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Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over


Fragile Bird

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Bit of a grim milestone for the USA today. Average daily new cases >1,000 per state for the first time ever. Of course there is a huge range from >8,000 in Texas to 2 in Vermont.

Re-Remdesivir. The good thing is that this drug does not reduce deaths, it only shortens the course of the disease. The most important drug so far to reduce deaths is dexamethasone, which is as cheap as HCQ and there are no supply issues, and unlike HCQ it actually works.

It's a bit flippant coming from someone in a country that has no domestic cases, but I think people should just let the USA be a greedy prick and not get too worried about it. Don't be hoping to "punish" the USA when a vaccine comes along. The US people most at risk (and in need) of the eventual vaccine aren't the ones being greedy pricks over the global Rem supply. And I'm guessing the other countries that might have benefitted from having some Rem supplies probably weren't in much of a position to pay what was being demanded anyway. Better, arguably, to spend that money on ventilators, oxygen and PPE.

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46 minutes ago, Triskele said:

Flippant or not, I just don't think that we actually know any of this to be true yet.  

No way do we know shit about Dex yet.  Everyone wants that to be legit, but we shall see.  Medical science moves in years, and we understandably want results in months.  

No, we totally know about Dex, we've known about the usefulness of Dex in these sorts of conditions for years, both in the human and veterinary fields. Inflammatory crisis? Quick pass me the Dex. Dex was a well established drug when I was at vet school in the early 90s. What would be very surprising is if it turned out Dex was not all that good for this specific disease.

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Yeah, my daughter had issues with laringitis and bronchitis when she was younger, and Dexamethasone did wonders for her. I still have a nebulizer and a couple of ampules of Dex in my fridge (have to check if they expired).

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6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

 

Re-Remdesivir. The good thing is that this drug does not reduce deaths, it only shortens the course of the disease. The most important drug so far to reduce deaths is dexamethasone.

Pretty much my thoughts on the issue. They can keep it for themselves. Bloody thing is expensive and hardly of help. Production is difficult to scale up.  Too much noise for too little.

Gimme dexamethasone any day.

 

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

which is as cheap as HCQ and there are no supply issues, and unlike HCQ it actually works.

I wouldn't discard HCQ yet. There is so much sloppy research around it that it's hard to say. The Moroccan government is using the more toxic variant chloriquine with apparently good results. They attribute the low CFR to it.

This is a good article on the issue.

Chloroquine and COVID-19: A western medical and scientific drift?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0953620520302661

 

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's a bit flippant coming from someone in a country that has no domestic cases, but I think people should just let the USA be a greedy prick and not get too worried about it. Don't be hoping to "punish" the USA when a vaccine comes along. The US people most at risk (and in need) of the eventual vaccine aren't the ones being greedy pricks over the global Rem supply. And I'm guessing the other countries that might have benefitted from having some Rem supplies probably weren't in much of a position to pay what was being demanded anyway. Better, arguably, to spend that money on ventilators, oxygen and PPE.

Yes and look for other suppliers. BTW. I read somewhere that the same applies to the Moderna vaccine. Bloody thing needs cryogenic temperatures to keep it stable. In case it becomes effective and safe enough it will be a logistical nightmare anyway.

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11 hours ago, Triskele said:

The US bought up all of the Remdesivir supply so no one else gets any?  Bet the world is envious of our freedumb.

Will be quite interesting if China or Europe comes up with a vaccine first if they'll remember this...

Quite a few countries have laws that allow them to break patents in cases of a national emergency, but it just seems that no one wants to be the first to do that and piss of the USA, especially as other treatments are available.

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3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Pretty much my thoughts on the issue. They can keep it for themselves. Bloody thing is expensive and hardly of help. Production is difficult to scale up.  Too much noise for too little.

Gimme dexamethasone any day.

 

I wouldn't discard HCQ yet. There is so much sloppy research around it that it's hard to say. The Moroccan government is using the more toxic variant chloriquine with apparently good results. They attribute the low CFR to it.

This is a good article on the issue.

Chloroquine and COVID-19: A western medical and scientific drift?

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0953620520302661

 

Yes and look for other suppliers. BTW. I read somewhere that the same applies to the Moderna vaccine. Bloody thing needs cryogenic temperatures to keep it stable. In case it becomes effective and safe enough it will be a logistical nightmare anyway.

As far as I know the only trial under close to proper controlled double blind placebo conditions for HCQ showed no statistically significant benefit. It might still have it's uses, but I doubt it's the miracle drug the original French Dr claimed it to be. Morocco's CFR isn't actually low. In fact it is pretty much the expected CFR (between 1.5 and 2%). It's still conventional wisdom that the true CFR is in that range everywhere it's just that most countries are only detecting a small fraction of cases. Also Morocco has a younger population (~7% over 65, compared to, say, Italy with 22% over 65 and the UK with 18% over 65) which should tend to reduce CFR.

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Over 10k cases in Florida today.  Just for comparison, New York had 10k cases a few times, but never hit 11k for a single day.  Given the way Florida's curve is moving, we might see 12k this week.  

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Over 50,000 new cases officially reported today.  Over 10 thousand of them in Florida alone.

Fauci said, 100,000 a day to be expected by the fall, considering how things are being done.  Looks like it will / could hit that before then.  Quite a bit before then.

 

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2 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Over 10k cases in Florida today.  Just for comparison, New York had 10k cases a few times, but never hit 11k for a single day.  Given the way Florida's curve is moving, we might see 12k this week.  

Another comparison, I think Russia is the only European country which has ever reported over 10k cases for any day during the pandemic.

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I just heard on CNN that the virus has apparently mutated. I missed the first half of the discussion, but the doctor being interviewed said one of his researchers noticed a change in the outer layer of the spike, making it thinner, and that makes the virus more easy to spread. It doesn’t make it any deadlier, just easier to spread, and that may explain the upsurge in cases in the US.

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2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just heard on CNN that the virus has apparently mutated. I missed the first half of the discussion, but the doctor being interviewed said one of his researchers noticed a change in the outer layer of the spike, making it thinner, and that makes the virus more easy to spread. It doesn’t make it any deadlier, just easier to spread, and that may explain the upsurge in cases in the US.

Ok. I am no expert. Faaaar from it.

But aren't mutations more likely to happen the more hosts there are?

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16 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Ok. I am no expert. Faaaar from it.

But aren't mutations more likely to happen the more hosts there are?

I have no idea. I assume something will pop-up from CNN on my Facebook page about this.

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1 hour ago, Triskele said:

At what point of spread does it all become hopeless?  I'm hearing more that contact tracing is only logical if you're trying to control the thing and makes no sense once control is no longer possible.  

Didn't the CDC say a couple days ago that the opportunity to exert control over this virus [in the US] has passed, that the boats been missed, the ship has sailed, two birds no stones, tipping icebergs... whatever will be won't be, due to lack of whatevers, or whatever. 

Seriously though, good job US and State Governments. Municipalities. Good job.

 

[slow clap]

  

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Wow, just looked at Worldometer - 56,890 today.

I was wrong, it didn’t take two days and two hours to have as many cases as all of Canada, just two days, with room to spare.

Stay safe, US friends and fellow boarders. Stay safe.

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11 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Wow, just looked at Worldometer - 56,890 today.

I was wrong, it didn’t take two days and two hours to have as many cases as all of Canada, just two days, with room to spare.

Stay safe, US friends and fellow boarders. Stay safe.

I really hope the actual mortality rate is way below 0.5 percent.

Because all I can think now when I see these sorts of numbers every day is,"that's another 250 dead."

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15 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I really hope the actual mortality rate is way below 0.5 percent.

Because all I can think now when I see these sorts of numbers every day is,"that's another 250 dead."

And you have to consider that it is a virus, like chicken pox or herpes, so the survivors are going to suffer from currently unknown side-effects in the future.

I had childhood chicken pox, and then about four years ago I got the boomerang effect of shingles during the summer.  It wasn't fun.  What sort of future symptoms are in store for those who are currently collecting a dose?

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1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

I had childhood chicken pox, and then about four years ago I got the boomerang effect of shingles during the summer.  It wasn't fun.  What sort of future symptoms are in store for those who are currently collecting a dose?

The list is actually pretty long. Stroke, brain damage, pulmonary embolisms, permanent pulmonary issues, vascular motility issues... there's a lot more that I've read about, but there's not enough data to say definitively yet. One semi-consistent lead through all of that though is you don't need to have come down with the whole shebang. They're finding [no idea how commonly though] vascular issues in people that didn't present with many symptoms.

So.  

 

edit: how that will factor in to US medical insurance and preexisting conditions, life insurance, etc... welp

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