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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely


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6 hours ago, Rubicante said:

Does anybody else in this forum think that George didn't write a single chapter for the Winds of Winter throughout the duration of the television show (or if not a single chapter, then perhaps only a handful)?  I suspect all of the released sample chapters were one's that were meant to be in A Dance with Dragons, but got cut due to its length. 

Isn't it known, that most/some of the released chapters are the one's that were cut from the last book?

 

I suspect that George did write Chapters specially before the show and in the first seasons, because I believe he really tried to give them the next book. But working under pressure and with a deadline isn't the best writing environment as he so often says. So I guess he had some Chapters done and when he realized he can't keep the deadline for the show he again (prop. for the 5th times anyway) reviewed his older chapters and without the pressure started changing them again and therefore a lot he wrote since then.

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10 hours ago, Rubicante said:

Does anybody else in this forum think that George didn't write a single chapter for the Winds of Winter throughout the duration of the television show (or if not a single chapter, then perhaps only a handful)?  I suspect all of the released sample chapters were one's that were meant to be in A Dance with Dragons, but got cut due to its length.

The thought did occur to me.

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11 hours ago, Rubicante said:

It's really not fair for me to complain, as I can't even imagine the pressure George has been and is currently under to write these books.  And with that much pressure, I can certainly see how that would cause an author to "freeze" and having writing blocks. 

 

 

 

I mean, after 8 years, there's obviously not THAT much pressure on him. I mean, in the period of time he's had for Winds - not counting the tie invited for what he ALREADY had left over from Dance - Pierce Brown has written the Red Rising trilogy and 2 books of it's follow up trilogy. The Expanse writers have written 8 books in their series. Will those series actually finish before Martin finished this one book. It's entirely possible, especially for Expanse since they're about due going off their normal timeline.

 

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Well, I would hope that the conclusion of the television show would relieve some pressure on George.  Although I think his remaining books will be good, he can now at least reassure himself by saying "It doesn't matter how bad my books are, because they cannot possibly be as bad as the stinking pile of horse shit that television show was from seasons 5-8".

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19 hours ago, Rubicante said:

Does anybody else in this forum think that George didn't write a single chapter for the Winds of Winter throughout the duration of the television show (or if not a single chapter, then perhaps only a handful)?  I suspect all of the released sample chapters were one's that were meant to be in A Dance with Dragons, but got cut due to its length.  

From what we know, he completed ADWD in May 2011, lost most of the rest of the year to touring and publicity for both the book and show, and then had two hugely overdue projects he needed to deal with: World of Ice and Fire, which he went overboard on and ended up writing most of Fire and Blood at the same time (as far as can be told, around March-May 2012) and ended up doing more work on the map collection than he expected (based on the release dates, that may have been earlier, maybe in late 2011). From mid-2012 to late 2015, he seemed to write enough material for TWoW to be able to think that he could finish the book in late 2015 or early 2016 and have "a book's worth of material". Thay may not have been a super-sized book (like ASoS and ADWD) but maybe more like AGoT or AFFC.

GRRM is helplessly and hopelessly over-optimistic but he's not a lunatic. He's not going to go into a meeting with his publisher in the summer of 2015 saying he can finish the book in the next few months if he's only still got the ~370 pages he had reported ready in 2011/12. He must have had a very large amount of additional material completed. The real question would be what happened to make it so the book's still not out almost five years later (almost the entire gestation period of AFFC and ADWD by themselves). The supposition would be that as he'd reported doing very little rewrites around the same time (which sounded a lot of red alert klaxons for the old guard), when he went in to do those rewrites he found massively glaring problems that required a total rewrite (or so much editing and rewriting of the extant material that it may as well have been).

r/asoiaf has a very good post today about how much material GRRM had completed and when he had it completed based on his interviews and blog entries and it's quite interesting.

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5 hours ago, Rubicante said:

Well, I would hope that the conclusion of the television show would relieve some pressure on George.  Although I think his remaining books will be good, he can now at least reassure himself by saying "It doesn't matter how bad my books are, because they cannot possibly be as bad as the stinking pile of horse shit that television show was from seasons 5-8".

Seeing as seasons 5-8 were much better than the stinking pile of horse shit that was Feast and Dance, I’d say Martin should be very worried indeed. Considering the downward spiral the books have taken, I’m not too excited about Winds. Martin may be able to turn things around, but I doubt it. He wrote himself into a corner and I have lost all faith in him. I’m glad I was satisfied with the show’s ending as we’re unlikely to see Martin’s ending at all.

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Quote

Me and the Frog are headed back to Westeros.

It is Kermit the Frog.

It reminds us of Kermit Tully of Riverlands.

Kermit the Frog is green, which reminds us of the Green Fork of the Trident in the Riverlands.

Meera Reed has a frog spear shaped like a trident.

According to my Map Theory, the Green Fork represent R+L=J&M ... Jon and Meera Stark-Targaryen.

Quote

Me, [Jon & Meera] are headed back to Westeros.

He is currently writing the chapter at the Black Gate, where Jon & Meera are heading back to Westeros.

 

C'mon guys! You know nothing! Learn how to read GRRM's secret messages!

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5 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

It is Kermit the Frog.

It reminds us of Kermit Tully of Riverlands.

Kermit the Frog is green, which reminds us of the Green Fork of the Trident in the Riverlands.

Meera Reed has a frog spear shaped like a trident.

According to my Map Theory, the Green Fork represent R+L=J&M ... Jon and Meera Stark-Targaryen.

He is currently writing the chapter at the Black Gate, where Jon & Meera are heading back to Westeros.

 

C'mon guys! You know nothing! Learn how to read GRRM's secret messages!

Silly me, I was just thinking of Maggy the Frog..... Thinking of a very obvious hint.
Foolish me, there's always multiple layers in George's hints...

Don't mind me, I'll just be banging my head against the wall for a couple of minutes :bang:

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The Frog avatar from his blog is Froggy the Gremlin who "plunks his magic twanger". It is from an old show Martin watched as a kid. He talks about it a bit in Dreamsongs and wrote it into his story Armageddon Rag as well (which is roughly what the A Song of Ice and Fire title means, it's an Armageddon Rag/ragged (ADDING this link to rag song info))

 

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Don't get your hopes up people it's getting uncomfortable to watch, I remember 12 Days of Westeros, we thought it will drop any day now and it was 2014.

If pandemic continues few more months George will get depressed and demotivated eventually and take a hiatus, and if it relents he will hurry to make up lost time with his Hollywood buddies and other distractions he keeps piling up for himself (bookstore, cinema, train, cons, editing, 15 TV projects etc)

Am not saying he is not planning to finish it or that he won't work on it, but as I can see 2023 as more likely. And to remember some well calculated predictions put pessimistic scenario for a Dream to drop there.

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On 6/30/2020 at 6:27 AM, Werthead said:

I believe the chronology is that George started writing AGoT in summer 1991, was called in to work on the Doorways pilot full-time in the autumn with a view to it being a fall 1992 launch, which later got delayed to a possible mid-season pickup in January 1993 or a fall 1993 launch before it was cancelled. The formal cancellation notice was given in early 1993. GRRM still had outstanding Hollywood obligations and Wild Cards work and finished those off before returning to Santa Fe to work on AGoT. Pretty much the second he did, he decided to commit to it as his next full-time project and sent the outline to his agent, so he could get a publisher and get paid for it.

So the 173 manuscript pages he sent out in the October 1993 outline is probably most or all of the material he wrote in 1991, perhaps somewhat revised. So that constitutes about 20% of the finished book, which is a nontrivial amount. GRRM also counts the period in late 1991-autumn 1993 as important because that's when he was doing a lot of the plot development in his head and constantly thinking about the book even when he was working on Doorways (he once noted he came up with much of Tyrion's plotline - at least the original 1993 outline version - during a long commute to casting sessions in France), without which the book may have proceeded in a very different direction.

This also explains why GRRM occasionally says he returned to work on AGoT in early 1994 after  rather than late 1993 despite the outline having a hard date on it; after the outline was sent and before it was accepted for publication (which happened pretty quickly, in February 1994 I believe in the US and around May in the UK) he may not have done substantial work on it, since after Black and White and Red All Over failed to sell, GRRM was not minded to spend time working on a novel without a deal in hand for it.

He's mainly working on Starport and the screenplays for Wild Cards/A Princess of Mars in late 93 to early 94.

Quote

On August 6, 1993, we had one such meeting at the Fox network, to pitch a light-hearted supernatural horror show called Night’s Masters, based on a short story by Roger Zelazny. The meeting seemed to go well, but a week later Fox called to say that they weren’t interested in Night’s Masters. They were interested in having me create a show for them, they said, only what they really wanted was a science fiction cop show...I called the show Starport. On September 24, 1993, I was back at the Fox network, pitching once again...My next past was completed on January 17, 1994, the day of the great Northridge, California earthquake, so I called it the Earthquake Draft. -Quartet

Quote

I spent the rest of 1991 writing Doors, most of 1992 filming and editing it, and the first part of 1993 supervising the six backup scripts ABC ordered after screening our rough cut. There were other pilots too, The Survivors for CBS in 1992, Starport for Fox in 1993-1994, and a couple of feature screenplays for Disney. I was still editing and writing Wild Cards books as well. -Quartet

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A Game of Thrones certainly came alive for me, when I finally cleared away most of my remaining Hollywood commitments and sat down to work on the book in earnest in 1994. -ACOK Limited Intro

 

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On 7/23/2020 at 4:54 AM, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Silly me, I was just thinking of Maggy the Frog..... Thinking of a very obvious hint.

If it is Maggy the Frog, then GRRM is probably writing about Cersei's prophecy where Myrcella dies ... which is possible.
Quentyn's dead baby, Quentyn's dead. Writing about him would be impossible.
BUT clearly this is Kermit the Frog ... not Maggy or Quentyn.

So many frogs.

We have Quentyn the Frog being killed by Rhaegal, and Rhaegal's future rider, Meera, is also a frog-killer.
We have Maggy the Frog, who is based on Maggie Simpson's and her Phonic Frog.

In this 2004 Simpson's episode, Lisa learns that her younger, more smarter sister Maggie has a higher IQ than her. Lisa then takes a dark turn towards jealousy in this episode.

I knew this for a while, but I wasn't sure why GRRM would borrow this scene specifically. It felt random at first when I discovered it. But thanks to @The Fattest Leech, I learn about GRRM's childhood frog ... Froggy the Gremlin! Without a doubt, Maggie's Phonic Frog ~ Froggy the Gremlin!

Maggy the Frog -> Maggie Simpson's Phonic Frog -> Froggy the Gremlin ... confirmed!!

I couldn't find a specific youtube clip from that episode, so I just made a pic of that dark dream sequence.
https://imgur.com/a/zBbNB4I

 

Anyways, we have GRRM and "Kermit the Frog" "heading back to Westeros"

This should be the second-to-last or the last chapter in TWOW. Assuming he writes chronologically (he doesn't) he should be done with TWOW soon.
GRRM claims he wrote the Red Wedding chapter last for ASOS because it was emotionally difficult to write.

This chapter should be emotionally difficult to write too as I believe Hodor will be holding the Aladdin-Cave-of-Wonders-style mouth of the Blackgate, allowing the Invasion of Ice into Westeros by death & magic. Here is where Dark Sister is given to Meera.

The other final chapter should be Dany arriving at Sunspear, where the Invasion of Fire starts by diplomacy. Dany gains Dorne's loyalty and will begin reaching for allies in the Reach. Here is where Blackfrye is given to Dany.

If you guys have trouble picturing my prediction map at the end of TWOW, here it is:
https://imgur.com/a/PDIywfy
This is the perfect TWOW ending to get hyped for ADOS!

Anyways, IF GRRM is writing about the Blackgate scene ... he should be done with TWOW soon because it is one of the final chapters AND one of the most emotional chapters. GET HYPED!

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23 hours ago, The Map Guy said:

 

Anyways, IF GRRM is writing about the Blackgate scene ... he should be done with TWOW soon because it is one of the final chapters AND one of the most emotional chapters. GET HYPED!

 

Optimism? What is this madness?

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8 hours ago, Pdor said:

Optimism? What is this madness?

Yes you are right. I shouldn't be doing that. Let's not get hyped anymore, we learned our lesson from HBO Cleganebowl.
As we wait for TWOW, lets just all hide in the forums and hope for someone to post some fresh or funny theories to read.

Like a Cersei, Margaery, and Maggy the Frog theory ...

Spoiler

*Margaery going up a spiraling staircase to confront Cersei after she throws the High Sparrow out of the tower window (like Jaime->Bran ... and birds gotta fly in GRRM's story ... ya know?)*
Margaery: My Queen Regent! Thank you!! Are you alright?
*Cersei getting angrier, thinking about Maggy the Frog and the Younger More Beautiful Queen, channeling the madness of her real father, the Mad King*
Cersei: WHAT IS THIS MADNESS???? QUEEN REGENT??? NO, THIS IS THE QUEEN!!!
*Cersei kicks Margaery down the spiraling staircase to her bloody death*

 

For this theory to work, I hope Cersei has been practicing her kicking.
The sorceress [Maggy] was sleeping in the dream, as once she'd slept in life. Leave her be, the queen wanted to cry out. You little fools, never wake a sleeping sorceress. Without a tongue, she could only watch as the girl [Cersei] threw off her cloak, kicked the witch's bed, and said, "Wake up, we want our futures told.{Cersei VIII AFFC}
Oh that is a good start, a young Cersei kicking Maggy the Frog's bed.
But she needs to step-up her game so her kick can be as epic as this other TV queen's kick! 

Hahahaha "Muh Queen!" ... reminds me of TV Jon Snow, who needs his butt kicked!

Anyways Cersei kicking Margaery down the stairs because of the Maggy the Frog YMBQ jealousy reminds me of Lisa pushing Maggie and her Phonic Frog down the stairs, since Lisa was jealous of Maggie's intelligence ... but that was all a dark dream. Their mother Marge would be so pissed if that happened in real life!

 

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On 7/26/2020 at 3:12 PM, The Map Guy said:

If it is Maggy the Frog, then GRRM is probably writing about Cersei's prophecy where Myrcella dies ... which is possible.
Quentyn's dead baby, Quentyn's dead. Writing about him would be impossible.
BUT clearly this is Kermit the Frog ... not Maggy or Quentyn.

So many frogs.

We have Quentyn the Frog being killed by Rhaegal, and Rhaegal's future rider, Meera, is also a frog-killer.
We have Maggy the Frog, who is based on Maggie Simpson's and her Phonic Frog.

In this 2004 Simpson's episode, Lisa learns that her younger, more smarter sister Maggie has a higher IQ than her. Lisa then takes a dark turn towards jealousy in this episode.

I knew this for a while, but I wasn't sure why GRRM would borrow this scene specifically. It felt random at first when I discovered it. But thanks to @The Fattest Leech, I learn about GRRM's childhood frog ... Froggy the Gremlin! Without a doubt, Maggie's Phonic Frog ~ Froggy the Gremlin!

Maggy the Frog -> Maggie Simpson's Phonic Frog -> Froggy the Gremlin ... confirmed!!

I couldn't find a specific youtube clip from that episode, so I just made a pic of that dark dream sequence.
https://imgur.com/a/zBbNB4I

 

Anyways, we have GRRM and "Kermit the Frog" "heading back to Westeros"

This should be the second-to-last or the last chapter in TWOW. Assuming he writes chronologically (he doesn't) he should be done with TWOW soon.
GRRM claims he wrote the Red Wedding chapter last for ASOS because it was emotionally difficult to write.

This chapter should be emotionally difficult to write too as I believe Hodor will be holding the Aladdin-Cave-of-Wonders-style mouth of the Blackgate, allowing the Invasion of Ice into Westeros by death & magic. Here is where Dark Sister is given to Meera.

The other final chapter should be Dany arriving at Sunspear, where the Invasion of Fire starts by diplomacy. Dany gains Dorne's loyalty and will begin reaching for allies in the Reach. Here is where Blackfrye is given to Dany.

If you guys have trouble picturing my prediction map at the end of TWOW, here it is:
https://imgur.com/a/PDIywfy
This is the perfect TWOW ending to get hyped for ADOS!

Anyways, IF GRRM is writing about the Blackgate scene ... he should be done with TWOW soon because it is one of the final chapters AND one of the most emotional chapters. GET HYPED!

I have never heard of this Blackgate scenario but I'm intrigued. I guess....

Tell me more about this Blackgate? And why do you think this is being written last?

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