at best. And all that for Tyrion...

Not for the imp, for their last name. The honor of their house. The same pissing contest that all Sunset lords are famous for

11 minutes ago, frenin said:

Why??

Ambushes only work if youre hidden, not outside flagging down the mailman

 

[frenin]

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

The riverlords, like Tywin knew they had an ally in KL. Thats obvious

Huh, Robert??

Regardless, the Riverlords did not considered about going to King's Landing, Hoster was the one commanding them that, their intention was to strike back at once. The Riverlords were to King's Landing, so the Throne  allowed them to invade the Westerlands, not to get Gregor arrested.

 

If your fields and holdfasts are safe from harm,” Lord Petyr was saying, “what then do you ask of the throne?” “The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.”

 

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Spitting in Neds face. Not Roberts. Robert didnt care about other people

No, spitting in Robert's face, Tywin would be arresting the Hand of the King who was riding under the King's own banner.

And Robert does care about Ned but regardless, he doesn't even need to care about Ned to be mad at that.

 

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

The riverlords, like Tywin knew they had an ally in KL. Thats obvious

You're thinking again about show Tywin. Tywin is not going to risk his neck for Tyrion.  If Tywin was so bold, he would not have waited for King's Landing to be completely under Lannister control before invading the Riverlands, he would act as show Tywin did and invade right away.

 

 

1 hour ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ambushes only work if youre hidden, not outside flagging down the mailman

You don't need to be hidden all the time, just that the ambushed don't know where you are, and there is little reason to  believe that Tywin didn't know where Gregor was, he rejoined Tywin's march right away.

[Hugorfonics]

9 minutes ago, frenin said:

Huh, Robert??

Ned

10 minutes ago, frenin said:

Regardless, the Riverlords did not considered about going to King's Landing, Hoster was the one commanding them that, their intention was to strike back at once. The Riverlords were to King's Landing, so the Throne  allowed them to invade the Westerlands, not to get Gregor arrested.

 

If your fields and holdfasts are safe from harm,” Lord Petyr was saying, “what then do you ask of the throne?” “The lords of the Trident keep the king’s peace,” Ser Raymun Darry said. “The Lannisters have broken it. We ask leave to answer them, steel for steel. We ask justice for the smallfolk of Sherrer and Wendish Town and the Mummer’s Ford.” “Edmure agrees, we must pay Gregor Clegane back his bloody coin,” Ser Marq declared, “but old Lord Hoster commanded us to come here and beg the king’s leave before we strike.”

But Neds movements would be obvious, if he was healthy

12 minutes ago, frenin said:

No, spitting in Robert's face, Tywin would be arresting the Hand of the King who was riding under the King's own banner.

And Robert does care about Ned but regardless, he doesn't even need to care about Ned to be mad at that.

I dont think he cares

13 minutes ago, frenin said:

You're thinking again about show Tywin. Tywin is not going to risk his neck for Tyrion. 

I just said it wasnt about Tyrion

[frenin]

15 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

Ned

But Robert would be the one ruling over the incident, not Ned. Robert just happened to be hunting.

 

16 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

But Neds movements would be obvious, if he was healthy

Hmmm no. You're talking in hindsight, saying that Ned would obviously sentenced Gregor to death is a huge stretch. It requires mind reading abilities and the none of the Riverlords wanted just that, they wanted to ravage the Westerlands.

 

 

22 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I dont think he cares

Pride is almost literally the only thing that triggers Robert in his late days.

Whenever he feels his pride has been wounded he reacts violently.

 

24 minutes ago, Hugorfonics said:

I just said it wasnt about Tyrion

Yeah, I heard you.  It was still what Tyrion represented. 

If that name meant so much for him, he would've invaded the Riverlands right away, as he did the moment Joffrey was King.

 

 

 

[The Sunland Lord]

Interesting, I never saw this as a mistake by Ned but it can be added to his political blunders. Good thinking by the OP.

If he sent Loras he would have engaged another powerful house in the conflict against the Lannisters, which is the smart thing to do. 

[Nevets]

I do not believe for an instant that Harwin came up with the idea of exchanging Ned for Tyrionon his own.  It is obviously something he was told, and GRRM's way of telling us what was going on behind the scenes.   I am therefore inclined to believe it.

I think Tywin sent Gregor into the Riverlands in order to goad the Riverlords into attacking Clegane lands, thus attacking the Westlands.  This would give him an excuse to attack the Riverlands openly, thus causing a wider war.  Ned would be sent in to intervene and sort things out.  Tywin could then have him arrested on some pretext and then do the exchange.  What Robert would do is unclear.   Either Ned is overestimating Robert's willingness to retaliate or Tywin is underestimating it.  I suspect the former.

Once Ned was injured this plan was out the window.  I think the attacks Ned heard of were during this period.  

The next important event is Ned sending Beric after Gregor.  If you think Gregor is going to sit still while some Marcher Lord comes to chop his head off, think again.  Whether Tywin approved, or even knew, doesn't really matter.   Once Tober was dead, any worries about retaliation from the Crown disappeared. 

If Loras had been sent and killed, I expect Tywin would have felt forced to disavow Gregor, and probably would send his head to the Tyrells.  I expect this would not bother him in the least.

  

[frenin]

56 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I do not believe for an instant that Harwin came up with the idea of exchanging Ned for Tyrionon his own.  It is obviously something he was told,

By whom?? It's not like the Westerosi usually pulled a Varys and stop and tell their evil plans to their enemies, and it certainly no Lannister ever hinted that such a plan even existed in the first place, it's far more logical that Harwin came up with that idea. Not because it's the latter info means that is the good one.

 

56 minutes ago, Nevets said:

and GRRM's way of telling us what was going on behind the scenes.   I am therefore inclined to believe it.

Martin likes to mislead us and there is no better way than an unreliable info.

 

 

56 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Ned would be sent in to intervene and sort things out.  Tywin could then have him arrested on some pretext and then do the exchange.  What Robert would do is unclear.   Either Ned is overestimating Robert's willingness to retaliate or Tywin is underestimating it.  I suspect the former.

Tywin is also underestimating Ned's. Who would go to war the minuted he is released. It's unlikely the crowns intervention, Robert would give some vague orders, "Release Tyrion, stop this madness" and that's that. He's not like to send Ned anywhere near Tywin and his bannermen knowing the bad blood between them and he is not likely to forgive being insulted in such a public manner.

 

56 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Once Ned was injured this plan was out the window.  I think the attacks Ned heard of were during this period.  

Ned was leaving King's Landing before he was injured, the plan was never going to work.

 

 

[Lucia Targaryen]

Depends on whether or not Loras was killed or taken capture. 

If he was killed, I imagine Mace would try to attack Tywin as soon as he could.

If he was taken as a prisoner, Tywin would use that as leverage to at least get the Tyrells to be neutral.

Given what happened at the Hand's tourney, I'm sure that Gregor would have just killed Loras.

[sweetsunray]

On 6/8/2020 at 2:17 PM, Hugorfonics said:

Gregor was laying an ambush and was thusly hiding untill he spotted the army. It is kinda infeasible for him to have contact with the outside world

So, you think Gregor was lying beneath a bush in wait for over a fortnight, and did not move?

Laying in ambush does not mean you don't use runners and messengers. It just means you choose a good spot to attack from, once a target arrives. It means having scouts and spies out to inform you when the target approaches, and it means having a separate spot to camp out and be reachable for any information.... you know as we see the BwB do so often.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

On 6/4/2020 at 8:38 PM, Canon Claude said:

This is one of those hypotheticals I think about more than most. Ned Stark had an opportunity to send Loras Tyrell at the head of the expedition into the Riverlands to arrest Ser Gregor Clegane for his crimes. Ned refuses due to Loras' rashness, pride, and eagerness to fight. Instead, he sends Beric Dondarrion, who goes on to have the storyline that we're familiar with. 

 

But even then, Varys was trying to warn Ned that he would have been better off sending Loras. Loras is not only very popular and well-known throughout the Seven Kingdoms, but he is also the beloved son of a Lord Paramount; his father happens to be in charge of the breadbasket of the kingdoms, as well as its largest armies. That's nothing to shake a stick at, and I've wondered if Tywin Lannister would have backed away from antagonizing three different kingdoms rather than just two. True, the North and the Riverlands prove that they can hold Tywin off and even defeat him in battle, but if the Reach entered the equation, House Lannister would be in huge trouble. So maybe Tywin orders Gregor not to attack Loras's party? Or at least take Loras prisoner? Would Tywin have been able to communicate with Ser Gregor at all?

Plus it's interesting to think of whether or not Loras would have become what the lightning lord was in the main storyline. I'm sure there's going to be lots of different opinions, but that's part of what makes it so interesting to me.

It is very interesting to ponder.  If Ned sent had sent Loras .( Tywin's plan was to capture Ned in order to use as a hostage to free Tyrion . Tyrion was already free and Ned got wounded in the dust up with Jaime and the boys . ) . Loras would run head long into Gregor  . If Loras kills Gregor ,I'm pretty sure Tywin will throw him under the bus , but if Gregor kills Loras considering that the plot to kill Robert is under way . The WOTFK would still be underway but the Reach  and the Iron Isles would probably attack the Westerlands .