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TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely

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2 hours ago, GoldenGail3 said:

I don’t trust the words of GRRM at all. I’ll trust him when there’s a release date on it and that’s all.

When does GRRM have to finish the book for it to be released around Christmas? September-October?

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

When does GRRM have to finish the book for it to be released around Christmas? September-October?

W/ Dance we had 2 1/2 months between Martin announcing completion to publication. W/ Feast the interval was a bit longer. Maybe? Don’t remember that far back tbh.

Edited by kissdbyfire

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5 hours ago, Mithras said:

And whose fault is that? I know a gardener who doesn't make future plans.

Yeah, it’s all his own doing, but I can’t blame him for being over ambitious, he probably didn’t consider how much more difficult writing would become as he got older. None of us really know what mental or physical state we will be in when we are 71. I don’t actually think he owes us two more books if he doesn’t feel up to it. It’s his life and I wish him all the best however it turns out, whether we get 1 more book, 2, or even none.

And tbf, the only books that would become a bit redundant if he doesn’t finish it are Feast, Dance and Winds (although Winds alone could resolve a lot of things from Feast and Dance, making them much less redundant if Dream never happens). AGOT, Clash and Storm formulate a really tight trilogy which can be thoroughly enjoyed without reading any of the books thereafter, as most of the major plot points are settled within those books (The Stark - Lannister War, The puppet master Tywin getting slain by his tormented son, Danaery’s conquering and deciding to rule a City, Jon becoming commander of The Nights Watch). There’s obviously still questions lingering from those books, but that leaves something to the imagination. So at the very least if we don’t get another book, I’d still happily revisit those 3, although I’d struggle to bother with a Feast and Dance.

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4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

When does GRRM have to finish the book for it to be released around Christmas? September-October?

I dunno lol. Also i sounded like a ninny lol. I hope that GRRM finishes his books... 

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I mean, "shortly" as in starting about 20 months out from completing it, sure. That's why I'm calling a 2022 publication right now (although 2021 would be great and I'd be happy to be proven wrong).

Seen as we have had a series of encouraging of blog posts in the last few months, people on this very forum have drawn parallels to the series of likewise encouraging posts on ADWD back in 2010 when everyone was longing for the book to be released. So I've been going back to GRRM's Live journal (the original version of "Not A Blog") and I've listed every blog post/quote he's made regarding progress on ADWD in the 20+ months or so prior to his famous blog post in April 2011 finally saying that he's done. So here it is:   

"Taking another whack at the Meereenese knot today. I'm going to try breaking two largish chapters into four smallish ones, changing the order of events somewhat, and weaving them all together. Maybe that will work a little better." - 3/9/2009

"A DANCE WITH DRAGONS: I took a good hard swack at the Meereenese knot. The sword bounced off and cut my nose off. Bugger." - 9/9/2009

"I decided to take a break from tearing and fumbling at the Meereenese knot, and completed a chapter about another character today. A character who is very far from Meereen. Finishing the chapter felt good. Especially since it also completed that character's arc for the book. Admittedly, she has only two chapters in DANCE, so I am not sending up any flares. But hey, I'm done with one of them for the present, that's something. Only thirty-eight more POVs to wrap up..." - 11/9/2009  ( GRRM is most likely referring to either Arya or Cersei, since they are the only 2 females POVs who have 2 chapters in ADWD) 

"Finished a Jon Snow chapter, and have just passed the 1100 page (manuscript pages, the page count in the final printed book will be different) mark on A DANCE WITH DRAGONS. That's counting only finished chapters in something close to final form. I have considerably more in partials, fragments, and roughs. Even with just the finished portions, DANCE is now longer than A FEAST FOR CROWS and A GAME OF THRONES, and I'm closing in on A CLASH OF KINGS. I do hope I can wrap things up before I approach the 1521 page length of A STORM OF SWORDS. Making a new run at the Meereenese knot, but maybe not tomorrow. I think I'll hang around at the Wall a bit longer, and maybe visit Winterfell." - 6/10/2009 

"I meant to post yesterday on the weekend's games, but got busy writing instead, and finished a Tyrion chapter that I've been struggling with for six months. Nibbling away at that knot. We'll see if the finished chapter holds up to reread and polish today." - 5/1/2010 

Big update on the Meereenses knot -> Dancing - 28/1/2010 

"A good day with snow"(sort of teaser post) -> https://grrm.livejournal.com/130165.html - 29/1/2010  

Martin is annoyed by the fact that people think any cryptical update means ADWD is finished -> No,no,no - 30/1/2010

"I have indeed finished that Jon Snow chapter, and I think it doesn't suck. That doesn't mean the book is done. Still more to write. Just sayin'. Santa Fe has warmed up some and the snow is starting to melt here. I think that may mean I have to go back to Meereen again, at least until another storm blows in." - 31/1/2010

"Snowing again in Santa Fe... which probably means I should be working on another Jon Snow chapter, but I'm not. Instead I'm floating off the Isle of Cedars, or racing across the sands of Dorne. Warm places, both of them, with nary a flake to be seen. But I'd better not change horses. If I keep on keeping on, I should finish one of those chapters this week. Maybe both." - 3/2/2010

"Spent the day in the rainwood. 1205 pages. More to come. DANCE has now passed A CLASH OF KINGS to become the second longest volume in the series, though still three hundred pages shorter than the monster that was A STORM WITH SWORDS." - 8/2/2010 (Here ,GRRM is clearly working on those Arianne chapters that were released as samples for TWOW)

"Not done yet. But today was a good, productive day. Only problem is that the chapter I finished just now is going to require that I go back and rewrite one of the chapters I finished last week. Minor stuff, though. Shouldn't take more than a day. (Famous last words, I know)." - 14/2/2010 

Big blog post on GRRM reflecting on the timeline of ADWD and AFFC -> Not Done Yet - 15/2/2010

"Last but not least, there's Meereen. Can I just drop a hydrogen bomb on the damn place?" - 19/2/2010

"The Meereenese Knot ... may be fraying, just a little. But don't quote me on that." - 26/2/2010 

"On other fronts, I hit page 1311 yesterday. No, not done yet." - 2/3/2010

"And try not to laugh TOO hard at the part where I say I hope to finish DANCE by the end of the year. I really meant it, honest." - 5/3/2010 (Talking about an interview)

"I'm going back to the DANCE. I need to kill someone." -18/3/2010 

"Other monkeys are still frolicking up there, including Kong. He was a king in his world, but we'll teach him fear..." - 1/5/2010

"Meanwhile, I've been wrestling with Kong. For more than a week I've been pounding on the epilogue, but still can't get it to gel. This morning I put that aside for a bit and went back to rewrite a Tyrion chapter, and that's going much better." 16/6/2010

ADWD big update blog post on moving chapters from ADWD to TWOW ->Dancing in Circles?  - 27/6/2010

GRRM giving some sort of omen/hope for the fans ->A Good Omen??? - 2/7/2010

"Snowing heavily in Santa Fe, however, and I've been on a bit of a roll. I'll get to all that other stuff when I can. Kong comes first. Pat's just died. A quick death, but a messy one. Ugly, painful, humiliating. But hey, he earned it. Off I go to shovel Snow" - 21/7/2010

"And here I sit at my computer, still shoveling Snow. And snow. The snow won't stop. The squids don't like it much. sigh. I'm missing all the fun, just to make more fun for you guys." - 25/7/2010

"Finally, might mention that I finished a chapter of the DANCE today. I had one last chapter about this particular character -- I will call him Fred -- to finish, and then I am done with him for the book. Of course, in the writing, it turned into three chapters. So I finished a Fred chapter a week ago, and a Fred chapter an hour ago, and yet I STILL have one Fred chapter to finish. Sigh. The horizon recedes continuously before me." - 30/7/2010

(Fred probably refers to Frog, or Quentyn Martell)

Moving the Forsaken chapter from ADWD to  TWOW-> Dancing - 31/7/2010

"Still have that final Fred chapter to finish. Sometimes it's good to change gears, though, so I did that today, and completed the last Barney chapter. So that's one more viewpoint done with, at least. If only I didn't have so many of them..." - 1/8/2010

(Barney probably refers to Barristan)

"I actually had a very good day today, writing about a character who wasn't originally supposed to be a POV, but has turned out to be sharpest sword I've got for slicing through the Meereenese knot." - 4/8/2010

Another significant ADWD update -> Dancing - 7/8/2010 

"Back in Santa Fe again. And tomorrow, back in Westeros. The road goes ever on and on ... but there's no place like home." (it's not much but it's something) - 16/11/2010

"Meanwhile, in Westeros, I am wrestling with krakens." - 20/11/2010

"It's snowing. On Jon. On the krakens. On me. We all slog onward.Finished a chapter a few days ago. Revised another. Then re-revised it. The days go too fast, the work too slowly. But onward." - 16/12/2010

"Wrestling with a pair of krakens. One almost subdued, t'other still writhing and twisting and slapping me alongside the head with her tentacles. After them, I've got a wolf to face." - 15/2/2011

"And on other fronts... it's still snowing on Skull Island, but one of the krakens is done and t'other is down to the last tentacle. Closer and closer... inch by inch, word by word, step by step..." - 27/2/2011

Update on the cover for ADWD ->DRAGON TIME - 3/3/2011

Post to announce that ADWD is now longer than ASOS in terms of manuscript pages + updates on the krakens He's STILL a king in this world... - 12/3/2011

"So much stuff happening on so many fronts of late that I could spend all days posting updates here and still would not catch up. So forgive me if I am late announcing This or talking about That. I do my best, but Kong is a mighty foe. Back to Skull Island." - 15/3/2011

"Back to Kong." -23/3/2011

"Two more [short] chapters done. More to come. Kong grows bigger and bigger. Past 1600 pp in manuscript now. Oy. Certainly the biggest monkey ever to climb on my back. (Okay, okay, the biggest ape). Keep climbing, Kong. The biplanes are on their way. Listen? Is that their engines?" - 27/3/2011

"I am writing as fast as I can. Finished a Meereen chapter yesterday, hope to finish another one today" - 30/3/2011

Dance might get split in five different novels -> Bantam to split DANCE into Five  - 1/4/2011

Kong is dead, ADWD is officially ready until publication -> Twas Beauty - 27/4/2011

After that point, his blog post are mostly about publication details, meetings with his publishers, etc...

Keep in mind that GRRM was way more active on his NotABlog 10 years ago than he is now. He sometimes did several posts a day, and very rarely less than two per weeks (except when he was travelling, sick,etc..). So the frequency of his posts can perhaps explain why the number of ADWD updates (and their frequency as well ) is far superior to that of TWOW updates.  Furthermore, I personnaly have noticed that he is far more expansive and detailed on what he's writing when updating. He repeatedly names the POVs he's working on, stating how many chapters he's recently completed for these POVs , openly mentions places where the plot is taking place, and even goes so far as to reveal several times his manuscript pages count.

Today, we have only character names, and completed chapter numbers, and most of all warnings saying that it's a long book and that we should not get too excited.

" I am still up in the mountains, doing the social distancing rag, and writing WINDS OF WINTER.   I have good days and bad days, but I am making progress. [...] The only thing I am writing myself is THE WINDS OF WINTER, as I have said many times… [...] There’s always more. But this post has grown long enough, and Westeros is calling." - 14/4/2020

"If nothing else, the enforced isolation has helped me write.   I am spending long hours every day on THE WINDS OF WINTER, and making steady progress.   I finished a new chapter yesterday, another one three days ago, another one the previous week.   But no, this does not mean that the book will be finished tomorrow or published next week.   It’s going to be a huge book, and I still have a long way to go. [...] The last thing I need right now is a long interruption that might cost me all the momentum I have built up.   I can always visit Wellington next year, when I hope that both Covid-19 and THE WINDS OF WINTER will be done. [...]  In between tapings, I return to Westeros.   Of late I have been visiting with Cersei, Asha, Tyrion, Ser Barristan, and Areo Hotah.   I will be dropping back into Braavos next week.    I have bad days, which get me down, and good days, which lift me up, but all in all I am pleased with the way things are doing.  [...] Mostly, it’s just me in Westeros, with occasional side trips to other places in the pages of a great book. Now you will have to excuse me. Arya is calling. I think she means to kill someone." - 23/6/2020 

"This writing stuff is hard. Even so, it has been going well of late.   Three more chapters completed this past week.   And good progress on several more. Still a long long way to go, though.   Do not get too excited. [...] Me and the Frog are headed back to Westeros." - 19/7/2020

"My life is at home, on hold, and I am spending the days in Westeros with my pals Mel and Sam and Vic and  Ty.    And that girl with no name, over there in Braavos." - 15/8/2020  

And notice that we have had only 4-5 updates in the span of about 5 months ,compared to the 16+ (!) ADWD-related blog posts between late january 2010 and late june 2010. So despite the fact that George seems to be on a writing spree, I think we have yet to reach the pre-ADWD level of updates. However, that doesn't mean that WINDS might after all not come out sometime next year or the year after, but rather that either GRRM is more secretive about it, or that he simply doesn't want to update fans in detail. Anyway here's a list of every confirmed TWOW chapter we know about by Brynden BFish(to get our hopes up a bit): https://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/hvtrv8/spoilers_extended_a_list_of_every_confirmed_and/

 

Edited by The Winged Griffin

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Posted (edited)

I just wonder at what point it becomes plain and clear to him that he wont get the series finished - Does he have a contingency plan? I know he used to get insulted at the notion but he needs to get real. I don't expect Winds for another 2-3 years at least. The "long, long way to go" stuff is ominous. He's old. Valar morghulis and all that. 

He's lost, rich unmotivated - He's never going to recover anything like his old writing pace, it will only get worse. I imagine even thinking of the book/deadline gives him nothing but anxiety. I doubt he's doing this out of love for the story anymore so much as he's just under pressure to finish what he started. A monster he has to slay. 

Sad to see. I actually love Feast and Dance, loved the increased world building and loved the new perspectives. But what did it cost? Everything.

We're never seeing Dream and I'm not convinced we'll ever see Winds. Been playing this game for too long. Something has obviously gone catastrophically wrong both with the story and the author. 

Edited by TeethGrinder

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26 minutes ago, TeethGrinder said:

I just wonder at what point it becomes plain and clear to him that he wont get the series finished - Does he have a contingency plan? I know he used to get insulted at the notion but he needs to get real. I don't expect Winds for another 2-3 years at least. The "long, long way to go" stuff is ominous. He's old. Valar morghulis and all that. 

He's lost, rich unmotivated - He's never going to recover anything like his old writing pace, it will only get worse. I imagine even thinking of the book/deadline gives him nothing but anxiety. I doubt he's doing this out of love for the story anymore so much as he's just under pressure to finish what he started. A monster he has to slay. 

Sad to see. I actually love Feast and Dance, loved the increased world building and loved the new perspectives. But what did it cost? Everything.

We're never seeing Dream and I'm not convinced we'll ever see Winds. Been playing this game for too long. Something has obviously gone catastrophically wrong both with the story and the author. 

I don't believe he will ever admit that to himself.  Look how many years he adamantly stated that the show would not outpace the books, when the writing was on the wall beginning in 2015 when he still hadn't gotten Winds out.  He sounds, right now, fairly encouraged, the pandemic appears to have forced him to curtail his distractions and really focus on Winds.  I've veered between a 70-30% he would get Winds completed and I'm back up to a 70% chance.  I can't imagine though he will finish the series.  

*If Winds isn't out by next year though, the odds will go down again substantially.  

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1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

So despite the fact that George seems to be on a writing spree, I think we have yet to reach the pre-ADWD level of updates.

 

1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

GRRM is more secretive about it, or that he simply doesn't want to update fans in detail.

I don’t remember if Martin said this on his NaB or an interview or somewhere else, but after Dance he said he wouldn’t be giving progress updates anymore. Iirc, the reason he gave was that people got too excited over minor updates and also that he was often wrong in his estimates. Or something along those lines. 
 

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

 

the reason he gave was that people got too excited over minor updates and also that he was often wrong in his estimates. Or something along those lines. 
 

Perhaps, but it is undeniable that the frequency and level of detail in his updates was way superior... when I read some of these 2010 updates, I was surprised by some of them, because they could almost be considered spoilery. Now, despite the apparent spike in TWOW updates, I don't think we'll ever reach that level of news on his current progress. I think he's coming back to the book after months if not years without so much as writing a word for the Winds of winter. the period between 2016 and 2019 was indeed a dark age for the ASOIAF fans who were waiting for TWOW.

Edited by The Winged Griffin

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3 hours ago, TeethGrinder said:

Does he have a contingency plan?

He said that he won't let anyone else finish the series. My question is whether the material he has already written will be released in some form should the worst happen.

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4 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

He said that he won't let anyone else finish the series. My question is whether the material he has already written will be released in some form should the worst happen.

Yeah. After he passes away, and despite his own feelings on the matter, anything can happen. I'd be surprised if some sort of continuation or a book about the planned ending isn't released one day, even if it takes decades from now.

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On 8/19/2020 at 10:22 AM, PrettyLittlePsycho said:

Don´t think so. He will publish when he´s done. The book is soo eagerly awaited, he wouldnt need any marketing at all (there will be of course), but he won´t tie himself to the new show.

No. The book isn't "soo eagerly awaited". You have to think out of the "ASOIAF bubble" like this forum is fanatical about the series, i'd wager most of people who post here have done dozens of re-reads some created theories and all that, but this is only representative of a very very very tiny proportion of fans. 

Most ASOIAF fans never re-read any of the books, nor read theories or read the prequels books (i didn't read those awful pseudo-historical wikipedia books ). If you read comments on various sites, youtube videos, twitter and even the own ASOIAF sites, it seems obvious to me that the majority have lost complete interest in the books and they're all don't expect any book after TWOW, even the media wrote pieces that state it's unlikely GRRM will finish the series, readers won't buy a unfinished series, the story has been told by the abomination and the end was so fucking awul that people won't bother with the story anymore. (As for "the journey is what matters", that depends on the books, a great journey with a shit end is a journey unlikely to be repeated, a poor journey with a good end is a journey people will undertake again because the juice is worth the squeeze.. Ultimately it is subjective, but most people are casual readers and watchers and they want closure and a satisfying conclusion beyond everything else, sure the ride has to be good too, but they're only interested in riding it once)

TWOW was eagerly awaited around 2015/2016 or 2019 before the abomination of season 8, if GRRM have published the nook at that time it would have the potential to be a massive, ridiculously insane level seller, the right time to make money is when people are hungry for it and that opportunity is gone. And with the disappointing ending of the abomination... that changed signigicantly on hooking new readers who want know more of the story, and that goes for old show watchers and readers too. I'd say every year after TWOW fails to be released it will have fewer people wanting to read. 

The publishers lose money and the only way to get it back is combination HBO new show's marketing with TWOW.

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12 hours ago, ThotKiller said:

readers won't buy a unfinished series

Maybe in future, but right now we don't know the series won't be finished.  What media people say is pure speculation on that subject, just like what fans say.

12 hours ago, ThotKiller said:

the story has been told by the abomination and the end was so fucking awul that people won't bother with the story anymore

You seem to think the ending from the show must be the same as the ending in the books.

Very doubtful. The show created so many stunning changes, the books really can't end the same way at all.

If I had seen the complete run of the show, and only then read book five, I would have been shocked at all the huge changes and I would have known Martin and the show people just were not telling the same story.

For instance, look at how the second Long Night ended in the show.  Ask yourself if it can possibly end that same super-easy, super-tidy, super-fast way in the books. 

The answer is: No, it can't, because that involved a major villain in the show who doesn't even exist in the books in the same way at all.  That situation alone proves the books can't be the same as the show at a basic level.

However, the world is full of fans who don't get this. So I predict book six will come out, it will blow minds, and only then will it dawn on those fans that the story Martin is telling is fundamentally different from the story HBO told and we really cannot learn anything about future books by having watched the show.

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1 hour ago, HugorHell said:

You seem to think the ending from the show must be the same as the ending in the books.

Well, if the series happens to never be finished, the show will be the closest thing we will have to a conclusion of this story, however terrifying it may seem

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18 minutes ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Well, if the series happens to never be finished, the show will be the closest thing we will have to a conclusion of this story, however terrifying it may seem

I think it will be finished eventually,though maybe not by GRRM.

Of late I´m often reminded of Robert Jordans Wheel of Time. Another author who "slightly" underestimated the scope of his project. It was planned as a trilogy and evolved into a 14 book monster. The last 2 or 3 were written by a befriended author after Jordan passed away.

Surely not hoping for it, but I can imagine a similar fate for ASOIAF.

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2 hours ago, HugorHell said:

You seem to think the ending from the show must be the same as the ending in the books.

Very doubtful. The show created so many stunning changes, the books really can't end the same way at all.

 

No i don't think the ending of the show will be the same in the books, but the majority of casual readers believe it will. Those casual reader are the same ones that like the show season 1-4 and like the way differ from the books. For example i have a cousin who read ASOIAF only one time, he never read any theories and all that, he love the tywin-arya scenes, he like the way the show changed Cersei he said in the books she is just a caartonish evil villain, he like Brienne vs the hound he said it was better than the hound die in a stupid bar scene, hell he even like Talissa he said loved the way she died because in the books she still alive but we amolst see her anymore. The only think he didnt like was not see lady stoneheart. And this represent the opinion of the majority of readers.

IMO the show became a fanfiction sinse season 2 and i knew after the changes they made it would create a buttlerfly efect that would destroy all characters, like they erase Sansa relationship with the Hound im sure in TWOW they will meet again, but they erase their bond so they put sansa in winterfell to be raped. But the casual readers dont think in that way, some believe Sansa will be raped in the books by Harry the heir...And the showrunners just wrapped the things more faster. 

Casual readers think the books will have the same ending because GRRM himself told the end will be the same... GRRM said things like " The show is a Faithful adaptation", " It will be the same end for the main characters", "Some people will like D&D ending better than mine"... those interviews was in the media for years and they all saw the awful ending they dont want read this story anymore.

3 hours ago, HugorHell said:

For instance, look at how the second Long Night ended in the show.  Ask yourself if it can possibly end that same super-easy, super-tidy, super-fast way in the books. 

I hate the long night episode. I dont think the books will be the same... But there people on this forum who believe the others will be defeated at WINTER-FELL, and fuck if in the books the other lose at Winterfell it would be Anticlimatic in the same way.

 

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, ThotKiller said:

fuck if in the books the other lose at Winterfell it would be Anticlimatic in the same way.

But the Others aren't exactly meant to be the climax of the books, they're not the "final threat" to Westeros that the characters are supposed to defeat. But back to TWOW...

GRRM is writing less and less blog posts on NotaBlog. It feels as though he's losing contact with his fandom. Reading the 2009-2011 posts felt like he thought himself as a grandfather speaking to his grandkids(at least in my opinion) and pleasing them with treats etc... But now, I feel he's shy when talking to his fandom, perhaps because of some fear of reprisals or nasty questions about TWOW. Perhaps that's also something that may have slowed the writing pace. He doesn't feel like pleasing his fans anymore. Maybe that's also another reason why he hasn't added another sample chapter in almost five years, besides the fact that there's already a decent chunk of the book out there.

Edited by The Winged Griffin

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