How did Barristan known that Ashara had a stillborn daughter? A possible answer.

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

Warning: a lot of talk about stillbirths.

I think I may have a plausible answer to how Barristan knew about Ashara's stillborn girl when no one else seemingly does, but I'm curious what other people think.

When discussing this, people always seem to take the information that Ashara had stillbirth at face value, while not asking how Barristan could have come to know this, why nobody else in Westeros never mentioned it, or whether it’s even true. Though in this case, I’ll be assuming the stillbirth did happen for the purpose of this theory.

Note that Ashara was known to be a lady-in-waiting to the Princess Elia, and that she hadn't been long at court when the tourney at Harrenhal rolled around in 281 AC. It's also known that she was dismissed from Elia's service at an unknown time for unknown reasons, but it happened early enough that Ashara seems to have spent a significant amount of time in Dorne while the Rebellion was occurring.

Barristan is the first and only person to state that Ashara Dayne had a stillbirth in the books. Saying:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? -- A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

It seems rumors spread far and wide that Ned and Ashara may have had a thing at Harrenhal, and further, that Jon Snow was a possible result of this fling. We as the readers know this second part likely isn't true considering R+L=J seems a sure thing, but we do know this rumor spread wide as both Catelyn and Cersei confronted Ned over Ashara and her possibly mothering Jon. It's also mentioned by Catelyn in AGOT that the staff/soldiers at Winterfell were gossiping about Ashara when Jon first arrived as a baby. So it seems safe to say that the rumors of Ashara/Ned have spread very far over Westeros.

Why this rumor got started…well, that’s a post for another time.

Truthfully, I don't think it was Ned that "dishonored" Ashara, nor that he was the Stark that she “looked to” at Harrenhal. I think it was Brandon Stark who took a tumble with her and got her pregnant.

I'll keep this part short, but as it feeds into my reasoning later, I'll just say that: 1) Barristan is old fashioned, so dishonoring could range anywhere from being seen kissing in public all the way to being raped. In this case, I think he's just referring to consensual out of wedlock sex that left Ashara pregnant and abandoned. 2) Barristan seems to work well with and think highly of Ned in AGOT. Would he have gotten on so well with the man who "dishonored" his precious Ashara? I think not. 3) Per Barbrey Dustin, Brandon was definitely the type to deflower maidens and not marry them. 4) Conversely, Ned really WASN'T that type. He was so shy Brandon had to ask Ashara to dance with him. To go from that to having sex/dishonoring her during those few days or weeks of the tournament? I don't buy it. 5) The Tourney at Harrenhal happened at an undefined point in 281 AC. Some time then passed and winter set back in. At the beginning of 282 AC Lyanna was kidnapped. At this point, Brandon seemed to have been travelling to meetup with his father's wedding party (for Brandon's wedding to Cat) somewhere between the North and Riverrun, so word would take time to travel to him of Lyanna's "abduction" as the phrasing around all this gives me the impression Lyanna was not with Brandon when this happened. So for Brandon to be informed, then turn around and go to KL, would take at least two or three weeks by my estimate if not longer. Then Rickard Stark and his entire wedding party of 200 men had to be informed and play catch up and get to KL, which was probably another few weeks. So what I'm saying is, from Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being murdered was probably a period from 4-10 months of length if not longer, depending on when Harrenhal happened in 281 AC. That's plenty of time for Ashara to realize she was pregnant and write to Ned and get themselves a shotgun wedding, if Ned indeed had been the one to do her dirty (and since Ashara didn’t get married—either the baby daddy didn’t want to OR he had a big-time betrothal that couldn’t be broken). 6) The Daynes seem to think well of Ned, and I don't see that happening if he got Ashara pregnant out of wedlock and then didn't marry her. 7) I don’t know why GRRM would mention a Stark being “looked to” if it meant jackall, and it was some third rando to get her pregnant. 

Now put a pin in all that while we go back to Barristan. While Ashara/Ned was widespread, no such rumor of the stillborn daughter seems to be anywhere in Westeros, so where and how did Barristan learn this information?

Barristan is the only person to mention that Ashara had a stillbirth. Edric Dayne didn't seem to know anything about it, and only said to Arya that:

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." (...) "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—"  - A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

So it seems the younger Dayne's knew nothing about the stillbirth. Perhaps Allyria kept it from Edric, or Edric was keeping this detail from Arya. But he was so tactless about it that I  doubt he would have spared Arya this detail. Additionally, Edric also seems to believe Wylla was Jon's mother, and if he knew about the stillbirth and yet didn't to connect it to Ned...all I'm saying is, Edric's reasoning is off if he knew about the stillborn girl and Ned/Ashara and came to the conclusions he did, so I don't think he knew anything about the baby.

Barristan Selmy is from one of the principal houses in the Stormlands before he became a Kingsguard, so Houses Selmy and Dayne aren't exactly close enough geographically or relations-wise to be swapping mortifying secrets like Ashara having an out-of-marriage stillbirth. The Dayne’s were stony Dornish, not nearly as liberal as the rest of Dorne, and I doubt they’d want this information to get around.

Also in reading the books, I can't find any indication that anyone knew of Barristan's crush on Ashara. So I can't conceive of any reason why Ashara or her brother Arthur, or any of the other Daynes would tell Barristan "oh by the way, Ashara had an out of wedlock stillbirth and surprise it's a girl". It just doesn’t make sense. Hell, even if they did know he had a crush, it doesn't make sense. That'd be a weird thing to share with a dude crushing on one of your family members.

So as I said above, there seemed a lot of rumors circulating around Ashara already, but this wasn't one of them. So Barristan had to have heard this information very close to the source as there was no rumor to carry it to him, which leaves the thing Barristan and Ashara shared: the Royal Family.

So how did Barristan Selmy know that Ashara had a stillborn daughter? He was there when she had the stillbirth.

After Harrenhal, it's known that Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia returned to Dragonstone where she then gave birth to Prince Aegon. Shortly afterwards at the beginning of 282 AC, Rhaegar, two Kingsguard, and a few other companions left to go kidnap/rescue/whatever the hell it was Rhaegar was doing with Lyanna. From this we now know that the Kingsguard didn't stay with Aerys 100% of the time, and that they traveled with other member’s of the Targaryen family.

Even with Rhaegar gone, that still left Princess Elia and the two “heirs of the heir” at Dragonstone, so I think it very likely that a third Kingsguard who traveled with the royal couple after Harrenhal was left to protect them. And I think that Kingsguard was Barristan.

Barristan wasn’t in Rhaegar’s trusted circle as evidenced by him not knowing about the Lyanna plot, but being Barristan the Bold he’s clearly dependable enough to entrust the Crown Prince’s wife and kids too. (And some part of me just really hopes that Rhaegar didn’t leave Elia completely hung out to dry when he absconded, but that’s just me.)

I scoured the books, but couldn’t find any indication of Barristan being there the day the Starks were strangled/burned by Aerys. We know Jaime and Gerold Hightower were there, and that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent weren’t, but for the other three it’s unknown. Barristan feels guilty about standing beside the Iron Throne and doing nothing while the madness happened. But considering the awful things Aerys did before Harrenhal and the many terrible things after, it’s hard to pin down just which of these horrors Barristan was around in-person to feel guilty about.

Elia was eventually called to King's Landing as a hostage during the Rebellion, for Aerys to ensure that Prince Lewyn led the forces of Dorne loyally for the Crown. But in the time between Lyanna being taken, Rickard & Brandon being murdered, and the banners being called—there was no reason for Elia to be in KL as the Rebellion hadn’t yet started. And since her giving birth to Rhaenys left her bedridden for six months, and Aegon’s birth was said to be even more traumatic, I believe both Elia and her lady-in-waiting Ashara remained on Dragonstone while the Princess recovered.

Now, whether Ashara hid her pregnancy, or Elia knew but allowed her to stay, or some third option happened I can’t really say. But for Barristan to know about thestillborn daughter without anybody else (even the younger Dayne’s!) knowing, I truly believe they had to be in the same place when it happened.

Pertinent note: in modern times, a miscarriage is considered to become a stillbirth once past the 20 week (5 month) mark. A fetus’s gender can become discernable by ultrasound at 18-22 weeks, though I believe it can be observed a few weeks earlier if there is a stillbirth.

As I said above, I believe anywhere from 4-10 months passed from Ashara becoming pregnant at Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being killed by the mad king. In this case, I think she was 5-7 months pregnant when news of their violent deaths reached Dragonstone (probably along with the demand that Elia come to King’s Landing). It’s likely from the sheer awfulness of hearing how the father of her baby was murdered, that Ashara went into premature labor which unfortunately ended in a stillbirth.

And since Barristan was there and would have come running at any word of his "fair lady" being ill, that’s how he found out about the baby it’s gender, and probably who the baby daddy was  from how distraught Ashara was over Brandon.

This was likely when Elia dismissed Ashara from her service and sent her home, which is how Ashara was in Dorne for a majority of the Rebellion, and also the reason why the dismissal's reasoning was so vague.

Now you're probably asking me, why didn’t the stillbirth become a rumor later on? I think Princess Elia, who probably came to care for Ashara in the time the girl was with her at court, covered it up and swore her household to secrecy. After this, Elia and said household had to return to KL, and I think between Aery’s predations and the later sack by Tywin, the entire household along with Elia were killed which stopped any rumor from ever spreading.

So to sum up: 1) between my belief that Brandon was the one to “dishonor” Ashara at Harrenhal and get her pregnant, 2) the probable time gap from Harrenhal to Brandon’s death being a good five months or more, 3) Ashara being dismissed for vague reasons and being in Dorne most of the Rebellion, 4) Barristan noting later on the she “mourned” the man who dishonored her, 5) no rumor ever forming about the stillbirth, 6) the younger Dayne’s not knowing of the stillbirth, 7) yet Barristan still somehow knowing it…he was there, and it happened on Dragonstone.

For why Ashara killed herself in 283 (probably more than 1-1.5 years after she lost the babe), that feeds into another favored theory of mine. With Ashara in Dorne and the Tower of Joy being near Starfall (and the Kingsguard likely trying to keep pregnant!Lyanna a secret), I think Ashara was ferrying news and supplies to the Tower. I also believe that once everything started going wrong for the Targaryens (Rhaegar dead, Elia and kids dead, Aerys gone, the last of the Targ-loyal banners lowering), that Ashara knew that they’d need help to hide baby!Jon & Lyanna in this newly hostile-to-Targs world. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to send word, maybe Ashara felt some obligation to Brandon, or maybe it was purely desperation, but I think Ashara wrote to Ned to tell him where Lyanna was in hopes he could offer assistance/asylum. Then she wrote her brother Arthur that Ned was coming. This is why neither group at the Tower seemed surprised when the throwdown happened.

But tragically, Ashara underestimated the aggression of both groups. From there I believe that dead daughter + dead lover + accidentally orchestrating her own brother’s death, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered her suicide.

As for why Barristan thought she killed herself for the lost child/lost lover year(s) after the fact, well, I don’t think he actually knew Ashara that well. He seemed to have her up on a pedestal. He always mentioned how beautiful Ashara was, but never any personality traits of what he actually admired about her. So like most people, Barristan just took the data points he had for Ashara dying (and the very traumatic thing he was there to witness) and extrapolated from there.

Though if anyone wants to use this weirdly long timeline to put another tickmark in the “Ashara faked her death” column, I’m not complaining.

 

Tl;dr Ashara’s baby daddy was Brandon Stark. She was on Dragonstone with Princess Elia and Barristan after the birth of Aegon via Elia. After hearing news of his Brandon’s death, out of grief/horror Ashara went into early labor and had a stillbirth. Barristan was there which is why he knows about the baby when no one else does.

[Megorova]

Based on information in the World book and what was said by characters in AGOT, it's likely that the Tournament at Harrenhal was held on October 29 - November 7 of 281.

It is known that the false spring ended less than two months after Tournament at Harrenhal. Also it is known that the winter began on the first day of 282. Thus Tournament was held in the end of October and thru the beginning of November, it lasted 10 days, one of which seems to be GRRM's parallel to Halloween, the third day of Tournament (October 31st), when Lyanna appeared as the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

Rhaegar kidnapped Lyanna close to a year after the Tournament. Based on information known about battles of Robert's Rebellion that happened in 282, it seems that Lyanna was kidnapped in the first half of October. There's just enough time after that until the end of 282 for Brandon to go to King's Landing, Rickard receiving news about what happened and also going to KL, Aerys executing them and sending his demands to Jon Arryn, battle of Gulltown (lasted one day), Robert going to Stormlands, three duels at Summerhall (all three happened in one day), after them Robert going back to Storm's End to prepare for further battles, battle at Ashford (which was the last battle of 282). Based on distanses between Harrenhal (near which Lyanna was kidnapped), King's Landing, Riverrun, Eyrie, Gulltown, Storm's End, Summerhall, Ashford, Horn Hill and Highgarden (from which Randyll Tarly and Mace Tyrell brought their armies to fight against Robert at Ashford), 2,5 months is enough for all that battling and traveling - thru second half of October, November and December of 282.

Based on what is known about Elia's pregnancies, Aegon was born in second half of December of 281 or in first half of January of 282. If Ashara's child was conceived during Tournament at Harrenhal, then due date of its birth was second half of July of 282.

The baby (if there was a baby) was supposed to be born in July, while Brandon was executed in late October-early November.

[U. B. Cool]

The two lead candidates for the "baby daddy" are Brandon Stark and Oberyn Martell.  I am going with Brandon Stark because his responsible little brother felt the need to help Ashara.  Ned is an okay fellow but he is no saint.  It also fits the pattern.  Everything that was meant for Brandon, the Handship, Catelyn, Barbrey, Winterfell, and so forth ended up on his lap.  It goes to reason that every Brandon mess up is also for Ned to clean up.  He got Winterfell, the Girl, the Handship, and so forth.  He must also accept the duty to clean up Brandon's cock-ups.  For this reason, I am open to the possibility of Jon Snow really being the child of Brandon and Lyanna.  Brandon Stark + Lyanna Stark = Jon Snow would make for wonderful drama and a great story.  

Brandon has been presented as a real butthead of a guy.  It would be in his character to meet Ashara for the purpose of expressing his brother's interest and then taking advantage of her.  Mind you, I am not saying it was forcible rape.  More like a seduction but nevertheless consensual.  Arthur, for this reason, did not feel the need to cut the wild wolf's curly little wick off.  

To be honest, I do not believe it was a secret at the time.  It's not talked about in the Stark household because Ned wanted to protect his family honor.  His own children never knew what kind of a butthead their Uncle Brandon was, nor do they know how selfish their Aunt Lyanna was.  We also must remember, it was a long time ago.  Stillbirths are not uncommon.  And there is no reason to dig up the past.  I do not imagine it was uncommon for women of high birth to get pregnant and then lose the baby.  It was known back then.  It only seems like a well-guarded secret because the point of view characters either did not know of it because they were too young or it just did not come up in conversation.  Many of the point of view people are Starks and they are motivated to keep silent about it.  Barristan only told the story because young Daenerys wanted to know.  

I am open to B + L = J but the family that has a greater chance of being true is N + A = J.  If there was an R + L = something, it is Young Griff.  Ned forces Ashara to take the "more important" baby to the safety of Essos while giving up their own love child, Jon Snow.  This drama is repeated when Jon Snow forces Gilly to give her obviously "less important" baby to remain behind, while Mance Rayder's son is taken away to safety.  Little do they know, the more significant babies were left behind in both cases.  Yes, I believe Craster's son has a very important role to play at the Wall.  So does Jon Snow, the other baby who was left behind.  

Jon Connington and the Golden Company are using Young Griff as their ticket back to Westeros.  The Rayder babe can also be used as a bridge to build good will with the Wildlings if this forum's belief of Gillie and Rayder's son ending up in Essos becomes real.  Queen Daenerys and her advisers can use Gillie and baby Rayder as a means to build a bridge to the Wildlings, who I think will end up controlling everything north of Moat Cailin.  

 

[kissdbyfire]

54 minutes ago, U. B. Cool said:

For this reason, I am open to the possibility of Jon Snow really being the child of Brandon and Lyanna.  Brandon Stark + Lyanna Stark = Jon Snow would make for wonderful drama and a great story.  

It’s indeed wonderful drama, and fits in perfectly w/ a fantasy setting to have a ghost father an actual child on his still alive sister. Hey, maybe that’s why Jon’s direwolf is called Ghost? /s

[Big P]

Ser Barristan was attracted to Lady Ashara.  He knew she had sex at Harrenhal.  It is only natural for him to keep up with her life after that.  He had the means to collect information coming from Starfall because of his lofty office.  He could have had a servant working for him in Starfall if he had wanted to.  It is easy enough to command a serving person to ride to Starfall and bring him news.  

[Sigella]

17 hours ago, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

Warning: a lot of talk about stillbirths.

I think I may have a plausible answer to how Barristan knew about Ashara's stillborn girl when no one else seemingly does, but I'm curious what other people think.

When discussing this, people always seem to take the information that Ashara had stillbirth at face value, while not asking how Barristan could have come to know this, why nobody else in Westeros never mentioned it, or whether it’s even true. Though in this case, I’ll be assuming the stillbirth did happen for the purpose of this theory.

Note that Ashara was known to be a lady-in-waiting to the Princess Elia, and that she hadn't been long at court when the tourney at Harrenhal rolled around in 281 AC. It's also known that she was dismissed from Elia's service at an unknown time for unknown reasons, but it happened early enough that Ashara seems to have spent a significant amount of time in Dorne while the Rebellion was occurring.

Barristan is the first and only person to state that Ashara Dayne had a stillbirth in the books. Saying:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? -- A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

It seems rumors spread far and wide that Ned and Ashara may have had a thing at Harrenhal, and further, that Jon Snow was a possible result of this fling. We as the readers know this second part likely isn't true considering R+L=J seems a sure thing, but we do know this rumor spread wide as both Catelyn and Cersei confronted Ned over Ashara and her possibly mothering Jon. It's also mentioned by Catelyn in AGOT that the staff/soldiers at Winterfell were gossiping about Ashara when Jon first arrived as a baby. So it seems safe to say that the rumors of Ashara/Ned have spread very far over Westeros.

Why this rumor got started…well, that’s a post for another time.

Truthfully, I don't think it was Ned that "dishonored" Ashara, nor that he was the Stark that she “looked to” at Harrenhal. I think it was Brandon Stark who took a tumble with her and got her pregnant.

I'll keep this part short, but as it feeds into my reasoning later, I'll just say that: 1) Barristan is old fashioned, so dishonoring could range anywhere from being seen kissing in public all the way to being raped. In this case, I think he's just referring to consensual out of wedlock sex that left Ashara pregnant and abandoned. 2) Barristan seems to work well with and think highly of Ned in AGOT. Would he have gotten on so well with the man who "dishonored" his precious Ashara? I think not. 3) Per Barbrey Dustin, Brandon was definitely the type to deflower maidens and not marry them. 4) Conversely, Ned really WASN'T that type. He was so shy Brandon had to ask Ashara to dance with him. To go from that to having sex/dishonoring her during those few days or weeks of the tournament? I don't buy it. 5) The Tourney at Harrenhal happened at an undefined point in 281 AC. Some time then passed and winter set back in. At the beginning of 282 AC Lyanna was kidnapped. At this point, Brandon seemed to have been travelling to meetup with his father's wedding party (for Brandon's wedding to Cat) somewhere between the North and Riverrun, so word would take time to travel to him of Lyanna's "abduction" as the phrasing around all this gives me the impression Lyanna was not with Brandon when this happened. So for Brandon to be informed, then turn around and go to KL, would take at least two or three weeks by my estimate if not longer. Then Rickard Stark and his entire wedding party of 200 men had to be informed and play catch up and get to KL, which was probably another few weeks. So what I'm saying is, from Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being murdered was probably a period from 4-10 months of length if not longer, depending on when Harrenhal happened in 281 AC. That's plenty of time for Ashara to realize she was pregnant and write to Ned and get themselves a shotgun wedding, if Ned indeed had been the one to do her dirty (and since Ashara didn’t get married—either the baby daddy didn’t want to OR he had a big-time betrothal that couldn’t be broken). 6) The Daynes seem to think well of Ned, and I don't see that happening if he got Ashara pregnant out of wedlock and then didn't marry her. 7) I don’t know why GRRM would mention a Stark being “looked to” if it meant jackall, and it was some third rando to get her pregnant. 

Now put a pin in all that while we go back to Barristan. While Ashara/Ned was widespread, no such rumor of the stillborn daughter seems to be anywhere in Westeros, so where and how did Barristan learn this information?

Barristan is the only person to mention that Ashara had a stillbirth. Edric Dayne didn't seem to know anything about it, and only said to Arya that:

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." (...) "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—"  - A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

So it seems the younger Dayne's knew nothing about the stillbirth. Perhaps Allyria kept it from Edric, or Edric was keeping this detail from Arya. But he was so tactless about it that I  doubt he would have spared Arya this detail. Additionally, Edric also seems to believe Wylla was Jon's mother, and if he knew about the stillbirth and yet didn't to connect it to Ned...all I'm saying is, Edric's reasoning is off if he knew about the stillborn girl and Ned/Ashara and came to the conclusions he did, so I don't think he knew anything about the baby.

Barristan Selmy is from one of the principal houses in the Stormlands before he became a Kingsguard, so Houses Selmy and Dayne aren't exactly close enough geographically or relations-wise to be swapping mortifying secrets like Ashara having an out-of-marriage stillbirth. The Dayne’s were stony Dornish, not nearly as liberal as the rest of Dorne, and I doubt they’d want this information to get around.

Also in reading the books, I can't find any indication that anyone knew of Barristan's crush on Ashara. So I can't conceive of any reason why Ashara or her brother Arthur, or any of the other Daynes would tell Barristan "oh by the way, Ashara had an out of wedlock stillbirth and surprise it's a girl". It just doesn’t make sense. Hell, even if they did know he had a crush, it doesn't make sense. That'd be a weird thing to share with a dude crushing on one of your family members.

So as I said above, there seemed a lot of rumors circulating around Ashara already, but this wasn't one of them. So Barristan had to have heard this information very close to the source as there was no rumor to carry it to him, which leaves the thing Barristan and Ashara shared: the Royal Family.

So how did Barristan Selmy know that Ashara had a stillborn daughter? He was there when she had the stillbirth.

After Harrenhal, it's known that Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia returned to Dragonstone where she then gave birth to Prince Aegon. Shortly afterwards at the beginning of 282 AC, Rhaegar, two Kingsguard, and a few other companions left to go kidnap/rescue/whatever the hell it was Rhaegar was doing with Lyanna. From this we now know that the Kingsguard didn't stay with Aerys 100% of the time, and that they traveled with other member’s of the Targaryen family.

Even with Rhaegar gone, that still left Princess Elia and the two “heirs of the heir” at Dragonstone, so I think it very likely that a third Kingsguard who traveled with the royal couple after Harrenhal was left to protect them. And I think that Kingsguard was Barristan.

Barristan wasn’t in Rhaegar’s trusted circle as evidenced by him not knowing about the Lyanna plot, but being Barristan the Bold he’s clearly dependable enough to entrust the Crown Prince’s wife and kids too. (And some part of me just really hopes that Rhaegar didn’t leave Elia completely hung out to dry when he absconded, but that’s just me.)

I scoured the books, but couldn’t find any indication of Barristan being there the day the Starks were strangled/burned by Aerys. We know Jaime and Gerold Hightower were there, and that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent weren’t, but for the other three it’s unknown. Barristan feels guilty about standing beside the Iron Throne and doing nothing while the madness happened. But considering the awful things Aerys did before Harrenhal and the many terrible things after, it’s hard to pin down just which of these horrors Barristan was around in-person to feel guilty about.

Elia was eventually called to King's Landing as a hostage during the Rebellion, for Aerys to ensure that Prince Lewyn led the forces of Dorne loyally for the Crown. But in the time between Lyanna being taken, Rickard & Brandon being murdered, and the banners being called—there was no reason for Elia to be in KL as the Rebellion hadn’t yet started. And since her giving birth to Rhaenys left her bedridden for six months, and Aegon’s birth was said to be even more traumatic, I believe both Elia and her lady-in-waiting Ashara remained on Dragonstone while the Princess recovered.

Now, whether Ashara hid her pregnancy, or Elia knew but allowed her to stay, or some third option happened I can’t really say. But for Barristan to know about thestillborn daughter without anybody else (even the younger Dayne’s!) knowing, I truly believe they had to be in the same place when it happened.

Pertinent note: in modern times, a miscarriage is considered to become a stillbirth once past the 20 week (5 month) mark. A fetus’s gender can become discernable by ultrasound at 18-22 weeks, though I believe it can be observed a few weeks earlier if there is a stillbirth.

As I said above, I believe anywhere from 4-10 months passed from Ashara becoming pregnant at Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being killed by the mad king. In this case, I think she was 5-7 months pregnant when news of their violent deaths reached Dragonstone (probably along with the demand that Elia come to King’s Landing). It’s likely from the sheer awfulness of hearing how the father of her baby was murdered, that Ashara went into premature labor which unfortunately ended in a stillbirth.

And since Barristan was there and would have come running at any word of his "fair lady" being ill, that’s how he found out about the baby it’s gender, and probably who the baby daddy was  from how distraught Ashara was over Brandon.

This was likely when Elia dismissed Ashara from her service and sent her home, which is how Ashara was in Dorne for a majority of the Rebellion, and also the reason why the dismissal's reasoning was so vague.

Now you're probably asking me, why didn’t the stillbirth become a rumor later on? I think Princess Elia, who probably came to care for Ashara in the time the girl was with her at court, covered it up and swore her household to secrecy. After this, Elia and said household had to return to KL, and I think between Aery’s predations and the later sack by Tywin, the entire household along with Elia were killed which stopped any rumor from ever spreading.

So to sum up: 1) between my belief that Brandon was the one to “dishonor” Ashara at Harrenhal and get her pregnant, 2) the probable time gap from Harrenhal to Brandon’s death being a good five months or more, 3) Ashara being dismissed for vague reasons and being in Dorne most of the Rebellion, 4) Barristan noting later on the she “mourned” the man who dishonored her, 5) no rumor ever forming about the stillbirth, 6) the younger Dayne’s not knowing of the stillbirth, 7) yet Barristan still somehow knowing it…he was there, and it happened on Dragonstone.

For why Ashara killed herself in 283 (probably more than 1-1.5 years after she lost the babe), that feeds into another favored theory of mine. With Ashara in Dorne and the Tower of Joy being near Starfall (and the Kingsguard likely trying to keep pregnant!Lyanna a secret), I think Ashara was ferrying news and supplies to the Tower. I also believe that once everything started going wrong for the Targaryens (Rhaegar dead, Elia and kids dead, Aerys gone, the last of the Targ-loyal banners lowering), that Ashara knew that they’d need help to hide baby!Jon & Lyanna in this newly hostile-to-Targs world. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to send word, maybe Ashara felt some obligation to Brandon, or maybe it was purely desperation, but I think Ashara wrote to Ned to tell him where Lyanna was in hopes he could offer assistance/asylum. Then she wrote her brother Arthur that Ned was coming. This is why neither group at the Tower seemed surprised when the throwdown happened.

But tragically, Ashara underestimated the aggression of both groups. From there I believe that dead daughter + dead lover + accidentally orchestrating her own brother’s death, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered her suicide.

As for why Barristan thought she killed herself for the lost child/lost lover year(s) after the fact, well, I don’t think he actually knew Ashara that well. He seemed to have her up on a pedestal. He always mentioned how beautiful Ashara was, but never any personality traits of what he actually admired about her. So like most people, Barristan just took the data points he had for Ashara dying (and the very traumatic thing he was there to witness) and extrapolated from there.

Though if anyone wants to use this weirdly long timeline to put another tickmark in the “Ashara faked her death” column, I’m not complaining.

 

Tl;dr Ashara’s baby daddy was Brandon Stark. She was on Dragonstone with Princess Elia and Barristan after the birth of Aegon via Elia. After hearing news of his Brandon’s death, out of grief/horror Ashara went into early labor and had a stillbirth. Barristan was there which is why he knows about the baby when no one else does.

Impressive first post and very welcome to the forum 

 

Its good stuff, although it doesn't sit as well for me as Ashara being dishonoured by Rhaegar or Aerys, getting pregnant with Dany.

Quote

He had only to close his eyes to see her, with her long dark hair tumbling about her shoulders and those haunting purple eyes. Daenerys has the same eyes. Sometimes when the queen looked at him, he felt as if he were looking at Ashara's daughter …

 

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

Thanks!  

2 hours ago, Sigella said:

Its good stuff, although it doesn't sit as well for me as Ashara being dishonoured by Rhaegar or Aerys, getting pregnant with Dany.

I've personally always seen Dany having a mother other than Rhaella as...sort of a thematic dead-end? I don't see what it adds to Dany's story. Her big thing is wrestling with being mother of dragons or mother of men, fire and blood vs. peace, the two sides of the coin, so on and so forth. And her suddenly having a different mother just adds clutter I don't see a larger point to. We're about 5 of 7 books in (if GRRM doesn't stretch it further to hurt us all), so Dany learning she's actually Rhaegar's daughter, or just had a different mother but is still by Aerys...adds what? Barristan is one of the few people left alive who knew Ashara, and he's already full team Dany, so I don't see how this changes actions any (only bad writers introduce plot threads/twists that don't affect story in a meaningful way). And for Dany, FAegon maybe being really Aegon, or Jon possibly being trueborn, is enough to contest her claim without also her ancestry abruptly coming into doubt.

Unless you think that Barristan knew she was Ashara's daughter, and that's part of why he went to her in Essos...?

Maybe there's some good thematic thread in R or A + Ashara = Dany here that I'm just missing. Why do you support Ashara being Dany's mum? What does it add to the themes and story for you? Genuinely curious what you think.

[kissdbyfire]

@Saint Alia of the Knife, seconding @Sigella‘s words, welcome to the forums!

I’ve finished reading the OP, but I’m confused about one thing... I must have missed something, and I’m feeling a tad lazy to reread everything at the mo.

I agree w/ you on a lot of things. I too think it was Brandon and Ashara who had a thing; I also firmly believe Dany is exactly who she - and characters and us - thinks she is, the daughter of Aerys and Rhaella. Basically for the reasons you’ve stated. 

And I like the idea of ser Barry being present when she had her stillbirth. But I don’t quite get what happens next, especially if she gave birth on Dragonstone. If I understood your OP correctly, you propose that after the stillbirth, brought on from learning of Brandon’s horrific murder, she returns to Starfall, and sends “messages” (ravens?) to both Ned Stark and Arthur Dayne, amd eventually takes her own life. Can you elaborate on this part a bit more? I may be missing something really obvious, but the old HD in my head is kinda dead.

 

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

No worries kissedbyfire! I may not have explained it very well. But easily mended...hopefully.

1 hour ago, kissdbyfire said:

And I like the idea of ser Barry being present when she had her stillbirth. But I don’t quite get what happens next, especially if she gave birth on Dragonstone. If I understood your OP correctly, you propose that after the stillbirth, brought on from learning of Brandon’s horrific murder, she returns to Starfall, and sends “messages” (ravens?) to both Ned Stark and Arthur Dayne, amd eventually takes her own life. Can you elaborate on this part a bit more?

I think that, roughly chronologically speaking:
 

1. Ashara had the still birth shortly after Brandon's death.

2. After a bit of recovery, Elia dismissed Ashara and sent her away from Dragonstone and back to Starfall.

3. At this point Robert's Rebellion is just kicking off. Ashara gets home after a few weeks of travel.

4. I honestly have no idea/opinion on when this happened precisely, but at some point Rhaegar, Lyanna, Arthur, and Oswell get to the Tower of Joy in Dorne. Maybe they were there before Ashara got to Starfall, maybe they got there after. 

5. Arthur Dayne contacts or goes to his sister at Starfall. She agrees to help them by sending supplies and whatever info she receives at Starfall to the Tower. Starfall has ravens, but I don't think they did at the Tower? So Ashara was their link to the outside world. And even if not, it can't hurt to have a second source of info and stuff.

6. Maybe Ashara goes to visit at the tower and gets to know Lyanna. GRRM did say something about Ashara's feet not being nailed to the floor at Starfall.

6. The rebellion keeps going on and lasts about a year. Ashara keeps funneling supplies and info. News of the loss at the Trident, Rhaegar's death, Aery's + Elia and the kids' deaths, the Sack all trickle back to Ashara.

7. Ashara panics. At this point, Rahegar's only kid (maybe his heir if trueborn?) is in a rinky-dink tower in Dorne. I don't think the Tower of Joy was a long-term solution. And with what happened to Elia, Dorne might be extremely hostile to Lyanna + Jon. Hard to say. But Ashara knows that Ned is defacto Warden of the North, loves his sister, that Lyanna loves him, etc. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to do this, maybe Ashara did it on her own. But she writes Ned to try and get the most powerful party they know, with the most resources and likely to have the greatest amount of connection/ sympathy to the situation, to get Lyanna and baby the hell out of dodge. After Ashara writes to Ned where Lyanna is, I think she then wrote Arthur as well/sent a messenger like "I told Ned Stark where you are, he's coming to help".

8. Ashara was wrong. Everyone but Jon + Ned + Howland dies. 

9. Ashara kills herself out of grief after Ned brings back her brother's sword to Starfall, and Ned leaves with Jon.

 

That's my interpretation, guesses, and supposition at least. Tell me if anything doesn't make sense though!

[Curled Finger]

Welcome, @Saint Alia of the Knife, that's quite an opening OP.  I enjoyed it thoroughly and appreciate the way you have connected A to B to C and so forth.   Not that I have a dog in any fight being fully convinced of R+L=J, I went along the same lines you traveled to reach your conclusions in a different place.   In that Barristan is the only one who seems to know about Ashara's stillborn child it is Howland Reed who details her dancing partners at Harrenhal.   I don't remember Ned having any resentment toward his brother.  On the contrary, he says Brandon would have known what to do and should have been the dude.   Seems to me that if Brandon, who asked Ashara to dance with his shy brother, had made a move on Ashara knowing Ned was interested in her...well, Ned wouldn't think so fondly of his brother???  I am certain of the many conspiracies you nicely fleshed out.  Barristan doesn't appear to have been in the loop with Rhaegar's plans and that's very interesting because Selmy speaks so highly of Rhaegar.  A little misdirection for a true knight to follow perhaps?  Smoke and mirrors that played on Barristan's desire for Ashara and perhaps jealousy of Ned or Brandon or Benjen or Lyanna for all we know, who may have dishonored his lady fair?   One thing you picked up on that is often ignored is the substantial time between Ashara's miscarriage and dive off the tower.   Personally and that means little, I think the suicide was just more smoke and mirrors for anyone who bothered to be interested.  I don't think she's dead at all, but it is probably much safer for her to be thought dead.   It has crossed my mind that maybe Selmy's statements are shown in contrast to Meera's story about her dad's adventures at Harrenhal.  The truth of Lady Ashara's presence in the story may never be solved or proven or revealed, but it sure is a juicy story.  It was good to read your thoughts and conclusions.   I look forward to your next topic. 

[Megorova]

9 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

 I don't remember Ned having any resentment toward his brother.  On the contrary, he says Brandon would have known what to do and should have been the dude.   Seems to me that if Brandon, who asked Ashara to dance with his shy brother, had made a move on Ashara knowing Ned was interested in her...well, Ned wouldn't think so fondly of his brother???  I am certain of the many conspiracies you nicely fleshed out.  Barristan doesn't appear to have been in the loop with Rhaegar's plans and that's very interesting because Selmy speaks so highly of Rhaegar. 

Rhaegar figured out that the Knight of the Laughing Tree was Lyanna Stark. So when he heard that Aerys ordered to his people to unmask the mystery knight, he sent Ashara to warn Lyanna about this. Lyanna used Howland's shield, painted on it a sigil of a laughing tree, and afterwards returned it to Howland's belongings. Howland was staying in Ned's tent, so someone saw that Ashara was going in or out of Ned Stark's tent in late evening or at night, and that someone thought that Ashara had a thing with Ned, that's how she was dishonored. Barristan knew the real reason why Ashara went to Ned's tent (to retrieve Howland's shield). Probably Barristan was hoping that Ashara will ask his assistance with retrieving that shield, instead Ashara went to ask help from Ned (who was Lyanna's brother, in whose tent was staying Howland Reed, and with whom Ashara danced several days ago). This explains why Ned wasn't resentful towards Brandon - he knew that nothing happened between Ashara and Brandon, that Brandon didn't cheated on Cat, and didn't dishonored Ashara. Also Ned because of this situation found out that there was something between Rhaegar and Lyanna, that's why he didn't resented Rhaegar after Lyanna's supposed kidnapping. This also explains why Barristan never resented Ned or Brandon, and why he thought that everything could have turned out differently if that night Ashara asked for his help instead of turning to a Stark.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

On 6/19/2020 at 7:28 PM, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

Warning: a lot of talk about stillbirths.

I think I may have a plausible answer to how Barristan knew about Ashara's stillborn girl when no one else seemingly does, but I'm curious what other people think.

When discussing this, people always seem to take the information that Ashara had stillbirth at face value, while not asking how Barristan could have come to know this, why nobody else in Westeros never mentioned it, or whether it’s even true. Though in this case, I’ll be assuming the stillbirth did happen for the purpose of this theory.

Note that Ashara was known to be a lady-in-waiting to the Princess Elia, and that she hadn't been long at court when the tourney at Harrenhal rolled around in 281 AC. It's also known that she was dismissed from Elia's service at an unknown time for unknown reasons, but it happened early enough that Ashara seems to have spent a significant amount of time in Dorne while the Rebellion was occurring.

Barristan is the first and only person to state that Ashara Dayne had a stillbirth in the books. Saying:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? -- A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

It seems rumors spread far and wide that Ned and Ashara may have had a thing at Harrenhal, and further, that Jon Snow was a possible result of this fling. We as the readers know this second part likely isn't true considering R+L=J seems a sure thing, but we do know this rumor spread wide as both Catelyn and Cersei confronted Ned over Ashara and her possibly mothering Jon. It's also mentioned by Catelyn in AGOT that the staff/soldiers at Winterfell were gossiping about Ashara when Jon first arrived as a baby. So it seems safe to say that the rumors of Ashara/Ned have spread very far over Westeros.

Why this rumor got started…well, that’s a post for another time.

Truthfully, I don't think it was Ned that "dishonored" Ashara, nor that he was the Stark that she “looked to” at Harrenhal. I think it was Brandon Stark who took a tumble with her and got her pregnant.

I'll keep this part short, but as it feeds into my reasoning later, I'll just say that: 1) Barristan is old fashioned, so dishonoring could range anywhere from being seen kissing in public all the way to being raped. In this case, I think he's just referring to consensual out of wedlock sex that left Ashara pregnant and abandoned. 2) Barristan seems to work well with and think highly of Ned in AGOT. Would he have gotten on so well with the man who "dishonored" his precious Ashara? I think not. 3) Per Barbrey Dustin, Brandon was definitely the type to deflower maidens and not marry them. 4) Conversely, Ned really WASN'T that type. He was so shy Brandon had to ask Ashara to dance with him. To go from that to having sex/dishonoring her during those few days or weeks of the tournament? I don't buy it. 5) The Tourney at Harrenhal happened at an undefined point in 281 AC. Some time then passed and winter set back in. At the beginning of 282 AC Lyanna was kidnapped. At this point, Brandon seemed to have been travelling to meetup with his father's wedding party (for Brandon's wedding to Cat) somewhere between the North and Riverrun, so word would take time to travel to him of Lyanna's "abduction" as the phrasing around all this gives me the impression Lyanna was not with Brandon when this happened. So for Brandon to be informed, then turn around and go to KL, would take at least two or three weeks by my estimate if not longer. Then Rickard Stark and his entire wedding party of 200 men had to be informed and play catch up and get to KL, which was probably another few weeks. So what I'm saying is, from Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being murdered was probably a period from 4-10 months of length if not longer, depending on when Harrenhal happened in 281 AC. That's plenty of time for Ashara to realize she was pregnant and write to Ned and get themselves a shotgun wedding, if Ned indeed had been the one to do her dirty (and since Ashara didn’t get married—either the baby daddy didn’t want to OR he had a big-time betrothal that couldn’t be broken). 6) The Daynes seem to think well of Ned, and I don't see that happening if he got Ashara pregnant out of wedlock and then didn't marry her. 7) I don’t know why GRRM would mention a Stark being “looked to” if it meant jackall, and it was some third rando to get her pregnant. 

Now put a pin in all that while we go back to Barristan. While Ashara/Ned was widespread, no such rumor of the stillborn daughter seems to be anywhere in Westeros, so where and how did Barristan learn this information?

Barristan is the only person to mention that Ashara had a stillbirth. Edric Dayne didn't seem to know anything about it, and only said to Arya that:

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." (...) "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—"  - A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

So it seems the younger Dayne's knew nothing about the stillbirth. Perhaps Allyria kept it from Edric, or Edric was keeping this detail from Arya. But he was so tactless about it that I  doubt he would have spared Arya this detail. Additionally, Edric also seems to believe Wylla was Jon's mother, and if he knew about the stillbirth and yet didn't to connect it to Ned...all I'm saying is, Edric's reasoning is off if he knew about the stillborn girl and Ned/Ashara and came to the conclusions he did, so I don't think he knew anything about the baby.

Barristan Selmy is from one of the principal houses in the Stormlands before he became a Kingsguard, so Houses Selmy and Dayne aren't exactly close enough geographically or relations-wise to be swapping mortifying secrets like Ashara having an out-of-marriage stillbirth. The Dayne’s were stony Dornish, not nearly as liberal as the rest of Dorne, and I doubt they’d want this information to get around.

Also in reading the books, I can't find any indication that anyone knew of Barristan's crush on Ashara. So I can't conceive of any reason why Ashara or her brother Arthur, or any of the other Daynes would tell Barristan "oh by the way, Ashara had an out of wedlock stillbirth and surprise it's a girl". It just doesn’t make sense. Hell, even if they did know he had a crush, it doesn't make sense. That'd be a weird thing to share with a dude crushing on one of your family members.

So as I said above, there seemed a lot of rumors circulating around Ashara already, but this wasn't one of them. So Barristan had to have heard this information very close to the source as there was no rumor to carry it to him, which leaves the thing Barristan and Ashara shared: the Royal Family.

So how did Barristan Selmy know that Ashara had a stillborn daughter? He was there when she had the stillbirth.

After Harrenhal, it's known that Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia returned to Dragonstone where she then gave birth to Prince Aegon. Shortly afterwards at the beginning of 282 AC, Rhaegar, two Kingsguard, and a few other companions left to go kidnap/rescue/whatever the hell it was Rhaegar was doing with Lyanna. From this we now know that the Kingsguard didn't stay with Aerys 100% of the time, and that they traveled with other member’s of the Targaryen family.

Even with Rhaegar gone, that still left Princess Elia and the two “heirs of the heir” at Dragonstone, so I think it very likely that a third Kingsguard who traveled with the royal couple after Harrenhal was left to protect them. And I think that Kingsguard was Barristan.

Barristan wasn’t in Rhaegar’s trusted circle as evidenced by him not knowing about the Lyanna plot, but being Barristan the Bold he’s clearly dependable enough to entrust the Crown Prince’s wife and kids too. (And some part of me just really hopes that Rhaegar didn’t leave Elia completely hung out to dry when he absconded, but that’s just me.)

I scoured the books, but couldn’t find any indication of Barristan being there the day the Starks were strangled/burned by Aerys. We know Jaime and Gerold Hightower were there, and that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent weren’t, but for the other three it’s unknown. Barristan feels guilty about standing beside the Iron Throne and doing nothing while the madness happened. But considering the awful things Aerys did before Harrenhal and the many terrible things after, it’s hard to pin down just which of these horrors Barristan was around in-person to feel guilty about.

Elia was eventually called to King's Landing as a hostage during the Rebellion, for Aerys to ensure that Prince Lewyn led the forces of Dorne loyally for the Crown. But in the time between Lyanna being taken, Rickard & Brandon being murdered, and the banners being called—there was no reason for Elia to be in KL as the Rebellion hadn’t yet started. And since her giving birth to Rhaenys left her bedridden for six months, and Aegon’s birth was said to be even more traumatic, I believe both Elia and her lady-in-waiting Ashara remained on Dragonstone while the Princess recovered.

Now, whether Ashara hid her pregnancy, or Elia knew but allowed her to stay, or some third option happened I can’t really say. But for Barristan to know about thestillborn daughter without anybody else (even the younger Dayne’s!) knowing, I truly believe they had to be in the same place when it happened.

Pertinent note: in modern times, a miscarriage is considered to become a stillbirth once past the 20 week (5 month) mark. A fetus’s gender can become discernable by ultrasound at 18-22 weeks, though I believe it can be observed a few weeks earlier if there is a stillbirth.

As I said above, I believe anywhere from 4-10 months passed from Ashara becoming pregnant at Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being killed by the mad king. In this case, I think she was 5-7 months pregnant when news of their violent deaths reached Dragonstone (probably along with the demand that Elia come to King’s Landing). It’s likely from the sheer awfulness of hearing how the father of her baby was murdered, that Ashara went into premature labor which unfortunately ended in a stillbirth.

And since Barristan was there and would have come running at any word of his "fair lady" being ill, that’s how he found out about the baby it’s gender, and probably who the baby daddy was  from how distraught Ashara was over Brandon.

This was likely when Elia dismissed Ashara from her service and sent her home, which is how Ashara was in Dorne for a majority of the Rebellion, and also the reason why the dismissal's reasoning was so vague.

Now you're probably asking me, why didn’t the stillbirth become a rumor later on? I think Princess Elia, who probably came to care for Ashara in the time the girl was with her at court, covered it up and swore her household to secrecy. After this, Elia and said household had to return to KL, and I think between Aery’s predations and the later sack by Tywin, the entire household along with Elia were killed which stopped any rumor from ever spreading.

So to sum up: 1) between my belief that Brandon was the one to “dishonor” Ashara at Harrenhal and get her pregnant, 2) the probable time gap from Harrenhal to Brandon’s death being a good five months or more, 3) Ashara being dismissed for vague reasons and being in Dorne most of the Rebellion, 4) Barristan noting later on the she “mourned” the man who dishonored her, 5) no rumor ever forming about the stillbirth, 6) the younger Dayne’s not knowing of the stillbirth, 7) yet Barristan still somehow knowing it…he was there, and it happened on Dragonstone.

For why Ashara killed herself in 283 (probably more than 1-1.5 years after she lost the babe), that feeds into another favored theory of mine. With Ashara in Dorne and the Tower of Joy being near Starfall (and the Kingsguard likely trying to keep pregnant!Lyanna a secret), I think Ashara was ferrying news and supplies to the Tower. I also believe that once everything started going wrong for the Targaryens (Rhaegar dead, Elia and kids dead, Aerys gone, the last of the Targ-loyal banners lowering), that Ashara knew that they’d need help to hide baby!Jon & Lyanna in this newly hostile-to-Targs world. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to send word, maybe Ashara felt some obligation to Brandon, or maybe it was purely desperation, but I think Ashara wrote to Ned to tell him where Lyanna was in hopes he could offer assistance/asylum. Then she wrote her brother Arthur that Ned was coming. This is why neither group at the Tower seemed surprised when the throwdown happened.

But tragically, Ashara underestimated the aggression of both groups. From there I believe that dead daughter + dead lover + accidentally orchestrating her own brother’s death, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered her suicide.

As for why Barristan thought she killed herself for the lost child/lost lover year(s) after the fact, well, I don’t think he actually knew Ashara that well. He seemed to have her up on a pedestal. He always mentioned how beautiful Ashara was, but never any personality traits of what he actually admired about her. So like most people, Barristan just took the data points he had for Ashara dying (and the very traumatic thing he was there to witness) and extrapolated from there.

Though if anyone wants to use this weirdly long timeline to put another tickmark in the “Ashara faked her death” column, I’m not complaining.

 

Tl;dr Ashara’s baby daddy was Brandon Stark. She was on Dragonstone with Princess Elia and Barristan after the birth of Aegon via Elia. After hearing news of his Brandon’s death, out of grief/horror Ashara went into early labor and had a stillbirth. Barristan was there which is why he knows about the baby when no one else does.

"Seems a sure thing" is about as opposite an accurate description of RLJ's status as it can get. We absolutely do not know whether NAJ is true or false. 

It is certainly possible the minimum requirement for RLJ was met. That Rhaegar and Lyanna had enough time together to have sex once. But it is far from a sure thing. What RLJ has going for it is they were both missing, rumors of kidnap and...intercourse, Rhaegar crowning Lyanna QOLAB and this: 

The king touched her cheek, his fingers brushing across the rough stone as gently as if it were living flesh. “I vowed to kill Rhaegar for what he did to her.”

“You did,” Ned reminded him.
“Only once,” Robert said bitterly.

Any addons to the theory, like Lyanna was KOTLT or KG guarding Jon at TOJ or Jon is legitimate Targaryen heir, etc...well it gets extremely problematic. 

How could the people you place at the TOJ have managed to have stayed there without ever being discovered? Swearing everyone to secrecy to advance your theory is hardly realistic. Nobody wondered why Ashara kept going back to the same location? The Dornish army didn't send out any scouts when they were going through the Boneway and the Prince's Pass? The TOJ scenario not being discovered is as completely unrealistic. Rhaegar and Lyanna might as well have walked into the Captain of the Guards chapter and started splashing around in the pool and throwing the oranges at Areo, while expecting to not be noticed.

[Sigella]

16 hours ago, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

Thanks!  

I've personally always seen Dany having a mother other than Rhaella as...sort of a thematic dead-end? I don't see what it adds to Dany's story. Her big thing is wrestling with being mother of dragons or mother of men, fire and blood vs. peace, the two sides of the coin, so on and so forth. And her suddenly having a different mother just adds clutter I don't see a larger point to. We're about 5 of 7 books in (if GRRM doesn't stretch it further to hurt us all), so Dany learning she's actually Rhaegar's daughter, or just had a different mother but is still by Aerys...adds what? Barristan is one of the few people left alive who knew Ashara, and he's already full team Dany, so I don't see how this changes actions any (only bad writers introduce plot threads/twists that don't affect story in a meaningful way). And for Dany, FAegon maybe being really Aegon, or Jon possibly being trueborn, is enough to contest her claim without also her ancestry abruptly coming into doubt.

Unless you think that Barristan knew she was Ashara's daughter, and that's part of why he went to her in Essos...?

Maybe there's some good thematic thread in R or A + Ashara = Dany here that I'm just missing. Why do you support Ashara being Dany's mum? What does it add to the themes and story for you? Genuinely curious what you think.

Oh there’s been threads on the matter and Im fully aware most people disagree, so I dont expect anyone to join my bandwagon

I base it off the qoute up above, its so strongly worded and its pretty sneakingly placed, in between musings about the tourney at Harranhall and stuff on Rhaegar, so that makes me suspicious.

Also it meshes with lemongate, Viserys habit of beating the identity into Dany growing up and possibly Rhaegars 3 heads-obsession as well as all the mysteries around Ashara and the Daynes.

It would however need a third baby swap as well as Viserys co-operation and him keeping his mouth shut (or if he wasn’t aware) so I get it seems stretchy but I argue that if this is GRRMs plan he will write it as elegantly as everything else.

[Willam Stark]

On 6/20/2020 at 6:55 PM, U. B. Cool said:

I am open to B + L = J but the family that has a greater chance of being true is N + A = J.

OMG the worst theory I've ever seen, is it a kind of contest ?

@Saint Alia of the Knife interesting theory, it seems very likely since we don't know when she had the stillbirth.

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

@Curled Finger Thanks, I did try to keep a pretty clear through-line on everything. And happy to be here!

18 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

I don't remember Ned having any resentment toward his brother.

I do recall in the books that Ned said in a certain passafe:

 

"Gods, Catelyn, Sansa is only eleven," Ned said. "And Joffrey … Joffrey is …"

 

She finished for him. "… crown prince, and heir to the Iron Throne. And I was only twelve when my father promised me to your brother Brandon."

 

That brought a bitter twist to Ned's mouth. "Brandon. Yes. Brandon would know what to do. He always did. It was all meant for Brandon. You, Winterfell, everything. He was born to be a King's Hand and a father to queens. I never asked for this cup to pass to me." - A Game of Thrones - Catelyn II

 

Ned was clearly bitter over something, but admittedly besides hearing that Brandon liked the ladies and was hotheaded, we don't honestly know that much of his personality. Ned just having one dance with Ashara, and maybe a crush...but I don't know if that would have stopped Brandon from swooping in or not.

 

Also, Ned was friends with Bobby B, and Bobby B was a dick. And Ned stayed loyal to him to the bitter end. Ned could be doing the same for Brandon despite any misteps on his brother's part.

 

18 hours ago, Curled Finger said:

Personally and that means little, I think the suicide was just more smoke and mirrors for anyone who bothered to be interested.  I don't think she's dead at all, but it is probably much safer for her to be thought dead.

 

Admittedly, I only put Ashara in the "she's dead" column because I can't think of anything she'd substantially add to the story if she turned up alive. If she's with FAegon, she should have just showed up with FAegon instead of smoke and mirrors. We're running closer to the end than not by now, so she'd have to be bringing something really juicy or thematically interesting to the table for GRRM to conjure her up. But that's just how I feel about it.

 

@Megorova

9 hours ago, Megorova said:

So when he heard that Aerys ordered to his people to unmask the mystery knight, he sent Ashara to warn Lyanna about this. Lyanna used Howland's shield, painted on it a sigil of a laughing tree, and afterwards returned it to Howland's belongings.

Wow, that's a really interesting theory I've never heard before. It does fit the facts really well that Ashara might have been working with Ned to help Lyanna. Though that brings me to the question of how do you think Ashara's stillbirth came about? Or do you think it was faked/a cover up? Just curious, you've got some really interesting thoughts here.

 

Hi @QhorinQuarterhand

8 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

"Seems a sure thing" is about as opposite an accurate description of RLJ's status as it can get. We absolutely do not know whether NAJ is true or false.

I know people don't like the show so much, but D&D got the job because they guessed who's Jon mother was, and it was Lyanna in the show. Also, GRRM has so much Targaryen and winter rose foreshadowing hanging on Jon at this point, it's been a neon sign over Jon's head since the days of AGOT who he really is. GRRM isn't going to zig just because the big secret is out now, and he's very against changing the end product just because people correctly picked up on the foreshadowing. So yeah. It's a sure thing to me, and my mind's not changing on that.

 

8 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

How could the people you place at the TOJ have managed to have stayed there without ever being discovered? Swearing everyone to secrecy to advance your theory is hardly realistic. Nobody wondered why Ashara kept going back to the same location? The Dornish army didn't send out any scouts when they were going through the Boneway and the Prince's Pass? The TOJ scenario not being discovered is as completely unrealistic. Rhaegar and Lyanna might as well have walked into the Captain of the Guards chapter and started splashing around in the pool and throwing the oranges at Areo, while expecting to not be noticed.

The Tower of Joy was located at the north end of the Prince's Pass, and is small enough that only a few people could tear the whole thing down to build cairns, that's literally all we know about it. And it's not like the KG there were inviting every Tom, Dick, and Harry who walked by it to come in and see who was there. So yeah, it was a few months, so fairly easy to stay there and avoid too much contact with outsiders. Especially if it was set far back from any road.

The people who knew Ashara was going to the TOJ were members of the Dayne household, and it's not like the KG being there stayed secret forever. After Ned & Co and the Kingsguard fought, where the KG and Lyanna were stopped being a secret to the entire realm.

And yeah, I think the household could have kept pretty quiet and where Arthur was for a few months while sending him supplies. This isn't some huge hurdle to clear in my opinion.

Did the Dornish army send scouts through the pass? Probably. But we don't know where in the pass the tower is besides North, it might be in a weird or hard to get to spot that got bypassed, or was out of the range of scouts. Scouts are looking for enemy forces and resources, they're not beating down the door of every tower they go by. Also, none of the Dorne chapters in the book mention the whereabouts of KG + Lyanna being known earlier, so with no proof it was known, I'm disinclined to believe that the army that passed through came in contact with them.

You say the TOJ being undiscovered is completely unrealistic...and yet canonically we only have the Rhaegar group, Gerold Hightower, and Ned & Co ever finding their way there. So you say it's unrealistic...then give me proof other people found it.

Also, Dorne is plenty big. There's plenty of places for them to hide? You're acting like the Martells are omniscient and know what is going on in every square inch of their country  every minute of the day. As if there are no places to hide or lay low. I'm going to have to disagree with you there.

 

@Sigella Fair enough! I always thought that thinking of Dany as being like Ashara's daughter, was more that Barristan saw Ashara as the best woman he knew and is held as a figure of goodness in his heart. So he compares any woman that he sees goodness in back to Ashara. Also I think the Dayne's have some Valyrian in them? So that might help too. But it's also a very eye-catching line, so I definitely understand how you got to where you are on ? + A = D.

 

@William Stark Thank you. The stillbirth always had me scratching my head, so I did my best to pin it down a little more. Glad you enjoyed it.

 

[Davjos]

22 hours ago, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

No worries kissedbyfire! I may not have explained it very well. But easily mended...hopefully.

I think that, roughly chronologically speaking:
 

1. Ashara had the still birth shortly after Brandon's death.

2. After a bit of recovery, Elia dismissed Ashara and sent her away from Dragonstone and back to Starfall.

3. At this point Robert's Rebellion is just kicking off. Ashara gets home after a few weeks of travel.

4. I honestly have no idea/opinion on when this happened precisely, but at some point Rhaegar, Lyanna, Arthur, and Oswell get to the Tower of Joy in Dorne. Maybe they were there before Ashara got to Starfall, maybe they got there after. 

5. Arthur Dayne contacts or goes to his sister at Starfall. She agrees to help them by sending supplies and whatever info she receives at Starfall to the Tower. Starfall has ravens, but I don't think they did at the Tower? So Ashara was their link to the outside world. And even if not, it can't hurt to have a second source of info and stuff.

6. Maybe Ashara goes to visit at the tower and gets to know Lyanna. GRRM did say something about Ashara's feet not being nailed to the floor at Starfall.

6. The rebellion keeps going on and lasts about a year. Ashara keeps funneling supplies and info. News of the loss at the Trident, Rhaegar's death, Aery's + Elia and the kids' deaths, the Sack all trickle back to Ashara.

7. Ashara panics. At this point, Rahegar's only kid (maybe his heir if trueborn?) is in a rinky-dink tower in Dorne. I don't think the Tower of Joy was a long-term solution. And with what happened to Elia, Dorne might be extremely hostile to Lyanna + Jon. Hard to say. But Ashara knows that Ned is defacto Warden of the North, loves his sister, that Lyanna loves him, etc. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to do this, maybe Ashara did it on her own. But she writes Ned to try and get the most powerful party they know, with the most resources and likely to have the greatest amount of connection/ sympathy to the situation, to get Lyanna and baby the hell out of dodge. After Ashara writes to Ned where Lyanna is, I think she then wrote Arthur as well/sent a messenger like "I told Ned Stark where you are, he's coming to help".

8. Ashara was wrong. Everyone but Jon + Ned + Howland dies. 

9. Ashara kills herself out of grief after Ned brings back her brother's sword to Starfall, and Ned leaves with Jon.

 

That's my interpretation, guesses, and supposition at least. Tell me if anything doesn't make sense though!

I really enjoy your take in the OP regarding both Barristan being present at the stillbirth and Ashara killing herself as a reaction to leading Ned to the ToJ. Well written first post!

two things raise additional questions for me:

1. Barristan thinks Ashara threw herself of the tower ‘soon after’ the stillbirth and implies (IMO) a believed causal relationship. If there was a year of rebellion between both, wouldnt he think she did it for other reasons, such as Arthur’s death. 
2. I don’t think your point under 7 above is 100% accurate, as I interpret the fever dream as Ned arriving close to the birth of Jon and Lyana dying from the complications. This means she couldn’t be motivated by the born heir, as sending a raven to Storms End (and knowing where to send one) and then Ned travelling to the ToJ takes some time. Of course she could know that Lyanna was pregnant and, being Dornish, not care as much whether the heir is male/female and send for Ned in help anyway. 

[Texas Hold Em]

On 6/19/2020 at 10:28 PM, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

Warning: a lot of talk about stillbirths.

I think I may have a plausible answer to how Barristan knew about Ashara's stillborn girl when no one else seemingly does, but I'm curious what other people think.

When discussing this, people always seem to take the information that Ashara had stillbirth at face value, while not asking how Barristan could have come to know this, why nobody else in Westeros never mentioned it, or whether it’s even true. Though in this case, I’ll be assuming the stillbirth did happen for the purpose of this theory.

Note that Ashara was known to be a lady-in-waiting to the Princess Elia, and that she hadn't been long at court when the tourney at Harrenhal rolled around in 281 AC. It's also known that she was dismissed from Elia's service at an unknown time for unknown reasons, but it happened early enough that Ashara seems to have spent a significant amount of time in Dorne while the Rebellion was occurring.

Barristan is the first and only person to state that Ashara Dayne had a stillbirth in the books. Saying:

But Ashara's daughter had been stillborn, and his fair lady had thrown herself from a tower soon after, mad with grief for the child she had lost, and perhaps for the man who had dishonored her at Harrenhal as well. She died never knowing that Ser Barristan had loved her. How could she? He was a knight of the Kingsguard, sworn to celibacy. No good could have come from telling her his feelings. No good came from silence either. If I had unhorsed Rhaegar and crowned Ashara queen of love and beauty, might she have looked to me instead of Stark? -- A Dance with Dragons - The Kingbreaker

It seems rumors spread far and wide that Ned and Ashara may have had a thing at Harrenhal, and further, that Jon Snow was a possible result of this fling. We as the readers know this second part likely isn't true considering R+L=J seems a sure thing, but we do know this rumor spread wide as both Catelyn and Cersei confronted Ned over Ashara and her possibly mothering Jon. It's also mentioned by Catelyn in AGOT that the staff/soldiers at Winterfell were gossiping about Ashara when Jon first arrived as a baby. So it seems safe to say that the rumors of Ashara/Ned have spread very far over Westeros.

Why this rumor got started…well, that’s a post for another time.

Truthfully, I don't think it was Ned that "dishonored" Ashara, nor that he was the Stark that she “looked to” at Harrenhal. I think it was Brandon Stark who took a tumble with her and got her pregnant.

I'll keep this part short, but as it feeds into my reasoning later, I'll just say that: 1) Barristan is old fashioned, so dishonoring could range anywhere from being seen kissing in public all the way to being raped. In this case, I think he's just referring to consensual out of wedlock sex that left Ashara pregnant and abandoned. 2) Barristan seems to work well with and think highly of Ned in AGOT. Would he have gotten on so well with the man who "dishonored" his precious Ashara? I think not. 3) Per Barbrey Dustin, Brandon was definitely the type to deflower maidens and not marry them. 4) Conversely, Ned really WASN'T that type. He was so shy Brandon had to ask Ashara to dance with him. To go from that to having sex/dishonoring her during those few days or weeks of the tournament? I don't buy it. 5) The Tourney at Harrenhal happened at an undefined point in 281 AC. Some time then passed and winter set back in. At the beginning of 282 AC Lyanna was kidnapped. At this point, Brandon seemed to have been travelling to meetup with his father's wedding party (for Brandon's wedding to Cat) somewhere between the North and Riverrun, so word would take time to travel to him of Lyanna's "abduction" as the phrasing around all this gives me the impression Lyanna was not with Brandon when this happened. So for Brandon to be informed, then turn around and go to KL, would take at least two or three weeks by my estimate if not longer. Then Rickard Stark and his entire wedding party of 200 men had to be informed and play catch up and get to KL, which was probably another few weeks. So what I'm saying is, from Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being murdered was probably a period from 4-10 months of length if not longer, depending on when Harrenhal happened in 281 AC. That's plenty of time for Ashara to realize she was pregnant and write to Ned and get themselves a shotgun wedding, if Ned indeed had been the one to do her dirty (and since Ashara didn’t get married—either the baby daddy didn’t want to OR he had a big-time betrothal that couldn’t be broken). 6) The Daynes seem to think well of Ned, and I don't see that happening if he got Ashara pregnant out of wedlock and then didn't marry her. 7) I don’t know why GRRM would mention a Stark being “looked to” if it meant jackall, and it was some third rando to get her pregnant. 

Now put a pin in all that while we go back to Barristan. While Ashara/Ned was widespread, no such rumor of the stillborn daughter seems to be anywhere in Westeros, so where and how did Barristan learn this information?

Barristan is the only person to mention that Ashara had a stillbirth. Edric Dayne didn't seem to know anything about it, and only said to Arya that:

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born." (...) "My aunt Allyria says Lady Ashara and your father fell in love at Harrenhal—"  - A Storm of Swords - Arya VIII

So it seems the younger Dayne's knew nothing about the stillbirth. Perhaps Allyria kept it from Edric, or Edric was keeping this detail from Arya. But he was so tactless about it that I  doubt he would have spared Arya this detail. Additionally, Edric also seems to believe Wylla was Jon's mother, and if he knew about the stillbirth and yet didn't to connect it to Ned...all I'm saying is, Edric's reasoning is off if he knew about the stillborn girl and Ned/Ashara and came to the conclusions he did, so I don't think he knew anything about the baby.

Barristan Selmy is from one of the principal houses in the Stormlands before he became a Kingsguard, so Houses Selmy and Dayne aren't exactly close enough geographically or relations-wise to be swapping mortifying secrets like Ashara having an out-of-marriage stillbirth. The Dayne’s were stony Dornish, not nearly as liberal as the rest of Dorne, and I doubt they’d want this information to get around.

Also in reading the books, I can't find any indication that anyone knew of Barristan's crush on Ashara. So I can't conceive of any reason why Ashara or her brother Arthur, or any of the other Daynes would tell Barristan "oh by the way, Ashara had an out of wedlock stillbirth and surprise it's a girl". It just doesn’t make sense. Hell, even if they did know he had a crush, it doesn't make sense. That'd be a weird thing to share with a dude crushing on one of your family members.

So as I said above, there seemed a lot of rumors circulating around Ashara already, but this wasn't one of them. So Barristan had to have heard this information very close to the source as there was no rumor to carry it to him, which leaves the thing Barristan and Ashara shared: the Royal Family.

So how did Barristan Selmy know that Ashara had a stillborn daughter? He was there when she had the stillbirth.

After Harrenhal, it's known that Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia returned to Dragonstone where she then gave birth to Prince Aegon. Shortly afterwards at the beginning of 282 AC, Rhaegar, two Kingsguard, and a few other companions left to go kidnap/rescue/whatever the hell it was Rhaegar was doing with Lyanna. From this we now know that the Kingsguard didn't stay with Aerys 100% of the time, and that they traveled with other member’s of the Targaryen family.

Even with Rhaegar gone, that still left Princess Elia and the two “heirs of the heir” at Dragonstone, so I think it very likely that a third Kingsguard who traveled with the royal couple after Harrenhal was left to protect them. And I think that Kingsguard was Barristan.

Barristan wasn’t in Rhaegar’s trusted circle as evidenced by him not knowing about the Lyanna plot, but being Barristan the Bold he’s clearly dependable enough to entrust the Crown Prince’s wife and kids too. (And some part of me just really hopes that Rhaegar didn’t leave Elia completely hung out to dry when he absconded, but that’s just me.)

I scoured the books, but couldn’t find any indication of Barristan being there the day the Starks were strangled/burned by Aerys. We know Jaime and Gerold Hightower were there, and that Arthur Dayne and Oswell Whent weren’t, but for the other three it’s unknown. Barristan feels guilty about standing beside the Iron Throne and doing nothing while the madness happened. But considering the awful things Aerys did before Harrenhal and the many terrible things after, it’s hard to pin down just which of these horrors Barristan was around in-person to feel guilty about.

Elia was eventually called to King's Landing as a hostage during the Rebellion, for Aerys to ensure that Prince Lewyn led the forces of Dorne loyally for the Crown. But in the time between Lyanna being taken, Rickard & Brandon being murdered, and the banners being called—there was no reason for Elia to be in KL as the Rebellion hadn’t yet started. And since her giving birth to Rhaenys left her bedridden for six months, and Aegon’s birth was said to be even more traumatic, I believe both Elia and her lady-in-waiting Ashara remained on Dragonstone while the Princess recovered.

Now, whether Ashara hid her pregnancy, or Elia knew but allowed her to stay, or some third option happened I can’t really say. But for Barristan to know about thestillborn daughter without anybody else (even the younger Dayne’s!) knowing, I truly believe they had to be in the same place when it happened.

Pertinent note: in modern times, a miscarriage is considered to become a stillbirth once past the 20 week (5 month) mark. A fetus’s gender can become discernable by ultrasound at 18-22 weeks, though I believe it can be observed a few weeks earlier if there is a stillbirth.

As I said above, I believe anywhere from 4-10 months passed from Ashara becoming pregnant at Harrenhal to Brandon & Rickard being killed by the mad king. In this case, I think she was 5-7 months pregnant when news of their violent deaths reached Dragonstone (probably along with the demand that Elia come to King’s Landing). It’s likely from the sheer awfulness of hearing how the father of her baby was murdered, that Ashara went into premature labor which unfortunately ended in a stillbirth.

And since Barristan was there and would have come running at any word of his "fair lady" being ill, that’s how he found out about the baby it’s gender, and probably who the baby daddy was  from how distraught Ashara was over Brandon.

This was likely when Elia dismissed Ashara from her service and sent her home, which is how Ashara was in Dorne for a majority of the Rebellion, and also the reason why the dismissal's reasoning was so vague.

Now you're probably asking me, why didn’t the stillbirth become a rumor later on? I think Princess Elia, who probably came to care for Ashara in the time the girl was with her at court, covered it up and swore her household to secrecy. After this, Elia and said household had to return to KL, and I think between Aery’s predations and the later sack by Tywin, the entire household along with Elia were killed which stopped any rumor from ever spreading.

So to sum up: 1) between my belief that Brandon was the one to “dishonor” Ashara at Harrenhal and get her pregnant, 2) the probable time gap from Harrenhal to Brandon’s death being a good five months or more, 3) Ashara being dismissed for vague reasons and being in Dorne most of the Rebellion, 4) Barristan noting later on the she “mourned” the man who dishonored her, 5) no rumor ever forming about the stillbirth, 6) the younger Dayne’s not knowing of the stillbirth, 7) yet Barristan still somehow knowing it…he was there, and it happened on Dragonstone.

For why Ashara killed herself in 283 (probably more than 1-1.5 years after she lost the babe), that feeds into another favored theory of mine. With Ashara in Dorne and the Tower of Joy being near Starfall (and the Kingsguard likely trying to keep pregnant!Lyanna a secret), I think Ashara was ferrying news and supplies to the Tower. I also believe that once everything started going wrong for the Targaryens (Rhaegar dead, Elia and kids dead, Aerys gone, the last of the Targ-loyal banners lowering), that Ashara knew that they’d need help to hide baby!Jon & Lyanna in this newly hostile-to-Targs world. Maybe Lyanna convinced Ashara to send word, maybe Ashara felt some obligation to Brandon, or maybe it was purely desperation, but I think Ashara wrote to Ned to tell him where Lyanna was in hopes he could offer assistance/asylum. Then she wrote her brother Arthur that Ned was coming. This is why neither group at the Tower seemed surprised when the throwdown happened.

But tragically, Ashara underestimated the aggression of both groups. From there I believe that dead daughter + dead lover + accidentally orchestrating her own brother’s death, was the straw that broke the camel’s back and triggered her suicide.

As for why Barristan thought she killed herself for the lost child/lost lover year(s) after the fact, well, I don’t think he actually knew Ashara that well. He seemed to have her up on a pedestal. He always mentioned how beautiful Ashara was, but never any personality traits of what he actually admired about her. So like most people, Barristan just took the data points he had for Ashara dying (and the very traumatic thing he was there to witness) and extrapolated from there.

Though if anyone wants to use this weirdly long timeline to put another tickmark in the “Ashara faked her death” column, I’m not complaining.

 

Tl;dr Ashara’s baby daddy was Brandon Stark. She was on Dragonstone with Princess Elia and Barristan after the birth of Aegon via Elia. After hearing news of his Brandon’s death, out of grief/horror Ashara went into early labor and had a stillbirth. Barristan was there which is why he knows about the baby when no one else does.

I enjoyed your essay.  I suppose it might be that was the chain of events.  Otoh, me thinks there is no story there.  Everybody in the court of the king knew.  Ashara was a member of the court at the capital as was Barristan.  They orbited around the same people.  He would know if the child was born dead.  The news came to him as he healed from his battle injuries.  Barristan was badly injured around this time.  He was delivered the news while recovering in his bed.  

On 6/20/2020 at 3:18 PM, Big P said:

Ser Barristan was attracted to Lady Ashara.  He knew she had sex at Harrenhal.  It is only natural for him to keep up with her life after that.  He had the means to collect information coming from Starfall because of his lofty office.  He could have had a servant working for him in Starfall if he had wanted to.  It is easy enough to command a serving person to ride to Starfall and bring him news.  

yes

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

@Davjos Thanks, I'm glad you liked it. To address your points:

1. If Ashara was the one to lead Ned to the TOJ, Barristan may not know that, and therefore wouldn't be able to factor that guilt into her suicide. Flawed POVs and all. I mentioned this a bit above too, but since I believe Barristan never saw Ashara again after the stillbirth, but heard that she killed herself--he just went with what he knew to explain why she committed suicide. Though I too do think it's a bit weird that Barristan never factored Arthur's death into it. Ashara jumping off the tower really seems to be a response to THAT more than anything. Perhaps Barristan didn't know her very well. He may think himself in love, but I'm more of the opinion his was a very surface level infatuation that got elevated by her death. But that last part is really my two cents.

2. Okay admittedly I don't know when Jon was born. I've seen a LOT of conflicting info on that. I too believe that Jon was born either days before or the day of Ned arriving. Otherwise, why is Ned so traumatized by the bed of blood?? But GRRM has said some bizzare things like Dany is 8-9 months younger than Jon. Which would put her conception AFTER Aerys was dead, or means that Aerys fucked Rhaella literally the day before he sent her from KL; and that the sack, the ending of the siege of Storm's End, and Ned travelling all the way to Dorne happened inside of a month. Anyways, I think Ashara knew Lyanna was pregnant, so she could have just been motivated by the impending birth. I think the KG honestly got stuck at the Tower; once all the bad news started arriving, I think they may have been needing to make plans to actually flee somewhere, but they were stuck because Lyanna was well into the 3rd trimester at the point and it wasn't safe for her or the baby in her belly to travel. Maybe they needed somewhere to get Lyanna + baby too to be safe, which is why Ashara wrote Ned.

[Saint Alia of the Knife]

3 minutes ago, Texas Hold Em said:

Otoh, me thinks there is no story there.  Everybody in the court of the king knew.  Ashara was a member of the court at the capital as was Barristan.  They orbited around the same people.  He would know if the child was born dead. 

Hi! Glad you enjoyed the essay even if you don't much agree with it.

 

To the above, I don't believe that at all. Cersei, staff at Winterfell, and Catelyn all thought Ashara was a real possibility as Jon's mum--and the stillbirth really squashes that possibility. So the stillbirth couldn't have been a rumor. And pointblank I refuse to believe that a beautiful, young, eligible figure like Ashara having a stillbirth outside marriage isn't worth gossiping about. If everyone at court knew, we wouldn't have had to wait until the fifth book to find out about it. It would have come up much sooner somewhere.

Buuuuuuuuuut that's just me.

[Megorova]

17 hours ago, Saint Alia of the Knife said:

Though that brings me to the question of how do you think Ashara's stillbirth came about? Or do you think it was faked/a cover up? Just curious, you've got some really interesting thoughts here.

It's all pure speculations on my part, I could be totally wrong about all this. I think that Elia lied to her entorage about the reason why Ashara left her court, that she was supposedly pregnant, and later supposedly had a stillbirth. The real reason why Ashara was sent away, is because she was very needed elsewhere.

I think that Rhaegar didn't kidnapped Lyanna, that they loved each other, and she went with him willingly. Furthermore, they planned her escape beforehand. She didn't wanted to marry with Robert, and her traveling to Riverrun, to attend Brandon and Catelyn's wedding, was the last opportunity for her to get away from unwanted marriage.

When Rhaegar "kidnapped" Lyanna, amongst people that were with him, was Ashara and Arthur. For propriety's sake, until Rhaegar and Lyanna were wed, Ashara served a role of Lyanna's chaperone. Because it's not appropriate for a lady to be alone amongst men (who are not her relatives, not her husband, not her bannermen or retainers or servants). Though it was appropriate for Ashara to be with Rhaegar and his other people, because her brother Arthur was amongst those people, so he was her chaperone.

I think that after the "kidnapping" Rhaegar and Lyanna went to Starfall. And that's where Ned later found Lyanna dying in a bed of blood. That's where was born new Azor Ahai, under the bleeding stars at Starfall. A bit of off-topic, my reasons why Starfall, and not the Tower of Joy, as the place of Jon's birth and Lyanna's death:

Spoiler

There are hints that Jon was conceived at Starfall on Christmas Eve.

There are many Biblical elements in ASOIAF. Azor Ahai/Jon/Dany/Rhaego are parallels to Jesus and the Holy Trinity; the Mother, the Son, and the Holy Ghost. Dawn of Daynes is Lightbringer, the meteorite ore from which it was forged, was taken by Azor Ahai from the site where later was build Starfall. So Starfall is the place of power. Half of that meteorite's power went into the sword, and half went into the future wielder of Lightbringer (Jon), who was conceived at the same place from which the ore was taken. The first Azor Ahai was unable to completely defeat the Others, because he had only half of the power required for that. He wasn't born with that power, unlike Jon. Lighbringer in Latin is lucifer, which is one of Jesus' titles in the Bible, and also the name of planet Venus, the Morning Star (the wielder of Dawn is titled the Sword of the Morning, and Lucifer/devil in the Bible was called morning star and son of the dawn. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucifer), which is a guardian planet of Libra.

If Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, then he was born 40 weeks later, on the day of autumnal equinox (the day when night and day are equal, after which each day becomes shorter and each night becomes longer. After Jon's birth came the Long Night ), which happens on September 21-24. Libras are born thru September 23-October 22. GRRM said that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany. So, if Jon is Libra, then Dany is Gemini, which is, same as Libra, is an Air sign of Zodiac. 8-9 months after September-October is May-July, and Geminis are born thru May 21-June 21. On Dany's 14th birthday she realised that she's pregnant, she gave birth to Rhaego several months prior her 15th birthday, based on when the Bleeding Star appeared in the sky (on the day of Joffrey's birthday, which is in the beginning of January (he died shortly prior his birthday of that year, his wedding was held on January 1st)), it seems that Rhaego is an Aquarius (born thru January 21-February 20), also an Air sign. So all three future dragonriders are Air signs. GRRM gave hints in AGOT, in chapter of Drogo's funeral, that Dany is going to be Drogon's rider, next dragonrider is going to be Rhaego on Rhaegal, then Jon on Viserion.

Though it would have been kind of inconvenient for Lyanna and Rhaegar to stay unwed thru all that time (it takes about two months to get from Harrenhal to Starfall). Furthermore, if they were cought by Starks before they got married, then they would have been separated. Thus it's likely that they got married shortly after the "kidnapping". I think that they went to God's Eye, to the Isle of Faces, and got married there, in that sacred place. And that Howland Reed was their guide, and led them to that island. Because he knew that place very well. Prior Tournament at Harrenhal he spent entire winter on that island. My guess is that after events at Harrenhal Lyanna, Ashara and Howland became friends. So, could be that when Ashara and Howland were reunited at the Isle of Faces, they also got married (then, or several months later).

I think that Howland's wife, Jyana Reed, is actually Ashara Dayne (after her friend Lyanna died, she took for herself a new name - Jyana, similar to Lyanna's name). Rhaegar and Lyanna near the end of that year conceived Jon, and a bit later Ashara with Howland conceived Meera. Wylla, the wet-nurse from Starfall, originally was Meera's wet-nurse. When Rhaegar went back to King's Landing, Ashara and Lyanna remained at Starfall. Probably Howland and three Kingsguards were also there. After Lyanna gave birth to Jon (most likely at Starfall), it became obvious that she's going to die. Thus, those Kingsguards took little Jon, and Wylla (to feed the baby), and left Starfall. Probably they were intending to bring Jon to Dragonstone to Queen Rhaella. Because they already knew that Aerys, Rhaegar, and Aegon were dead. Which means that Jon was the Prince of Dragonstone, and next in line for Targaryen crown. Though to Lyanna it was obvious that if Jon's identity will be revealed, Robert will kill him. Thus, when Ned arrived to Starfall, just in time to witness Lyanna's last moments, she asked him to stop those Kingsguards, and to protect Jon from Robert. He went after them, intercepted them at the Tower of Joy, killed them, and took away Jon. Wylla remained to be Jon's wet-nurse, and Ned took both of them to Winterfell.

Probably, it was Howland, who contacted Ned at Storm's End after the Sack of King's Landing, and revealed to him Lyanna's whereabouts. Ashara and her family at Starfall faked her death, and she went with Howland and Meera to the Neck. People at the Neck doesn't know who this Jyana really is, that actually she's a Dayne. Thus it was very inconvenient when later she gave birth to two boys, one of which had atypical for crannogmen blue eyes and blond hair. Probably Howland hid from his people that there was two children. Probably Jyana's unusual eye-color was somehow explained to Howland's people, though the same explanation couldn't have been used a second time to explain her child's eyes and hair color. So Howland went to his friend Ned, fetched Wylla from Winterfell (Jon at that time was approximately 2,5-3 years old, thus no longer needed a wet-nurse), gave his son to her, and sent her back to Starfall, where that baby was later presented to people as Edric Ned Dayne, while his twin brother, Jojen Reed, remained with his parents at the Neck.

Or, maybe, which seems more logical, Jyana gave birth to her twins during her's and Howland's preplanned visit to Winterfell. She was pregnant, and they didn't knew whether their child/children will look like Howland, like Ashara, or like some of Ashara's blond/blue-eyed Dayne reletives, thus, for the childbirth they went away from the Neck. And when she gave birth to twin-boys, one of which looked like a Dayne, they already had a plan what to do, and Wylla was ready to become part of Edric's further fate. So, when they went back to the Neck, no one there knew that originally there was two children, born by Jyana back at Winterfell.

After Wylla arrived to Starfall, Lady Dayne, who later became Edric's mother, had to fake pregnancy for a few months, to make people believe that Edric is her child. Thus, Edric's official date of birth is several months later than his real date of birth. He and others think that he was born in 287, while actually, same as Jojen Reed, he was born earlier, in 286. That's why Edric Dayne claims that he and Jon Snow are milk-brothers, and mistakenly think that his wet-nurse Wylla is Jon's mother. I'm aware that this theory, about Jojen-Edric, is very far-fetched, though it's not like Wylla was the only wet-nurse in 7K, thus her extensive traveling from Dorne to the North and back to Starfall looks suspicious. And my theory explains the reason behind that traveling, and why Starks and Daynes were using the same wet-nurse and not some other woman.

So, what Barristan knew about Ashara, was a fake information, intentionally provided by Elia, to cover up Ashara's real activity at that time. Though later Ashara did gave birth to a girl - Meera, and then to two boys - Jojen and Edric. I don't know how about other readers, but to me Meera's story about Harrenhal seems to be one of those "How mommy and daddy met and fell in love", what's with Howland paying attention to everyone with whom Ashara danced.