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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely


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So far, 7 days into 2021 he has blogged about politics and Wild Cards, maybe football too.  I may put Winds in 2021 down to a 40% chance.  Soon we will be at almost a year of lock down, so for GRRM, no trips, no events, fewer meetings and still, so far, no book.  

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On 1/6/2021 at 2:06 AM, BlackLightning said:

Could we have ever had a book with just Dany, Jon and the POVs associated with the Battles of Ice and Fire? Yes but that was a bit beyond the pale, it's too late now and that book would've been pretty big.

The problem and the biggest mistake of GRRM was splitting Feast and Dance up so weirdly and unevenly. He should've never listened to his friend and just kept to his idea of releasing a intermission-type of novella for the Dornish and the Ironborn characters and then a novel for everyone else.

I don't think he ever considered such an idea. There was the original plan (immediately after abandoning the five-year-gap) of the super-prologue containing all the Dornish and Ironborn material, then the idea of scattering them between the pre-split fourth book, then the final idea of splitting them between AFFC and ADWD by geographical location. It was Daniel Abraham's suggestion to do the geographical split, not removing any kind of novella idea (I think you might be getting confused with Arms of the Kraken, the sample novella which combined most of the ironborn chapters into one story, but that was only ever a preview). 

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Are we really not sure about their reliability? How many times does someone's sources have to be incorrect before we question the value of a source for the specific purpose of giving us insight into progress or publishing plans?

And as Cas says, the fact is that you can pretty much any "late 20XX" and that was a date RH and George hoped to have the book done by. This is not really insightful or useful.

Brynden writes some really good, insightful stuff, and some great explainers of things. He's a good guy. But I (purely in my personal capacity) think he should consider getting out of the "insider source" line of things until after the book is published. Then he can share a bit more information in a retrospective essay explaining his understanding of the process based on what his source or sources told him, if he wishes, rather than contributing to the gossip mill.

 

Agreed. Brynden is a solid dude, but he has a habit of listening to people "in the biz" who "know things." I have people in the biz who know things as well, but it turns out they're most of the time repeating garbled things they heard at a drinks party "in the biz" from someone else who'd heard something from someone who worked at George's Argentinian publisher. Unless your person "in the biz" is George himself or, at the absolute least, Anne Groell, it's a completely meaningless statement. Anyone else, even people who worked at Random House or HarperCollins, simply doesn't know.

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So far, 7 days into 2021 he has blogged about politics and Wild Cards, maybe football too.  I may put Winds in 2021 down to a 40% chance. Soon we will be at almost a year of lock down, so for GRRM, no trips, no events, fewer meetings and still, so far, no book.  

The last update GRRM provided on the book was on 8 November. The previous update was three months before that. His 2020 updates were the first of any substance since 2016. So I'm not sure why people were thinking he was going to do a big New Years' update on the book when he's spent the last few months already providing more substantive updates than he has for half a decade.

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43 minutes ago, Werthead said:

I don't think he ever considered such an idea. There was the original plan (immediately after abandoning the five-year-gap) of the super-prologue containing all the Dornish and Ironborn material, then the idea of scattering them between the pre-split fourth book, then the final idea of splitting them between AFFC and ADWD by geographical location. It was Daniel Abraham's suggestion to do the geographical split, not removing any kind of novella idea (I think you might be getting confused with Arms of the Kraken, the sample novella which combined most of the ironborn chapters into one story, but that was only ever a preview). 

Agreed. Brynden is a solid dude, but he has a habit of listening to people "in the biz" who "know things." I have people in the biz who know things as well, but it turns out they're most of the time repeating garbled things they heard at a drinks party "in the biz" from someone else who'd heard something from someone who worked at George's Argentinian publisher. Unless your person "in the biz" is George himself or, at the absolute least, Anne Groell, it's a completely meaningless statement. Anyone else, even people who worked at Random House or HarperCollins, simply doesn't know.

The last update GRRM provided on the book was on 8 November. The previous update was three months before that. His 2020 updates were the first of any substance since 2016. So I'm not sure why people were thinking he was going to do a big New Years' update on the book when he's spent the last few months already providing more substantive updates than he has for half a decade.

Oh I wasn't expecting an update, I only notice that he's blogging about other things, most notably WC, which is again usurping his attention, in my opinion.  I can't remember if he acknowledged that he failed to get the book out this summer for the NZ event or not, but no matter how serious or flippant that comment [one would hope he knows by now that such comments will be taken seriously], he didn't get the book out and he hasn't blogged anything encouraging about Winds in several months, so I don't see much reason to expect the book will come out 2021. 

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7 hours ago, ThotKiller said:

Agree. One of the things that disappointed me the most in FeastDance is the lack of focus. Bran Stark the character that we follow since the first book, his chapters in Dance finaly became entertaining and he have only 3 chapters... meanwhile Quentyn have what 4? 5? chapters? that was completely filler.

The same thing goes to non-POV characters, theres more page about master Yezza whatever his name is, Penny and her pig than Lady Stoneheart... Wasn't Cat Stark important to the history? why i read more page about some ramdom slaver having diarrhea and Tyrion riding a pig than LSH?

In FeastDance there is hundred of pages about Ser creighon, Ser Quincy cox, Nimble dick, Grandza mo Eraz, Reznak, Skahaz, Haazoo and hundreds of filler characters... and theres almost nothing about the white walkers. Wasn't the Others suppose to be important to the history? 

Bran's chapters have always been entertaining to me. I've always found them to be a treat yes because of how ethereal and mysterious they were but also because there weren't that many of them. Absence makes the heart grow fonder. I fully believe that we will get both a massive infodump pertaining to the Others by way of Bran and we will see the Others spring into action in this next book. And don't be dishonest: we saw the Others in the prologue in Dance. The only difference between the Others' appearances and activities in Storm and Dance is that the Others appear in two chapters in Storm and one chapter in Dance. And they only made one chapter appearances in Game and Clash. Everything else that we know about them is stuff we have learned third-hand from Old Nan's stories and the Watch's ancient, broken books.

Quentyn had 4 chapters. Say what you want about the other three but the last Quentyn chapter was NOT filler. Rhaegal and Viserion need to be let loose for several reasons, one being that them being locked away so long will prevent them from growing.

Tyrion's chapters were a bit excessive though.

4 hours ago, Rose of Red Lake said:

I didn’t know that was an idea that was floated. I like it. I read a fan account from 2000 where a fan asked if we would be getting a Cersei POV and he said something like, he didn’t see the point. I guess those POV floodgates really opened after Storm.

Yep.

The super-prologue introducing all the Dornish and Ironborn POVs was supposed to be a novella.

A Cersei POV became mandatory after it was made clear that Jaime and Cersei were not only drifting apart but going their separate ways at the end of Storm. With Tyrion on the run, Jaime forging a new path, Littlefinger shutting himself and Sansa up in the Vale and Catelyn Stark's return (which makes a reunion with Jaime mandatory), who was going to be the POV on the Small Council in King's Landing?

You can make the argument that you don't really need one. But that's a tall order especially at the point we were at the time. Even if it were done well (difficult), everyone would've hated not knowing what's going on.

So, it would either have to be Cersei, Kevan, Mace, Margaery, Pycelle or one of the Martells come to claim Oberyn's old seat.

You can't have a Martell showing up as a POV out of nowhere after that big of political shift. It'd be one thing if they were already there but all of the Dornish skipped town in Storm after Oberyn died. You'd have to not only introduce the Martell in question, but you'd have to plausibly explain why they are coming back to the city so soon after the deaths of Oberyn Martell and Tywin Lannister. Oh, and you'd have to do it in a way that doesn't make them look like they are the obvious answer to Tyrion's escape.

Jaime as a character and a POV spurns any thing political; so he'd be a bad choice as the Small Council POV. Besides, he'd be leaving soon anyways. Kevan, Pycelle and Mace are boring choices with Pycelle surprisingly being the least boring.

Cersei is literally the best option with Margaery coming in at a distant second.

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14 hours ago, Werthead said:

I don't think he ever considered such an idea. There was the original plan (immediately after abandoning the five-year-gap) of the super-prologue containing all the Dornish and Ironborn material, then the idea of scattering them between the pre-split fourth book, then the final idea of splitting them between AFFC and ADWD by geographical location. It was Daniel Abraham's suggestion to do the geographical split, not removing any kind of novella idea (I think you might be getting confused with Arms of the Kraken, the sample novella which combined most of the ironborn chapters into one story, but that was only ever a preview). 

Agreed. Brynden is a solid dude, but he has a habit of listening to people "in the biz" who "know things." I have people in the biz who know things as well, but it turns out they're most of the time repeating garbled things they heard at a drinks party "in the biz" from someone else who'd heard something from someone who worked at George's Argentinian publisher. Unless your person "in the biz" is George himself or, at the absolute least, Anne Groell, it's a completely meaningless statement. Anyone else, even people who worked at Random House or HarperCollins, simply doesn't know.

The last update GRRM provided on the book was on 8 November. The previous update was three months before that. His 2020 updates were the first of any substance since 2016. So I'm not sure why people were thinking he was going to do a big New Years' update on the book when he's spent the last few months already providing more substantive updates than he has for half a decade.

I'm just saying this because of how weird the callout was. I work with George's Argentinian publisher.

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56 minutes ago, CamiloRP said:

I'm just saying this because of how weird the callout was. I work with George's Argentinian publisher.

Ha! Sorry, I was unaware. I did merely point out that we have gotten "insider info" in the past which came from overseas publishers confidently expecting a complete text to begin translation within months and it was three years before the book came out and the publishers had just been coming up with dates to appease anxious managers and shareholders.

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34 minutes ago, Werthead said:

Ha! Sorry, I was unaware. I did merely point out that we have gotten "insider info" in the past which came from overseas publishers confidently expecting a complete text to begin translation within months and it was three years before the book came out and the publishers had just been coming up with dates to appease anxious managers and shareholders.

Sorry for what? I know that, it's a weird thing to buy into tbh. I haven't even talked to the guys responsible for George's work, but we do work in the same publishing house, tho I mostly handle comic strips and such.

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I liked the Quentin chapters but tbh, did we really need it all? It would have been strange to just open with the chapter where he meets Danaerys and then have the dragon tamer chapter follow while not knowing much of his travels but lots of books do this. Considering that Tyrion gives us the 'travel on boat between Westeros and Essos and is around sellswords storyline' did it need to be shown? Quentin talking about his journey to Mereen would have been enough.

It really does feel like GRRM just wanted to show everything that is going on in the world and I feel it wasn't needed if he could have focused on other plots that should have been advanced, e.g. the battle of fire.

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2 hours ago, Ghostlydragon said:

I liked the Quentin chapters but tbh, did we really need it all? It would have been strange to just open with the chapter where he meets Danaerys and then have the dragon tamer chapter follow while not knowing much of his travels but lots of books do this. Considering that Tyrion gives us the 'travel on boat between Westeros and Essos and is around sellswords storyline' did it need to be shown? Quentin talking about his journey to Mereen would have been enough.

It really does feel like GRRM just wanted to show everything that is going on in the world and I feel it wasn't needed if he could have focused on other plots that should have been advanced, e.g. the battle of fire.

To be honest, the events from the Dragon Tamer chapter, could have been told from Ser Barristan's POV. We didn't need be in Quentin's head, as he was being burned alive.

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2 hours ago, Ghostlydragon said:

I liked the Quentin chapters but tbh, did we really need it all? It would have been strange to just open with the chapter where he meets Danaerys and then have the dragon tamer chapter follow while not knowing much of his travels but lots of books do this. Considering that Tyrion gives us the 'travel on boat between Westeros and Essos and is around sellswords storyline' did it need to be shown? Quentin talking about his journey to Mereen would have been enough.

It really does feel like GRRM just wanted to show everything that is going on in the world and I feel it wasn't needed if he could have focused on other plots that should have been advanced, e.g. the battle of fire.

I think his chapters are good.  They give us the fall of Astapor, an insight into the thinking of the Tattered Prince and his colleagues, an insight into the thinking of the slavers and the revelation of underground slavery in Meereen, and finally, the disastrous attempt to steal a dragon, so blackly funny and so sad at the same time.

Why I like them above all, I think, is that Quentyn is me, at the age of 18.  Pretty hapless and naive, and chronically shy around women.

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4 hours ago, sifth said:

To be honest, the events from the Dragon Tamer chapter, could have been told from Ser Barristan's POV. We didn't need be in Quentin's head, as he was being burned alive.

Barristan wasn't there. The chapter we got gives us mutliple leads about the coup Skahaz is planning (referring to the descrepancies the Brazen Beasts suddenly show) and we learn that Gerris and archibald are up to something, which they don't communicate to Barristan in the Queen's Hand chapter.

George R. R. Martin deciding to put in four Quentyn chapters in an already large story makes me think Quentyn still has a role to play in the future. 
I personally think the Quentyn story is an allegory about the young men sent off to die in Vietnam. Our author was an activist in the sixties and avoided the Vietnam draft by being a ''conscientious objector''.

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1 hour ago, Jekse said:

Barristan wasn't there. The chapter we got gives us mutliple leads about the coup Skahaz is planning (referring to the descrepancies the Brazen Beasts suddenly show) and we learn that Gerris and archibald are up to something, which they don't communicate to Barristan in the Queen's Hand chapter.

George R. R. Martin deciding to put in four Quentyn chapters in an already large story makes me think Quentyn still has a role to play in the future. 
I personally think the Quentyn story is an allegory about the young men sent off to die in Vietnam. Our author was an activist in the sixties and avoided the Vietnam draft by being a ''conscientious objector''.

Sorry, but his story is a waste of time as of now, IMO

Maybe the next book will prove otherwise, but until then I stand by what I said above. Just have Ser Barry see the aftermath and maybe even the dragons escape and the same info would have been given to us and in a more organic way.

 

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1 hour ago, sifth said:

Sorry, but his story is a waste of time as of now, IMO

Maybe the next book will prove otherwise, but until then I stand by what I said above. Just have Ser Barry see the aftermath and maybe even the dragons escape and the same info would have been given to us and in a more organic way.

 

I agree, the Quentyn chapters up to this point are irrelevant. He could have been non POV and attempted to steal a dragon and we will still get the same result. So either it’s bad writing or there’s something more.

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58 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

How much of the book do you think George had already written before he isolated himself in his cabin (aka The Lonely Mountain) some time in 2018 or 2019? And how much of the book do you think he has written since, given the pandemic?

I think he had about 80% done. But is unhappy with how it turned out and now he's constantly re-writing

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1 hour ago, Jekse said:

I think he had about 80% done. But is unhappy with how it turned out and now he's constantly re-writing

Well we know that he finished at least 6 chapters during the pandemic, which amounts to already something like 10% of the book or a little less than that in terms of chapters. It all depends on the final word and chapter count of the book of course. But yeah the problem has always been the rewrites, which are still mostly necessary imo. 

I would personally say that he had between 60 and 70% of the book before the pandemic. I'd love to be wrong the right way though.

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Oh and he said in january 2016 that he had "dozens of chapters completed". Which translates to at least two dozen = 24 chapters. So this amounts to another 30% of the book (assuming it's ADWD-sized in terms of chapters (73)) by january 2016. At the very least it's safe to assume he had that much written before he went into his cabin in the mountains. 

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3 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Oh and he said in january 2016 that he had "dozens of chapters completed". Which translates to at least two dozen = 24 chapters. So this amounts to another 30% of the book (assuming it's ADWD-sized in terms of chapters (73)) by january 2016. At the very least it's safe to assume he had that much written before he went into his cabin in the mountains. 

I do actually believe TWOW will be around twice the size of ADWD. Assuming this, he might still be done with 80-90% of it. He does some rewriting, but if he'd be at the big rewriting and correcting part,I think we would've know that. 

He's either lying or this book will be massive, and I mean MASSIVE.

Also, he's been doing F&B, Dunk&Egg and GoT too since ADWD. I don't blame him, I just wanna get the book already.

 

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