The end state of the North in 9 steps

[Mithras]

The North as we know it will be no more at the end of the story.

1. SSM: The North is the place that suffers the consequences of winters most severely.
2. Others: They will have a huge impact in the books. The North will take the brunt of the icy apocalypse. Do we really expect the North to survive the story intact as if the Others were just a bad weather or as if the Long Night was just a bad dream?
3. Jon vs. Mance: There is poetic irony of Jon finding himself in the shoes of Mance as in seeing the futility of trying to hold their ground against the dead. At a certain point, Jon might be expected to give up trying to fight the dead off and decide to abandon their homelands. His so-called “Azor Ahai dream” from ADwD might be interpreted as such. While trying to hold the Wall, Jon realizes that he is the only person left defending the Wall. There is no point of trying to hold the Wall if it means the deaths of everyone including Jon's family and friends. It should not come to that. Jon might be Mance 2.0 by leading a mass evacuation of the survivors to southern kingdoms. “The North is not a place, it’s a people”. Mance was considered as leading a massive wildling host in order to invade the Realm while in fact he was fleeing from the Others. Jon might be mistaken just the same. This exodus thrusts Jon into the southern politics and fuels conflicts between him and pretenders in the south, especially Dany.
4. Chekhov’s plagues: Grey plague or Shivers or Winter Fever or any other disease might cause a huge depopulation in the North, making their war against the dead impossible.
5. Fire & Blood: There were massive lawlessness and starvation during bad winters. In one case, many Northmen sold themselves to slavery to buy food for their families throughout the winter. I guess the stakes should be higher in the upcoming Long Night. Cregan Stark brought a host of Northmen to the war, from which none of them expected to return. This is the Northern way and GRRM is constantly bringing it up. These people did not get the war and the death they volunteered for but they did not return to their homes either. Instead, they were married to the many widows of the Dance of Dragons in Riverlands. Because of thousands of marriages like these, Riverlands saw the revival of the faith of the Old Gods which the Northmen brought with them. This might be a hint that after their country is overrun by the Others, the surviving Northmen will settle in Riverlands as refugees and another merging of cultures will take place. Riverlands already took significant damage from the War of the 5 Kings. There will be even more decimation during the upcoming Dance of Dragons 2.0 and whatever damage the Others will cause. Therefore, Riverlands will be suitably depopulated for a possible merging with the surviving Northmen. Not just them. There will be leftovers from various peoples Dany brought from Essos.
6. New North and New Free Folk: After the Others are dealt with, the North will not be repopulated by the Northmen. There will be no such excessive population to fill such a vast country to begin with. There will be no returning to the pre-war state, at least for a long time. The North will mostly turn into a wilderness, much like the Lands Beyond the Wall (while there was a Wall). Surviving wildlings and clansmen and people out of the feudal system will live in the North as the new free folk. As Ygritte told Jon, the whole northern vs southron thing is a matter of perspective.
7. TWOIAF: After a couple of centuries, a fool will write a history book arguing that the Others were just a tale fabricated as justification for the savage Northmen coming south and conquering war-torn countries. A fool like this: “Archmaester Fomas's Lies of the Ancients—though little regarded these days for its erroneous claims regarding the founding of Valyria and certain lineal claims in the Reach and westerlands—does speculate that the Others of legend were nothing more than a tribe of the First Men, ancestors of the wildlings, that had established itself in the far north. Because of the Long Night, these early wildlings were then pressured to begin a wave of conquests to the south. That they became monstrous in the tales told thereafter, according to Fomas, reflects the desire of the Night's Watch and the Starks to give themselves a more heroic identity as saviors of mankind, and not merely the beneficiaries of a struggle over dominion.”
8. Growth arc: That means no one will rule Winterfell in the end because Winterfell will be no more. Surviving Stark kids will have to found new homes for themselves. The home of their childhood will be just a memory. This is a bittersweet growth arc that fits ASOIAF.
9. New dynasty: Starks will take over the dominion of Riverlands and make it their home. They might even end up being the kings of whole Westeros with the capitol at Harrenhal.

[Lollygag]

Ok, I'll go there too. Any of this happening wouldn't surprise me at all.

A few other things that push me in this direction are that unless the Others move south in a significant way, the theme of the Game of Thrones falls apart for me. We see at the Wall that there are internal Walls which people hide behind in denial (your #7). Looking at you Bowen Marsh. Westeros will be filled with Bowen Marshes who prefer denial to their well-ordered reality being smashed to bits. So the Others need to go deep, deep South to impact the Game of the Thrones centered in KL in any significant way and as they're building an army with the dead, they won't be nice and leave the North untouched along the way. And unless the Others move far South, a lot of the detail spent on the South becomes filler, entertaining though it may be.

The other thing which pushes me in this direction is the contrast of the Starks holding Winterfell for thousands and thousands of years, yet we see families rise and fall all of the time in the books. It seems like they're long overdue for a big change. Also, I don't think this is a story that will end with "...and everything went back to the way it was, which honesty, really sucked."

3. Jon/Mance: as Jon seems to destined to rise, the typical ambition course taken in Westeros doesn't fit his character - he's definitely ambitious but not without standards so I think he needs a purpose and this fits very well.

8. Winterfell and Winter is Coming kind of lose their meaning if the Others are dealt with. I don't think they'll be defeated as death is a part of life, just that something will be worked out somehow and brought back into balance.

Settling in the Riverlands with the Wildlings integrating: I think Tyrion and his arc with the Vale Wildlings is good set up for this. Stannis' weird army of Southerners, Northerners and Wildlings is also a big indicator that things will permanently change in very significant ways. Add the Dothraki (who seem connected to the CotF stories in Essos) and the Unsullied who I expect will be more than just cannon fodder.

Wouldn't be surprised at all if Harrenhal is the new capitol, especially with the Gods Eye there.

 

[Rose of Red Lake]

On 6/17/2020 at 11:57 AM, Mithras said:

Others: They will have a huge impact in the books. The North will take the brunt of the icy apocalypse. Do we really expect the North to survive the story intact as if the Others were just a bad weather or as if the Long Night was just a bad dream?

Depends. Is the author more interested in showing what will happen if humanity chooses inaction in the face of a humanity-wide threat, or is he more interested in showing how people have to work to prevent it. I think the action of the story is more about the latter and the former will be presented as an apocalyptic wasteland in a dream/vision/prophecy.

[norwaywolf123]

On 6/17/2020 at 8:57 PM, Mithras said:

The North as we know it will be no more at the end of the story.

1. SSM: The North is the place that suffers the consequences of winters most severely.
2. Others: They will have a huge impact in the books. The North will take the brunt of the icy apocalypse. Do we really expect the North to survive the story intact as if the Others were just a bad weather or as if the Long Night was just a bad dream?
3. Jon vs. Mance: There is poetic irony of Jon finding himself in the shoes of Mance as in seeing the futility of trying to hold their ground against the dead. At a certain point, Jon might be expected to give up trying to fight the dead off and decide to abandon their homelands. His so-called “Azor Ahai dream” from ADwD might be interpreted as such. While trying to hold the Wall, Jon realizes that he is the only person left defending the Wall. There is no point of trying to hold the Wall if it means the deaths of everyone including Jon's family and friends. It should not come to that. Jon might be Mance 2.0 by leading a mass evacuation of the survivors to southern kingdoms. “The North is not a place, it’s a people”. Mance was considered as leading a massive wildling host in order to invade the Realm while in fact he was fleeing from the Others. Jon might be mistaken just the same. This exodus thrusts Jon into the southern politics and fuels conflicts between him and pretenders in the south, especially Dany.
4. Chekhov’s plagues: Grey plague or Shivers or Winter Fever or any other disease might cause a huge depopulation in the North, making their war against the dead impossible.
5. Fire & Blood: There were massive lawlessness and starvation during bad winters. In one case, many Northmen sold themselves to slavery to buy food for their families throughout the winter. I guess the stakes should be higher in the upcoming Long Night. Cregan Stark brought a host of Northmen to the war, from which none of them expected to return. This is the Northern way and GRRM is constantly bringing it up. These people did not get the war and the death they volunteered for but they did not return to their homes either. Instead, they were married to the many widows of the Dance of Dragons in Riverlands. Because of thousands of marriages like these, Riverlands saw the revival of the faith of the Old Gods which the Northmen brought with them. This might be a hint that after their country is overrun by the Others, the surviving Northmen will settle in Riverlands as refugees and another merging of cultures will take place. Riverlands already took significant damage from the War of the 5 Kings. There will be even more decimation during the upcoming Dance of Dragons 2.0 and whatever damage the Others will cause. Therefore, Riverlands will be suitably depopulated for a possible merging with the surviving Northmen. Not just them. There will be leftovers from various peoples Dany brought from Essos.
6. New North and New Free Folk: After the Others are dealt with, the North will not be repopulated by the Northmen. There will be no such excessive population to fill such a vast country to begin with. There will be no returning to the pre-war state, at least for a long time. The North will mostly turn into a wilderness, much like the Lands Beyond the Wall (while there was a Wall). Surviving wildlings and clansmen and people out of the feudal system will live in the North as the new free folk. As Ygritte told Jon, the whole northern vs southron thing is a matter of perspective.
7. TWOIAF: After a couple of centuries, a fool will write a history book arguing that the Others were just a tale fabricated as justification for the savage Northmen coming south and conquering war-torn countries. A fool like this: “Archmaester Fomas's Lies of the Ancients—though little regarded these days for its erroneous claims regarding the founding of Valyria and certain lineal claims in the Reach and westerlands—does speculate that the Others of legend were nothing more than a tribe of the First Men, ancestors of the wildlings, that had established itself in the far north. Because of the Long Night, these early wildlings were then pressured to begin a wave of conquests to the south. That they became monstrous in the tales told thereafter, according to Fomas, reflects the desire of the Night's Watch and the Starks to give themselves a more heroic identity as saviors of mankind, and not merely the beneficiaries of a struggle over dominion.”
8. Growth arc: That means no one will rule Winterfell in the end because Winterfell will be no more. Surviving Stark kids will have to found new homes for themselves. The home of their childhood will be just a memory. This is a bittersweet growth arc that fits ASOIAF.
9. New dynasty: Starks will take over the dominion of Riverlands and make it their home. They might even end up being the kings of whole Westeros with the capitol at Harrenhal.

Overall this seems plausible

[BalerionTheCat]

1,2. It depends how far south the Others reach. IMO it makes no sense if the south houses do not pay for their errors. They could suffer worse than the north, from both Ice and Fire. The north and the Vale have been relatively able to prepare for winter and are used to extreme winters. If the south suffers the same winter than the north, it will be devastating.

3 Jon is the one by whom the Free Folk will find a place south of the Wall. Maybe help surviving the Winter. Someone must be the "Last Hero", the PtwP, AA. Or the LN will stay and all mankind will die. I'm not sure fleeing south is the escape. Living underground, in caves like the CotF may be better.

4. Grey plague Possibly. Shivers and Winter Fever barely touched the north. Count also for the Pale Mare.

5. Not sure what is the connection between the Others and the Old Gods. But thanks Bran, Jon, the Free Folk, the probable uselessness of the 7 and the death of their followers, I expect a return to the First Men values, the faith in the OG and their weirwoods.

6. IMO every place will be depopulated. Not just the north. The climate will be different after, the winters milder. Some FF may chose to live south, others will return far north because it was their home and life will be easier now.

7 In 200 years, Bran will be like BR is now. The Old Gods and the weirwoods everywhere. There could still be fools like Fomas. But I don't think the lesson of the Others will be forgotten soon.

8,9 I believe Winterfell will still be there with a Stark, part why Rickon is in this story. But KL will be no more. Something ephemeral, created by the Targaryens, the most stinking city of the known world. No more than the forced 7 kingdoms unification. Smaller kingdoms whose wars could not endanger the whole Westeros. And those wars prevented by people without crown or lands. Maybe founded by Jon and remnants of the NW, by FF volunteers, maybe remnants unsullied and sellswords of Dany armies. A new NW who like the Starks would "call the banners" if matters were going beyond their ability to handle. Or like Ned when he asked Dondarion to assist against the Mountain.