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Quaithe from Asshai

TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely

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I've always thought that the probability of an event happening only increases (as long as we know it will happen anywayas time passes. TWOW hasn't been announced in nearly ten years (and I am pretty convinced that it will be published one day), which makes the probability of an announcement ever more likely. TWOW already had around 100-200 MP even before he started writing the book. And we know he's making frequent progress, and that there are already at least 30+ chapters that he has pretty much finished/ that are in a mostly publishable form, or need minor polishing. That we know of. So unless he's been doing a major rewrite (many speculate that's what happened after his 2016 mega-update), there is a good chance that in terms of chapters, he is already at least halfway through the book. And he doesn't tell his fans everything. There's obviously more chapters that we don't know about. So yeah, TWOW in 2021 could be a thing. And if not, then 2022 is even more likely than any other date, because it would coincide with House of the Dragon airing, which would boost success for both the show and the book. Might be he'll set himself that deadline if he can't finish TWOW by 2021.

Fingers crossed, we'll have The Winds of Winter in hand when the pandemic will finally recede...

Edited by The Winged Griffin

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What does everyone think of the latest not-a-blog?  (at the risk of parsing every word for hidden meanings like it's a papal encyclical)

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/08/26/life-after-death/

I wonder if he is reacting to some Westeros happening he just finished writing about, or to the real-world insanity going on. Or maybe it is an oblique reference to criticism he received from hosting Hugo awards.

Or maybe it's just a contemplative post without hidden motivations.  I definitely agree with him on Boromir - he's the most interesting character in the fellowship. (followed by Pippin, IMO)

Trying to tie this back to the topic - even posts like this are pretty grounded in Westeros, which can only be good news for his progress on Winds.  Now if he started including Westeros references in his football posts, I might start to get really excited.

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4 hours ago, mushroomshirt said:

What does everyone think of the latest not-a-blog?  (at the risk of parsing every word for hidden meanings like it's a papal encyclical)

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/2020/08/26/life-after-death/

I wonder if he is reacting to some Westeros happening he just finished writing about, or to the real-world insanity going on. Or maybe it is an oblique reference to criticism he received from hosting Hugo awards.

Or maybe it's just a contemplative post without hidden motivations.  I definitely agree with him on Boromir - he's the most interesting character in the fellowship. (followed by Pippin, IMO)

Trying to tie this back to the topic - even posts like this are pretty grounded in Westeros, which can only be good news for his progress on Winds.  Now if he started including Westeros references in his football posts, I might start to get really excited.

All three, I think.  The irony is that Gandhi himself is now under fire (and really, Gandhi did hold some awful opinions, such as his view that Jews should willingly enter the gas chambers) but you can't just judge a figure of historical importance solely by some awful opinions that that person held.  You have to judge that person in the round.  Every hero has feet of clay.  That doesn't make them rotten to the core.  And that's true of his principal characters in this tale.

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It was very interesting when George said in a recent Not a Blog post that:

"I am spending the days in Westeros with my pals Mel and Sam and Vic and Ty."

The inclusion of "Vic" (i.e., Victarion Greyjoy) was especially eyebrow-raising because most theorists expect him to die early on in TWOW. Surely George has completed at least the first half of TWOW after all of this time, and so why in the world would he be working on a Victarion chapter? The answer, I believe, is that George has completed a full draft of the manuscript and is now circling back to earlier chapters in the novel in order to do a final round of editing.

Interesting take. I'm not sure what to think of it, but I want to believe. 

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2 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

most theorists expect him to die early on in TWOW

most theorists are wrong lol

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I am new to this forum and maybe it has been allready discussed, but hasn't George RR Martin said the following last year:

"if I don’t have THE WINDS OF WINTER in hand when I arrive in New Zealand (2020!) for worldcon, you have here my formal written permission to imprison me in a small cabin on White Island, overlooking that lake of sulfuric acid, until I’m done."

How can one make such a statement and still not deliver? 

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2 hours ago, Dalinar said:

I am new to this forum and maybe it has been allready discussed, but hasn't George RR Martin said the following last year:

"if I don’t have THE WINDS OF WINTER in hand when I arrive in New Zealand (2020!) for worldcon, you have here my formal written permission to imprison me in a small cabin on White Island, overlooking that lake of sulfuric acid, until I’m done."

How can one make such a statement and still not deliver? 

Well he is imprisoned in a cabin in New Mexico :p

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7 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Well he is imprisoned in a cabin in New Mexico :p

Well, yeah, kind of XD

But Jesus Christ, you can not make such a statement public when you are not 100% sure. You will loose all your credibility. 

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1 hour ago, Dalinar said:

Well, yeah, kind of XD

But Jesus Christ, you can not make such a statement public when you are not 100% sure. You will loose all your credibility. 

Very true. It really feels like this is all a joke to GRRM and he's not taking this seriously. Despite what a lot of his defenders have said, he does owe his fans. We've had nothing in years and it isn't fair. As good as the book was, he never should have written Fire and Blood until TWoW was done. Can you imagine if JK Rowling wrote a History of Quiditch before the Half Blood Prince? The HP fans would be really angry.

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11 hours ago, Quaithe from Asshai said:

Well he is imprisoned in a cabin in New Mexico :p

His mountan cabin is in Colorado :P

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3 hours ago, Ghostlydragon said:

Very true. It really feels like this is all a joke to GRRM and he's not taking this seriously. Despite what a lot of his defenders have said, he does owe his fans. We've had nothing in years and it isn't fair. As good as the book was, he never should have written Fire and Blood until TWoW was done. Can you imagine if JK Rowling wrote a History of Quiditch before the Half Blood Prince? The HP fans would be really angry.

You can not force Art. So I don't think it is a question of wheather it is fair or not. 

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2 hours ago, Dalinar said:

You can not force Art. So I don't think it is a question of wheather it is fair or not. 

I honestly feel bad for GRRM, the guy clearly has some form of writers block. I know a big issue he's had while writing AFFC/ADWD is making up his mind on certain things, which led to him writing and rewriting many of his chapters. I'm pretty sure he wrote 3 versions of Quentyn meeting Dany and quite a few versions of Tyrion's Shrouded Lord chapter, one or two actually have Tyrion meeting the guy. At this point, I'll just be thankful if I ever get a chance to read another A Song of Ice and Fire book, though to be honest Elden Ring is probably the GRRM project I'm looking forward to the most.

Edited by sifth

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1 hour ago, sifth said:

I honestly feel bad for GRRM, the guy clearly has some form of writers block. I know a big issue he's had while writing AFFC/ADWD is making up his mind on certain things, which lead to him writing an rewriting many of his chapters. I'm pretty sure he wrote 3 versions of Quentyn meeting Dany and quite a few versions of Tyrion's Shrouded Lord chapter, one or two actually have Tyrion meeting the guy. At this point, I'll just be thankful if I ever get a chance to read another A Song of Ice and Fire book, though to be honest Elden Ring is probably the GRRM project I'm looking forward to the most.

I feel bad for him too. Years ago he was considered the hope of the fantasy genre. He was considered the new Tolkien. Every article and every Internet entry had nothing but praise for this man. Nowadays he is mostly used as a meme for unfinished stuff and procrastination. No one deserves this.

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4 hours ago, Dalinar said:

I feel bad for him too. Years ago he was considered the hope of the fantasy genre. He was considered the new Tolkien. Every article and every Internet entry had nothing but praise for this man. Nowadays he is mostly used as a meme for unfinished stuff and procrastination. No one deserves this.

Yes but I don't think anyone other than himself is to blame... As he said himself, it's on him, and him only. Of course, he would probably be done by now if it weren't for the huge amount of stress that such a work must give him (and the occasional angry fan criticizing him for his writing speed), and I understand why it takes so long. 

I just hope that after TWOW is published, we'll get to learn what went wrong and why...

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10 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Yes but I don't think anyone other than himself is to blame... As he said himself, it's on him, and him only. Of course, he would probably be done by now if it weren't for the huge amount of stress that such a work must give him (and the occasional angry fan criticizing him for his writing speed), and I understand why it takes so long. 

I just hope that after TWOW is published, we'll get to learn what went wrong and why...

Of course no one is to blame. You can also not blame him, I think. Sometimes an author works himself into a corner amd looses his way in the story. George RR Martin has blown up his story into a chimera, whith hundreds of subplots and cant tie them up together. I think that is obvious. By writing Feast and Dance he has lost himself in the telling. Those books have barely a general plot, and are all over the place. In addition to this, he is very old right now. As someome who has an old grandfather (about the age of George RR Martin), I can tell you, their mental and physical capacity is not what it used to be. And you need both for writing 1500+ pages books. It is just natural. So, I dont think anyone is to blame. It is just how the things are.

Edited by Dalinar

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Funny how the same arguments come back over and over again:

  • Writers block, the man is writing all the time, just not on the same things;
  • He shouldn't have written Fire and Blood, Fire and Blood clarified some historical events that have been or could be addressed in ASOIAF, and are important to the story (if you read the Dunk and Egg stories, you will know that there were plenty of references between the series);
  • He is working on too much other stuff, this is true. But ask yourself: is it wise to keep on walking against the same closed door (storyline development) or should you go to another door and come back later to see if you can open the door at that point?
  • The books are all over the place, there are indeed many storylines, and more storylines are added time and again. However, the most important storylines (the game of thrones with Cersei, Daenerys, Baelish and Varys, the white walkers and the Wall with Jon, what is magic with Mellisandre and Arya) are all still developing. All other storylines are supporting and although it would be satisfying to see them all finished, it is not required for a proper ending of the ASOIAF series. For me loose ends in a book for supporting storylines can only mean that these storylines could be continued in another series in the same universe, if the writer wants to do that.

I'll be completely fair. I can wait for the books to be completed. If I want to I can re-read the old and supporting books and get some satisfaction from them. I rather have GRRM take 5 years extra and provide a solid book where the main storylines are mostly without errors and slowly but surely converging and climaxing, then read it now and see a half-baked, incoherent story with tons of plotholes.

 

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4 hours ago, Ser Walter of AShwood said:

Funny how the same arguments come back over and over again:

  • Writers block, the man is writing all the time, just not on the same things;
  • He shouldn't have written Fire and Blood, Fire and Blood clarified some historical events that have been or could be addressed in ASOIAF, and are important to the story (if you read the Dunk and Egg stories, you will know that there were plenty of references between the series);
  • He is working on too much other stuff, this is true. But ask yourself: is it wise to keep on walking against the same closed door (storyline development) or should you go to another door and come back later to see if you can open the door at that point?
  • The books are all over the place, there are indeed many storylines, and more storylines are added time and again. However, the most important storylines (the game of thrones with Cersei, Daenerys, Baelish and Varys, the white walkers and the Wall with Jon, what is magic with Mellisandre and Arya) are all still developing. All other storylines are supporting and although it would be satisfying to see them all finished, it is not required for a proper ending of the ASOIAF series. For me loose ends in a book for supporting storylines can only mean that these storylines could be continued in another series in the same universe, if the writer wants to do that.

I'll be completely fair. I can wait for the books to be completed. If I want to I can re-read the old and supporting books and get some satisfaction from them. I rather have GRRM take 5 years extra and provide a solid book where the main storylines are mostly without errors and slowly but surely converging and climaxing, then read it now and see a half-baked, incoherent story with tons of plotholes.

 

You do realise that he has to finish another book after he finishes "Winds" right? He is now 72 years old. Let say he finishes "Winds" in 2021. He will be 73 at that point and needed 11 years for that book. He is getting older and will need more time and more rest, the older he gets. Say, for the sake of being optimistic, that he will need 15-20 years for Dream. I mean, nothing is impossible, but I can not imagine him writing on a 1500+Pages book when he hits 85. 

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1 hour ago, Dalinar said:

You do realise that he has to finish another book after he finishes "Winds" right? He is now 72 years old. Let say he finishes "Winds" in 2021. He will be 73 at that point and needed 11 years for that book. He is getting older and will need more time and more rest, the older he gets. Say, for the sake of being optimistic, that he will need 15-20 years for Dream. I mean, nothing is impossible, but I can not imagine him writing on a 1500+Pages book when he hits 85. 

I think (or is it wishful thinking?) that Dream will be faster to write because he knows where,how and when the story for each character ends, so at least a decent chunk of the book will have already been kinda planned/outlined in his head. TWOW has to get all the characters in the right position for the finale, bring them back together, so that creates a lot of Meereenese knots, etc... ADOS won't have that, since the story will have already been condensed back together again in Winds (kind of).

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1 hour ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I think (or is it wishful thinking?) that Dream will be faster to write because he knows where,how and when the story for each character ends, so at least a decent chunk of the book will have already been kinda planned/outlined in his head. TWOW has to get all the characters in the right position for the finale, bring them back together, so that creates a lot of Meereenese knots, etc... ADOS won't have that, since the story will have already been condensed back together again in Winds (kind of).

GRRM said the same thing, when asked about Winds, after he finished ADWD. So, if I were a player, I would not bet on that. 

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2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

I think (or is it wishful thinking?) that Dream will be faster to write because he knows where,how and when the story for each character ends, so at least a decent chunk of the book will have already been kinda planned/outlined in his head. TWOW has to get all the characters in the right position for the finale, bring them back together, so that creates a lot of Meereenese knots, etc... ADOS won't have that, since the story will have already been condensed back together again in Winds (kind of).

I'll give you some wishful thinking!

ADOS is already written. It's the book he really wanted to write after he finished ASOS - about after the wars and about good governance and taxes and legitimate power and the commonwealth. He's been trying to write TWOW, but he keeps getting distracted by clever ideas for ADOS (and all the other stuff too). The publishers will hold it back for a year or so though.

:blink:

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