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Illyrio’s intentions


TheLastWolf

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On 6/27/2020 at 2:06 PM, Lord Lannister said:

I even believe the so called "usurper's assassins" that hounded them over the years might have been Illyrio's agents trying to herd them into his hands.

We hear that Jon Arryn had succeeded in arguing against sending anyone after the Targaryen kids. Dany notes that she never noticed anyone following, implying that it was just Viserys' imagination.

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When Viserys died and Dany escaped Illyrio's influence on the edge of the world, it was only then Illyrio went back to the original plan with (f)Aegon.

We hear from the GC that they were supposed to be part of the original plan with Viserys and the Dothraki. They were some of the only people that knew about Young Griff. I think he would have been part of that plot, with some way found to remove Viserys in favor of their more controllable candidate for the throne.

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1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Brienne was born in 280 and had two younger sisters who died in the cradle. That doesn't exactly leave time for her mother to run off and join the Kingswood Brotherhood.

It isn't known whether Brienne's sisters were born by Brienne's mother, whether they were her full-siblings or half-siblings. Also it isn't known about those two girls whether they were born by a woman/women that was/were Selvin's wife/wives or whether the mother/mothers of those girls was/were Selvin's mistress/mistresses. 

For example - Galladon's mother/Selvin's first wife; another woman/either Selvin's second wife, or his mistress, that gave birth to Brienne, and then Selvin and his second wife lied to everyone that newborn Brienne is their child; then this second wife later died while giving birth to Arianne or Alysanne, or both of them, in case if those girls were twins.

Or Galladon, Arianne and Alysanne were born by Selvin's wife, and he had only one wife. While Brienne was Selvin's child, born by his mistress, and presented as his wife's child. And later Selvin's wife died while giving birth to one of her children, or died because of some other reason.

Or Galladon was born by Selvin's only wife, and Brienne by a mistress, but was presented as his legitimate daughter. Then Selvin's wife died because of whatever reason, and later his daughters, Arianne and Alysanne, were born by one of Selvin's mistresses or by two of his mistresses. Because it isn't known about those girls whether they were Selvin's legitimate children, and whether they were born by the same mother, or by two different women, and whether any of those women were married to Selvin.

It's possible that GRRM intentionally made unclear what's the deal with Tarth family tree - no name for Selvin's wife, no mentioning about whether he had one or several, whether all of his children were legitimate, whether they all were born by the same woman.

And about Meris it is known that by 300 she had spent 20 years with sellswords companies. Brienne was born in 280. She's going to be (or already is) 20 in 300. So there is a possibility, that if Meris is her mother, then she departed from Westeros shortly after giving birth to Brienne. By early 281, when Kingswood Brotherhood had a confrontation with Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne, Meris/Wenda/Brienne's mother already left KB and 7K. She gave away her leadership over KB to Simon Toyne, in exchange for getting a place at Golden Company, that she got from Myles Toyne, captain-general of Golden Company and Simon's brother (or nephew, or son, or cousin).

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55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

It isn't known whether Brienne's sisters were born by Brienne's mother, whether they were her full-siblings or half-siblings. Also it isn't known about those two girls whether they were born by a woman/women that was/were Selvin's wife/wives or whether the mother/mothers of those girls was/were Selvin's mistress/mistresses. 

For example - Galladon's mother/Selvin's first wife; another woman/either Selvin's second wife, or his mistress, that gave birth to Brienne, and then Selvin and his second wife lied to everyone that newborn Brienne is their child; then this second wife later died while giving birth to Arianne or Alysanne, or both of them, in case if those girls were twins.

Or Galladon, Arianne and Alysanne were born by Selvin's wife, and he had only one wife. While Brienne was Selvin's child, born by his mistress, and presented as his wife's child. And later Selvin's wife died while giving birth to one of her children, or died because of some other reason.

Or Galladon was born by Selvin's only wife, and Brienne by a mistress, but was presented as his legitimate daughter. Then Selvin's wife died because of whatever reason, and later his daughters, Arianne and Alysanne, were born by one of Selvin's mistresses or by two of his mistresses. Because it isn't known about those girls whether they were Selvin's legitimate children, and whether they were born by the same mother, or by two different women, and whether any of those women were married to Selvin.

It's possible that GRRM intentionally made unclear what's the deal with Tarth family tree - no name for Selvin's wife, no mentioning about whether he had one or several, whether all of his children were legitimate, whether they all were born by the same woman.

And about Meris it is known that by 300 she had spent 20 years with sellswords companies. Brienne was born in 280. She's going to be (or already is) 20 in 300. So there is a possibility, that if Meris is her mother, then she departed from Westeros shortly after giving birth to Brienne. By early 281, when Kingswood Brotherhood had a confrontation with Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne, Meris/Wenda/Brienne's mother already left KB and 7K. She gave away her leadership over KB to Simon Toyne, in exchange for getting a place at Golden Company, that she got from Myles Toyne, captain-general of Golden Company and Simon's brother (or nephew, or son, or cousin).

In the absence of any indication of Selwyn having another wife or the children referred to being bastards, I think the logical conclusion is that they were full siblings. Your theory seems to rely on heavily stretched evidence based mostly on names. For example, going from "ae" being common in Valyrian names to Caffren, Clegane, and Walder being Valyrian names because they have an a before an e, even though there are letters inbetween.  I don't even think that "ae = Valyrian" is always true even when the letters follow each other. Is Bael the Bard a secret Valyrian? And how is that supposed to prove, or even imply, a relation to Brienne? When George uses names and aliases as hints, he does not tend to be subtle. E.g. Alleras (literally Sarella backwards), Arstan (the name of the lord of House Selmy and has a similar feel to Barristan), Griff (JonCon's sigil is a griffin), etc.

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24 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

In the absence of any indication of Selwyn having another wife or the children referred to being bastards, I think the logical conclusion is that they were full siblings.

Maybe, maybe not. Brienne did thought about Selwin's multiple mistresses, that he had a new one each year. Maybe he was like that even before Brienne's birth. And thus, any of his children could have been bastards, though it wasn't mentioned, because Brienne said/thought little about her family, and because GRRM intentionally gave just a tiny bit of information, to prevent readers from realising too soon who Brienne's mother was.

24 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I don't even think that "ae = Valyrian" is always true even when the letters follow each other. Is Bael the Bard a secret Valyrian?

No, it's not always true, some names/surnames with ae in them nevertheless are not Valyrian. For example - Craster, Mance Rayder, Samwell Tarly, Ferny (one of Craster's wives; like e...y in Maelys, Viserys, Daenerys), Bael.

28 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

When George uses names and aliases as hints, he does not tend to be subtle. E.g. Alleras (literally Sarella backwards), Arstan (the name of the lord of House Selmy and has a similar feel to Barristan), Griff (JonCon's sigil is a griffin), etc.

Her nickname is Pretty Meris, like e...y in Renly, Velaryon, Petyr Baelysh, Rhaenys, Visenya, Jaehaerys, Jocelyn, Lucerys, Jeyne Waters (Elaena Targaryen's bastard), Rosey (Aegon IV's bastard).

Jon Snow is subtle. Melysandre is also subtle.

44 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

And how is that supposed to prove, or even imply, a relation to Brienne?

What's in common between Brienne and Meris:

- blond hair; - lightly colored eyes; - both are taller than average women; - both are warriors; - both have mocking nicknames - Pretty Meris and Brienne the Beauty (which also has an ey in it); - the timing of Brienne's birth and Meris' arrival to Essos do match; - and originally Meris is from Westeros.

Based on this, Meris could be Brinne's mother. I'm not saying that she's definitely is her mother, only that she could be.

1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Your theory seems to rely on heavily stretched evidence based mostly on names.

Not only on names.

There's also a subtle connection between Kingswood Brotherhood and Blackfyres (thru Simon Toyne (leader of KB) and Myles Toyne (captain-general of Golden Company)). Connection between KB and Barristan Selmy and Jeyne Swann (he saved her from them). Connection between Blackfyres and Swanns (Larra Rogare is possibly Johanna Swann's daughter). Connection between Barristan and Blackfyres (he killed Maelys Blackfyre). Connection between Barristan and Swanns (he saved Jeyne Swann from KB, and served as a squire to Lord Swann). Connection between Swanns and Golden Company (Haldon mentioned to Tyrion a Swann-father and daughter (apparently Johanna Swann, possibly the matriarch of Blackfyres)). Multiple connections between Duncan the Tall and Blackfyres (based on which I'm sure that Duncan is son of Daemon I Blackfyre and princess Daenerys Targaryen). Connection between Duncan the Tall and Barristan Selmy (thru Duncan the Small, and both of them being a Kingsguards LC). There's no direct connection between Brienne and Wenda the White Fawn from Kingswood Brotherhood. Though there's an indirect connection between them thru Brienne's connection to her ancestor, Duncan the Tall, who is connected to Blackfyres, who are connected to Golden Company, who are connected to Myles Toyne, who is connected to Simon Toyne, who is connected to the Kingswood Brotherhood, that is connected to Wenda the White Fawn, who's name could actually be an alias that also connects her to Blackfyres and Golden Company and Selwin Tarth (because the main battle of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion happened on Wendwater Bridge, and Wendwater river is located not far from Tarth Island).

It is heavily stretched and complicated, though it doesn't mean that I'm wrong. If Meris is Brienne's mother, then eventually it will be revealed. If Brienne is Duncan's descendant on her mother's side, then, even without direct revelation that Meris is her mother, it will become clearer who Brienne's mother could be. Even if it won't be directly written in TWOW, at least there will be some clues about it.

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6 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Maybe, maybe not. Brienne did thought about Selwin's multiple mistresses, that he had a new one each year. Maybe he was like that even before Brienne's birth. And thus, any of his children could have been bastards, though it wasn't mentioned, because Brienne said/thought little about her family, and because GRRM intentionally gave just a tiny bit of information, to prevent readers from realising too soon who Brienne's mother was.

No, it's not always true, some names/surnames with ae in them nevertheless are not Valyrian. For example - Craster, Mance Rayder, Samwell Tarly, Ferny (one of Craster's wives; like e...y in Maelys, Viserys, Daenerys), Bael.

Her nickname is Pretty Meris, like e...y in Renly, Velaryon, Petyr Baelysh, Rhaenys, Visenya, Jaehaerys, Jocelyn, Lucerys, Jeyne Waters (Elaena Targaryen's bastard), Rosey (Aegon IV's bastard).

Jon Snow is subtle. Melysandre is also subtle.

What's in common between Brienne and Meris:

- blond hair; - lightly colored eyes; - both are taller than average women; - both are warriors; - both have mocking nicknames - Pretty Meris and Brienne the Beauty (which also has an ey in it); - the timing of Brienne's birth and Meris' arrival to Essos do match; - and originally Meris is from Westeros.

Based on this, Meris could be Brinne's mother. I'm not saying that she's definitely is her mother, only that she could be.

Not only on names.

There's also a subtle connection between Kingswood Brotherhood and Blackfyres (thru Simon Toyne (leader of KB) and Myles Toyne (captain-general of Golden Company)). Connection between KB and Barristan Selmy and Jeyne Swann (he saved her from them). Connection between Blackfyres and Swanns (Larra Rogare is possibly Johanna Swann's daughter). Connection between Barristan and Blackfyres (he killed Maelys Blackfyre). Connection between Barristan and Swanns (he saved Jeyne Swann from KB, and served as a squire to Lord Swann). Connection between Swanns and Golden Company (Haldon mentioned to Tyrion a Swann-father and daughter (apparently Johanna Swann, possibly the matriarch of Blackfyres)). Multiple connections between Duncan the Tall and Blackfyres (based on which I'm sure that Duncan is son of Daemon I Blackfyre and princess Daenerys Targaryen). Connection between Duncan the Tall and Barristan Selmy (thru Duncan the Small, and both of them being a Kingsguards LC). There's no direct connection between Brienne and Wenda the White Fawn from Kingswood Brotherhood. Though there's an indirect connection between them thru Brienne's connection to her ancestor, Duncan the Tall, who is connected to Blackfyres, who are connected to Golden Company, who are connected to Myles Toyne, who is connected to Simon Toyne, who is connected to the Kingswood Brotherhood, that is connected to Wenda the White Fawn, who's name could actually be an alias that also connects her to Blackfyres and Golden Company and Selwin Tarth (because the main battle of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion happened on Wendwater Bridge, and Wendwater river is located not far from Tarth Island).

It is heavily stretched and complicated, though it doesn't mean that I'm wrong. If Meris is Brienne's mother, then eventually it will be revealed. If Brienne is Duncan's descendant on her mother's side, then, even without direct revelation that Meris is her mother, it will become clearer who Brienne's mother could be. Even if it won't be directly written in TWOW, at least there will be some clues about it.

I want to clarify - when I am talking about "ae" names I mean names where the a is directly followed by the e. Daemon, Baelor, Maegor, etc. These are often Valryian, though not always IMO, since there is the example of Bael. I'm fairly certain that George has never said that names containing an a before an e with letters inbetween are Valyrian. I don't think there's anything to the "e and y" thing other than Valyrian names often having a y near the end and e being a very common vowel. Baelish doesn't even have a y and I'm pretty sure some of the other names, like Jeyne, are not Valyrian. Pretty and beauty aren't even names, they're descriptive words and there's zero reason to think they're of Valyrian origin.  I also don't get what the connection here regarding all these people is supposed to be. That Brienne is Valyrian and all these other people are too, thus they're all related? 

You can draw a few similarities between Meris and Brienne, but I don't think that's much to go on, especially because so far there's been no indication that the fate of Brienne's mother is even a mystery. If George was planning a twist related to this, you'd think he'd include some hints that directly relate to Brienne's mother. Say what you want about the Ashara Dayne theories, but at least George has built up some mystery around her while having her apparent death happen in a manner that leaves room for alternate speculation and theories. Brienne's mother has barely been mentioned at all. 

I also don't think Brienne has to be descended from Dunk through her mother. And even if Dunk and Old Nan did have (at least one) kid who is Hodor's grandparent, I don't think that means all of Dunk's descendants must be from Old Nan. 

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On 7/28/2020 at 8:28 AM, Lost Melnibonean said:
On 6/24/2020 at 6:24 PM, TheLastWolf said:

Lord Cheese has done so much for both Dany and fAegon’s causes…even with all the dangers and risks involved, that I cannot help but wonder WHY?

The answer is a long one

Ya, really loooooong. But it has a bunch of holes like most long explanations tend to,@Lost Melnibonean

Mostly they don't evoke corrections as people are really lazy to read all.  

And most of those points are pointing out the obvious. 

Of those holes, let me point out a few of those.... when I'm not occupied like now. But your points are really better than other lame theories BTW. 

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On 6/29/2020 at 6:09 PM, FictionIsntReal said:

We hear that Jon Arryn had succeeded in arguing against sending anyone after the Targaryen kids. Dany notes that she never noticed anyone following, implying that it was just Viserys' imagination.

We hear from the GC that they were supposed to be part of the original plan with Viserys and the Dothraki. They were some of the only people that knew about Young Griff. I think he would have been part of that plot, with some way found to remove Viserys in favor of their more controllable candidate for the throne.

It's entirely possible that the "assassins" could've just been Viserys' self inflated sense of importance. I suggested maybe they were Illyrio's agents to herd them into his protection because it would make sense. We don't know the circumstances of how Viserys and Dany ended up under Illyrio's influence exactly. But as you said, Robert definitely didn't send them because of Jon Arryn. 

But as I said the (f)Aegon plan was set into motion from the beginning. Viserys and Daenerys didn't seem to come into his influence until much later, and they had the benefit of having a pedigree no one would question unlike the pisswater prince.

That's why the Golden Company's plans kept changing. First they were going to fight with Viserys and the Dothraki. Then with Dany and her unsullied. It was only  after it was clear Illyrio had lost complete control of Dany that he went back to (f)Aegon, who as you say is more controllable. No reason the Golden Company would've known about him until he came of age and was ready though. 

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9 hours ago, Lord Lannister said:

It's entirely possible that the "assassins" could've just been Viserys' self inflated sense of importance. I suggested maybe they were Illyrio's agents to herd them into his protection because it would make sense. We don't know the circumstances of how Viserys and Dany ended up under Illyrio's influence exactly. But as you said, Robert definitely didn't send them because of Jon Arryn. 

But as I said the (f)Aegon plan was set into motion from the beginning. Viserys and Daenerys didn't seem to come into his influence until much later, and they had the benefit of having a pedigree no one would question unlike the pisswater prince.

That's why the Golden Company's plans kept changing. First they were going to fight with Viserys and the Dothraki. Then with Dany and her unsullied. It was only  after it was clear Illyrio had lost complete control of Dany that he went back to (f)Aegon, who as you say is more controllable. No reason the Golden Company would've known about him until he came of age and was ready though. 

Illyrio needed to be flexible for a plan of this scale.  He wants to overthrow the King of Westeros.  That is no small thing to accomplish.  

So anyway, what was his intention.  The most popular opinion says he's a Blackfyre and "Aegon" is too.  I can buy that.  Another idea says he was instructed by the Sealord to give those eggs to Princess Daenerys and wait.  That they are members of a secret order whose purpose is to stop the white walkers.  Some prophecy dictated for the Princess to marry into the Dothraki.  

A simple but very elegant proposal says he is an idealists whose definition of order is to have a Targaryen on the throne of Westeros.  That House has ruled for three hundred years.  An eternity in the short memories of people.  What good is having money unless you can use it to shape the world.  Isn't that what our billionaires are doing?  Hello Mr. Musk.  Today, in the United States, there are people who would give a lot of their own money to put the party they want in power.  

 

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