Altherion Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 The past few decades have seen the prices of housing in many (most?) large cities around the world skyrocket as wealth became concentrated there. Aside from the access to this wealth, cities also offer an abundance of restaurants, museums, theaters, clubs, etc. and the opportunity to interact with many distinct cultures. However, 2020 has reminded humanity that there are also considerable downsides of living in cities: globally with the pandemic and, to some extent also with the rioting and looting which, while restricted mostly to several American cities, appears to have been well publicized across the world. In the short term, it seems that a non-trivial fraction of the people who could easily leave did leave. For example, in New York City (New York Times article): Quote Roughly 5 percent of residents — or about 420,000 people — left the city between March 1 and May 1. In the city’s very wealthiest blocks, in neighborhoods like the Upper East Side, the West Village, SoHo and Brooklyn Heights, residential population decreased by 40 percent or more, while the rest of the city saw comparably modest changes. Of course, it's a pretty safe bet that most of these people will come back once the pandemic is over, but will all of them? Probably not. Furthermore, people who did not have a place to go to this spring might consider moving away from cities. The counterargument is that there have always been plagues and riots, but cities just keep growing. However, there is a new wrinkle this time enabled by technology: working from home. In the past, this was a perk restricted to a relatively small number of employees, but given that it seems to work reasonably well, corporations might want to save some of the money spent on renting offices and make it more common. What do people think: will the giant cities shrink a bit (and maybe become more affordable) or will they return to roughly where they were before once a vaccine becomes available? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Free Northman Reborn Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 As a family man I think suburban life in a smallish city gives you the best possible balance in quality of life. Short travel times to work but still all the amenities you would reasonably get in a city but not in a small town. Large metropolis life isn’t worth the higher wages and enhanced career mobility, given what you sacrifice in return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fury Resurrected Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 I am house shopping in Minneapolis right now and I would not even consider buying in the suburbs. No fucking way, I’d rather rent. The suburbs freak me out and I say this as someone who had guns drawn on them in their yard by the cops and national guard last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThinkerX Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 long run, or even mid run, suburbia is not sustainable - at least rural suburbia. Time you figure in not just the cost of the house, but the utilities and the expense of the commute...it gets prohibitively expensive for a lot of people. I see this on my route at work (pretty much the definition of rural suburbia). Literally half my customers are 'social security age.' They were generally well off prior to retirement, benefit from senior citizen discounts (including property tax breaks), and don't travel much. Most of the remainder have well paying jobs - some of which involve frequent traveling that provide enough income to make life in the woods. Most of the rest are working poor, just barely squeaking by with the occasional government check, or are out and out criminals. Almost no businesses past the first couple of miles - the ones that were out there failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DireWolfSpirit Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 I think the people in the crowded cities should continue as is and leave more of the open spaces and fresh air for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ants Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Unless population falls for some reason, pushing for more people out in the country is pretty environmentally bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Luzifer's right hand Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 They best approach from an environmental point of view would involve the concentration of 99,9% of humanity in cities. Let nature reclaim as much of the countryside as possible. Single family homes are incredible wasteful. Agriculture would be the exception of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Drunkard Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 My city is reasonably high population, predominantly suburban with decent living spaces, and one of the more affordable Australian cities, but I am tempted to move into the country. I think the ideal would be several weeks rural WFH, then a week or so in the city to handle anything that must be or is better done in person. Mostly rural living without the shithouse salary or career opportunities. There were people in the same industry as I that already worked like this and provided value doing it, so hopefully the pandemic helps to normalise this lifestyle and make it more achievable. I miss being able to go outside and be in almost absolute silence. 1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said: They best approach from an environmental point of view would involve the concentration of 99,9% of humanity in cities. Let nature reclaim as much of the countryside as possible. Single family homes are incredible wasteful. Agriculture would be the exception of course. I think the absolute best approach would be having fewer people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Altherion Posted June 9, 2020 Author Share Posted June 9, 2020 3 hours ago, ants said: Unless population falls for some reason, pushing for more people out in the country is pretty environmentally bad. 2 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said: They best approach from an environmental point of view would involve the concentration of 99,9% of humanity in cities. Let nature reclaim as much of the countryside as possible. Single family homes are incredible wasteful. I was thinking of mentioning this, but it didn't really fit into that first post. Yes, the environmentalists have been pushing the idea of dense cities with mass transit as part of a greener future. In light of the pandemic, I'm reasonably confident that this dream is, if not dead, at least indefinitely delayed. There is no doubt at all that population density contributes to the spread of diseases and similarly it is clear that both mass transit and massive apartment complexes made the coronavirus worse. It might be possible to make do with Chinese-style quarantines and enforcement, but this is simply not happening in Western cities and nobody wants it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brook Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 If anything this year has only made me more convinced that the ungodly amount of rent we pay is more than worth it to be somewhere where everything I need and most things I want are within a 5 minute walk from my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A True Kaniggit Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Ahhh! The Princess Bubblegum and Marceline picture is gone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brook Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said: Ahhh! The Princess Bubblegum and Marceline picture is gone! Yeah I don’t know what happened there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mexal Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Maybe some people, but on the whole, think it'll be a very small amount (who will be replaced). For example, rental market in NY is still pretty good and those 40% of people who left wealthy neighborhoods just went to their second home (or rented a home for a few months). My building had about 50% occupancy for a few months and now most are back. The riots/looting is minimal right now and while some small businesses, especially in the Flatbush area, got hit, don't think it's enough for them to just pick up and move to a rural/suburban location. As long as there are still a large fraction of jobs in a major city, people will live there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heartofice Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 The UK is incredibly London centric and it is a massive problem in this country as far as I'm concerned. House prices are insane anywhere in the South East and any commuter town is over priced. So you'd think that would force people to move out of London because house prices are simply not affordable. The general trend from what I can see is that London is a hub for younger people, looking to make their careers (or at least find a job of any kind!) and enjoy the surroundings of a fast paced exciting city. Once you get to middle age and would like to have a family then there is also a trend for people to try and move as far out as they can whilst still being able to work in London. Growing up I would have hated to have lived in some provincial town where I knew everyone and I loved that I could get into London easily and meet new people, party with different girls. It was exciting, I could get a new job every week if I wanted one. But now I have a family and my need are different, I hate having to head into town, and so I'm looking to get the hell out. The problem with the UK especially is that the infrastructure, especially in terms of transport, does not support people outside of london. Local transport links are mostly awful, train fares are so expensive that you could end up losing money by moving further out. There is also a huge lack of investment outside the capital. Until that happens I don't see very much changing. Even with the outbreak of remote working now I can't imagine massive changes to the way things are until we fix all the other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iskaral Pust Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 I think the OP is a worthwhile question. After 9/11 there was a brief, fear-driven exodus from Manhattan, but the cultural and economic lure of the city quickly reasserted. It’s possible that this time could be different but I think that would require a persistent problem. If coronavirus stays with us (no effective vaccine, and no persistent antibodies) making public transport, Uber, restaurants, theaters, bars, nightclubs, parties and even crowded sidewalks hazardous, then I can see a drift away from cities. If coronavirus is ultimately tamed but in the meantime there is a big realignment in working remotely rather than paying for prime downtown real estate, then there may be a small % of city dwellers who leave but they’re probably the ones who would have left for the suburbs eventually anyway. There will still be an advantage to having knowledge workers interact in person, and there will still be career and social benefits from proximity to options. We reluctantly moved from downtown Chicago to suburban CT six months ago for a career opponent I just couldn’t turn down. We miss the energy, variety and choices available in the city. Of course, my son and I also enjoy the restful sylvan setting compared to the low level stress of being around concrete and noise all day (not my wife, she loves the concrete and doesn’t find greenery restful). Right now we would not be able to enjoy the benefits of the city anyway, but a year or two from now that will hopefully be very different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigFatCoward Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 The thing with london is (and I assume other major cities) its possible to live 45 mins outside, and still be a quicker commute than if you live in the city and your job is in the wrong place for your commute. I live 55 miles outside of london, and getting to work takes the same time as it did when I lived in zone 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loge Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 There is no way for the whole world to adopt a US-type suburban lifestyle, so cities are here to stay. The question is how they will look in 100 years. I guess there will be fewer cars, if any. The big question is what is the optimum population density. New York City has more than 10,000 per km^2, which I wouldn't be comfortable with. Berlin, on the other hand, has 4000 per km^2, which means there's quite a bit of green and everybody doesn't live in ten story buildings. As for big cities being more dangerous in times of the pandemic, I don't think that's true. At least it hasn't been in Europe with Sars2 / Covid 19. Northern Italy and eastern France where hit quite badly, Rome and Paris not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
john Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 5 hours ago, brook said: Yeah I don’t know what happened there The board got rebooted a few weeks ago, you have to reload profile pics in your profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dog-days Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Rightmove has been reporting a big surge in interest in outside space. I'm not sure how long it will last. For now I'm not at all surprised. Having no garden of my own, I've taken to wandering round the backstreets of the town I live in while making a study of people's front gardens. Are they well-kept? Wildlife friendly? Has the idiot owner concreted over all the greenery? Are there trees, and to what extent are those trees awesome? So watch out if you live in Wales and have a front garden in a less than wonderful state. I will be passing by with a clipboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starkess Posted June 9, 2020 Share Posted June 9, 2020 Maybe, but not me personally. I grew up in a small town and did not enjoy that setting at all. I really enjoy being in a city. I like having a variety of food options. I like entertainment and public transit and I have zero desire to maintain a yard. I also do not want kids, which seems to be a main driver in people leaving urban areas. Funnily enough, I am very introverted with social anxiety, so I don't actually like to *interact* with all the people around me much, but I like that they're *there*. And I actually find the anonymity of a big city relieving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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