R + L = J v.167

[Frey family reunion]

32 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

Nope, try again, and do better.

No I’m pretty clearly right on this one.  A repetition of a phrase in two different scenarios makes for a good theory.  It does not create a confirmation.  And you didn’t answer my question.

According to the quote beds of blood equates to short-lived children.  Did Lyanna give birth to a child who only lived a short time?

[Frey family reunion]

36 minutes ago, Bael's Bastard said:

No, she isn't making an assumption. The only other references in ASOIAF to "bed of blood" and "bloody bed" are exclusive to the birthing bed. This is clearly the implication of GRRM's use of "bed of blood."

An implication does not equal a confirmation.  I agree that there you have shown an implication.  Try to do better.

[Ygrain]

4 hours ago, Megorova said:

And even though she had a fever, the case of her death was not puerperal fever, but a bloodloss.

Fever had taken her strength points to the fever mightily contributing to her demise. If she bled to death, no need to mention the fever. Also, postpartum bleeding is a normal part of the birthing process (and puerperal fever actually makes it worse)

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

After all we have Dany feverish and bleeding at the end of ADWD and it had been quite a while since she had been pregnant.

Oh? How can you be so sure, if she herself is not sure when her last period was? She can't recall, it seems it has been a while, and she gets an unusually heavy flow after bad stomach cramps and diarrhoea... there has been a theory that she miscarried, and I consider it quite plausible.

But that's not the point - Dany is never described, nor thinks about herself, as in "bed of blood", so her condition and Lyanna's are not the same.

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Perhaps I need to reread the definition of confirmation, but I don’t this this serves as a confirmation.  There are numerous ways that beds can become bloody.

Robert died in a bloody bed and even extracted a promise from Ned, just like Lyanna.  That isn’t evidence that Lyanna died of a wound from a boar.

There was certainly blood on Robert's bed but GRRM doesn't describe it as "bed of blood/bloody bed". Nor does he use the term about any other bed soaked in blood. it is a specific phrase, with a limited use - he has "Lyanna in her bed of blood", and he has Mirri Maz Duur claim that she knows the secrets of the "bloody bed", which, from the context as well as from a clear reference later on , means "birthing bed". It used to be argued by some that we don't know for sure if "bed of blood" is really the same as "bloody bed", until that AFFC quote which made the connection explicit.

[Frey family reunion]

12 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Oh? How can you be so sure, if she herself is not sure when her last period was? She can't recall, it seems it has been a while, and she gets an unusually heavy flow after bad stomach cramps and diarrhoea... there has been a theory that she miscarried, and I consider it quite plausible.

But that's not the point - Dany is never described, nor thinks about herself, as in "bed of blood", so her condition and Lyanna's are not the same.

Well Dany didn’t have the luxury of being in a bed.  But regarding your theory that she miscarried, I agree that’s an interesting possibility.  But then doesn’t that raise another possibility for Lyanna?  If she had given birth to Jon some time earlier.  Perhaps months before Ned sits beside her, how can we be sure that perhaps Lyanna didn’t get pregnant a second time.  And her bed of blood is a miscarriage of her second child?

12 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

There was certainly blood on Robert's bed but GRRM doesn't describe it as "bed of blood/bloody bed". Nor does he use the term about any other bed soaked in blood. it is a specific phrase, with a limited use - he has "Lyanna in her bed of blood", and he has Mirri Maz Duur claim that she knows the secrets of the "bloody bed", which, from the context as well as from a clear reference later on , means "birthing bed". It used to be argued by some that we don't know for sure if "bed of blood" is really the same as "bloody bed", until that AFFC quote which made the connection explicit.

You’re making an assumption that Ned would have used the terminology in a very specific way, the same way that a midwife would use the term.   Presumably Ned didn’t know much about birthing babies.  For Ned, a bed of blood could simply be descriptive of the condition of Lyanna’s bed when she died and nothing more.  

Or he could very well be referring to a birthing bed.  Like I said it’s a good theory.  A very good theory.  It’s not, however, a confirmation that Lyanna died in a birthing bed.  

George could be repeating the phrase for the point of leading us to the wrong conclusions as opposed to the right one.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Ygrain]

17 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

An implication does not equal a confirmation.  I agree that there you have shown an implication.  Try to do better.

Oh, come on. 

1) Lyanna in her bed of blood - a phrase with a specific but unclear meaning because it lacks context

2) bloody bed = birthing bed - most likely the same thing but the different wording of the phrase allows for some doubt

3) women bring forth children in beds of blood - the meaning of the phrase is clarified by providing context, and it also confirms the assumption that bed of blood and bloody bed refer to the same thing

How do we know it's a phrase with a specific meaning? Because it is never used in any other context, even though there are situations involving beds and blood

 

[Ygrain]

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

Well Dany didn’t have the luxury of being in a bed.  But regarding your theory that she miscarried, I agree that’s an interesting possibility.  But then doesn’t that raise another possibility for Lyanna?  If she had given birth to Jon some time earlier.  Perhaps months before Ned sits beside her, how can we be sure that perhaps Lyanna didn’t get pregnant a second time.  And her bed of blood is a miscarriage of her second child?

Because baby Jon didn't exist in a vacuum and there are other pieces of information that need to fit in.

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

You’re making an assumption that Ned would have used the terminology in a very specific way, the same way that a midwife would use the term.

Presumably Ned didn’t know much about birthing babies.  For Ned, a bed of blood could simply be descriptive of the condition of Lyanna’s ged when she died and nothing more.  

One doesn't need to be a midwife to know facts of life, especially recalling the events 14 years later as a father of five.

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

Or he could very well be referring to a birthing bed.  Like I said it’s a good theory.  A very good theory.  It’s not, however, a confirmation that Lyanna died in a birthing bed.  

Only if you refuse to acknowledge a point. When Ned remember Lyanna in a bed of blood, he remembers Lyanna in a birthing bed, because that's the way GRRM uses the phrase.

Just now, Frey family reunion said:

George could be repeating the phrase for the point of leading us to the wrong conclusions as opposed to the right one.

Nonsense. He already established the thought in AGOT, by having MMD refer to birthing bed as bloody bed. If he wanted to muddy the reference, he would have used the term in situations when there was a bed and bloody sheets not connected to childbirth.

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, Ygrain said:

Only if you refuse to acknowledge a point. When Ned remember Lyanna in a bed of blood, he remembers Lyanna in a birthing bed, because that's the way GRRM uses the phrase.

Umm, no.  Me refusing to agree with you does not transform an implication, even a good implication into a confirmation.  Different characters using the term bloody bed or beds of blood does not confirm that Lyanna died in a birthing bed because Ned used the term bed of blood.  

[Frey family reunion]

4 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

Nonsense. He already established the thought in AGOT, by having MMD refer to birthing bed as bloody bed. If he wanted to muddy the reference, he would have used the term in situations when there was a bed and bloody sheets not connected to childbirth.

Not if he specifically wanted to lead the reader to a wrong conclusion.  

[Megorova]

5 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

If she had given birth to Jon some time earlier.  Perhaps months before Ned sits beside her, how can we be sure that perhaps Lyanna didn’t get pregnant a second time.  And her bed of blood is a miscarriage of her second child?

And who is the daddy fo this second child? Rhaegar left Dorne months ago. In a span of Rebellion there was not enough time for Rhaegar and Lyanna to conceive two pregnancies which resulted in childbirth. The duration of pregnancy is 40 weeks, which is 9 months and 10 days. So for two completed pregnancies, Lyanna would have needed 18 months and 20 days. But the Rebellion lasted for about a year, either a bit more than 12 months or a bit less than 12 months, but definitely not as long as 18 months.

Thus, if Lyanna's "bed of blood" is a childbirth-bed, and Ned got to Dorne in time before Lyanna's death, after she gave birth to her child, and if this child was conceived by Rhaegar, before he departed from Dorne to King's Landing, then this child was Lyanna's sole child, and there was and couldn't have been other child or children from her previous pregnancy. There was not enough time for carrying and birthing more than one child (or two if they were twins, but GRRM said that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, thus they weren't twins).

[Frey family reunion]

Just now, Megorova said:

And who is the daddy fo this second child? Rhaegar left Dorne months ago. In a span of Rebellion there was not enough time for Rhaegar and Lyanna to conceive two pregnancies which resulted in childbirth. The duration of pregnancy is 40 weeks, which is 9 months and 10 days. So for two completed pregnancies, Lyanna would have needed 18 months and 20 days. But the Rebellion lasted for about a year, either a bit more than 12 months or a bit less than 12 months, but definitely not as long as 18 months.

Thus, if Lyanna's "bed of blood" is a childbirth-bed, and Ned got to Dorne in time before Lyanna's death, after she gave birth to her child, and if this child was conceived by Rhaegar, before he departed from Dorne to King's Landing, then this child was Lyanna's sole child, and there was and couldn't have been other child or children from her previous pregnancy. There was not enough time for carrying and birthing more than one child (or two if they were twins, but GRRM said that Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, thus they weren't twins).

A miscarriage could occur anytime during the course of a pregnancy. 

[Megorova]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

A miscarriage could occur anytime during the course of a pregnancy. 

Yes, it could. But what do you mean by this?

[Frey family reunion]

1 minute ago, Megorova said:

Yes, it could. But what do you mean by this?

Lyanna would not have needed 18 months plus to have miscarried a second child.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Frey family reunion

[Ygrain]

1 hour ago, Frey family reunion said:

Umm, no.  Me refusing to agree with you does not transform an implication, even a good implication into a confirmation.  Different characters using the term bloody bed or beds of blood does not confirm that Lyanna died in a birthing bed because Ned used the term bed of blood.  

Well. Let's presume that you are reading a text in a foreign language and you come across a word XXX that you are not familiar with and do not have the context to deduce the meaning. Then you come across the word XXY, for which you are provided a meaning and the similarity allows you to make a deduction about XXX. And then you come across XXX, this time in a context where the meaning is clear, and, yeah, it is indeed related to XXY and your deduction of XXX was correct. In other words, the meaning is confirmed.

This is exactly how deducing the meaning of unknown words works, it is the same as we did with bed of blood, and if you were not biased, you would acknowledge it.

[Megorova]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Lyanna would not have needed 18 months plus to have miscarried a second child.

The timing doesn't work.

Based on everything in five ASOIAF's books, Dany's birthday is in first half of a year, no earlier than in March (based on traveling of her khalasar after Rhaego's birth) and no later than in June. Jon is 8-9 months older, thus he was born no earlier than July-August and no later than September-October of 283.

1. July.

2. August.

3. September. 1.

4. October. 2.

5. November. 3.

6. December. 4.

7. January. 5.

8. February. 6.

9. March. 7.

10. April. 8.

11. May. 9.

12 June. 10*

(If he was born in the middle of a month, for example in the middle of July, then she could have been born 8-9 month later - thru early February to the middle of April. And if he was born in second half of September, then she could have been born 8-9 months later - from middle of May to end of June.)

 

Rhaegar departed from Lyanna at least 4 months prior Ned's arrival there. Dorne -> KL (75 days) -> Trident (11 days) -> KL (11 days) -> Storm's End (11 days) -> Tower of Joy (16,5 days by ship) - minimum 124 days (a bit over 4 months) of traveling time.

If Jon was born in July-August, then Ned would have arrived to the Tower of Joy 4 months later, in November-December. But if Jon was born later than in August, then not only Ned wouldn't have arrived to TOJ still in 283, even the Battle at Trident would have occured in 284, not in 283. But that's not what happened. Thus, your timing is wrong. There's no time for two pregnancies, even if one of them was incomplete.

Rhaegar couldn't have been still at Dorne even in July, and that's the earliest possible month for Jon's birth, based on that "8-9 months older than Dany". If Jon was born in early July, and Rhaegar departed from Dorne only after Jon's birth, and after impregnating Lyanna for the second time, then the Battle at Trident would have occured minimum 86 days later, in the last 4-5 days of September. The timing of Dany's conception is not far from the time of Rhaegar's death, she was born 9 months after her mother's departure from KL, shortly prior or soon after the Battle at Trident. And Jon is 8-9 months older than Dany, so he was born around the time of Trident's battle, about 1 month after it, if he is 8 months older than Dany. Jon wasn't, just COULDN'T have been born at the time of Rhaegar's departure from Dorne, which was months prior the Battle at Trident (2+ months, or 86 days <- and that's only traveling time, without inclusion for preparations for traveling and battles).

In case if Jon was born in September or October, then Rhaegar would have arrived to Trident in the last 4-5 days of November or December. And if Ned went to KL and Storm's End only after that, then he would have arrived to the Tower of Joy no sooner than in early January or early February of 284. But it is known that Lyanna died in 283. Thus, again the timing doesn't work.

Based on the time required for all that traveling - Rhaegar departed from Dorne months BEFORE Jon's birth, not after.

Edited August 14, 2020 by Megorova

[Bael's Bastard]

6 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

No I’m pretty clearly right on this one.  A repetition of a phrase in two different scenarios makes for a good theory.  It does not create a confirmation.  And you didn’t answer my question.

According to the quote beds of blood equates to short-lived children.  Did Lyanna give birth to a child who only lived a short time?

You're embarrassing yourself, stop while you're way way behind.

[Bael's Bastard]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Not if he specifically wanted to lead the reader to a wrong conclusion.  

Clearly he can smack some readers in the face with the right conclusion and they will still stretch for a wrong one

[Khal Rhaego Targaryen]

The more I read the arguments to support r+l=j the more crackpot this theory gets 

[Wolfking007]

15 hours ago, Ygrain said:

Oh, come on. 

1) Lyanna in her bed of blood - a phrase with a specific but unclear meaning because it lacks context

2) bloody bed = birthing bed - most likely the same thing but the different wording of the phrase allows for some doubt

3) women bring forth children in beds of blood - the meaning of the phrase is clarified by providing context, and it also confirms the assumption that bed of blood and bloody bed refer to the same thing

How do we know it's a phrase with a specific meaning? Because it is never used in any other context, even though there are situations involving beds and blood

 

"beds and blood" would be perfect words for House Bronn

[TheLastWolf]

5 hours ago, Khal Rhaego Targaryen said:

The more I read the arguments to support r+l=j the more crackpot this theory gets 

, though I have contributed to some of the crackpots, both to RLJ and alternative parentage theories. 

I think that the Jon parentage theories must end, or at least take a break. Because one thing is for sure, Jon is Ned's son and a true Stark with their First men heritage.

Not biologically (though that is not to be dismissed outright), but I mean in every other sense. Hope you get the gist. Let Jon's biological parents be Rhaegar-Lyanna or Brandon/Ned-Lyanna (that gross incest ship) or Howland-Lyanna or Mance-Lyanna or Ned-Ashara or Ned-Wylla or anydamnbody like Mata Hari and Sauron .....

.... but Jon's father in every way was Ned and will be Ned. Contributing 23 chromosomes (the rest is surely Stark blood as is evident in Jon's appearance) is not gonna make Rhaegar the papa. Like how Rey chose to be a Skywalker when she was a Palpatine by blood. There is always another choice.

Maybe the revealing of his parentage will have political repurcussions, but not in his character. Jon is not gonna go Edric storm on Rhaegar (if R is the daddy and its revealed).

Moreover Jon could have been born with some of his non-stark parent's traits (Lyanna's lover or Ned's) but Nature and chance chose him to be a Stark and that is what he is and what he will be. 

Jon (Stark) will be the alpha direwolf of his pack and the Rains of Castamere will be forgotten after the Boltons and Freys are gone through. Maybe Red wedding 2.0 or something. There are a lot of characters hungry for revenge, from Arya and Nymeria's pack to UnCat Stoneheart and the BwB, Jon Stark/Snow/ Targ/Reed/plain stark/Rayder/Dayne/Trump etc etc to Rickon of Skagos (with Cannibals, that is important) to Alayne/Sansa with the Vale,so there is absolutely no way the Freys and Boltons are not going to get their asses whupped (or at least an attempt will be made) 

My like of the North and hatred of the slimy backstabbing cowardly opportunistic traitors has nothing to do with what is going to happen to the latter. And I bet my ass it will. 

 To sum up, Jon is Ned's son in all but... genetics. (And that may also be wrong if  Ned ends up being Jon's biological dad as from the beginning ) 

[Frey family reunion]

15 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:

You're embarrassing yourself, stop while you're way way behind.

You are correct.  It is embarrassing to engage in a conversation with you.  And pointless.  So I think I’ll stop.