TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely

[Quaithe from Asshai]

Welcome to TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely. 

The point of this thread is to discuss GRRM new blog post about TWOW. 

He mentioned 

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Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah.   I will be dropping back into Braavos next week.   

What do we think the story lines are for those characters, and where are they in the next book. Is it possible that we might have unexpected crossovers (Asha and Areo)?

[Quaithe from Asshai]

Are Tyrion and Ser Barristan back in Westeros?

GRRM said: 

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In between tapings, I return to Westeros.  Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah.

He did said "Westeros" not "Westeros and Essos."

Are we done with Slaver's Bay?

[ManBearPig]

Unless GRRM surprises everyone and concludes the story with the next volume, then the series won't be finished. 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

Some have speculated that TWoW will be released in two volumes. If that will be the case, can't GRRM pull an AFFC and release the first part now?

[Makk]

5 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Are Tyrion and Ser Barristan back in Westeros?

GRRM said: 

He did said "Westeros" not "Westeros and Essos."

Are we done with Slaver's Bay?

I don't believe he was making a distinction between Westeros and Essos when he said "In between tapings, I return to Westeros." He just means he is back writing in his asoiaf world. It's entirely possible they have left Essos, but I wouldn't make that leap from what he said there. 

[Nevets]

11 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Welcome to TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely. 

The point of this thread is to discuss GRRM new blog post about TWOW. 

He mentioned 

What do we think the story lines are for those characters, and where are they in the next book. Is it possible that we might have unexpected crossovers (Asha and Areo)?

I think it just means he is working on multiple story lines.  I wouldn't be surprised if characters combine stories.  It will need to happen if he is going to make much progress.  As for Braavos, while Arya is there, it is also a logical stopping point for Tyrion and/or Dany on their way to Westeros, presumably late in the book.

4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Some have speculated that TWoW will be released in two volumes. If that will be the case, can't GRRM pull an AFFC and release the first part now?

I suspect that if it is released in two volumes, it will be for production reasons - i.e., it is too long for one volume.  I don't think George is going to release anything until it is completely finished.

[Kyll.Ing.]

12 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

He did said "Westeros" not "Westeros and Essos."

Are we done with Slaver's Bay?

I think he just uses the word "Westeros" in much the same way the fandom says "Planetos". As Makk says above, it probably just refers to the ASoIaF universe in general.

[Donnycarko]

Always tickles me how we as fans over-analyse everything George says. 

"Now, I have a chapter to finish..." = "Guys! He said 'a' chapter! Singular! He only has one more chapter to write and then the book will be finished!" 

"I hope it will be finished by next year..." = "He promised 2021! CONFIRMED!" 

He really should just stick to "it'll be done when it's done" and nothing else because anytime he phrases things differently, we go nuts. 

[QhorinQuarterhand]

11 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Some have speculated that TWoW will be released in two volumes. If that will be the case, can't GRRM pull an AFFC and release the first part now?

I am one of those people and my guess is he has 2500-3000 MS pages that he is working on all at once as TWOW material and he doesn't consider it final until it is all done. Because he doesn't want to publish himself into a corner. 

I mean it's either that or he's working on TWOW and ADOS at the same time to not publish himself into a corner. 

Because the last option is he has been stuck in a hellacious amount of rewrites because he doesn't plan ahead nearly enough.

[Free Northman Reborn]

What I fear is a scenario where George is plowing ahead on the easier storylines, managing to wrap up chapter after chapter, while delaying working on whatever his latest Meereneese knot is. Hence him continuously saying there remains a long way to go, no matter how many chapters he finishes. And then when he finally gets to that knot, he finds the only way to resolve it is to go back and change the easier storylines he finished previously. 
 

And the process starts all over again. That’s the only way I can reconcile the current situation with him thinking he was almost done 3 or 4 years ago.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

8 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

What I fear is a scenario where George is plowing ahead on the easier storylines, managing to wrap up chapter after chapter, while delaying working on whatever his latest Meereneese knot is. Hence him continuously saying there remains a long way to go, no matter how many chapters he finishes. And then when he finally gets to that knot, he finds the only way to resolve it is to go back and change the easier storylines he finished previously. 
 

And the process starts all over again. That’s the only way I can reconcile the current situation with him thinking he was almost done 3 or 4 years ago.

When was his first "I'll be done/hope to be done" in time for the show to adapt it? 2014? 

 

[rotting sea cow]

14 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Some have speculated that TWoW will be released in two volumes. If that will be the case, can't GRRM pull an AFFC and release the first part now?

His editors have suggested to do that but he has refused, for whatever reasons. It might well be he was not happy with the situation of AFFC vs ADWD.

Also, for example If many of us are right and Barristan Selmy dies early in TWOW, GRRM's statements also mean that he is going back and forth between chapters adjusting little things. He cannot do that once the  book is released.

George, please, can't we have at least another sample chapter? Please?

 

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

29 minutes ago, rotting sea cow said:

George, please, can't we have at least another sample chapter? Please?

I wish he would release the chapters that he already read at conventions...

[QhorinQuarterhand]

I almost made a thread called "TWOW by August 25, 2021 Seems Like A Possibility". Glad I waited and this thread popped up instead.

I'm hoping he's screwing with us and he announces he's delivered Winds on the 31st.

[Loras]

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Also, for example If many of us are right and Barristan Selmy dies early in TWOW, GRRM's statements also mean that he is going back and forth between chapters adjusting little things. He cannot do that once the  book is released.

While you could be right about George going back to early chapters, I’m really not sure about Ser Barristan dying early.

He really is the character that connects ALL of the other characters in the Meereen plot. He knows Tyrion, Jorah (and what Dany said to him), Brown Ben, Tatters, the Dornish, Skahaz, Hizdahr, Green Grace, and likely Victarion seeing as he fought in Balon’s rebellion.  He likely has to survive the battle because without him the entire plot would lose a lot of focus.

His reckoning should really come from Dany - he acted on her behalf - and if she isn’t happy with it, she should deal with him.

[Werthead]

21 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Some have speculated that TWoW will be released in two volumes. If that will be the case, can't GRRM pull an AFFC and release the first part now?

Probably not. The AFFC situation was basically because George had 1600 MS pages in hand (for the pre-split AFFC), which was (then) too big for one volume and completed story arcs for some characters, others only half-finished and some barely started. Daniel Abraham suggested splitting the book by location rather than time, and George realised the finished and nearly-finished story arcs were pretty much all in the south of Westeros, so those stories did not cross over too much with the unfinished ones. So he was able to pull off the split relatively easily.

It would be rather fortuitous if that were to happen again. In addition, I think GRRM envisages more of a crossover between the North/South, Westeros/Essos, so splitting the narrative geographically becomes much more difficult.

It's entirely possible TWoW will be too big to publish in one volume, in which case it will be published as Part I and Part II, probably a few months apart. He needs to finish the entire thing to do that.

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And the process starts all over again. That’s the only way I can reconcile the current situation with him thinking he was almost done 3 or 4 years ago.

Around the same time he said he was nearly done in the New Year's 2016 post, he also said he hadn't done much rewriting, which was a major, major red flag, since rewriting is much more than half of his process. He even alludes to that when talking about his ASoS speed, as that was the book where did relatively little rewriting compared to the other volumes.

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George, please, can't we have at least another sample chapter? Please?

I think George regrets how many sample chapters he released for AFFC and ADWD, and people ignored his request not to record the chapters he read aloud and conventions, so I think we've got all we're going to get. I can see one more chapter maybe popping out once the book is actually done and fully ready to go as a pre-release marketing thing.

[QhorinQuarterhand]

8 hours ago, Werthead said:

Probably not. The AFFC situation was basically because George had 1600 MS pages in hand (for the pre-split AFFC), which was (then) too big for one volume and completed story arcs for some characters, others only half-finished and some barely started. Daniel Abraham suggested splitting the book by location rather than time, and George realised the finished and nearly-finished story arcs were pretty much all in the south of Westeros, so those stories did not cross over too much with the unfinished ones. So he was able to pull off the split relatively easily.

It would be rather fortuitous if that were to happen again. In addition, I think GRRM envisages more of a crossover between the North/South, Westeros/Essos, so splitting the narrative geographically becomes much more difficult.

It's entirely possible TWoW will be too big to publish in one volume, in which case it will be published as Part I and Part II, probably a few months apart. He needs to finish the entire thing to do that.

Around the same time he said he was nearly done in the New Year's 2016 post, he also said he hadn't done much rewriting, which was a major, major red flag, since rewriting is much more than half of his process. He even alludes to that when talking about his ASoS speed, as that was the book where did relatively little rewriting compared to the other volumes.

I think George regrets how many sample chapters he released for AFFC and ADWD, and people ignored his request not to record the chapters he read aloud and conventions, so I think we've got all we're going to get. I can see one more chapter maybe popping out once the book is actually done and fully ready to go as a pre-release marketing thing.

I'm confused. You said before that George wrote ASOS in 2 years. Yet his new post said he averaged 150 MS pages per month. Which is only 10-11 months. Was he only referencing him sitting down and doing a first draft of every chapter and then the 2nd year was rewriting? 

[QhorinQuarterhand]

Here's to hoping that TWOW answers all the Robert's Rebellion era questions. Because us getting Book 7 (almost certainly of 8) before 2030 feels like an awfully optimistic thought right now. 

[Jekse]

2 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Here's to hoping that TWOW answers all the Robert's Rebellion era questions.

We will finally be able to disprove R + L = J 

 

[Werthead]

4 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

I'm confused. You said before that George wrote ASOS in 2 years. Yet his new post said he averaged 150 MS pages per month. Which is only 10-11 months. Was he only referencing him sitting down and doing a first draft of every chapter and then the 2nd year was rewriting? 

That was an interesting statement, as it seemed to clash with all previous reports of the writing of the book. However, it might be that far more of ASoS was written as part of ACoK than previously suspected, and he's referring to the period of time after ACoK was published, so he didn't have to write 1500 MS pages in that time, maybe more like 1000. He clearly didn't write ASoS-as-published, from scratch in 10 months. As he's said, he even wrote chunks of ASoS on the assumption that they would be part of ACoK and they were moved (some of Arya's early ASoS chapters, most or all of Tyrion's ASoS storyline and others).

If he'd written all of ASoS in 10 months, the book would have been out a year after ACoK, not almost two. ACoK was published in October 1998, ASoS in August 2000 (although it slipped out to some UK bookshops in the last week of July).

For this reason it's sometimes easier to assess AGoT-ACoK-ASoS as one book split in three for size purposes, roughly 3,720 MS pages written in nine years (or roughly 3,500 in seven), as the splits between them are very hard to pick apart in the writing process.