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R + L = J v.167


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By his own admission, George is very bad at timelines and likes to keep things vague to avoid people trying to pin him down on things he may not have intended. There's no way he has some detailed daily timeline of the rebellion showing Jon was conceived on "Christmas Eve", something that doesn't exist in their world.

As far as the Robb-Jon age debate goes, I think either way is possible, but I think the gap is likely to be pretty small regardless and my first paragraph is why I think it's a bit pointless to try to specify anything exact or conclusive. As I said, I don't have a firm belief (though I probably lean towards Robb being slightly older), but I think some of the arguments in this thread as to why Jon must be older are pretty weak. Stannis clearly does not have a firm belief that he was fathered on a fishwife. As for the people in those islands who do believe it, I seriously doubt any of them are even thinking about Robb Stark when spreading rumors about Ned Stark's bastard, and given the story is bullshit, there's no reason to grant them any sort of authority on the question of who is older. I think people are reading way too much into Ned's "I dishonored myself" thing, it's just a cover story for Robert. He definitely wouldn't have made any affirmation before a septon, Ned is a follower of the Old Gods.

One thing that points against Jon being any more than just barely older than Robb at most (assuming he was born at the ToJ shortly before Ned's arrival) is Catelyn's thoughts in AGOT Catelyn X. 

Quote

Ned had lingered scarcely a fortnight with his new bride before he too had ridden off to war with promises on his lips. At least he had left her with more than words; he had given her a son. Nine moons had waxed and waned, and Robb had been born in Riverrun while his father still warred in the south. She had brought him forth in blood and pain, not knowing whether Ned would ever see him. Her son. He had been so small

That indicates that Robb was born while the war was still going on and before Catelyn was sure that Ned would survive it. At the absolute latest, it's very difficult to imagine that taking place much later than the ToJ combat, during whatever time it took for her to hear of Ned's survival.

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3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Jon would have never been anywhere near Cersei's radar until Cersei arrived at Winterfell. 

This could be incorrect. It's likely that Cersei found out about Jon, at about that time, when Ned told about him to Robert. Is it known when did Ned told Robert? He could have told him, when he brought Lyanna's body to King's Landing. Or maybe at that time he hid Jon's existence from Robert, and Robert found out that Ned fathered a bastard, only at the time of Greyjoy Rebellion. Maybe that's when Ned had to lie to Robert, and also mentioned to him that his bastard's mother is named Wylla. By that time Wylla (Jon's wet-nurse) had already left Winterfell.

If Robert found out about Jon's existence during Greyjoy's Rebellion, he could have told this information to Cersei, after his return to KL. Something like - Honey, can you imagine what my buddy Ned did? He fathered a bastard on some peasant Dornishwoman!

So, there's a possibility, that Cersei knew about Jon even before her arrival to Winterfell.

3 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

So I do wonder if Cersei was familiar before travelling to Winterfell with the main story concerning Ned killing Arthur and Ashara killing herself over the grief of losing her brother.  And when she arrived at Winterfell she hears the rumor of Jon being Ashara's son. 

That couldn't have happened. Because when shortly after the end of war Cat asked Ned whether Ashara Dayne was Jon's mother, and he asked her where did she heard this, he forced his people to stop gossiping about it. It was in Cat's chapter. Thus, Cersei couldn't have heard about Ashara rumour at Winterfell. Ned stopped those rumours in his castle years before AGOT.

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1 hour ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

That indicates that Robb was born while the war was still going on and before Catelyn was sure that Ned would survive it. At the absolute latest, it's very difficult to imagine that taking place much later than the ToJ combat, during whatever time it took for her to hear of Ned's survival.

Officially the war ended when Ned lifted siege of Storm's End, that was before he went to Dorne.

Also, after Cat gave birth to Robb, they departed from Riverrun to Winterfell. And by the time when she arrived there, Jon with his wet-nurse was already there. Cat departed from Riverrun, and Jon with Wylla departed from Dorne (either from the Tower of Joy, or from Starfall). Dorne is much much much further from Winterfell than Riverrun, so isn't Jon's presence at Winterfell, at the time of Cat's arrival there, is an evidence that Jon was born earlier than Robb?

Lyanna gave birth to Jon and died. Ned sent Wylla with Jon to Winterfell. Cat gave birth to Robb, and shortly after that they went to Winterfell. Or maybe they were staying at Riverrun for months after Robb's birth. If Jon was born after Robb, then how did he got to Winterfell before Robb got there? He was born further from Winterfell than Robb. The difference in distances could have been compensated only by difference in timing. Thus, he could have gotten there sooner than Robb, only if he was born earlier.

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But all this is based on the assumption that Catelyn and Wylla set out for Winterfell right after Rob and Jon were born.  We don't know this at all.  Catelyn could have stayed in Riverrun for a time.  Wylla could have set out much sooner after Jon was born.  The point is, we don't know.  And we don't know because Martin either doesn't want us to know or he doesn't think it's important.  I believe the latter because, of course, it doesn't matter whether Rob or Jon is older regarding inheritance of Winterfell and all that goes with it.  Jon is not Ned's son so he's not in that line of succession in any case.  

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16 hours ago, Megorova said:

 

After Ned's wedding with Catelyn, he went south. And Three Sisters are located north from Riverrun, near The Neck. Those islanders, based on Jon's age, believe that his mother is a fisherman's daughter from Sweetsister. Ned had no contact with her after his wedding with Cat. She was in northern direction, and he went south. The only time when they were in contact, is in the beginning of Rebellion, in late 282. Or, even if Ned went again thru that area, on his way from The North to Stoney Sept, still that was BEFORE his wedding with Cat.

After Stoney Sept, and until the end of the Battle at Trident, Ned and Robert were staying together. So Robert knew that Jon couldn't have been conceived in that time period. Thus, Jon was conceived before the Battle of the Bells, and before Ned's wedding.

Thus, Jon is older than Robb.

I do appreciate the fact you are doing detailed timeline calculations. Like so many of us who have done similar research you reach some of the same conclusions all of us have. It shows you are an attentive reader, or like my own case, some one obsessed with this stuff. However, I think you make some serious mistakes in trying to draw too much from real world parallels. I also think you are making some mistakes here. Let me say why I think so.

  • Lord Godric's fishermen's daughter tale places Jon's conception well outside the "eight or nine months, or thereabouts" Martin tells is the difference in Dany and Jon's ages. He also makes clear in the same quote that Jon is not over a year older than Dany. If Jon was conceived during the time period Lord Godric tells Davos of, it would directly contradict the timeframe.
  • This would also directly contradict what both Catelyn and Ned tell us that Jon was conceived after their wedding. One must ask just why Ned not only conceal this timing from Catelyn when it would make both of their lives so much easier if true. Why would Ned go to the lengths of lying to Robert as well? A bastard son conceived before a betrothal is not breaking any vows to Catelyn. If Ned had just periodically sent money to raise his bastard or found a place for him outside Winterfell it would have made his marriage to Cat a lot easier. Instead he brings the child home. Why? And why would the child appear after he returns from Starfall?
  • You also make the mistake that Ned and Robert must have been together from Stony Sept onward? Why? There is much of this period we don't know about, and Martin has told us there other battles and skirmishes that the ones we know about, so why must they have been together for this whole period. They weren't before Stony Sept, and the same is true after the sack, so why the assumption? I would also caution that even while they are together, it doesn't mean they are always together. Robert had a very bad habit of sleeping around while he was supposedly fighting a war to win his "true love" back.  I really don't think Ned went with him in search of Robert's lustful needs.
  • I would also suggest, this known and possible separateness allows for the remote possibility that Ned's story is true. Meaning he did lapse in his vows after he left his new bride in Riverrun. Something Martin has tried very hard to keep possible.

Instead let me say once again, I think if far more likely Lord Godric's story is part of a cover story for Wylla's origins. If Wylla was someone Ned had an affair with during the war, then there is a strong likelihood that some of his own troops would know her. A camp follower in the commander's tent at night would cause gossip amongst the Northern troops. Instead they bring home tales of Ashara. If Wylla was in Ned's company and she became pregnant with a child that he brought home, then it would be a simple fact known widely who was Jon's mother. It isn't.

As to Jon and Robb's ages, I've already said I think it possible Jon is secretly older than Robb. What is clear is they are of a similar age. In both reality and in the cover story Ned tells to Catelyn and Robert. What we absolutely disagree upon is that it is accepted knowledge, by Catelyn or just about anyone else, that Jon is older. Nor do Catelyn or any of the people of Westeros just not notice that Jon's name day falls before Robb's each year. No, all evidence shows that it is accepted as fact Robb is the oldest of the two. Again, that maybe a lie know only to a few (Ned, Wylla, Howland Reed, Ashara, and anyone else who accompanies Ned on his trip to Starfall.

 

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18 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

As to Jon and Robb's ages, I've already said I think it possible Jon is secretly older than Robb. What is clear is they are of a similar age.

:agree:

19 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

If Ned had just periodically sent money to raise his bastard or found a place for him outside Winterfell it would have made his marriage to Cat a lot easier. Instead he brings the child home. Why?

I asked more or less the same thing to @lehutinin my alternative parentage theory with Howland Reed as daddy.

22 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Instead let me say once again, I think if far more likely Lord Godric's story is part of a cover story for Wylla's origins.

Godric Borrel seems to be a person who does all thinks after carefully judging the risks and profits for him in it. If Godric lied and spread lies about Wylla, then Ned had to have made him happy (hope u know what I mean) somehow. 

But some believe Borrel is one of the few who knows Jon's parentage, I think it unlikely. Ned wouldn't trust his own wife, why would he put faith in that cunning fatso? Though one more potential person aware of Jon's parentage would be nice to bolster Jon's claim ( to legitimacy, if not the Iron throne or KITN) 

27 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

Again, that maybe a lie know only to a few (Ned, Wylla, Howland Reed, Ashara, and anyone else who accompanies Ned on his trip to Starfall.

Yep

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1 hour ago, TheLastWolf said:

I asked more or less the same thing to @lehutinin my alternative parentage theory with Howland Reed as daddy.

I think you missed the context to @SFDanny's answer. They're taking as given @Megorova's argument that Jon "was conceived during the time period Lord Godric tells Davos of," and then asking why Ned would lie about that if it were true.

 

Your alternative parentage theory makes the same mistake as nearly every other alternative parentage theory, which is whenever a character has a simple, straightforward, and safe option versus a complex, convoluted, and risky option; your theory has the character choosing the latter, every single time.

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3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Lord Godric's fishermen's daughter tale places Jon's conception well outside the "eight or nine months, or thereabouts" Martin tells is the difference in Dany and Jon's ages. He also makes clear in the same quote that Jon is not over a year older than Dany. If Jon was conceived during the time period Lord Godric tells Davos of, it would directly contradict the timeframe.

No, it wouldn't.

If Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, who was born in first half of 284 (this is based on various elements mentioned in the books), then he was conceived between 17 months+10 days and 18 months+10 days before Dany's birth.

Duration of pregnancy is 40 weeks, which is 9 months and 10 more days. So 8-9 months + 9 months and 10 days, is those 17,10-18,10.

Dany was born no later than June of 284. She didn't turned 16 yet in 300. In one of Tyrion's chapters it was mentioned that someone in Volantis will begin rebellion 6 months after beginning of 300, and it didn't happened yet, so it's not yet the end of June in the end of ADWD.

If the latest possible day for Dany's birth is June 30 of 284, then possible months for Jon's conception is 17,10-18,10 before that, and that's 20th December 282 (if Jon is 9 months older) or 20th January 283 (if Jon is 8 months older), that's in case of a fulltermed 40 weeks long pregnancy.

He was born in September, and she was born either in second half of May or in first half of June (8-9 months later), May seems more likely (based on when Varys informed Robert about Dany's pregnancy, and when Dany turned 15, how soon after Rhaego's birth in early 299).

The Bettle of the Bells happened in January of 283, so in December of 282 Ned could have been in the area near The Bite, in proximity to where lived that fisherman's daughter. That islander (forgot his name) believed that Jon's mother named him after Jon Arryn. So, it's likely that he thinks that Jon was conceived not when Ned alone was going thru The Bite from Gulltown to White Harbor (at that time Ned visited that islander's father, and he was alone, he met that fisherman after that visit), but when Ned was going from White Harbor thru The Bite, when he was joining his troops to Jon Arryn's troops, in December. Then they went from The Bite, thru Riverrun and to the Stoney Sept. They had enough time to get there by the middle of January, when the Battle of the Bells happened.

Distance between Riverrun and Stoney Sept is ~235 miles, 9,4 days on horseback (but this isn't the maximum possible speed, it's a medium). Distance from The Bite to Riverrun is ~twice further, 470, 19 days. ~28 days (or less, if they traveled faster) from The Bite to Stoney Sept.

Jon was born in September of 283, and was conceived in December of 282, and at that time (in December) Ned could have been in The Bite area, where Jon's supposed fish-mother lived.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Why would Ned go to the lengths of lying to Robert as well? A bastard son conceived before a betrothal is not breaking any vows to Catelyn.

But may make Robert to realise that the child not only isn't Ned's, but also CAN'T be Ned's. He would have figured out that the baby is Lyanna's and Rhaegar's child, not Ned's bastard.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Instead let me say once again, I think if far more likely Lord Godric's story is part of a cover story for Wylla's origins. If Wylla was someone Ned had an affair with during the war, then there is a strong likelihood that some of his own troops would know her. A camp follower in the commander's tent at night would cause gossip amongst the Northern troops. Instead they bring home tales of Ashara. If Wylla was in Ned's company and she became pregnant with a child that he brought home, then it would be a simple fact known widely who was Jon's mother. It isn't.

Wylla isn't fisherman's daughter. Those islanders from The Bite think that Jon's mother is one of their own, not some Dornishwoman.

3 hours ago, SFDanny said:

As to Jon and Robb's ages, I've already said I think it possible Jon is secretly older than Robb. What is clear is they are of a similar age. In both reality and in the cover story Ned tells to Catelyn and Robert.

But Ned also told to various people contradicting information about Jon's origin, so if he lied about that, he could have also lied to them about Jon's age. Though Jon himself knows when is his real birthday. And other people, except Jon himself, didn't cared when exactly is that bastard's name day. It's not like anyone ever celebrated it, or gave him any presents.

 

Let's return to this discussion after TWOW's release. Dany's 16th birthday will be in the beginning of the book (if there will be Dany's POV in it). Then we will have more information. Also, when it will be revealed that Rhaego is alive, it will prove my theory, that all three future dragonriders are Air Signs of Zodiac. Jon is Libra (Libras are born September 23-October 22), Rhaego is Aquarius (January 21-February 20), and Dany is Gemini (May 21-June 21).

Based on what happened in AGOT between Jon's departure from Winterfell and Ned's execution, it seems that Robb's birthday was later than Jon's, and closer to the end of the year than Jon's. To me it seems that Robb was born in October or even in November, and Jon's name day was before that, which places Jon's birthday into September, and then he is Libra. I'm kind of going in circles, but my absolute believe in my theory is based on symbolism around Starfall and Dawn of Daynes. Jon is Libra, because Libra's guardian planet is Venus. Venus is the Morning Star, and its name in Latin is Lucifer, which translates as lightbringer, which connects Dawn of Daynes to Azor Ahai's Lightbringer, and connects Jon to Starfall, as the place of his conception and possibly even his birth, and places his birth in September. If he is Azor Ahai reborn, who was born under the bleeding stars (at Starfall), and he is the Sword of the Morning, and Dawn of Daynes is Azor Ahai's Lightbringer/Lucifer, then The Morning Star Venus is Jon's guardian, which makes him a Libra.

11 hours ago, Prince of the North said:

it doesn't matter whether Rob or Jon is older regarding inheritance of Winterfell and all that goes with it.  Jon is not Ned's son so he's not in that line of succession in any case.  

To figure out Jon's age, that he is older than Robb, is important not because of the possibility of Jon becoming Ned's heir instead of Robb, if Ned ever legitimized Jon, but because if Jon was born earlier than Robb, who was born close to the year's end, then Jon could be Libra, which connects him to two other prospective dragonriders, Dany and Rhaego. Three heads of the dragon, three dragonriders, three Air Signs of Zodiac - Libra (Jon), Aquarius (Rhaego), Gemini (Dany).

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23 minutes ago, Megorova said:

To figure out Jon's age, that he is older than Robb, is important not because of the possibility of Jon becoming Ned's heir instead of Robb, if Ned ever legitimized Jon, but because if Jon was born earlier than Robb, who was born close to the year's end, then Jon could be Libra, which connects him to two other prospective dragonriders, Dany and Rhaego. Three heads of the dragon, three dragonriders, three Air Signs of Zodiac - Libra (Jon), Aquarius (Rhaego), Gemini (Dany).

Sorry, but the reason you think it's important to determine whether Rob or Jon is older doesn't matter to the point I'm making.  I said readers not knowing how soon Catelyn left Riverrun after Rob's birth or how soon Wylla left Starfall after Jon's birth (if that's, in fact, how Jon was brought to Winterfell) means that the timing of when they each reached Winterfell does not give us any indication of who was born first.  The only way it could is based on the assumption that Catelyn and Wylla both set out very soon after the babies were born.  Because we don't know that, it has no bearing on trying to determine whether Rob or Jon is older.     

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19 hours ago, Megorova said:

Officially the war ended when Ned lifted siege of Storm's End, that was before he went to Dorne.

Also, after Cat gave birth to Robb, they departed from Riverrun to Winterfell. And by the time when she arrived there, Jon with his wet-nurse was already there. Cat departed from Riverrun, and Jon with Wylla departed from Dorne (either from the Tower of Joy, or from Starfall). Dorne is much much much further from Winterfell than Riverrun, so isn't Jon's presence at Winterfell, at the time of Cat's arrival there, is an evidence that Jon was born earlier than Robb?

Lyanna gave birth to Jon and died. Ned sent Wylla with Jon to Winterfell. Cat gave birth to Robb, and shortly after that they went to Winterfell. Or maybe they were staying at Riverrun for months after Robb's birth. If Jon was born after Robb, then how did he got to Winterfell before Robb got there? He was born further from Winterfell than Robb. The difference in distances could have been compensated only by difference in timing. Thus, he could have gotten there sooner than Robb, only if he was born earlier.

Your post doesn’t make sense in light of what I posted. If you’re taking the end of the war as the capture of storm’s end, that means Robb was born before then per Catelyn. So how does Jon coming back first mean he was born first? There’s no indication that catelyn came to winterfell immediately after the war ended or that she traveled at the same speed as wylla. And for that matter, if wylla took a boat, it’s probably entirely possible for her to make the journey in less time than catelyn, traveling by water was much faster than traveling by land in pre-modern times.

Edited by ATaleofSalt&Onions
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16 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

There’s no indication that catelyn came to winterfell immediately after the war ended or that she traveled at the same speed as wylla. And for that matter, if wylla took a boat, it’s probably entirely possible for her to make the journey in less time than catelyn, traveling by water was much faster than traveling by land in pre-modern times.

Yes, Wylla could have used a boat or a ship to get to Winterfell, and so could have Catelyn.

(I did some calculations ages ago, about traveling during and after Robert's Rebellion, with researching such information as speed of horses on various terrains, speed of medieval ships, speed of flying birds, speed of rowing boats, speed of marching troops, etc.)

From Starfall or the Tower of Joy (from there to Wyl river is 1-3 days of ride on horseback or by cart/carriage) thru The Summer Sea and The Narrow Sea to White Harbor, and from there up White Knife river in direction of the Long Lake, from there it's only a few days ride to Winterfell. And Catelyn could have went from Riverrun by the Red Fork to the Bay of Crabs, and from there to White Harbor, etc.

Starfall/Tower of Joy is very far away from Winterfell. It's months away even from Riverrun.

The distance between Riverrun and White Harbor is ~ 2085,5 nautical miles. Distance between Starfall and White Harbor is ~3649,7 nautical miles. Between Tower of Joy and White Harbor ~ 2606,93 nautical miles. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 mph (nautical miles per hour).

Duration of sea-voyage to White Harbor:

- from Riverrun - a bit over 17 days;

- from the Tower of Joy - nearly 22 days;

- from Starfall - a bit over 30 days.

And if they went via land-route, then from Riverrun to Crossroads Inn distance is 300 miles, and from Starfall to Crossroads Inn it's 1620 miles. From Crossroads Inn they would have traveled the same distance to Winterfell via the King's Road. Though, the thing is is that if Catelyn traveled from Riverrun via land, then she would have went all the way by roads (River Road and King's Road), and Wylla would have went half of her way via mountain marches.

I found info on speed of travel on horseback, thru various types of terrains, how far a horse can travel, miles per day:

https://www.cartographersguild.com/showthread.php?t=19730

On Roads / trails
Level or rolling terrain: 40
Hilly terrain: 30
Mountainous terrain: 20

Off-Road (or unkempt trails etc)
Level/rolling grasslands: 30
Hilly grasslands: 25
Level/rolling forest/thick scrub: 20
Very hilly forest/thick scrub: 15

Un-blazed Mountain passes: 10
Marshland: 10

So Catelyn would have traveled 300/with speed 40 miles per day = 7,5 days to Crossroads Inn. And Wylla would have traveled 840 miles thru Dornish Marches, 840/20 = 42 days to King's Road and from there additional 780 miles to Crossroads Inn, 780/40 = 19,5 days.

So to get from Riverrun to CI Cat would have needed a bit over one week (that's without inclusion of stops, that they could have made on their way), and to get there Wylla would have needed 61,5 days (or if most of the way thru Dornish Marches was by marshlands, then it would have taken her 840/10 = 84+19,5 = 103,5 days to get to CI). And additonal 1320 miles from CI to Winterfell, 1320/40 = 33 days.

40,5 days would have lasted Cat's voyage, and 94,5-136,5 days Wylla's voyage. Or 17 (Cat) and 30 (Wylla) days, if they traveled by ships.

If they traveled by land, then Wylla's voyage would have lasted ~2-3 months longer than Catelyn's trip.

It's unlikely that Wylla lingered at Dorne after Jon's birth. Most likely, Ned would have wanted to get Jon to Winterfell as soon as possible. Thus, he arranged their voyage north shortly after Jon's birth/Lyanna's death.

To get to Winterfell, Wylla would have needed 2-3 months more than Cat. So unless Cat lingered at Riverrun for more than 2-3 months after Robb's birth, then Jon was born earlier than Robb. His earlier birth would have compensated that additionally needed travel time.

There is a very slight possibility that Robb was born earlier, though, because Lyanna eloped with Rhaegar at least three months before Robb's conception, I doubt that Jon was born later than Robb.

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This is awesome, really!  But, unfortunately, it's also a lot of speculation, opinion, and assumption with no in-story evidence to support it.

It reminded me of this Thus Spake Martin" quote from Martin so I'll just let him speak for himself here:

Quote

The reason I am never specific about dates and distances is precisely so that people won't sit down and do this sort of thing.

My suggestion would be to put away the ruler and the stopwatch, and just enjoy the story.

The point is that Martin himself was never concerned with being this precise while writing the story so using this approach or level of precision is not the way to "prove" anything in the story.

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On 8/8/2020 at 5:00 AM, SFDanny said:

Lord Godric's fishermen's daughter tale places Jon's conception well outside the "eight or nine months, or thereabouts" Martin tells is the difference in Dany and Jon's ages. He also makes clear in the same quote that Jon is not over a year older than Dany. If Jon was conceived during the time period Lord Godric tells Davos of, it would directly contradict the timeframe.

Not sure why this is.  The Fisherman's daughter story would have Jon's conception occurring after the start of the war.  The war had waged close to a year when the Sack of King's Landing occurred.  

The Battle of the Trident occurred before the Sack of King's Landing.

Dany's conception occurred before the Battle of the Trident.

It all kind of depends on what Ned means when he says close to a year doesn't it?

And if you are going to rely so heavily on GRRM's quote about Jon's age, you have to agree to live by it when it disproves other parts of your theory as well.

After all, doesn't that quote pretty much ensure that Jon has to be older than Robb?

If Jon was born at the time of Dany's conception, then he was born prior to the Battle of the Trident.

Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells.  

Are you saying that more than 9 months elapsed between Ned and Cat's wedding and the Battle of the Trident?

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17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Are you saying that more than 9 months elapsed between Ned and Cat's wedding and the Battle of the Trident?

Less. ~6-7 months. In span of that time Gerold Hightower went to Dorne to fetch Rhaegar from there. Based on what Jaime remembered from that time, Rhaegar didn't had a lot of spare time after his return. He had to go to Trident pretty soon after his return.

Duration of the trip from KL to Starfall is approximately 80-90 days (depending on thru what kind of terrain Gerold/Rhaegar traveled). So the round trip was 160-180 days long. Another 14 or so days from KL to Trident. 174-194 days or 5,8-6,4 months of travel time. +for how long Rhaegar was staying at wherever Gerold found him, before he went back to KL, and +for how long Rhaegar was staying at KL, while preparing for the battle. Thus, it was definitely no more than 7 months or so. But definitely NOT 9 or more, not even 8.

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On 8/8/2020 at 2:34 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Of course he did, that's what gives Jon a legal status and protection.  He swore an affirmation probably in front of a septon that Jon was his son.  That's what it means to be formally acknowledged.  It's a legal status.  It's probably one of the promises he made Lyanna.  In the law of Westeros it's what makes Jon his son, (it also makes Ned's biological paternity fairly irrelelvant at least in regards to Jon's legal status). 

On 8/7/2020 at 4:19 PM, corbon said:

You'll have to show an affirmation event.

You can't.

There is no such formal or religious event shown or referenced for any bastard in Westeros.

On 8/8/2020 at 2:34 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Which is why it's proof that some in Winterfell also probably believe that Jon must be older than Robb.  

Its not possible to create 'proof' out of two separate stories by connecting them. The connection, at least the 'proving' part, is entirely made up.

On 8/8/2020 at 2:34 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Cersei asking whether Jon's mom was a whore could be Cersei taking a wild stab.  I stated that up above.  But the mother being a Dornish peasant or the mother being Ashara Dayne are too specific for Cersei to have just come up with those on her own.  Those are rumors that Cersei heard.

pffft.
Too specific? 
Ned picked up his bastard in Dorne. He went to Dorne without one and came back with one. Even an utter moron can narrow down (rightly or wrongly) 'some peasant woman' to 'some Dornish peasant woman' without hearing any 'rumour' about the mother.

On 8/8/2020 at 5:36 AM, Megorova said:

Cersei thought that Jon's mother was either Ashara Dayne or a Dornish peasant.

Cersei didn't 'think' anything. She just knew Ned had a bastard from Dorne (and had obviously heard a rumour or two about Ashara Dayne) and threw a bunch of generic accusations against Ned to show his 'hypocrisy'.

On 8/8/2020 at 5:36 AM, Megorova said:

Robert thought that Jon's mother was Wylla, a serving woman from Starfall. Catelyn thought that either Jon's mother was Ashara Dayne, or if otherwise, then she had no idea who his mother could have been. Those three thought that the mother was from Dorne, because that's from where Ned brought Jon, after the war ended.

Agreed.

On 8/8/2020 at 8:35 AM, Megorova said:

What is the source of Cersei's information that Jon's mother is a Dornishwoman?

Cersei's brain. Ned went to Dorne without a child, came back with a bastard. Ergo the mother was probably a dornish woman, whether whore, peasant, rape victim, or some young noblewoman.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:11 AM, Frey family reunion said:

It's basically the difference between Mya Stone and Edric Storm. 

The difference between them is that Mya's mother was a commoner, Edric's a noblewoman.

No 'formal' acknowledgement or process is ever noted. Robert did acknowledge Edric, unlike Mya, but there is no indication of it being a formal or religious ceremony or anything like that.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:11 AM, Frey family reunion said:

Robert informally recognized Mya as his daughter but he never forrmally acknowledged her.  Since Edric's mom was a "maiden"  and daughter of House Florent, Robert was pressured into formally acknowledging Edric Storm.  It seems fairly clear that Jon Snow's status is akin to Edric's and not Mya's. 

No, it does not.
Jon's status is not like Edric's. Mya and Jon (assumed) are baseborn. Edric is nobly born on both sides. Edric has higher status.
The only reason Jon has any status at all is that he has been brought up in Ned's household and treated like Ned's son. But that status doesn't seem to be a formal thing. Jon gets respect as Ned's bastard and for his upbringing, but no formal 'standing' expcet as convenient for others.  If Robert brought Maya into his household like Ned did to Jon, and called her daughter, she's have status similar to Jon but still significantly less than Edric.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:11 AM, Frey family reunion said:

I think unacknowledged bastards are, but I do think acknowledged bastards do have certain rights.  I cant' find it right now, but I could have sworn there is a So Spake Martin talking about the legal rights of acknowledged bastards.  If memory serves they can inherit, but only if there are no other lawful heirs.

https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/The_Hornwood_Inheritance_and_the_Whents
Its all an unclear mess, is the short summary.

I don't see anything more required to 'acknowledge' a bastard than a man call the child his. No formal or legal ceremony is ever mentioned or discussed. 
Robert acknowledged Edric, because the mother was a noble maiden so it would have been an even greater dishonour to her if he did not.
Robert did not acknowledge Mya as his own, but many people around them 'knew' she was his anyway.
Robert did not acknowledge Gendry, and almost no one around them knows Gendry is his. Or Bella, for example.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:55 AM, Lord Varys said:

While we have no clue who Barristan's source is for this I withhold judgment on the question who the Stark was who dishonored her (I'd like it to be Ned, so that the man actually had a proper romance, I don't like the Brandon possibility, and wouldn't be surprised if the man in question turned out to be Benjen ;-)), but as it stands we have to take this as a piece of knowledge as given.

:rofl:
Yeah, lets have 13 (or younger) year old Benjen Stark getting the beautiful young courtier, sister of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning who dances with her brother (at least 21 yrs old), with Lord Jon Connington (20ish year old ruling Lord), Oberyn Martell (23ish and already known as the Red Viper) and hangs out with Brandon Stark (heir, 20ish) pregnant.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:55 AM, Lord Varys said:

Oh, but Sansa doesn't seem to know that Mya is Robert's daughter. People don't seem to speak about that openly, and Mya herself might not know who her father is. But she got her bastard name of 'Stone' because Robert acknowledged her - back when he was still living in the Vale with Jon. Else she would be just Mya, like the Hull boys.

Always good to see someone who knows more about the unwritten (by GRRM) rules of Westeros than the people GRRM writes who live there. :rolleyes: 

Sansa knows her name is Stone. Yet she still thinks her unacknowledged. Sansa is not stupid.
The clear indication is that it is not 'acknowledgement' that gives baseborn children the extra name. 
Its simply general usage and what is 'known'.

Just Robert hanging around with her is enough for people to give her the name, and her to keep it thereafter.

The Hull boys grew up with no contact or acknowledgement from their noble parent. So they didn't get a last name to keep.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:55 AM, Lord Varys said:

We can also be pretty sure that Jon or Varys saw to it that Mya got that job with the goats and all that. She is just a commoner, but working in a rather important capacity with Lord Nestor Royce (who ran the Vale in Jon's absence). That indicates that she is provided for without knowing it, like Gendry was.

Agreed.

On 8/8/2020 at 9:55 AM, Lord Varys said:

But unlike him, she got the bastard name. Granted, George may not have intended it that way, but that's the only way I think we can go with this. If we don't, we have no explanation why the hell Mya is a Stone.

Sure we do. Its pretty damn simple.
Mya gets the name Stone because Robert came and visited her a lot when she was a child and it was clear to those around them that she was his daughter even though he didn't acknowledge her as such. People gave her the name and thus she kept it.
Gendry doesn't get the name as Robert didn't visit him and only a few secretive people know he was Robert's bastard. most people just assume he's double-baseborn, so to speak. 

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4 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Not sure why this is.  The Fisherman's daughter story would have Jon's conception occurring after the start of the war.  The war had waged close to a year when the Sack of King's Landing occurred.  

The Battle of the Trident occurred before the Sack of King's Landing.

Dany's conception occurred before the Battle of the Trident.

It all kind of depends on what Ned means when he says close to a year doesn't it?

And if you are going to rely so heavily on GRRM's quote about Jon's age, you have to agree to live by it when it disproves other parts of your theory as well.

After all, doesn't that quote pretty much ensure that Jon has to be older than Robb?

If Jon was born at the time of Dany's conception, then he was born prior to the Battle of the Trident.

Robb was conceived after the Battle of the Bells.  

Are you saying that more than 9 months elapsed between Ned and Cat's wedding and the Battle of the Trident?

The Fisherman's daughter story would place Jon's conception within the first two or so weeks of the war, which would presumably place Jon's birth well before Dany's conception.

GRRM's statement indicates that Jon's birth could have occurred as much as a month if not more after Dany's conception, which seems to have occurred just before Rhaegar took Jonothor and Barristan and left for the Trident, two or more weeks before the battle.

The time between the BotB and BotT appears to have been considerable. Not sure anything rules out the possibility that it could have been as much as nine months between the BotB and BotT. 

I highly doubt it took Ned 2-3 months to get from the Vale to Winterfell to Stoney Sept. The war had already started, Robert was on his own, and I doubt Ned waited at Winterfell very long for all his bannermen to join him before heading south.

Whatever the case, Ned and Cat clearly know how much time passed after their wedding, and the idea that Jon was conceived after obviously isn't implausible, whether or not it's actually the truth.

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59 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

GRRM's statement indicates that Jon's birth could have occurred as much as a month if not more after Dany's conception, which seems to have occurred just before Rhaegar took Jonothor and Barristan and left for the Trident, two or more weeks before the battle.

Humor me for an instant, and for the sake of argument, let’s assume that for whatever reason Viserys is full of crap or just very wrong about Dany being born the 9 moons after they fled Dragonstone.  

Or to make it even easier, forget Dany’s conception or birth for the moment.

Do we have any information from whatever sources to indicate how long before the Battle of the Trident that Aerys burned Chelsted?

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1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Humor me for an instant, and for the sake of argument, let’s assume that for whatever reason Viserys is full of crap or just very wrong about Dany being born the 9 moons after they fled Dragonstone.  

Or to make it even easier, forget Dany’s conception or birth for the moment.

Do we have any information from whatever sources to indicate how long before the Battle of the Trident that Aerys burned Chelsted?

Not exactly. It was before Rhaegar left. It took Ned two weeks to get from Trident to KL at a fast pace, so presumably took Rhaegar that or more depending on his pace. Then we don't know how long he was by the Trident before the battle. Hours, days, more?

But we know Jon was recently born when Ned "found" him, probably a month or more after the Sack of KL, depending on whether it was at the TOJ or Starfall. And GRRM tells us Dany was born closer to 8-9 months after Jon than a year.

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8 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

The Fisherman's daughter story would place Jon's conception within the first two or so weeks of the war, which would presumably place Jon's birth well before Dany's conception.

From the Eyrie Jon and Robert went to Gulltown, and Ned went to the Fingers. Eyrie -> Fingers, ~18 days -> White Harbor, 26 days. 44 days in total to get across the Bite. Ned arrived to the sea, 18 days after his departure from the Eyrie. Could be that he met that fisherman and his daughter at the Fingers, and that's when locals thought Jon was conceived, while Ned was going from the Fingers to Sister Islands. Or could be that at the Fingers Ned took a boat, and sailed from there on his own. And because he was not a sailor, fisherman, or seafarer, he was not very good at it, and thus got washed up at one of Sister Islands. So could be that that's when and where he met that fisherman, and used his assistance when he continued his voyage north. If Ned met fisherman and his daughter at the islands, then it was already 30 or so days after the beginning of rebellion, or 18 days in case if he met them at the Fingers.

9 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

I highly doubt it took Ned 2-3 months to get from the Vale to Winterfell to Stoney Sept. The war had already started, Robert was on his own, and I doubt Ned waited at Winterfell very long for all his bannermen to join him before heading south.

This is my calculations from another thread, from 2018 (its archived so its unqotable):

Spoiler

"Ned arrived to White Harbor, 26 days after departing from The Fingers.

From Baelish Keep, or from Sisterton, or from White Harbor, or even prior his departure from The Eyrie, he could have sent a raven to his people in Winterfell and other northern castles, for his bannermen to begin necessary preparations. So they marched towards Winterfell long prior Ned arrived home. Though maybe he didn't even went all the way to Winterfell, maybe his troops met him at White Harbor. Though I included either possibility, even that fleet seized by Arryn, could have sailed up north, and went thru northern castles located on shores (Ramsgate, Hornwood, Widow's Watch, The Dreadford, Karhold), gathering northern troops from there, and bringing them to Trident, from which they charged towards Stoney Sept.

I'm writting the longest route, which is via land (by ships it would have been much faster):

from White Harbor up White Knife by ship, 400 miles to King's Road. Average speed of medieval ship is 5 mph. Could be even higher, but I'm taking average. The ship could saild 24 hours per day. 400 / 5 /24 = 3,33 days.

From there by King's Road, 70 miles to Winterfell, by level road, 40 miles per day. 70/40 = 1,75 days.

Then by King's Road northern troops went 1,200 miles to Crossroads Inn.

1,200/40 = 30 days.

And from there to Stoney Sept, thru hilly grasslands, with speed 25 miles per day. 335 miles/25 = 13,4 days.

18,8 (Eyrie - Fingers) + 26 (Fingers - White Harbor) + 3,33 (White Harbor - King's Road) + 1,75 (King's Road - Winterfell) + 30 (Winterfell - Trident/Crossroad Inn) + 13,4 (Crossroad - Stoney Sept) = 93,28 days between Ned departing from The Eyrie, and arriving just in time to save Robert at Stoney Sept."

93 days to get from the Eyrie to Winterfell and to Stoney Sept. That's without inclusion of how much time Ned spent at those locations, or his pauses for rest, or for how long his troops were gathering and preparing for the march (or sailing).

Brandon and Rickard were executed in first half of October. A bit over three months after that, happened the Battle of the Bells, in first half of January.

From Stoney Sept to Riverrun - 235 miles, thru hilly grasslands, 25 miles per day, 9.4 days.

Thus, the wedding at Riverrun was held in first half of February. And that's when Robb was conceived. Which places his birth in late November.

Spoiler

"look at how Robert's Rebellion progressed:

Jon Arryn and Robert took with them Arryn's troops stationed at The Eyrie, maybe on the way to Gulltown gathered some other Houses, and broke into Gulltown. Then Robert took a ship and departed to Storm's End. And Jon Arryn stayed in The Vale, gathering his other people from all over his lands, and then probably also transported them via sea-route to Trident/Crossroads. So it took Robert and Jon just a few days to prepare for going into Gulltown. Then Robert arrived home, and after he found out, that several of his lords are plotting to go against him, and support Targaryens, he gathered his people, and went to fight with those lords to Summerhall. He won there, but lost at Ashford, because the other side had more troops. And then the year ended.

And Stannis was left behind at Storm's End with small garrizon. There was too little of them, to fight back against Tyrell troops. And nobody came to help them, from nearest castles, which means, that Robert took away troops from those castles, while he went to Summerhall. After Robert left, Stannis didn't had enough time to prepare for the war, when Mace arrived there with his army. So it happened not too long after Robert's departure. Everything was happening fast. Especially in the beginning of Rebellion. It was later, in 283, that they had a few months pause between battles, thanks to Ned and Jon's troops defeating Targaryen forces at Stoney Sept. And loyalist also waited for Rhaegar's return. And rebells went to Riverrun for the wedding. So in 283 on both sides things slowed down considerably. Through prior that, first part of Rebellion, happened in a blur.

I calculated, that even if northern bannermen departed from furthest castles of The North, first marched to Winterfell, and only from there to Trident, then even on foot, they would have arrived there in time for Trident's battle.

2135 miles Karhold - Winterfell - Trident.

2135 / 3,1 miles per hour / 5 hours of marching per day = 138 days.

From my previous calculation, it took Ned 50 days to get from The Eyrie to Winterfell, he departed on 14 October. Then let's say the infantry was preparing for 30 days after Ned's arrival, and then marched towards Trident (though Ned himself, with cavalry went ahead to save Robert at Stoney Sept).

14 October + 50 + 30 + 138 = 218 days, then they would have arrived to Trident in the middle of May. And in my calculations, the battle at Trident happened in late July or even in August. Thus there's plenty of additional time for other preparations and delays if needed, and even if troops will go on foot, they will still be on time for the major battle."

So I totally agree with you that Ned didn't remained in The North to gather all of his people. Otherwise he wouldn't have gotten to Stoney Sept in time to save Robert.

According to my earlier calculations, the Battle at Trident happened either in late July or in early August, and the Sack of King's Landing happened in August. Dany was conceived in August and was born in second half of May. Jon was born 8 months before Dany, in September. And Rhaego was born 8 months after Dany's birthday, in January (she was ~1,5 months pregnant on the day of her 14th birthday, mentioned in AGOT).

There's exactly 8 months gap bewteen all of their birthdays:

Jon (September, 283) <- 8 months -> Dany (May, 284) <- 8 months -> Rhaego (January, 299) <- 8 months -> Jon (September).

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