Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over

[Zorral]

7 hours ago, larrytheimp said:

Also, most of the protestors were wearing masks.  Compare that to the some of the memorial day footage.  A little different than a bunch of unmasked half naked people partying, packed in close together, yelling into each other's faces to be heard over the music.

Eta:ninjaed

Also they are MOVING, not standing in one place, face to face, and yelling in each others' faces, as they do in bars and restaurants, even when in the street, not inside and seated, and doing it for 3- 4 hours all together, in each others' unmasked faces.

Which is what is going on here. The sheer number and density of these places having filled up both the sidewalks and the streets, the number of people stationary, f2f, w/0 masks, this number of people far exceeds the 25 - 30 people rule. These blocks of restaurant tables etc., converge, like rain drops converge to make a rivelet, rivelets converge, become puddles, etc. This is very dangerous to those of us who live here.  The people in these restaurants are not locals -- and more and more are not even from New York or New Jersey, but Texas and Florida (as I can see from the license plates).  As per usual in this country, nobody thought this through. All they thought was REVENUE! Which means NYC at least is going to be right back to where it was in April, probably by early August, if not sooner.

Mostly the Experts won't dine in this sort of setting either. This is very interesting. Though they are The Experts, for good reasons, this is also common sense based upon what (little) we actually know and / or suspect about the virus's mode of infection.

None of them will / would travel unless it was some very great emergency. They will not see people who aren't already part of their safe circle. Except for those who are working still in offices, which most of them are -- and then they wear masks and do all the rest. Their attitude is "I cannot afford to get sick because I am the one who deals with the sick."

For those who are located in regions that are spiking now rather than earlier, as Arizona, they have tightened up their protocol practices considerably. Where at the beginning one of them got a hair cut inside his house (masks worn), one will only do it outside now, and the others just won't and / or haven't done it at all.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html?

 

 

[rotting sea cow]

Ok. Thanks for the replies re BLM protests vs Memorial Day. I've never been in US and I've no idea how things work there.

[BigFatCoward]

4 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Ok. Thanks for the replies re BLM protests vs Memorial Day. I've never been in US and I've no idea how things work there.

Not very well. 

[kairparavel]

As mentioned in previous posts, the difference was masks aka the protesters took the Coronavirus and it's spread seriously and also had a care for themselves and the people around them. I didn't attend but those I know who did confirmed almost everyone in masks and hand sanitizer everywhere. 

[DireWolfSpirit]

So I haven't read the article but I'm being told by a few HVAC people that they have some type of ultraviolet ray that can be installed within the heating and cooling ducts that can kill over 99% of bacteria.

I cant remember which Covid thread we discussed ways to slow the spread, which to me seems likely it's spreading through air ducts.

Let's get this technology installed everywhere.....yesterday!!

[Which Tyler]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So I haven't read the article but I'm being told by a few HVAC people that they have some type of ultraviolet ray that can be installed within the heating and cooling ducts that can kill over 99% of bacteria.

I cant remember which Covid thread we discussed ways to slow the spread, which to me seems likely it's spreading through air ducts.

Let's get this technology installed everywhere.....yesterday!!

Trouble with that though - it's not a bacteria (though it does seem to be susceptible to UV light, just much less so)

[maarsen]

6 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

So I haven't read the article but I'm being told by a few HVAC people that they have some type of ultraviolet ray that can be installed within the heating and cooling ducts that can kill over 99% of bacteria.

I cant remember which Covid thread we discussed ways to slow the spread, which to me seems likely it's spreading through air ducts.

Let's get this technology installed everywhere.....yesterday!!

As a retired hospital maintenance worker, we used air filters  that had 99 % efficiency in trapping particulates such as airborne bacteria and viruses for this purpose. This is the same filter medium used in N95 type masks. Also 100% fresh air would be used in certain locations such as operating rooms and ICUs along with such filters. Installing UV lights is much more costly than just upgrading to a better filter. 

[Fragile Bird]

With Covid-19 numbers skyrocketting in the US, other countries better get their ducks in a row with regard to PPE, because the US is going to buy up the world supply of everything there is. If there is a bad round 2 when flu season comes around, good luck finding anything.

Here in Canada the prime minister said we've almost reached self-sufficiency in PPE supplies, so many companies changed their production from other goods to pandemic needs. I'm sure many of those companies have been looking at the big drop in Canadian numbers and wondered if they made the right decision, but they must be comforting themselves now with the thought there's going to be a vast market south of the border.

In related news, the FDA has approved a dual test for the flu and Covid-19. I have no idea how that would work.

eta: good thing all those plants in the US are making ventilators. After New York got everything under control Trump was mocking Cuomo about the demands he had made for ventilators. He didn't even need them! We knew he wouldn't need them!

[BigFatCoward]

After the last peak in the states for new cases, when did the deaths skyrocket? Are we looking at next weekend when the deaths go through the roof? 

[Altherion]

19 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

After the last peak in the states for new cases, when did the deaths skyrocket? Are we looking at next weekend when the deaths go through the roof? 

It's about 2-3 weeks, but with a long tail because people can be kept on ventilators for a month or more.

[DireWolfSpirit]

9 hours ago, maarsen said:

As a retired hospital maintenance worker, we used air filters  that had 99 % efficiency in trapping particulates such as airborne bacteria and viruses for this purpose. This is the same filter medium used in N95 type masks. Also 100% fresh air would be used in certain locations such as operating rooms and ICUs along with such filters. Installing UV lights is much more costly than just upgrading to a better filter. 

Thank You, your probably more accurately relaying what my friends were referring to. 

Yes there will be a price tag to retrofitting buildings but it would be good policy to upgrade the building codes and incentivize businesses, schools, and as many high public use buildings as possible to upgrade the air systems to these higher purification and filtration standards.

Tax credits, stimulus money, some of the incentives we've used for green tech. might all be very useful to making things safer for everyone.

[Luzifer's right hand]

Well now that they have finally decided to test employees in the meat industry they have started finding positive cases. A complete surprise because we are better than Germany™(my goverments stance after Tönnis) ... Not. 

Unlike the massive verbal attacks on the regional goverment of Vienna when they found cases in a post distribution center the federal goverment is mostly silent because so far all known cases are in states countrolled by the chancellors party. 

I wish this shit was not political...

[Fez]

I don't know if there's any practical implications; but if this holds up, its fascinating (to me at least).

Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html

Study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1

Quote

 

A stretch of DNA linked to Covid-19 was passed down from Neanderthals 60,000 years ago, according to a new study.

Scientists don’t yet know why this particular segment increases the risk of severe illness from the coronavirus. But the new findings, which were posted online on Friday and have not yet been published in a scientific journal, show how some clues to modern health stem from ancient history.

“This interbreeding effect that happened 60,000 years ago is still having an impact today,” said Joshua Akey, a geneticist at Princeton University who was not involved in the new study.

This piece of the genome, which spans six genes on Chromosome 3, has had a puzzling journey through human history, the study found. The variant is now common in Bangladesh, where 63 percent of people carry at least one copy. Across all of South Asia, almost one-third of people have inherited the segment.

Elsewhere, however, the segment is far less common. Only 8 percent of Europeans carry it, and just 4 percent have it in East Asia. It is almost completely absent in Africa.

It’s not clear what evolutionary pattern produced this distribution over the past 60,000 years. “That’s the $10,000 question,” said Hugo Zeberg, a geneticist at the Karolinska Institute in Sweden who was one of the authors of the new study.

 

 

[ljkeane]

That's interesting. I would have thought DNA passed down from Neanderthals would have been more prevalent in Europe.

[Ormond]

26 minutes ago, Fez said:

I don't know if there's any practical implications; but if this holds up, its fascinating (to me at least).

Article: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/coronavirus-neanderthals.html

Study: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.03.186296v1

 

This is interesting -- and I noted in the full article that they linked to a study from the UK showing people of South Asian ancestry there had a higher fatality rate. But if this really is a big factor, shouldn't the country of Bangladesh show a high fatality rate? And from Johns Hopkins statistics, it's the exact opposite, with Bangladesh showing one of the lower "observed case-fatality ratios".

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

39 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

That's interesting. I would have thought DNA passed down from Neanderthals would have been more prevalent in Europe.

I'm just impressed researchers can even trace these things.

[Zorral]

Probably most of us posting here recall the often acrimonious discussion with -- hmm, forget handle of poster -- as to whether or not covid-19 was air spread?

The problem seemed to be the use of professionals' language about this vs. our, the lay people's understanding of the same words -- often the problem with scientific and tech communications.  In any case that argument continues with the experts in the field vs. the W.H.O.  However, the conclusion is always the same: WEAR A MASK!

239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne
The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.

NY Times --limited clicks for access

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html

Quote

 

[....]

But interviews with nearly 20 scientists — including a dozen W.H.O. consultants and several members of the committee that crafted the guidance — and internal emails paint a picture of an organization that, despite good intentions, is out of step with science.

Whether carried aloft by large droplets that zoom through the air after a sneeze, or by much smaller exhaled droplets that may glide the length of a room, these experts said, the coronavirus is borne through air and can infect people when inhaled.

[....]

“I do get frustrated about the issues of airflow and sizing of particles, absolutely,” said Mary-Louise McLaws, a committee member and epidemiologist at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

“If we started revisiting airflow, we would have to be prepared to change a lot of what we do,” she said. “I think it’s a good idea, a very good idea, but it will cause an enormous shudder through the infection control society.”

[....]

Experts all agree that the coronavirus does not behave that way. Dr. Marr and others said the coronavirus seemed to be most infectious when people were in prolonged contact at close range, especially indoors, and even more so in superspreader events — exactly what scientists would expect from aerosol transmission.

[....]

In interviews, other scientists criticized this view as paternalistic. “‘We’re not going to say what we really think, because we think you can’t deal with it?’ I don’t think that’s right,” said Don Milton, an aerosol expert at the University of Maryland.

Even cloth masks, if worn by everyone, can significantly reduce transmission, and the W.H.O. should say so clearly, he added.

[....]

 

 

[rotting sea cow]

Coronavirus: Drunk people cannot social distance, warns UK police chief

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-drunk-people-cannot-social-distance-warns-uk-police-chief/a-54059523

LOL, I don't what they did expect.

 

[rotting sea cow]

2 hours ago, Zorral said:

Probably most of us posting here recall the often acrimonious discussion with -- hmm, forget handle of poster -- as to whether or not covid-19 was air spread?

The problem seemed to be the use of professionals' language about this vs. our, the lay people's understanding of the same words -- often the problem with scientific and tech communications.  In any case that argument continues with the experts in the field vs. the W.H.O.  However, the conclusion is always the same: WEAR A MASK!

239 Experts With 1 Big Claim: The Coronavirus Is Airborne
The W.H.O. has resisted mounting evidence that viral particles floating indoors are infectious, some scientists say. The agency maintains the research is still inconclusive.

NY Times --limited clicks for access

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/04/health/239-experts-with-1-big-claim-the-coronavirus-is-airborne.html

The WHO again with its confusing language. Who could have guessed? How much time have we lost? How many lives?

I'm tired of beating the same dead horse.

Wearing a mask should have been the advice three or four months ago. I cannot believe we are still battling this.

[rotting sea cow]

On 7/2/2020 at 3:55 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

As far as I know the only trial under close to proper controlled double blind placebo conditions for HCQ showed no statistically significant benefit. It might still have it's uses, but I doubt it's the miracle drug the original French Dr claimed it to be.

Hopefully you are not referring to this study.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

I'm aware of the UK Recovery trial. Apparently it has also been heavily criticized. But I grant you, the evidence that HCQ is working is getting smaller and smaller.