The Queens will not face trial

[Loras]

**Please note: this post does refer to the 'Mercy'  chapter from 'The Winds of Winter' to establish the timeline and outcome of Cersei's trial**

 

Recently I have been constructing an essay on 'The Lord Regent', Ser Kevan Lannister, and how his epilogue chapter sets up the fate of the five competing factions in King's Landing (Lannister, Tyrell, Martell/Sand, Targaryen, and The Faith).  As part of this, I have done a thorough re-read of the conversations in Kevan's epilogue chapter.  Prior to this, I was fairly convinced that Cersei would face a trial with her champion, Ser Robert Strong, but having read the words of the remaining powers in King's Landing - it is clear that there is no appetite for a trial and so my prediction is: neither Margaery or Cersei will face a trial in the upcoming books.

Please let me know what you think.

 

(i)            On the trials of the two queens

“Neither Queen Cersei or Queen Margaery were amongst them, their presence could be felt poisoning the air, like ghosts at a feast.”

(Epilogue, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

As he sits on the window seat dying, Varys tells Ser Kevan that one of the things that he has done that has earned him this death is ‘binding the Faith to the little king.’  We know from the time that Tyrion spent aboard the Shy Maid, that Prince Aegon has been well schooled in the scriptures of the Faith by the mysterious Septa Lemore (more discussion on her can be found in a separate instalment).  It is clear that both Ser Kevan and the Aegon conspiracy have a clear understanding of the importance of the Faith.  The importance of the Faith to the smallfolk is a recurring theme throughout the Brienne character arc in ‘A Feast for Crows’, as she encounters begging brothers, Septon Meribald, and the Elder Brother of the Quiet Isle throughout her journey.  Martin also uses ‘Fire and Blood – Part 1’ to highlight the influence of the Faith on the smallfolk of the Seven Kingdoms.  By appeasing the Faith through the delivery of both Queens to their trials Ser Kevan is increasing the influence of the Faith on the Iron Throne.

“It had to be,” Ser Kevan muttered over the last of his wine.  His High Holiness has to be appeased.  Tommen needed the Faith beside him in the battles to come.”

(Epilogue, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

By appeasing the Faith through the delivery of both Queens to their trials Ser Kevan is increasing the influence of the Faith on the Iron Throne.  However, it also shows that Ser Kevan has an understanding of how important the Faith is – and let us not forget that Cersei empowered the Faith because it was the only way she could convince The High Sparrow to anoint Tommen (as well as the small matter of a few golden dragons worth of debt).  It seems that Mace Tyrell also acknowledges that the Faith does have some power, as he is unwilling to move his army from King’s Landing until after Margaery’s trial.  That army is clearly meant to keep the High Sparrow in check.  Yet the political appetite for a trial is completely absent for anyone other than Ser Kevan Lannister.

Ser Kevan broods throughout his chapter broods on Cersei’s upcoming trial by combat and hopes that her champion will prevail against that of the Faith.  He is the voice on the small council who is really pushing for the trials.  When Mace Tyrell insists that King Tommen should just declare Queen Margaery innocent, Ser Kevan thinks that:

‘Do that, and the whispers will follow Margaery for the rest of her life.  “No man doubts your daughter’s innocence my lord,” Ser Kevan lied, “but His High Holiness demands a trial’

(‘Epilogue’, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

This begs the question as to whether, without the influence of Ser Kevan, the trials of the two queens will go ahead of whether the crown will simply declare them innocent.  Both Tyrell and Tarly seem to be against granting that level of influence to the Faith, nor do they trust them.  It seems clear that Cersei, without Ser Kevan, will deem that she does not need to be tried.  Cersei’s trial is due to take place five days after the Epilogue chapter.

Before presenting the evidence that neither the Lioness or the Rose will face a trial by the Faith in the upcoming book, it is important to discuss the timeline as established by the ‘Mercy’ sample chapter from ‘The Winds of Winter’.  In summary, Arya murders Raff the Sweetling, who has crossed the Narrow Sea with Ser Harys Swyft as he treats with the Iron Bank of Braavos.  In the Epilogue, both Harys and Pycelle indicate that they feel threatened in King’s Landing, to which Kevan suggests hiring the Mountain’s men who have travelled with Ronnet Connington from Maidenpool and previously from Harrenhal.  It seems like Harys, after the death of both Kevan and Pycelle has decided to do just that, taking Raff to Braavos to meet his fate. 

As an interesting aside here: Kevan has originally intended Harys to visit the money changers in Myr before heading to Braavos, but it is clear from the conversation between Raff and the second Lannister guardsman that they have come directly to Braavos.

“I’m chilled to the bones. Where are the bloody orange trees? I always heard there were orange trees in the Free Cities. Lemons and limes. Pomegranates. Hot peppers, warm nights, girls with bare bellies. Where are the bare-bellied girls, I ask you?”

“Down in Lys, and Myr, and Old Volantis,” the other guard replied.

(‘Mercy’, ‘The Winds of Winter’)

Had the party actually gone to Myr, as planned, then Raff would not have asked this question.  I wonder who changed Ser Harys’ plan?  So the question remains, regarding who currently holds power in King’s Landing and the answer it seems is: Cersei Lannister.

“If he goes back without the gold the queen will have his head.”

(‘Mercy’, ‘The Winds of Winter’)

Assuming that the queen in question is Queen Cersei, it appears as though she reassumes the regency for her son Tommen.  The fandom seems to think that Cersei will survive her trial by battle, or general tribulations with the Faith, and the evidence from this chapter certainly suggests that she does. 

However, I think it is far more likely that Cersei and Margaery will defy the Faith by not attending their trials and will instead be cleared by Tommen.  Throughout the Small Council meeting, Kevan faces resistance to the trials from the Tyrells.

Mace Tyrell, Hand of the King, establishes that he has no intention of moving against the ‘adventurers’ in the Stormlands while Margaery awaits trial.

“These charges against my daughter are filthy lies.  I ask again, why must we play out this mummer’s farce?”

Mace (‘Epilogue’, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

It is clear that Mace either does not understand the implications of defying the Faith, unlike Kevan, or simply underestimates their power and influence.  He describes the trials as a mummer’s farce, though whether he is referring to the accusations here, or the fact that the declaration of Margaery’s innocence is a foregone conclusion, or that there is a trial against Margaery period remains to be seen.  Though Kevan’s thoughts seem to indicate that it is the latter:

“As you say.  My Margaery prefers to be tried by the Faith, so the realm can bear witness to her innocence.”

If your daughter is as innocent as you would have us believe, why must you have your army present when she faces her accusers?

(Epilogue, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

Again, it seems clear in this exchange that Mace would prefer that there is no trial for Margaery and that his army is in the city as a deterrent to the High Sparrow suddenly finding Margaery guilty.  There are a number of theories that imply that the Tyrells are working in conjunction with the Faith, but the exchange in the Small Council chamber really goes against this for me.  I cannot rationalise why, if the Tyrells were in league with the Faith, that Tarly and Tyrell would have marched their armies to King’s Landing to apply pressure to his High Holiness and secure the release of Margaery.

Randyll, who Kevan acknowledges is the most dangerous of the Tyrell loyalists that has been appointed to the Small Council appears to agree with his liege lord.  Asking a pertinent question:

“What have we become, when kings and high lords must dance to the twitterings of sparrows?”

Randyll (‘Epilogue’, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

I think its important, to take a moment here to examine Randyll Tarly.  Kevan and Cersei discuss Tarly in Cersei II (A Feast for Crows):

“Randyll Tarly is the finest soldier in all the realm.  A poor Hand for peacetime, but with Tywin dead there is no finer man to finish this war.”

Kevan (Cersei II, ‘A Feast for Crows’)

I wonder whether it will be Tarly who commands the army in King’s Landing, while Mace (as he boasts in this chapter) rides off for Storm’s End and the Golden Company?

Kevan’s internal monologue reveals that he expects blood in the streets of King’s Landing if the Iron Throne denies the Faith the trials of the two queens.  We already know that he feels guilty about the concessions that he has already made to the Faith by allowing Cersei’s walk of atonement.  It is Kevan that is ensuring that the trial goes ahead, once again fulfilling what Varys accuses him of: bringing the Faith to King Tommen.

In rebuttal to the Tyrell faction of the small council, Kevan says:

“If my niece is proved guilty of these treasons, the legitimacy of her children will be called into question.  If Tommen ceases to be a king, Margaery ceases to be a queen.”

Kevan (‘Epilogue’, ‘A Dance with Dragons’)

And so, it becomes clear that taking the risk of exposing Cersei to a trial would be too much for the Crown, when it is not necessary.  I think that Mace and Cersei will enter into an uneasy relationship where they agree that neither queen will be tried for their crimes – though I’m sure that Cersei being punished and Margaery not being punished will be an issue.  There is no political appetite for a trial – it is in no one’s best interests.  As Mace, so eloquent, puts it, they will no longer go through with the mummer’s farce – to the seven hells with the High Sparrow.

Prediction:

When the deaths of Kevan Lannister and Grand Maester Pycelle are discovered, the political appetite for delivering the two queens to trial will dissipate.  We know that Mace does not see the need for his daughter to be tried, that Lord Randyll questions the authority of Sparrows to question the actions of the high lords and ladies, and it seems highly unlikely that Cersei would willingly take the risk of trial by battle.  Indeed, Kevan says it correctly when he is arguing why Cersei’s trial must be a success – if Cersei falls to the Faith, then Tommen’s legitimacy and indeed Margaery’s power could all crumble with it.

Cersei may be forced into an uneasy alliance with the Tyrells to prevent the fall of King Tommen.  Will Cersei demand that she assumes the regency in the wake of Kevan’s death?  It seems clear that somehow she will regain some (if not all) power from the insights of Raff the Sweetling in the Mercy chapter.  Could Cersei I in ‘The Winds of Winter’ be a mirror for Cersei I in ‘A Feast for Crows’?  The discovery of the current power of House Lannister dead and the realisation that Cersei, once again, can assume some power.  This would allow Martin to demonstrate the growth in Cersei’s character as a result of her walk of atonement.

It would also neatly mirror Maegor dismantling the Faith militant, with Tarly’s army being the Crown’s force in King’s Landing.  On a story level, this would also drive the Faith militant towards King Aegon which could be essential for the fall of King’s Landing – we saw in the original sack of the city that it was Pycelle who opened the gates, could it be the High Sparrow this time? 

Our viewpoint here is Queen Dowager, Cersei Lannister, the emerald flame of the Rock.  Associated with wildfire throughout her appearances in the novel.  I think we will see Cersei have some success against the Faith in ‘Winds’ and so it is with Kevan’s dinner with Cersei that I will turn to next.

[Back in Black-Snow]

I like this. But I don't think Cersei will let Margery go unpunished, whether by trial or some other means. And Kevin acted as Tyrion did while serving as Hand of King, as a check against Cersei's worst impulses. With Kevin now gone, who knows what she will do now? Perhaps something similar to the abomination?

[Loras]

4 hours ago, Travis said:

I like this. But I don't think Cersei will let Margery go unpunished, whether by trial or some other means. And Kevin acted as Tyrion did while serving as Hand of King, as a check against Cersei's worst impulses. With Kevin now gone, who knows what she will do now? Perhaps something similar to the abomination?

I do agree wwith you regarding Margaery - though Kevan does explain that the majority of the Lannister strength is in the Riverlands.  Cersei is going to have to play a much more delicate game this time around if she is going to want rid of Margaery.

For me, I think Cersei will use wildfire.  I think that Nymeria Sand will murder Tommen (those concealed weapons are going to be important) just as Lorch murdered Rhaenys.  Cersei will decide to turn King's Landing into Tommen's funeral pyre - the green fire imagery is too strongly associated with Cersei for this to not happen.

[Back in Black-Snow]

25 minutes ago, Loras said:

I do agree wwith you regarding Margaery - though Kevan does explain that the majority of the Lannister strength is in the Riverlands.  Cersei is going to have to play a much more delicate game this time around if she is going to want rid of Margaery.

For me, I think Cersei will use wildfire.  I think that Nymeria Sand will murder Tommen (those concealed weapons are going to be important) just as Lorch murdered Rhaenys.  Cersei will decide to turn King's Landing into Tommen's funeral pyre - the green fire imagery is too strongly associated with Cersei for this to not happen.

Agree.

[Mithras]

Yes, they will. And it will be quick wins for both of them.

7 hours ago, Loras said:

Recently I have been constructing an essay on 'The Lord Regent', Ser Kevan Lannister, and how his epilogue chapter sets up the fate of the five competing factions in King's Landing (Lannister, Tyrell, Martell/Sand, Targaryen, and The Faith).

fAegon won't take King's Landing ever.

[Lord Varys]

@Loras

The problem with your take on the Mercy chapter is that we know that said chapter was originally written as the first Arya chapter set after the planned five year gap. It has a very long textual history, meaning that chances are pretty great that the talk about 'the queen' having the head of Ser Harys in there reflects the setting after the abandoned gap which would have opened on the Queen Regent Cersei Lannisters still running the show in KL after having gone through a couple of Hands, etc.

The way things stand it is very unlikely that Harys Swyft is going to be send to Essos by Cersei - the decision to force the Master of Coin to go look for more loans has already been sort of made in the Epilogue, and we can expect that the Mercy chapter is going to be rewritten slightly to reflect Cersei being broken by the walk of shame as well as Harys being rather fearful and anxious due to the murder of his son-in-law, the Lord Regent. I think George made this version a sample chapter to not spoil us about the aftermath of the discovery of the double murder. Unlike the Theon, Arianne, Tyrion, Barristan, and Aeron chapters, 'Mercy' wasn't a chapter finished for ADwD which was then only moved on to TWoW. It is not finished the same those others were.

Having Cersei ruin herself so effectively in AFfC really would make no sense if the plan was to have in charge yet again in TWoW. That would make all the plot of AFfC just pointless filler.

Both Harys and Pycelle were wary of the Tyrells in the Epilogue, and their murders will convince Ser Harys to get out of the city as quickly as possible.

As things stand, it is impossible that Cersei can regain the regency. She no longer has the standing, being a filthy slut who has been drawn through the mud of the city for the rabble to mock and humiliate, nor - and that's the important part - the allies and men to force the Small Council to restore her to the regency. She is down to Qyburn, 'Ser Robert Strong', and a couple of guardsmen which, at best, number in the hundreds. She has no hold over/allies in the City Watch, nor would the Lannister guards and the City Watch combined have the strength to move against the 30,000-40,000 Tyrell men in the city.

The government will be run by Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly - and they might make Mace the new Lord Regent or they might leave the position vacant since Mace also speaks with the King's Voice as the Hand of the King. He doesn't really have to call himself Lord Regent to do that (although I expect that he might).

Insofar as the trials are concerned, yes, there is a chance that they might be postponed or cancelled. This is especially true for Margaery's trial since you correctly point that it is Ser Kevan who wisely pushed Tyrell and Tarly to accept the jurisdiction of the Faith in the matter. They themselves do not view it in this manner, meaning that chances are not that bad at all that without Kevan's voice of reason Mace and Randyll might decide to not bother accommodating the Faith and instead rely on their troops to force the Faith to accept that King Tommen is ruling on the guilt or innocence of his wife Queen Margaery, and not some Faith trial.

With Cersei they could do a similar thing, but it wouldn't be their call whether the accused queen dowager wants a trial-by-combat or not. And she wants that since she has good reason to think that nobody will be able to stand against Ser Robert Strong. The only way how I think Mace and Randyll could prevent Cersei's trial would be if they were to accuse her of the double murder - which they easily could - and then had her arrested for this and made the subsequent murder trial more important than the case the Faith had been building against Cersei.

The most crucial question/consequence of the double murder is who King Tommen's government (i.e. Mace and Randyll) will blame for it. And they have every reason to use this as a welcome pretext (even if they did not believe Cersei was the one behind the double murder) to arrest Cersei.

Cersei is likely going to believe the Tyrells and Tarly were behind the double murder, but unlike Mace she doesn't have the power to arrest them. She could accuse them, of course, but that wouldn't get her anywhere.

I expect Cersei to insist that her trial takes place, and for her to use this chance to get out of the Red Keep to plan her escape from the city - because the double murder will fuel her paranoia, she will believe that she is next after Kevan and Pycelle. I also expect 'Ser Robert' to win but Cersei to be found guilty anyway, because the true identity and nature of 'Ser Robert' will be revealed during the fighting, and that's going to be interpreted as cheating, blasphemy, and foul sorcery. The High Septon might even demand Cersei be burned alive as a witch - like Poxy Jeyne Poore was back during Maegor's reign. A trial-by-combat can only be a judgment of the Seven when one of the champions isn't a zombie that cannot be killed.

And from there things will quickly decline for 'King Tommen' and his government. If something like that happened, it would finally cut the ties between Dorne and the Iron Throne (even if Arianne had not yet declared for Aegon) since Nym and Tyene cannot possibly accept that Gregor Clegane isn't dead but an undead monster in service of 'King Tommen'.

Cersei should be able to flee the city after that - to eventually return to KL as Euron's wife and queen to start a proper rule of terror in the city. I think it would also fitting if she tried to take Tommen with her during her escape but unintentionally caused his death.

The scenario of Tommen declaring Margaery innocent could still happen if Mace and Randyll were refusing to acknowledge that Tommen and Myrcella are no longer royals but bastards born of incest and adultery (which would be the case quite officially if the High Septon declared Cersei guilty of all her charges), clinging to the boy king who grants them power. They could have Tommen declare Margaery innocent in the Red Keep, while the High Septon condemns them all, which would then start an open conflict between the Great Sept and the Iron Throne in the streets.

As for wildfire shenanigans: They are not going to happen. All known 'fruits of King Aerys' as well as the newly produces glasses of the substance burned on the Blackwater, and while the alchemists can produce new wildfire more quickly than before the dragons hatched, they are not likely to work with the disgraced slut queen right now. Cersei has no close ties to nor a hold over the alchemists, and it is literally impossible for her arrange a wildfire-based scheme in a couple of days or weeks. That is something only a person who is unquestionably in charge could do.

 

[Loras]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The problem with your take on the Mercy chapter is that we know that said chapter was originally written as the first Arya chapter set after the planned five year gap. It has a very long textual history, meaning that chances are pretty great that the talk about 'the queen' having the head of Ser Harys in there reflects the setting after the abandoned gap which would have opened on the Queen Regent Cersei Lannisters still running the show in KL after having gone through a couple of Hands, etc.

The way things stand it is very unlikely that Harys Swyft is going to be send to Essos by Cersei - the decision to force the Master of Coin to go look for more loans has already been sort of made in the Epilogue, and we can expect that the Mercy chapter is going to be rewritten slightly to reflect Cersei being broken by the walk of shame as well as Harys being rather fearful and anxious due to the murder of his son-in-law, the Lord Regent. I think George made this version a sample chapter to not spoil us about the aftermath of the discovery of the double murder. Unlike the Theon, Arianne, Tyrion, Barristan, and Aeron chapters, 'Mercy' wasn't a chapter finished for ADwD which was then only moved on to TWoW. It is not finished the same those others were.

@Lord Varys

Firstly, thank you for such a long and detailed reply!

I completely take your point on board regarding the Mercy chapter.  The difficulty is that it is the only published excerpt that gives us any information regarding the state of play in King's Landing.  I would have hoped that prior to publishing the chapter, George would have removed anything that is deliberately misleading about the chapter knowing how much fans would pick over the details.  The story does grow in the telling and so I concede that the Mercy chapter section of the above essay is likely to be incorrect.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Having Cersei ruin herself so effectively in AFfC really would make no sense if the plan was to have in charge yet again in TWoW. That would make all the plot of AFfC just pointless filler.

I disagree that it would reduce the AFfC arc to pointless filler.  Certainly whatever happens next with Cersei's story it will require her to grow as a character and is likely to involve her regaining power (in some capacity at least) at some point.  I feel like Cersei has been brought to a similar point at the end of ADWD that Jaime was brought to in his opening chapters of ASOS - bald and having the thing that defines them completely removed.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As things stand, it is impossible that Cersei can regain the regency. She no longer has the standing, being a filthy slut who has been drawn through the mud of the city for the rabble to mock and humiliate, nor - and that's the important part - the allies and men to force the Small Council to restore her to the regency. She is down to Qyburn, 'Ser Robert Strong', and a couple of guardsmen which, at best, number in the hundreds. She has no hold over/allies in the City Watch, nor would the Lannister guards and the City Watch combined have the strength to move against the 30,000-40,000 Tyrell men in the city.

Without the information from the Mercy chapter, I would completely agree with you about Cersei regaining the regency.  

I actually find the passage in the Epilogue where Kevan describes Cersei's day quite heartbreaking.  She spend a third of her time in her tub scrubbing herself clean, though Kevan notes that no amount of scrubbing will make her clean out her sins.  

The role of Qyburn in the Epilogue is also significant.  While he doesn't appear on screen at any point, he does provide Kevan with some useful information regarding Nymeria Sand and the rumours that surround the character.  Yet he has been removed from office as part of the Small Council - on the urging of Pycelle - I wonder whether he has been feeding the same information to the Tyrells?  Kevan doesn't seem to think so from his internal monologue.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Insofar as the trials are concerned, yes, there is a chance that they might be postponed or cancelled. This is especially true for Margaery's trial since you correctly point that it is Ser Kevan who wisely pushed Tyrell and Tarly to accept the jurisdiction of the Faith in the matter. They themselves do not view it in this manner, meaning that chances are not that bad at all that without Kevan's voice of reason Mace and Randyll might decide to not bother accommodating the Faith and instead rely on their troops to force the Faith to accept that King Tommen is ruling on the guilt or innocence of his wife Queen Margaery, and not some Faith trial.

With Cersei they could do a similar thing, but it wouldn't be their call whether the accused queen dowager wants a trial-by-combat or not. And she wants that since she has good reason to think that nobody will be able to stand against Ser Robert Strong. The only way how I think Mace and Randyll could prevent Cersei's trial would be if they were to accuse her of the double murder - which they easily could - and then had her arrested for this and made the subsequent murder trial more important than the case the Faith had been building against Cersei.

Mace states his intention to have Tommen declare Margaery innocent in the Epilogue.  If it is he who ascends to the role of Regent in TWOW, all he would need to do is draw up the papers and have Tommen fix his seal to it.  Even if he decides to ask Tommen's permission, which he wouldn't have to, Tommen's feelings about the imprisonment of the two queens was made clear in Cersei I (ADWD).

Going back to the 'meta' arguments, George required Kevan to be a viewpoint character because Cersei had been removed from power in King's Landing (amongst other things).  If Cersei continues to be a sidelined viewpoint, it is going to become similar to Sansa's viewpoint in ACOK and ASOS, she is going to have very limited agency of her own.  I guess that part of this will be determined by how quickly the plot in the Stormlands moves with Arianne and Aegon.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The most crucial question/consequence of the double murder is who King Tommen's government (i.e. Mace and Randyll) will blame for it. And they have every reason to use this as a welcome pretext (even if they did not believe Cersei was the one behind the double murder) to arrest Cersei.

Cersei is likely going to believe the Tyrells and Tarly were behind the double murder, but unlike Mace she doesn't have the power to arrest them. She could accuse them, of course, but that wouldn't get her anywhere.

I was thinking about this too.  Your namesake gives us a clue when he says: Cersei will blame the Tyrells, The Tyrells will suspect her.  Someone, somewhere , will find a way to blame the Dornishmen.

Varys' timing of this murder is absolutely critical.  We know that the Dornishmen haven't arrived in the city yet, but they are on their way somewhere.  We also know that Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly have not been told about the arrival of Nymeria.  Pycelle and Qyburn are likely two of the only other people who know they are coming - Qyburn is unlikely (?) to informs the Tyrells and Pycelle is dead.  Mace is unlikely to behave kindly towards the daughter of the man who crippled his son.

I think that Varys planned this carefully to implicate the Dornish party that is arriving imminently in the city... why else would he have two different MOs for the murder: the crossbow bolt and the daggers.  If Nym's reputation is well known, she could very well be implicated in the death.

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect Cersei to insist that her trial takes place, and for her to use this chance to get out of the Red Keep to plan her escape from the city - because the double murder will fuel her paranoia, she will believe that she is next after Kevan and Pycelle. I also expect 'Ser Robert' to win but Cersei to be found guilty anyway, because the true identity and nature of 'Ser Robert' will be revealed during the fighting, and that's going to be interpreted as cheating, blasphemy, and foul sorcery. The High Septon might even demand Cersei be burned alive as a witch - like Poxy Jeyne Poore was back during Maegor's reign. A trial-by-combat can only be a judgment of the Seven when one of the champions isn't a zombie that cannot be killed.

 I think the reveal of Ser Robert is going to be much more significant for the Dornish - namely Lady Nym as she mentions him literally every time she is on page.  Surely the Crown wouldn't allow that though, it would taint both Tommen and by extension, Margaery?

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

And from there things will quickly decline for 'King Tommen' and his government. If something like that happened, it would finally cut the ties between Dorne and the Iron Throne (even if Arianne had not yet declared for Aegon) since Nym and Tyene cannot possibly accept that Gregor Clegane isn't dead but an undead monster in service of 'King Tommen'.

Cersei should be able to flee the city after that - to eventually return to KL as Euron's wife and queen to start a proper rule of terror in the city. I think it would also fitting if she tried to take Tommen with her during her escape but unintentionally caused his death.

I agree that there will be a rapid downturn in fortune for King Tommen and his government.  The murder of children is so carefully placed within the Dornish arc that I really think that the Sand Snakes have to be responsible for the death of at least one of Cersei's children.  I've spent a fair bit of time writing about Nymeria Sand, looking at her three scenes and extrapolating potential plot beats from there.  She restates her intention in both chapters that she appears in that she wants Tommen dead, and Tommen is conflated with the idea of Rhaenys in one of the statements - the other is when we first find out about her hidden knives.

I think that it is unlikely that Cersei will be the cause of Tommen's death - she gets enough guilt from the prophecy.  I could see Nym being forced into action during Aegon's assault on the city if Cersei tries to leave with Tommen and Gregor.  

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As for wildfire shenanigans: They are not going to happen. All known 'fruits of King Aerys' as well as the newly produces glasses of the substance burned on the Blackwater, and while the alchemists can produce new wildfire more quickly than before the dragons hatched, they are not likely to work with the disgraced slut queen right now. Cersei has no close ties to nor a hold over the alchemists, and it is literally impossible for her arrange a wildfire-based scheme in a couple of days or weeks. That is something only a person who is unquestionably in charge could do.

So do you see the green fire imagery associated with Cersei to be purely metaphorical wildfire?  Being a manifestation of her character rather than foreshadowing some future event?

[300 H&H Magnum]

I know not how the discord between Cersei and HS will be settled.  What I see is a serious adversary in the HS who is not going away without a fight.  Cersei can take a page from Maegor and use the Lannister gold to set a bounty for the heads of every religious nut.  She has done this before with Penny's brother. 

[sweetsunray]

17 hours ago, Loras said:

I do agree wwith you regarding Margaery - though Kevan does explain that the majority of the Lannister strength is in the Riverlands.  Cersei is going to have to play a much more delicate game this time around if she is going to want rid of Margaery.

For me, I think Cersei will use wildfire.  I think that Nymeria Sand will murder Tommen (those concealed weapons are going to be important) just as Lorch murdered Rhaenys.  Cersei will decide to turn King's Landing into Tommen's funeral pyre - the green fire imagery is too strongly associated with Cersei for this to not happen.

Your proposal that there will be no trials is interesting in the light of not just Nymeria Sand, but also Tyene Sand who is to get close to the High Sparrow, and Arianne very likely allying with Aegon. A High Sparrow who wasn't allowed to put Margaery and Cersei on trial may let his ears hang to Tyene whispering that Aegon will be the saviour, and in turn rouse the city effectively in rebelling against Cersei and open the gates. Cersei would have no issue in setting off wildfire against the people of KL if they are willing to open the gates for Aegon, as she makes her escape to Casterly Rock.

I'm not certain Tommen will fall victim to the Sand Snakes. It seems as if they would be far more sympathetic to Myrcella, but if we are making a comparison to Fire and Blood, forcing Cersei to make a choice between one of her children, an echo of Blood and Cheese, then they might end up killing Myrcella instead and Tommen might survive and flee to Casterly Rock along with Cersei. Joffrey's name day tourney at least suggests that Tommen will make a second try for it, as far as Tyrion's return with his "savages".

ETA: I too expect Mercy to be slightly altered when it comes to Cersei's status and hold on KL. Logically the chapter will be placed around the time that the outcome of the Battle of the Ice Lakes for Stannis is not yet known to the reader, or that the reader and most of the realm is under the impression he lost that battle.

Though I suspect the Iron Bank and the HoBaW will know better through Jaquen as Pate in Oldtown and having access to glass candles to check upon the status of Stannis and pass along the info to Braavos that way. I read the Mercy chapter as the Iron Bank having hired the HoBaW to make trouble for Harys Swyft (the envoy) and the Sealord, so to have a reason to send Swyft packing without a renewed deal with King Tommen. That is imo Arya's mission - do something that causes a scandal against Swyft and his men, that will anger the Braavosi. One of his guards (one of the Mountain's men who had just boasted to his colleague how he missed the raping and murdering days and plotted to murder a dwarf actor) going off to a sweet pretty young girl's room, and both being missing, and a lot of blood in her appartment, will create the scandalous illusion taht Raff was the murderer and Mercy the rape and murder victim.

 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, Loras said:

Firstly, thank you for such a long and detailed reply!

Well, that's overall a topic I really like and have thought about quite a few times over the years ;-).

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I completely take your point on board regarding the Mercy chapter.  The difficulty is that it is the only published excerpt that gives us any information regarding the state of play in King's Landing.  I would have hoped that prior to publishing the chapter, George would have removed anything that is deliberately misleading about the chapter knowing how much fans would pick over the details.  The story does grow in the telling and so I concede that the Mercy chapter section of the above essay is likely to be incorrect.

I expect that the chapter is going to have to reference the walk of shame (even if Cersei were to sort of magically regain the regency, Raff and his buddy should know that the woman was paraded naked through the streets) as well as the double murder and Swyft's own precarious position at court.

Also keep in mind that the Mercy chapter was publicly released shortly before an episode involving Arya in season 4 which featured her in a position where she killed one of the people on her list back in the inn. George seemed to wanted his version of that to be the first people read - never mind that later the Mercy chapter also inspired the whole Braavos story with Meryn Trant, etc.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I disagree that it would reduce the AFfC arc to pointless filler.  Certainly whatever happens next with Cersei's story it will require her to grow as a character and is likely to involve her regaining power (in some capacity at least) at some point.  I feel like Cersei has been brought to a similar point at the end of ADWD that Jaime was brought to in his opening chapters of ASOS - bald and having the thing that defines them completely removed.

Definitely, on a personal level. And I certainly think the walk will have taught Cersei the value of patience and subtle plotting as well as given her a strong desire for vengeance, but even with all that - she just doesn't have the men to force the issue now.

I'm expecting that she will come back big time as Lady of Casterly Rock with a strong army of her own, and that she will eventually wrest the Iron Throne from Aegon or Daenerys with the help of her new husband, Euron Greyjoy. If it was only against Dany, it might take place while all the good guys are fighting the Others. But she also could become a powerful force in her own right if she got back into the West. Remember the scene Jaime remembers in AFfC - how she and Tommen were cheered by the Westermen when they were sent back home by Tommen. She is quite popular there, and there is no chance that they won't fight to avenge her honor and/or her children, if they were to be killed by her enemies.

If she remained in KL is some capacity while Aegon and his allies prepare to take the city, she would end up captured or killed, which isn't something I expect so far. Connington wants to end the line of the usurper and if they actually do that, I doubt they will be stupid enough to spare Cersei.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I actually find the passage in the Epilogue where Kevan describes Cersei's day quite heartbreaking.  She spend a third of her time in her tub scrubbing herself clean, though Kevan notes that no amount of scrubbing will make her clean out her sins.

It really shook her, but she isn't broken on the inside, one imagines - however, she clearly no longer has the standing with the people in KL to force anyone to obey them. Especially since she has so few men against so many Tyrells - her guardsmen won't be keen to fight and die for a slut queen, even if they had a better chance of winning (which they don't have).

8 hours ago, Loras said:

The role of Qyburn in the Epilogue is also significant.  While he doesn't appear on screen at any point, he does provide Kevan with some useful information regarding Nymeria Sand and the rumours that surround the character.  Yet he has been removed from office as part of the Small Council - on the urging of Pycelle - I wonder whether he has been feeding the same information to the Tyrells?  Kevan doesn't seem to think so from his internal monologue.

Qyburn seems to be still loyal to Cersei - I think he could help her to flee the castle and the city if that's what she wants to do. Chances are bad that he would sell her to the Tyrells since he was the one torturing the Blue Bard into accusing Margaery. They will know or suspect as much.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

Mace states his intention to have Tommen declare Margaery innocent in the Epilogue.  If it is he who ascends to the role of Regent in TWOW, all he would need to do is draw up the papers and have Tommen fix his seal to it.  Even if he decides to ask Tommen's permission, which he wouldn't have to, Tommen's feelings about the imprisonment of the two queens was made clear in Cersei I (ADWD).

Yeah, of course, chances are that he might do that immediately, or only later. This is a serious possibility.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

Going back to the 'meta' arguments, George required Kevan to be a viewpoint character because Cersei had been removed from power in King's Landing (amongst other things).  If Cersei continues to be a sidelined viewpoint, it is going to become similar to Sansa's viewpoint in ACOK and ASOS, she is going to have very limited agency of her own.  I guess that part of this will be determined by how quickly the plot in the Stormlands moves with Arianne and Aegon.

I think that is likely to cause him to add another POV in either Lady Nym or Tyene Sand, or perhaps even Margaery, Mace, or Loras (who could return to court in early TWoW).

Cersei 1 should be her being her waking up to the news of the double murder, a chapter mirroring Cersei 1 in AFfC, but after that she won't be in the thick of things. She has no seat on the council, and if she were arrested by the Tyrells she would have access to information at all. Even if she isn't, she is still confined to Maegor's.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I was thinking about this too.  Your namesake gives us a clue when he says: Cersei will blame the Tyrells, The Tyrells will suspect her.  Someone, somewhere , will find a way to blame the Dornishmen.

Varys' timing of this murder is absolutely critical.  We know that the Dornishmen haven't arrived in the city yet, but they are on their way somewhere.  We also know that Mace Tyrell and Randyll Tarly have not been told about the arrival of Nymeria.  Pycelle and Qyburn are likely two of the only other people who know they are coming - Qyburn is unlikely (?) to informs the Tyrells and Pycelle is dead.  Mace is unlikely to behave kindly towards the daughter of the man who crippled his son.

That Nym's arrival in KL will be another source of tension is quite clear, but we don't even know yet if they are going to arrive at all. They could be captured by the Golden Company in the Stormlands. They took the Boneway which means they must cross the Stormlands, not the Reach. And since they weren't there yet in the Epilogue, they could very be captured.

However, if they get there, chances are not that bad that Nym is simply not granted a seat on the council at all. Mace would run the show, and there is no reason to assume he would want Oberyn's bastard daughter on his council.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I think that Varys planned this carefully to implicate the Dornish party that is arriving imminently in the city... why else would he have two different MOs for the murder: the crossbow bolt and the daggers.  If Nym's reputation is well known, she could very well be implicated in the death.

That could happen, but would be very weird since she isn't there yet. Both Cersei and the Tyrells will come up with their own ideas of who is behind that when they are informed of the double murder - and Nym simply isn't there yet. They will think of each other and Cersei will also think of the dwarf in the walls.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

 I think the reveal of Ser Robert is going to be much more significant for the Dornish - namely Lady Nym as she mentions him literally every time she is on page.  Surely the Crown wouldn't allow that though, it would taint both Tommen and by extension, Margaery?

My idea of the trial-by-combat is that it takes place befor the Great Sept, like Ned's execution. Cersei would be escorted back there to watch the duel. The show would be run by the Faith and there would be a speech/sermon by the High Septon.

If during the fighting 'Ser Robert' were to talk or, my idea, lose his helmet, revealing to the world who and what he is, then, even if he killed his opponent, the High Septon would address the crowd again condemning Cersei and all she did as blasphemy and sorcery, and declaring her guilty. It would be a reverse image of what happened to Ned - there being some sort of script which crucial people then don't follow. Back then it was Joff and Slynt and Payne, and now it will be 'Ser Robert' and the High Septon.

And when the Seven themselves condemn Cersei as a adulteress and her children as bastards born of incest there is no turning back. That won't be a rumor spread by Stannis.

Mace might still try to fight back because he needs Tommen to be a king for Margaery being a queen, but it would be the beginning of the end for them all.

If they had to march against Aegon after that very few Tyrell men would want to fight and die for a bastard abomination - especially not against a Targaryen pretender when there are still many Targaryen loyalists in the Reach.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I agree that there will be a rapid downturn in fortune for King Tommen and his government.  The murder of children is so carefully placed within the Dornish arc that I really think that the Sand Snakes have to be responsible for the death of at least one of Cersei's children.  I've spent a fair bit of time writing about Nymeria Sand, looking at her three scenes and extrapolating potential plot beats from there.  She restates her intention in both chapters that she appears in that she wants Tommen dead, and Tommen is conflated with the idea of Rhaenys in one of the statements - the other is when we first find out about her hidden knives.

That certainly could happen ... but then perhaps only after/when Aegon takes the city, sort of like a mirror image of the murders of Elia and the children during the Sack.

Because I doubt that Nym is allowed to enter Maegor's or be in Tommen's presence even if she were granted a seat on the council.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

I think that it is unlikely that Cersei will be the cause of Tommen's death - she gets enough guilt from the prophecy.  I could see Nym being forced into action during Aegon's assault on the city if Cersei tries to leave with Tommen and Gregor.  

See above. But there is also always Myrcella. We have no reason to believe the children have to die around the same time. And to be sure, they could still be used as figureheads in an anti-Aegon movement even after he has taken the throne. Especially at a time when he starts to look bad. Myrcella or Tommen might be spirited to Highgarden or Casterly Rock to eventually serve as figureheads for a Lannister or Tyrell army.

8 hours ago, Loras said:

So do you see the green fire imagery associated with Cersei to be purely metaphorical wildfire?  Being a manifestation of her character rather than foreshadowing some future event?

I could see her using wildfire if she ever returned to KL as Euron's queen. But to be sure, I always saw the wildfire stuff in AFfC more as Jaime's warped view of wildfire than a genuine Aerys parallel. Cersei was happy burning the Tower of the Hand - the symbol of the men who oppressed her all her life - she doesn't like watching things burn in general, nor has she so far commanded that anyone being burned alive. She is pretty evil, but no sadist as such. When she thinks about/hears what Qyburn does to the poor people she hands to him she is horrified. She doesn't want to take a look at them or help Qyburn with his work.

I certainly see as a power of destruction after her children are all dead - especially if she were responsible for the death of one of her children who yet live - but she isn't there yet.

[Loras]

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

Your proposal that there will be no trials is interesting in the light of not just Nymeria Sand, but also Tyene Sand who is to get close to the High Sparrow, and Arianne very likely allying with Aegon. A High Sparrow who wasn't allowed to put Margaery and Cersei on trial may let his ears hang to Tyene whispering that Aegon will be the saviour, and in turn rouse the city effectively in rebelling against Cersei and open the gates. Cersei would have no issue in setting off wildfire against the people of KL if they are willing to open the gates for Aegon, as she makes her escape to Casterly Rock.

I do think the two Sand Snakes have to have some significant impact on the story to justify their inclusion beyond escorting Myrcella home and making friends with the High Sparrow.  What you outline here is more or less what I expect to happen in the fall of King's Landing - His High Holiness declaring Aegon king and some sort of war in the streets of King's Landing to kick off.

I think this is especially likely if Mace does not deliver Margaery for trial - while @Lord Varys has made convincing arguments that Cersei's trial may still go ahead, it is still possible that Mace, the power in the realm will defy the Faith.  Could this be encouragement enough for the High Sparrow to side with Aegon?

8 hours ago, sweetsunray said:

I'm not certain Tommen will fall victim to the Sand Snakes. It seems as if they would be far more sympathetic to Myrcella, but if we are making a comparison to Fire and Blood, forcing Cersei to make a choice between one of her children, an echo of Blood and Cheese, then they might end up killing Myrcella instead and Tommen might survive and flee to Casterly Rock along with Cersei. Joffrey's name day tourney at least suggests that Tommen will make a second try for it, as far as Tyrion's return with his "savages".

I actually don't think Myrcella is in any danger from the Sand Snakes.  While Nym is constantly talking about murdering Tommen, they never discuss murdering Myrcella.  I think the most logical explanation for this is that the Sand Snakes know Myrcella and have a relationship with her.  Their reaction to Doran revealing Cersei's plan to murder Trystane is telling about the Sand Snake psyche - Nym describes it as monstrous, and Obara expresses that this would be terrible because Trystane is just a boy.

While I like the idea that Nym will make an attempt on Tommen's life, similar to the attack on Rhaenys, I'm not convinced that she will actually be able to go through with it.  

As I said previously, I don't think Cersei needs the additional guilt of being the cause of her childrens' deaths.  She already has the prophecy that she feels that she cannot escape from.  Having Cersei be complicit (even inadvertently) takes away from the hopelessness of being trapped in prophecy.

I'm not familiar with the foreshadowing around the name day tourney?  Would you mind explaining it to me?

 

[Loras]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I expect that the chapter is going to have to reference the walk of shame (even if Cersei were to sort of magically regain the regency, Raff and his buddy should know that the woman was paraded naked through the streets) as well as the double murder and Swyft's own precarious position at court.

This makes sense.  It wouldn't be unusual for George to change the sample chapters after they have been published, as we saw with 'The Queenmaker' back when it was 'Prologue III'.  It does feel as though this chapter was published by George because he didn't want the murder and more specifically, how it is carried out, to be spoiled by the show.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Definitely, on a personal level. And I certainly think the walk will have taught Cersei the value of patience and subtle plotting as well as given her a strong desire for vengeance, but even with all that - she just doesn't have the men to force the issue now

I'm not sure whether she will have learned patience through her experience with the Faith.  I think the fact that she can no longer rely on her beauty as a means of influence nor her reputation will encourage her to be more introverted.  However, I also don't see her being able to accept full responsibility for herself and will hold Jaime to account for leaving her.  Cersei is going to have to rely on her inner skills rather than her physical attributes.  

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I'm expecting that she will come back big time as Lady of Casterly Rock with a strong army of her own, and that she will eventually wrest the Iron Throne from Aegon or Daenerys with the help of her new husband, Euron Greyjoy. If it was only against Dany, it might take place while all the good guys are fighting the Others. But she also could become a powerful force in her own right if she got back into the West. Remember the scene Jaime remembers in AFfC - how she and Tommen were cheered by the Westermen when they were sent back home by Tommen. She is quite popular there, and there is no chance that they won't fight to avenge her honor and/or her children, if they were to be killed by her enemies.

If she remained in KL is some capacity while Aegon and his allies prepare to take the city, she would end up captured or killed, which isn't something I expect so far. Connington wants to end the line of the usurper and if they actually do that, I doubt they will be stupid enough to spare Cersei

It is interesting, isn't it, how popular opinion on what will happen next seems to change.  I remember when ADWD was first released and many people believed that Cersei's days were numbered and that she would be killed off either at her trial or very early in Winds.  

I can't say that I've noticed any foreshadowing that Cersei and Euron will form an alliance - other than obviously this is what happens in the TV show.  I do think that you are right, that Cersei will return to Casterly Rock and raise her banners there.  

Interestingly, your response has brought to mind 'The Battle of the Bells', where Connington in 'The Griffin Reborn' regrets not burning down Stoney Sept in his efforts to find Robert Baratheon.  Do you think that Connington, in his search for another Baratheon - if Cersei does manage to escape the Red Keep with her son - will, in his quest to be more like Tywin Lannister, destroy parts of King's Landing?

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Qyburn seems to be still loyal to Cersei - I think he could help her to flee the castle and the city if that's what she wants to do. Chances are bad that he would sell her to the Tyrells since he was the one torturing the Blue Bard into accusing Margaery. They will know or suspect as much

Yeah, I completely agree. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That Nym's arrival in KL will be another source of tension is quite clear, but we don't even know yet if they are going to arrive at all. They could be captured by the Golden Company in the Stormlands. They took the Boneway which means they must cross the Stormlands, not the Reach. And since they weren't there yet in the Epilogue, they could very be captured.

However, if they get there, chances are not that bad that Nym is simply not granted a seat on the council at all. Mace would run the show, and there is no reason to assume he would want Oberyn's bastard daughter on his council.

I have considered that Mace wouldn't allow Nym to join the council, though again part of this will be determined by how many spears come with Nym to the capital.  It should also be considered that this is Dorne showing that it is part of the alliance with the Lannisters and Tyrells.  Surely Mace or Randyll would not be foolish enough to prevent the Dornish from taking their seat at the council, particularly if they feel that they can use Dorne to deal with Aegon's rebels.

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That Nym's arrival in KL will be another source of tension is quite clear, but we don't even know yet if they are going to arrive at all. They could be captured by the Golden Company in the Stormlands. They took the Boneway which means they must cross the Stormlands, not the Reach. And since they weren't there yet in the Epilogue, they could very be captured.

However, if they get there, chances are not that bad that Nym is simply not granted a seat on the council at all. Mace would run the show, and there is no reason to assume he would want Oberyn's bastard daughter on his council.

This is complete speculation on my part.  Though I wonder why Varys would choose that moment if it didn't have any other significance. 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If during the fighting 'Ser Robert' were to talk or, my idea, lose his helmet, revealing to the world who and what he is, then, even if he killed his opponent, the High Septon would address the crowd again condemning Cersei and all she did as blasphemy and sorcery, and declaring her guilty. It would be a reverse image of what happened to Ned - there being some sort of script which crucial people then don't follow. Back then it was Joff and Slynt and Payne, and now it will be 'Ser Robert' and the High Septon

 I've bolded the section on losing his helmet.  This absolutely has to happen.  Areo Hotah's second chapter opens with: "Let us look upon his head."  Lady Nym is obsessed with Gregor (she speaks about him in every scene she appears in) and I think that shewill have some sort of reckoning with Gregor at the climax of her storyline.

For me, if Cersei's trial was to go ahead, it would make for better reading that Robert wasn't revealed at this point, but during Cersei's flight from KL - when Lady Nym comes for Tommen during the sack.  

That being said - the drama of the scene that you are describing is incredible.  

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But there is also always Myrcella. We have no reason to believe the children have to die around the same time. And to be sure, they could still be used as figureheads in an anti-Aegon movement even after he has taken the throne. Especially at a time when he starts to look bad. Myrcella or Tommen might be spirited to Highgarden or Casterly Rock to eventually serve as figureheads for a Lannister or Tyrell army.

I'm not so sure, I think thematically it is important that the Sand Snakes are at least given an opportunity to carry out their revenge.  The more responses I write in this thread, the more I think that I would like one of the Snakes to not carry out the child killing and end the cycle.  As I mention in my post above, none of the snakes want Myrcella to die - but Nym repeatedly says she wants Tommen to die.

I would be very interested to read Arianne's thoughts if the person opposing her and Aegon's army was the very person that she went out of her way to try and crown.

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I think that is likely to cause him to add another POV in either Lady Nym or Tyene Sand, or perhaps even Margaery, Mace, or Loras (who could return to court in early TWoW).

Cersei 1 should be her being her waking up to the news of the double murder, a chapter mirroring Cersei 1 in AFfC, but after that she won't be in the thick of things. She has no seat on the council, and if she were arrested by the Tyrells she would have access to information at all. Even if she isn't, she is still confined to Maegor's.

Absolutely agree here.  This time around it seems that people believe Martin when he says he won't be adding any more viewpoint characters... but every single time he has said that another one or two pop up.  I don't see how the internal politics of King's Landing could be resolved in the early parts of TWOW without another viewpoint character.

If I were to choose, I'd take Lady Nym - though I am completely biased by head-canon on this character.  I just think that she has so much internal conflict that is so essential to the plot... would she really murder Tommen to continue the cycle of blood OR is child murder a step too far?  Though I would also love a Loras viewpoint.  Maybe I just want another LGBT+ viewpoint to go along with JonCon.

Yeah, Cersei I could cover so many things!  The arrival of Nym, the reunion with Myrcella (I'm really looking forward to this), preparations for the trial, and the double murder.  And I think her second chapter would then be the trial itself (if it happens ;-)) - but those chapters would come in very quick succession.

Despite this being a thread about the two queens, I haven't discussed Margaery much.  What do you think will happen with her? 

4 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I certainly see as a power of destruction after her children are all dead - especially if she were responsible for the death of one of her children who yet live - but she isn't there yet.

That is food for thought...

[Bironic]

Maybe you underestimate your namesake Lord Varys

Kevan:  Oh, Dorna. Pain washed over him. He closed his eyes, opened
them again. “There are … there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle.”

Varys: “But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on
such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes … but you were
threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the
Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule. So …”

I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece
will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will
suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and
mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s
End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

So Varys wants Cersei in some form of power after the murders of Kevan and Pycelle. He doesnt want the Tyrells in complete control.

“Hire the Mountain’s men,” Ser Kevan suggested. “Red Ronnet will have no further use for
them.” He did not think that Mace Tyrell would be so clumsy as to try to murder either Pycelle or Swyft,
but if guards made them feel safer, let them have guards.

The dry moat surrounding Maegor’s Holdfast was three feet deep in snow, the iron spikes that
lined it glistening with frost. The only way in or out of Maegor’s was across the drawbridge that spanned
that moat. A knight of the Kingsguard was always posted at its far end. Tonight the duty had fallen to Ser
Meryn Trant. With Balon Swann hunting the rogue knight Darkstar down in Dorne, Loras Tyrell gravely
wounded on Dragonstone, and Jaime vanished in the riverlands, only four of the White Swords
remained in King’s Landing, and Ser Kevan had thrown Osmund Kettleblack (and his brother Osfryd) into
the dungeon within hours of Cersei’s confessing that she had taken both men as lovers. That left only
Trant, the feeble Boros Blount, and Qyburn’s mute monster Robert Strong to protect the young king and
royal family.

Only after Tommen and his kittens were escorted off to the royal bedchamber by Ser Boros did their talk turn to the queen’s trial.

Here we learn that Meryn Trant holds the bridge and Boros Blount is with the King ( I assume within or just outside his bedroom), neither of them will resist Robert Strong since they are cowards and Cerseis creatures to the bone.

From Fire and Blood I (the part where Aegon III and his brother are besieged during the regency) we know that you can basically be besieged in Maegors Holdfast, it's a castle within the castle.

So IMHO the one who takes control of Tommen within Maegors Holdfast first after the death of the current Regent will get the regency. When Robert dies Renly and/or Littlefinger (it's too long since i read AGOT) suggest a similar scheme.

Varys murdered Kevan and he will inform Qyburn and Cersei about the regents death through his little mice, before the word spreads to the tyrells. Qyburn will summon Robert strong and whatever lannister guards or Mountains men there are and they will make for Tommen and Cersei. As soon as they have him in their custody they will make him turn over the regency to Cersei. By the time Mace Tyrell finds out (probably in the morning after kevans death) they will be already safe within Maegors. With Robert Strong playing the part of Sandoq the Shadow (who is mute as well IIRC) in fire and blood.

Then there will be a short phase of stalemate between Cersei and Mace with him being the Hand and having control over the Red Keep, Kingslanding and the realm and Cersei being besieged and holding Tommen in Maegors Holdfast, similar to the events in Fire and Blood. In the meantime the High Sparrow and the Dornish will be informed as well by Varys and the news of the fall of Stormsend will reach KL, thus forcing some sort of compromise between Mace and Cersei(in the face of the common enemy the Dornish and FAegon), with her regaining some power after her trial and Mace remaining the Hand and Margaery being declared innocent by Tommen.

 

[Lord Varys]

46 minutes ago, Loras said:

I do think the two Sand Snakes have to have some significant impact on the story to justify their inclusion beyond escorting Myrcella home and making friends with the High Sparrow.  What you outline here is more or less what I expect to happen in the fall of King's Landing - His High Holiness declaring Aegon king and some sort of war in the streets of King's Landing to kick off.

It would be great if Tyene got something to do as a septa in the High Septon's good graces, but we have to keep in mind that chances are very low that she is already in KL. Nym and Myrcella aren't, and while chances are that Tyene didn't travel with them - or left their party before they get close to the city so she can infiltrate the Faith on her own - we don't hear anything about her taking a ship (which could get her quicker to KL) - so I don't think speculation about her already having the ear of the High Septon do have much merit at this point.

If she gains access to his inner circle she might wield considerable influence further down the road, though, especially when the Faith has to choose between Aegon and Daenerys later in the story.

If there were a Faith trial conducted against Margaery after all, then I always liked the idea of Tyene being one of the judges - something that could make sense if the seven judges were supposed to play the roles of the Seven. Tyene would be the perfect choice for the Maiden in such a setting, and for that the High Septon may not yet trust her completely - especially if he wants to send the message that he is impartial and not staffing all the judges with his cronies (he himself would likely chair the judges, anyway).

46 minutes ago, Loras said:

I think this is especially likely if Mace does not deliver Margaery for trial - while @Lord Varys has made convincing arguments that Cersei's trial may still go ahead, it is still possible that Mace, the power in the realm will defy the Faith.  Could this be encouragement enough for the High Sparrow to side with Aegon?

This would definitely add to such a course, but AFfC made it pretty clear that the sparrows don't need a lot of convincing in that department. They used Tommen and Cersei for their own agenda and then they effectively turned on them.

The High Septon is effectively suicidal by turning against both queens since that is an attack on both factions controlling the Iron Throne, and a great personal insult to King Tommen himself. If Tommen were to live long enough to one day rule in his own right the High Septon could be pretty sure that he would make a mortal enemy of that king by ways of imprisoning and accusing his mother and wife - and even more so, if he were to actually convict and execute one of both of those women.

In fact, no self-respecting son can forget Cersei's walk of shame, either. Tommen never witnessed it, but he would eventually learn about it and nobody could be sure that he would not want to avenge the honor of his mother. Tywin Lannister also suffered a lot of humiliations of his family and father for years but eventually he restored the honor of his house and dealt with all the people who had had a laugh at the expense of Lord Tytos.

The High Septon would be foolish if he expected he could get away with all he pulled.

In light of the fact that Varys disguised as a begging brother when he went underground in ASoS we can speculate that there might be more to the sparrow movement than just the sparrow movement. The new High Septon might know that a Targaryen restoration is imminent, and this may have been the reason why he antagonized King Tommen and his government to the degree that he did.

But even if that isn't the case - the sparrows are looking for a savior and they don't like the abomination Tommen. They know Aegon is out there, so he is the king the High Septon will back, and that is going to settle the issue. If the Faith denounces Tommen/Myrcella as bastards born of incest and adultery while at the same time proclaiming that Prince Aegon is actually Rhaegar's son and the rightful king, the Lannister/Tyrell puppet king is finished for good.

46 minutes ago, Loras said:

I actually don't think Myrcella is in any danger from the Sand Snakes.  While Nym is constantly talking about murdering Tommen, they never discuss murdering Myrcella.  I think the most logical explanation for this is that the Sand Snakes know Myrcella and have a relationship with her.  Their reaction to Doran revealing Cersei's plan to murder Trystane is telling about the Sand Snake psyche - Nym describes it as monstrous, and Obara expresses that this would be terrible because Trystane is just a boy.

With Myrcella one has to consider another crucial plot piece people rarely think about - she knows Arianne wanted to prop her up as queen to fight Tommen, and she also knows Arianne's ally, Gerold Dayne, tried to kill her and disfigured her. She didn't talk about that to Balon Swann, but if she were to get back to KL she would reveal this to the Tyrells and her mother.

And that certainly would mark the end of any Iron Throne-Dorne alliance on the side of the Lannisters/Tyrells.

Kevan suspects Mace intends to marry Myrcella to Willas if/once the Dornish betrothal is dissolved, so assuming Myrcella tells the court about what actually transpired in Dorne we can expect this to have repercussions, too.

46 minutes ago, Loras said:

As I said previously, I don't think Cersei needs the additional guilt of being the cause of her childrens' deaths.  She already has the prophecy that she feels that she cannot escape from.  Having Cersei be complicit (even inadvertently) takes away from the hopelessness of being trapped in prophecy.

Oh, but that would actually be pretty sweet considering the prophecy never states how her children will die. Only that they will all predecease Cersei. Her realizing she greatly contributed to this happening would only increase her madness.

I mean, chances are that she is going to realize that the queen who is going to steal all from her is going to be not Margaery and not Daenerys (who should only show up when she lost everything) but Arianne. She is one of the most beautiful women around, unlike Margaery (who is just pretty) and she is very likely going to be Aegon's queen.

She will realize that a lot of the stuff that happened wouldn't have happened if she hadn't tried to ruin Margaery.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

This makes sense.  It wouldn't be unusual for George to change the sample chapters after they have been published, as we saw with 'The Queenmaker' back when it was 'Prologue III'.  It does feel as though this chapter was published by George because he didn't want the murder and more specifically, how it is carried out, to be spoiled by the show.

Yeah, exactly. And there is a reason why we didn't get a Jon, Cersei, Jaime, Brienne, Melisandre, Dany, Davos, etc. chapter, despite the fact that many of those might have been finished by the time he was still releasing sample chapters. He is sort of happy to reveal information about some side narratives, things we know would happen on the basis of ADwD (like the two battles) but there are no spoilers on any of the dangling cliffhangers.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I'm not sure whether she will have learned patience through her experience with the Faith.  I think the fact that she can no longer rely on her beauty as a means of influence nor her reputation will encourage her to be more introverted.  However, I also don't see her being able to accept full responsibility for herself and will hold Jaime to account for leaving her.  Cersei is going to have to rely on her inner skills rather than her physical attributes.  

A hint in the direction that she learned a lesson is that she meekly asks Kevan to send for Taena. She wants to continue her plots, but does so in an unsuspecting manner.

But we have to wait for her first post-walk chapter to assess her state of mind and especially her feelings towards her dear uncle. I think she will be both be glad about his death - because she knows he played a key role in her walk - while at the same time being very afraid that she is next and that without Kevan there to protect her from her other enemies she cannot last much longer.

And to be sure - Cersei is still beautiful. She is only in her mid-thirties, and while she started to gain some weight, she is neither fat nor does she has many wrinkles. Seduction won't work in KL all that well now with the walk memory so fresh, but it could work back in the West or at other places.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

It is interesting, isn't it, how popular opinion on what will happen next seems to change.  I remember when ADWD was first released and many people believed that Cersei's days were numbered and that she would be killed off either at her trial or very early in Winds.

I never thought she would be killed since she was just introduced as a POV, and especially her walk chapter was such powerful stuff. That wasn't the end of her story. But for me it was always clear since ADwD that she had to leave KL soon or else she might be killed or reduced to the status of an impotent captive. That wouldn't be a very interesting story. And there is all the talk from George that we are going to see the Rock eventually, and Cersei's talk about considering but dismissing the idea to move the royal court to Casterly Rock, etc. that it seems pretty likely she would eventually go there.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I can't say that I've noticed any foreshadowing that Cersei and Euron will form an alliance - other than obviously this is what happens in the TV show.  I do think that you are right, that Cersei will return to Casterly Rock and raise her banners there.  

Those things sort of go hand in hand. If you consider how Cersei could hope to escape the Tyrells and return back home without being captured then the only way to do so would be by ship. She cannot go on foot/by horse, because she doesn't have an army and the Tyrells would easily capture her. Not to mention the danger of crossing the Riverlands with only a small retinue.

But if she goes west by ship, she will have to go around Westeros and that's how she will meet with - and marry - Euron. Depending how the time line goes news about Euron's victory over the Redwynes might even reach Cersei before she leaves KL, so he will become her natural ally then. Her enemies are the Tyrells, and Euron just crushed the biggest fleet of the Reach.

Euron should take possession of the Arbor after he has crushed the Redwyne fleet, so this would be the place where Cersei is going to meet with him.

I don't see Cersei being able to return to Casterly Rock overland.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

Interestingly, your response has brought to mind 'The Battle of the Bells', where Connington in 'The Griffin Reborn' regrets not burning down Stoney Sept in his efforts to find Robert Baratheon.  Do you think that Connington, in his search for another Baratheon - if Cersei does manage to escape the Red Keep with her son - will, in his quest to be more like Tywin Lannister, destroy parts of King's Landing?

Not necessarily then - but that fantasy certainly could eventually cause him to set up KL for burning should the city be about to fall to either Euron/Cersei or Daenerys. If there is a guy desperate enough to do something like that rather than accept another humiliating defeat it could be Connington. Especially since he is a dead man walking already, one who might grow more and more unhinged as his illness progresses.

But that's very difficult to project since we have no idea how long he can hide his sickness, nor what's going to happen when Aegon and his other allies find out.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I have considered that Mace wouldn't allow Nym to join the council, though again part of this will be determined by how many spears come with Nym to the capital.  It should also be considered that this is Dorne showing that it is part of the alliance with the Lannisters and Tyrells.  Surely Mace or Randyll would not be foolish enough to prevent the Dornish from taking their seat at the council, particularly if they feel that they can use Dorne to deal with Aegon's rebels.

Yes, to a point that makes sense, but keep in mind what I wrote about Myrcella above. If she tells her mother/Mace and Randyll that Arianne Martell wanted to crown her queen and that the Martells are to be blame for the attempt on her life I don't think Nym is going to get that council seat.

I think they travel with a couple of hundred spearmen - not a small retinue, but hardly a match for tens of thousands of Tyrell men (nor thousands of Goldcloaks).

Chances are that Mace would make Nym and her retinue into an honored guest/hostage against her uncle until the man proves his loyalty and joins with the Iron Throne against the pretender Aegon in the Stormlands.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I've bolded the section on losing his helmet.  This absolutely has to happen.  Areo Hotah's second chapter opens with: "Let us look upon his head."  Lady Nym is obsessed with Gregor (she speaks about him in every scene she appears in) and I think that shewill have some sort of reckoning with Gregor at the climax of her storyline.

For me, if Cersei's trial was to go ahead, it would make for better reading that Robert wasn't revealed at this point, but during Cersei's flight from KL - when Lady Nym comes for Tommen during the sack.  

That being said - the drama of the scene that you are describing is incredible.

Yeah, I like the scene very much myself, it is one of the images I really expect to see in the book. And the chaos following that, in combination with a virtual (or literally) unstoppable undead monster could certainly provide Cersei with the cover to escape into the city and eventually to a ship - especially if Qyburn prepared things so she could slip away after her victorious trial was over. 'Ser Robert' should be able to cut through men as if they weren't there. The only way they could stop him, I guess, would be if they could knock him on the ground and hack him to pieces - but the latter should be impossible while he wears that super armor. Fire should work as well, but people would have to know that to try it.

For the Dornish gang in KL that revelation is going to mark the end of a Lannister/Tyrell-Dorne deal, and perhaps it will also have ripple effects on Arianne's decision if Nym or Tyene have the means to send her a letter. If not then Arianne will have to conclude herself that she wants to team up with Aegon.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I'm not so sure, I think thematically it is important that the Sand Snakes are at least given an opportunity to carry out their revenge.  The more responses I write in this thread, the more I think that I would like one of the Snakes to not carry out the child killing and end the cycle.  As I mention in my post above, none of the snakes want Myrcella to die - but Nym repeatedly says she wants Tommen to die.

Sure, could happen during the fall of the city, mirroring the murder of Elia and the children. But it could also be an accident, there are so many ways for Tommen to die.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

I would be very interested to read Arianne's thoughts if the person opposing her and Aegon's army was the very person that she went out of her way to try and crown.

But that could happen considering Arianne is the person who is to be blamed for her injuries and disfigurement. She won't forget that, and unlike Tommen she is smart and forceful.

Keep in mind we never met/saw Myrcella after Darkstar's attempt on her life. I'd not surprised if she realized the danger she was in and played the Dornish until she felt she could do something about her situation.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

Absolutely agree here.  This time around it seems that people believe Martin when he says he won't be adding any more viewpoint characters... but every single time he has said that another one or two pop up.  I don't see how the internal politics of King's Landing could be resolved in the early parts of TWOW without another viewpoint character.

Yes, I felt that very strongly once ADwD was over. Not adding more POVs there would greatly reduce the amount of scenes one could show, and the collapse of Tommen's government isn't something we want to read about in reports and stuff.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

If I were to choose, I'd take Lady Nym - though I am completely biased by head-canon on this character.  I just think that she has so much internal conflict that is so essential to the plot... would she really murder Tommen to continue the cycle of blood OR is child murder a step too far?  Though I would also love a Loras viewpoint.  Maybe I just want another LGBT+ viewpoint to go along with JonCon.

If she and Myrcella get to court she would be my favorite choice as well. Loras is interesting because he would be a good Tyrell POV (and I want one of those) and because he could provide us with more background on Renly and his relationship with him, and because he is right now on Dragonstone and I'd like a firsthand account on what happened there and how the people there are right now - Maester Pylos, Rolland Storm, etc.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

Yeah, Cersei I could cover so many things!  The arrival of Nym, the reunion with Myrcella (I'm really looking forward to this), preparations for the trial, and the double murder.  And I think her second chapter would then be the trial itself (if it happens ;-)) - but those chapters would come in very quick succession.

If the timetable on the trials doesn't change, Cersei 2 could indeed be the trial-by-combat. Cersei 1 would be her learning about the double murder and her being questioned/arrested by Mace and Randyll, her fearing for her life, and Qyburn at the end coming up with an escape plan.

23 minutes ago, Loras said:

Despite this being a thread about the two queens, I haven't discussed Margaery much.  What do you think will happen with her? 

That is pretty much impossible to say. It would depend whether there is a trial or not, and then what happens to Tommen and how House Tyrell goes in the Aegon struggle. Will they join him before or after he takes the capital? Or are going to continue to fight him even then? What happens to her father, etc. At this point she should be pretty safe, having her own guard around her, but we don't know what would happen.

If there were a trial, I'm not sure she would be acquitted. But I don't think there will since without a new POV (then likely either Margaery herself, Mace, Randyll, one of the cousins, Loras, or Tyene) we would not even be able to witness said trial, since it is not very likely Cersei would bother much with attending that thing - assuming she were still in the city at that point.

1 hour ago, Bironic said:

Maybe you underestimate your namesake Lord Varys

Kevan:  Oh, Dorna. Pain washed over him. He closed his eyes, opened
them again. “There are … there are hundreds of Lannister guardsmen in this castle.”

Varys: “But none in this room, thankfully. This pains me, my lord. You do not deserve to die alone on
such a cold dark night. There are many like you, good men in service to bad causes … but you were
threatening to undo all the queen’s good work, to reconcile Highgarden and Casterly Rock, bind the
Faith to your little king, unite the Seven Kingdoms under Tommen’s rule. So …”

I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece
will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will
suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and
mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s
End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

So Varys wants Cersei in some form of power after the murders of Kevan and Pycelle. He doesnt want the Tyrells in complete control.

“Hire the Mountain’s men,” Ser Kevan suggested. “Red Ronnet will have no further use for
them.” He did not think that Mace Tyrell would be so clumsy as to try to murder either Pycelle or Swyft,
but if guards made them feel safer, let them have guards.

The dry moat surrounding Maegor’s Holdfast was three feet deep in snow, the iron spikes that
lined it glistening with frost. The only way in or out of Maegor’s was across the drawbridge that spanned
that moat. A knight of the Kingsguard was always posted at its far end. Tonight the duty had fallen to Ser
Meryn Trant. With Balon Swann hunting the rogue knight Darkstar down in Dorne, Loras Tyrell gravely
wounded on Dragonstone, and Jaime vanished in the riverlands, only four of the White Swords
remained in King’s Landing, and Ser Kevan had thrown Osmund Kettleblack (and his brother Osfryd) into
the dungeon within hours of Cersei’s confessing that she had taken both men as lovers. That left only
Trant, the feeble Boros Blount, and Qyburn’s mute monster Robert Strong to protect the young king and
royal family.

Only after Tommen and his kittens were escorted off to the royal bedchamber by Ser Boros did their talk turn to the queen’s trial.

Here we learn that Meryn Trant holds the bridge and Boros Blount is with the King ( I assume within or just outside his bedroom), neither of them will resist Robert Strong since they are cowards and Cerseis creatures to the bone.

From Fire and Blood I (the part where Aegon III and his brother are besieged during the regency) we know that you can basically be besieged in Maegors Holdfast, it's a castle within the castle.

So IMHO the one who takes control of Tommen within Maegors Holdfast first after the death of the current Regent will get the regency. When Robert dies Renly and/or Littlefinger (it's too long since i read AGOT) suggest a similar scheme.

Varys murdered Kevan and he will inform Qyburn and Cersei about the regents death through his little mice, before the word spreads to the tyrells. Qyburn will summon Robert strong and whatever lannister guards or Mountains men there are and they will make for Tommen and Cersei. As soon as they have him in their custody they will make him turn over the regency to Cersei. By the time Mace Tyrell finds out (probably in the morning after kevans death) they will be already safe within Maegors. With Robert Strong playing the part of Sandoq the Shadow (who is mute as well IIRC) in fire and blood.

Then there will be a short phase of stalemate between Cersei and Mace with him being the Hand and having control over the Red Keep, Kingslanding and the realm and Cersei being besieged and holding Tommen in Maegors Holdfast, similar to the events in Fire and Blood. In the meantime the High Sparrow and the Dornish will be informed as well by Varys and the news of the fall of Stormsend will reach KL, thus forcing some sort of compromise between Mace and Cersei(in the face of the common enemy the Dornish and FAegon), with her regaining some power after her trial and Mace remaining the Hand and Margaery being declared innocent by Tommen.

That puts too much agency into Varys' hands. Varys wants the Tyrells and Cersei to destroy each other, not give any of them the means to reach a compromise.

The scenario of another secret siege is intriguing, but that would be something for a later time, not with Cersei right there. I very much doubt Varys will inform Qyburn about the murder, nor is there any chance that Cersei will be informed about this before the Tyrells. She is in Maegor's, and the only secret way in Maegor's is the king's own escape route, unconnected to the other tunnels. There is no way that Cersei receives word about what transpired before the Tyrells.

Even if Qyburn were to get word first, he cannot enter Maegor's without the leave of the late Lord Regent, nor see the dowager queen without permission. And any servant, guardsman, etc. finding the bodies would immediately raise a general alarm, not keep the news to himself.

I agree that Cersei certainly could try and perhaps successfully seize Maegor's and the king's person - depending how many Lannister guardsmen are in Maegor's Holdfast - but that wouldn't result in a compromise at all. Cersei has a couple of hundred men, and Mace has tens of thousands. They would storm Maegor's rather than compromise with her - or they would just starve them out.

Not to mention that such an action would only play into Mace's hands - it would make Cersei look guilty even more, as if she had murdered her uncle, the Lord Regent, so she could seize the regency again.

Also, you have to keep in mind that Margaery resides in Maegor's as well, and she is also surrounded by her own contingent of guardsmen. If Cersei were to take her prisoner this could give Mace pause, but I don't think that's a likely scenario.

Especially since if Nym and Myrcella were to show up Mace would have Cersei's other child as a hostage. He could afford to see Tommen dead to then crown Myrcella and marry her to Willas. Cersei doesn't have that luxury.

In any case, any agreement they might make under those circumstances wouldn't hold. It would all be lies since Cersei has no lasting power. As soon as she opens up Maegor's the Tyrells would arrest her no matter what they promised before. It could only end in that fashion.

But it is a nice idea, I grant you that.

[Loras]

10 hours ago, Bironic said:

Here we learn that Meryn Trant holds the bridge and Boros Blount is with the King ( I assume within or just outside his bedroom), neither of them will resist Robert Strong since they are cowards and Cerseis creatures to the bone.

While I agree with you that Boros and Meryn are cowards, I think its worth noting just how feeble Ser Boros is at the end of 'A Dance with Dragons'.  Kevan notes that Boros has grown heavy around the face and gut, and that he is leaning against the wall of the chamber rather than standing.  There are a number of theories about Boros already being dead at this point, or being poisoned as the food taster.  Boros is going to be one of the early casualties of 'The Winds of Winter'.

10 hours ago, Bironic said:

So Varys wants Cersei in some form of power after the murders of Kevan and Pycelle. He doesnt want the Tyrells in complete control.

Varys expects Cersei to have some sort of agency when it comes to blaming the Tyrells, I would agree.  Though I wonder whether he is just expecting her to plot against them rather than exercise any real power.  We also have to consider the role of Randyll Tarly as I don't think it was a coincidence that the first time we meet him on page that he is doing justice in Maidenpool.

 

10 hours ago, Bironic said:

Varys murdered Kevan and he will inform Qyburn and Cersei about the regents death through his little mice, before the word spreads to the tyrells. Qyburn will summon Robert strong and whatever lannister guards or Mountains men there are and they will make for Tommen and Cersei.

This implies that you think that Qyburn knows that he is being manipulated by Varys.  I think that Qyburn is who he says he is: a disgraced maester who joined the Bloody Mummers because they allowed him to continue his research.  I know there are a tonne of theories about who he is working for but I really think he is just working with Cersei.

Varys is allowing him to continue his work in the black cells for some reason, probably because he knows what the Dornish reaction to the reveal of Ser Robert Strong will be - forcing the Dornish to work with Aegon.  

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I very much doubt Varys will inform Qyburn about the murder, nor is there any chance that Cersei will be informed about this before the Tyrells. She is in Maegor's, and the only secret way in Maegor's is the king's own escape route, unconnected to the other tunnels. There is no way that Cersei receives word about what transpired before the Tyrells.

Even if Qyburn were to get word first, he cannot enter Maegor's without the leave of the late Lord Regent, nor see the dowager queen without permission. And any servant, guardsman, etc. finding the bodies would immediately raise a general alarm, not keep the news to himself.

I think that Lord Varys is right here.  Cersei will likely be one of the last characters in the King's Landing plot to find out about the murders of Pycelle and Kevan.  Her internal monologue will be interesting here because it is implied in the Epilogue that Pycelle did actually produce Moon Tea for Margaery - which I had originally thought was a rouse constructed by Cersei.  She also won't like being one of the last to learn about the deaths.

The problem here is going to be the limitation of Cersei's viewpoint.  She is still effectively a prisoner, which on a chapter quality level is a great thing - George writes awesome chapters when the characters are prisoners - but maybe not so ideal in move the story forward for the KL angle of the Aegon plot.

I think that if this thread has shown anything it is that there are so many moving pieces in the resolution of this part of the King's Landing plot, that Cersei's viewpoint alone will present George with a major challenge.  It reminds me of the resolution to the Meereenese knot, that required Barristan to be elevated to viewpoint status to solve.

[Loras]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If she gains access to his inner circle she might wield considerable influence further down the road, though, especially when the Faith has to choose between Aegon and Daenerys later in the story.

If there were a Faith trial conducted against Margaery after all, then I always liked the idea of Tyene being one of the judges - something that could make sense if the seven judges were supposed to play the roles of the Seven. Tyene would be the perfect choice for the Maiden in such a setting, and for that the High Septon may not yet trust her completely - especially if he wants to send the message that he is impartial and not staffing all the judges with his cronies (he himself would likely chair the judges, anyway).

I think that our first interaction with Tyene during 'Winds' will be in a Cersei chapter, where Cersei has no idea who she is dealing with - but the audience will.  Martin does explain the rotational system that is in place for Cersei's novices (though I think that Tyene may be slightly too old for this role, she is described as innocent looking) in the Epilogue.  

It would be a neat nod to the audience if Tyene appears in the same chapter that Boros finally dies.

The thing with Tyene, in a similar way to Nym's concealed weapons, is that Martin has added a master poisoner to the cast of characters.  So I think the question is who, when, and why, rather than if she will poison someone in the next novel.  

If Margaery's trial does go ahead, I agree that it would make sense for Tyene to represent the Maiden - but again, I think it will be the audience rather than the characters who know the significance of who this character is (similar to Tom O'Sevens I guess).

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

With Myrcella one has to consider another crucial plot piece people rarely think about - she knows Arianne wanted to prop her up as queen to fight Tommen, and she also knows Arianne's ally, Gerold Dayne, tried to kill her and disfigured her. She didn't talk about that to Balon Swann, but if she were to get back to KL she would reveal this to the Tyrells and her mother.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, to a point that makes sense, but keep in mind what I wrote about Myrcella above. If she tells her mother/Mace and Randyll that Arianne Martell wanted to crown her queen and that the Martells are to be blame for the attempt on her life I don't think Nym is going to get that council seat.

This is actually a good point and one that Doran and Arianne, as well as many reads don't consider.  Arianne does seem to be convinced that Myrcella will behave in exactly the way she is supposed to - and in Dorne she must have done so.  We know this because Ser Balon is hunting Darkstar.

I do think that this is a piece of information that will have to be revealed at some point as it doesn't make too much sense for Myrcella to lie about the nature of her attack without the pressure of the Dornish.  I guess some of this is determined by how much her relationship with Trystane means to her? Both Arys and Arianne seem to think that Myrcella and Trystane are very fond of one another.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Chances are that Mace would make Nym and her retinue into an honored guest/hostage against her uncle until the man proves his loyalty and joins with the Iron Throne against the pretender Aegon in the Stormlands.

Yes, I think this is likely.  The Arianne storyline is probably the one I'm most looking forward to in the next book and how this impacts on the KL plot will be significant.  While I don't think that Nym will survive Aegon taking King's Landing, I do think she has a lot of ground to cover in the early parts of 'Winds'.  Though I can't see her becoming a hostage necessarily (or prisoner) until Arianne's decision is revealed.

The challenge for us as readers here is going to be managing the timeline.  If the Arianne sample chapters take place in the scope of 'Dance' then I would imagine that we aren't going to be visiting KL until at least 25% of the way through the book.  The same is true of Nym's arrival in KL - she left shortly after the Watcher, which takes place significantly before 'The Griffin Reborn' but hasn't arrived in 'Epilogue' - but we know that Storm's End hasn't fallen yet (information we receive in 'Arianne II').  I'm already confused!

I do think that Nym would have made it out of the danger zone before the landing of the golden company, as Doran has just received the news of the fleet leaving Volantis for Westeros during 'The Watcher'.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

light of the fact that Varys disguised as a begging brother when he went underground in ASoS we can speculate that there might be more to the sparrow movement than just the sparrow movement. The new High Septon might know that a Targaryen restoration is imminent, and this may have been the reason why he antagonized King Tommen and his government to the degree that he did.

But even if that isn't the case - the sparrows are looking for a savior and they don't like the abomination Tommen. They know Aegon is out there, so he is the king the High Septon will back, and that is going to settle the issue. If the Faith denounces Tommen/Myrcella as bastards born of incest and adultery while at the same time proclaiming that Prince Aegon is actually Rhaegar's son and the rightful king, the Lannister/Tyrell puppet king is finished for good.

This is really convincing and backed up by the role of the Faith in the early part of 'Fire and Blood - Part 1'.  I do believe that Varys has had some influence in stirring up the Sparrow movement.  I think it is clear from Dany's vision of the Mummer's Dragon that Aegon will be loved by the smallfolk and that will be in large part due to having the backing of the Faith.

I do wonder whether the incest/abomination angle will be part of the reason why Aegon will be forced to take a wife other than Daenerys?  Which could be a reason why he marries Arianne? (I'm not entirely convinced that she will marry Aegon though).

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is pretty much impossible to say. It would depend whether there is a trial or not, and then what happens to Tommen and how House Tyrell goes in the Aegon struggle. Will they join him before or after he takes the capital? Or are going to continue to fight him even then? What happens to her father, etc. At this point she should be pretty safe, having her own guard around her, but we don't know what would happen.

If there were a trial, I'm not sure she would be acquitted. But I don't think there will since without a new POV (then likely either Margaery herself, Mace, Randyll, one of the cousins, Loras, or Tyene) we would not even be able to witness said trial, since it is not very likely Cersei would bother much with attending that thing - assuming she were still in the city at that point

The Tyrell power comes from Tommen, unless Mace decides to set him aside and tries to marry Margaery to Aegon.  Though I can't see this happening either because Marge still faces a trial by the Faith.  

The limitations of Cersei's viewpoint are going to be frustrating in 'Winds' unless it is supplemented by another viewpoint - as you mention.  It is a bit like trying to use Quentyn as the only viewpoint in Meereen at the end of 'A Dance with Dragons', it is just too limited.

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

I never thought she would be killed since she was just introduced as a POV, and especially her walk chapter was such powerful stuff. That wasn't the end of her story. But for me it was always clear since ADwD that she had to leave KL soon or else she might be killed or reduced to the status of an impotent captive. That wouldn't be a very interesting story. And there is all the talk from George that we are going to see the Rock eventually, and Cersei's talk about considering but dismissing the idea to move the royal court to Casterly Rock, etc. that it seems pretty likely she would eventually go there.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A hint in the direction that she learned a lesson is that she meekly asks Kevan to send for Taena. She wants to continue her plots, but does so in an unsuspecting manner.

But we have to wait for her first post-walk chapter to assess her state of mind and especially her feelings towards her dear uncle. I think she will be both be glad about his death - because she knows he played a key role in her walk - while at the same time being very afraid that she is next and that without Kevan there to protect her from her other enemies she cannot last much longer.

And to be sure - Cersei is still beautiful. She is only in her mid-thirties, and while she started to gain some weight, she is neither fat nor does she has many wrinkles. Seduction won't work in KL all that well now with the walk memory so fresh, but it could work back in the West or at other places.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If the timetable on the trials doesn't change, Cersei 2 could indeed be the trial-by-combat. Cersei 1 would be her learning about the double murder and her being questioned/arrested by Mace and Randyll, her fearing for her life, and Qyburn at the end coming up with an escape plan.

The Cersei arc for the next book is going to be super exciting.  I didn't mean to imply that you thought that Cersei was doomed to die early in 'Winds' but that the conventional thinking at the time was that she would lose her trial and be executed.  Something has changed in the last few years that now most people think that she will survive.

I would also like to see Cersei interacting with Myrcella in her early chapters.  I think that her internal monologue is going to be so telling about how the character has changed and adapted.  I think you're right with your assessment about her feelings towards Kevan.  I think the deliberate comparison that George makes to their two dinners in AFFC/ADWD is absolutely essential to understanding the change in her character.  Kevan deliberately chooses an old doublet just in case she throws wine at him again.  It is pretty sad.

Cersei being arrested in her first chapter (for the murder of Kevan) would actually be really useful plotwise because it would allow Qyburn access to her that he doesn't have at the moment.  He has been working down there for a long time on Ser Robert and so is likely to know the various pathways and passages down there.

It is when you start to go down this rabbit hole of predicting the events for one character in the books, that you start to realise just how large TWOW will need to be!  What we have discussed so far is influenced by Cersei, Arianne, and JonCon viewpoints (the latter two will have four chapters even before we set our sights on KL).  Not to mention the fact that we have both presented arguments for an additional viewpoint due to Cersei being so limited!

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Those things sort of go hand in hand. If you consider how Cersei could hope to escape the Tyrells and return back home without being captured then the only way to do so would be by ship. She cannot go on foot/by horse, because she doesn't have an army and the Tyrells would easily capture her. Not to mention the danger of crossing the Riverlands with only a small retinue.

But if she goes west by ship, she will have to go around Westeros and that's how she will meet with - and marry - Euron. Depending how the time line goes news about Euron's victory over the Redwynes might even reach Cersei before she leaves KL, so he will become her natural ally then. Her enemies are the Tyrells, and Euron just crushed the biggest fleet of the Reach.

Euron should take possession of the Arbor after he has crushed the Redwyne fleet, so this would be the place where Cersei is going to meet with him.

I don't see Cersei being able to return to Casterly Rock overland.

 

Hmm... I'm really not convinced here.  Surely it will have to be the opposite, why would Euron ally himself with a disgraced queen who no longer has any power - she is fleeing the city?  Would it not make more sense for her to return to the Rock, call her banners behind one of her children, and then seek alliance with Euron because there are no other options?

Surely an escape along the Goldroad is more logical? (And much faster)

If the city gates were closed, would the logical answer not be that she was hiding somewhere in the city?  I guess it depends how quickly Cersei can escape as to how much of a head start she gets.  Hopefully Cersei wouldn't attempt to marry Myrcella to Euron...

 

[Loras]

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

If she and Myrcella get to court she would be my favorite choice as well. Loras is interesting because he would be a good Tyrell POV (and I want one of those) and because he could provide us with more background on Renly and his relationship with him, and because he is right now on Dragonstone and I'd like a firsthand account on what happened there and how the people there are right now - Maester Pylos, Rolland Storm, etc.

 

11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, I felt that very strongly once ADwD was over. Not adding more POVs there would greatly reduce the amount of scenes one could show, and the collapse of Tommen's government isn't something we want to read about in reports and stuff.

I completely agree with you on both of these points.  Loras is absolutely screaming out to be promoted to a viewpoint character, even if it is just a short term minor one.  It is time to put the Grand Tyrell Conspiracy theory to bed for good.

[Seams]

Resolution of the trials for Margaery and Cersei may be driven, in part, by the nature of the "games" being played by each woman.

Based on the developments in ADwD, I believe Cersei is turning into Robert, the king she despised. She sexually assaults Taena Merryweather because (her POV tells us) she wants to know how Robert felt when he forced himself upon Cersei. (I suspect there may be some wordplay around "Storm's End" and "Merryweather" as well.) There is also some complicated symbolism around Cersei's memory of breastfeeding Joffrey but then becoming a baby herself, gathered up in the arms of Ser Robert Strong - she is reborn as "Robert's" baby. (I bet this links to the scene where King Robert calls for a breastplate stretcher before conceding that he is in no shape to participate in a melee.) Cersei's walk of shame from the Sept to the Red Keep echoes one of Robert's first significant speeches in the crypt at Winterfell, when he tells Ned that King's Landing is wonderful because the women walk around nearly naked in the hot weather.

Margaery's game of thrones is symbolized by her ladies in waiting. These ladies are described as hens and Butterbumps goes through a complicated routine with hatching chicks to show us how little birds can be hidden and reborn. In addition to these "little birds," Margaery's long game with Tommen involves the three kittens she gives him. If those kittens reach maturity, I suspect, then Margaery wins her game. (Remember how Joffrey killed Tommen's pet fawn and made its skin into a vest? Of course, Joffrey also dissected a pregnant cat, offending King Robert.)

Myrcella plays cyvasse, and she is really good at it. She regularly defeats Trystane, and this is significant in terms of "game of thrones" symbolism. Doran tries to get Arianne to play, but Arianne is clueless about the reason behind the cyvasse table left in her tower room. I'm not sure Arianne will be much of a "player" in the game, although her Sand Snake cousins might be playing a different and better game.

In terms of symbolism clues, there is another couple of significant hints worth pondering:

- Lancel initially belongs to Kevan, as his son. Then he has an affair with Cersei and he feels genuinely enamored of the beautiful queen. Then he is married to Gatehouse Ami (Amerei) Frey but he does not consummate the match and soon leaves her behind, with all of the inheritance that Tywin had intended to become part of the Lannister alliance. Now, Lancel is part of the faith and Kevan is dead (along with Tywin and Pycelle). What does Lancel symbolize, and how does it affect the game that he has changed loyalties from Cersei to the High Sparrow?

- Why do the small folk throw so much food at Cersei? I believe that fruit and quite a lot of meat are thrown at her during her walk of shame. We know that the same small folk erupted into a so-called "Bread Riot" when Myrcella was escorted to the pier for her departure to Dorne. If there was a food shortage when Myrcella departed, how could there be an abundance of spare food after months of continued combat and with winter drawing even closer? Since this does not make sense from a logical perspective, I assume it has to have a symbolic purpose.

My own thinking is that Cersei is not setting herself up to be a regent. The Cersei-as-Robert symbolism is telling us that Cersei will rule as a usurper. If the parallel plays out closer to Robert's story, the conflict between Cersei and Margaery will not take the form of trials, but will be more like the one-on-one combat at the Ruby Ford.

[Bironic]

12 hours ago, Loras said:

This implies that you think that Qyburn knows that he is being manipulated by Varys.  I think that Qyburn is who he says he is: a disgraced maester who joined the Bloody Mummers because they allowed him to continue his research.  I know there are a tonne of theories about who he is working for but I really think he is just working with Cersei.

Varys is allowing him to continue his work in the black cells for some reason, probably because he knows what the Dornish reaction to the reveal of Ser Robert Strong will be - forcing the Dornish to work with Aegon.  

 

You got me wrong I dont think he knows that he's being manipulated by Varys and I agree with your perception that Qyburn works with Cersei. Thats why Varys will order his little mice to inform Qyburn about the death of Kevan and Pycelle (without obviuously telling that it was Varys who killed them and sent them to him). Qyburn then will "summon" Robert Strong and inform Cersei and take hold of Tommen. Because he knows Cersei needs him while the Tyrells do not. They have their own Maesters  and even a good candidate for Grand Maester (Gormon).

[Bironic]

12 hours ago, Loras said:

Varys expects Cersei to have some sort of agency when it comes to blaming the Tyrells, I would agree.  Though I wonder whether he is just expecting her to plot against them rather than exercise any real power.  We also have to consider the role of Randyll Tarly as I don't think it was a coincidence that the first time we meet him on page that he is doing justice in Maidenpool.

Well if she remains a captive without any real power she can not really plot against the Tyrells. She coudnt plot against them while being held in the Great sept nor afterwards when she was a captive in Maegors. So Varys needs her in a position where she can harm the Tyrell-Lannister alliance: this means the regency or a seat on the small council or at the very least freedom of the castle, not imprisoned like she is now.