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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely


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5 hours ago, Loras said:

I don’t think so... I actually think a lot of the things that happen from Barristan’s viewpoint were originally intended for Quentyn chapters and it wasn’t working.

i think some of George’s discussion of why Quentyn needs to get out of Meereen during Barristan’s viewpoint chapters actually explains why Barristan was needed as a viewpoint.

I think Barristan should be held to account for his recklessness.  He doesn’t understand the game of thrones so he actively chooses to manoeuvre Meereen into a situation where war is the answer - because he understands it better.  He really needs to be held to account for his reckless nature - where is the line between bold and reckless?

Depending on the ultimate end of the Meereen arc, by which I mean whether the city itself is restored or destroyed, will determine Barristan’s fate.  But your right, he should be judged by Dany for his actions...

... but if a significant portion of her strength (the unsullied) are destroyed in the Battle, I think it is unlikely she will forgive him.

Although Barristan was being manipulated by Skahaz, I'm also convinced that war is quite inevitable, and quite necessary, at this point.  It's certainly not reckless. He can't leave an army of occupation outside Meereen, as it waits for reinforcements from Volantis.

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The thing is Martin is allowed to have a life outside of this. I think it would be tragic if he not finish this series, and it would hurt. The knee jerk reaction is to blame him for a story out of control but his immersive story is why we are here, so I won’t fault him for that, not do I fault him for living a vibrant life. Not saying that anyone here is saying that but I do think some people dance around it.
 

I agree with the Barristan/Quentyn point. Including Barristan cut through some of the clutter, but something else to keep in mind was the Meereenese knot was a problem of people arriving at Meereen and their timing and order. Of all the people heading to Meereen in dance, only Quentyn arrived! Victarion, Jorah, Tyrion, Marwyn are still out there! Perhaps we have a Meereenese knot part 2

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1 hour ago, SeanF said:

Although Barristan was being manipulated by Skahaz, I'm also convinced that war is quite inevitable, and quite necessary, at this point.  It's certainly not reckless. He can't leave an army of occupation outside Meereen, as it waits for reinforcements from Volantis.

A peace deal had been negotiated and deposing Hizdahr was the final nail in the coffin.  Dany’s arc in Dance is about how many of her principles she is willing to give up to achieve peace for her people.

Barristan absolutely shatters her peace - with help from the Shavepate and Quentyn. From the information he has, from Shavepate, Barristan acts decisively.  

look to his final interaction with the Green Grace in ADWD:- “in return he gave her peace. Do not cast it away.  Peace is the pearl beyond price.”

To me, every action where he uses his moniker of ‘The Bold’ - mystery knight, Aerys at Duskendale etc - can be described as reckless but it is romanticised through flashback.

I could discuss Barristan for hours, perhaps I’ll start a Barristan in Winds thread so that we don’t go too far off topic in this one.

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

agree with the Barristan/Quentyn point. Including Barristan cut through some of the clutter, but something else to keep in mind was the Meereenese knot was a problem of people arriving at Meereen and their timing and order. Of all the people heading to Meereen in dance, only Quentyn arrived! Victarion, Jorah, Tyrion, Marwyn are still out there! Perhaps we have a Meereenese knot part 2

I think (hope?) that the Meereenese Knot is solved - in the spoiler chapters we see the arrival of the other major player - and is argue that Tyrion and Jorah have already arrived too.

The battle itself seems fairly straightforward in structure, with only the plot lines featuring Gerris, Skahaz and Daario not being directly addressed by a viewpoint.  The aftermath is going to be really complicated - especially if all of the viewpoints make it, as I suspect they will. 

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9 minutes ago, Loras said:

A peace deal had been negotiated and deposing Hizdahr was the final nail in the coffin.  Dany’s arc in Dance is about how many of her principles she is willing to give up to achieve peace for her people.

Barristan absolutely shatters her peace - with help from the Shavepate and Quentyn. From the information he has, from Shavepate, Barristan acts decisively.  

look to his final interaction with the Green Grace in ADWD:- “in return he gave her peace. Do not cast it away.  Peace is the pearl beyond price.”

To me, every action where he uses his moniker of ‘The Bold’ - mystery knight, Aerys at Duskendale etc - can be described as reckless but it is romanticised through flashback.

I could discuss Barristan for hours, perhaps I’ll start a Barristan in Winds thread so that we don’t go too far off topic in this one.

 

By all means, start a thread, but the peace was at the expense of her people.  And, of course, her enemies have summoned a huge armada from Volantis, something they kinda forgot to tell her about.  The Green Grace is not an honest broker. 

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On 6/26/2020 at 4:30 AM, Kyll.Ing. said:

I think he just uses the word "Westeros" in much the same way the fandom says "Planetos". As Makk says above, it probably just refers to the ASoIaF universe in general.

This is correct. He specifically mentioned Braavos, for example.

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On 6/26/2020 at 2:27 PM, Loras said:

While you could be right about George going back to early chapters, I’m really not sure about Ser Barristan dying early.

He really is the character that connects ALL of the other characters in the Meereen plot. He knows Tyrion, Jorah (and what Dany said to him), Brown Ben, Tatters, the Dornish, Skahaz, Hizdahr, Green Grace, and likely Victarion seeing as he fought in Balon’s rebellion.  He likely has to survive the battle because without him the entire plot would lose a lot of focus.

His reckoning should really come from Dany - he acted on her behalf - and if she isn’t happy with it, she should deal with him.

I agree. I don't see Barristan dying in the battle of Meereen.

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On 6/29/2020 at 5:50 AM, Drabanten said:

Must say that I feel rather optimistic after that blog post. Been a long while since he even wanted to mention finishing the book. Nothing is granted of course, but only the fact that he speaks openly about it makes me quite optimistic

Me too. Very optimistic. Of course, he had to say he wasn't really close to being finished yet, so as not to get everyone riled up. I don't expect it by the end of July, but before xmas, maybe done in september or so.

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14 hours ago, Loras said:


I think this is possible but Barristan’s arc in ADWD is actually really well constructed.  The first time that he sees sunlight through the dark clouds is when he realises that war is the only answer.  The dark clouds symbolise his self doubt, another crippling flaw of his character.  

Barristan’s glorification of martial action is a major character weakness - despite being well intentioned and that awesome speech from Barristan I.  
 

Knowing the publication history of ADWD and following it closely for all of those years, knowing that Barristan was created to slice through the Meereenese knot is testament to the incredible prose in this novel.

I think that Barristan has to realise that his way hasn’t worked - a commentary on the meta level, and one of George’s key themes in ASOIAF.  As well as he is the only viewpoint that connects all the characters without copious reintroductions.

If - as many expect - Tyrion is going to rise into a position of power in Dany’s retinue, it kind of needs to be through Barristan (at this moment anyway).  I’d also love to read his thoughts about Jorah’s return.

ultimately, I expect the Battle of Fire to be an indecisive victory for one of the sides - with the crux of the story being about Tyrion, Barristan etc trying to keep hold of Meereen after the battle.

None of us knows, and I don't pretend to be in the top rank of prognosticators, but i do not think the outcome of the battle of meereen can be indecisive. GRRM needs to wrap this baby up, and to do that he and dany and tyrion and others need to get the f**k out of meereen. So,I predict the Yunkaii, et all will be crushed, Volantene fleet destroyed or gone over to Dany, and so on. Dany will be heading back to westeros before the 3/4 mark WOW, and slavers bay will be left in the hands of some third-tier character, never to be seen again in the novels.

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5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

responding to some posts in the earlier thread, Arya is on her way back to Westeros after the mercy chapter. She will be out of Braavos, at least boarding a ship, by the end of the next chapter after Mercy.

I agree with you that she will never become an assassin, and I doubt there was ever intention to make her one.  Her training doesn't seem aimed in that direction.

I don't think that the Faceless Men have been introduced for the hell of it, though.  I expect her to remain entangled with them for some time.  I have pondered the possibility of her being sent on a mission to gather information about someone.  If that is the case, the most likely target would be Daenerys.  I expect that the Faceless Men (and Braavos's leadership) know a lot less about her than they would like, and, as a member of a Great House, Arya would be in a good position to join her entourage.  But that's really the only mission I can see them sending her on.  Certainly nothing to kill anyone..  She isn't nearly skilled enough for it, nor will she be.

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17 hours ago, Loras said:

A peace deal had been negotiated and deposing Hizdahr was the final nail in the coffin.  Dany’s arc in Dance is about how many of her principles she is willing to give up to achieve peace for her people.

Barristan absolutely shatters her peace - with help from the Shavepate and Quentyn. From the information he has, from Shavepate, Barristan acts decisively.  

look to his final interaction with the Green Grace in ADWD:- “in return he gave her peace. Do not cast it away.  Peace is the pearl beyond price.”

To me, every action where he uses his moniker of ‘The Bold’ - mystery knight, Aerys at Duskendale etc - can be described as reckless but it is romanticised through flashback.

I could discuss Barristan for hours, perhaps I’ll start a Barristan in Winds thread so that we don’t go too far off topic in this one.

I think (hope?) that the Meereenese Knot is solved - in the spoiler chapters we see the arrival of the other major player - and is argue that Tyrion and Jorah have already arrived too.

The battle itself seems fairly straightforward in structure, with only the plot lines featuring Gerris, Skahaz and Daario not being directly addressed by a viewpoint.  The aftermath is going to be really complicated - especially if all of the viewpoints make it, as I suspect they will. 

And Marwyn. He is still MIA, unless he has also had to undergo an alias or join a sell sword company to get to Meereen

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10 hours ago, Nevets said:

I agree with you that she will never become an assassin, and I doubt there was ever intention to make her one.  Her training doesn't seem aimed in that direction.

I don't think that the Faceless Men have been introduced for the hell of it, though.  I expect her to remain entangled with them for some time.  I have pondered the possibility of her being sent on a mission to gather information about someone.  If that is the case, the most likely target would be Daenerys.  I expect that the Faceless Men (and Braavos's leadership) know a lot less about her than they would like, and, as a member of a Great House, Arya would be in a good position to join her entourage.  But that's really the only mission I can see them sending her on.  Certainly nothing to kill anyone..  She isn't nearly skilled enough for it, nor will she be.

I don't think they're sending her on any mission. I think she's just leaving. In my prediction the unknown is whether they come after her to kill her for breaking their rules and leaving, or they just let her go. I think it's the latter. They've offered to let her go before, with no indication there'd be retribution for doing so. Not to mention, Arya having to dodge FM assassins for the rest of the story would introduce another completely unnecessary, pointless, and page-consuming subplot.

That said, I'm not saying that Arya doesn't somehow get mixed up with Dany and even become part of entourage before she reunites with her siblings, returns to westeros, etc. But again I doubt it. I guess GRRM could come up some interesting device to get Arya back to westeros, like crossing paths with Massey in Braavos (either revealing herself as Arya or not) and then hitching up with him for ride back to the wall where she finds Jeyne Poole and learns that she (Arya) is supposedly married to Ramsay. This would be an opportune time for Jon to wake up and (along with Jeyne) declare her the true Arya, which would be a potent political weapon against the Boltons, by knocking out one of the main foundations for their claim to legitimacy.

But the foregoing isn't even my prediction. i suspect she gets back to westeros still alone, probably through gulltown/maidenpool/saltpans, and heads for the riverlands looking for her wolf and her mother, where she finds them, to woe of many, especially the freys. eventually she is revealed as Arya, and Jeyne revealed as fake, but not before she and Nymeria and the wolfpack, in some sort of alliance with LS and her BWB splinter gang, wreak bloody mayhem in the riverlands.

 

 

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3 hours ago, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

Love the last line of the blog post:

Now you will have to excuse me.   Arya is calling.   I think she means to kill someone.

:D

To me this suggests she is back in westeros kicking ass, and as I've suggested it seems the leading candidates for getting their asses kicked are the freys. so for me this suggests she's back in the riverlands, maybe with her wolf and her pack, maybe with her zombie mom and her gang, maybe all together.

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On 7/1/2020 at 11:05 PM, Brother Seamus said:

None of us knows, and I don't pretend to be in the top rank of prognosticators, but i do not think the outcome of the battle of meereen can be indecisive. GRRM needs to wrap this baby up, and to do that he and dany and tyrion and others need to get the f**k out of meereen. So,I predict the Yunkaii, et all will be crushed, Volantene fleet destroyed or gone over to Dany, and so on. Dany will be heading back to westeros before the 3/4 mark WOW, and slavers bay will be left in the hands of some third-tier character, never to be seen again in the novels.

I actually think that in a literary sense Daenerys needs to return to Meereen and ultimately to be responsible for what happens there.  ADWD is a character study of Dany and poses a number of ethical questions for the reader.  To have any other character wrap up the plot in Meereen would be deeply disappointing... in a similar way that Theon had to return to Winterfell to face up to his own actions.

12 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

me this suggests she is back in westeros kicking ass, and as I've suggested it seems the leading candidates for getting their asses kicked are the freys. so for me this suggests she's back in the riverlands, maybe with her wolf and her pack, maybe with her zombie mom and her gang, maybe all together.

IF the wolves make an appearance in the Prologue (and I think that the start of the Mercy chapter is a big hint that they will), then I think Arya will return to Westeros before the end of the novel.

Im in the camp that thinks that George separating returning to Braavos in a different week to writing about Arya indicates that she is in Westeros at the end of her arc and he is going back to make sure that all of her Braavos arc makes sense to get her to that point. Pure speculation.

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15 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

To me this suggests she is back in westeros kicking ass, and as I've suggested it seems the leading candidates for getting their asses kicked are the freys. so for me this suggests she's back in the riverlands, maybe with her wolf and her pack, maybe with her zombie mom and her gang, maybe all together.

 

3 hours ago, Loras said:

Im in the camp that thinks that George separating returning to Braavos in a different week to writing about Arya indicates that she is in Westeros at the end of her arc and he is going back to make sure that all of her Braavos arc makes sense to get her to that point. Pure speculation.

I agree with you both. 

He also said in this latest update that he is writing something every day for several hours. He's on a roll!

But by saying he is writing about Braavos the following week... and yet he ends his update with "Arya is calling" isn't that who is writing during that week? Must mean whatever Arya POV he is writing/editing is new material post-Braavos most likely set in Westeros. He usually writes in batches in the same POV... so getting several chapters of Arya back in Westeros looks likely.

George said Arya would flower in TWOW. As Mercy, we see her point out she is still "a year or two" away from that. So does that mean TWOW pace will pickup a lot going forward? A lot can happen during that time period. If he continues that pace in ADOS then Arya could end the series the same age as Lyanna was when she disappeared near Harrenhal.

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5 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I'm not sure how much of a roll he is on, given that he said that he still has a long way to go. Unless he is just tempering our expectations.

Haha good point! Relative to his usual pace for sure. 

In this update, he wrote 3 new chapters in like 10 days. That is approaching warp speed for GRRM. ^_^

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