TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely

[broken one]

11 hours ago, Cas Stark said:

Yes.  Completely.  It is still very odd to witness.  I was recently rereading some random Dance chapters, and I was reminded both how much I loved the story and how totally insanely overwritten and overstuffed almost every chapter was, full of useless details that have no bearing on the story.  Those Dany and Tyrion and Jon chapters went on forever.

Oh, I love all the details. Every subsequent book was better than previous one and wrtting them consumed more and more time. Just imagine how great Winds are going to be!

LOL I remember times when suggestions he might not be able to finish were frowned upon here. "GRRM is not your bitch" etc

[Werthead]

9 hours ago, Nevets said:

He needs an editor that will stand up to him.  GRRM's garden needs weeding and pruning.  Trust me, it will look a lot better after that is done.

I wish people would realise that the role of an editor to a bestselling author is basically an advisor, at best, not the executive producer or director of a feature film with any real power.

There are contractual agreements in place between the author and the publisher. If the author delivers a finished novel as stipulated and the publisher refuses to publish it, they can be sued into the ground. When the author is a guaranteed bestseller, it's easy to say, "Okay, fine," and put it out regardless, knowing it can get blanket one-star reviews and still sell x million copies (hence the entire careers of authors like Goodkind or Kevin J. Anderson). On occasion an author turns in a book that's actually unpublishable and the only way for the publisher to refuse to publish the book is to sue the author for breach of contract, which is what happened to Joan Collins in the 1990s and Seth Grahame-Smith a few years ago (in the latter case there was also a  suspicion that he'd pumped out some quick crap to fulfil a contract so he could decamp to another publisher for a much larger sum of money, although personally I think there was a larger problem with publishers paying the guy any money at all for what quickly became a very repetitive gimmick of just adding zombies to literary classics).

In GRRM's case he actually does allow himself to be edited far more than almost any other guaranteed bestseller author, but there are odd things he dug his heels in on, like his editor telling him to take out most of the "Words are wind," sayings in ADWD or suggesting making it clearer if Coldhands is Benjen Stark or not, and him refusing. And at that point the editor has no choice but to say, "Fair enough" and press on. They have no power to force the author to do anything they don't want to, not when a large chunk of the company's balance sheet is riding on the book coming out on schedule.

With an author at the start of his career when he or she has no money and the book can be cancelled or delayed at the editor's whim because it has zero bearing on the entire company's bottom line, it's a rather different matter, of course.

[Cas Stark]

3 hours ago, Mithras said:

From PhilCon reports:

 

The second new POV was Brienne. Now, ask yourself whether her story had to be told immediately, or whether she has a story in the first place or not.

That's so depressing, to find how far he had lost his way even back then, thinking that Brienne wandering around meeting random smallfolk asking about the red headed girl 'had to be told immediately'.  I found the Brienne chapters very boring, except the last two.  

[Ser Gareth]

On 12/21/2020 at 9:01 PM, SeanF said:

Yes, it’s puzzling.  What did Martin see in Ding & Dong, at the outset?.

Fame and fortune probably.   From a commercial and pop culture perspective D&D did an amazing job.  They got the funding, the show looked beautiful and a large portion of the world were hooked.  So from that perspective GRRM chose very wisely.

But it was always meant to be a partnership.  The show was a massive success, based primarily on how it portrayed the source material.  As soon as the source material dried up D&Ds limitations were laid bare.  They aren't storytellers.  But that isn't there fault, because they were never meant to have been in the position where they had to write the story.

As for GRRM, I said it at the time and I'll say it again.  GRRM loved the adulation coming his way, especially taking glee in the twists and shocks (Eddard's death, the Red Wedding etc).  As soon as the show overtook the books, it was the show providing them shocks and big reveals.  GRRM has been trying to find ways to introduce new shocks and twists, that haven't been spoiled by the TV show (most likely as well as changing certain reveals now too so they're different to the TV show) and as such something that was already turning into a big mess (AFFC & ADWD were so inferior to the first three books) has gotten a lot messier.

[Ser Gareth]

On 12/29/2020 at 10:47 PM, Cas Stark said:

The whole thing is hard to fathom, even conceding that GRRM is a weird guy with some issues.  After he did the HBO deal he could have hired an entire town of flunkies to create flow charts, venn diagrams, computer programs to keep track of everyone's eye color, house ancestors and horse sex, write outlines, whatever.  It is inconceivable to me that he allowed whatever demons are at work here to over take him and, again, let's be honest, most probably ruin his legacy and his magnum opus.  The show goes down in history as one of the colossal failures of all time, and we still don't know whether it was due to GRRM saying 'done' here or D&D saying 'you're done here' or what caused him to cease all involvement except back slapping for Emmys.  If he never finishes the series, then the show is his real legacy. 

I disagree.  The show was a massive success.  It was commercially huge and is now part of pop culture history.  Even though the show has now long finished, it is still referenced heavily in other shows, everyday language etc.

It was a colossal failure to people like us, who have been addicted to the books long before the show ever existed, but we are in the minority and by some distance.

[SeanF]

23 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

I disagree.  The show was a massive success.  It was commercially huge and is now part of pop culture history.  Even though the show has now long finished, it is still referenced heavily in other shows, everyday language etc.

It was a colossal failure to people like us, who have been addicted to the books long before the show ever existed, but we are in the minority and by some distance.

Emphasis on was.

It’s now widely derided.  There's no way that people will ever look back on those last four seasons as a great story,

[SeanF]

30 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

Fame and fortune probably.   From a commercial and pop culture perspective D&D did an amazing job.  They got the funding, the show looked beautiful and a large portion of the world were hooked.  So from that perspective GRRM chose very wisely.

But it was always meant to be a partnership.  The show was a massive success, based primarily on how it portrayed the source material.  As soon as the source material dried up D&Ds limitations were laid bare.  They aren't storytellers.  But that isn't there fault, because they were never meant to have been in the position where they had to write the story.

As for GRRM, I said it at the time and I'll say it again.  GRRM loved the adulation coming his way, especially taking glee in the twists and shocks (Eddard's death, the Red Wedding etc).  As soon as the show overtook the books, it was the show providing them shocks and big reveals.  GRRM has been trying to find ways to introduce new shocks and twists, that haven't been spoiled by the TV show (most likely as well as changing certain reveals now too so they're different to the TV show) and as such something that was already turning into a big mess (AFFC & ADWD were so inferior to the first three books) has gotten a lot messier.

I enjoyed both AFFC and ADWD.  The most frustrating thing about both books, is that they built up to a series of climaxes which turned into cliff-hangers.  Cliff-hangers are fine if they get resolved fairly quickly, rather than taking a decade.

[Ser Gareth]

22 minutes ago, SeanF said:

Emphasis on was.

It’s now widely derided.  There's no way that people will ever look back on those last four seasons as a great story,

It's not widely derided.  It is derided by the same people who derided it before, because they're the only people who care about analysing and discussing it anymore.  The vast silent majority of people found it entertaining, but have moved on from it and have little interest in discussing it anymore.  So when it comes to people discussing the show, you're pretty much left with the rantings of those who didn't like the show.

[Cas Stark]

1 minute ago, Ser Gareth said:

It's not widely derided.  It is derided by the same people who derided it before, because they're the only people who care about analysing and discussing it anymore.  The vast silent majority of people found it entertaining, but have moved on from it and have little interest in discussing it anymore.  So when it comes to people discussing the show, you're pretty much left with the rantings of those who didn't like the show.

I don't think that is true, the last seasons is widely derided and almost universally hated by both critics and the audience, whether they were book readers or not.  In fact, book readers might actually go easier on the show's ending because many had foreseen at least the idea that Dany would become a villain and had given up on the show being faithful to the book along about season 5. 

But I'm curious, do you think he will get Winds out eventually?  This year?  Next year?  Ever?

[Ser Gareth]

1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

I don't think that is true, the last seasons is widely derided and almost universally hated by both critics and the audience, whether they were book readers or not.  In fact, book readers might actually go easier on the show's ending because many had foreseen at least the idea that Dany would become a villain and had given up on the show being faithful to the book along about season 5. 

But I'm curious, do you think he will get Winds out eventually?  This year?  Next year?  Ever?

A lot of people didn't like the ending (which I won't spoil here, although I do assume that everyone here has probably watched the show), but then those people would also hate the ending of the book because it is not the way it happened that they hate, but the who.  Up until the very last episode the reviews were generally positive.

I have no idea on whether he'll get TWOW out or not.  If he hasn't managed to complete it whilst being locked down during a pandemic then I fail to see how he is ever going to complete it.  I'd say it is 50/50 whether it will be finished in 2021.  And even if he does manage to complete it, I really struggle to see how he'll finish the entire series.  He said after finishing ADWD that he should have kept writing because he had momentum.  I fear he'll make the same mistake again and after this slog will take a break that will destroy any momentum he has writing ADOS.

But given how, relevatively, poor AFFC and ADWD were the question I ask myself is that if he does get the book out, will it be any good anyway?!

[The Winged Griffin]

10 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

But I'm curious, do you think he will get Winds out eventually?  This year?  Next year?  Ever?

I'm still holding on to the idea that by this time next year, we will at least have a publication date. 

[Cas Stark]

12 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

A lot of people didn't like the ending (which I won't spoil here, although I do assume that everyone here has probably watched the show), but then those people would also hate the ending of the book because it is not the way it happened that they hate, but the who.  Up until the very last episode the reviews were generally positive.

I have no idea on whether he'll get TWOW out or not.  If he hasn't managed to complete it whilst being locked down during a pandemic then I fail to see how he is ever going to complete it.  I'd say it is 50/50 whether it will be finished in 2021.  And even if he does manage to complete it, I really struggle to see how he'll finish the entire series.  He said after finishing ADWD that he should have kept writing because he had momentum.  I fear he'll make the same mistake again and after this slog will take a break that will destroy any momentum he has writing ADOS.

But given how, relevatively, poor AFFC and ADWD were the question I ask myself is that if he does get the book out, will it be any good anyway?!

I doubt it, based on the sample chapters and things GRRM has said about events that will take place, it seems that all of the quirks and problems with pacing and lack of a self edit that existed in AFFC and ADWD will still be present.  There will be chapters and chapters of random traveling by secondary and even tertiary characters and pages and pages of detail that clutters up the story.

ETA...I said earlier I was rereading some random chapters in Dance and I had totally forgotten some of the bizarre ticks like everyone saying fucking nuncle all the time.  He really went off the rails.

 

[divica]

44 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

A lot of people didn't like the ending (which I won't spoil here, although I do assume that everyone here has probably watched the show), but then those people would also hate the ending of the book because it is not the way it happened that they hate, but the who.  Up until the very last episode the reviews were generally positive.

I don t agree with this. I think people hated the ending (last season) because the journey to get there made people want certain things to happen that didn t happen. If in the books the journey is different then people will accept some things from the ending of the show easier. HOWEVER, just from the journey so far (book story) there are a lot of things that happened in the show that I can't ever see myself liking.

50 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

But given how, relevatively, poor AFFC and ADWD were the question I ask myself is that if he does get the book out, will it be any good anyway?!

I think affc and adwd weren t really poor books. They were filler books that were suposed to set things up for what happens next and to expose how character lead with certain problems. Once more books come out they are supposed to become better. For example, we now have a good idea of what danny, jon, cersei and euron are able to do as rulers. We will probably have the same information about faegon pretty soon. 

However, if he intends to end the series in 2 books and the ending is simillar to the show then I will probably hate the book.

57 minutes ago, Ser Gareth said:

I have no idea on whether he'll get TWOW out or not.  If he hasn't managed to complete it whilst being locked down during a pandemic then I fail to see how he is ever going to complete it.  I'd say it is 50/50 whether it will be finished in 2021.  And even if he does manage to complete it, I really struggle to see how he'll finish the entire series.  He said after finishing ADWD that he should have kept writing because he had momentum.  I fear he'll make the same mistake again and after this slog will take a break that will destroy any momentum he has writing ADOS.

Here I completly agree. If he didn t finish winds this year then I have no idea if he will ever finish it. Besides the lockdown hollywod was basically put on hold. He had very little to do besides writting winds... 

[divica]

1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I'm still holding on to the idea that by this time next year, we will at least have a publication date. 

when does house of the dragon air?

I imagine the months prior to that, during the show airing and after it airs will be very time consuming for him. I am not even taking into account whatever other crap he is involved with. If he doesn t complete winds before hollywod takes his time again I think it will be years before he finishes the book.

[$erPounce]

A Feast of Crows and A Dance of Dragons were certainly good books, although I also had the impression that certain chapters could be merged or were not exactly necessary. I found this mainly in the Tyrion chapters.  I must say that I enjoy the interactions with the Griffs (Tyrion VI is a gem!) and the chapters in Volantis, but everything seems to take longer than it should. I was tired of the discussions between Penny and Tyrion, as well as the events in the slaver's camps.

I find the story arcs of Daenerys and Jon Snow in A Dance with Dragons one of the better in the series, although I know not everyone appreciates them. In general, I am very satisfied with these two books, although the expansion of the scale makes it more difficult to make ends meet later. I love the many new POVs - Barristan, Arianne, Quentyn, Cersei, Jon and Brienne - but they have also contributed to making the writing process of the later books more difficult.

 
I do think The Winds of Winter will be released this year, in 2020 we got more reports about the progress. We will get more information soon, with the usual New Year's update on Notablog.

 

[The Winged Griffin]

16 minutes ago, $erPounce said:

I do think The Winds of Winter will be released this year, in 2020 we got more reports about the progress. We will get more information soon, with the usual New Year's update on Notablog.

There is no usual Not a Blog New Year's update. The only time he did an update on the 1st (or rather 2nd) day of Januray was in 2016, and it was eceedingly exceptional due to the fact that he had a deadline to respect on that day. It's not impossible that he will talk about Winds again in the coming week, but I wouldn't say it's a certainty at all. It's not usual, nor is it a "tradition" to expect on Januray 1st or the few days after. 

When he updated us on November 8, I, too, fully expected to see one more update before 2021, but here we are. 

[The Winged Griffin]

22 hours ago, divica said:

when does house of the dragon air?

I imagine the months prior to that, during the show airing and after it airs will be very time consuming for him. I am not even taking into account whatever other crap he is involved with. If he doesn t complete winds before hollywod takes his time again I think it will be years before he finishes the book.

2022. By which time I sincerely have the book in our hands. This problem could eventually become an ADOS problem. But George seems to be far less involved with House of the Dragon than he used to be with GOT. He doesn't write any episode for example.

[Padraig]

On 1/1/2021 at 2:52 PM, Ser Gareth said:

As for GRRM, I said it at the time and I'll say it again.  GRRM loved the adulation coming his way, especially taking glee in the twists and shocks (Eddard's death, the Red Wedding etc).  As soon as the show overtook the books, it was the show providing them shocks and big reveals.  GRRM has been trying to find ways to introduce new shocks and twists, that haven't been spoiled by the TV show (most likely as well as changing certain reveals now too so they're different to the TV show) and as such something that was already turning into a big mess (AFFC & ADWD were so inferior to the first three books) has gotten a lot messier.

This is an interesting thread but the above is complete speculation.

"GRRM loved the adulation".  Sure, don't we all?   But that's hardly his primary motivation?

GRRM has talked about a similar idea before.  Would he change his story because people "guessed" the answer to a mystery.  Trying to re-write the series because people know what is to come would be a certain road to disaster.

Now, that doesn't mean he wouldn't change a few things.  But those changes weren't because of the TV show.  Authors find things that don't work all the time.

On 12/30/2020 at 1:28 PM, Cas Stark said:

That's so depressing, to find how far he had lost his way even back then, thinking that Brienne wandering around meeting random smallfolk asking about the red headed girl 'had to be told immediately'.

I really liked AFfC and 95% of ADwD.   GRRM felt he needed to show what came after the wars (and yes, that includes Brienne but more than that).  A feast for crows as it were.  But it isn't a surprise that more people were unhappy with those books.  After we had built up to such a big climax in aSoS, they were tricky stories to tell.  He knew that himself because he initially wanted to jump over that time (with some flashbacks).  He'd possibly have left a few things from aSoS for aFfC if he knew what was to come.

But he felt that the 5 year gap didn't work either.  Its easy for people to say that his original approach was the correct one.  We'll never know.

Ultimately, an author can't please all his readers all the time.  We read the stories the author wants to tell, until we move onto a different author.  I'm glad they worked for me.

[Cas Stark]

32 minutes ago, Padraig said:

This is an interesting thread but the above is complete speculation.

"GRRM loved the adulation".  Sure, don't we all?   But that's hardly his primary motivation?

GRRM has talked about a similar idea before.  Would he change his story because people "guessed" the answer to a mystery.  Trying to re-write the series because people know what is to come would be a certain road to disaster.

Now, that doesn't mean he wouldn't change a few things.  But those changes weren't because of the TV show.  Authors find things that don't work all the time.

I really liked AFfC and 95% of ADwD.   GRRM felt he needed to show what came after the wars (and yes, that includes Brienne but more than that).  A feast for crows as it were.  But it isn't a surprise that more people were unhappy with those books.  After we had built up to such a big climax in aSoS, they were tricky stories to tell.  He knew that himself because he initially wanted to jump over that time (with some flashbacks).  He'd possibly have left a few things from aSoS for aFfC if he knew what was to come.

But he felt that the 5 year gap didn't work either.  Its easy for people to say that his original approach was the correct one.  We'll never know.

Ultimately, an author can't please all his readers all the time.  We read the stories the author wants to tell, until we move onto a different author.  I'm glad they worked for me.

I feel like we do know, at least I feel that I 'know' there is enough evidence to say that the 5 year gap would have been preferable and to me anyway, the last two novels are objectively worse than the first 3.   Brienne's wanderings didnt' tell us anything important that we didn't already know from Arya's time in the Riverlands and certainly nothing that couldn't have been covered by an existing POV.  AFFC had some good chapters, but realistically, it wasn't much of a novel, there wasn't a character arc for anyone except Cersei, there were some chapters and some stuff happened, nothing centering around any major story that had beginning, middle or end or even a narrative or thematic consistency.  So, I count that is evidence that the results of giving up on the gap were negative.  The same goes for Dance, he doubled down on writing E V E R Y T H I N G, pages and pages of needless detail isn't worldbuilding it is authorial excess, and while more happens in Dance than Feast, there still isn't much in terms of a narrative arc although the characters move forward in their growth and their stories, mostly, it is at a glacial pace. 

 

ETA and it is January 2, 2021, and no word on Winds completion, which is to me more evidence that everything he has done since Storm of Swords has led him down the wrong path.  

 

 

[SeanF]

Had Dany’s, Tyrion’s and Jon’s stories been pruned, and we then got the battle of Meereen, and the battle of ice, I think everyone would say ADWD was fantastic.