Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over

[Raja]

Yeah, nothing I can see here that is at all convincing. Pity I can't read the telegraph article, but the lede having the Spanish sewage study ( a fairly flawed one) doesn't fill me with much hope that the rest of the article.

I'm skeptical and haven't seen anything that verges on convincing yet and haven't seen many experts agree with this stuff either.

[Gareth]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I imagine hospitalisations during summer months will possibly tend to be lower, because people generally feel healthier with warm sunny weather, and unlike what some people say about feelings, feelings actually do matter with physical and mental health. If these daily infection rates stay this way heading into winter then the colder, more miserable days will probably lead to increased hospitalisation, longer hospital stays and maybe more deaths. I imagine this pattern would not be confined to the USA.

Summer hospitalizations are low due to decreased elective surgeries (vacation/holidays).  BTW, most teaching hospitals have new medical residents starting in July and if you can avoid hospitalization for any month out of the year, July is the month to avoid.  Studies have been done that show about 10-20% increase in medical errors in July for teaching hospitals.  

[The Anti-Targ]

I would have dismissed it if it only mentioned Spain, but allegedly showing up in testing in Italy and Brazil grabbed my attention. Still possibly amount to naught, but curious that this line of thinking hasn't just gone away as a swiftly dismissed flash in the pan. Then again any speculation on the origins of the virus by someone with a PhD will get airplay until there is a definitive answer.

[Jeor]

A few bad bits of news coming through:

Fauci says that a vaccine for a coronavirus might have a very short effective life. So even if we get one, there's no telling how long that will last.

Spanish study suggests herd immunity isn't really a thing; the virus caused a lot of destruction in spain but only a small percentage of the population (5%) has developed antibodies, nowhere near enough for herd immunity.

And in Australia we've had a lockdown of Melbourne (our second most populous city) after community transmissions have risen again. There are 191 new cases daily (which is a record for us), in perspective it's not much compared to some of the numbers we've been seeing but it does give rise to a second wave in Australia, which is not good.

[Ormond]

4 minutes ago, Jeor said:

A few bad bits of news coming through:

Fauci says that a vaccine for a coronavirus might have a very short effective life. So even if we get one, there's no telling how long that will last.

 

That one doesn't seem like "news" to me. I think experts have been saying that for months. This is just one of many unknowns we have to live with until we have the data.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 minutes ago, Jeor said:

A few bad bits of news coming through:

Fauci says that a vaccine for a coronavirus might have a very short effective life. So even if we get one, there's no telling how long that will last.

Spanish study suggests herd immunity isn't really a thing; the virus caused a lot of destruction in spain but only a small percentage of the population (5%) has developed antibodies, nowhere near enough for herd immunity.

And in Australia we've had a lockdown of Melbourne (our second most populous city) after community transmissions have risen again. There are 191 new cases daily (which is a record for us), in perspective it's not much compared to some of the numbers we've been seeing but it does give rise to a second wave in Australia, which is not good.

As long as the vaccine lasts a couple of months, you can get your shot, hang about for 2 weeks to make sure you weren't brewing it at the time you got your shot, then pop over here and hang in relative safety.

Maybe a booster a month after the first dose might confer a longer period of immunity. But if you have to do that every year it will be an inconvenience. So long as the virus doesn't get deadlier in the young and healthy, even a vaccine with a modest period of immunity might help with those who are at high risk of serious disease and death.

[Filippa Eilhart]

It's definitely been suggested it may likely be a yearly vaccine similar to flu.

[The Anti-Targ]

Just now, Filippa Eilhart said:

It's definitely been suggested it may likely be a yearly vaccine similar to flu.

Indeed. Yearly would be fine, just add it to the annual 'flu vaccine cocktail. Less than a 1 year immunity would be very inconvenient to manage in the long term.

[rotting sea cow]

6 hours ago, Jeor said:

A few bad bits of news coming through:

Fauci says that a vaccine for a coronavirus might have a very short effective life. So even if we get one, there's no telling how long that will last.

 

Spanish study suggests herd immunity isn't really a thing; the virus caused a lot of destruction in spain but only a small percentage of the population (5%) has developed antibodies, nowhere near enough for herd immunity.

The importance of antibodies has faded over the months. The T-cells seems to be the important ones here. This probably mean that 1) The number of people infected might be higher than serology studies suggest 2) As long as a vaccine is able to train the T-cells immunity might be a thing. Some people infected with SARS-1 exhibited immunity even 10 years after the infections. 

More on T Cells, Antibody Levels, and Our Ignorance

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance

 

 

[RhaenysBee]

So we are starting to see little surges here and there as the country completely reopened and the state of emergency was closed. We had 2-10 new infections/day for the last two-three weeks, today we had 16 and tomorrow we’ll have at least 21 according to a media report about an epicenter at a country school after a staff meeting. 

Everybody, citizens, businesses, politicians, institutions expect life to go back to “normal”, schools expect to reopen in September and businesses expect to make up for the lost spring. I’m half certain that nobody’s going back to school or if they do, they’ll get closed down by October. Stupidly, our borders are open to the EU and with everybody so hungry for “normal”, people will bring the virus right back from airports and epicenters abroad. 

there are still a ridiculous amount of people (including doctors, yes, GPs, who tell this to visiting patients, no I’m not kidding) who don’t believe there’s a virus, or - a bit better - think it was eradicated by staying (more or less) at home for 6 weeks. 

And there are the people who believe in the vaccine, and take it for a fact that it’ll be with us by this winter, at worst. To be honest, I don’t believe in a vaccine, I don’t believe there’ll be one in the foreseeable future. As far as I’m concerned, Covid will either pass through us in 1-2 years like the Spanish flu did, or push humanity to the brink where a decision will have to be made by every nation whether we salvage the economy and the strong, stay open and let it run its course, or we try to save the old and the less strong, stay locked down and potentially doom everybody by bankrupting the world.

I don’t think Covid will be the end of humanity per se. Nothing so far managed to wipe humanity, but nature/god/fate/karma/whatever we want to call it certainly thinks it’s time for a painful and memorable lesson and we aren’t seem to be learning it yet. 

Well that was all the positive thinking from me for today. Hope everybody’s staying safe and keeping their faith and strength and a more positive spirit than mine in all places, especially ones severely hit by the virus. 

[Maithanet]

Bolsanaro tests positive for COVID-19.

Quote

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has tested positive for Covid-19, Bolsonaro himself announced, speaking on Brazilian TV channels Tuesday.

"Everyone knew that it would reach a considerable part of the population sooner or later. It was positive for me," Bolsonaro said, referring to the Covid-19 test he took Monday.

 

[Fragile Bird]

14 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Bolsanaro tests positive for COVID-19.

 

It's ok, he's had two doses of hydroxycloroquine and now he feels fine.

[rotting sea cow]

*cloroquine, which is a standard treatment in Brazil, as well as in Argentina, Venezuela, Cuba and other countries. Ivermectin is heavily used in Peru and Bolivia as far as I know. Hydroxycloroquine is used in Turkey, India, Pakistan and several Arab countries.

[rotting sea cow]

4 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

So we are starting to see little surges here and there as the country completely reopened and the state of emergency was closed. We had 2-10 new infections/day for the last two-three weeks, today we had 16 and tomorrow we’ll have at least 21 according to a media report about an epicenter at a country school after a staff meeting. 

Everybody, citizens, businesses, politicians, institutions expect life to go back to “normal”, schools expect to reopen in September and businesses expect to make up for the lost spring. I’m half certain that nobody’s going back to school or if they do, they’ll get closed down by October. Stupidly, our borders are open to the EU and with everybody so hungry for “normal”, people will bring the virus right back from airports and epicenters abroad. 

there are still a ridiculous amount of people (including doctors, yes, GPs, who tell this to visiting patients, no I’m not kidding) who don’t believe there’s a virus, or - a bit better - think it was eradicated by staying (more or less) at home for 6 weeks. 

And there are the people who believe in the vaccine, and take it for a fact that it’ll be with us by this winter, at worst. To be honest, I don’t believe in a vaccine, I don’t believe there’ll be one in the foreseeable future. As far as I’m concerned, Covid will either pass through us in 1-2 years like the Spanish flu did, or push humanity to the brink where a decision will have to be made by every nation whether we salvage the economy and the strong, stay open and let it run its course, or we try to save the old and the less strong, stay locked down and potentially doom everybody by bankrupting the world.

I don’t think Covid will be the end of humanity per se. Nothing so far managed to wipe humanity, but nature/god/fate/karma/whatever we want to call it certainly thinks it’s time for a painful and memorable lesson and we aren’t seem to be learning it yet. 

Well that was all the positive thinking from me for today. Hope everybody’s staying safe and keeping their faith and strength and a more positive spirit than mine in all places, especially ones severely hit by the virus. 

You hear so gloomy. I also have my days. There are still good news around. You may want to read the story how a developing country is defeating this pandemic without a lockdown

https://theconversation.com/uruguay-quietly-beats-coronavirus-distinguishing-itself-from-its-south-american-neighbors-yet-again-140037

There are similar cases with more or less success: Paraguay, Cuba, Costa Rica, Thailand, Mongolia, Vietnam and probably many others. It shows you that it is possible to maintain a level of control over the pandemic without destroying society. It shows you that failure to contain this can be laid at hands of governments, international organizations and society in general. 

We know already many things about this disease. We know that superspreading events drive the evolution of the pandemic. We know that children are less affected by the disease and neither are vectors of transmission. We know that masks are probably very effective. We know that contact tracing is a must. We know a lot about risk factors which can be used for targeted interventions. We know that despite associated statistical risks there is a wide variation in symptoms and severity across the population. It is not necessarily a death sentence for the elderly. 

 

 

 

 

[williamjm]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I would have dismissed it if it only mentioned Spain, but allegedly showing up in testing in Italy and Brazil grabbed my attention. Still possibly amount to naught, but curious that this line of thinking hasn't just gone away as a swiftly dismissed flash in the pan. Then again any speculation on the origins of the virus by someone with a PhD will get airplay until there is a definitive answer.

I think the first known cases in China are from November so it being detected in Brazil and Italy in November and December respectively doesn't necessarily contradict that if an early carrier travelled abroad. If the Spanish result from March really was accurate then that would be more significant.

[The Anti-Targ]

No doubt Bolsanaro will recover having had only mild symptoms and will say, "see it's just like a cold."

[Guest]

Opening schools in the U.S. in the fall is a pipe dream. Who is going to teach when all the teachers and staff are in the hospital?

[The Anti-Targ]

12 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

Opening schools in the U.S. in the fall is a pipe dream. Who is going to teach when all the teachers and staff are in the hospital?

The army of course. Those brats and rebellious teens need some hard discipline imposed on them.

[Winterfell is Burning]

37 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

No doubt Bolsanaro will recover having had only mild symptoms and will say, "see it's just like a cold."

Yeah, there's quite a few people, and I'm not talking about conspiracy theory types only, that suspect it's a fake, both to gather some sympathy, and to make propaganda for hydroxychloroquine- Bolsonaro bought or had produced a supply for 18 years (!) of normal use even though the medicine is only valid for 2, and almost no doctor wants to have it's patients using it, and if that supply isn't used, he could even go to jail and/or be forced to pay back after he leaves the presidency.  

It should also be noticed in the past, Bolsonaro fought in courts for weeks to not have his exams, that had a negative result (allegedly), publicized, though eventually he gave up. And in March, FOX News reported that he had contracted the virus after his trip to the US, and their source was his son Eduardo himself, though they ended up denying it.

There's also the matter that, so far, pretty much everyone that came in contact with him had a negative result, though that might change.

 

 

[The Anti-Targ]

950 Deaths in the USA today. The last time there was over 900 deaths in a day was 11 June, which more or less corresponds to 20 days after daily case numbers started to drop. Today's spike corresponds to more or less 20 days after daily case numbers started rising again.

It will be surprising if this number is only a one off spike. More likely is that daily death count will go over 1000 and stay there for quite a while.