Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over

[rotting sea cow]

42 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't know about saving economies exactly. I don't think any country's economy comes out of this unscathed regardless of the small impact of the virus directly. Best that can be said is limiting the depth of recession.

Sure. With the world going in full recession (depression?) is completely expected that some economic troubles will hit you regardless. But with early action is possible to limit then to a certain extend and avoid the disaster that quarantine means for the economy and at the same time protect your population

23 minutes ago, Loge said:

People in those countries are a lot more disciplined than in the West. In Europe and North America you can't trust people to follow the government's recommendations, and you'd better not make rules you aren't ready to enforce. Western countries haven't seen a pandemic or restrictions of personal freedom like the ones we saw under the lockdown since WW2 either, so there is some excuse for governments to have been hesitant. That said, they should  have been planning for it since at least late January. But then it was just a Chinese problem...

Uruguay is a western country, Paraguay too, so is Costa Rica, Cuba, etc.  They aren't more disciplined than Europeans for example. A lot of them even less so. Still they have managed (so far) to have things under control. There are a lot of examples in Africa too.

The point stands. A lot of governments didn't care about until it was too late. A lot of governments still don't care. By neglecting to tackle this issue they have condemned the economy of their countries and the lives of thousands of their citizens. 

[Ormond]

9 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Sure. With the world going in full recession (depression?) is completely expected that some economic troubles will hit you regardless. But with early action is possible to limit then to a certain extend and avoid the disaster that quarantine means for the economy and at the same time protect your population

Uruguay is a western country, Paraguay too, so is Costa Rica, Cuba, etc.  They aren't more disciplined than Europeans for example. A lot of them even less so. Still they have managed (so far) to have things under control. There are a lot of examples in Africa too.

The point stands. A lot of governments didn't care about until it was too late. A lot of governments still don't care. By neglecting to tackle this issue they have condemned the economy of their countries and the lives of thousands of their citizens. 

Cultural differences on this are not just a matter of "discipline". One factor that probably goes into this is individualism-collectivism. People in more collectivistic cultures would be more likely to comply with requests to wear masks, for instance.

Latin American culture in general is much more collectivistic than American or western European cultures. The United States has the highest individualism score in the world, at 91.  The United Kingdom's score is 89.

In contrast, Uruguay's score on individualism is 36; Costa Rica's is 15; and Paraguay's is 12. 

Of course any one factor is not going to explain everything by itself and a lot of this is related to the actions of leaders. Brazil's individualism score is 38 and if they had a responsible President instead of Bolsonaro they would probably get more compliance with mask wearing than the USA and UK. But his example may actually lead to Brazilians being more irresponsible than the British or Americans.

 

[Luzifer's right hand]

4 hours ago, Werthead said:

One of the reporters attending the Austrian Grand Prix (in Spielberg, Styria) reported wearing his mask into a petrol station and reported that he got a very hostile response, which he was quite taken aback by.

Some people are very hostile to mask wearing people now. 

A friend of mine was insulted because of it while shopping. 

[The Anti-Targ]

You have to be careful with citing countries with low testing/million (like Uruguay) for having the virus under control. Uruguay has double the deaths/million than New Zealand but about 10% fewer confirmed cases per million. And tests/million is about 1/4 that of New Zealand. Uruguay is still getting new cases (not sure if they are recent arrivals in isolation like NZ's current 24 cases or if they are existing residents). So all that adds up to maybe there's more virus in the country than official figures imply. Which maybe means its circulating somewhat undetected in the population.

These countries do appear to have the disease under control and I hope it stays that way. But the disease may also just be bubbling away in the population and will break out as soon as people stop taking the appropriate precautions.

[DireWolfSpirit]

I've a bit impressed with most of my fellow citizens in this region. Despite living in the far, rural, sparsely populated north here, right on the Wisconsin/Upper Peninsula (Michigan) border. People have been fairly vigilant about the mask wearing and soc distancing.

It's been less than 100% compliance of course, but nonetheless there's been a nice discipline within the community, where despite a low rate of infections people have still been taking the precautions, at least the ones I've been in contact with. 

I think both my county and the Mich county we border with both are still below 100 cases a piece despite covering 100's of miles in total.

This is no time for arrogance, this is the time for self preservation. As Ned put it. "We've come to a dangerous place."

Only a very special fool ignores these signs, I have collections of masks literally everywhere I'm at regularly. You really do get used to them unless your just hopelessly vain.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

8 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

This has got to be a terrible period for folks that are single against their wishes.

Positive spin is there's been a massive spike in sexting?

[Fez]

18 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Positive spin is there's been a massive spike in sexting?

Not in my experience.

But maybe I've been pursuing the wrong women in online dating. It's all just awkward as hell right now.

[Starkess]

On 7/3/2020 at 1:37 PM, Zorral said:

Also they are MOVING, not standing in one place, face to face, and yelling in each others' faces, as they do in bars and restaurants, even when in the street, not inside and seated, and doing it for 3- 4 hours all together, in each others' unmasked faces.

Which is what is going on here. The sheer number and density of these places having filled up both the sidewalks and the streets, the number of people stationary, f2f, w/0 masks, this number of people far exceeds the 25 - 30 people rule. These blocks of restaurant tables etc., converge, like rain drops converge to make a rivelet, rivelets converge, become puddles, etc. This is very dangerous to those of us who live here.  The people in these restaurants are not locals -- and more and more are not even from New York or New Jersey, but Texas and Florida (as I can see from the license plates).  As per usual in this country, nobody thought this through. All they thought was REVENUE! Which means NYC at least is going to be right back to where it was in April, probably by early August, if not sooner.

Mostly the Experts won't dine in this sort of setting either. This is very interesting. Though they are The Experts, for good reasons, this is also common sense based upon what (little) we actually know and / or suspect about the virus's mode of infection.

None of them will / would travel unless it was some very great emergency. They will not see people who aren't already part of their safe circle. Except for those who are working still in offices, which most of them are -- and then they wear masks and do all the rest. Their attitude is "I cannot afford to get sick because I am the one who deals with the sick."

For those who are located in regions that are spiking now rather than earlier, as Arizona, they have tightened up their protocol practices considerably. Where at the beginning one of them got a hair cut inside his house (masks worn), one will only do it outside now, and the others just won't and / or haven't done it at all.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/how-fauci-5-other-health-specialists-deal-with-covid-19-risks-in-their-everyday-lives/2020/07/02/d4665ed6-b6fb-11ea-a510-55bf26485c93_story.html?

 

 

I know you have a lot of anxiety about this, understandably, but the numbers in NY continue to look fine. The numbers in the US are spiking (and the national response has been horrible, I agree!), but this is very location dependent. I am in a similar situation in Chicago, although it never got as bad as in NYC, but we had a clear spike and decline, and our numbers have not risen again even with outdoor dining allowed. Cracking down harder in NYC isn't going to prevent spikes in AZ.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

34 minutes ago, Fez said:

Not in my experience.

But maybe I've been pursuing the wrong women in online dating. It's all just awkward as hell right now.

I haven't done online dating in a long time. Had a lot of luck with flings on OkCupid, but only got one good relationship out of it.
 

But I was more hitting up flings, seeing how they were doing and it's not uncommon for it to eventually go there.

[Zorral]

12 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I know you have a lot of anxiety about this, understandably, but the numbers in NY continue to look fine. The numbers in the US are spiking (and the national response has been horrible, I agree!), but this is very location dependent. I am in a similar situation in Chicago, although it never got as bad as in NYC, but we had a clear spike and decline, and our numbers have not risen again even with outdoor dining allowed. Cracking down harder in NYC isn't going to prevent spikes in AZ.

How long will that last for NY, one of the only 3 states where the numbers are still staying flattened, hmmm?  In summer, with everybody traveling, and everyone traveling is utterly convinced their travel is the exception to which they are entitled to go on, leaving home and tracking through a whole lot of other communities and states?

People from Florida, Texas and Arizona--large numbers of Floridians and a little less, Texans, and more less, those from AZ -- flooding into NYC. They are to quarantine for 14 days, but as there has been no mechanism created to even see them come in, much less quarantine them, they are everywhere and bragging about it.  What is the point of any announced rules when they are not enforce? The owner of the corner restaurant on my block told us a couple of days ago that he threw two people from Florida out because they hadn't quarantined -- they were pleased as punch to tell him, when he asked, that they'd arrived the day before.  Another couple showed up in a local grocery store, where to enter one must wear masks, but they waltzed in anyway, without masks, because "It's all right, we're from Florida."

The mayor won't allow the city inspectors come to the restaurants that have colonized every bit of public land, obstructing fire hydrants as well, for fear of them closing all together.  He insists on opening the schools, religious buildings are allowed to have services and so on. It's only a matter of days before our rates go back up.

And now Disney World, in Florida, is reopening??????? Why is the world so fracking insane?  Did all these places catch it from the deathcultchief?  Or what?

I have called correctly what as going to happen every step of the way.  If I'm wrong about this, nobody will be more thrilled than me, but I'd take a $50,000 bet I won't be.

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

And now Disney World, in Florida, is reopening??????? Why is the world so fracking insane?  Did all these places catch it from the deathcultchief?  Or what?

Given the (mostly) outdoors setting of Disney World (as well as parks, beaches), I don't see it as egregious a mistake as opening indoor bars and restaurants. 

I am hoping my province (Ontario) will resist the push to have these opening soon. 

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Paxter said:

Given the (mostly) outdoors setting of Disney World (as well as parks, beaches), I don't see it as egregious a mistake as opening indoor bars and restaurants. 

I am hoping my province (Ontario) will resist the push to have these opening soon. 

You forget that it was beaches for spring break and Mem. Day that kicked all this off in Florida -- and elsewhere.

People travel to these places and travel back from where they came from and all they do / encounter in-between.  Reopening such venues as Disney World, as with casinos, is ridiculously irresponsible.

ETA: Just learned that across the river, New Jersey has mandated face mask wearing outdoors as well, as their cases began upward creep.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-jersey-to-make-face-masks-mandatory-outdoors-as-u-s-outbreak-widens-idUSKBN2492HG

https://gothamist.com/news/coronavirus-updates-july-8-200

Quote

 

4:00 p.m. Following New York's lead, New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy will now require people to wear a face covering when they are outdoors and social distancing isn’t possible.

At his daily press briefing on Wednesday, Murphy said that with the warmer weather, too many people are failing to wear masks while congregating in large groups outside. Since early April, New Jersey residents have been required to wear face coverings in public indoor spaces, including stores, eateries and public transportation.

The expanded mask order comes as the state’s rate of transmission for COVID-19 creeps to 1.10. That means every new case of COVID-19 leads to at least one other person contracting the illness. At the peak of the outbreak in March, that transmission rate was over 5. The transmission rate remained under 1 for 10 weeks but has continued to rise in the last few days.

“Not wearing a mask isn't a sign of strength, it's not a symbol of politics,” Murphy said. “Not wearing a mask is an act of selfishness, plain and simple. It's a sign that you think you're invincible and to hell with everyone else.”

Face masks will not be required for people who are by themselves or with family members or for children under two years old. The same goes for people who are sitting down and dining outdoors. But those waiting in line to order food or drinks or on a crowded boardwalk must now wear masks.

New Jersey was the first state to mandate indoor masking.

It’s not clear what the penalties are for those who fail to wear a face covering outdoors. Murphy says additional details will be released when he signs his executive order later in the day.

The mandate has already drawn pushback from state Republicans. “As usual, the Governor’s latest decree is arbitrary and unsupported by data,” said state Senator Joe Pennacchio. “The effectiveness of masks, especially those that fail to meet the most effective N95 standards, is debatable.”

State Senator Mike Doherty tweeted: “Enforcing a new mask mandate while cases have dropped is exploiting a public health crisis for power. Gov. Murphy's unilateral & oppressive actions are destroying the economy & will now negatively impact everyday New Jerseyans outside in the summer sun.”

Murphy promptly responded on Twitter: “STOP PLAYING POLITICS WITH PEOPLE’S LIVES.”

 

 

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

You forget that it was beaches for spring break and Mem. Day that kicked all this off in Florida -- and elsewhere.

People travel to these places and travel back from where they came from and all they do / encounter in-between.  Reopening such venues as Disney World, as with casinos, is ridiculously irresponsible.

Is there evidence of this? Not saying it's false, just curious.

Other well documented outdoor gatherings (Trinity Park in Toronto, Bondi Beach in Sydney) did not seem to be associated with any spikes. 

The travel factor is valid where community transmission is different between two places. So, for example, it would be pretty irresponsible to travel from Perth, Western Australia to Melbourne, Victoria at the moment. But I don't think there is a problem with travelling between, say, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick right now. It's at least no worse than hosting a wedding of 30 relatives in your home city. 

(P.S. Don't get me wrong on any of this - I am not a "let's go back to the way things were" person by any stretch of the imagination, so we are starting from similar places philosophically I think). 

[Kalbear]

32 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Is there evidence of this? Not saying it's false, just curious.

Other well documented outdoor gatherings (Trinity Park in Toronto, Bondi Beach in Sydney) did not seem to be associated with any spikes. 

The travel factor is valid where community transmission is different between two places. So, for example, it would be pretty irresponsible to travel from Perth, Western Australia to Melbourne, Victoria at the moment. But I don't think there is a problem with travelling between, say, Nova Scotia and New Brunswick right now. It's at least no worse than hosting a wedding of 30 relatives in your home city. 

(P.S. Don't get me wrong on any of this - I am not a "let's go back to the way things were" person by any stretch of the imagination, so we are starting from similar places philosophically I think). 

It's more likely to say that it isn't beaches in Florida, it was partying in houses and bars and clubs in Florida around this time. The beaches are where the party started, but not where they ended. 

We'll almost certainly see a similar spike in 2-3 weeks from July 4th. 

[Paxter]

27 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

It's more likely to say that it isn't beaches in Florida, it was partying in houses and bars and clubs in Florida around this time. The beaches are where the party started, but not where they ended. 

We'll almost certainly see a similar spike in 2-3 weeks from July 4th. 

Yeah that was my impression too. We should be calling out indoor weddings/funerals with many attendees, bars/clubs, family gatherings, post-beach house parties. Not necessarily going to (even a fairly busy) beach or park, provided distancing is possible.

[Kalbear]

1 minute ago, Paxter said:

Yeah that was my impression too. We should be calling out indoor weddings/funerals with many attendees, bars/clubs, family gatherings, post-beach house parties. Not necessarily going to (even a fairly busy) beach or park, provided distancing is possible.

I mean, really both aren't great. But indoors is SUPER bad by comparison to outdoors. Even with masks, though most of these places didn't do THAT either. A/C, recirculating air, relatively colder temps...it's all not good.

[Zorral]

People partying outdoors in each others' faces literally, for hours -- outdoors or not, there's a spreader present, it's gonna be spread among the gathering.  As at that church camp, where a high school girl contracted it and died -- this has made the news the last couple of days. The girl had underlying medical problems but the fact is she contracted covid at a gathering where people were playing basketball outdoors. In fact it was a Covid Church party, though that's perhaps irrelevant.

How many photos have we seen from the US and the UK since Memorial Day of people chucked right up in masses with each other on beaches? How much surge in cases across the countries since?

Which is why the Protests seem to be different.  First people generally are wearing masks. Second they are moving, and not in each others' faces -- at least until the cops come down.

The least risky way still to be with others than one's own house family, is, of course outdoors, wearing masks, Distance, only a few people, far from others, and maybe an hour at most.  That's what Fauci and the experts say. There will never be No Risk, no matter what we do or don't do, we do understand that, but this is the least risky.

 

[Kalbear]

shocking, Tulsa rally likely contributed to outbreak in Tulsa

 

 

[Ormond]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

You forget that it was beaches for spring break and Mem. Day that kicked all this off in Florida -- and elsewhere.

 

You seem not to realize that when people go to the beach for spring break they don't spend 24 hours a day on the beach itself. It is quite possible that the main transmission of the virus at that time was in bars and other indoor venues at night, not on the beach itself during the day.

I have heard Leana Wen, one of CNN's go-to physician experts, say more than once that she thinks it's not a good idea to completely shut down parks and beaches, because she is afraid that the people who would be in those outdoor venues will just move the party inside, where they would be much more likely to spread Covid than when they are outdoors.

Yes, it is possible to contract it outdoors when one is in close contact with others, but everything is a matter of degree.

[Zorral]

Ya, that's what I said -- and ya, playing volley ball on a beach with a buncha people breathing on each other for a few sets is actually risky.

To clarify -- I'm not advocating no one gets to go on a beach. But it has to be regulated, not what we saw on mem day and july 4 weekends of thousands of people crammed together for hours at a time as we saw in the UK and here -- not to mention their garbage and literally their shit.  People can stay for an hour or something and then move off to allow others a chance.  Hard to do, and that means not everybody gets to be there as not enough hours in the day, plus, you know curfew were imposed too.  So ....