US Politics: “How did we come to this...”

[DMC]

10 minutes ago, Fez said:

Also, they can carve up AOC's seat and remove a GOP seat.

Have you seen any estimations on how many seats NY is going to lose?  I did that last time but haven't looked into it yet.  Hm, looks like I found a way to waste some time...  ETA:  Quick google, looks like the consensus is NY is only gonna lose one seat.  Texas gains 3 though.  Yikes.  ETA 2:  Also, Montana gets one?  Who in the hell has been moving to Montana over the past 10 years?!?

Anyway, I'm not buying that the New York Democratic party is gonna target AOC.  She's demonstrated she's willing to build bridges numerous times within the caucus.  Agree to disagree.

[HoodedCrow]

@DMC Thanks. Absentee ballots on their way. I had hoped I could choose one of the three states that I have had residency, in a strategic manner. However, I will still have my vote counted in a blue state, come hell, high water or republican malfeasance.

 

The GOP seem to be the party of corruption leading the impulsive.

 

By the way, the cleansing continues with the halting of all visa holders. Come to Canada, all you gifted and talented people!

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

4 minutes ago, DMC said:

They're all trying to make a name for themselves.  That's why they were stupid and vain enough to run for public office. 

Lol, now that can open a fun can of worms. Oddly Obama is the only pol I've worked for who wanted a camera in their face. The others all ran from them. None of my poli-sci mentors wanted to deal with them either. 

Frankly I think most politicians that like the camera are probably shitty at their job. 

Quote

On AOC, let's not overestimate the need for "revenge" on behalf of Joe Crowley among entrenched Dems.  They may not like AOC, but they know which way the wind is blowing and aren't gonna invest their own capital in going after her simply for seeking retribution.

I'm not sure the pols care all that much, especially now and with how the winds have changed. But you must realize, a lot of money was lost because of her victory. A LOT. That's why I said she may need to tread lightly for a while, but, that's clearly not the case anymore. 

9 minutes ago, Fez said:

In their own districts? Yes, absolutely. The names I mentioned have had their seats for ages, and, unlikely Crowley, are demographic/cultural fits for their districts.

Perhaps, but in-district funding isn't important anymore. If I asked a generic person outside of NY who one of their MoCs was, who do you think wins that game, running away?

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lol, now that can open a fun can of worms. Oddly Obama is the only pol I've worked for who wanted a camera in their face. The others all ran from them. None of my poli-sci mentors wanted to deal with them either. 

Frankly I think most politicians that like the camera are probably shitty at their job. 

I think you're looking at this the wrong way.  Just because people don't like the camera - which I agree most politicians would rather shy away from such exposure - doesn't mean it's not part of their job to respond and perform for the media.  Hell, that goes for political scientists too.  Getting asked to be interviewed or whatever by a reporter is an opportunity, however anti-social or borderline agoraphobic we may be.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

7 minutes ago, DMC said:

Have you seen any estimations on how many seats NY is going to lose?  I did that last time but haven't looked into it yet.  Hm, looks like I found a way to waste some time...  ETA:  Quick google, looks like the consensus is NY is only gonna lose one seat.  Texas gains 3 though.  Yikes.  ETA 2:  Also, Montana gets one?  Who in the hell has been moving to Montana over the past 10 years?!?

Anyway, I'm not buying that the New York Democratic party is gonna target AOC.  She's demonstrated she's willing to build bridges numerous times within the caucus.  Agree to disagree.

Probably a tax loophole of some sort. 

My friends who went to University of Montana swore it was amazing though, so idk. 

[DMC]

Just now, Tywin et al. said:

Probably a tax loophole of some sort. 

My friends who went to University of Montana swore it was amazing though, so idk. 

Can't say I know anyone who's lived in Montana, but I have a cousin who lives in Idaho.  Every time I see her I ask what the hell she does in Idaho, then she says "this" and we start drinking.

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, Martell Spy said:

Meanwhile, Trump leads his diseased caravan all over the country to various super-spreader events

As of right this minute in Phoenix.  Why yes, Phoenix, in the state of Az, where they're running out of hospital beds and number of new cases is larger every day than the day before.  TV stations running clips of the deathcultists packed together waiting for him to arrive for the rally, no masks, circulating air vents blowing.  But my dears,  we must rally or we die from denial of narcissist's necessary supply!

[Ormond]

37 minutes ago, Fez said:

Because they're still angry about what happened with the Amazon HQ2? Also, they can carve up AOC's seat and remove a GOP seat. Hell, they could always do the baconmender and eliminate every GOP seat in the state; though I doubt they will.

What is the baconmender? When I google "baconmender" all I get is sites in Danish about bacon.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Can't say I know anyone who's lived in Montana, but I have a cousin who lives in Idaho.  Every time I see her I ask what the hell she does in Idaho, then she says "this" and we start drinking.

Sounds about right. I can still never remember if it's Idaho or Wyoming that has this legendary steakhouse, I think it's called the Wolf's Head, Wolf's Lodge or something like that.

Hmm, now that begs an interesting debate. I've always joked that Mississippi is the state I'd have the least interest in visiting, but some of those Mountain Western states would be in the race. Also, there's just no need to see either Dakota. I've been to both several times, they suck.

Some of you New Englanders get off light by the way.

But can't we all agree, what the fuck is the reason to go see Arkansas? Like, there aren't any good states around Arkansas, but I can at least make you a half assed argument as to why you should see them. Hell, the aforementioned Mississippi still has some ocean coast line, and I think my aunt told me her and my uncle spent a week there for like under $500, including the plane tickets. 

Fucking Arkansas. I knew there was a reason I've turned down the Clintons several times now for official photos, even if that may not have been the best of ideas. Still really regretting not getting that one with Obama when he was a Senator though. Oh well. 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

But can't we all agree, what the fuck is the reason to go see Arkansas?

Hope.

[Guy Kilmore]

20 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Sounds about right. I can still never remember if it's Idaho or Wyoming that has this legendary steakhouse, I think it's called the Wolf's Head, Wolf's Lodge or something like that.

Hmm, now that begs an interesting debate. I've always joked that Mississippi is the state I'd have the least interest in visiting, but some of those Mountain Western states would be in the race. Also, there's just no need to see either Dakota. I've been to both several times, they suck.

Some of you New Englanders get off light by the way.

But can't we all agree, what the fuck is the reason to go see Arkansas? Like, there aren't any good states around Arkansas, but I can at least make you a half assed argument as to why you should see them. Hell, the aforementioned Mississippi still has some ocean coast line, and I think my aunt told me her and my uncle spent a week there for like under $500, including the plane tickets. 

Fucking Arkansas. I knew there was a reason I've turned down the Clintons several times now for official photos, even if that may not have been the best of ideas. Still really regretting not getting that one with Obama when he was a Senator though. Oh well. 

The Theodore Roosevelt National Park and Badlands are pretty awesome, if you are into nature and stuff.

[Ormond]

27 minutes ago, DMC said:

Can't say I know anyone who's lived in Montana, but I have a cousin who lives in Idaho.  Every time I see her I ask what the hell she does in Idaho, then she says "this" and we start drinking.

You all know that Idaho was the USA's fastest growing state last year? 

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2019/popest-nation.html

Most of that growth was in the Boise metropolitan area, and there is actually an anti-growth political movement in Boise.

 

[Fez]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Have you seen any estimations on how many seats NY is going to lose?  I did that last time but haven't looked into it yet.  Hm, looks like I found a way to waste some time...  ETA:  Quick google, looks like the consensus is NY is only gonna lose one seat.  Texas gains 3 though.  Yikes.  ETA 2:  Also, Montana gets one?  Who in the hell has been moving to Montana over the past 10 years?!?

Anyway, I'm not buying that the New York Democratic party is gonna target AOC.  She's demonstrated she's willing to build bridges numerous times within the caucus.  Agree to disagree.

We'll see. Someone in New York is getting targeted, and I don't think it'll just be an attempt to remove a couple GOP seats (though I'm sure that'll happen). The last estimate I saw is that if New York only loses 1 seat its more of a NYC seat than upstate; unless they start getting even more creative in how they draw the lines.

Although, it's been nearly a century since Democrats controlled the New York redistricting process entirely, so who knows what they'll get up to. Maybe they will be vicious and try to pull an Ohio on the GOP.

26 minutes ago, Ormond said:

What is the baconmender? When I google "baconmender" all I get is sites in Danish about bacon.

It's the theoretical idea of gerrymandering New York so that there's not a single Republican congressional district in the state. You can pretty easily gerrymander the state so that's there's just a couple Republican seats that are vote sinks (like the reverse of what happened in Ohio). But if you want to eliminate them entirely the way to do it is to draw long, thin district lines that snake out from New York City to cover all of upstate New York. Like strips of bacon.

ETA: Here's an example:

 

[Zorral]

Loads of people are moving to Montana, particularly those who grew up in the upper northern midwest of ND, SD, Minnesota, Michigan and Illinois.  As soon as they graduate from college.  Many others went to university in Montana, and never wanted to leave.  (Montana higher ed does deep outreach to high school graduates in the region.)

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, DMC said:

Have you seen any estimations on how many seats NY is going to lose?  I did that last time but haven't looked into it yet.  Hm, looks like I found a way to waste some time...  ETA:  Quick google, looks like the consensus is NY is only gonna lose one seat.  Texas gains 3 though.  Yikes.  ETA 2:  Also, Montana gets one?  Who in the hell has been moving to Montana over the past 10 years?!?

Anyway, I'm not buying that the New York Democratic party is gonna target AOC.  She's demonstrated she's willing to build bridges numerous times within the caucus.  Agree to disagree.

 

1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

Probably a tax loophole of some sort. 

My friends who went to University of Montana swore it was amazing though, so idk. 

Billings has been enjoying a steady population and economic growth in the past 10 years. It has always been a trade hub for the north-west, and it looks like it's expanding in the oil and healthcare industries, and I think tech. So I don't know if the seat they get will necessarily go to a Republican.

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Fez said:

The last estimate I saw is that if New York only loses 1 seat its more of a NYC seat than upstate; unless they start getting even more creative in how they draw the lines.

Again, just looking at the basics, New York state as a whole has grown 0.4% since 2010 based on the 2019 estimates.  NYC has grown 2 percent.  That strongly indicates the eliminated seat will be upstate, not NYC.

4 minutes ago, Ormond said:

You all know that Idaho was the USA's fastest growing state last year? 

I did not.  Interesting thanks.  My cousin's family certainly has contributed to that increased birthrate.  I can't keep track of all the kids her kids are having, and she's only in her forties.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

25 minutes ago, DMC said:

Hope.

Fuck you. You don't even believe this. I lived in a developing country that was more advanced than Arkansas. There is no hope for them. 

9 minutes ago, Guy Kilmore said:

The Theodore Roosevelt National Park and Badlands are pretty awesome, if you are into nature and stuff.

I wasn't saying that the Midwest as a whole sucks. It has some cool things. But if you're an outsider, just visit Chicago or the Twin Cities. You really don't need to see the rest. Unless you what to see some hysterical landmarks. Or perhaps more aptly:
 

Fucking savages.
 

10 minutes ago, Corvinus85 said:

 

Billings has been enjoying a steady population and economic growth in the past 10 years. It has always been a trade hub for the north-west, and it looks like it's expanding in the oil and healthcare industries, and I think tech. So I don't if the seat they get will necessarily go to a Republican.

By trade hub, you mean a neighborhood in my city, and my city is just a neighborhood in a place like NYC or LA?

But we're coming for you Chicago! 

[Fez]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

Again, just looking at the basics, New York state as a whole has grown 0.4% since 2010 based on the 2019 estimates.  NYC has grown 2 percent.  That strongly indicates the eliminated seat will be upstate, not NYC.

I could be misremembering the details, but as I recall, after 2010, when New York lost 2 congressional seats, it was basically 1.5 upstate seats lost when it should have been an even split with the NYC region (partially due to fallout from Bloomberg filing a lawsuit challenging the census finding that Queens had lost about 1,000 population since 2000). So this time, the loss needs to be more of a downstate seat to help correct that imbalance.

[Corvinus85]

10 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

By trade hub, you mean a neighborhood in my city, and my city is just a neighborhood in a place like NYC or LA?

But we're coming for you Chicago! 

I can't speak to that, my own "city" is like a neighborhood in Billings.

[Zorral]

"E.U. May Exclude U.S. as It Reopens Borders, Citing Failures on Virus
European Union officials are racing to agree on who can visit the bloc as of July 1 based on how countries of origin are faring with new coronavirus cases. Americans, so far, are excluded, according to draft lists seen by The New York Times."

Which means Europeans won't be coming here either, since they'll have to quarantine for two weeks on return. So much for the great planning for reviving NYC's economy, which is geared solely, as far as I can see, on the conviction that hundreds of thousands of outsiders will be coming in every day.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/23/world/europe/coronavirus-EU-American-travel-ban.html?

Quote

 

European nations are currently haggling over two potential lists of acceptable visitors based on how countries are faring with the coronavirus pandemic. Both include China, as well as developing nations like Uganda, Cuba and Vietnam.

Travelers from the United States and the rest of the world have been excluded from visiting the European Union — with few exceptions mostly for repatriations or “essential travel” —- since mid-March. But a final decision on reopening the borders is expected early next week, before the bloc reopens on July 1.[....]