The Tattered Prince’s motives

[Lord Varys]

52 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Lord Varys has previously discussed that theory in this thread.

That is a rather old theory that has been discussed for years, actually.

52 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If he had sons of his own we might think he wanted to convert it to a hereditary monarchy, but we don't know of any children.

The point just is chances are that he doesn't want to be Prince of Pentos with the magisters keeping the right to slaughter him whenever they think they should blame him for something.

52 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Precisely. And after that he's been an exile, so there's less reason to think they would have done something he wanted avenged.

He certainly could want vengeance of the people who made him Prince of Pentos in the first place, because this certainly could have been a means to kill him if it was clear that the next Prince was to be sacrificed pretty soon into his 'reign'. I mean, it is quite clear that very few, if any, people in Pentos want that particular honor, especially when things don't look very good for Pentos.

52 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

It would definitely be embarassing for his family, but would that cause a really old established family to become poor? And why would he want revenge against his own son?

The idea would be that something like what Tatters did is anathema to Pentoshi tradition. Obviously nobody rich and spoiled would want to be a ritual sacrifice, yet people usually still take the honor/burden of the Prince on themselves once they are elected. Part of the reason why this might be the case could be that a family/house of a Prince who flees or rejects the honor - like Tatters - lose their noble status, wealth, etc.

52 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Does Illyrio really get to decide who is permitted in Pentos? I would think the entire Pentoshi establishment wouldn't be keen on the guy who betrayed his sacred duty showing up like there were no consequences to his actions.

Sure, I'd imagine that the other magisters would also not want such a guy back, but after Illyrio rose to the position he is in right now he would have been a position to force the others to go along with his return. After all, with Varys' help he would likely uncovered all their dirty little secrets - which clearly is what allowed him to rise as high as he did, in any case, enabling him to marry a cousin of the Prince.

The crucial plot relevance of Tatters is that he is Pentoshi and as such is in a position to know things about Varys and Illyrio nobody else does. This can be because of a personal connection/kinship, because he likes to keep informed about things in the home city he desires to rule one day, etc.

There is a reason why this guy is an ancient Pentoshi nobleman and not from some other place.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 6/27/2020 at 4:17 PM, Lord Varys said:

The point just is chances are that he doesn't want to be Prince of Pentos with the magisters keeping the right to slaughter him whenever they think they should blame him for something.

Right, that bit was already known about it.

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He certainly could want vengeance of the people who made him Prince of Pentos in the first place, because this certainly could have been a means to kill him if it was clear that the next Prince was to be sacrificed pretty soon into his 'reign'.

Plausibly, it's just that we have no reason to think that includes Illyrio.

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I mean, it is quite clear that very few, if any, people in Pentos want that particular honor, especially when things don't look very good for Pentos.

Do we know of anyone else trying to avoid it? It could be the case, but we haven't gotten that much info about Pentos.

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The idea would be that something like what Tatters did is anathema to Pentoshi tradition. Obviously nobody rich and spoiled would want to be a ritual sacrifice, yet people usually still take the honor/burden of the Prince on themselves once they are elected. Part of the reason why this might be the case could be that a family/house of a Prince who flees or rejects the honor - like Tatters - lose their noble status, wealth, etc.

If that were the case, could someone with as much familial shame obtain a marriage like Illyrio's first?

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Sure, I'd imagine that the other magisters would also not want such a guy back, but after Illyrio rose to the position he is in right now he would have been a position to force the others to go along with his return. After all, with Varys' help he would likely uncovered all their dirty little secrets - which clearly is what allowed him to rise as high as he did, in any case, enabling him to marry a cousin of the Prince.

But then his second marriage made him persona non grata. I know you've got the theory he was making all that up, but otherwise it would seem unlikely that would overcome the blackmail material which got him that first marriage.

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There is a reason why this guy is an ancient Pentoshi nobleman and not from some other place.

We've already gotten a consequence of that: he wants Pentos and got Barristan to agree to that price. GRRM has had the problem of his various characters being too spread out, and this helps to move the Meereen plot back west.

 

[Lord Varys]

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Plausibly, it's just that we have no reason to think that includes Illyrio.

I didn't say it did.

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

Do we know of anyone else trying to avoid it? It could be the case, but we haven't gotten that much info about Pentos.

No, which is what you could have drawn from the next couple of sentences I wrote. We do hear about a Prince bribing the Braavosi into peace so he would avoid being sacrificed - so, yes, Princes of Pentos don't look forward to being sacrificed. And one assumes it doesn't happen all that often or else this system would not work. They cannot sacrifice so many nobles that there are no further potential princes left, for instance.

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If that were the case, could someone with as much familial shame obtain a marriage like Illyrio's first?

With sufficient blackmail/bribing, one assumes he could. If he was just a nobody he could also push himself into the elite circles of the highborn and wealthy despite the fact that he is essentially just a common thief.

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

But then his second marriage made him persona non grata. I know you've got the theory he was making all that up, but otherwise it would seem unlikely that would overcome the blackmail material which got him that first marriage.

Oh, there are appearances and stuff - Illyrio could still have his fellow magisters and his princely cousin-in-law (if he was still around) by the balls and be no longer welcome in council and table because he did something that made it, by Pentoshi social norms, impossible for him - at least for a time - to be received/invited by the high and mighty. I mean, just because my reputation is ruined doesn't mean my means to destroy your reputation disappear into thin air.

That is pretty common in noble circles following a particular moral/social code. Women giving birth to illegitimate children, nobles marrying beneath their station, etc. were, depending on the society, shunned for a time or forever. That depends on the social norms.

I imagine things changed either with the death of the cousin Prince and/or the death of Serra if Illyrio married.

But to be sure - I mostly doubt Illyrio actually loved that Serra woman the way he says he did. I think that was a means to mess with Tyrion. She could still be the mother of Aegon and his wife.

9 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

We've already gotten a consequence of that: he wants Pentos and got Barristan to agree to that price. GRRM has had the problem of his various characters being too spread out, and this helps to move the Meereen plot back west.

That isn't a consequence at all until the plot actually moves towards Pentos. Which is something that is dependent on Tatters and Barristan both surviving the coming battles.

But honestly, I see no need for Tatters being there as a means to move the plot west. Dany taking over the Dothraki could do that much better if, say, the Dothraki want all the Free Cities on the mainland of Essos in return for their allegiance.

Chances that Barristan is going to leave Slaver's Bay before Dany's return are very low. Vice versa, Barristan's promises to Tatters aren't binding to Daenerys at all. If she still doesn't want to attack to Pentos after her return because she still feels indebted to Illyrio then Barristan and Tatters both might face her wrath for still contemplating shit like that.

[FictionIsntReal]

23 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dany taking over the Dothraki could do that much better if, say, the Dothraki want all the Free Cities on the mainland of Essos in return for their allegiance.

If the Dothraki follow strength, then merely having a dragon she can ride could be sufficient to enlist them.

[Lord Varys]

11 minutes ago, FictionIsntReal said:

If the Dothraki follow strength, then merely having a dragon she can ride could be sufficient to enlist them.

That would be scenario for fairy-tale/children's book. Daenerys Targaryen is female and her dragon is still young and not all that impressive. The Dothraki should be able to dispatch him easily enough with their dragonbone bows. This is a patriarchal culture. Some serious shit has to happen for them to accept or even consider that a woman is their prophesied leader. And even if she gets the religious stamp of approval and a majority view her like this, then they will still demand that said leader give them what they think said leader is destined to give them. That is why they will decide to view her as said leader. Saviors and religious icons do have to fulfill a role in any given religion. They cannot do what they want to reinterpret the culture that deifies them on a whim ... unless they are actually immortal deities with supernatural powers, of course (which Dany isn't).

They will be using Daenerys for their own ends just as she uses them for theirs. It will cost her if she wants them to abandon slavery and follow her to Westeros - a place their prophecies and religion don't care about at all. And it is quite clear that the Stallion is going to give the Dothraki all the ends of the world since that is part of that prophecy - which, I assume, means that all the land from the Bones to the Narrow Sea and from the Shivering Sea to the Summer Sea will be trampled into dust by the hooves of the Dothraki horses.

That is going to be the price of their allegiance. Anything else cannot fly in a series like this. A Dany trying to force the Dothraki to do things they don't want to do without giving them something they desire in return would inevitably lead to said Dothraki murdering or enslaving Daenerys after/while they slay her little dragon.

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

The return of the Blackfyres / Targaryens .

[TheLastWolf]

On 7/1/2020 at 5:05 AM, Lord Varys said:

That would be scenario for fairy-tale/children's book. Daenerys Targaryen is female and her dragon is still young and not all that impressive. The Dothraki should be able to dispatch him easily enough with their dragonbone bows. This is a patriarchal culture. Some serious shit has to happen for them to accept or even consider that a woman is their prophesied leader.

If you believe that the DOTHRAKI are based on the Mongol tribes, like I do (and many too in posts about Planetos's resemblances to ours) then them being patriarchal is not wholly true because.... 

..... the Mongols had a woman leader or two IIRC. Khutulun was one of them. So Dany can lead the Dothraki like her bloodriders, but not those like Mago, Pono,etc

That being said @Lord Varys I agree with you about some serious shit that has to happen for the other Dothraki to accept Dany. 

And I've got doubts about Tatters being anyone other than The Wandering Wolf. 

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The return of the Blackfyres / Targaryens

Especially this @BRANDON GREYSTARK because Tatters has some enmity with Pentos, while Pentos (Illyrio and Varys) is for the Targaryens and/or Blackfyre 

[Loras]

3 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

If you believe that the DOTHRAKI are based on the Mongol tribes, like I do (and many too in posts about Planetos's resemblances to ours) then them being patriarchal is not wholly true because.... 

..... the Mongols had a woman leader or two IIRC. Khutulun was one of them. So Dany can lead the Dothraki like her bloodriders, but not those like Mago, Pono,etc

While Mongol tribes may have been the basis for the Dothraki, I think that you are denying what is actually written in ‘A Game of Thrones’.

Dothraki culture appears to have two sides, the sun and the stars / moon.  The role of the male is traditional leadership, each khalasar is ruled by a khal who has bloodriders.  The female represents their gods and sacred places as well as motherhood generally (Mother of mountains, womb of the world, Dosh Khaleen).  Drogo’s khalasar disintegrated following his death.

Daenerys crossing from khaleesi to khal is a massive cultural change - even the show didn’t make it easy for her! 
 

On 7/1/2020 at 1:35 AM, Lord Varys said:

Anything else cannot fly in a series like this. A Dany trying to force the Dothraki to do things they don't want to do without giving them something they desire in return would inevitably lead to said Dothraki murdering or enslaving Daenerys after/while they slay her little dragon.

Agreed 100%.  Daenerys achieving the Dothraki easily is not a story I want to read, it’s complex. If we have learned anything from the last two books it is that Dothraki culture is likely to become even more complex in ‘Winds’.

On 6/30/2020 at 1:42 AM, Lord Varys said:

No, which is what you could have drawn from the next couple of sentences I wrote. We do hear about a Prince bribing the Braavosi into peace so he would avoid being sacrificed - so, yes, Princes of Pentos don't look forward to being sacrificed. And one assumes it doesn't happen all that often or else this system would not work. They cannot sacrifice so many nobles that there are no further potential princes left, for instance.

Absolutely, not to mention that this system is likely rigged.  Being elected as a Prince could just be an opportunity to remove heirs / weaken noble houses, while being framed as a great honour.

my impression is that Tatters just didn’t want to conform to this and left. But the magisters have absolutely used this to gain power and favour in Pentos.

[Megorova]

If Tattered Prince is son of Rodrick Stark, and nephew of Alysanne/Old Nan, then it's likely that his name is Duncan Stark. Based on three reasons:

1. In my opinion GRRM in his writing is following certain patterns, and one of those patterns is that he uses sets of trinities. There was Duncan the Tall, and Duncan the Small, thus there should be one more Duncan.

(There's more Duncans in the series - Liddle, Strong, and Tuttle - there's also three of this irrelevant Duncans. Thus, there should be one more relevant Duncan to complete the other set.)

2. If Old Nan is the mother of Dunk's child/children, then when he came to Winterfell with Egg, Rodrick was a teenager, not much younger than Dunk and not much older than Egg. So it's likely that he became friends with them, and later, same as Egg, named his son Duncan.

3. If Pretty Meris is Alysanne's great granddaughter, then Tatters is her great-uncle. If my theory, that Meris is Brienne's mother, is correct, then Meris is a descendant of Duncan the Tall, and she knows that she is bloodrelated to Tattered Prince. So when she got into serious troubles in Essos, she turned to her great-uncle for help and then joined his sellswords company. If she is Duncan's descendant, then it's kind of symbolic if her saviour is also a Duncan.

Maybe GRRM watched TV-series Highlander (1992-1998), in which main character's name was Duncan MacLeod, so could be that he was GRRM's inspiration for creating/naming Dunk.

It seems that Adrian Paul (the actor who played Duncan MacLeod) voiced over GRRM's audio book, Wild Cards VII.

And there's this:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/35233-highlander-adrian-paul-interested-in-thrones/

Of course it could be just a coincidence, and Duncan MacLeod and Adrian Paul has nothing to do with GRRM's books.

[butterweedstrover]

On 6/26/2020 at 12:29 AM, Megorova said:

This is all (everything in the post) speculations, not facts. 

(English isn't my native language (it's my 4th), so there was/is a lot of mistakes, and I had to edit this post more than a few times, sorry)

First of all, it isn't known whether Selvin Tarth's four children were born by the same woman, or by several different women. It isn't known how or when Brienne's mother died, or whether she really died. It isn't known whether Galladon, Arianne, Alysanne, and Brienne are full-siblings or half-siblings, or whether any of them were bastards born out of marriage. Thus, there'a lot of options how could have happened that Brienne is sure that her mother is dead, while her mother is actually in Essos.

For example, one of possibilities - Brienne's parents weren't married, her birth is a result of one time sex, or her mother was occasionally having sex with Selvin, who had a wife. Brienne's mother got pregnant, in secret gave birth, and then the baby was given to Selvin's wife, who pretended that Brienne is her child. Some time later the wife died, while giving birth to Arianne and Alysanne, or one of them. Thus Galladon, Arianne and Alysanne were born by Selvin's wife, while Brienne's mother is Wenda/Meris.

It seems illogical, though it's not totally impossible, and there could be an explanation how or why did something like that happened. -> When Naerys, Aegon IV's wife, nearly died after giving birth to twins, King Baelor sent Aegon to Braavos, to keep him away from Naerys, to prevent Aegon from having sex with his wife, because another pregnancy could have killed her. After Elia gave birth to Aegon, maesters said that another pregnancy will kill her. So what Rhaegar was supposed to do? If him and Elia continued to have sex, she could have became pregnant, and then she would have died in childbirth, or died in a result of abortion. Similar problem could have been with Selvin's wife. As an option he could have went to whores, or took a mistress/mistresses, or had occasional sex with random women, like Robert Baratheon. Though when Wenda became pregnant, she and Selvin made a deal, that he and his wife will pretend that the baby is theirs and legitimate, and Wenda will go away to Essos.

Another possibility is that Selvin had several wives. For example, his first wife died while giving birth to Galladon. His second wife died while giving birth to Arianne and/or Alysanne. Or those girls were born by wife 2 and wife 3, both wives died. Wife number 4 (or 3) was Wenda from House Cafferen. She wanted to have a different life, to be a knight/warrior, like her ancestor, Duncan the Tall. The fact that Selvin's previous wives died in childbirth, gave her an idea. So she made a deal with Selvin - she gives birth to his child, and then she can go wherever she wants, and went to Essos to join a sellswords company, because Essos is less prejudiced towards female-warriors. Either she and Selvin faked her death (like Ashara Dayne did), or she just left (like Mellario of Norvos, or like Lynesse Mormont, or Rohanne Webber-Lannister, or Larra Rogare). Either she left with Selvin's consent, or without it. She just left, and afterwards he told everyone that from now on she is dead for him and for all of his household.

Another possibility is that Selvin had one wife, and it was Wenda, and all of his children were born by her. She didn't wanted to be a wife and a mother, she wanted to live freely. So on the side she was having fun by spending time with outlaws, the Kingswood Brotherhood. Eventually she got fed up with playing family, and after Brienne's birth just left.

And there are many other options.

For example, Selvin never had a wife, all of his children were born by various mistresses, including Brienne. She remembers that her father each year had a different mistress. So, who said that it became like this only after Brienne's birth, maybe it always was like that. And Brienne herself is also a child of a mistress. Three of Selvin's children died, and he asked King Robert to legitimize his last surviving child, and it was done. And Brienne doesn't know, while people from Selvin's household don't care.

Or maybe she is a bastard, but she's still a Tarth, even though she wasn't legitimized. Maybe those islanders from Tarth have customs different from the rest of 7K. Maybe all bastards born on Tarth-island are Tarths. Ironborn have customs different from other people (rock wives, salt wives). People of Skagos, also islanders, also have different customs (cannibalism, for example. irrelevant for this topic, though whatever).

Maybe only Brienne is legitimate, while her siblings were bastards, born by various mistresses.

Etc., etc., etc.

 

There's information in ASOIAF-wikia that in 2016 GRRM confirmed that Brienne is Dunk's descendant. In AFFC Brienne visits the Dun Fort in Duskendale and has her shield repainted to the arms of Ser Duncan the Tall. She remembered that sigil from a shield that she found in her father's armory.

Selvin isn't tall, not like Brienne, it was never mentioned anywhere that she looks like her father. So isn't it likely that it's her mother who is a descendant of Duncan the Tall?

What Brienne and Meris have in common:

- both of them are tall;

- light-colored eyes (Brienne - blue, Meris - grey);

- blond hair;

- both are warrior-women;

- they have ridiculing nicknames, that people use behind their backs, and it's about their looks - Pretty Meris, Brienne the Beauty, even though they aren't;

- Brienne was born in 280. In 300 in ADWD it was said about Meris that she has been with the free companies for 20 years. And that originally she's from Westeros.

So, she gave birth to Brienne and went to Essos to join sellsword company.

Now, where's connection between Meris and Wenda from Kingswood Brotherhood. It was speculated that Wenda was a member of House Cafferen from Stormlands. Because there's two white fawns on their sigil, and Wenda branded KB's prisoners with her trademark, a fawn. It isn't known what happened to Wenda when KB were defeated by Barristan Selmy and Arthur Dayne. Though in 281, when that happened, the leader of KB was Simon Toyne. If Simon was the leader of KB, then why were their prisoners marked with Wenda's brand? Maybe, because prior 281 KB's leader was Wenda, while Simon Toyne, Smiling Knight, and Big Belly Ben/Strong Belwas joined later? Wenda wanted to be a warrior, but in 7K she could be only an outlaw. And Varys needed an access to Barristan Selmy, at certain specific time, in certain place.

Because Varys, who is a Blackfyre, can't have children, and thus there was no point for Golden Company to follow him, because he would have been the dead end for a Blackfyre line. Though after Serra, who was Varys' sister and a Blackfyre, died, Varys promised to GC that he will find them another Blackfyre. Thus he went to Westeros, and found there Barristan Selmy, who is a grandson of Aenys Blackfyre (or something like that). And the point of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion was to retrieve Aenys' family, that got stuck in 7K after Aenys' execution. Though in those three years between the Great Council of 233 and 236, one of Aenys' daughters hookep up with Lyonel Selmy, who was squiring at Stonehelm for Lord Swann. Prior going to King's Landing, Aenys left his family with Swanns, because they are bloodrelated to Blackfyres. Johanna Swann, the Black Swan of Lys, was Larra Rogare's mother, and great-grandmother of Daemon I Blackfyre. Johanna's father was Byron Swann, who got roasted by a dragon during the Dance of the Dragons, and they were mentioned in ADWD, Tyrion III in a conversation between Tyrion and Haldon (who is from Golden Company). Duncan the Tall is a Blackfyre, his parents were Daemon I Blackfyre and Daenerys Targaryen. Duncan the Small was named after Duncan the Tall. He gave a nickname to Barristan Selmy, who is a Blackfyre. Passage of names from Blackfyre to Blackfyre thru a Targaryen, even though both of them had none-Blackfyre lastnames (Tall and Selmy). So, there was a carrier of Blackfyre genes in 7K, though he was a Kingsguard, and he was an upright person, unlike Jaime Lannister. And he was utterly loyal to Targaryens, even though he knew that his mother was a Blackfyre. Thus he wouldn't have agreed to become the leader of Golden Company, nor to do what Varys couldn't do - to impregnate a woman, for his child to continue Blackfyre-line. But then appeared Shiera Seastar. For the role of fAegon's mother was chosen Jeyne Swann, while Shiera was escorting her under guise of a septa. Barristan was supposed to save them from KB, or KB were supposed to seize him for Jeyne's use.

And at about that time members of Kingsguard were assigned with a mission to hunt down Kingswood Brotherhood (maybe Varys persuaded Aerys to do so). So Varys (or his people from Golden Company) approached Wenda, the leader of KB, and she was offered a place in Golden Company in exchange of her giving her place in KB to Varys' people. That's how Wenda went to Essos, and Simon Toyne became a new leader of KB. Simon, most likely, is a brother of Myles Toyne, captain-general of Golden Company (he's already dead, he was Jon Conningston's friend, prior Varys and Illyrio gave fAegon into Jon's care). Wenda seems to be an alias, because there's a Wendwater river not far from Tarth, and the decisive battle of the Fourth Blackfyre Rebellion happened at Wendwater Bridge.

Probably, when Wenda was leaving KB, according to her agreement with Varys, her people were supposed to obey to Simon, and to assist him in his mission. Though it all went wrong, and instead of easily overwhelming 45-years old Barri, they were attacked by a real dragonboss, who was also accompanied by Arthur Dayne the Sword of the Morning. So KB's regular members got scared and escaped, leaving their new boss to fight those two devils. That's how Simon got killed, and his brother, Myles, blamed Wenda for what happened. So GC's people raped and mutilated her, and left her to die. Though she survived and was saved by Tattered Prince, and became a member of Windblown. After what happened to her, she became merciless, and became a torturer.

 

I think that Tattered Prince is Rodrik Stark. Based on this:

- both of them used to be members of Second Sons;

- many of his people are Westerosi;

- Windblown's banner is white and blue, which could be snow and blue winter roses of The North;

- grey is traditional color of Starks. Tatters is wearing silver-grey mail. His hair is grey. His warhorse is grey.

- "The great grey sailcloth pavilion that the Tattered Prince liked to call his canvas castle". There's no castles in Essos, there are mansions etc., castles is a thing of Westeros;

- Windblown are enemies with the Cat company, and their leader seems to be a wildling. If Tatters is a Stark, then their animosity is a given;

- Tatters was born in 238 or 239.

Rodrik Stark's year of birth in Wikia is based on possible year of death of his father, Beron Stark, which is supposedly 212-226. But there's some sort of mistake in years of death of Beron and his father, Brandon. It's Brandon, not Beron, who died after confrontation with Ironborn, and it happened in 212. Thus, actually there is no information about cause or year of death of Beron Stark, and thus his seven children (the youngest of them was Rodrik) could have been born even after 226, because he didn't died in 226. There's some major mistake and confusion with dates of birth and death in family tree of Starks, starting from after Cregan Stark. So Rodrik can be Tatters, even though his timeline in Wikia doesn't correspond with Tatters'.

P.S. Just because they were going to make Tatters next prince of Pentos, doesn't mean that he was local. He could have chosen Pentos as his primary settlement place, and he could have done it either after getting married back in Westeros, or he could have returned to The North, and married after his escape from Pentos. He was going between The North and Disputed Lands, until he established his own sellswords company. That's when he could have permanently left his family. And he wants to get Pentos for whatever reason, whether he is Rodrik Stark or not.

This is pretty weird but I've come to take most of your theories as fact. 

[Nathan Stark]

I think Tats wants to overthrow the Magisters and set up a less crazy form of Government. He's a sane man, I think, not bound by silly or suicidal traditions. Maybe he wants Pentos for himself. But he is pretty old, so it's more about revenge and changing the system that made him leave.

[FictionIsntReal]

On 7/16/2020 at 3:58 AM, TheLastWolf said:

the Mongols had a woman leader or two IIRC. Khutulun was one of them.

You don't recall correctly. There is a story that her father wanted to name her as his heir, but she was rejected because of her sex.

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Tatters has some enmity with Pentos, while Pentos (Illyrio and Varys) is for the Targaryens and/or Blackfyre 

Illyrio is not a synecdoche for Pentos, he is even on the outs with the aristocrats of that city due to his second marriage.

[Megorova]

13 hours ago, butterweedstrover said:

This is pretty weird but I've come to take most of your theories as fact. 

My theories are just theories, same as everybody else's here.

First half of that post, text prior "There's information in ASOIAF-wikia that in 2016 GRRM confirmed that Brienne is Dunk's descendant." are speculations, and there's nearly zero basis for them in the books (that's because I tried to fill in gaps that GRRM left in the plot between "Duncan the Tall" and his descendant "Brienne Tarth". It is possible that Meris is Brienne's mother, because there are a lot of similarities between them. Though how exactly did it happened that Meris, who is (possibly) a descendants of Duncan the Tall, ended up in Essos raped, brutalized, mutilated, and left to die, while her daughter, Brienne, got separated from her and remained in Westeros, is a mystery. Because GRRM could have used ANY SCENARIO to fill in gaps between known history, and thus it's impossible to guess what actually happened in the gaps between "Duncan" - ...?... - "Meris" - ...?... - "Brienne".).

Also, since I wrote that post, me and @TheLastWolf further discussed this topic in this thread and elsewhere, and I changed my opinion about Tatters' real identity. It seems more likely and also more fitting for the plot, if Tatters is not the Wandering Wolf Rodrick Stark, but rather he is Rodrick's son. I have a theory that Old Nan is Alysanne Stark, who was a sister of Rodrick Stark. Thus Rodrick knew Duncan the Tall, who in Winterfell became Alysanne's "boyfriend". It's likely that Duncan and Rodrick were friends, so later when Rodrick got married and had a son, he named him Duncan (same as Egg, who also named his son after his best friend).

The thing is is that if Tatters is Rodrick's son, then it's likely that his mother is Rodrick's wife, Arya Flint. House Flint are a mountain clan. People who are native inhabitants of mountains are called highlanders. In 90s there was a fairly popular TV-series "Highlander", and main character of it was named Duncan. If Tatters is son of Arya Flint, then he is half-highlander thru his mother. Thus it's fitting if GRRM named him Duncan. 

Here's that other thread that I mentioned:

https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/157312-old-nans-identity-and-her-unrevealed-secrets/

I wrote there my theory "Old Nan is Alysanne Stark". There's a lot of speculations there, but it gives a general outline about what (could have) happened in the gaps "Old Nan/Alysanne Stark + Duncan the Tall" - ... - Hodor, Meris, Brienne, The Hound, the Mountain. Maybe you will be interested to read it.

Concerning second half of the original post, text after "There's information in ASOIAF-wikia", about the rest of it I'm fairly certain. I think that Meris was a member of the Kingswood Brotherhood, that Varys caused her to leave it, that what happened to her in Essos is the fault of Golden Company, that Barristan Selmy is half-Blackfyre thru his mother, and that Varys used Kingswood Brotherhood to set a trap for Barristan for Jeyne Swann to have Barri's child (fAegon). Obviously those are also speculations, though thus far in the books there's nothing that contradicts the possibility of my theories. I'm just having fun, filling in time, while waiting for TWOW's release, same as everyone else here. My theories are not factual, I could be wrong, or could be that I am right. We will know if/when GRRM will finally publish the next book.

[Manderly's Rat Cook]

I personally believe that "the cousin of the Prince of Pentos" who Illyrio married, was Tatters' cousin (possibly a cousin by marriage?? Not sure if the Prince could be married though). Illyrio could only marry the girl with the help of Varys, and I suspect Tatters of striking a deal with Varys to smuggle him out of the city.

I also suspect that the reason Tatters wants Pentos so badly, because Illyrio possesses something that Tatters wants, perhaps something that was supposed to be given to him when he was smuggled out of the city. I'm other words; they screwed him, and now he can't go back to get it.

I have no idea if this ties into the idea of him being Rodrik, or Rodrik's son, but it is possible that Rodrik did marry someone of one of the 40 noble families, he was of noble blood after all. That way he could either have a cousin by marriage who would eventually marry Illyrio, and be chosen as Prince, being now a part of one of the noble Pentoshi families, or his son could be chosen Prince, and his son's cousin would marry Illyrio.