R + L = J v.167

[Megorova]

@corbon

I think that the naming is done like this, examples:

1. the mother claims that her child was fathered by a highborn man:

1a. if the father doesn't acknowledge the mother's claim, then the child is given a bastard-name based on the mother's regional origin.

Mya Stone, Glendon Flowers.

1b. if the father acknowledged the mother's claim, then the child is given a bastard-name based on the father's regional origin.

Edric Storm.

2. the mother doesn't make any official claims about the father's identity:

2c. if the mother is highborn, then the child gets a bastard name based on the mother's regional origin.

Daemon Waters, Aegor Rivers, Brynden Rivers.

2d. if the mother is lowborn, then the child isn't given a last name.

Gendry, Bella (one of Robert's), Marei (supposedly Kevan's or Tywin's daughter), Alysanne, Lily, Willow, Rosey, Bellanora, Narha, Balerion.

3. the mother doesn't make any claims about the father's identity (either she is dead, or she doesn't want to give a last name to her child, or to reveal who the father is), though the father admits that the child is his, and claims that child, takes it under his protection (sometimes even without the mother's consent).

Jon Snow, Sarella Sand, Obara Sand, Nymeria Sand, Tyene Sand, Alayne Stone.

 

Unfortunately, in nearly all cases with bastard-characters, it isn't known who their mothers are, and all of them are acknowledged by their fathers. If we had more characters like Mya Stone, bastard-children, born by lowborn mothers, and not officially acknowledged by their highborn fathers, then it would have been more clear, whether proposed by me system is correct.

Edited August 11, 2020 by Megorova

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

11 hours ago, SFDanny said:

Here I disagree. This is not a convoluted logic problem for George. This is a note keeping problem for George. Somewhere Martin has notes which say when his characters were born, what their hair and eye color is, when important events take place, etc. For us trying to sort out timelines from the clues our author leaves us is a monstrous logic matrix puzzle, but it is not that for George. Martin's challenge is keeping his sequencing right, and that has much more to do with the timing of events in differing story lines as they develop than it does the date of character births.

I'm sure he has general notions of when characters were born (e.g. "late 283, early 290, etc."), I'm not sure if he has exact date equivalents specified anywhere in his notes. But you could be right. In any case, I don't think anyone's going to decode it with any precision by estimating travel times and how much time must have realistically passed between event X and event Y. That's not how George operates.

Edited August 11, 2020 by ATaleofSalt&Onions

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

I'm sure he has general notions of when characters were born (e.g. "late 283, early 290, etc."), I'm not sure if he has exact date equivalents specified anywhere in his notes.

In some cases GRRM did used exact dates for characters' birthdays, and for some other events, mentioned or described in the books. In the World Book he revealed only one specific date, nameday of King Daeron II. All other dates under spoiler are from Fire&Blood.

Daeron II - born on December 31st. Jaehaerys I - born on September 20th. Rhaenys - July 7th. Alysanne Targaryen - died on July 1st. Viserys I - died on March 3rd. Rhaenyra - died on October 22nd. Etc.

Spoiler

"Prince Daeron was born on the last day of 153 AC" - Aegon IV, The World Book. December 31st. Daeron II was Capricorn.

"On the twentieth day of the ninth moon of 50 AC, Jaehaerys Targaryen reached his sixteenth nameday and became a man grown." September 20th. Jaehaerys I was Virgo.

"In 74 AC, King Jaehaerys and Queen Alysanne were blessed again by the gods when Prince Aemon’s wife, the Lady Jocelyn, presented them with their first grandchild. Princess Rhaenys was born on the seventh day of the seventh moon of the year, which the septons judged to be highly auspicious." Rhaenys was Cancer.

"During the first quarter of 135 AC, two momentous events were the occasion of great joy throughout the Seven Kingdoms of Westeros. On the third day of the third moon of that year, the people of King’s Landing woke to a sight that had not been seen since the dark days of the Dance: a dragon in the skies above the city. ... Less than a fortnight later, Larra of Lys gave birth to a son, Prince Viserys’s firstborn child. The mother was twenty years of age, the father only thirteen. Viserys named the child Aegon" The Lysene Spring, Fire & Blood. Born between March 3rd and March 17th. Aegon IV was Pisces.

"The wedding of the King’s Hand and the Queen Regent was to be as splendid as that of the widowed Queen Rhaena had been modest. The High Septon himself would perform the marriage rites, on the seventh day of the seventh moon of the new year. "

"Court records indicate that Septa Ysabel, Lady Lucinda, and the other women chosen for Alysanne Targaryen’s household boarded the trading galley Wise Woman at dawn on the seventh day of the second moon of 50 AC, and left for Dragonstone on the morning tide. "

"Lewd fables are not history, however, and history has only one sure thing to tell us about Lady Coryanne of House Wylde, the putative author of A Caution for Young Girls. On the fifteenth day of the sixth moon of 50 AC, she departed Dragonstone under the cover of night in the company of Ser Howard Bullock, the younger son of the commander of the castle garrison."

"The queen’s own child followed in due course. She was brought to bed during the seventh moon of 53 AC, and this time she gave birth to a strong and healthy child, a girl she named Daenerys." Daenerys was Cancer or Leo.

"The Sun Chaser departed Oldtown on the twenty-third day of the third moon of 56 AC, making her way down Whispering Sound for the open seas in company with Ser Norman Hightower’s Autumn Moon and Ser Eustace Hightower’s Lady Meredith."

"The thirteenth day of the fourth moon of 56 AC dawned cold and grey, with a blustery wind blowing from the east. Court records tell us that Jaehaerys I Targaryen broke his fast with an envoy of the Iron Bank of Braavos, who had come to collect the annual payment on the Crown’s loan."

"Lord Corlys and his fleet set sail from Driftmark on the ninth day of the third moon of 92 AC. "

"Alysanne Targaryen died on Dragonstone on the first day of the seventh moon in 100 AC, a full century after Aegon’s Conquest. She was sixty-four years old."

"Long simmering, the conflict burst into the open on the third day of the third moon of 129 AC, when the ailing, bedridden King Viserys I Targaryen closed his eyes for a nap in the Red Keep of King’s Landing and died without waking."

"Prince Aegon had grown weary of secrecy. “Am I a king or no?” he demanded of his mother. “If I am king, then crown me.”

The bells began to ring on the tenth day of the third moon of 129 AC, tolling the end of a reign."

"It was upon the twenty-second day of the fifth moon of the year 130 AC when the dragons danced and died above the Gods Eye."

"Rhaenyra Targaryen, the Realm’s Delight and Half-Year Queen, passed from this veil of tears upon the twenty-second day of the tenth moon of the 130th year after Aegon’s Conquest. She was thirty-three years of age."

"On the ninth day of the twelfth moon of 130 AC, the magnificent golden dragon that had been King Aegon’s glory died in the outer yard of Dragonstone where he had fallen."

"On the seventh day of the seventh moon of the 131st year after Aegon’s Conquest, a date deemed sacred to the gods, the High Septon of Oldtown pronounced the marriage vows as Prince Aegon the Younger, eldest son of Queen Rhaenrya by her uncle Prince Daemon, wed Princess Jaehaera, the daughter of Queen Helaena by her brother King Aegon II, thereby uniting the two rival branches of House Targaryen and ending two years of treachery and carnage."

"For all these reasons, the realm suffered a terrible blow on the sixth day of the third moon of 132 AC, when Corlys Velaryon, Lord of the Tides, collapsed whilst ascending the serpentine steps in the Red Keep of King’s Landing. By the time Grand Maester Munkun came rushing to his aid, the Sea Snake was dead. "

"On the twenty-second day of the ninth moon of 133 AC, Jaehaera of House Targaryen, Queen of the Seven Kingdoms and the last surviving child of King Aegon II, perished at the age of ten."

If GRRM wrote a specific date for when King Jaehaerys I Targaryen ate breakfast with the envoy of the Iron Bank of Braavos, then it's likely that eventually he will write/reveal a specific dates when were born all important/relevant characters, such as Rhaegar, Jon, Dany, Rhaego. Probably, he left those reveals for Fire&Blood Volume 2. Such as precise dates of the Battle of the Bells, the date of Ned and Cat's wedding, the Battle at Trident, the Sack of King's Landing, The StormNight when Dany was born, the date of King Robert's death, the date of Ned's execution, the date of the Red Wedding, etc.

[The Wondering Wolf]

1 hour ago, Megorova said:

GRRM wrote a specific date for when King Jaehaerys I Targaryen ate breakfast with the envoy of the Iron Bank of Braavos

GRRM wrote a specific date for Aerea's return on Balerion and listed what other people where doing at this moment. It is his 'Where were you when the Twin Towers collapsed?'.

Besides that, the dates you mentioned are mostly unconnected to each other or even to other events. When GRRM is more precise with dates, it is almost 50/50 these dates make sense. You can see that with Laena's birthday (which had to be moved from 93 to 92 AC to make it work that Rhaenys had disvovered her pregnancy by the 9th day of the third moon), with the timing of the Maiden's Day Ball in 133 AC (which is almost impossible to solve because the Maiden's Day has been established to take place in the first half of a year and the Ball takes place at the end), with Rhaenyra's journey from KL to DS (which takes 5 months when all she did was travelling along the coastline up to Duskendale and no-one wanted to have her around for long),  with various wrong ages of characters at certain points, and so on. GRRM is a great writer, but he has huge issues with numbers. He does not even realize that there is no year 0 but still calculates ages as if there was (Aegon, born in 27 BC, becoming 60 in 33 AC). And why is it? Because you do not need many dates to tell a compelling story.

So just because GRRM throws out a bunch of unrelated dates in a history book, it does not mean he knows the specific dates of all the important characters and events in recent history.

[corbon]

20 hours ago, SerTarod said:

Where is this stated in the books? I am curious, as I just realised after reading the back and forth (at the time of Corbon's post above) that I don't know where it is stated what Jon's origins are. The earliest mention of Jon, is Catelyn arriving at Winterfell for the first time and finding Jon and nanny in place. 

I checked on the Wiki and it isn't clear either. 

It isn't. Not everything has to be explicit in the text. But things should agree or fit with what is in the text
Ned didn't have a bastard when he raised the siege of Storms End No one mentioned that and there is  no indication or clue anywhere that he might have done so, and it would be remarkable. Ned didn't have a bastard when he fought at the ToJ (Dorne), though only Ned and Howland and us know that.  From there he went to Starfall (Dorne) and then left Dorne. The next place after Starfall he is known is Winterfell, where his bastard is first remarked upon by others (Cat said he was already there when she arrived).
Based on that alone, it could be argued that Jon was born somewhere between ToJ and Winterfell.
However, thats not all the relevant information.
We know that the people of Winterfell speculated that Jon's mother, whom they never met, was Ashara Dayne. This shows that Jon was not born in Winterfell, but acquired by Ned before he came back to Winterfell. That points back to Dorne, as that was where Ned was before he went back to Winterfell - he may have stopped in other places along the way but thats not known. Even his reconciling with Robert may have been later. 
Then you add in the Dayne stories, about Ashara and Ned being in love, and Wylla, now a Starfallian wetnurse of long standing, being Jon's mother.
These stories point to Jon being around Ned at or before Starfall - They know Ashara is not the mother but tie Jon to a woman residing in Dorne.
Robert's conversation with Ned further ties Jon to a woman in Dorne, Wylla.
Cersei's wild scattergun accusations show  a consistent thread - Ned's bastard came from the south/Dorne.

Every piece of evidence we have from any direction points to Jon being born in Dorne, and thats not addressing any of the R+L=J and ToJ stuff.

So far the best fitting theory we have (though not all agree, even though none show good reason to disagree) is that Jon was born at ToJ, and likely Wylla was already there as a dornish wetnurse procured for Lyanna by Arthur Dayne. Wylla is the most promising candidate for the, or one of the, 'they' who found Ned holding Lyanna along with Howland Reed (HR can't be a 'they' on his own).

Continuing the theory, Wylla stayed on with Ned as Jon's wetnurse, they went to Starfall together where Ned returned Dawn to the Daynes. This explains the Dayne's belief that Wylla is Jon's mother - she arrived together with Ned already nursing Jon. It also can explain Robert's belief in Wylla as the mother even without Ned telling him so - there can be no doubt that he had a report about Ned's trip there - Varys would have been needing to show his value as Master of Whisperers.
If Wylla continued as wetnurse all the way to Winterfell, then when her role there had ended she returned to Starfall. Given how important the sword Dawn is to the Daynes, they owe a huge huge debt to Ned for returning it and would take Wylla on at his recommendation even if she wasn't originally an Arthur Dayne recruit.

The short version is that its clear Ned had Jon before he got to Winterfell, the only known places Ned has been since he didn't have Jon are in Dorne, and all the clues from all sources except the impossible and highly unreliable Fisherman's daughter rumour, point back to Dorne.

12 hours ago, Megorova said:

@corbon

I think that the naming is done like this, examples:

You've explained what you think, my point is that your explanation doesn't actually fit all the examples, nor does it fit the things GRRM has said about similar matters (inheritance, etc).
As with most legal matter in Westeros, the answer is that there is no consistent system, just an underlying set of customs (for which your system is as good an idea as any) which are followed, or not followed according to the convenience of those involved.

Quote

1. the mother claims that her child was fathered by a highborn man:

1a. if the father doesn't acknowledge the mother's claim, then the child is given a bastard-name based on the mother's regional origin.

Mya Stone, Glendon Flowers.

Glendon Flowers doesn't actually fit. Penny Jenny's origins are not known.  She might have been from the Reach, but sleeping with a Reach Knight - among dozens of other men in an army containing men from all of westeros, doesn't make her from the Reach. Since the battle was supposedly near KL, and she remained in KL after the battle, its marginally more likely she was from the Crownlands, though even thats not much more than a best guess either.
Assuming low probability unknowns (the Reach s one of 9 potential regions, and not the most likely), then using them to argue your case, hurts your arguments, not helps them.

Quote

1b. if the father acknowledged the mother's claim, then the child is given a bastard-name based on the father's regional origin.

Edric Storm.

While this may be the reason Edric is named Storm, we don't know. I think it probably is. Same with Mya and several others. You can't use these as 'proof' of your system. They correlate with your system, but there is no indication that they are anything other than a correlation. We aren't told 'why' that name was chosen for them.

Quote

Unfortunately, in nearly all cases with bastard-characters, it isn't known who their mothers are, and all of them are acknowledged by their fathers. If we had more characters like Mya Stone, bastard-children, born by lowborn mothers, and not officially acknowledged by their highborn fathers, then it would have been more clear, whether proposed by me system is correct.

I think it is prudent to acknowledge and apply what GRRM said about inheritance here, rather than trying to find a rigid system.

Quote

Well, the short answer is that the laws of inheritance in the Seven Kingdoms are modelled on those in real medieval history... which is to say, they were vague, uncodified, subject to varying interpertations, and often contradictory.

A man's eldest son was his heir. After that the next eldest son. Then the next, etc. Daughters were not considered while there was a living son, except in Dorne, where females had equal right of inheritance according to age.

After the sons, most would say that the eldest daughter is next in line. But there might be an argument from the dead man's brothers, say. Does a male sibling or a female child take precedence? Each side has a "claim."

What if there are no childen, only grandchildren and great grandchildren. Is precedence or proximity the more important principle? Do bastards have any rights? What about bastards who have been legitimized, do they go in at the end after the trueborn kids, or according to birth order? What about widows? And what about the will of the deceased? Can a lord disinherit one son, and name a younger son as heir? Or even a bastard?

There are no clear cut answers, either in Westeros or in real medieval history. Things were often decided on a case by case basis. A case might set a precedent for later cases... but as often as not, the precedents conflicted as much as the claims.

...

The medieval world was governed by men, not by laws. You could even make a case that the lords preferred the laws to be vague and contradictory, since that gave them more power. In a tangle like the Hornwood case, ultimately the lord would decide... and if some of the more powerful claimants did not like the decision, it might come down to force of arms.

The bottom line, I suppose, is that inheritance was decided as much by politics as by laws. In Westeros and in medieval Europe both.

I think that perfectly fits what we see in bastard names.
 

Edited August 12, 2020 by corbon

[SerTarod]

5 hours ago, corbon said:

It isn't. Not everything has to be explicit in the text. But things should agree or fit with what is in the text
Ned didn't have a bastard when he raised the siege of Storms End No one mentioned that and there is  no indication or clue anywhere that he might have done so, and it would be remarkable. Ned didn't have a bastard when he fought at the ToJ (Dorne) (agree), though only Ned and Howland and us know that (have to disagree).  From there he went to Starfall (Dorne) and then left Dorne. The next place after Starfall he is known is Winterfell, where his bastard is first remarked upon by others (Cat said he was already there when she arrived).
Based on that alone, it could be argued that Jon was born somewhere between ToJ and Winterfell (had to be be  ).
However, thats not all the relevant information.
We know that the people of Winterfell speculated that Jon's mother, whom they never met, was Ashara Dayne. This shows that Jon was not born in Winterfell, but acquired by Ned before he came back to Winterfell. That points back to Dorne, as that was where Ned was before he went back to Winterfell - he may have stopped in other places along the way but thats not known. Even his reconciling with Robert may have been later. 
Then you add in the Dayne stories, about Ashara and Ned being in love, and Wylla, now a Starfallian wetnurse of long standing, being Jon's mother.
These stories point to Jon being around Ned at or before Starfall - They know Ashara is not the mother but tie Jon to a woman residing in Dorne.
Robert's conversation with Ned further ties Jon to a woman in Dorne, Wylla.
Cersei's wild scattergun accusations show  a consistent thread - Ned's bastard came from the south/Dorne.

Every piece of evidence we have from any direction points to Jon being born in Dorne, and thats not addressing any of the R+L=J and ToJ stuff (have to disagree - the evidence at best points to his mother being from Dorne).

So far the best fitting theory we have (though not all agree, even though none show good reason to disagree - this is your opinion) is that Jon was born at ToJ, and likely Wylla was already there as a dornish wetnurse procured for Lyanna by Arthur Dayne. Wylla is the most promising candidate for the, or one of the, 'they' who found Ned holding Lyanna along with Howland Reed (HR can't be a 'they' on his own).

Continuing the theory, Wylla stayed on with Ned as Jon's wetnurse, they went to Starfall together where Ned returned Dawn to the Daynes. This explains the Dayne's belief that Wylla is Jon's mother - she arrived together with Ned (was Ned there before or after Catelyn?)already nursing Jon. It also can explain Robert's belief in Wylla as the mother even without Ned telling him so - there can be no doubt that he had a report about Ned's trip there - Varys would have been needing to show his value as Master of Whisperers.
If Wylla continued as wetnurse all the way to Winterfell, then when her role there had ended she returned to Starfall. Given how important the sword Dawn is to the Daynes, they owe a huge huge debt to Ned for returning it and would take Wylla on at his recommendation even if she wasn't originally an Arthur Dayne recruit.

The short version is that its clear Ned had Jon before he got to Winterfell, the only known places Ned has been since he didn't have Jon are in Dorne (and everywhere between Dorne and Winterfell, as you note above), and all the clues from all sources except the impossible and highly unreliable Fisherman's daughter rumour (why do you doubt Godric Borrell? and give credit to an unknown arrangement with the Daynes?), point back to Dorne.

 

@corbon

Thank you for your considered response. I respect that you have have given this much thought over the years and have an established opinion. I made a few comments / observations (italics) some in jest, others maybe not, but we don't have to spend any further time on this aspect. It was a niggle to me and you answered it perfectly well. 

 

*cheers* 

 

 

 

[corbon]

12 hours ago, SerTarod said:

@corbon

Thank you for your considered response. I respect that you have have given this much thought over the years and have an established opinion. I made a few comments / observations (italics) some in jest, others maybe not, but we don't have to spend any further time on this aspect. It was a niggle to me and you answered it perfectly well. 

*cheers* 

Heh, we old timers don't just come here to argue amongst ourselves, though sometimes it feels like it.
Most of us with relatively well-informed opinions didn't come by those opinions alone, but through much discussion and help from the observations and viewpoints of others. 
Even after more than a decade of sometimes intense discussion and argument, new ideas or points still come forth from time to time, altering our 'westerosi-worldview'. For example its only in the last couple of months through a discussion in this forum that I learned the grey girl in Melisandre's visions (that she thinks is Arya) actually fits Lyanna Stark extremely well, something I'd never considered before.
Its only fair to help others along the same pathway.

 

[Frey family reunion]

On 8/10/2020 at 9:03 AM, Bael's Bastard said:

Whether Lyanna died of excessive bleeding or fever as a result of the pregnancy, there is only so long after Jon's birth she's likely to have lived.

Well to be fair, then we "think this" as opposed to "know this".  First we have to assume that Lyanna died as a result of childbirth.  And even with that assumption we can't assume that she died immediately can we?  After all Elia was bedridden for about six months after one of her pregnancies.  Lyanna's health could have been shattered from her pregnancy but perhaps she didn't succumb until months later.  And I suppose depending on the timing, Lyanna's death bed could have occurred after a second pregnancy.

[Back in Black-Snow]

19 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well to be fair, then we "think this" as opposed to "know this".  First we have to assume that Lyanna died as a result of childbirth.  And even with that assumption we can't assume that she died immediately can we?  After all Elia was bedridden for about six months after one of her pregnancies.  Lyanna's health could have been shattered from her pregnancy but perhaps she didn't succumb until months later.  And I suppose depending on the timing, Lyanna's death bed could have occurred after a second pregnancy.

That is why I posted earlier that we can't get all dogmatic about things that we dont already know the truth about (I think it was the Heresy thread). Often a writer just writes, without doing trigonometry (and perhaps hoping the reader is not versed in trigonometry).

I think it is very likely that the George intentionally writes this way so that he can "change" his mind later (if needed). Maybe not, but it's possible.

[Bael's Bastard]

59 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well to be fair, then we "think this" as opposed to "know this".  First we have to assume that Lyanna died as a result of childbirth.  And even with that assumption we can't assume that she died immediately can we?  After all Elia was bedridden for about six months after one of her pregnancies.  Lyanna's health could have been shattered from her pregnancy but perhaps she didn't succumb until months later.  And I suppose depending on the timing, Lyanna's death bed could have occurred after a second pregnancy.

Lyanna died in a "bed of blood," or birthing bed, as confirmed by AFFC: The Prophet and AGOT: Daenerys VII.

Not sure how long you're proposing Lyanna survived after giving birth, but I doubt it was more than a few weeks.

[Ygrain]

9 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well to be fair, then we "think this" as opposed to "know this".  First we have to assume that Lyanna died as a result of childbirth.  And even with that assumption we can't assume that she died immediately can we?  After all Elia was bedridden for about six months after one of her pregnancies.  Lyanna's health could have been shattered from her pregnancy but perhaps she didn't succumb until months later.  And I suppose depending on the timing, Lyanna's death bed could have occurred after a second pregnancy.

See the comment above. Plus, Lyanna had been weak from fever, meaning, suffered from infection. Birthing bed + infection points to childbed fever, and that allows for weeks, not months.

[Megorova]

6 hours ago, Ygrain said:

See the comment above. Plus, Lyanna had been weak from fever, meaning, suffered from infection. Birthing bed + infection points to childbed fever, and that allows for weeks, not months.

Two weeks maximum. Examples:

Elizabeth of York gave birth to a child on 2 February, died on 11 February, 9 days later.

Catherine Parr - birth on 30 August, died on 5 September, 6 days.

Jean Webster - birth June 10 at 10:30 pm, died at 7:30 am on June 11, in less than 24 hours.

Émilie du Châtelet - birth on the night of 4 September, died on 10 September, 6 days.

Jane Seymour - birth on 12 October, died on 24 October, 12 days.

Jane Seymour's case, with 12 days, was the longest that I found. So it's more likely that Lyanna died days, not weeks, after giving birth to Jon.

Though, in Ned's memory Lyanna died in a bed of blood, which seems that she died hours, not days, after giving birth to her child. And even though she had a fever, the case of her death was not puerperal fever, but a bloodloss.

[Frey family reunion]

17 hours ago, Travis said:

That is why I posted earlier that we can't get all dogmatic about things that we dont already know the truth about (I think it was the Heresy thread). Often a writer just writes, without doing trigonometry (and perhaps hoping the reader is not versed in trigonometry).

I think it is very likely that the George intentionally writes this way so that he can "change" his mind later (if needed). Maybe not, but it's possible.

I agree that it’s silly to be too dogmatic about much in this story at this stage.  GRRM has said that he has yet to lay all of his cards on the table.  Which probably means that there is critical information that we haven’t been made privy to.

A lot depends on George’s motive in telling this tale.  If he’s merely trying to be subtle about Jon’s parentage, then I think the general idea of Rhaegar and Lyanna being Jon’s parents is probably a safe bet.  It’s certainly the conclusion that George is subtly (some would say not so subtly) pushing us towards.

But if George is purposely trying to be deceptive in how he’s presenting his clues and if his goal is to surprise even the most careful reader then I think all bets are off.   George did an audio commentary on one of blu rays of the HBO show.  In it, he said that he used to watch the Twilight Zone with his mother (at least I think it was the twilight zone).  He said that his mother could always figure out the plot twist before the end of the show.  He said that he wanted to write a story that would surprise someone like his mother.  Now would George’s mom have come to the conclusion of R + L?  Based on how George told the tale, I think probably so.

I understand the skepticism of Lyanna having conceived before her disappearance.  While I think it’s a definite possibility, I admit that the general timeline does trouble me.  It just may be too long.  

But to use a timeline to disregard the possibility of the Fisherman’s daughter seems pretty silly.  What we know of the events is simply too vague to be able to exclude it chronologically.  There are other reasons obviously to be skeptical about it, but I don’t think it can be completely ruled out based on timing.

All of this all may hinge on just how accurate a lot of the back story we’ve received so far is.  Especially if we are going to try and prove or disprove information by comparing Dany’s birth to Jon’s.  The unknown variables start to increase significantly.  

And that’s kind of the point of doing away with an omniscient narrator.  It does allow the author more room for surprise.  Why does Dany’s childhood memories of fields and a lemon tree seem to contradict what Viserys told her about her birth and her move to Braavos?  A time that she doesnt’ have any independent memory of.

Why does the author link the tower of joy and Lyanna’s death only in a dream as opposed to a conscious memory from Ned?  

Are the discrepancies we see in some characters memories of events significant?

A lot of this depends on how you view the series.

 

 

Edited August 14, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Frey family reunion]

8 hours ago, Ygrain said:

See the comment above. Plus, Lyanna had been weak from fever, meaning, suffered from infection. Birthing bed + infection points to childbed fever, and that allows for weeks, not months.

Well you are making an assumption that Lyanna was lying in a birthing bed.  And while I think that’s a pretty darn good theory based on what we’ve been presented it is still a theory.

After all we have Dany feverish and bleeding at the end of ADWD and it had been quite a while since she had been pregnant.

[Frey family reunion]

17 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Lyanna died in a "bed of blood," or birthing bed, as confirmed by AFFC: The Prophet and AGOT: Daenerys VII.

Not sure how long you're proposing Lyanna survived after giving birth, but I doubt it was more than a few weeks.

You will have to explain how AFFC “confirmed” that Lyanna was lying a birthing bed.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

56 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

You will have to explain how AFFC “confirmed” that Lyanna was lying a birthing bed.

That was the way of the cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (The Prophet, AFfC 1)

This is the only other time the term bed of blood is used in the text. Lyanna was in her bed of blood when Ned found her. 

[Frey family reunion]

18 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

That was the way of the cold world, where men fished the sea and dug in the ground and died whilst women brought forth short-lived children from beds of blood and pain. (The Prophet, AFfC 1)

This is the only other time the term bed of blood is used in the text. Lyanna was in her bed of blood when Ned found her. 

Perhaps I need to reread the definition of confirmation, but I don’t this this serves as a confirmation.  There are numerous ways that beds can become bloody.

Robert died in a bloody bed and even extracted a promise from Ned, just like Lyanna.  That isn’t evidence that Lyanna died of a wound from a boar.

I think the parallels make it a good theory, but it’s not a confirmation.  After all if the intent of the author is to lead us to the wrong conclusion, then this is one way he might accomplish it. 

ETA: And if we’re going to try to parallel the quote, does that mean that Lyanna’s child would have been “short-lived”?

Edited August 14, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

You will have to explain how AFFC “confirmed” that Lyanna was lying a birthing bed.

AGOT and AFFC confirmed that "bed of blood," "bloody bed," etc. refer to childbirth in ASOIAF. Thus, references to Lyanna's "bed of blood" clearly refer to her giving birth.

[Bael's Bastard]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Well you are making an assumption that Lyanna was lying in a birthing bed.  And while I think that’s a pretty darn good theory based on what we’ve been presented it is still a theory.

After all we have Dany feverish and bleeding at the end of ADWD and it had been quite a while since she had been pregnant.

No, she isn't making an assumption. The only other references in ASOIAF to "bed of blood" and "bloody bed" are exclusive to the birthing bed. This is clearly the implication of GRRM's use of "bed of blood."

[Bael's Bastard]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Perhaps I need to reread the definition of confirmation, but I don’t this this serves as a confirmation.  There are numerous ways that beds can become bloody.

Robert died in a bloody bed and even extracted a promise from Ned, just like Lyanna.  That isn’t evidence that Lyanna died of a wound from a boar.

I think the parallels make it a good theory, but it’s not a confirmation.  After all if the intent of the author is to lead us to the wrong conclusion, then this is one way he might accomplish it. 

ETA: And if we’re going to try to parallel the quote, does that mean that Lyanna’s child would have been “short-lived”?

Nope, try again, and do better.