R + L = J v.167

[corbon]

12 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

No, it's not. Her body could have easily been dragged by the current into the sea. She might have fed the fishes near the Arbor for all we know.

To be fair, the information that there was no body is evidence, of a kind, that she may not be dead after all. 
It creates a much stronger possibility that stories of her death are incorrect, than if we hadn't been informed that no body was found.

But this is not absence of evidence being evidence. Its an actual data point, evidence that the other evidence we have (rumours or tales) may be significantly less strong than it appears.

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Sorry, that's simply not true.  Harwin certainly states that the rumour around Winterfell was that Ned and Ashara's affair ended before Ned was betrothed to Cat. 

Harwin, nor his rumour, never addresses any end to it.

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That there was no stain on Ned's honor because whatever he did with Ashara ended before even his betrothal to Cat. 

There was no stain on Ned's honour to that particular part of any rumour. Other rumours, or parts of rumours, which may have stains were not addressed at all.

It is a fallacy, and blatantly incorrectly, to assume that rumours of Ned and Ashara romancing at Harrenhal are not separate from rumours of Ned and Ashara creating Jon. They may be connected, but they are two different things at different times.

12 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

The fact that the other rumour in Winterfell was that Ashara was Jon's mother certainly implies that at least some of the gossipers in Winterfell must have thought Jon was older.  The only one that we know of who definitely thinks Jon was younger than Robb is Cat.

And Robert. Ned implies it and Robert clearly takes up the implication. So anyone else who's been involved will have the same perspective.

Thats more indications than the other direction which has zero people even implying that Jon is older than Robb.

11 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And yet, I doubt that it nonetheless.  Ned tells Robert quite adamantly and hotly that he dishonored Cat before the eyes of gods and man while Cat was pregnant with his child.  We know Ned is loathe to tell lies.   Even when he had his confrontation with Cat about Jon's mother, Ned technically doesn't lie to her.  He tells her that Jon is his own blood and to leave it at that.

The fact that Ned is not a natural deceptor makes me question that he can put on a mummer's show in front of Robert and angrily rail about the dishonor he put upon himself and Cat unless it was true.

Since we have a good reason to disbelieve that Ned cheated on Cat and conceived Jon, we have to ask ourselves, in what other manner could Ned have dishonored himself and Cat in the eyes of god and man?  I think the answer is quite simple.  Ned's dishonor was his false affirmation of Jon as his son, which was made (like all affirmations in Westeros) before the eyes of gods and man.  

I agree, as it happens.
 

But Ned goes further than this, explicitly

Quote

"I had taken her to wife. She was carrying my child."

That is clearly a reference to the conception. By the time he publicly claimed Jon as his own at Winterfell, and committed his dishonor, Robb had already been born and Cat was no longer 'carrying' him.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Just like you have to read between the lines about what Ned tells Cat during their argument, you have to read between the lines about what he tells Robert during their argument.

I don't think that Ned really said that he conceived Jon after he left Cat pregnant with Robb.  Just like I don't think he told Cat during their argument that Jon was his son.  

By stating that he committed the dishonour after he married her, he is implying that Jon is younger than Robb. He didn;t directly address the conception, but his statement doesn;t work for when he met Cat at Winterfell.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think Ned truly believes that he dishonored Cat and himself.  And when his anger comes up, the truth comes out.  I think that Ned does believe that he dishonored himself and dishonored Cat but he believes that he caused this dinhoner when he made a false affirmation under oath that he was Jon's father.  Ned lets Robert assume that what he is referring to is an indiscretion with Wylla.

Agreed, more or less. I don't think there was any affirmative under oath or anything, just letting the world, especially Winterfellians and Cat, believe Jon was his son, does the trick for me.

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if that's the case, then I'm not sure we can read too much into Ned saying that he dishonored Cat while she was pregnant with Robb.  I don't think he's really trying to convey to Robert a specific time frame when an affair happened, because while Ned is angry and in the moment, he's really not referring to a false infedelity.  He's referring to a very real indescretion, when he falsely swears under oath to gods and man that he was Jon's father, an act which had reprecussions both towards him and his wife.

I don't agree that we can dismiss the obvious wider implications. Its clear that Robert takes the implication that its his marriage vows that Ned dishonoured, and its clear Ned reinforces that with his statement. We can't ignore that. 

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

That's because you guys are parsing the text way too fine.  Past the point of a legitimate meaning.

Cat goes through the following analysis:

1.  Ned would never speak of who Jon's mother was.

2.  But, the castle held no secrets.  Thus people were talking about who Jon's mother could be.

3.  She heard the tale of Ashara Dayne, and how Ned brought her the sword Dawn.  I.e. people are supplying a possible answer as to who they think Jon's mother is.

No, not ie. 
Its a separate rumour. It may be connected by others and spoken (or unspoken), it may be connected by Cat herself (probably not alone).

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

4.  She confronts Ned about the truth of it.  (what is it? we find out through Ned's reaction)

5.  Ned tells her never to ask him about Jon again.  So the truth that Cat confronts Ned with was whether Ashara was Ned's mother.

6.  After that the whispering about Ashara Dayne stopped.

No, after that all the whispering stopped. At least to Cat's knowledge. Not just the whispering about Ashara.

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It's absurd to think that people were whispering about Ned's affair with Ashara but it was only Cat who made the assumption that Ashara could be Jon's mother, especially when the entire context of the passage was Cat trying to figure out who Jon's mother was.

True.
But its not absurd to think that Cat, like others, may have put the two together. The fact is, that what she describes hearing is not the two together. Changing the fact just because Cat is likely not the only one who could see such a connection is not warranted.

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, corbon said:

That is clearly a reference to the conception. By the time he publicly claimed Jon as his own at Winterfell, and committed his dishonor, Robb had already been born and Cat was no longer 'carrying' him.

No, and that’s my point.  You’re assuming that Ned’s affirmation of Jon occurred at Winterfell.  I believe it more probable that Ned’s affirmation took place at Starfall.  He left Starfall with Jon as his son.

And if Ned truly believed that his actual dishonor lay in his false affirmation, then what Ned actually revealed here, is quite the opposite of what you suggest.  Instead, I think he reveals that Cat was still pregnant with Robb when Ned falsely affirmed Jon.  Thus Jon is in fact older than Robb.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

@corbon

As for your rest, we’ll have to agree to disagree.  I find it unlikely that the rumors would be so cleanly delineated like you suggest.  I would also note that Harwin never makes it exactly clear when Ned and Ashara’s romance would have ended.  Other than he seems to imply that by the time Ned was betrothed to Cat his relationship with Ashara was over.  He certainly says that their relationship began in Harrenhal, and you can make an argument that he is limiting their relationship to the time of the False Spring.  But who knows.

It’s also possible that Harwin is purposely altering the nature of the rumor to end the relationship before Ned was betrothed to Cat based in an effort to appease Arya.  All of this could be true.

But you have to remember, however, that I’m responding to your assertion that there is plenty of evidence that Robb is considered by all to be older than Jon.  Which kind of shifts the burden of proof a bit.  I’m well aware of the fact that Cat believes Robb is older than Jon, but I’m not aware of the evidence that all believed Robb to be older than Jon.  Maybe it has to do with some type of birth day calculation perhaps, those always gave me headaches.  But then on the other hand they don’t call them birth days do they?  They call them namedays.  Hmmm.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Megorova]

22 hours ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

About Jon's birth. The Battle of the Bells was in early 283 AC. Unless Lyanna gave birth prematurely or Ned decided to fudge up dates by a month or so (which is entirely possible), Jon couldn't have been born earlier than October since Catelyn says that she carried Robb to full term. That would put Dany's own birth either in June or July. And that's if the BotB took place in January. 

Jon's conception happened before the Battle of the Bells.

I calculated all movements of important characters from early 281 to Dany's birth, and it all fits.

Spoiler

I calculated distances and timelines starting from Jaime's knighting, after his confrontation with the Kingswood Brotherhood (1st April 281, day of Elia's Aegon and fAegon's conception), to Harrenhal's tournament, to Lyanna's kidnapping, Brandon's execution, the Battle at Gulltown, all other traveling and battles that happened in 282, all important events and traveling that took place in 283, and all the way to Dany's birth (in May or June of 284).

My estimates is that Harrenhal's tournament was held for 10 days from late October to early November of 281; Aegon was born in late December or in the middle of January of 282; Lyanna was kidnapped in first half of September, or in 20s; afterwards Lyanna and Rhaegar went to Starfall, where Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, 24th December; the Battle of the Bells happened in the middle of January; Ned's and Cat wedding was held in February; the Battle at Trident happened in July; the Sack of King's Landing happened in August, Dany was conceived in July or August of 283; Jon was born on 23rd of September; Dany was born in May or June of 284. The beginning of Robert's Rebellion is about 3-4 weeks after Lyanna's kidnapping (distance between Crossroads Inn and King's Landing is 14 days, and Harrenhal, from near which Lyanna was kidnapped, is not far from that inn), so the Rebellion started in October of 282. It lasted less than 12 months. The siege of Storm's End also lasted for less than 12 months. It started after the Battle at Ashford, which was the last battle of 282, and when wounded Robert went to hide to Stoney Sept, and Mace Tyrell went with his troops to Robert's castle. The Sack of KL happened in August, after that Ned went to Storm's End and ended its siege, which lasted for less than a year, from December of 282 to early September of 283. Then Ned went to Starfall, where he found Lyanna, after she gave birth to Jon, and Kingsguards departed thru Prince's Pass towards Dragonstone. Ned went after them and intercepted them at the Tower of Joy, which was given that name by Rhaegar, because that's the place where he got news that Lyanna's is pregnant, when he already departed from Starfall and was going to King's Landing, after Gerold Hightower found him at Starfall, when he was sent by Aerys after the Battle of the Bells.

Jon was conveived on Christmas Eve (because there's symbolical connection to Starfall, Dawn of Daynes/Azor Ahai's Lightbringer, etc.). Lyanna and Rhaegar eloped together in the middle of September, and they got to Starfall by 20s of December. Fullterm pregnancy, 40 weeks from Christmas is in 20s of September.

A year is ~53 weeks long. Christmas is on 52nd week. 20s of September are on 39th week. So from December 24th on week 52nd, it's exactly 40 weeks, a fulltermed pregnancy, to 23rd of September (Jon's birthday) or other 20th of September, which is on 39th week of a year.

Jon was born in 20s of September, because he is Libra, there's a symbolical connection that ties together three heads of the dragon - all three of them are Air signs of Zodiac, Dany is Gemini and Rhaego (who is alive) is Aquarius. I think that Jon was born on September 23rd, because it's a day of Autumnal Equinox, which is also symbolical. It's a day in which duration of the day and night are equal, but starting from that day, each next day of a year becomes shorter and nights become longer. So after AE-day, the "Long Night" came. Jon was born at Starfall, under the bleeding stars, like in the prophecy, and after his birth, each night became longer than the previous, like in the prophecy about Azor Ahai reborn.

The day of Jon's conception is special (Christmas), same as the day of his birth (Autumnal Equinox), the days of Dany's and Rhaego's conception and the days of their births are also some "special" days, like Equinoxes or Solstices, or some religious days (in Christianity or Paganism). Dany (Gemini) was born on May 21-June 21; Rhaego (Aquarius) was born on January 21-February 20. One of those days has some symbolical meaning, and that's the day of Dany's/Rhaego's birth.

Or maybe Jon was conceived on Winter Solstice, which in 1982 was on 22nd of December. It's likely that GRRM was using dates from 1982-83-84 for 282, 283 and 284, and 1999 for 299 (year of Rhaego's birth).

Edited August 6, 2020 by Megorova

[Frey family reunion]

Let me suggest this.  Let’s start with the rumors that Cersei throws in Ned’s face when he confronts her about her children.

Quote

“Honor,” she spat. “How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You’ve a bastard of your own, I’ve seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I’m told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole?“

So Cersei basically throws three possible rumors of Jon’s mother in Ned’s face:

1.  Whore.

2.  Dornish peasant, when Ned was fighting in the war.

3.  Ashara Dayne.

So let’s discuss the probable origins of where Cersei would have heard of these rumors.  

It’s doubtful that Cersei spent much time in Casterly Rock or in King’s Landing gossiping about Ned’s bastard.  It’s possible but it seems doubtful that this would have been a subject that would of either come up, or one she would have been very interested in at that time.  This quote also seems to suggest that Cersei might not have been aware of Ned’s bastard until she arrived at Winterfell.

So I think it’s more probable that Cersei heard gossip about Ned’s bastard while in Winterfell.  That is also the time frame when she seemed to have first noticed Jon.

Cersei spent a good amount of time in Winterfell, so it seems likely that she would have spent some time talking to some of the women in Winterfell gossiping about Ned’s bastard son.  

It’s also possible that she would have asked Robert about Ned’s son and if he knew who the mother was.  

So let’s start with the probable source of the first rumor.  That Jon’s mother was a whore.  Now it’s very possible that Cersei came up with that on her own.  Especially given her knowledge that Robert had probably left many a whore pregnant.  But assuming that she heard that rumor from somewhere, where would the likely source be?

I think it unlikely that she would have picked up that rumor from the ladies in Winterfell.  Certainly possible but unlikely.  I think it very possible however, that if she asked Robert about what he knew, this may have been the answer he gave.  

Quote

The king grinned. “She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour.“

Describing her for a wench and intimating that Ned would have only known her for an hour certainly seems to line up with Robert thinking that she was a whore.  After all Robert himself was very familiar with the idea of leaving bastards behind in whorehouses.  

So I think that leaves the other two rumors: Dornish peasant/Lady Ashara as tales that Cersei would have heard from the ladies in Winterfell.

Now obviously they wouldn’t have described Ned as burning down a holdfast.  I think that’s a detail that Cersei would have added on her own as she lashed out at Ned.  I think it more probable that the rumor she would have heard from some in Winterfell is that he got a peasant woman pregnant while he fought the war in Dorne.  

Now while I can’t rule out that she got the Dornish peasant theory from Robert, I can  safely rule out that she got the rumor about Ashara Dayne from Robert.  He seems completely unaware of that rumor.

So I think it’s also likely that Cersei’s source for that rumor came from the ladies at Winterfell as well. 

Which would imply that there were two distinct rumors in Winterfell.  One rumor being that Jon’s mom was a Dornish peasant.  And the other rumor was that Jon’s mother was the Lady Ashara Dayne.

Those in Winterfell who thought that Jon’s mother was a Dornish peasant must have also thought that Jon was younger than Robb.

However, those who thought that Jon’s mother was Ashara Dayne, probably (though admittedly not necessarily) thought that Jon was older than Robb.  After all if you look at the sequence of events, it seems much more probable that Ned’s interactions with Ashara Dayne would have occurred before his wedding to Cat and not after.  And that seems to be the gist of what Harwin was telling Arya.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

Jon's conception happened before the Battle of the Bells.

I calculated all movements of important characters from early 281 to Dany's birth, and it all fits.

  Reveal hidden contents

I calculated distances and timelines starting from Jaime's knighting, after his confrontation with the Kingswood Brotherhood (1st April 281, day of Elia's Aegon and fAegon's conception), to Harrenhal's tournament, to Lyanna's kidnapping, Brandon's execution, the Battle at Gulltown, all other traveling and battles that happened in 282, all important events and traveling that took place in 283, and all the way to Dany's birth (in May or June of 284).

My estimates is that Harrenhal's tournament was held for 10 days from late October to early November of 281; Aegon was born in late December or in the middle of January of 282; Lyanna was kidnapped in first half of September, or in 20s; afterwards Lyanna and Rhaegar went to Starfall, where Jon was conceived on Christmas Eve, 24th December; the Battle of the Bells happened in the middle of January; Ned's and Cat wedding was held in February; the Battle at Trident happened in July; the Sack of King's Landing happened in August, Dany was conceived in July or August of 283; Jon was born on 23rd of September; Dany was born in May or June of 284. The beginning of Robert's Rebellion is about 3-4 weeks after Lyanna's kidnapping (distance between Crossroads Inn and King's Landing is 14 days, and Harrenhal, from near which Lyanna was kidnapped, is not far from that inn), so the Rebellion started in October of 282. It lasted less than 12 months. The siege of Storm's End also lasted for less than 12 months. It started after the Battle at Ashford, which was the last battle of 282, and when wounded Robert went to hide to Stoney Sept, and Mace Tyrell went with his troops to Robert's castle. The Sack of KL happened in August, after that Ned went to Storm's End and ended its siege, which lasted for less than a year, from December of 282 to early September of 283. Then Ned went to Starfall, where he found Lyanna, after she gave birth to Jon, and Kingsguards departed thru Prince's Pass towards Dragonstone. Ned went after them and intercepted them at the Tower of Joy, which was given that name by Rhaegar, because that's the place where he got news that Lyanna's is pregnant, when he already departed from Starfall and was going to King's Landing, after Gerold Hightower found him at Starfall, when he was sent by Aerys after the Battle of the Bells.

Jon was conveived on Christmas Eve (because there's symbolical connection to Starfall, Dawn of Daynes/Azor Ahai's Lightbringer, etc.). Lyanna and Rhaegar eloped together in the middle of September, and they got to Starfall by 20s of December. Fullterm pregnancy, 40 weeks from Christmas is in 20s of September.

A year is ~53 weeks long. Christmas is on 52nd week. 20s of September are on 39th week. So from December 24th on week 52nd, it's exactly 40 weeks, a fulltermed pregnancy, to 23rd of September (Jon's birthday) or other 20th of September, which is on 39th week of a year.

Jon was born in 20s of September, because he is Libra, there's a symbolical connection that ties together three heads of the dragon - all three of them are Air signs of Zodiac, Dany is Gemini and Rhaego (who is alive) is Aquarius. I think that Jon was born on September 23rd, because it's a day of Autumnal Equinox, which is also symbolical. It's a day in which duration of the day and night are equal, but starting from that day, each next day of a year becomes shorter and nights become longer. So after AE-day, the "Long Night" came. Jon was born at Starfall, under the bleeding stars, like in the prophecy, and after his birth, each night became longer than the previous, like in the prophecy about Azor Ahai reborn.

The day of Jon's conception is special (Christmas), same as the day of his birth (Autumnal Equinox), the days of Dany's and Rhaego's conception and the days of their births are also some "special" days, like Equinoxes or Solstices, or some religious days (in Christianity or Paganism). Dany (Gemini) was born on May 21-June 21; Rhaego (Aquarius) was born on January 21-February 20. One of those days has some symbolical meaning, and that's the day of Dany's/Rhaego's birth.

Or maybe Jon was conceived on Winter Solstice, which in 1982 was on 22nd of December. It's likely that GRRM was using dates from 1982-83-84 for 282, 283 and 284, and 1999 for 299 (year of Rhaego's birth).

I'm unaware of any evidence that connects days in Westerosi history to significant dates in real world history, real world religious practices, or real world astrologies. Perhaps you have such evidence beyond just speculation? I'm not saying Martin couldn't have based his books on such things, but I doubt this is a consistent guide to his work.

I keep going up against such things as just trying to understand basic facts of the Westerosi calendar. Martin tells us that there are twelve turns of the moon, and each moon - we learn from Arya- has thirty days, but simple math puts that as a year of 360 days, not 365 or 366. I've speculated that it is likely Martin uses real world calendars as his method of keeping track of his fictional history, but that is just my own guess. If I'm right, there remains the problem of the missing five or six days each year. In short, I don't see how we can assume such one to one correspondence between Westeros and the real world.

I really don't agree with assuming, without evidence, that Martin is making his world conform to any particular religious or mystical beliefs. Does he borrow some themes from them? Absolutely, but assuming, for instance, Jon is conceived on Christmas because George thought that symbolism was important in his fictional world, is a huge leap without evidence.

I'd much rather we sort out the possible ranges for these Westerosi events based on the evidence Martin has actually given us instead of imposing connections we can't really soundly make. To me that means finding evidence from the books and what the author has said that gives us ranges of possibilities for when events occur.

I do agree with you that it is possible Jon was conceived in a late 282 to early 283 timeframe. Stating flatly he was conceived on Christmas seems just simple speculation.

[SFDanny]

34 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Let me suggest this.  Let’s start with the rumors that Cersei throws in Ned’s face when he confronts her about her children.

So Cersei basically throws three possible rumors of Jon’s mother in Ned’s face:

1.  Whore.

2.  Dornish peasant, when Ned was fighting in the war.

3.  Ashara Dayne.

So let’s discuss the probable origins of where Cersei would have heard of these rumors.  

It’s doubtful that Cersei spent much time in Casterly Rock or in King’s Landing gossiping about Ned’s bastard.  It’s possible but it seems doubtful that this would have been a subject that would of either come up, or one she would have been very interested in at that time.  This quote also seems to suggest that Cersei might not have been aware of Ned’s bastard until she arrived at Winterfell.

So I think it’s more probable that Cersei heard gossip about Ned’s bastard while in Winterfell.  That is also the time frame when she seemed to have first noticed Jon.

I think you've overlooked much more likely sources than gossip and Cersei supposedly questioning the small folk of Winterfell during her visit.

It is much more likely that Cersei gets her information from reports on Neds story investigated by those who question it. Tywin or Lord Varys are much better guesses for where her information comes from. Stannis also seems to have some information he has heard about Jon's mother given his "fishwife" comment and Lord Godric's tale. It is hard to believe Ned's story hasn't been heard and considered closely by his political enemies or competitors. While Ned stays isolated in Winterfell it is hardly a huge problem, but when Ned returns to King's Landing from Starfall and, especially, when he comes back as Hand of the King, all of this becomes extremely important. Cersei's time in Winterfell has little likely impact on this.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, SFDanny said:

I think you've overlooked much more likely sources than gossip and Cersei supposedly questioning the small folk of Winterfell during her visit.

It is much more likely that Cersei gets her information from reports on Neds story investigated by those who question it. Tywin or Lord Varys are much better guesses for where her information comes from. Stannis also seems to have some information he has heard about Jon's mother given his "fishwife" comment and Lord Godric's tale. It is hard to believe Ned's story hasn't been heard and considered closely by his political enemies or competitors. While Ned stays isolated in Winterfell it is hardly a huge problem, but when Ned returns to King's Landing from Starfall and, especially, when he comes back as Hand of the King, all of this becomes extremely important. Cersei's time in Winterfell has little likely impact on this.

No, I think that’s a much less likely source.  First you have to assume that there was some sort of investigation into Ned’s bastard, and there is zero evidence to that effect.  Then you would have to assume that this information would have been shared with Cersei for some reason.   There is nothing to indicate that Cersei was even attending any Small Council meetings at that time, or that Varys would have shared any “intel” with her about Jon Snow.  

As for Stannis’ comment on a “fishwife” that is a jape directed at Jon.

Quote

Stannis rubbed the back of his neck.  “You haggle like a crone with a  codfish, Lord Snow.  Did Ned Stark father you on some fishwife?”

That’s not any indication of any “intelligence” gathered regarding Jon Snow.

While it may be hard to believe, based on the hidden importance the readers have given regarding Jon’s parentage, there is nothing to indicate that anyone has spent any time seriously investigating the circumstances of Jon’s parentage.  

It’s much, much more likely that while Cersei was in Winterfell she engaged in gossip with the other ladies at Winterfell.  Or that Cersei’s servants she brought with her engaged in gossip with the servants at Winterfell and Cersei got the gossip from them.

ETA: I’m trying to imagine a scenario where Tywin summons Cersei to tell her: “It’s very important that I let you know, that based on the information we got about Ned’s bastard, the mother was either Ashara Dayne, a Dornish peasant woman, or a whore, I’ll update you if we learn any more”. 

Edited August 6, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Megorova]

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'm unaware of any evidence that connects days in Westerosi history to significant dates in real world history, real world religious practices, or real world astrologies. Perhaps you have such evidence beyond just speculation? I'm not saying Martin couldn't have based his books on such things, but I doubt this is a consistent guide to his work.

No, I don't have evidences, though there's too many similarities between Planetos and Earth for them to be coincidental, seems that GRRM did used Earth as a basis for Planetos, or a sort of a parallel version of it.

For example - the map of Planetos and Atlas of Earth - Westeros is Europe, Westerlands is Britain, The Reach is France, Dorne is Portugal, Spain and Italy, The North is Norway, Sweden and Finland, etc.; in Essos - the Dothraki Sea is Russia, Lhazar is Kazahstan, Red Weste is Mongolia, Great Moraq is India, Yi Ti is China, Leng is Japan, the Bleeding Sea is Bering Sea, Grey Waste is Canada, Land of Shrykes and Bloodless Cities is Unites States, Shadow Lands is Mexico, Ulthos is Southern America, Sothoryos is Africa.

Also GRRM wrote into the story a Harvest Moon and Hunter's Moon.

In case with Earth, Hunter's Moon for Northern Hemisphere is in October, and for Southern Hemisphere is in March. After Joffrey's death, in Cersei III, chapter 12 of AFFC, - "When Cersei looked up she saw the tower's crenellated battlements gnawing at a hunter's moon." It was some time after Joffrey's death. He died on first month of 300 AC, and that scene with the hunter's moon happened several months after his death. He died on January 1st, and that scene was happening in March. Also it seems that King's Landing is located in Southern Hemisphere of Planetos, while Winterfell (based on the time of their Harvest Moon) is located in Northern Hemisphere. According to Wikipedia a Harvest Moon is the full moon closest to the autumnal equinox. Thus, if GRRM is using Harvest Moon, as part of his story, then the autumnal equinox also does exist in that world.

The Harvest Feast seems to be a parallel to Earth's Thanksgiving. The Tournament at Harrenhal, that was held in the end of October - beginning of November, is a parallel to Halloween, with the Knight of the Laughing Tree as Lyanna's trick or treat "costume".

Also there's a red wanderer.

"Among the free folk, the red wanderer is known as the Thief.^[2] Supposedly when the Thief is visible within the constellation of the Moonmaid, it is a good time for a man to steal a woman.^[1]

Ygritte tells Jon Snow that the Thief was bright in the Moonmaid the night he captured her.^[1]"

When did Jon kidnapped Ygritte, was it close to a years beginning? Could it have been on 14th of February? Saint Valentines Day?

It happened in ACOK. Mormont's great ranging departed from Castle Black soon after appearance of the Bleeding Star, which was at about that time, when it was Joffrey's birthday, and his birthday seems to be in late January or early February (that's when Rhaego was born, and Rhaego is Aquarius).

Ned was executed in late 298, close to the year's end. In span between his execution and Joffrey's birthday of 299, Sansa was locked in her room, without bathing and nearly without eating. Even though she's young and healthy, it's unlikely that she could have lasted like that for more than a month or so. Thus, Joffrey's birthday was either in late January or early February. Also, while Sansa was locked in her room, her own birthday happened then, between Ned's execution and Joffrey's/Rhaego's birthday. And later in 299 (near the end of that year, shortly prior the Purple Wedding, which was held on January 1st), when she got married with Tyrion, he asked her how old is she, and she said that her 13th birthday will be after the moon's turn. So, either her birthday is in December or in early January, earlier than Joffrey's.

Based on the time of Ned's execution, Sansa's birthday, Joffrey's birthday, etc., it seems highly likely that Jon kidnapped Yigritte in the middle of second month, on Valentine's Day.

If my calculations are correct then GRRM used in his books Halloween, Thanksgiving, Valentine's Day, and probably some other "special" days too.

4 hours ago, SFDanny said:

I'd much rather we sort out the possible ranges for these Westerosi events based on the evidence Martin has actually given us instead of imposing connections we can't really soundly make. To me that means finding evidence from the books and what the author has said that gives us ranges of possibilities for when events occur.

I do agree with you that it is possible Jon was conceived in a late 282 to early 283 timeframe. Stating flatly he was conceived on Christmas seems just simple speculation.

I started my calculations based on one fact (or rather combination of three facts) - according to GRRM, age difference between Jon and Dany is 8-9 months, he was born in 283, and she was born in 284.

Using solely that information I placed the range of their birthdays - for Jon between March and December of 283, for Dany between January and September of 284. Then I narrowed down those ranges, by using what was known about events and timing of Robert's Rebellion, relocation of characters in span of Rebellion, distances and time required to travel between important locations, etc., etc., etc. In the end I narrowed down the range for Jon to ninth-tenth month of 283, and Dany's, that was born 8-9 months after him, to fifth-seventh month of 284.

Though, with inclusion of information, provided by GRRM, about when in the year is Dany's birthday:

- That she got married to Khal Drogo approximately 6 months after her 13th birthday.

- That she realised that she was pregnant on the day of her 14th birthday.

- When Ned and Robert got information about Dany's pregnancy.

Whoever delivered that information to Varys, had to travel back from where Drogo's khalasar was at that time (traveling from Pentos towards Vaes Dothrak). That messenged had to go back all that way, that khalasar had traveled east after the wedding. Because there are no RavenMail in Essos, so information could have been delivered only via messengers. And it took several months for that delivery-guy to get to Varys. And at the time when Varys sent that information to King Robert, Ned and his daughters were near Darry castle, traveling to King's Landing. And we know approximate duration of that voyage (based on Ned's, Cat's and Tyrion's POVs). If we know for how long lasted Ned's journey from Winterfell to King's Landing, then we also know approximate duration of Robert's journey from King's Landing to Winterfell. And we know that he departed from KL soon after Jon Arryn's death, and that Jon Arryn died 14 days after Joffrey's birthday, and we know when approximately is Joffrey's birthday/same as Rhaego's birthday.

- We know approximate duration of Dany's journey from the site of Rhaego's birth/Drogo's death to Quarth.

Dany turned 15 years old on the road between Vaes Tolor and arriving to Quarth.

Joffrey's birthday, and thus also Rhaego's birthday, is either in January or February. Dany's khalasar traveled for 3-4 months after Drogo's funeral. That eliminates July as possible month of Dany's birth. Thus, she was born in May-June. Which also eliminates October as possible month of Jon's birth. Thus, the only possible month of Jon's birth that was left, is September.

Let's try a different approach. Jon couldn't have been born in November or December, because for those months to be months of his birth, he was supposed to be conceived in the middle of March the latest, or in the middle of February as the earliest. If Rhaegar departed from Dorne too late after February-March, then there wouldn't have been enough time to get to King's Landing, and then to Trident, and then for the Sack of King's Landing to happen (that happened less than 9 months prior Dany's birth), and for Ned to go to Storm's End and then to Lyanna, when she gave birth to Jon - for all of that to be in time to happen still in 283, and for Dany's birth, that happened in 284, to happen not too late or too early in 284 <- because the day of her birthday is tied to her realisation that she's pregnant (for her 14th birthday), to her arrival to Quarth (for her 15th), and it didn't happened in first one-four months of those years* (298 and 299), and no later than 7th month (if her people traveled thru the Red Waste for longer than 3-4 months then they wouldn't have survived. Also Dany's march thru Slaver's Bay places her birthday in first half of a year. Also in 300 her 16th birthday didn't happened yet, and people of Volantis planned to begin their rebellion in June, and it haven't started yet, so by the end of ADWD, it isn't June yet). *Ned and the girls weren't yet on their way to King's Landing in January-April of 298 (that's when Ned got news about Dany's pregnancy, which happened months after her 14th birthday. The messenger needed several months to deliver that info to Varys). For them to begin that voyage, first they had to prepare for it, and those preparations lasted close to a month, and prior those preparations, Robert and his family had to arrive to Winterfell from King's Landing, and for them to depart from King's Landing, first Jon Arryn had to die, and he died 14 days after Joffrey's birthday, and we know when approximately is Joffrey's birthday, based on events that happened between Ned's execution and the appearace of the Bleeding Star above King's Landing on the day of Joffreys' birthday in 299.

So, even though GRRM carefully tried not to reveal too much information, what info he did gave, is enough to figure out when Dany and Jon were born.

[corbon]

15 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

No, and that’s my point.  You’re assuming that Ned’s affirmation of Jon occurred at Winterfell.  I believe it more probable that Ned’s affirmation took place at Starfall.  He left Starfall with Jon as his son.

Not quite. I'm not assuming that there was any 'affirmation' of Jon. Period. Nothing formal in any way at all. There is no indication at any time in any way of any such 'event'.

Instead I'm assuming Ned just treated Jon as his son and instructed others to do so the same as and when necessary.

Thus his dishonouring Cat in the sight f gods and men happens when he gets to Winterfell. He's not done anything public or formal at Starfall - why would he? I greatly doubt he does anything public or formal at Winterfell either, but the mere fact of him having Jon treated as his son is in effect dishonouring both himself and Cat. At starfall, its much less of a thing. But at Winterfell thats a big deal.

15 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

And if Ned truly believed that his actual dishonor lay in his false affirmation, then what Ned actually revealed here, is quite the opposite of what you suggest.  Instead, I think he reveals that Cat was still pregnant with Robb when Ned falsely affirmed Jon.  Thus Jon is in fact older than Robb.

You'll have to show an affirmation event.

You can't.

15 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

@corbon

As for your rest, we’ll have to agree to disagree.  I find it unlikely that the rumors would be so cleanly delineated like you suggest. 

If you examine them as individual things, its quite clear and obvious they are individual things. Its only because you've already tied them i your mind that you can't separate them.

15 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I would also note that Harwin never makes it exactly clear when Ned and Ashara’s romance would have ended.  

There is no extended romance. Harwin's entire 'rumour' that he heard, and doesn't believe, is about a thing at Harrenhal, nowhere else.

Quote

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

'Nought like a tourney', 'words whispered in a tent', 'spring had come'. 
The entire circumference of what Harwin is talking about is the Tourney at Harrenhal, not before, not after.
The rest is bullshit people invent to grasp at theories that have no real basis.

13 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Let me suggest this.  Let’s start with the rumors that Cersei throws in Ned’s face when he confronts her about her children.

So Cersei basically throws three possible rumors of Jon’s mother in Ned’s face:

1.  Whore.

2.  Dornish peasant, when Ned was fighting in the war.

3.  Ashara Dayne.

So let’s discuss the probable origins of where Cersei would have heard of these rumors.  

No. This is silly.

These are not a bunch of separate rumours Cersei has heard, that she's counting off.
They are simply wild stabs in the dark she's making up from her own general knowledge.
She was familiar with the court and keeping tabs on court machinations and people, especially around Rhaegar whom she hoped to be married to. No doubt she was aware of Ashara's demise from court and the general rumour of her death situation. She may have even heard a rumour connecting Ashara to Ned, either from Harrenhal or Ned's visit, or she might have just done that herself, I don;t think it matters in the slightest either way. The other two options are clearly just 'possibilities' that are generic for a Lord in Ned's situation.

I think further analysis of the genesis of these ideas is simply people trying to be so clever they can't see their own foolishness - which can happen to me too, nothing personal here. 

[Frey family reunion]

13 hours ago, corbon said:

Not quite. I'm not assuming that there was any 'affirmation' of Jon. Period. Nothing formal in any way at all. There is no indication at any time in any way of any such 'event'.

Instead I'm assuming Ned just treated Jon as his son and instructed others to do so the same as and when necessary.

Thus his dishonouring Cat in the sight f gods and men happens when he gets to Winterfell. He's not done anything public or formal at Starfall - why would he? I greatly doubt he does anything public or formal at Winterfell either, but the mere fact of him having Jon treated as his son is in effect dishonouring both himself and Cat. At starfall, its much less of a thing. But at Winterfell thats a big deal.

Of course he did, that's what gives Jon a legal status and protection.  He swore an affirmation probably in front of a septon that Jon was his son.  That's what it means to be formally acknowledged.  It's a legal status.  It's probably one of the promises he made Lyanna.  In the law of Westeros it's what makes Jon his son, (it also makes Ned's biological paternity fairly irrelelvant at least in regards to Jon's legal status). 

This is why his dishonor occurs in the sight of gods and man, he made a formal acknowledgment in front of a Septon.  It's highly doubtful that he would have waited until he got to Winterfell, because what if he died en route, and Jon survived?  Then Jon loses any legal protection.  He would have made the formal acknowledgment at the first opportunity, which would have been Starfall.   

13 hours ago, corbon said:

'Nought like a tourney', 'words whispered in a tent', 'spring had come'. 
The entire circumference of what Harwin is talking about is the Tourney at Harrenhal, not before, not after.
The rest is bullshit people invent to grasp at theories that have no real basis.

I would argue that the entire False Spring is probably open to the time period of the romance.  But I do agree with this sentiment.  Which is why it's proof that some in Winterfell also probably believe that Jon must be older than Robb.  

I also, however, acknowledge, that Harwin could be tailoring the tale based on his audience.  And ending the romance prior to Ned's betrothal to try and appease Arya.  That's possible as well.  For all I know, the rumor that Harwin heard is that Ned's affair with Ashara lasted beyond Ned's betrothal or perhaps even beyond his marriage to Cat, but Harwin changes that aspect of the tale to not upset Arya.

13 hours ago, corbon said:

No. This is silly.

These are not a bunch of separate rumours Cersei has heard, that she's counting off.
They are simply wild stabs in the dark she's making up from her own general knowledge.
She was familiar with the court and keeping tabs on court machinations and people, especially around Rhaegar whom she hoped to be married to. No doubt she was aware of Ashara's demise from court and the general rumour of her death situation. She may have even heard a rumour connecting Ashara to Ned, either from Harrenhal or Ned's visit, or she might have just done that herself, I don;t think it matters in the slightest either way. The other two options are clearly just 'possibilities' that are generic for a Lord in Ned's situation.

I think further analysis of the genesis of these ideas is simply people trying to be so clever they can't see their own foolishness - which can happen to me too, nothing personal here. 

Cersei asking whether Jon's mom was a whore could be Cersei taking a wild stab.  I stated that up above.  But the mother being a Dornish peasant or the mother being Ashara Dayne are too specific for Cersei to have just come up with those on her own.  Those are rumors that Cersei heard.

To think that in the time that Cersei spent in Winterfell that she would  not have been tuned in to the castle gossip is absurd.  After all she can't fuck Jaime in an abandoned tower every waking moment, she has to find other things to do to pass the time in that dreary castle.  And for ladies in castles and court, gossip is one of the major pastimes.  

It's also highly doubtful that Cersei would have had Ned's bastard on her radar at all until she arrived at Winterfell.  While this group here seems to assume that everyone is scrambling around trying to find a possible Rhaegar bastard or child of some secret wedding between Rhaegar and Lyanna, that doesn't appear to be the case at all.

The only bastards that Cersei probably ever thought about were the bastards that her loving husband probably left scattered around the kingdom.  She wouldn't have given two cents about Ned's bastard to have given it any thought.  At least prior to her trip to Winterfell.

It's certainly not realistic to think that she would have been gossiping around the court in King's Landing to come up with a theory that Ned impregnated a Dornish peasant.  It might be more realistic to think that she would have heard gossip about Ashara Dayne just because Ashara was a fairly notable Lady, who perished in a fairly notable fashion.  But the fact that Robert seems to be obvlivious over this makes me doubt that the gossip in King's Landing was that Ned impregnated Ashara and was raising her child at Winterfell.  Ned's slaying of Arthur Dayne seems fairly widely known, and according to the Worldbook it doesn't appear that a child is involved in the official story.  I think it much more likely that the rumor was that Ashara lept from her tower because Ned killed her brother. 

No, the only realistic possibility is that Cersei only really takes an interest in Jon when she arrives at Winterfell.  And there are two reasons that Jon would have probably peaked Cersei's interest.

The first is that Jon's priveledged status at Winterfell was probably somewhat unique.  Cersei's own strong opinions about allowing husbands to bring their bastards to court would have probably caused her to have honed in on this.  And secondly, she probably picked up on the distress that Jon's presence caused Catelyn.  I can see Cersei engaging in a bit of schadenfreude over this.  This would have piqued Cersei's interest enough to inquire a bit more about Jon, and why Ned was giving the lad such a favored status.

So Cersei hears the two rumors that seem circulate in Winterfell, that Jon's mother was a commoner, a Dornish peasant.  Or a rumor that was kept more on the down low due to Ned (and probably also due to Cat) that Ashara was Jon's mother.  

So she then throws the Winterfell gossip in Ned's face when he (in her mind) tries to shame her by confronting her about her own infidelity.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Cersei asking whether Jon's mom was a whore could be Cersei taking a wild stab.  I stated that up above.  But the mother being a Dornish peasant or the mother being Ashara Dayne are too specific for Cersei to have just come up with those on her own.  Those are rumors that Cersei heard.

Cersei thought that Jon's mother was either Ashara Dayne or a Dornish peasant. Robert thought that Jon's mother was Wylla, a serving woman from Starfall. Catelyn thought that either Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne, or if otherwise, then she had no idea who his mother could have been. Those three thought that the mother was from Dorne, because that's from where Ned brought Jon, after the war ended.

Though, there's another group of people, who think otherwise. People from Sisters Islands think that Jon's mother was a fisherman's daughter, and that Jon was conceived in the beginning of Robert's Rebellion, when Ned was trying to get from Gulltown to White Harbor. Those people lived closer to The North, so unlike Cersei, they known more information about Jon. It's likely that some of those people visited Winterfell during Greyjoy Rebellion, or on some other occasion, because their overlord was married with Ned's sister-in-law. They were Jon Arryn's bannermen. And it is known that Catelyn and Lysa saw each other several (5 years) prior events of AGOT. Thus, it's likely that Lysa visited Cat at Winterfell, while Ned, Robert and Jon Arryn were fighting against Ironborn. And some of Jon's people were staying with Lysa, while she was at Winterfell.

Those people know Jon's actual age (they have met him), they know that he was conceived in the beginning of Rebellion, still in 282, not in 283. Thus, based on what they know, about the timing of Jon's birth, and thus also about the possible timing of his conception, they think that the mother was that fisherman's daughter, because that's with whom Ned was at the time when Jon was conceived. In December of 282.

Stannis also thinks that Jon's mother is a fishwife. Because Stannis knows one of those people from Sisters Island - Godric Borell.

"According to Lord Godric Borrell, the daughter of the fisherman who brought Eddard from the Fingers across the Bite to the Three Sisters at the beginning of Robert's Rebellion gave birth to Eddard's bastard son, and according to Godric, it had been she who gave Jon his name, in honor of Jon Arryn.^[29]"

"During Robert's Rebellion, Eddard Stark washed up on Sweetsister while trying to sail to the north to raise his banners. Godric's father, Lord Borrell, could easily have turned Eddard over to King Aerys II Targaryen for a reward. Godric was in attendance when his father instead freed Ned.^[1]

Because the Three Sisters have long tolerated smugglers, Lord Stannis Baratheon, master of ships for King Robert I Baratheon, once sent a fleet to Sisterton without Godric's leave and made him hang a dozen friends. Stannis threatened to hang Godric as well should some ship sink because the Night Lamp had gone black.^[1]"

@SFDanny

After Ned's wedding with Catelyn, he went south. And Three Sisters are located north from Riverrun, near The Neck. Those islanders, based on Jon's age, believe that his mother is a fisherman's daughter from Sweetsister. Ned had no contact with her after his wedding with Cat. She was in northern direction, and he went south. The only time when they were in contact, is in the beginning of Rebellion, in late 282. Or, even if Ned went again thru that area, on his way from The North to Stoney Sept, still that was BEFORE his wedding with Cat.

After Stoney Sept, and until the end of the Battle at Trident, Ned and Robert were staying together. So Robert knew that Jon couldn't have been conceived in that time period. Thus, Jon was conceived before the Battle of the Bells, and before Ned's wedding.

Thus, Jon is older than Robb.

[Frey family reunion]

26 minutes ago, Megorova said:

Stannis also thinks that Jon's mother is a fishwife. Because Stannis knows one of those people from Sisters Island - Godric Borell.

Seriously, y’all have to stop using that as a legitimate piece of information about Jon’s possible origin.  Stannis, believe it or not, was making a joke/insult to Jon because Jon was pissing him off.

Edited August 7, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Seriously, y’all have to stop using that as a legitimate piece of information about Jon’s possible origin.  Stannis, believe it or not, was making a joke/insult to Jon because Jon was pissing him off.

What is the source of Cersei's information that Jon's mother is a Dornishwoman? Who is the source of Catelyn's information that Ashara Dayne was Jon's mother? Who specifically? -> GRRM didn't wrote it, on purpose.

Information that Jon's mother was a fisherman's daughter, at least is from a named source - Godric Borell.

And Stannis could have used any other jape to insult Jon, not necessary that one, not necessary something about his mother, and not necessary about his mother being a fishwife, if he didn't believed that Jon's mother was a fisherman's daughter.

"You haggle like a crone with a codfish, Lord Snow. Did Ned Stark father you on some fishwife?" - it's not some popular saying in Westeros, "haggle like a crone with a codfish" was used in ASOIAF only once.

For example, he could have called Jon a leech or a pit bull, with the same result. Instead he had chosen to say "you haggle like a crone with a codfish", to be able to naturally insert into their conversation mentioning about Jon's fish-mother, and to remind Jon that he is a bastard, and that he shouldn't talk with the King like he did.

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Of course he did, that's what gives Jon a legal status and protection.  He swore an affirmation probably in front of a septon that Jon was his son.  That's what it means to be formally acknowledged.  It's a legal status.  It's probably one of the promises he made Lyanna.  In the law of Westeros it's what makes Jon his son, (it also makes Ned's biological paternity fairly irrelelvant at least in regards to Jon's legal status).

This is why his dishonor occurs in the sight of gods and man, he made a formal acknowledgment in front of a Septon.  It's highly doubtful that he would have waited until he got to Winterfell, because what if he died en route, and Jon survived?  Then Jon loses any legal protection.  He would have made the formal acknowledgment at the first opportunity, which would have been Starfall.

It is obvious Ned actually formally acknowledged Jon as his natural son - else he wouldn't have been a Snow nor the Bastard of Winterfell. You cannot create a noble bastard 'informally'. Ned cannot treat Jon as his son on an informal basis - that would be like Corlys Velaryon treated the Hulls. He may have been their father but he never acknowledged them and thus he isn't their legal father.

Ned definitely did acknowledge Jon Snow as his son - and he went much further than that, treating him pretty much like a trueborn son.

Bastards are a distasteful thing in Westeros outside Dorne. Even Robert is ashamed by the many bastards he produces and doesn't want to see or interact with them. Hence, any man acknowledging a bastard is not going to face any challenges on this matter. You don't have to prove that a child is your bastard since nobody in their right mind would admit they have a bastard if that weren't the case.

And nobody gives a rat's ass about bastards in this world, either. Littlefinger can pass Sansa as his bastard daughter and nobody sees through this lie or investigates her background. Roose Bolton can bring a baseborn bastard rumored to have poisoned his trueborn half-brother to prominence at the Dreadfort, and folks in Winterfell have never seen the man nor a description of his looks.

Bastards are a completely irrelevant topic since they are, legal nonentities.

As a character, Jon Snow is only relevant and in danger from Robert if he and the world knew/believed that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married because only then could the boy become a pretender to the Iron Throne. Nobody would give shit about Rhaegar's bastard - not Robert and not any Targaryen loyalist. Only then does it make real sense that Lya feared for the boy's life and that Ned would take it upon himself to lie to his wife, children, and the world about his nephew.

In that sense, this really makes sense:

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

It's also highly doubtful that Cersei would have had Ned's bastard on her radar at all until she arrived at Winterfell.  While this group here seems to assume that everyone is scrambling around trying to find a possible Rhaegar bastard or child of some secret wedding between Rhaegar and Lyanna, that doesn't appear to be the case at all.

Although we have to keep in mind that there is no reason whatsoever to assume Ned ever publicly presented his bastard to anyone outside Winterfell/the North. Still, once Robert heard that Ned had fathered a bastard who was growing up at Winterfell Cersei - as Robert's wife - may have heard some rumors about this. But it would have been as interesting to her as stories about Manderly or Arryn or Hightower bastards.

But at that time she could have heard the Ashara Dayne story, which seems to go back to Harrenhal and many people - including Westermen and Stormlanders - were at Harrenhal.

Depending what Robert knew/believed about Ashara's child and death he, too, could originally have believed Ashara was the mother of Ned's bastard - until Ned and Robert spoke about the mother of his bastard and Ned corrected that belief.

But I don't think Cersei or anyone showed any particular interest in Jon. He is just a bastard, so who the hell cares? She noted his presence, but Jon wasn't allowed to eat with the Starks or hang out with the highborn folk. He watched Joff and Robb and Bran and Tommen in the yard, but apparently never spend any time in their company ... and even less in the company of the adults. It would surprise me if Jaime, Cersei, Robert, or any of their party (Tyrion aside) ever spoke so much as a word with Jon - or if they did, then they would have treated him like a servant. Something along the lines of 'Tell Lord/Lady Stark this or that' or asking directions: 'Where the hell is the next privy here!'

 

[Frey family reunion]

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

It is obvious Ned actually formally acknowledged Jon as his natural son - else he wouldn't have been a Snow nor the Bastard of Winterfell. You cannot create a noble bastard 'informally'. Ned cannot treat Jon as his son on an informal basis - that would be like Corlys Velaryon treated the Hulls. He may have been their father but he never acknowledged them and thus he isn't their legal father.

It's basically the difference between Mya Stone and Edric Storm.  Robert informally recognized Mya as his daughter but he never forrmally acknowledged her.  Since Edric's mom was a "maiden"  and daughter of House Florent, Robert was pressured into formally acknowledging Edric Storm.  It seems fairly clear that Jon Snow's status is akin to Edric's and not Mya's.  This is also I'm sure partly why Cat feels so threatened by Jon.

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Bastards are a completely irrelevant topic since they are, legal nonentities.

I think unacknowledged bastards are, but I do think acknowledged bastards do have certain rights.  I cant' find it right now, but I could have sworn there is a So Spake Martin talking about the legal rights of acknowledged bastards.  If memory serves they can inherit, but only if there are no other lawful heirs.

If you recall when all the male heirs of House Darry were wiped out, Varys brought up the fact that there was a "Bastard of Darry" still around.  

40 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As a character, Jon Snow is only relevant and in danger from Robert if he and the world knew/believed that Rhaegar and Lyanna were married because only then could the boy become a pretender to the Iron Throne. Nobody would give shit about Rhaegar's bastard - not Robert and not any Targaryen loyalist. Only then does it make real sense that Lya feared for the boy's life and that Ned would take it upon himself to lie to his wife, children, and the world about his nephew.

Well assuming that Rhaegar is the father, I'm not sure that this would be the only reason that Lyanna would want Jon to be acknowledged.  Like I indicated above, acknowledged bastards do have certain rights and protections that unacknowledged bastards don't.  So if Lyanna wanted Jon protected an acknowledgment by the Lord of one of the major Houses would have gone a long way in protecting Jon.

And it's not just a protection from obvious enemies, but it would serve as a potential protection from Ned's new wife as well.  

Edited August 7, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

52 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Although we have to keep in mind that there is no reason whatsoever to assume Ned ever publicly presented his bastard to anyone outside Winterfell/the North. Still, once Robert heard that Ned had fathered a bastard who was growing up at Winterfell Cersei - as Robert's wife - may have heard some rumors about this. But it would have been as interesting to her as stories about Manderly or Arryn or Hightower bastards.

Yes that's my point.  Jon would have never been anywhere near Cersei's radar until Cersei arrived at Winterfell.  And even then Cersei would have noticed Jon as a curiousity like when the Targaryen Prince invited his ape to sit at the dinner table.  

52 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

But at that time she could have heard the Ashara Dayne story, which seems to go back to Harrenhal and many people - including Westermen and Stormlanders - were at Harrenhal.

Depending what Robert knew/believed about Ashara's child and death he, too, could originally have believed Ashara was the mother of Ned's bastard - until Ned and Robert spoke about the mother of his bastard and Ned corrected that belief.

All of this is certainly possible.  But outside of Cersei's comment to Ned the only place that seems to link Ashara with Ned's bastard is Winterfell.  Even Edric Dayne didn't hear or at least repeat any rumors about Jon being Ashara's son, despite the fact that he knew they were in a relationship.  From what I gather the story outside of Winterfell pretty much begins and ends with Ned killing Arthur and returning Dawn to Starfall culminating in Ashara's death.  

Now we do have that comment from Barristan about Ashara being dishonored and his belief that losing her child was one of the factors that led to her suicide.  But he seems firmly of the belief that she miscarried a daughter.  

So I do wonder if Cersei was familiar before travelling to Winterfell with the main story concerning Ned killing Arthur and Ashara killing herself over the grief of losing her brother.  And when she arrived at Winterfell she hears the rumor of Jon being Ashara's son.  Which is why Cersei asked Ned which was it?  Did your ex girlfirend kill herself because you killed her brother or because you stole her child?

Edited August 7, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

It's basically the difference between Mya Stone and Edric Storm.  Robert informally recognized Mya as his daughter but he never forrmally acknowledged her.  Since Edric's mom was a "maiden"  and daughter of House Florent, Robert was pressured into formally recognizing Edric Storm.  It seems fairly clear that Jon Snow's status is akin to Edric's and not Mya's.  This is also I'm sure partly why Cat feels so threatened by Jon.

Mya is a Stone. She was formally acknowledged, too. Her mother was a commoner, so she would have never been called 'Stone' if her father hadn't been a nobleman. Robert treated Mya as his daughter, visited her, hung out with her, people know she is his daughter. He just ignored her later on.

Edric is different because his mother is a noblewoman herself and thus Robert was forced to provide for Edric in a proper manner befitting a royal bastard of high birth. Even more so, considering that his mother was kin to Robert's own sister-in-law.

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think unacknowledged bastards are, but I do think acknowledged bastards do have certain rights.  I cant' find it right now, but I could have sworn there is a So Spake Martin talking about the legal rights of acknowledged bastards.  If memory serves they can inherit, but only if there are no other lawful heirs.

They can, if steps for that are taken, i.e. if the lord/knight in question names them their heir, or if his liege or the king ends up resolving a disputed succession by handing castle/title to said bastard. We see this when the Starks discuss the Hornwood succession and Bran suggests Larence Snow.

But if a lord dies with an army of acknowledged bastards but has named his third or fourth cousin his heir then his lands will go to that guy. Nobody seriously considers the claims of bastards when other kin are around. Nobody thinks Edric Storm could be king before Stannis or Renly, for instance, nobody even considered Jon Snow as a claimant for Winterfell while people still believed all of Ned's trueborn sons were around, etc.

To stand a chance to win against trueborn nobles bastards do have to be legitimized ... and even then you have to fight, especially if you are baseborn on your mother's side. Alyn of Hull was a legitimized bastard and the chosen heir of the Sea Snake, and he still had to fight his cousins to secure his position as Lord of Driftmark ... because he was commoner on his mother's side.

Or take the Sand Snakes - even in (supposedly) tolerant Dorne, Arianne and Oberyn Martell cannot/do not marry bastards, nor are Oberyn's daughters ever considered as potential claimants for Sunspear and Dorne - especially not Obara, the eldest, who is the daughter of a common whore.

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well assuming that Rhaegar is the father, I'm not sure that this would be the only reason that Lyanna would want Jon to be acknowledged.  Like I indicated above, acknowledged bastards do have certain rights and protections that unacknowledged bastards don't.  So if Lyanna wanted Jon protected an acknowledgment by the Lord of one of the major Houses would have gone a long way in protecting Jon.

And it's not just a protection from obvious enemies, but it would serve as a potential protection from Ned's new wife as well.  

Ned could have just as well raised Jon as Lya's bastard by Rhaegar. He could have raised him with his children and he could have been as close with them as he was as their half-brother ... with the extended benefit that Cat could indeed have been a surragate mother for him. After all, as Lya's bastard Jon would have been no danger to her children at all.

And Ned certainly could have taken in Jon as Lya's bastard the same way Tywin is providing for Joy Hill.

If Lya is afraid for her child's life when she is dying, she must have a reason to assume that Robert/the Lannisters might view her son the same way they viewed Rhaegar's children by Elia. And since those children weren't royal bastards but Rhaegar's trueborn children I don't think it makes sense to jump to the conclusion that Robert/Tywin would not be able to make that distinction.

I mean, nobody thinks Stannis has to kill Cersei's children and Edric Storm to ensure he can sit the Iron Throne in peace.

This gets even more glaring in light of the fact that Jon Snow could never really be Rhaegar's acknowledged child considering the man likely never saw Lya's child. He may have even died before the boy was born.

Thus Lya and Ned could have even spun the tale that the boy was Lya's natural son by an unknown father - with Rhaegar dead, nobody can 'prove' the child had a Targaryen father, much less Rhaegar, even more since Jon has literally nothing in common with Rhaegar.

Such things can only then not fly if people are pretty much convinced that Lya and Rhaegar were married and/or that Rhaegar impregnated Lyanna before his death. If nobody knew that, then Lya's child could have been Arthur's, Oswell's, or the child of some village septon or hedge knight.

[Frey family reunion]

2 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Mya is a Stone. She was formally acknowledged, too. Her mother was a commoner, so she would have never been called 'Stone' if her father hadn't been a nobleman. Robert treated Mya as his daughter, visited her, hung out with her, people know she is his daughter. He just ignored her later on.

Not according to Sansa:

Quote

Brune would be a good match for a bastard girl like Mya Stone, she thought.  It might be different if her father had acknowledged her, but he never did.  And Maddy says she's no maid either.

 

[Lord Varys]

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

All of this is certainly possible.  But outside of Cersei's comment to Ned the only place that seems to link Ashara with Ned's bastard is Winterfell.  Even Edric Dayne didn't hear any rumors about Jon being Ashara's son, despite the fact that he knew they were in a relationship.  From what I gather the story outside of Winterfell pretty much begins and ends with Ned killing Arthur and returning Dawn to Starfall culminating in Ashara's death.  

Edric doesn't need that story since he is much closer to 'the truth' than any of the other characters.

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

Now we do have that comment from Barristan about Ashara being dishonored and his belief that losing her child was one of the factors that led to her suicide.  But he seems firmly of the belief that she miscarried a daughter.  

While we have no clue who Barristan's source is for this I withhold judgment on the question who the Stark was who dishonored her (I'd like it to be Ned, so that the man actually had a proper romance, I don't like the Brandon possibility, and wouldn't be surprised if the man in question turned out to be Benjen ;-)), but as it stands we have to take this as a piece of knowledge as given.

1 minute ago, Frey family reunion said:

So I do wonder if Cersei was familiar before travelling to Winterfell with the main story concerning Ned killing Arthur and Ashara killing herself over the grief of losing her brother.  And when she arrived at Winterfell she hears the rumor of Jon being Ashara's son.  Which is why Cersei asked Ned which was it?  Did your ex girlfirend kill herself because you killed her brother or because you stole her child?

You have to keep in mind that Tywin took Cersei with him when he left court. And Jaime wasn't at Harrenhal for long. She may have heard stuff about what happened to Ashara there, but not from court directly, and it has been over a decade when she mentions this stuff later on.

I'd expect that George has Cersei and perhaps other characters don't recall precisely when exactly Ashara Dayne was pregnant with her child, nor what happened to the child. Selmy was deeply interested in Ashara ... Cersei may have barely known her.

All Cersei needs to know to believe Jon could be Ashara's child by Ned is to think she may have been impregnated by a Stark once while not believing/knowing that said child was a stillborn daughter. If she thinks that, she can believe Ned took Jon Snow from Ashara at Starfall (where the child was born and the first months/year of his life) when he returned Dayne.

It is not that Cersei Lannister (or anyone) would guestimate how old this Jon Snow fellow is or accurately recall when they heard Ashara Dayne was dishonored by a Stark over a decade ago.

That is the kind of thinking of people reading and obsessing over a book series, not how real world people think about the children of people they barely know.

7 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Not according to Sansa:

Oh, but Sansa doesn't seem to know that Mya is Robert's daughter. People don't seem to speak about that openly, and Mya herself might not know who her father is. But she got her bastard name of 'Stone' because Robert acknowledged her - back when he was still living in the Vale with Jon. Else she would be just Mya, like the Hull boys.

We can also be pretty sure that Jon or Varys saw to it that Mya got that job with the goats and all that. She is just a commoner, but working in a rather important capacity with Lord Nestor Royce (who ran the Vale in Jon's absence). That indicates that she is provided for without knowing it, like Gendry was.

But unlike him, she got the bastard name. Granted, George may not have intended it that way, but that's the only way I think we can go with this. If we don't, we have no explanation why the hell Mya is a Stone.