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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely


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15 minutes ago, MissM said:

Haha good point! Relative to his usual pace for sure. 

In this update, he wrote 3 new chapters in like 10 days. That is approaching warp speed for GRRM. ^_^

Potentially finished 3 chapters in 10 days.  He may have been working on those chapters for years.  And he often scraps what he has finished and rewrites, especially if he thinks of something in a future chapter that requires revionist writing in previous chapters.

So basically I wouldn't read too much into that.

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On 7/1/2020 at 7:16 PM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Amen Nerdrotic. Amen.

"I don't think he writes out of order."

Well, he does, and that's been public knowledge for well over twenty years.

Sigh, would it kill any of these people to do five minutes' basic research?

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44 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

Potentially finished 3 chapters in 10 days.  He may have been working on those chapters for years.  And he often scraps what he has finished and rewrites, especially if he thinks of something in a future chapter that requires revionist writing in previous chapters.

So basically I wouldn't read too much into that.

What's your opinion on George saying Arya will flower in TWOW and the impact that will have on the pace and time span for this book? Could he possibly covering that much time in just 1 book?

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2 hours ago, Werthead said:

"I don't think he writes out of order."

Well, he does, and that's been public knowledge for well over twenty years.

Sigh, would it kill any of these people to do five minutes' basic research?

Yes pick out 1 thing and pretend that means they are dumb and wrong about the rest. 

That was a totally genuine and unbias take there Werthead *rolls eyes*

I could easily take you pretending George was joking about having TWOW delivered by the New Zealand con this year as proof you don't know anything. Same logic. Except you were being intentionally deceptive. 

By your same logic I can say: Would it kill RLJ supporters do five minutes of basic research? After all, they don't present a single piece of "evidence" that doesn't run counter to the canon text. And that was true even in 1996. 

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17 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Yes pick out 1 thing and pretend that means they are dumb and wrong about the rest. 

It is a very basic thing that merely illuminates the writer's lack of knowledge about the subject matter.

If you want to make a piece saying, "Well, George is 71 and will have taken a minimum of 10 years to deliver the latest book, so if he does that again he might/will never finish the series," then sure, say that. Flailing around and trying to say that George only has half the book finished because he writes in a linear fashion when that is very clearly not true is just grandstanding.

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I could easily take you pretending George was joking about having TWOW delivered by the New Zealand con this year as proof you don't know anything. Same logic. Except you were being intentionally deceptive. 

George was joking, but his sense of humour in this area is not unfortunately particularly perceptive. At this point he should have known how that would be taken and what people would read into it. It's not his first rodeo and that's on him.

I do believe, however, that him making that joke and subsequently being alerted to how it was being taken by some readers is what inspired the latest, considerably more solid update, so it did have an ultimately beneficial effect.

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By your same logic I can say: Would it kill RLJ supporters do five minutes of basic research? After all, they don't present a single piece of "evidence" that doesn't run counter to the canon text. And that was true even in 1996. 

That's a very strange tangent to go on. In the case of that theory, it's not 100% proven in the books, but it is so close to being proven by both internal and external evidence that if it turned out not to be true, I would suspect George of deliberately retconning it.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

It is a very basic thing that merely illuminates the writer's lack of knowledge about the subject matter.

If you want to make a piece saying, "Well, George is 71 and will have taken a minimum of 10 years to deliver the latest book, so if he does that again he might/will never finish the series," then sure, say that. Flailing around and trying to say that George only has half the book finished because he writes in a linear fashion when that is very clearly not true is just grandstanding.

George was joking, but his sense of humour in this area is not unfortunately particularly perceptive. At this point he should have known how that would be taken and what people would read into it. It's not his first rodeo and that's on him.

I do believe, however, that him making that joke and subsequently being alerted to how it was being taken by some readers is what inspired the latest, considerably more solid update, so it did have an ultimately beneficial effect.

That's a very strange tangent to go on. In the case of that theory, it's not 100% proven in the books, but it is so close to being proven by both internal and external evidence that if it turned out not to be true, I would suspect George of deliberately retconning it.

1. A person can be wrong about one thing and correct about all the rest. 

It was silly way to try to argue George is only halfway done. But his other point with that is definitely valid. That George said he still has a long way to go on TWOW. That can be looked at through an optimistic lense, but there's no way to make that sound like he's anywhere near finishing. Of course George could be putting the last period on the end of TWOW as we speak, but he said what he said and he didn't say what he didn't say. 

2. George knew exactly how the "joke" would be received. He knew what song he wanted to play and he picked up the guitar and played it. 

IMO it was a soft deadline he gave himself and now he's moved that to next year. I think the beneficial effect was season 8 being so god awful that it both made a bunch of show fans want to read George's ending and it also reignited George's desire to finish Winds. 

3. I agree it was a strange tangent. Sent you a PM.   

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On 7/3/2020 at 2:55 AM, Loras said:

I actually think that in a literary sense Daenerys needs to return to Meereen and ultimately to be responsible for what happens there.  ADWD is a character study of Dany and poses a number of ethical questions for the reader.  To have any other character wrap up the plot in Meereen would be deeply disappointing... in a similar way that Theon had to return to Winterfell to face up to his own actions.

IF the wolves make an appearance in the Prologue (and I think that the start of the Mercy chapter is a big hint that they will), then I think Arya will return to Westeros before the end of the novel.

Im in the camp that thinks that George separating returning to Braavos in a different week to writing about Arya indicates that she is in Westeros at the end of her arc and he is going back to make sure that all of her Braavos arc makes sense to get her to that point. Pure speculation.

I've always assumed Dany and Drogon will enter the battle of meereen at an opportune moment, and her enemies will be crushed. She will have  virtually the entire population of dothraki behind her, and will take a big chunk of the Volantene fleet when the slave sailors turn cloak to her side. With or without Victarion and his ironborn alive, she will have the iron fleet as well. she will then be ready to leave for westeros.

she will decide on a ruler or ruling council or whatever for slaver's bay, and she will then be heading for westeros by the 1/2-3/4 mark of wow. I predict some detours on the way-Volantis, Pentos, or Braavos, or maybe all three, maybe others (Tolos or another of the cities that opposed her). This is where the influence and effect of Victarion, Marwyn, Moqorro, Barristan, Tyrion, Jorah, the Tattered Prince,  (and others including various Meereenese) will come into play. I have no idea what shakes with any of these, and where this takes her on way back to westeros, except I will predict that Victarion never makes it out of Slaver's Bay alive. I will also predict she attacks Volantis and destroys slavery there as well, and then further supplements her horde with tens of thousands of freed volantene slaves and marches on.

As historical precedent, I think we're looking at a blond female genghis khan, in the sense that (at some stages in his arc) with every victory he absorbed a big chunk of the fighting force he'd just defeated, and then moved on and did it again, so as he went his army swelled and swelled.

But Dany will be in westeros by the end of wow.

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On 7/3/2020 at 7:33 AM, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

I'm not sure how much of a roll he is on, given that he said that he still has a long way to go. Unless he is just tempering our expectations.

I think he was tempering expectations. I don't think he knows how close he is, but the sense of progress and the end being in sight is palpable.

I'm a lawyer and often write relatively long briefs (30-50 pages) as part of my job, and I have often joked that the last 10% of the work is 50% of the work. Meaning, I can have 45 pages of material of a max 50, have one or two sections/argument left to write, and then the editing and polishing, and find that those last five pages and the editing and polishing takes as long or longer than the first 45 pages.

I think that's roughly where he is now. He's got most of it done, and now he's on the hard part, which is finishing.

 

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5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

I think he was tempering expectations. I don't think he knows how close he is, but the sense of progress and the end being in sight is palpable.

I'm a lawyer and often write relatively long briefs (30-50 pages) as part of my job, and I have often joked that the last 10% of the work is 50% of the work. Meaning, I can have 45 pages of material of a max 50, have one or two sections/argument left to write, and then the editing and polishing, and find that those last five pages and the editing and polishing takes as long or longer than the first 45 pages.

I think that's roughly where he is now. He's got most of it done, and now he's on the hard part, which is finishing.

But again, he thought that he was close to finishing it in 2015. It's very possible that he has been stuck at that stage ever since.

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On 7/4/2020 at 7:07 PM, Brother Seamus said:

I've always assumed Dany and Drogon will enter the battle of meereen at an opportune moment, and her enemies will be crushed. She will have  virtually the entire population of dothraki behind her, and will take a big chunk of the Volantene fleet when the slave sailors turn cloak to her side. With or without Victarion and his ironborn alive, she will have the iron fleet as well. she will then be ready to leave for westeros.

she will decide on a ruler or ruling council or whatever for slaver's bay, and she will then be heading for westeros by the 1/2-3/4 mark of wow. I predict some detours on the way-Volantis, Pentos, or Braavos, or maybe all three, maybe others (Tolos or another of the cities that opposed her). This is where the influence and effect of Victarion, Marwyn, Moqorro, Barristan, Tyrion, Jorah, the Tattered Prince,  (and others including various Meereenese) will come into play. I have no idea what shakes with any of these, and where this takes her on way back to westeros, except I will predict that Victarion never makes it out of Slaver's Bay alive. I will also predict she attacks Volantis and destroys slavery there as well, and then further supplements her horde with tens of thousands of freed volantene slaves and marches on.

As historical precedent, I think we're looking at a blond female genghis khan, in the sense that (at some stages in his arc) with every victory he absorbed a big chunk of the fighting force he'd just defeated, and then moved on and did it again, so as he went his army swelled and swelled.

But Dany will be in westeros by the end of wow.

I think this is missing a key plot point, that Daenerys will lose one of her dragons to Victarion's horn (possibly before she even returns with the Dothraki).

I'm also not sure about the timeline. Whilst Dany can return to Meereen from Vaes Dothrak (or even the middle of the Dothraki Sea) very quickly, the thousands of Dothraki cannot. It is 1200 miles from Vaes Dothrak to Meereen, and ~470 miles from Dragonstone Hill to Meereen (assuming the journey map in Lands of Ice and Fire is accurate on its location), a journey of at least a couple of weeks even for the Dothraki in the latter case and well over a month for the former. I think the current Battle of Fire has to end without the Dothraki's intervention, unless it ends in the defeat of Dany's forces and them being forced to withstand siege for some time.

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I don't think he knows how close he is, but the sense of progress and the end being in sight is palpable.

George made a series of posts similar in tone to this one that were the first "light at the end of the tunnel" for ADWD in October and November 2009. And he was close to the end, but the book was still 20 months away from being published. Assuming George is following a similar path with his optimism gets the better of him, then the book might still be far off in 2021, if not 2022. A short wait compared to the nine years we've waited already, but certainly not imminent.

Of course, if George is keeping to his pre-TWoW promise not to provide any updates at all and only provided this one when it became clear that he needed to address this expectation of being done this August to temper expectations, then it might be considerably sooner than that. Right now, he doesn't know (and clearly was not comfortable giving us a page count, so we can't really draw too many conclusions, not that was always helpful when he did).

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6 hours ago, Werthead said:

I think this is missing a key plot point, that Daenerys will lose one of her dragons to Victarion's horn (possibly before she even returns with the Dothraki).

I'm also not sure about the timeline. Whilst Dany can return to Meereen from Vaes Dothrak (or even the middle of the Dothraki Sea) very quickly, the thousands of Dothraki cannot. It is 1200 miles from Vaes Dothrak to Meereen, and ~470 miles from Dragonstone Hill to Meereen (assuming the journey map in Lands of Ice and Fire is accurate on its location), a journey of at least a couple of weeks even for the Dothraki in the latter case and well over a month for the former. I think the current Battle of Fire has to end without the Dothraki's intervention, unless it ends in the defeat of Dany's forces and them being forced to withstand siege for some time.

George made a series of posts similar in tone to this one that were the first "light at the end of the tunnel" for ADWD in October and November 2009. And he was close to the end, but the book was still 20 months away from being published. Assuming George is following a similar path with his optimism gets the better of him, then the book might still be far off in 2021, if not 2022. A short wait compared to the nine years we've waited already, but certainly not imminent.

Of course, if George is keeping to his pre-TWoW promise not to provide any updates at all and only provided this one when it became clear that he needed to address this expectation of being done this August to temper expectations, then it might be considerably sooner than that. Right now, he doesn't know (and clearly was not comfortable giving us a page count, so we can't really draw too many conclusions, not that was always helpful when he did).

I agree the dothraki don't take part in the battle. Just Dany and Drogon. I had the same thought as you and I meant for my  prediction to allow for that, though it wasn't clear. When I said she'd have the dothraki behind her, I meant after the battle, as she begins moving west.

So, four weeks sounds good to me. This will give Dany a few weeks after the battle to sort stuff out and put things in order, and GRRM will have time to bring in any stragglers to Meereen (e.g. Marwyn), develop the Tyrion/Dany relationship, decide what Dany is going to do with Jorah, wrap up Dany's romance with what's-his-name, solve the mystery of who was responsible for the poisoned locusts, decide who among the various Meereenese hangers-on (Skahaz, the seneschal, the king, the green grace) are good guys and who are villians, and a half-dozen or more other dangling plot threads.

Then the dothraki arrive, and then relatively soon after she's off. Or, for that matter, she could tell them to go to Volantis (or Tolos first and then Volantis) and meet up with them there.

I am agnostic on the efficacy of the horn, but I'll allow your version regarding Vic and one of the other dragons is pretty likely. Vic may make it into DOS after all. Or, I could have been half-right: she could lose a dragon (but who would be the rider?) but Vic could still bite the dust.

I am pessimistic for Vic because to me so much of the sea voyage chapters in DWD and the sample chapter show him in way, way over his head with sorcery and magic and scheming and conniving. Between the dusky woman and Moqorro, he's got bad mojo left and right; sorcery being a sword without a hilt, and all that. Basically, i read the foreshadowing for Vic as pretty negative. But his end could easily be much further down the road, a leading candidate being at the hands of his brother.

And of course you're right that it could be two months or 20 or never. for sure we don't know, and probably he doesn't either.

 

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On 7/6/2020 at 10:42 AM, Brother Seamus said:

I agree the dothraki don't take part in the battle. Just Dany and Drogon. I had the same thought as you and I meant for my  prediction to allow for that, though it wasn't clear. When I said she'd have the dothraki behind her, I meant after the battle, as she begins moving west.

So, four weeks sounds good to me. This will give Dany a few weeks after the battle to sort stuff out and put things in order, and GRRM will have time to bring in any stragglers to Meereen (e.g. Marwyn), develop the Tyrion/Dany relationship, decide what Dany is going to do with Jorah, wrap up Dany's romance with what's-his-name, solve the mystery of who was responsible for the poisoned locusts, decide who among the various Meereenese hangers-on (Skahaz, the seneschal, the king, the green grace) are good guys and who are villians, and a half-dozen or more other dangling plot threads.

Then the dothraki arrive, and then relatively soon after she's off. Or, for that matter, she could tell them to go to Volantis (or Tolos first and then Volantis) and meet up with them there.

I am agnostic on the efficacy of the horn, but I'll allow your version regarding Vic and one of the other dragons is pretty likely. Vic may make it into DOS after all. Or, I could have been half-right: she could lose a dragon (but who would be the rider?) but Vic could still bite the dust.

I am pessimistic for Vic because to me so much of the sea voyage chapters in DWD and the sample chapter show him in way, way over his head with sorcery and magic and scheming and conniving. Between the dusky woman and Moqorro, he's got bad mojo left and right; sorcery being a sword without a hilt, and all that. Basically, i read the foreshadowing for Vic as pretty negative. But his end could easily be much further down the road, a leading candidate being at the hands of his brother.

And of course you're right that it could be two months or 20 or never. for sure we don't know, and probably he doesn't either.

 

While I do think that Victarion is drowning and is thus doomed, I do think that Victarion will make it into A Dream of Spring but I give him only one chapter. He'll be dead in within the first 1/4th or 1/5th of the book. And the reason he'll survive for that long will be because of Dany.

I hate to bust your bubble and that of @Werthead but I think Dany is going to take a trip to Asshai and maybe even Yi Ti. Most likely on dragonback either by herself or with her bloodriders. The YiTish and other eastern peoples can come to Meereen (which would save her the trip) but Dany can't leave for Westeros without coming face-to-face with Quaithe.

In any case, the Long Night is not just a Westeros-exclusive event but it's a global affair. The Five Forts of Yi Ti seem to be just as important as the Wall and Asshai is a massive but completely necessary info-dump waiting to happen. I'm certain that dragonlore and other useful bits of sorcery can be found in Asshai.

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On 6/25/2020 at 11:58 AM, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Is it possible that we might have unexpected crossovers (Asha and Areo)?

Hell nah lol.

Asha and Areo are 3000 miles away. If that.

If those two cross paths, it'll be in A Dream of Spring and I doubt even that.

The kind of unexpected crossover I do see happening is a Bran and Areo crossover by way of a weirwood tree in the Starfall godswood. I think Bran and Areo will be the POVs who will uncover the truth of Jon's identity, Ashara's fate and Ned Stark's activities at the Tower of Joy and then Starfall. And it'll happen in this book. Then in A Dream of Spring, it'll spread like wildfire on dry grass.

On 6/26/2020 at 9:03 AM, rotting sea cow said:

His editors have suggested to do that but he has refused, for whatever reasons. It might well be he was not happy with the situation of AFFC vs ADWD.

Was anyone really happy with the situation of Feast and Dance? They are good books but the situation is frankly a bit messy.

He wrote himself into a corner already with the whole FeastDance situation. It would be stupid for him to do so again.

 

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On 7/12/2020 at 8:30 AM, BlackLightning said:

While I do think that Victarion is drowning and is thus doomed, I do think that Victarion will make it into A Dream of Spring but I give him only one chapter. He'll be dead in within the first 1/4th or 1/5th of the book. And the reason he'll survive for that long will be because of Dany.

I hate to bust your bubble and that of @Werthead but I think Dany is going to take a trip to Asshai and maybe even Yi Ti. Most likely on dragonback either by herself or with her bloodriders. The YiTish and other eastern peoples can come to Meereen (which would save her the trip) but Dany can't leave for Westeros without coming face-to-face with Quaithe.

In any case, the Long Night is not just a Westeros-exclusive event but it's a global affair. The Five Forts of Yi Ti seem to be just as important as the Wall and Asshai is a massive but completely necessary info-dump waiting to happen. I'm certain that dragonlore and other useful bits of sorcery can be found in Asshai.

Things that exist solely in the ancillary material will not likely be critical to ASoIaF's endgame: if the Five Forts, the GEotD or Deep Ones are to play any significant role, they'd have to be introduced again and independently in a novel and explained at length, which is unlikely to happen now for space reasons. One of the reasons George had WoIaF and F&B was so that interesting trivia he'd created for the series could find a home without bogging down the novels with exposition.

There is also insufficient space or time for Dany to fit in a 6,000 mile side round trip to Asshai and back at this juncture. If Quaithe plays any further role, it'll be through her coming to Dany, wherever she is.

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1 hour ago, Werthead said:

Things that exist solely in the ancillary material will not likely be critical to ASoIaF's endgame: if the Five Forts, the GEotD or Deep Ones are to play any significant role, they'd have to be introduced again and independently in a novel and explained at length, which is unlikely to happen now for space reasons. One of the reasons George had WoIaF and F&B was so that interesting trivia he'd created for the series could find a home without bogging down the novels with exposition.

There is also insufficient space or time for Dany to fit in a 6,000 mile side round trip to Asshai and back at this juncture. If Quaithe plays any further role, it'll be through her coming to Dany, wherever she is.

Agree.

As multiple have stated over and over: It is not unlikely that, with the Dothraki-storyline and the sorting out of Slavers Bay and the Free Cities, we will be lucky if Dany & Co set sail/decide to make for Westeros in the last Essosian chapter of TWoW. Even if we take into account that a lot will be sorted out already when Dany comes back with Drogo.

If Quaithe is indeed someone other than simply Quaithe and/or would appear in person again, she would do this by coming to Dany. We don't even know if Quaithe is in Asshai.

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On 7/12/2020 at 12:30 AM, BlackLightning said:

I hate to bust your bubble and that of @Werthead but I think Dany is going to take a trip to Asshai and maybe even Yi Ti. Most likely on dragonback either by herself or with her bloodriders. 

Weird flex but ok.

Edit: That's a weird way to lead into a guess...and it sounds like you're saying her bloodriders would be on dragonback.

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On 7/6/2020 at 5:43 AM, Werthead said:

I think this is missing a key plot point, that Daenerys will lose one of her dragons to Victarion's horn (possibly before she even returns with the Dothraki).

I'm also not sure about the timeline. Whilst Dany can return to Meereen from Vaes Dothrak (or even the middle of the Dothraki Sea) very quickly, the thousands of Dothraki cannot. It is 1200 miles from Vaes Dothrak to Meereen, and ~470 miles from Dragonstone Hill to Meereen (assuming the journey map in Lands of Ice and Fire is accurate on its location), a journey of at least a couple of weeks even for the Dothraki in the latter case and well over a month for the former. I think the current Battle of Fire has to end without the Dothraki's intervention, unless it ends in the defeat of Dany's forces and them being forced to withstand siege for some time.

George made a series of posts similar in tone to this one that were the first "light at the end of the tunnel" for ADWD in October and November 2009. And he was close to the end, but the book was still 20 months away from being published. Assuming George is following a similar path with his optimism gets the better of him, then the book might still be far off in 2021, if not 2022. A short wait compared to the nine years we've waited already, but certainly not imminent.

Of course, if George is keeping to his pre-TWoW promise not to provide any updates at all and only provided this one when it became clear that he needed to address this expectation of being done this August to temper expectations, then it might be considerably sooner than that. Right now, he doesn't know (and clearly was not comfortable giving us a page count, so we can't really draw too many conclusions, not that was always helpful when he did).

Has George confirmed Dany will lose a dragon to Victarion's horn?

George's "light at the end of the tunnel" posts for TWOW started with his "I think I can deliver Winds in time for the show to adapt it" posts. Which were 2014? 2015?

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9 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Weird flex but ok.

Edit: That's a weird way to lead into a guess...and it sounds like you're saying her bloodriders would be on dragonback.

It depends on how big and fast Drogon grows. Right now, he's about the same size of Arrax or Tessarion. Which is big enough to strike fear into the hearts of everyone who faces him and big enough to cause absolute mayhem.

Dragons never stop growing as long as they have food and space so he'll get bigger.

And yes, Daenerys might take her bloodriders with her. Again it depends on Drogon's size by that time. Or she might go alone.

14 hours ago, Werthead said:

Things that exist solely in the ancillary material will not likely be critical to ASoIaF's endgame: if the Five Forts, the GEotD or Deep Ones are to play any significant role, they'd have to be introduced again and independently in a novel and explained at length, which is unlikely to happen now for space reasons. One of the reasons George had WoIaF and F&B was so that interesting trivia he'd created for the series could find a home without bogging down the novels with exposition.

There is also insufficient space or time for Dany to fit in a 6,000 mile side round trip to Asshai and back at this juncture. If Quaithe plays any further role, it'll be through her coming to Dany, wherever she is.

Actually I disagree on several points.

  1. Dany has to go to Quaithe, not the other way around. If that was not the case, then why hasn't Quaithe already come to her. I think Quaithe is either trying to show or teach Dany something (something which can only be done in person) or -- much less likely --  Quaithe is a villain who is trying to trap Dany. In either case, there is a reason why Quaithe hasn't come to Dany but keeps going out of her way to contact her.
  2. What is this about insufficient time? A lot of readers seem to think that the Wall is going to fall five chapters into the book and we have to hurry. No silly. The Wall will fall either at the very end of The Winds of Winter (the second-to-last chapter, the last chapter or the epilogue) or at the very beginning of A Dream of Spring in the prologue. Relax. Here's another thing a lot of readers have forgotten: the entire book A Game of Thrones took place over the course of at least a year (and some change). In fact, the prologue, Brandon I and Daenerys I all seem to take place well at about the same time months before Catelyn I and Eddard I. More likely than not, The Winds of Winter will likely play out over the course of a year. You wanna know why? Because Dany UNQUESTIONABLY MUST get to Vaes Dothrak, assume a position of power there in order to credibly take control of all the Dothraki khalasars, return to Meereen and meet with everyone there, subdue Qarth, pay Volantis and the other defiantly pro-slavery Free Cities a visit and go see Illyrio Mopatis in Pentos....all with her armies. And that's at the bare minimum. That's a lot of ground that she must cover. The last time she covered THAT much ground in one book was in A Game of Thrones when she traveled from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak to Lhazar and before heading back into the Dothraki Sea. Unless GRRM plays with time in order to change the starting point of the Essosi theater of Winds (hint: he won't be able to do that because it's too late), the events in Winds are going to take place over the course of a year. Besides, the situation at Winterfell is at least going to take a couple of months and that's not even taking into account what happens after the Battle of Winterfell is concluded.
  3. A 6,000 mile round trip (is it really that far) to Asshai and back can take place over the course of a chapter; it's not that deep. GRRM has skipped over or skimmed through travel times; he doesn't always write these expansive travelogues where a character only travels about 50 miles per chapter. Plus, Dany can travel the fastest out of every single character on dragonback.
  4. In regards to the Deep Ones, the Five Forts and the Great Empire of the Dawn, you are completely over-complicating things. The Deep Ones have already been "introduced" and talked about; you don't need to lay it on thick if you're planning on using the Deep Ones as a tenth or eleventh hour surprise. The Great Empire of the Dawn has also been introduced but much more indirectly and subtly. The legend of Azor Ahai and the Battle for the Dawn is what created the Great Empire of the Dawn. 2+2=4. Yes, The Five Forts is much more ancillary than the Deep Ones and the Great Empire and thus "brand new" information....that said it's nothing that can't be done over the course of one or two chapters (likely Dany or Tyrion chapters). People tend to forget how many of the chapters in A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings (especially the Catelyn chapters) were infodumps and massive worldbuilding exercises on fast-forward.
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3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

It depends on how big and fast Drogon grows. Right now, he's about the same size of Arrax or Tessarion. Which is big enough to strike fear into the hearts of everyone who faces him and big enough to cause absolute mayhem.

Dragons never stop growing as long as they have food and space so he'll get bigger.

And yes, Daenerys might take her bloodriders with her. Again it depends on Drogon's size by that time. Or she might go alone.

Actually I disagree on several points.

  1. Dany has to go to Quaithe, not the other way around. If that was not the case, then why hasn't Quaithe already come to her. I think Quaithe is either trying to show or teach Dany something (something which can only be done in person) or -- much less likely --  Quaithe is a villain who is trying to trap Dany. In either case, there is a reason why Quaithe hasn't come to Dany but keeps going out of her way to contact her.
  2. What is this about insufficient time? A lot of readers seem to think that the Wall is going to fall five chapters into the book and we have to hurry. No silly. The Wall will fall either at the very end of The Winds of Winter (the second-to-last chapter, the last chapter or the epilogue) or at the very beginning of A Dream of Spring in the prologue. Relax. Here's another thing a lot of readers have forgotten: the entire book A Game of Thrones took place over the course of at least a year (and some change). In fact, the prologue, Brandon I and Daenerys I all seem to take place well at about the same time months before Catelyn I and Eddard I. More likely than not, The Winds of Winter will likely play out over the course of a year. You wanna know why? Because Dany UNQUESTIONABLY MUST get to Vaes Dothrak, assume a position of power there in order to credibly take control of all the Dothraki khalasars, return to Meereen and meet with everyone there, subdue Qarth, pay Volantis and the other defiantly pro-slavery Free Cities a visit and go see Illyrio Mopatis in Pentos....all with her armies. And that's at the bare minimum. That's a lot of ground that she must cover. The last time she covered THAT much ground in one book was in A Game of Thrones when she traveled from Pentos to Vaes Dothrak to Lhazar and before heading back into the Dothraki Sea. Unless GRRM plays with time in order to change the starting point of the Essosi theater of Winds (hint: he won't be able to do that because it's too late), the events in Winds are going to take place over the course of a year. Besides, the situation at Winterfell is at least going to take a couple of months and that's not even taking into account what happens after the Battle of Winterfell is concluded.
  3. A 6,000 mile round trip (is it really that far) to Asshai and back can take place over the course of a chapter; it's not that deep. GRRM has skipped over or skimmed through travel times; he doesn't always write these expansive travelogues where a character only travels about 50 miles per chapter. Plus, Dany can travel the fastest out of every single character on dragonback.
  4. In regards to the Deep Ones, the Five Forts and the Great Empire of the Dawn, you are completely over-complicating things. The Deep Ones have already been "introduced" and talked about; you don't need to lay it on thick if you're planning on using the Deep Ones as a tenth or eleventh hour surprise. The Great Empire of the Dawn has also been introduced but much more indirectly and subtly. The legend of Azor Ahai and the Battle for the Dawn is what created the Great Empire of the Dawn. 2+2=4. Yes, The Five Forts is much more ancillary than the Deep Ones and the Great Empire and thus "brand new" information....that said it's nothing that can't be done over the course of one or two chapters (likely Dany or Tyrion chapters). People tend to forget how many of the chapters in A Game of Thrones and A Clash of Kings (especially the Catelyn chapters) were infodumps and massive worldbuilding exercises on fast-forward.

1. Weird logic. Quaithe already came to Dany several times through astral projection, likely via a glass candle. If there is an incentive to have them meet again, GRRM can use this connection as he did before. No need to bother with the logistical nightmare of sending Dany to the other side of the world and bringing her back again.

2. and 3. This series have other characters and plots apart from Dany. GRRM might cover huge swaths of distance and time off-screen in Dany's chapters. But other characters will not wait out this off-screen time doing nothing. 

4. Sorry to burst your bubble but for anyone who is not in denial, GRRM made himself sufficiently clear on this matter:

Quote

George,

I know that you don't like to talk about ASoIaF on your LiveJournal, and I wouldn't be upset if you ignored this comment, but I was wondering if you could answer a question of mine about the books.

I have been reading a series of theory essays concerning the "Deep Ones" mentioned in the World of Ice and Fire companion book. The series is basically about the origins of the Deep Ones and their lost society, as well as the marks they have left behind on Planetos in the wake of their disappearance.

When I read the WoIaF, I considered the Deep Ones to simply be great a great piece of worldbuilding and nothing more. However, upon my community re-read I came across numerous references to the Deep Ones, particularly in A Feast for Crows.

My question is born out of curiosity, and I would take any kind of response you would be willing to give, whether it be a confirmation, a debunking, or even a cryptic "keep reading".

Will the Deep Ones play any role in the main storyline, or is it nothing but clever world-building?

Thanks for taking the time to read this, and I'm sorry if I've frustrated you with this question. I love your books, and I am patiently awaiting the arrival of The Winds of Winter.

Thanks!

GRRM:

No, I don't see the Deep Ones rising to trouble the people of Westeros, as amusing as the idea might be.

I don't expect any of my characters to make it to Carcosa either.

Sometimes I just like to have a little fun.

 

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you guys haven't mentioned the go-east-to-go-west prophecy.

I've always felt the most likely explanation for what this meant was that Dany has to pay a visit to Asshai before - and in some sense as a precondition to - getting back to westeros.

What are the other candidates for what this prophecy means? Can anyone list and describe them in brief? I think I've seen something to the effect that it means she needs to land in the Vale first before proceeding elsewhere in westeros, but that doesn't seem plausible. Not a big enough deal to warrant a prophecy.

But, I don't think a side-trip to Asshai needs to take much in-world time. With Drogon she can go back and forth from Meereen to Asshai in a week or so. This could be during the four-week hiatus in Meereen discussed above.

The reason will be that there will be something she needs to learn or acquire about controlling dragons.

I agree with Mithras the issue isn't pages but in-world time.  The rest of planetos isn't going to have a beer and twiddle its thumbs while Dany takes a 2-year voyage to Asshai, and filling in that time period with story would expand the already overgrown thicket of subplots, not trim it as is obviously needed.

 

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