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Quaithe from Asshai

TWOW in 2021 seems ever more likely

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Must say that I feel rather optimistic after that blog post. Been a long while since he even wanted to mention finishing the book. Nothing is granted of course, but only the fact that he speaks openly about it makes me quite optimistic

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Back in the day when I was young and still watching Western movies, I recall a cowboy explaining to a greenhorn why he loads his colt with five bullets only: "If you cannot kill something with five shot, you're not going to make it." (paraphrased).

How often did we hear from GRRM that TWoW will be released soonish?

Not. Going. To. Happen.

He's lost, and the story is trainwreck.

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I love the irony of this thread title heh. I had to say that. Anyway keep posting, guys, sorry for busting in.

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2 hours ago, Drabanten said:

Must say that I feel rather optimistic after that blog post. Been a long while since he even wanted to mention finishing the book. Nothing is granted of course, but only the fact that he speaks openly about it makes me quite optimistic

I understand and share your enthusiasm, but if you want to look at it like that ... he spoke openly about finishing the book in that January 2016 blog post too.

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On 6/27/2020 at 2:14 AM, Jekse said:

We will finally be able to disprove R + L = J 

 

I believe there is only one thing that will godsmack fans into making theories from the canon text in context before the books end. And that would be TWOW butchering their sacred cows that require the canon text to be twisted and contradicted.

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On 6/27/2020 at 3:41 AM, Werthead said:

That was an interesting statement, as it seemed to clash with all previous reports of the writing of the book. However, it might be that far more of ASoS was written as part of ACoK than previously suspected, and he's referring to the period of time after ACoK was published, so he didn't have to write 1500 MS pages in that time, maybe more like 1000. He clearly didn't write ASoS-as-published, from scratch in 10 months. As he's said, he even wrote chunks of ASoS on the assumption that they would be part of ACoK and they were moved (some of Arya's early ASoS chapters, most or all of Tyrion's ASoS storyline and others).

If he'd written all of ASoS in 10 months, the book would have been out a year after ACoK, not almost two. ACoK was published in October 1998, ASoS in August 2000 (although it slipped out to some UK bookshops in the last week of July).

For this reason it's sometimes easier to assess AGoT-ACoK-ASoS as one book split in three for size purposes, roughly 3,720 MS pages written in nine years (or roughly 3,500 in seven), as the splits between them are very hard to pick apart in the writing process.

That's exactly how I see those 3 books. And it's easy to see how they fit as Arc 1 of 3 from the 1993 outline. Yes 1991-2000 is 9 years, and 1991 is when George starts the count. But how much did he actually write in 1991 before putting it away until 1993? It seems more fair to start the clock when he came back to it in 1993 and actually started the grind. AGOT was released August 1st 1996. How far into 1993 was it when GRRM came back to ASOIAF? It seems it was only about 3 years of actual work, which would have included tons of research, that produced AGOT and a few hundred pages of ACOK. Maybe even some of ASOS too? That's an impressive feat.

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11 minutes ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

That's exactly how I see those 3 books. And it's easy to see how they fit as Arc 1 of 3 from the 1993 outline. Yes 1991-2000 is 9 years, and 1991 is when George starts the count. But how much did he actually write in 1991 before putting it away until 1993? It seems more fair to start the clock when he came back to it in 1993 and actually started the grind. AGOT was released August 1st 1996. How far into 1993 was it when GRRM came back to ASOIAF? It seems it was only about 3 years of actual work, which would have included tons of research, that produced AGOT and a few hundred pages of ACOK. Maybe even some of ASOS too? That's an impressive feat.

I believe the chronology is that George started writing AGoT in summer 1991, was called in to work on the Doorways pilot full-time in the autumn with a view to it being a fall 1992 launch, which later got delayed to a possible mid-season pickup in January 1993 or a fall 1993 launch before it was cancelled. The formal cancellation notice was given in early 1993. GRRM still had outstanding Hollywood obligations and Wild Cards work and finished those off before returning to Santa Fe to work on AGoT. Pretty much the second he did, he decided to commit to it as his next full-time project and sent the outline to his agent, so he could get a publisher and get paid for it.

So the 173 manuscript pages he sent out in the October 1993 outline is probably most or all of the material he wrote in 1991, perhaps somewhat revised. So that constitutes about 20% of the finished book, which is a nontrivial amount. GRRM also counts the period in late 1991-autumn 1993 as important because that's when he was doing a lot of the plot development in his head and constantly thinking about the book even when he was working on Doorways (he once noted he came up with much of Tyrion's plotline - at least the original 1993 outline version - during a long commute to casting sessions in France), without which the book may have proceeded in a very different direction.

This also explains why GRRM occasionally says he returned to work on AGoT in early 1994 after Doorways rather than late 1993 despite the outline having a hard date on it; after the outline was sent and before it was accepted for publication (which happened pretty quickly, in February 1994 I believe in the US and around May in the UK) he may not have done substantial work on it, since after Black and White and Red All Over failed to sell, GRRM was not minded to spend time working on a novel without a deal in hand for it.

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On 6/29/2020 at 2:09 PM, Kyll.Ing. said:

I understand and share your enthusiasm, but if you want to look at it like that ... he spoke openly about finishing the book in that January 2016 blog post too.

Yes, but that's excactly my point. He did mention it all those years ago and missed out spectacularly. The fact that he says these things again - even after that mishap - is what makes me optimistic. Since then he has really avoided talking about the book in these terms. 

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On 6/26/2020 at 6:35 AM, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Because the last option is he has been stuck in a hellacious amount of rewrites because he doesn't plan ahead nearly enough.

I have been thinking about this. In January 2016 he wrote that he thought he could finish by end of 2015. Given that five years have passed, the only thing I can think to explain such a large discrepancy is that he scrapped a large portion of the book and started from scratch. At this point, more time has passed between that post and now than had passed between Dance and that post...

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On 6/26/2020 at 2:27 PM, Loras said:

While you could be right about George going back to early chapters, I’m really not sure about Ser Barristan dying early.

He really is the character that connects ALL of the other characters in the Meereen plot. He knows Tyrion, Jorah (and what Dany said to him), Brown Ben, Tatters, the Dornish, Skahaz, Hizdahr, Green Grace, and likely Victarion seeing as he fought in Balon’s rebellion.  He likely has to survive the battle because without him the entire plot would lose a lot of focus.

His reckoning should really come from Dany - he acted on her behalf - and if she isn’t happy with it, she should deal with him.

Just now reading this earlier post. Perhaps the initial plan was for him to die early but for all the reasons you named above he realized this didn’t work and he had to do a major revision 

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8 hours ago, QhorinQuarterhand said:

Good news! George is still writing Winds!

https://georgerrmartin.com/notablog/

I would be more impressed if he was voluntaring for being kept in new zeeland until he finishes the book… 

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I have been thinking about this. In January 2016 he wrote that he thought he could finish by end of 2015. Given that five years have passed, the only thing I can think to explain such a large discrepancy is that he scrapped a large portion of the book and started from scratch. At this point, more time has passed between that post and now than had passed between Dance and that post...

If you think grrm is always scraping things from winds then how much might he have rewritten after GOT8? We might never see the book!

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30 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Just now reading this earlier post. Perhaps the initial plan was for him to die early but for all the reasons you named above he realized this didn’t work and he had to do a major revision 

Another important thing you should take into account is the time line. It is very likely that the battle of mereen should have been handled before danny's last chapter but was transported to winds.

And therefore barristan is the only person keeping mereen in order. Without him tyrion's sellsword's company probaly wouldn t even stay there because the city would fall into chaos. Until someone capable of ruling mereen in his stead appears he just can t die.

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3 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Just now reading this earlier post. Perhaps the initial plan was for him to die early but for all the reasons you named above he realized this didn’t work and he had to do a major revision 


I think this is possible but Barristan’s arc in ADWD is actually really well constructed.  The first time that he sees sunlight through the dark clouds is when he realises that war is the only answer.  The dark clouds symbolise his self doubt, another crippling flaw of his character.  

Barristan’s glorification of martial action is a major character weakness - despite being well intentioned and that awesome speech from Barristan I.  
 

Knowing the publication history of ADWD and following it closely for all of those years, knowing that Barristan was created to slice through the Meereenese knot is testament to the incredible prose in this novel.

I think that Barristan has to realise that his way hasn’t worked - a commentary on the meta level, and one of George’s key themes in ASOIAF.  As well as he is the only viewpoint that connects all the characters without copious reintroductions.

If - as many expect - Tyrion is going to rise into a position of power in Dany’s retinue, it kind of needs to be through Barristan (at this moment anyway).  I’d also love to read his thoughts about Jorah’s return.

ultimately, I expect the Battle of Fire to be an indecisive victory for one of the sides - with the crux of the story being about Tyrion, Barristan etc trying to keep hold of Meereen after the battle.

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On 6/30/2020 at 12:27 AM, Werthead said:

I believe the chronology is that George started writing AGoT in summer 1991, was called in to work on the Doorways pilot full-time in the autumn with a view to it being a fall 1992 launch, which later got delayed to a possible mid-season pickup in January 1993 or a fall 1993 launch before it was cancelled. The formal cancellation notice was given in early 1993. GRRM still had outstanding Hollywood obligations and Wild Cards work and finished those off before returning to Santa Fe to work on AGoT. Pretty much the second he did, he decided to commit to it as his next full-time project and sent the outline to his agent, so he could get a publisher and get paid for it.

I also have to say, the fact that he stopped writing Avalon to work on AGoT is actually really amazing. Had he continued with Avalon, as most authors would, none of us would be here.

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6 hours ago, divica said:

If you think grrm is always scraping things from winds then how much might he have rewritten after GOT8? We might never see the book!

That suggests that he would change the plot due to the blow back. I don’t think that will happen. Any differences will be because it will be better written and they were changes that the show writers chose to make (Stonehart, etc)

That said, I do think (and have said before) that the crux of the issue is something that happened in 2015 with the way the show handled things (showing a way that could have been, but wasn’t because Dance was already published) I think he regrets Tyrion not arriving before Danys flight in the fighting pits. this dovetails a bit into what you said about the BAttle of Meereen being moved from Dance to Winds.

3 hours ago, Loras said:
7 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

revision 


I think this is possible but Barristan’s arc in ADWD is actually really well constructed.  The first time that he sees sunlight through the dark clouds is when he realises that war is the only answer.  The dark clouds symbolise his self doubt, another crippling flaw of his character.  

I 100% agree with you. It was written so well and from such a place of authenticity. Could you imagine the agony of GRRM discovered that his plans for Barristan screwed other things up? 
 

This may have been said before but I think Barristan is destined to die at Dany’s hands. I think he is part of her turn to a darker nature. 
 

 

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10 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I have been thinking about this. In January 2016 he wrote that he thought he could finish by end of 2015. Given that five years have passed, the only thing I can think to explain such a large discrepancy is that he scrapped a large portion of the book and started from scratch. At this point, more time has passed between that post and now than had passed between Dance and that post...

It wouldn't surprise me if he had one version of Winds he was rushing to beat the show. Then he scrapped most of that and did anything that wasn't writing Winds pretty much until he went to the cabin 6 months ago. 

He hasn't exactly always been interested in writing TWOW. This 9 years and counting started off with 18 months of George not writing a single word of TWOW after delivering Dance. 

However I do recognize that he can write a bunch in burts. I can't rule out that a big problem is he actually has like twice as much TWOW material as intended.

He said just a few days ago that TWOW still has a long way to go. *YIKES*

George is inching ever closer to not finishing his own series. And he has nobody to blame but himself. There are multiple books worth of writing time in all those years of travelling where he notoriously refused to write away from home. There's plenty of pages worth of time that were spent writing a different book or doing something else when he did happen to be in Sante Fe. 

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1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

100% agree with you. It was written so well and from such a place of authenticity. Could you imagine the agony of GRRM discovered that his plans for Barristan screwed other things up? 
 

This may have been said before but I think Barristan is destined to die at Dany’s hands. I think he is part of her turn to a darker nature. 

I don’t think so... I actually think a lot of the things that happen from Barristan’s viewpoint were originally intended for Quentyn chapters and it wasn’t working.

i think some of George’s discussion of why Quentyn needs to get out of Meereen during Barristan’s viewpoint chapters actually explains why Barristan was needed as a viewpoint.

I think Barristan should be held to account for his recklessness.  He doesn’t understand the game of thrones so he actively chooses to manoeuvre Meereen into a situation where war is the answer - because he understands it better.  He really needs to be held to account for his reckless nature - where is the line between bold and reckless?

Depending on the ultimate end of the Meereen arc, by which I mean whether the city itself is restored or destroyed, will determine Barristan’s fate.  But your right, he should be judged by Dany for his actions...

... but if a significant portion of her strength (the unsullied) are destroyed in the Battle, I think it is unlikely she will forgive him.

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