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R + L = J v.167


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5 hours ago, lehutin said:

R+L=J denial can't explain this without rewording Cersei's question

Technically this isn't correct.  I think what you show is evidence that Jon may not be Ned's son, not that R + L = J is correct.  I can both deny R + L = J and also deny that Jon is Ned's son.

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2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Technically this isn't correct.  I think what you show is evidence that Jon may not be Ned's son, not that R + L = J is correct.  I can both deny R + L = J and also deny that Jon is Ned's son.

Point taken. I had forgotten that there still exist tinfoilers who hold that Brandon is Jon's father.

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22 hours ago, lehutin said:

Your response is basically the same as what I mentioned and addressed:

Cersei placed no restriction on the status of Ned's children. She didn't ask him

  • "you love your children with Catelyn, do you not?"
  • "you love your trueborn children, do you not?"
  • "you love your highborn children, do you not?"

She just asked him

Based on that question wording, If Jon is one of Ned's children, his name should be on that list: "Robb and Jon and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon." Even if you want to argue that despite the question wording, Ned mentally separates his children by legitimacy, Jon's name should still be on that list: "Robb and Sansa and Arya and Bran and Rickon; or Jon."

 

But neither of those happened on the page. Ned does not think of Jon as one of his children, trueborn or bastard, when he thinks to himself,

 R+L=J easily explains this: Jon isn't one of Ned's children. R+L=J denial can't explain this without rewording Cersei's question; assuming that Jon's name is implied on the page; dodging it by saying that Ned still thinks of Jon from Cat's perspective; or worst of all, bizarrely claiming that Ned is the George Washington-Abraham Lincoln of Westeros and never lies.

And it's all even curiouser that Ned apparently cares for Jon very much and is willing to go into quite some lengths  to provide for him far beyond the standard. Jon should be on the list, he should be "my son" instead of "my blood" when Ned flies off the handle. 

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You know I descend on this thread from time to time like a bad thing from outer space :) Here we go again:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

There is quite some time between Lyanna disappearing after Harrenhal and Ned marrying Catelyn. Regardless whether it was consensual or rape, Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't wait to have sex until Ned was married, did they?

Yes, I know sex doesn't lead to pregnancy instantly/each time, but there is quite some time between the two events.

 

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1 hour ago, alienarea said:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

Jon IS older than Robb. That's why Catelyn was afraid of him so much. Because if Ned ever decided to ask his buddy, King Robert, to legitimize Jon, then Jon, as an oldest child, would have became Ned's heir and the future Lord of Winterfell.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, while Robb was conceived in January or February.

Jon was born on 23rd of September in 283 (the day of autumnal equinox in 1983), and Robb's nameday is in October or November (November most likely).

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

You know I descend on this thread from time to time like a bad thing from outer space :) 

When you will be ascending back, check this out - Jon is Libra, Rhaego is Aquarius, and Dany is Gemini. All three are Air Signs of Zodiac. Three heads of the dragon. Jon is Azor Ahai reborn. Dawn of Daynes is Azor Ahai's Lightbringer. Jon is partially Dayne, thru Dyanna Dayne, mother of Aegon V Targaryen. The carrier of Dawn is titled the Sword of the Morning. Planet Venus is titled the Morning Star. Also in latin its name is Lucifer, which translates as "lightbringer". Venus is a guardian planet of Libra. Jon is Libra. Libras are born in September 23-October 22. Robb's birthday is later, closer to the Harvest Feast, which is Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday of November).

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

You know I descend on this thread from time to time like a bad thing from outer space :) Here we go again:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

There is quite some time between Lyanna disappearing after Harrenhal and Ned marrying Catelyn. Regardless whether it was consensual or rape, Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't wait to have sex until Ned was married, did they?

Yes, I know sex doesn't lead to pregnancy instantly/each time, but there is quite some time between the two events.

 

Should versus Could.

If the question one is answering is R+L=?, then the child one is looking for could be anywhere between a few months older than Robb, to roughly Danys age. Conception can happen the first time, but in real world it doesn't always. For Rhaegar & Lyanna, there are a number of reasons we can throw out for why they might not have had a child 9 months after the kidnapping; low sperm count, miscarriage, stress, missing the ovulation window (travel or living in close quarters with the KG could limit their opportunities to sleep together) etc.

The R+L=J theory is more typically presented as the answer to the question 'what is Jon's parentage?' For some less popular theories of Jon's parentage then Jon should be older than Robb.  Brandon and Rickard were both dead before Robb was conceived, so for either to be Jon's father then Jon would have to be the older child. But the established window for R+L allows for Jon to be both the age is he believed to be, and their child.

 

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

You know I descend on this thread from time to time like a bad thing from outer space :) Here we go again:

As far as I'm concerned, you are always welcome here, along with anyone else who wants to post. Just my individual opinion, but no informed post is a "bad thing." Even those with extra-terrestrial origins.

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

He could be. What is clear is that they are of a similar age. Two events documented in the story would show this to be the case. Robb is conceived on Ned and Catelyn's wedding night (according to Catelyn) which occurs sometime shortly after the Battle of the Bells. We know this to be the case because the wedding of Jon Arryn takes place at the same time of Ned and Catelyn's and his marriage to Lysa is in response, partly at least, to the death of Lord Jon's heir at the Battle of the Bells.

We also know that Rhaegar is found and he travels to King's Landing from hiding in the aftermath of Connington's defeat as Stony Sept. Which puts the latest Rhaegar and Lyanna could likely conceive a child right around the same time as Robb's conception - give or take a short period of time.

What is also clear is that Catelyn believes Jon is conceived by Ned sometime after he leaves Catelyn pregnant with Robb at Riverrun. Cat thinks Jon is younger, but if the two boys look to be about the same age, then a lie by Ned saying he betrayed his vows to Catelyn - as he tells Robert - can hide the fact Jon is, in reality, slightly older. We do know that if Jon is Rhaegar's and Lyanna's child, Ned has a powerful reason to lie about the timing of Jon's birth even it is by shifting the date by a month or two.

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

There is quite some time between Lyanna disappearing after Harrenhal and Ned marrying Catelyn. Regardless whether it was consensual or rape, Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't wait to have sex until Ned was married, did they?

Yes, I know sex doesn't lead to pregnancy instantly/each time, but there is quite some time between the two events.

There looks to be something slightly under a year between the "abduction" and the Battle of the Bells. So, yes, it means that Jon's conception would have to take place some time late in that time period. We have no idea when Rhaegar and Lyanna became lovers, assuming they did, but the timing of Jon's conception has to be before Rhaegar leaves and around the time of Ned & Catelyn's wedding.

By the way, this fits nicely in the timeframe laid out by Martin in his remarks about the difference between Jon and Daenerys's birth being between "eight or nine months, or thereabouts."

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15 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Jon IS older than Robb. That's why Catelyn was afraid of him so much. Because if Ned ever decided to ask his buddy, King Robert, to legitimize Jon, then Jon, as an oldest child, would have became Ned's heir and the future Lord of Winterfell.

Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, while Robb was conceived in January or February.

Jon was born on 23rd of September in 283 (the day of autumnal equinox in 1983), and Robb's nameday is in October or November (November most likely).

When you will be ascending back, check this out - Jon is Libra, Rhaego is Aquarius, and Dany is Gemini. All three are Air Signs of Zodiac. Three heads of the dragon. Jon is Azor Ahai reborn. Dawn of Daynes is Azor Ahai's Lightbringer. Jon is partially Dayne, thru Dyanna Dayne, mother of Aegon V Targaryen. The carrier of Dawn is titled the Sword of the Morning. Planet Venus is titled the Morning Star. Also in latin its name is Lucifer, which translates as "lightbringer". Venus is a guardian planet of Libra. Jon is Libra. Libras are born in September 23-October 22. Robb's birthday is later, closer to the Harvest Feast, which is Thanksgiving (the fourth Thursday of November).

To the bolded, all evidence shows this not to be the case. Catelyn believes Jon is younger because Ned is supposed to have conceived him sometime after he leaves Cat pregnant with Robb. That this is also the story Ned tells Robert is beyond doubt.

Catelyn is afraid of the place Jon's mother may have had in Ned's heart. She is afraid Lord Eddard's relationship with Robert could allow him to have Jon's bastard status removed, and therefore place him in line for the Lord's seat in Winterfell, but not because she thinks Jon is older. She doesn't.

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5 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

What is also clear is that Catelyn believes Jon is conceived by Ned sometime after he leaves Catelyn pregnant with Robb at Riverrun. 

~

then a lie by Ned saying he betrayed his vows to Catelyn - as he tells Robert - can hide the fact Jon is, in reality, slightly older.

Catelyn knows that Jon is older than Robb, that he was conceived before Ned married with her. But to Robert Ned lied that his bastard was conceived already after his wedding with Cat, because if Robert knew Jon's actual age, he would have realised that Ned can't be Jon's father, because if Jon was born in September, then he was conceived in December, and Robert knows for sure that in December Ned wasn't with some girl, whom he could have impregnated. Robert believes that Jon's mother is Wylla, and that Ned met Wylla already after he got married with Catelyn.

"

Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now. I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged.[6]

"

Catelyn thought that Ned fell in love with Ashara at the time of the False Spring, in late 281, and that they got back together in late 282, before Ned agreed to marry with Cat. Thus, Cat thought that Ned impregnated Ashara in late 282 (in December, because Jon was born in September), and several months later, probably while the pregnancy wasn't yet revealed to Ned (in January or February 283), he got married with Cat, and only later found out about Ashara's pregnancy. It is known that Ashara's brother, Arthur Dayne, was amongst Rhaegar's companions, who helped him to kidnap Lyanna. So, maybe, Cat thought that, after departing from The Vale, Ned sailed to Starfall, to check whether his sister is there, and also to visit his paramour, and that's when Jon was conceived by Ned and Ashara. And that after the war ended, Ned again went to Starfall, this time to give Arthur's sword to his sister, and that's when he supposedly found out that he has a bastard-child, and tried to take him away, and Ashara commited suicide because of this.

This confirms my theory:

"

If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be.[9]

—thoughts of Catelyn Stark
"
She knows that Jon is older than Robb, he was conceived before Cat's wedding with Ned. Though, she thought that Ned again went back to that woman, after he married with Cat.
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@SFDanny

AGOT, Jon III, chapter 19.

"“He said he’d be back by my name day,” he admitted. His name day had come and gone, unremarked, a fortnight past." - Jon's 15th birthday was 14 days ago. On that same day he received news that Bran regained consciousness, the raven brought that message 14 days after Jon's birthday.

AGOT, Bran IV, chapter 24. <- First Bran's chapter after he woke up. In that chapter there's no mentioning of Robb's birthday passing while Bran was in a coma. (Jon's birthday also wasn't mentioned there, though it was mentioned in one of Jon's chapters, so GRRM didn't repeated this same information in other chapters, not to give to readers too many clues). When Bran's birthday happened off pages, it was mentioned in the chapter. So, based on that, it seems that by chapter 24, Robb's 15th birthday didn't happened yet, otherwise Bran would have mentioned it. 

In one of Bran's later chapters, Bran VI, chapter 53 - "Robb seemed half a stranger to Bran now, transformed, a lord in truth, though he had not yet seen his sixteenth name day." <- By this point Robb is already 15, otherwise Bran would have thought that Robb isn't even 15 yet, but instead he thought that Robb isn't even 16 yet. Which means that his 15th birthday happened sometime prior this chapter. Between chapter 53 and 24, while Jon's birthday happened in span of chapter 19.

Thus, Jon's birthday is earlier.

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45 minutes ago, alienarea said:

You know I descend on this thread from time to time like a bad thing from outer space :) Here we go again:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

He could have been conceived any time up to when Rhaegar left Lyanna to return to KL and take command.

45 minutes ago, alienarea said:

There is quite some time between Lyanna disappearing after Harrenhal and Ned marrying Catelyn. Regardless whether it was consensual or rape, Rhaegar and Lyanna didn't wait to have sex until Ned was married, did they?

Who knows? Perhaps they waited until they were married? Perhaps it wasn't initially a lust/attraction/whatever 'abduction? Perhaps they only fell in love after the abduction? After all, there is no record of them spending any significant time personally interacting before the abduction, is there?

45 minutes ago, alienarea said:

Yes, I know sex doesn't lead to pregnancy instantly/each time, but there is quite some time between the two events.

My wife and I were older than is common when we married, in our mid-late 30s. Although we'd have liked to have spent more 'unencumbered' time together, we tried for a family immediately due to our ages. Conception took at least 5 months of trying, given our first child was born mid Dec a year after a early Nov wedding. 

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2 hours ago, SFDanny said:

To the bolded, all evidence shows this not to be the case. Catelyn believes Jon is younger because Ned is supposed to have conceived him sometime after he leaves Cat pregnant with Robb. That this is also the story Ned tells Robert is beyond doubt.

No disrespect intended to @Megorova, but she is in the habit of stating some of her wilder theories as fact, despite them not being supported by the text. Its always worth a listen though as there is gold amongst the dross on occasion.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Catelyn knows that Jon is older than Robb, that he was conceived before Ned married with her. But to Robert Ned lied that his bastard was conceived already after his wedding with Cat, because if Robert knew Jon's actual age, he would have realised that Ned can't be Jon's father, because if Jon was born in September, then he was conceived in December, and Robert knows for sure that in December Ned wasn't with some girl, whom he could have impregnated. Robert believes that Jon's mother is Wylla, and that Ned met Wylla already after he got married with Catelyn.

It is not possible to tie down the dates this accurately. All of this is supposition and does not fit with the words or actions of various characters.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

"

Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now. I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged.[6]

First, note that Harwin heard the tale and doesn't believe it.

Second, this tale implicitly excludes any pregnancy. Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that?
'More' might even include penetrative sex - 'where's the harm in that' (if its not proven). But a pregnancy, for an unmarried noble maiden, is extremely harmful, enough to destroy a life path entirely.

Further, not Jon is definitely not conceived at Harrenhal. He'd be much much too much older that Robb in that case,

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

Catelyn thought that Ned fell in love with Ashara at the time of the False Spring, in late 281, and that they got back together in late 282, before Ned agreed to marry with Cat. Thus, Cat thought that Ned impregnated Ashara in late 282 (in December, because Jon was born in September), and several months later, probably while the pregnancy wasn't yet revealed to Ned (in January or February 283), he got married with Cat, and only later found out about Ashara's pregnancy. It is known that Ashara's brother, Arthur Dayne, was amongst Rhaegar's companions, who helped him to kidnap Lyanna.

This is simply wrong.

Quote

Many men fathered bastards. Catelyn had grown up with that knowledge. It came as no surprise to her, in the first year of her marriage, to learn that Ned had fathered a child on some girl chance met on campaign. He had a man's needs, after all, and they had spent that year apart, Ned off at war in the south while she remained safe in her father's castle at Riverrun.

Cat explicitly believes Ned fathered a child while on campaign, off at war in the south while she remained at Riverrun -  after they were married in other words. Before they are married, while campaigning, he's almost entirely off in the north of her, not south, and she's not 'remaining' in Riverrun.
She also references Ned's needs and her inability to fulfill them due to separation, further indicating she believes those needs were 'fulfilled' by someone else after they were married.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

So, maybe, Cat thought that, after departing from The Vale, Ned sailed to Starfall, to check whether his sister is there, and also to visit his paramour, and that's when Jon was conceived by Ned and Ashara.

No. It was while he was on campaign. Not on some un-referenced, utterly illogical, and impossible time-wise trip virtually the length of the continent while Ned is supposed to be marshalling and collecting his troops and marching them south to join his fellow rebels.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

This confirms my theory:

"

If Jon had been born of Ashara Dayne of Starfall, as some whispered, the lady was long dead; if not, Catelyn had no clue who or where his mother might be.[9]

—thoughts of Catelyn Stark

It confirms nothing for any theory. All it says is that Cat only has one clue who Jon's mother was and if that clue isn't right she has no clues at all.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

@SFDanny

AGOT, Jon III, chapter 19.

"“He said he’d be back by my name day,” he admitted. His name day had come and gone, unremarked, a fortnight past." - Jon's 15th birthday was 14 days ago. On that same day he received news that Bran regained consciousness, the raven brought that message 14 days after Jon's birthday.

AGOT, Bran IV, chapter 24. <- First Bran's chapter after he woke up. In that chapter there's no mentioning of Robb's birthday passing while Bran was in a coma. (Jon's birthday also wasn't mentioned there, though it was mentioned in one of Jon's chapters, so GRRM didn't repeated this same information in other chapters, not to give to readers too many clues). When Bran's birthday happened off pages, it was mentioned in the chapter. So, based on that, it seems that by chapter 24, Robb's 15th birthday didn't happened yet, otherwise Bran would have mentioned it. 

No. Absence of evidence is not evidence. There is no requirement for Bran to have mentioned Robb's birthday. That he did not does not show Robb has not had his birthday.

2 hours ago, Megorova said:

In one of Bran's later chapters, Bran VI, chapter 53 - "Robb seemed half a stranger to Bran now, transformed, a lord in truth, though he had not yet seen his sixteenth name day." <- By this point Robb is already 15, otherwise Bran would have thought that Robb isn't even 15 yet, but instead he thought that Robb isn't even 16 yet. Which means that his 15th birthday happened sometime prior this chapter. Between chapter 53 and 24, while Jon's birthday happened in span of chapter 19.

Thus, Jon's birthday is earlier.

Flawed assumptions before calculations lead to flawed results.

There is no evidence that Jon is older than Robb (he may be, though not by much) and plenty of evidence that Robb is considered by all to be older than Jon.

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6 hours ago, alienarea said:

If Jon is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, shouldn't he be older than Robb?

Whatever the truth is, everyone in story believes that Jon is younger than Robb.

Ned talks about dishonoring Catelyn, which has been mentioned before.

Ygritte was much in his thoughts as well. He remembered the smell of her hair, the warmth of her body . . . and the look on her face as she slit the old man's throat. You were wrong to love her, a voice whispered. You were wrong to leave her, a different voice insisted. He wondered if his father had been torn the same way, when he'd left Jon's mother to return to Lady Catelyn. He was pledged to Lady Stark, and I am pledged to the Night's Watch. (Jon VI, ASoS 48)

There are different reasons Jon could be younger. For one, Rhaegar could have decided that Lyanna was too young. Elia's last birth left her unable to have anymore children. So maybe there's caution there. In FaB, Jaehaerys married Alysanne, but the marriage was not consummated because he felt she was too young for that. Something similar could have happened with Lyanna. 

We can debate this for as long as we want. Until a book comes out to debunk what Jon and Catelyn know / were told. Until some character comes out and says that Ned lied about when Jon was born, Jon is younger than Robb.

 

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Thank you all for your kind replies.

I've been around the forums for some years, and the more I involve in discussions, the more apparent it becomes to me that GRRM "made up stuff as he wrote" for the first three books, not really caring for timelines, distances and logic. Claiming the unreliable narrator technique is just a poor attempt at covering up. The problems became apparent in the last two books, with us on the internet analyzing every word twice and coming up with all kinds of crazy theories.

Lyanna goes missing, presumably together with Rhaegar, Brandon rushes to KL to die there with his father, and after the war Ned returns with a baby and refuses to talk about the baby's mother. But he brings home Lyanna's bones and buries them in the crypts.

And no one is Westeros is able to add one plus one? Really? They should all be dead from stupidity for a long time.

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1 hour ago, alienarea said:

Lyanna goes missing, presumably together with Rhaegar, Brandon rushes to KL to die there with his father, and after the war Ned returns with a baby and refuses to talk about the baby's mother. But he brings home Lyanna's bones and buries them in the crypts.

And no one is Westeros is able to add one plus one? Really? They should all be dead from stupidity for a long time.

Not necessarily. Bastards sired during the war is such a common occurence that no-one ever bats a lash about it. Those who know Ned think he never ever lies. Those not from Winterfell may not really care, and especially, not even know how old Jon supposedly was.

Also, I think it depends a lot if Jon and Lyanna's bones arrived at the same time. If I was Ned, I would use the detour to Starfall as means to pay passage on a ship for Howland and baby Jon with his wetnurse, and send them North. Meanwhile, I'd return via KL with Lyanna's bones, have a teary reunion with Robert, and continue North. The baby and the bones then arrive separately at different times, which pretty much muddies the connection and establishes in people's minds that those are two separate events. And the news that Ned has a bastard would also take some time to spread from Winterfell, putting further distance between the events.

Not saying that this is necessarily the only way, only that there are ways to pull wool over people's eyes. As we know from Alayne chapters, people do not even pry into the origins of bastards much, so for the majority of Westeros, this is really non-issue.

 

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

I've been around the forums for some years, and the more I involve in discussions, the more apparent it becomes to me that GRRM "made up stuff as he wrote" for the first three books, not really caring for timelines, distances and logic. Claiming the unreliable narrator technique is just a poor attempt at covering up. The problems became apparent in the last two books, with us on the internet analyzing every word twice and coming up with all kinds of crazy theories.

He is a self admitted "gardener" not an "architect" but that does not mean he does not obsess over details. I'd say he obsesses over sequence, motive, and logic. Distances, or rather the time it takes to realistically travel them, not so much. But then I've never really known an author who does. Martin has his magic winds to speed a fleet from Dragonstone to Eastwatch, and Tolkien had his eagles. I love JRRT, and GRRM, but those kind of "cheats" are legendary.

But a author doesn't obsess over many years on the sequence of events needed to untie the "Meereenese Knot" if he doesn't care about the mundane little details. He does.

2 hours ago, alienarea said:

Lyanna goes missing, presumably together with Rhaegar, Brandon rushes to KL to die there with his father, and after the war Ned returns with a baby and refuses to talk about the baby's mother. But he brings home Lyanna's bones and buries them in the crypts.

And no one is Westeros is able to add one plus one? Really? They should all be dead from stupidity for a long time.

Many in Westeros do question Lord Eddard's "math." I'd reread Cersei's words to Ned in the King's Landing godswood to see abundant evidence that people have not only questioned his tale, but seriously doubt it. Which raises the question of from where does Cersei get her suspicions? Out of her own head, or from Tywin, Lord Varys, or others? The real question is did Ned construct a believable enough cover story to stop people from not only questioning his story, but being able to prove it a lie. It helps tremendously that Ned's friend, the king, wants to believe his closer-than-a-brother fellow rebel. It also helps that Catelyn is forced to stop her own questioning of events by her husband's orders. And it helps that Howland Reed, Wylla the wet-nurse, and the Daynes of Starfall all support Ned's story.The rest of Westeros just has to take their doubts and live with them unless they can prove Lord Eddard Stark not only a liar, but a traitor. 

Add to all of this the fact Ned provides of tale of guilt and fallen grace that the small people and the little lords and ladies love to believe and this isn't hard to see as something that Ned uses successfully to hide his actions. Stupidity really doesn't enter into the equation. People have a squalid little tale of romance, broken vows, and suicide. That's a hell of a diversion.

Edited by SFDanny
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@Megorova

We have gone over this before, and @corbon and @Alexis-something-Rose have provided the necessary quotes and arguments. So, let me just restate my belief there is no doubt Catelyn believes Jon is younger than Robb. Nor is there much of any doubt the rest of most of Westeros believes so as well.

Let me also not only agree that the absence of evidence is not evidence, but that using chapter sequence as a argument to support timeline sequence is an extremely faulty method to use in timeline questions. Chapters from later go back in time from the ones previous to them. We have to sort out the individual timelines and how they intersect to get any real understanding of sequence.

That being said, let me also say, I actually agree that it is likely that Jon is a little bit older than Robb. I just don't think the characters have obvious reasons to know this. I think Ned lies about this, and everyone is forced to accept his version without proof to the contrary.

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4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Let me also not only agree that the absence of evidence is not evidence

In GRRM's case sometimes the absence of evidence is an evidence. For example, when Ashara Dayne supposedly commited suicide, there was no body, the absence of her body is an evidence that she isn't dead.

Eventually GRRM will reveal Jon's actual age. I'm saying that Jon was born in September, and Dany in May or June, 8-9 months after Jon (what GRRM said). While Robb's birthday was either in October or November. Let's wait and see that I am/was right. ^_^

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55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

In GRRM's case sometimes the absence of evidence is an evidence. For example, when Ashara Dayne supposedly commited suicide, there was no body, the absence of her body is an evidence that she isn't dead.

When Martin tells us that Ashara’s body was never found that is indeed evidence. However the fact Bran doesn’t mention Robb’s 15th isn’t. That is only the absence of evidence.

55 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Eventually GRRM will reveal Jon's actual age. I'm saying that Jon was born in September, and Dany in May or June, 8-9 months after Jon (what GRRM said). While Robb's birthday was either in October or November. Let's wait and see that I am/was right. ^_^

Now, we agree, and I’ve reached the same conclusions for quite some time. I should say I have Jon born in the timeframe of anywhere from the end of August to early October. The overlap in October with Robb’s possible nameday makes it possible Robb is actually a little older.

Edited by SFDanny
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