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Fragile Bird

Covid-19 #15 : It Ain't Over Until It's Over

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On 7/2/2020 at 3:55 PM, The Anti-Targ said:

As far as I know the only trial under close to proper controlled double blind placebo conditions for HCQ showed no statistically significant benefit. It might still have it's uses, but I doubt it's the miracle drug the original French Dr claimed it to be.

Hopefully you are not referring to this study.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

I'm aware of the UK Recovery trial. Apparently it has also been heavily criticized. But I grant you, the evidence that HCQ is working is getting smaller and smaller.

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14 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

Coronavirus: Drunk people cannot social distance, warns UK police chief

https://www.dw.com/en/coronavirus-drunk-people-cannot-social-distance-warns-uk-police-chief/a-54059523

LOL, I don't what they did expect.

 

A boost to the economy. What a little virus compared to cash flow, right?

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2 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Hopefully you are not referring to this study.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31324-6/fulltext

I'm aware of the UK Recovery trial. Apparently it has also been heavily criticized. But I grant you, the evidence that HCQ is working is getting smaller and smaller.

No, that wasn't even a trial.

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I haven't done a look at US numbers in a while, but ooh whee, the US will cross 3 M confirmed cases today! 

I watched some Republican congressman from Texas on CNBC this morning, and the guy was saying re-opening Texas was the right thing to do, and it's been done right, and flare-ups were expected, they'll be dealt with.  Poor Texas. Oh, and deaths will be much lower than seen on the east coast because the infected people are much younger. 

Brady is his name, and the other outrageous thing he said was the highest death rate was in lockdown states and the safest place to be is in Texas and Florida because they have the lowest death rates. My jaw dropped to the floor. The fact that the East Coast was hit first and hard and no one had experience treating patients at first, nope.

Here's the link, it's been posted now. You might want to throw a shoe at your computer, though.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/06/texas-coronavirus-kevin-brady-argues-against-new-closures-even-as-cases-surge.html

 

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Posted (edited)

China is not having much luck at the moment, first Covid and now they’re concerned about a plague outbreak.

I know this is mostly media overhype and it isn’t a huge threat like it was 100s of years ago due to the advent of antibiotics and much more sanitary living conditions but it’s still not good!.

Edited by Jen'ari

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Outbreak? It's one confirmed case

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In the state of Austria I live in we are now back to masks in shops and restaurants. Most people I know seem incredible hostile to the idea. 

It was a big mistake that our goverment caved in to the pressure of the anti-mask crowd I think. Mask discipline was really good but I fear that people will not accept it the 2nd time now that most people seem to believe that the federal goverment overreacted. 

Popular tourist destinations closing borders again might wake people up. 

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23 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

Bolsonaro has COVID-19 symptoms. Insert your joke here.

I think you were supposed to post this in the Gallows Humor thread...

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https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/06/health/coronavirus-airborne-transmission-letter/index.html

Quote

 

[....]
"They don't want to talk about airborne transmission because that is going to make people afraid," he said. There's also an element of worry that if people think the virus is airborne, they'll stop doing other things they need to do to prevent transmission, such as washing hands, staying apart and cleaning surfaces.

"The best vaccine against fear is knowledge and empowering people to take care of themselves," Milton said. "I want them to understand to what extent washing their hands is important. Why wearing a mask is important is because it blocks the aerosols at their source, when it is easy to block them." It's harder to block aerosols once they are floating in the air, he said.

The virus is carried on droplets that come out of people's mouths and noses, and the sizes of those droplets vary. Large droplets fall onto surfaces rapidly and can be picked up on fingers and carried to the eyes, nose or mouth. Smaller droplets can stay in the air longer, and can be inhaled more deeply into the lungs.

"There is significant potential for inhalation exposure to viruses in microscopic respiratory droplets (microdroplets) at short to medium distances (up to several meters, or room scale), and we are advocating for the use of preventive measures to mitigate this route of airborne transmission," Milton and his colleagues wrote.

"Studies by the signatories and other scientists have demonstrated beyond any reasonable doubt that viruses are released during exhalation, talking, and coughing in microdroplets small enough to remain aloft in air and pose a risk of exposure at distances beyond 1 to 2 meters (yards) from an infected individual," they added.

[....]

 

 

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Saw this unreferenced comment in an article. Interesting if true, as some people think most deaths are in people who would be predicted to die within about a year.

Quote

A study tracking Covid-19 deaths found that those who succumbed to the illness would probably have lived another 11 years on average. In other words, the virus has wiped out about 1.4 million years of life in the US alone. So far.

 

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So I've been wondering more and more lately about the surge in US cases: I wouldn't have thought it possible even a few months ago, but is it possible that the coronavirus breaks the U.S. healthcare system?

I keep seeing increased hospital utilization with massively decreased revenue and just wonder how long this is realistically sustainable.

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I imagine hospitalisations during summer months will possibly tend to be lower, because people generally feel healthier with warm sunny weather, and unlike what some people say about feelings, feelings actually do matter with physical and mental health. If these daily infection rates stay this way heading into winter then the colder, more miserable days will probably lead to increased hospitalisation, longer hospital stays and maybe more deaths. I imagine this pattern would not be confined to the USA.

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28 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I imagine hospitalisations during summer months will possibly tend to be lower, because people generally feel healthier with warm sunny weather, and unlike what some people say about feelings, feelings actually do matter with physical and mental health. If these daily infection rates stay this way heading into winter then the colder, more miserable days will probably lead to increased hospitalisation, longer hospital stays and maybe more deaths. I imagine this pattern would not be confined to the USA.

The problem is that, in the states where cases are spiking the highest, hospital admissions are setting consistent records. I agree that things will get worse in the fall, but in some places here in the U.S., we might already be overwhelmed heading into a combined coronavirus/flu season in the fall.

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The charts of states daily new cases are stunning.

I am watching a slow moving train wreck.

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13 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

In the state of Austria I live in we are now back to masks in shops and restaurants. Most people I know seem incredible hostile to the idea. 

It was a big mistake that our goverment caved in to the pressure of the anti-mask crowd I think. Mask discipline was really good but I fear that people will not accept it the 2nd time now that most people seem to believe that the federal goverment overreacted. 

Popular tourist destinations closing borders again might wake people up. 

Threaten them with a new lockdown and people will comply soon enough.

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Another article with academics claiming that SARS-COV-2 has been around for longer than first thought and did not necessarily (probably did not) originate in China.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/05/covid-19-may-not-have-originated-china-elsewhere-emerged-asia/

Quote

Exclusive: Covid-19 may not have originated in China, Oxford University expert believes

Senior CEBM tutor Dr Tom Jefferson believes many viruses lie dormant throughout the globe and emerge when conditions are favourable

Coronavirus may have lain dormant across the world and emerged when the environmental conditions were right for it to thrive rather than starting in China, an Oxford University expert believes.

Dr Tom Jefferson, senior associate tutor at the Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM), at Oxford and a visiting professor at Newcastle University,  argues there is growing evidence that the virus was elsewhere before it emerged in Asia.

Last week, Spanish virologists announced that they had found traces of the disease in samples of waste water collected in March 2019, nine months before coronavirus was seen in China.

Italian scientists have also found evidence of coronavirus in sewage samples in Milan and Turin in mid-December, many weeks before the first case was detected, while experts have found evidence of traces in Brazil in November....

As far as I got because of paywall.

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20 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Another article with academics claiming that SARS-COV-2 has been around for longer than first thought and did not necessarily (probably did not) originate in China.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/05/covid-19-may-not-have-originated-china-elsewhere-emerged-asia/

As far as I got because of paywall.

It may be true, but it is much more likely that this is part of the chinese misinformation campaigne. We should wait for scientific (peer reviewed) publications of this theory.

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