Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over

[rotting sea cow]

8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

I just heard on CNN that the virus has apparently mutated. I missed the first half of the discussion, but the doctor being interviewed said one of his researchers noticed a change in the outer layer of the spike, making it thinner, and that makes the virus more easy to spread. It doesn’t make it any deadlier, just easier to spread, and that may explain the upsurge in cases in the US.

These are kind of old news. It has been now confirmed by a new study. It makes the virus likely more contagious. The mutation was first detected in Italy back in March and that variant became dominant en Europe. The Chinese variant doesn't have that mutation.

There have been a lot of speculation about the significance of that mutation. For example, the Chinese variant is (was?) dominant in the west coast and accordingly it was observed that the outbreak was not nearly as bad as in the east coast where the European variant dominated. I supposed now the European variant is now dominant in US too.

ETA: Link to the original Cell article

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5

 

 

[BigFatCoward]

Build the wall, and at the northern border as well. 

[Gorn]

Latest analysis shows that the Black Lives Matter protests did not correspond to any significant rise in cases in the cities where they happened. This is very good news, since it provides an additional datapoint that outdoor transmission of virus is pretty much negligible.

[Which Tyler]

9 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Latest analysis shows that the Black Lives Matter protests did not correspond to any significant rise in cases in the cities where they happened. This is very good news, since it provides an additional datapoint that outdoor transmission of virus is pretty much negligible.

Good news, do you have a link please?

[JoannaL]

7 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I really hope the actual mortality rate is way below 0.5 percent.

Because all I can think now when I see these sorts of numbers every day is,"that's another 250 dead."

The mortality rate may be around 0,5 percent. But that is of all infections (also the unknown). Of the known infections around 5 % will die, and the number will go up when the hospitals are overrun (so soon). So around 3000 will die per day and yes, it is too late for tracking and tracing. What are you doing over there!!  A full lockdown  for about 4-6 weeks is the only option and it should have been implemented about 3 weeks ago. And it is not as if this is something new and unknown like in Italy in March, now everyone knows whats going on, how to handle it, what happens if you do nothing. there really was no reason to make the same mistakes twice!!! If I were a citizen of the US, I would be somewhere between angry frustration and RAGE. So much incompetence in the leading and handling by the political class is unbelievable and unforgivable.

[Gorn]

53 minutes ago, Which Tyler said:

Good news, do you have a link please?

https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

Quote

Several cities that saw major protests, including New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia, have not experienced a new surge in cases in the days and weeks following. And in cities and states that specifically set out to test protestors, like Massachusetts, Seattle, and Minnesota, the results have shown that demonstrators were not considerably more likely to test positive compared to the general population.

 

[rotting sea cow]

11 minutes ago, Gorn said:

https://time.com/5861633/protests-coronavirus/

 

Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?

 

[Gorn]

6 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?

 

Extended family meals and large indoor gatherings of friends and people from different household (just a personal guess). The protests, on the other hand, were 100% outdoor activity.

[rotting sea cow]

Operation Warp Speed’s opaque choices of COVID-19 vaccines draw Senate scrutiny

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/operation-warp-speed-s-opaque-choices-covid-19-vaccines-draw-senate-scrutiny

Quote

At the outset of the hearing, Murray noted she had concerns about why BARDA “has chosen to invest solely in vaccine technologies that have only been studied experimentally and never made it to market, while not pursuing older proven technologies.” Murray was referring BARDA’s funding for vaccines that either synthetically produce the surface protein of SARS-CoV-2, the pathogen that causes COVID-19, or deliver the gene for it into a person’s body. Moderna, for example, injects an RNA form of the gene, a method that has not yet produced an approved vaccine.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Gorn said:

Extended family meals and large indoor gatherings of friends and people from different household (just a personal guess). The protests, on the other hand, were 100% outdoor activity.

At least around here BLM protesters are also on the mask side of the mask debate and most of them did wear a mask. 

It is not completely clear cut of course but it is right wing= anti mask left wing=pro mask in my experience. 

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?

 

Also, most of the protestors were wearing masks.  Compare that to the some of the memorial day footage.  A little different than a bunch of unmasked half naked people partying, packed in close together, yelling into each other's faces to be heard over the music.

Eta:ninjaed

[Fragile Bird]

6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

These are kind of old news. It has been now confirmed by a new study. It makes the virus likely more contagious. The mutation was first detected in Italy back in March and that variant became dominant en Europe. The Chinese variant doesn't have that mutation.

There have been a lot of speculation about the significance of that mutation. For example, the Chinese variant is (was?) dominant in the west coast and accordingly it was observed that the outbreak was not nearly as bad as in the east coast where the European variant dominated. I supposed now the European variant is now dominant in US too.

ETA: Link to the original Cell article

https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30820-5

 

 

Lol, old news? That article was published July 2! Which is why it was being discussed on CNN yesterday. It was first submitted April 29, revised June 10th. I think in May we were discussing 3 mutations that were labeled A, B and C, but not the details about the thinner coating. If you can recall that far back (it seems like half a year ago!) as early as March or April, I think, I was saying New York had to have a different version of the virus than the west coast, because of the way it was spreading, a thought lots of people must have had.

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?

 

One thing that impressed me about the protests was how many people wore masks. Many times the crowd looked like 100% of the protesters were masked. And often people kept distance around them, maybe not always 6 feet, but pretty close. And no one was hugging or passing around a beer.

On the other hand, the shots of Memorial Day crowds that I saw on the news showed crowds that were perhaps 10 or 20% masked, but even nearly 0% masked. People on beaches, boardwalks and in bars were not making any efforts to social distance. One guy in the hospital with Covid in Texas was saying the bar he and his friends went to was packed and short of glasses, and so they passed drinks around. Not smart, but they didn’t think they’d get it and even if they did it would be mild. 

[rotting sea cow]

1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, old news? That article was published July 2! Which is why it was being discussed on CNN yesterday. It was first submitted April 29, revised June 10th. I think in May we were discussing 3 mutations that were labeled A, B and C, but not the details about the thinner coating. If you can recall that far back (it seems like half a year ago!) as early as March or April, I think, I was saying New York had to have a different version of the virus than the west coast, because of the way it was spreading, a thought lots of people must have had.

The mutation was found first in March (at least I read about it then).  This is the original article that discussed that particular mutation although it was heavily criticized.

Spike mutation pipeline reveals the emergence of a more transmissible form of SARS-CoV-2 (30-April-2020)

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.29.069054v1

Quote

The mutation D614G (a G-to-A base change at position 23,403 in the Wuhan reference strain) was the only site of interest identified in our first Spike mutation report in early March (Fig. 1A); it was found 7 times in 183 sequences that were available at the tim

It is probably the same article, heavily revised. But the mutation was known.

These are other articles discussing that particular mutation. All of them at least a month old.

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.075911v1

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.04.075911v1

https://github.com/blab/ncov-D614G

The last one has a nice graphic of the timeline of the mutation, with the first one appearing late January in Washington State.

The study published in Cell is based upon those studies and pretty much confirm that mutation increases infectivity, but not necessarily severity, which is partly good news. 

 

[rotting sea cow]

U-turn from Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order

https://abc13.com/health/mask-order-issued-for-entire-state-of-texas/6292458/

C'mom gringos. Why do you need to politicize everything? Wear a damn mask, it's so simple and it can make a huge difference.

 

[JoannaL]

1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

At least around here BLM protesters are also on the mask side of the mask debate and most of them did wear a mask. 

It is not completely clear cut of course but it is right wing= anti mask left wing=pro mask in my experience. 

ehm, no, the idiots who went destroying, looting and attacing police in the city of Stuttgart two weeks ago did not wear masks , none, and they were not right wing (they cite as a reason for their actions the police control of a (white) drug user and that, you know, the police is evil, and needs to be attacted)

[Luzifer's right hand]

27 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

ehm, no, the idiots who went destroying, looting and attacing police in the city of Stuttgart two weeks ago did not wear masks , none, and they were not right wing (they cite as a reason for their actions the police control of a (white) drug user and that, you know, the police is evil, and needs to be attacted)

They were also not left wing afaik. At least according to the police of Stuttgart. Hating the police is not just a left wing thing at least around here. Far right soccer fans are the most anti-police people I know personally for example and the only people I have ever seen attacking the police in real life. 

At least here in Austria the far right FPÖ is the party that is against Covid-19 based restrictions.

[Fragile Bird]

1 hour ago, rotting sea cow said:

U-turn from Texas

Gov. Greg Abbott issues statewide mask order

https://abc13.com/health/mask-order-issued-for-entire-state-of-texas/6292458/

C'mom gringos. Why do you need to politicize everything? Wear a damn mask, it's so simple and it can make a huge difference.

 

Try looking at all the exceptions..,

[Ormond]

5 hours ago, Gorn said:

Latest analysis shows that the Black Lives Matter protests did not correspond to any significant rise in cases in the cities where they happened. This is very good news, since it provides an additional datapoint that outdoor transmission of virus is pretty much negligible.

Medical experts on the news networks in the USA this morning were saying it was 18 to 19 times less likely to catch the virus outdoors than indoors. One of the doctors who said he believed all dining indoors at restaurants should be banned across the country said he would still allow outdoor restaurant dining because of that. But of course tables should still be at least six feet apart.

[Ormond]

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok. Then why do some people argue that the Memorial Day did create outbreaks? What was the difference with BLM protests?

 

Because not all of the parties and get-togethers people had on Memorial Day were outdoors. 

[Gorn]

11 minutes ago, Ormond said:

Medical experts on the news networks in the USA this morning were saying it was 18 to 19 times less likely to catch the virus outdoors than indoors. One of the doctors who said he believed all dining indoors at restaurants should be banned across the country said he would still allow outdoor restaurant dining because of that. But of course tables should still be at least six feet apart.

This also fits with a study of virus transmission from China, where out of thousands of observed cases, only two people were infected in an outdoor setting.

It also makes sense from an epidemiological perspective. You won't get infected by inhaling a single virus particle, nor a hundred particles, probably not even a thousand (at least if comparisons with studies done on MERS are valid). Such a large concentration of particles is unlikely outdoors, unless you inhale someone's sneeze cloud. And virus cannot survive for long in the air without a host, especially in sunlight.