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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely


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3 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I do actually believe TWOW will be around twice the size of ADWD. Assuming this, he might still be done with 80-90% of it. He does some rewriting, but if he'd be at the big rewriting and correcting part,I think we would've know that. 

He's either lying or this book will be massive, and I mean MASSIVE.

Also, he's been doing F&B, Dunk&Egg and GoT too since ADWD. I don't blame him, I just wanna get the book already.

 

Yeah I'm hoping that the book will be like 100+ chapters released in two volumes simultaneously, but unfortunately, that doesn't seem to be what he seems to be planning for TWOW. 

As for the big rewriting part, it seems that he has been "visiting" no less that 8 (potentially 9 if you count Jaime in there, and 10 if you take Aeron as well) POVs in 4-5 months, including some POVs who have little chance of surviving their first few chapters, namely Ser Barristan and Victarion. By the way, if they die early on, then their chapters are part of the Battle of Fire chapters, which was initially meant to be part of ADWD. Meaning that they were probably in a near-finished form by the time ADWD was published. The fact that George seems to be rewriting/revising these chapters now, combined with the fact that he's visiting other POVs who have nothing to do with Slaver's Bay and Daenerys's current story in general prompts me to say that he must probably be on a big round of editing/correcting minor stuff for these POVs. But he's still finishing other chapters, so he must have other storylines which are not yet finished (Arianne/Jon Connington? Sansa/Bran? ). Really all these littles bits of information he gives us have to end up resulting in something. I'd still be surprised if we don't get at least a publication date before 2022.

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6 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I do actually believe TWOW will be around twice the size of ADWD. Assuming this, he might still be done with 80-90% of it. He does some rewriting, but if he'd be at the big rewriting and correcting part,I think we would've know that. 

He's either lying or this book will be massive, and I mean MASSIVE.

Also, he's been doing F&B, Dunk&Egg and GoT too since ADWD. I don't blame him, I just wanna get the book already.

I think twice the size of ADWD is probably on the extreme of things. He knows that TWoW can be a fair bit bigger than ASoS and ADWD, he's a big enough deal now that he publishers can find ways of publishing a book that large, but there's still limits on that and twice the size is way over that. Although we know his publishers wanted to split the book AFFC/ADWD style a couple of years ago, which certainly would support the idea that the book is pretty big already, but his non-linear writing style means that splitting the books isn't always viable.

One slight correction: he published the latest  Dunk & Egg story, The Mystery Knight, in 2010 (a year before ADWD came out) and then did a fair bit of work on the next book, The She-Wolves (working title). For whatever reason he abandoned the story when it was partially or mostly done, briefly worked on it in 2013 (for Dangerous Women) and seems to have decided that the story would work better as the fifth story rather than the fourth, with The Village Hero (speculated to cover the Pennytree storyline) coming first. To our knowledge, he hasn't penned a single word of The Village Hero. So his D&E work post-ADWD appears to be very limited, with the possible good news that when he does write The Village Hero, we might get two D&E stories in relatively quick succession.

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I can only repeat myself here, guys. Don't get pumped too much on the basis of George's writing style.

Yes, he doesn't write chronologically, but this is a big story, and while he would rush ahead if he has good day or a couple of good days, there is little potential for this kind of thing as the stories start to converge again.

Whenever there are a couple of POVs together he will not write chapter after chapter from POV X. He will wonder constantly which POV to use, slowing things down as he tries various different approaches.

The only POVs he could reasonably rush would be Dany (while she is alone with the Dothraki), Arya, Sansa, Bran (while they do not interact with other POVs/important plots), Davos and Samwell to a point, and perhaps also Areo.

But in general terms it is far too optimistic - unrealistic even - to assume George would allow himself to get carried away by a particular confluence of plots and POVs to the point to race ahead into ADoS while he is still stuck in the first half of the TWoW with other characters.

We do know he wrote a lot of ASoS material back while still writing ACoK (and a lot of ACoK material while still writing AGoT) but that was because he originally thought he was writing fewer novels in total and it turned out, in the end, that the books had to split.

But now the plan basically is to get to the point of having enough chapters for publication and then publish those ... of course, those have to be of the right POVs and all. And the idea that he would continue to focus on material that he knew wouldn't be part of TWoW, anyway, postponing to write crucial chapters for TWoW instead is not very likely.

The most realistic view of things is that when TWoW is finished we will learn that a couple of chapters - at the most, perhaps, 5-10 - will be shuffled to the next book for this or that editorial reason.

The book is not going to be blown up out of proportion. And there is no need to assume or hope for this because if ADoS is not going to finish the story then we will get another book after that one ... or another one with a different title between TWoW and ADoS.

But I certainly consider it possible that TWoW is going to be somewhat bigger than ADwD, especially if we were to get an ADwD-like situation with a couple of big battles/conflicts getting resolved at the end of the book. They will make space for that, then even if it means the book will have 1,200 or 1,300 pages. But we won't get 1,500 or 2,000 pages in total.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Yes, he doesn't write chronologically, but this is a big story, and while he would rush ahead if he has good day or a couple of good days, there is little potential for this kind of thing as the stories start to converge again.

Yes, it goes well for Arya and Daenerys unless they do not get back to Westeros. Or for the entire Oldtown plot. But once Arianne reaches YG, and YG reaches King's Landing, etc.. But, for example, if something big happens in KL, and the word can reach (for example) Oldtown in a month, then the Oldtown plot can't be written further away in the future than one month compared to KL plot. If he does that, he needs to get back his chapters for correction. And he does this, and here the problem lies.

 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But now the plan basically is to get to the point of having enough chapters for publication and then publish those ...

Not really. He does want to finish the story under two titles: TWOW and ADOS. On how many volumes TWOW will come out, I don't know. But for me his goal seems to be reaching the halfpoint of the story with everything, or even more, so ADOS could be normal-sized.

 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But I certainly consider it possible that TWoW is going to be somewhat bigger than ADwD, especially if we were to get an ADwD-like situation with a couple of big battles/conflicts getting resolved at the end of the book. They will make space for that, then even if it means the book will have 1,200 or 1,300 pages. But we won't get 1,500 or 2,000 pages in total.

The book will likely be divided into 2 volumes. If not 80, then at least 60 for each is needed to have, if he does want to finish the story under 2 titles, as he stated.

 

But: According to what he's telling us, he should be done at this point. Why isn't he? He is either lying or TWOW will be as big as we can not imagine. I think a little bit both.

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I have always thought that the convergence of the POV characters leads to a more difficult writing process for George R. R. Martin. 

We already know that he has rewritten Quentyn's marriage proposal several times, depending on whether he arrived on time or too late (just after the wedding or days later). George likes to experiment with the possibilities. But everything also has an impact on the rest of the story. The smallest change causes the butterfly effect.

George also tries to find out which POV perspective fits each chapter, depending on the events. 

For example: it is assumed that at an earlier stage of the original FeastDance, Tyrion's storyline ended with his kidnapping by Jorah. It would not surprise me if the original intention was for Tyrion to be present at the recruitment of the Golden Company (so the events from "The Lost Lord" would have been viewed from his point of view), then the kidnapping.

But making Jon Connington POV turned out to be a much better choice, because he is emotionally much more connected to Aegon and also has more interests in putting Aegon VI on the throne.  Although Aegon's campaign was originally going almost completely off-page, the new POV will give us insight into how Aegon's campaign is going. That turned out to be a good choice.

This is an example of how the change of POV has a major impact on the rest of the storyline. Ditto for Quentyn. Without his POV, we wouldn't even know why he was trying to tame that dragon. We would have no insight that this was an extremely desperate act, for fear of disappointing his father. We would not be emotionally connected to him. Now we know the truth after the stories of "Daenerys fed Quentyn to the dragons" will spread. Quentyn's POV also gives the reader insight into the real consequences of Doran's "master plan".

Well, enough examples.  We will now talk about The Winds of Winter. In Meereen there will be four POVs: Daenerys, Barristan, Tyrion and Victarion. Knowing George R. R. Martin, he will re-visit every event that will take place there, based on the POV perspective of each of the four characters. In short, he will already have at least four variants of the same chapter, each variant a different POV perspective. The one that is most interesting will end up in the final book. Do you see how much material he writes that never ends up in the final book, and that therefore slows down the writing process?

Overview of all the characters that can converge during The Winds of Winter
North: Jon Snow, Melissandre, Davos, Asha, Theon (+Arya/Sansa/Bran?)
Riverlands: Jaime, Brienne
Oldtown: Samwell, Aeron (They both can describe Euron's campaign if necessary)
Meereen: Daenerys, Barristan, Victarion, Tyrion (exclusive possible landing in Westeros and meeting with other POVs there - Jon Snow?)
Crownlands: Cersei, Jon Connington, Arianne (+Jaime?)

The North turns out to be a difficult situation as well. Many characters converge, it is difficult to determine from which point of view event X or Y will be viewed there. And George R. R. Martin investigates this by writing different variants of chapter X or Y from the POV perspective of different characters and comparing the end results with each other. 

Worst-case scenario, if George cannot choose which POV perspective, we can still expect something similar to Jon II (ADWD) and Samwell I (AFFC) - the same event will be viewed from multiple perspectives. Or also: Bran III/Jon V (ASOS, Queenscrown) - this worked great!

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15 minutes ago, TheSamsa said:

He tells us that it will be a huge book in his NaB:
https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/06/23/writing-reading-writing/

 

So I guess it could, and maybe did already, hit the barrier of how big a book can be printed.

I also expect a book about the same size as A Feast of Crows and A Dance with Dragons together. I can't imagine that many POV characters will have fewer chapters in The Winds of Winter than in FeastDance combined.

My prediction:
More chapters than in FeastDance: Areo, Arianne, Arya, Barristan, Bran, Jon Connington, Melissandre, Sansa
About as many chapters as FeastDance: Aeron, Asha, Daenerys, Davos, Samwell, Victarion
Fewer chapters than FeastDance: Brienne, Cersei, Jaime, Jon Snow, Theon, Tyrion

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5 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Not really. He does want to finish the story under two titles: TWOW and ADOS. On how many volumes TWOW will come out, I don't know. But for me his goal seems to be reaching the halfpoint of the story with everything, or even more, so ADOS could be normal-sized.

Whatever he wants to do, he clearly has no clue how many chapters it will take him to get there. Else he would have gotten to the Red Wedding in AGoT as originally planned.

It is a misconception to assume each of the novels is supposed to be about a particular thing or reach a certain point. ADwD was supposed to be about Dany's conquest of Westeros, TWoW about (the beginning of) the fight against the Others.

And how far the story will go in the end in the book - even if George aims to get a couple of plots at a particular in his writing - will depend how large the book will be when all the chapters are finished. Certain chapters like 'The Forsaken' and 'Mercy' are pretty old, yet they still didn't make it into ADwD for conceptional reasons.

5 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

But: According to what he's telling us, he should be done at this point. Why isn't he? He is either lying or TWOW will be as big as we can not imagine. I think a little bit both.

The best guess is that he does have a lot of material but is still not finished. He most likely has to deal with a lot of Meereenese Knot-like scenarios - this time both with KL, and the Wall, and Winterfell, and the Riverlands in addition to Meereen - basically wherever a number of POVs are together or are going to come together and interact.

There is basically no chance that he is writing more than he has to if he was enough chapters for a book to publish.

Yes, if he had just three Dany chapters but needs seven then he would continue to write until he got there, so the book is even and he gets the crucial characters where they have to be, but he won't just write 14 Dany chapters if he just needs seven.

We should get more than the 1,500 manuscript pages for a book if he really had a run with a number of POVs, racing ahead the confines of the book for a couple of chapters. But that is a rather optimisitic view based on no concrete information and, more importantly, it would not result in enough material to double the size of TWoW.

Because, in the end, it is very difficult to imagine that as various plotlines converge he can race ahead with certain stories while completely ignoring others. That is no longer going to work in Essos and most definitely not with the intersection of a lot of plot threads in Westeros. We will have the Dornishmen and Aegon hook up, we will have them clash with Cersei in KL, we will see Euron interact with/attack other POVs, things in the Riverlands are going to explode, the Vale will eventually enter the fray in some fashion, etc.

Even Bran is going to see and react to/interact with people very far away through magical means. Davos' story could be completely isolated for a couple of chapters, I guess - if Bran doesn't take an interest in him - and Arya's as long as she remains with the Faceless Men. And while Dany is with the Dothraki she should also have an isolated story. I expect her to remain there for pretty much the entire book, so her chapters should be pretty easy.

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On 1/9/2021 at 6:29 AM, Ghostlydragon said:

It really does feel like GRRM just wanted to show everything that is going on in the world and I feel it wasn't needed if he could have focused on other plots that should have been advanced, e.g. the battle of fire.

I think GRRM is planning on making the Long Night a global event. That's why we've spent so much time in Volantis, Pentos, Qarth, Meereen, Braavos and the Dothraki Sea and why we keep hearing so much about the Summer Islands, Asshai and Yi Ti.

Maybe once the Wall falls and the Others sweep southwards into the Seven Kingdoms, wights will be raised and dispersed throughout Essos. Maybe freakish blizzards and wights sweep across Essos as the heroes are fighting on the frontlines in Westeros.

On 1/10/2021 at 7:49 AM, The Winged Griffin said:

Oh and he said in january 2016 that he had "dozens of chapters completed". Which translates to at least two dozen = 24 chapters. So this amounts to another 30% of the book (assuming it's ADWD-sized in terms of chapters (73)) by january 2016. At the very least it's safe to assume he had that much written before he went into his cabin in the mountains. 

Good.

The chapters that were combined were probably the chapters pertaining to the Battle of Meereen and Winterfell.

On 1/9/2021 at 3:45 PM, sifth said:

Maybe the next book will prove otherwise, but until then I stand by what I said above. Just have Ser Barry see the aftermath and maybe even the dragons escape and the same info would have been given to us and in a more organic way.

Having POV characters tell you about things that already happened offscreen and in the past that they had learned second- and third-hand is not organic. That was why we never got the 5 year gap and a combined Feast/Dragons

It's one thing for Quentyn to show up in a Daenerys chapter and tell her (along with the audience) about the story of his travels. It's another thing completely for Ser Barristan to tell the audience the story of how and why Quentyn tried to steal a dragon but failed when he himself wasn't there.

It's awkward. I would much prefer travelogues because the alternative seems to be either extensive use of flashbacks and monologues about past events OR the use of teleportation and jetpacks that the show indulged in.

On 1/9/2021 at 9:09 AM, sifth said:

To be honest, the events from the Dragon Tamer chapter, could have been told from Ser Barristan's POV. We didn't need be in Quentin's head, as he was being burned alive.

So, essentially, what you're saying is that cut out Quentyn's chapters and give them to Ser Barristan or Daenerys.

Ser Barristan's 4 chapters become 6 and the 10 to Daenerys' name becomes 11 or 12. At that point, you're not cutting out chapters, you're just moving them around.

We needed to know about what happened to Astapor. We needed to know what has really been happening underground in Meereen right under Dany's nose. And the dragons needed to be released before their growth was too stunted and/or before they were killed. We also needed to know how Daenerys will get all the manpower to conquer and then police Essos (i.e. the answer being all of Essos' the sellsword companies and probably the red priests)

Granted, the Tattered Prince storyline annoys me and I don't see the purpose of it. But I'm sure it is pretty important if only for the fact that it gives Dany and friends another more urgent reason to go back to Pentos. And I think we all know what awaits her in Pentos: the truth about Illyrio.

And for the record, Quentyn could have bought them all some time. Maybe the release of the dragons and the fact that they are now currently running amok caused the pro-slavery axis inside the city to delay their plans or make emergency adjustments

But say you cut out those 4 Quentyn chapters and squeeze more information into the existing Daenerys, Barristan and Tyrion (good luck as Tyrion and Daenerys are already overloaded)

Is 4 chapters going to make that much of a difference? The Battle of Meereen is not going to be fought and won/lost in 4 chapters...much less the Battle of Winterfell.

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39 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The best guess is that he does have a lot of material but is still not finished. He most likely has to deal with a lot of Meereenese Knot-like scenarios - this time both with KL, and the Wall, and Winterfell, and the Riverlands in addition to Meereen - basically wherever a number of POVs are together or are going to come together and interact.

There is basically no chance that he is writing more than he has to if he was enough chapters for a book to publish.

Yes, if he had just three Dany chapters but needs seven then he would continue to write until he got there, so the book is even and he gets the crucial characters where they have to be, but he won't just write 14 Dany chapters if he just needs seven.

We should get more than the 1,500 manuscript pages for a book if he really had a run with a number of POVs, racing ahead the confines of the book for a couple of chapters. But that is a rather optimisitic view based on no concrete information and, more importantly, it would not result in enough material to double the size of TWoW.

Because, in the end, it is very difficult to imagine that as various plotlines converge he can race ahead with certain stories while completely ignoring others. That is no longer going to work in Essos and most definitely not with the intersection of a lot of plot threads in Westeros. We will have the Dornishmen and Aegon hook up, we will have them clash with Cersei in KL, we will see Euron interact with/attack other POVs, things in the Riverlands are going to explode, the Vale will eventually enter the fray in some fashion, etc.

Even Bran is going to see and react to/interact with people very far away through magical means.

I think GRRM is dealing with another, much more difficult situation than the Meereenese Knot: Winterfell.

Especially since everything pertaining to Winterfell is also tied to the Wall. Choosing the course to take in Winterfell and executing it become even more difficult if Brienne's orSansa's POV gets involved.

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1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

Ser Barristan's 4 chapters become 6 and the 10 to Daenerys' name becomes 11 or 12. At that point, you're not cutting out chapters, you're just moving them around.

No, we didn't need entire chapters for us to learn the stuff Quentyn knows, because nearly all of it is told to us in other chapters. Just add a few more paragraphs or pages to the Dany and Ser. Barristan chapters, to cover a few things on what Quentyn was up to and how he died and the entire characters arc could have been removed entirely.

We didn't need to see Astapor fall..................a second time, just have Dany learn that it happened. GRRM did exactly this in the first 3 books, when we constantly learn second hand of most of Jamie, Tywin, Balon and Robb's victories. There was no need to waste time in a characters head for them, just like there wasn't a need to waste are time in Quentyn's head, just to watch him fall on his own sword. Even the walking camera Areo Hotah seems to have more relevance in the story, than Quentyn if you ask me.

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2 minutes ago, sifth said:

GRRM did exactly this in the first 3 books, when we constantly learn second hand of most of Jamie, Tywin, Balon and Robb's victories.

GRRM regrets not making Robb a POV. He has even entertained the idea of writing a Robb POV for the invasion of the Westerlands and meeting the Westerlings...which happened in Clash.

But I suppose we'll just have to wait and see. I just feel that the inclusion of Quentyn makes for a far more richer story. He's like the Ned Stark for the coming Daenerys vs. Arianne feud. Ned Stark is to the War of the Five Kings like Quentyn is to the Second Dance of the Dragons with both fueling and feeding the Second Long Night.

I also do find Arianne and Quentyn hunger for adventure and glory and how they juxtapose each other to be darkly hilarious.

Arianne is thinking "Are you looking at Nymeria's star, Quentyn? Nymeria burned as brightly as any man and so shall I." in her own POV and then Quentyn is set on fire in his POV...after noticing Nymeria's Star in the same chapter.

 

But if you were so insistent on cutting out the Quentyn chapters, the best solution would've been to modify Tyrion's story. Tyrion is sold into slavery earlier so that he can be our eyes and ears into the perspective of the slavemasters, the schemes of the sellsword companies across western Essos and the underground slave trade in Meereen.

Quentyn could've been kept in a more useful role by making him be more attuned with the "Dorne wants to dance with dragons" plot. He'd be present and accounted for in Dorne during the "Princess in the Tower" chapter (and maybe even "The Watcher" chapter too) only for him to meet Team Aegon in Volantis, Team Daenerys in Meereen and then die by dragonflame at the end of the book. I suppose he could meet the Tattered Prince somewhere along the way too.

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11 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

GRRM regrets not making Robb a POV. He has even entertained the idea of writing a Robb POV for the invasion of the Westerlands and meeting the Westerlings...which happened in Clash.

 

To be honest, I don't think any Robb POV's were needed. Not knowing what Robb was up to in the second book, made for a more interesting story, especially when we find out at the start of the third book and learn all sorts of things.

Quentyn is no Ned Stark. Don't get me wrong, his death will cost Dany Dorne, but that's all it will do. The Martell's will join Aegon and his rebellion, but aside from one or two very minor POV characters, Quentyn really doesn't have any major connection to anyone back home. Ned's death had an effect on nearly every POV character in the first book, Quentyn will be lucky if he gets one POV morning him. Ned had connections and friends all over westeros, while most of Quentyn's friends are either with him when he died or died on the ride over. If you want to compare him to Ned, than he's the diet coke version of Ned, maybe even the diet caffeine free version of him, lol

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12 minutes ago, Mithras said:

The choice was between Cat and Robb. If Robb was made a POV, Cat had to go. I think that would be the better bargain.

If that was the choice, then GRRM made the better decision to choose Cat. It works on so many more levels.

51 minutes ago, sifth said:

Quentyn is no Ned Stark. Don't get me wrong, his death will cost Dany Dorne, but that's all it will do. The Martell's will join Aegon and his rebellion, but aside from one or two very minor POV characters, Quentyn really doesn't have any major connection to anyone back home. Ned's death had an effect on nearly every POV character in the first book, Quentyn will be lucky if he gets one POV morning him. Ned had connections and friends all over westeros, while most of Quentyn's friends are either with him when he died or died on the ride over. If you want to compare him to Ned, than he's the diet coke version of Ned, maybe even the diet caffeine free version of him, lol

Quentyn's death will affect all of Westeros south of the Neck. It might even affect northern Westeros and Essos.

If Quentyn's death robs Daenerys of Dorne and Dorne (by way of Quentyn's sister, Arianne) allies with Aegon, then the natural conclusion is that Dorne and every other region of Westeros allied with Aegon will be fighting to avenge Prince Quentyn and to save King Aegon from Daenerys' wrath.

Any person or situation that causes half of a continent to mobilize or explode is major.

With the deaths of Viserys, Drogo, Rhaego and soon Quentyn and Hizdahr attributed to Daenerys, she will have the unfortunate rep of being a maneating, kinslaying whore. A rep that will only be confirmed with her alliance with the likes of Tyrion, Victarion and Moqorro. Much like King Midas, it will be said that everything Queen Daenerys touches, turns to ashes.

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30 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Quentyn's death will affect all of Westeros south of the Neck. It might even affect northern Westeros and Essos.

If Quentyn's death robs Daenerys of Dorne and Dorne (by way of Quentyn's sister, Arianne) allies with Aegon, then the natural conclusion is that Dorne and every other region of Westeros allied with Aegon will be fighting to avenge Prince Quentyn and to save King Aegon from Daenerys' wrath.

Any person or situation that causes half of a continent to mobilize or explode is major.

With the deaths of Viserys, Drogo, Rhaego and soon Quentyn and Hizdahr attributed to Daenerys, she will have the unfortunate rep of being a maneating, kinslaying whore. A rep that will only be confirmed with her alliance with the likes of Tyrion, Victarion and Moqorro. Much like King Midas, it will be said that everything Queen Daenerys touches, turns to ashes.

Non of which require him to be a POV character. Robert wasn't a POV character and his death effected the plot in major ways. Same with Renly, Balon, Tywin and so on.

I get the impression Dorne is going to be on the verge of joining Aegon after he takes Storms End and then they learn about Quentyn's death shortly after that, which seals the deal.

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2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I think GRRM is dealing with another, much more difficult situation than the Meereenese Knot: Winterfell.

Especially since everything pertaining to Winterfell is also tied to the Wall. Choosing the course to take in Winterfell and executing it become even more difficult if Brienne's orSansa's POV gets involved.

There is no indication that Winterfell would be a big problem. Stannis is not going to stay there because of the Wall situation, and pretty much nothing indicates that a ruined castle is going to be a big action place in the foreseeable, i.e. while the Wall is still standing. And if Stannis were to lose then all bets are off, anyway. Then the Northmen will fall in line behind the Boltons and George should better give Ramsay or Roose POV status, or else he won't be able to continue his story.

If the Vale were to intervene in the North then this is going to take quite some time now, considering the (rather ridiculous) plan Littlefinger laid out in AFfC involves Sansa marrying Harrold Hardyng and Lord Robert Arryn dying before they make their move. Even if they were to speed things up this is not going to happen early on in TWoW. And there is pretty much no chance that they will even try this if they have news that Stannis has won. And in light of the Aegon surprise we can be rather confident that if the Vale deploys troops they will throw them at the Lannisters/Tyrells and in Aegon's name ... both because Aegon's people will try to draw them to their side (and promise them anything for their help) and because Sansa won't let this situation slide to hurt and destroy Cersei. Her road to Winterfell - if she wants the North - will go through KL. Not to mention that the Vale men can easily enough fight in Crownlands winter weather whereas they must be horrified at the prospect to fight in Northern winter weather. That would be suicide for them.

KL, Aegon's gang in the Stormlands, the Ironborn, and the Riverlands are the places/plots that will heavily intersect. And there chances are very high that George has no mapped out plan about the sequence of events, meaning he will take a trial-and-error like he did with the Meereenese Knot. And that's going to take time even if he has only good days.

And the bigger knot is going to be how far the Westerosi plotlines can advance in relation to the point in time when Dany's people finally land there. This will be a very big trial-and-error thingy, although I guess this is going to take place only in ADoS. Daenerys is not likely to get much farther than Vaes Dothrak in TWoW.

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32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that Winterfell would be a big problem. Stannis is not going to stay there because of the Wall situation, and pretty much nothing indicates that a ruined castle is going to be a big action place in the foreseeable, i.e. while the Wall is still standing. And if Stannis were to lose then all bets are off, anyway. Then the Northmen will fall in line behind the Boltons and George should better give Ramsay or Roose POV status, or else he won't be able to continue his story.

If the Vale were to intervene in the North then this is going to take quite some time now, considering the (rather ridiculous) plan Littlefinger laid out in AFfC involves Sansa marrying Harrold Hardyng and Lord Robert Arryn dying before they make their move. Even if they were to speed things up this is not going to happen early on in TWoW. And there is pretty much no chance that they will even try this if they have news that Stannis has won. And in light of the Aegon surprise we can be rather confident that if the Vale deploys troops they will throw them at the Lannisters/Tyrells and in Aegon's name ... both because Aegon's people will try to draw them to their side (and promise them anything for their help) and because Sansa won't let this situation slide to hurt and destroy Cersei. Her road to Winterfell - if she wants the North - will go through KL. Not to mention that the Vale men can easily enough fight in Crownlands winter weather whereas they must be horrified at the prospect to fight in Northern winter weather. That would be suicide for them.

KL, Aegon's gang in the Stormlands, the Ironborn, and the Riverlands are the places/plots that will heavily intersect. And there chances are very high that George has no mapped out plan about the sequence of events, meaning he will take a trial-and-error like he did with the Meereenese Knot. And that's going to take time even if he has only good days.

And the bigger knot is going to be how far the Westerosi plotlines can advance in relation to the point in time when Dany's people finally land there. This will be a very big trial-and-error thingy, although I guess this is going to take place only in ADoS. Daenerys is not likely to get much farther than Vaes Dothrak in TWoW.

The reason why I said that is because:

  • I have no idea how long the Battle of Winterfell is supposed to be. It seems like it's going to take at least 6 chapters for it to come to some sort of conclusion. For reference, the Battle of Blackwater was told in 6 chapters with the aftermath told in 2 chapters and the Battle of Winterfell is a lot more complex than the Battle of Blackwater.
  • The plots of Winterfell and the Wall are intertwined at this point. That means that the POVs of Melisandre, Theon, Asha, Davos, maybe Jon and maybe Bran and maybe even Sansa are involved. So even if Stannis decides to rush back to the Wall, he's still not going to completely remove himself from the affairs of Winterfell.

Stannis is not going to remove himself, he's going to be removed. And the person that I think will do it is Sansa. Why else does he continue to be so dismissive of "Lady Lannister"

So, while I agree with you that the Vale is not going to intervene in the North until the end of The Winds of Winter, I don't think that the route to Winterfell involves a trip to King's Landing. I don't even think that it involves a trip into the Riverlands. If they time it right, they can just sail out of Gulltown and into White Harbor and then march northwards along the White Knife.

Littlefinger's predicted war of the three queens is not factoring in the Aegon surprise. I don't think Littlefinger will want to get involved with Aegon because it is Varys' work. I realize that the two were made out to be mortal enemies in the mummer's show (only for it, and many other things, to go absolutely nowhere) but the two have no reason to work together. They neither like or trust each other.

Littlefinger wants it all for himself but Varys (if he is to be believed) wants the realm to be united under Targaryen rule. Their goals square each other and Varys is no fool. There is no way in the seven hells that he will ever think Littlefinger as a constructive force in Aegon's reign.

Ser Waymar Royce seemed to do fine miles and miles north of the Wall. I don't see why the Valemen would be completely opposed to going north to Winterfell. They don't believe in the Long Night anyways so there's no reason why they would say no. They've been itching for war anyways.

I don't think what Lady Stoneheart is doing in the Riverlands will intersect with the Aegon Surprise as you call it. I don't think she cares about who sits the Iron Throne so long as Robb's kingdom is reestablished with a Queen Arya. Any clash between Lady Stoneheart and the Targaryen/Martell regime is going to be delayed and forgotten come the arrival of Daenerys Targaryen, the revelation that the Stark boys escaped and the fall of the Wall.

That being said, I do think Harrenhal and Darry and those other southerly Riverlands places will become wrapped up with Aegon. But I think the northern Riverlands and the Vale will become closely tied with Winterfell by way of Sansa, Rickon and Arya.

You're also not thinking about Brienne. She is alive. What if Lady Stoneheart sets her free and tasks her with a mission that sees her at the Twins or in the North.

 

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4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

The reason why I said that is because:

  • I have no idea how long the Battle of Winterfell is supposed to be. It seems like it's going to take at least 6 chapters for it to come to some sort of conclusion. For reference, the Battle of Blackwater was told in 6 chapters with the aftermath told in 2 chapters and the Battle of Winterfell is a lot more complex than the Battle of Blackwater.
  • The plots of Winterfell and the Wall are intertwined at this point. That means that the POVs of Melisandre, Theon, Asha, Davos, maybe Jon and maybe Bran and maybe even Sansa are involved. So even if Stannis decides to rush back to the Wall, he's still not going to completely remove himself from the affairs of Winterfell.

Yes, that's right, but that wouldn't be a big issue boggling down TWoW since George should have thought about how do that battle over ten years ago when he was wrapping up ADwD. It is going to be a complex plot, but not something that's going to mess with the writing process to the same degree as even more complex plots.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Stannis is not going to remove himself, he's going to be removed. And the person that I think will do it is Sansa. Why else does he continue to be so dismissive of "Lady Lannister"

Sansa cannot remove Stannis. He is a king, and he would be perfectly fine if she became Lady of Winterfell at his terms. These two are not likely going to become enemies. And if Stannis - or anybody else in the North - ever gets his hands on Rickon or Robb's will then Sansa will melt like snowflake. They are not going to want a woman in charge, especially not one who hasn't yet come of age (and won't within in the confines of the series) if they have two males (at least) to pick - Rickon Stark and Jon Snow.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

So, while I agree with you that the Vale is not going to intervene in the North until the end of The Winds of Winter, I don't think that the route to Winterfell involves a trip to King's Landing. I don't even think that it involves a trip into the Riverlands. If they time it right, they can just sail out of Gulltown and into White Harbor and then march northwards along the White Knife.

They would have some ships at Gulltown, to be sure, but we don't know how many men they can transport with those ships. Again, go back to the plan. Sansa's first marriage has to go away, she has to marry Harry, Robert Arryn has to die ... and Cersei (and her children) have to be gone before this plan is going to be implemented. It is something for next spring, something that is supposed to take place after this war of the three queens (which would include Daenerys).

You do recall what happened to Stannis' cavalry in those autumn snows, right? The horses all died. Going north in the middle of winter with the chivalry of the Vale would be a huge blunder. And there is no narrative plot incentive to rush that. Sansa is perfectly safe in the Vale where she is right now, and nobody can attack her there.

It is far smarter - assuming she wants Winterfell for herself - to watch people up there kill each other die of cold and starvation and then - when the Boltons and Freys and Stannis have ruined each other - to come in and clean up the mess when spring is already knocking at the door.

And then look at the other side of the coin. There is a tourney at the Gates right now. All young men eager to fight and prove their valor in battle. The Lannisters are hated ... and it will be then that the news about Aegon reach the Vale. What is Sansa going to do then? And all those young men who are already pissed they couldn't fight in the last war? Winterfell is hundreds of leagues away ... and the North isn't a price anyone in the Vale would care much about. But KL is very close and it is a very short distance between Gulltown and Crackclaw Point.

If they support Aegon and make him king they will get everything from him while also avenging Jon Arryn and Sansa's family. And when that's done taking the North for Sansa will likely be less than a formality. Whereas they would have to fear that the Iron Throne comes for them eventually if they just take Winterfell by force.

Queen Cersei and the Tyrells (who framed her for Joff's murder) are Sansa's mortal enemies. For her to live and thrive out in the open as herself the entire Baratheon-Lannister-Tyrell establishment has to go. Because regardless whether Sansa gets back Winterfell - while Tommen and Myrcella are still around honor demands that they and their administations avenge King Joffrey. They won't be able to let this go regardless of their personal feelings ... and especially not with the Tyrells still around who know who is really responsible.

With the North in shambles and only the Vale on her side Sansa could not hope to prevail. She would end up like Robb if she made a premature bid. Not today or tomorrow ... but the day after tomorrow.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Littlefinger's predicted war of the three queens is not factoring in the Aegon surprise. I don't think Littlefinger will want to get involved with Aegon because it is Varys' work. I realize that the two were made out to be mortal enemies in the mummer's show (only for it, and many other things, to go absolutely nowhere) but the two have no reason to work together. They neither like or trust each other.

But Littlefinger has no clue who is behind Aegon. He will see this as a ploy of the Golden Company and Jon Connington and he will assume he can use this new pretender - who will be dependent on support from the Westerosi lords or inevitably fail - to his own advantage. Right now he thinks about marrying Sansa to Harry ... but once Aegon is there this idea is likely going to fly out the window and be replaced by the idea to marry Sansa to Aegon so they can take over and control the Iron Throne itself.

And the role Sansa is basically groomed for by events and the author since the begining is that of a queen consort, basically. She is never going to be a woman general or somebody like that - instead, she will control things by controlling the men around her. And the place for her to do that will be at KL - or in the south in general - not at broken and ruined Winterfell.

Whether they can make her Aegon's queen is difficult to say at this point. But they definitely can try. And they could even force Aegon into following the Conqueror's example to take two wives (with Arianne being the other one) because he won't be able to refuse them if they say Sansa's hand is going to be the price he has to pay for ten or twenty thousand Vale men. He would need them to gain the throne and/or remain in power.

And, of course, Littlefinger would be in for a massive surprise once he realizes that Varys is the guy behind Aegon. But he doesn't know that at this point. In fact, chances are pretty good that throwing Sansa at Aegon will be the beginning of Littlefinger's end because it will allow Sansa to emancipate herself from Littlefinger. Something she cannot do in the Vale.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Ser Waymar Royce seemed to do fine miles and miles north of the Wall. I don't see why the Valemen would be completely opposed to going north to Winterfell. They don't believe in the Long Night anyways so there's no reason why they would say no. They've been itching for war anyways.

War in winter is pretty much a no-go for southerners in the North. Especially since they would have to march long leagues to even get to Winterfell, much less pursue and defeat the enemy Northmen on their own soil.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think what Lady Stoneheart is doing in the Riverlands will intersect with the Aegon Surprise as you call it. I don't think she cares about who sits the Iron Throne so long as Robb's kingdom is reestablished with a Queen Arya. Any clash between Lady Stoneheart and the Targaryen/Martell regime is going to be delayed and forgotten come the arrival of Daenerys Targaryen, the revelation that the Stark boys escaped and the fall of the Wall.

Catelyn wasn't into the whole 'King Robb' thing if you recall ... and her royal son then decided to cut her out of his government, basically. If Lady Stoneheart still cares about mundane politics - and not just to bathe in Frey and Lannister blood, which is actually more likely - then she might strive to set herself up as the new immortal ruler of whatever she wants to claim (the Riverlands, say, because her followers are there). She already has Robb's crown. But she could also aspire to cleanse Riverrun of Genna and Emmon to restore Edmure to his rightful seat. The North doesn't seem to be on her mind since she made no effort in the last two books to influence events there.

She also seems not all that interested in finding her surviving daughters.

But the reason the Riverlands are important is that quite a few Targaryen loyalists are there right now ... and they will drawn other Riverlanders to Aegon's cause. And of course there is a good chance that the anti-Frey/Lannister coalition is going to want to team up with Aegon if they do not only want to free the Riverlands but carry the war to the Westerlands to burn Lannisport and crack open the Rock and eradicate the Lannisters the same way they will want to eradicate the Freys.

These people are tacking off the gloves now. There won't be any mercy now and no truces. Especially not with the zombie woman who lives to kill now.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

That being said, I do think Harrenhal and Darry and those other southerly Riverlands places will become wrapped up with Aegon. But I think the northern Riverlands and the Vale will become closely tied with Winterfell by way of Sansa, Rickon and Arya.

Arya first has to go anywhere, and I don't think she will go back to the Riverlands. She wanted to join the Faceless Men and she will remain with them until she has a reason to leave them ... which should only happen when she gets a real assignment she doesn't want to do. And the very logic of the way the Faceless Men operate (they don't have their operatives kill people they know) indicates they would not send her in a familiar environment or kill a person she might know.

4 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

You're also not thinking about Brienne. She is alive. What if Lady Stoneheart sets her free and tasks her with a mission that sees her at the Twins or in the North.

Brienne should hook up with Jaime now. And whatever they do is not likely to get them north. Brienne was looking for Sansa and Arya, so if she were to continue this she would go to the Vale as she intended.

But if I had to guess then she will stick with Jaime ... who is most likely going to be forced to buy his miserable life by promising to destroy Genna and Emmon and/or his children back at KL. The Lannisters took Robb from Catelyn (and, as she believes, also, in a sense, Sansa, Arya, and the younger boys) so the way to get even would be to see Jaime denounce Tommen and Myrcella as bastards born of incest and adultery.

And it is the fact that Jaime basically already made the choice to tell Tommen/Myrcella the truth - to the point that even the Martells would learn this truth - that makes a scenario believable where this can happen. Because the only way Jaime has to survive right now is if he actually believable atones for what he and his family did to Catelyn. It cannot go with her demanding something from him because she would never believe he would do something she forces him to do.

Overall, there is little chance for or point in conflict in the North once the Boltons are dealt with. Winter has begun, and the Northmen have been bled almost dry already. What conflict we have will revolve around who is in charge, how to carry the conflict to the Others eventually, and how to deal with evil wildlings like the Weeper - who most likely is going to make another attempt at the Shadow Tower, successful this time, to then invade the North with thousands of followers.

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On 1/11/2021 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

Sansa cannot remove Stannis. He is a king, and he would be perfectly fine if she became Lady of Winterfell at his terms.

No, Stannis would not be fine with her becoming Lady of Winterfell. He derisively calls her "Lady Lannister" multiple times for a reason.

And yes, with the support of the lords of the North and the Vale, Sansa can remove Stannis regardless of his kinghood. So could Jon. They both would need good cause to do so but yeah. It could happen.

Stannis did hate Robb Stark and he was very envious of Ned Stark. Regardless if you think Melisandre's sorcery with the leeches worked, Stannis willfully took action to kill Robb Stark. And let's not forget that Stannis ignored Ned Stark's calls to come to King's Landing. If Stannis had gone back to King's Landing like he was supposed to or had even shared what he knew, Ned Stark and the rest of his family would've been in a much better position.

On 1/11/2021 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

But Littlefinger has no clue who is behind Aegon. He will see this as a ploy of the Golden Company and Jon Connington and he will assume he can use this new pretender - who will be dependent on support from the Westerosi lords or inevitably fail - to his own advantage. Right now he thinks about marrying Sansa to Harry ... but once Aegon is there this idea is likely going to fly out the window and be replaced by the idea to marry Sansa to Aegon so they can take over and control the Iron Throne itself.

And the role Sansa is basically groomed for by events and the author since the begining is that of a queen consort, basically. She is never going to be a woman general or somebody like that - instead, she will control things by controlling the men around her. And the place for her to do that will be at KL - or in the south in general - not at broken and ruined Winterfell.

Whether they can make her Aegon's queen is difficult to say at this point. But they definitely can try. And they could even force Aegon into following the Conqueror's example to take two wives (with Arianne being the other one) because he won't be able to refuse them if they say Sansa's hand is going to be the price he has to pay for ten or twenty thousand Vale men. He would need them to gain the throne and/or remain in power.

And, of course, Littlefinger would be in for a massive surprise once he realizes that Varys is the guy behind Aegon. But he doesn't know that at this point. In fact, chances are pretty good that throwing Sansa at Aegon will be the beginning of Littlefinger's end because it will allow Sansa to emancipate herself from Littlefinger. Something she cannot do in the Vale.

I don't think Sansa and Aegon are going to hook up and become an item. I definitely agree (and like) your thoughts that Sansa meet Aegon and Arianne and JonCon and reunite with Varys before the shit hits the fan when Dany arrives and the Wall falls. It would be good to do that as it links the Stark story with Team Aegon (aka Team AnyoneExceptForHer) story early.

But Sansa doesn't want to go to King's Landing. She wants to go to Winterfell.

The whole point of this chapter in Sansa's story is for her to develop agency and to learn how to play the game of thrones. Her break from Littlefinger will take a long time (longer than it will take Arya and Bran to break from the FM and the Cave) but it has to start soon.

Even if Littlefinger tries throwing her at Aegon, Varys would recognize it for what it is. Yes, it would be the beginning of the end of Littlefinger. Either Varys would prevent it or he would get Arianne or JonCon to prevent it. JonCon is not a forgiving man either so...yep. Sansa herself might prevent it by revealing her identity and/or marrying Sweetrobin or Harry the Heir ahead of schedule -- which would throw a big monkey wrench in his plans.

The Vale can support Aegon nominally but I think that their attention will be preoccupied with whatever Harry the Heir or Sweetrobin are preoccupied with. And with Sansa there, they might be more inclined to focus on the affairs of Winterfell or Riverrun.

If Sansa focuses on northern Westeros, her marriage to Tyrion would be ignored or lambasted as fake. A marriage by swordpoint is no real marriage and I don't think that's just something people say. The only people in the North who care about what the High Septon has to say are a handful of people in White Harbor--and those people would likely choose House Stark over High Septon in a pinch.

And the current High Septon is very unpredictable to say the least. He might "excommunicate" House Lannister which would then free Sansa. Idk the Sansa story in Winds is one of the more complicated matters of the story.

On 1/11/2021 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

Catelyn wasn't into the whole 'King Robb' thing if you recall ... and her royal son then decided to cut her out of his government, basically. If Lady Stoneheart still cares about mundane politics - and not just to bathe in Frey and Lannister blood, which is actually more likely - then she might strive to set herself up as the new immortal ruler of whatever she wants to claim (the Riverlands, say, because her followers are there). She already has Robb's crown. But she could also aspire to cleanse Riverrun of Genna and Emmon to restore Edmure to his rightful seat. The North doesn't seem to be on her mind since she made no effort in the last two books to influence events there.

She also seems not all that interested in finding her surviving daughters.

But the reason the Riverlands are important is that quite a few Targaryen loyalists are there right now ... and they will drawn other Riverlanders to Aegon's cause. And of course there is a good chance that the anti-Frey/Lannister coalition is going to want to team up with Aegon if they do not only want to free the Riverlands but carry the war to the Westerlands to burn Lannisport and crack open the Rock and eradicate the Lannisters the same way they will want to eradicate the Freys.

Yes she is interested in finding her surviving daughters.

Why is she still walking around with Robb's crown if she just wanted to crown herself as an immortal queen? Why not put in on her head?

Catelyn is looking for Arya. I thought that was made clear in the second-to-last Brienne chapter where the Inn at the Crossroads is an base of operations for the BwoB that seems to be particularly keen on sheltering orphan children. Why else would Gendry be positioned there?

Catelyn is in the Riverlands so yes, her focus is on the Riverlands. But I don't think that she has forgotten that the Boltons were not only complicit but active in the Red Wedding. I don't know if that was Roose Bolton or not but the man in the pink cloak was wearing the colors of House Bolton.

The thing about Catelyn is that she doesn't seem to concerned about Arya Stark being married to Roose Bolton's bastard in Winterfell. The only explanation why would be that she knows that that Arya is fake and that the real one is still alive.

I think she is looking to find and crown the real Arya and then exorcise the North of the Boltons. In the meantime (or, in case she doesn't find Arya), she's just trying to kill as many Lannisters and Freys as she can.

On 1/11/2021 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

Catelyn wasn't into the whole 'King Robb' thing if you recall ... and her royal son then decided to cut her out of his government, basically. If Lady Stoneheart still cares about mundane politics - and not just to bathe in Frey and Lannister blood, which is actually more likely - then she might strive to set herself up as the new immortal ruler of whatever she wants to claim (the Riverlands, say, because her followers are there). She already has Robb's crown. But she could also aspire to cleanse Riverrun of Genna and Emmon to restore Edmure to his rightful seat. The North doesn't seem to be on her mind since she made no effort in the last two books to influence events there.

She also seems not all that interested in finding her surviving daughters.

But the reason the Riverlands are important is that quite a few Targaryen loyalists are there right now ... and they will drawn other Riverlanders to Aegon's cause. And of course there is a good chance that the anti-Frey/Lannister coalition is going to want to team up with Aegon if they do not only want to free the Riverlands but carry the war to the Westerlands to burn Lannisport and crack open the Rock and eradicate the Lannisters the same way they will want to eradicate the Freys.

I think the first place Arya will want to go when she leaves the FM is to the North. I think news of Jon and Jeyne will factor into her decision.

But I think it's going to take all or most of Winds for Arya to leave the FM

On 1/11/2021 at 5:50 PM, Lord Varys said:

Brienne was looking for Sansa and Arya, so if she were to continue this she would go to the Vale as she intended.

Well, then, she'd be back on track finding Sansa.

 

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