R + L = J v.167

[John Suburbs]

22 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

You missed the point of what I said. It doesn't require some extravagant explanation for why people would think a 15 year old betrothed girl running off with a married guy (without her father's permission, obviously) was kidnapping because that scenario essentially is kidnapping in their world regardless of her wishes (and it would also be kidnapping in our society, though not quite for the same reason of course).

We don't know where exactly they did meet up, other than that it was near Harrenhal. Rhaegar has features that make him very easily identifiable. Lyanna presumably wasn't randomly all by herself near Harrenhal. It's not exactly theory-breaking to assume somebody saw and recognized them, even if they tried to be discrete. This is a much more logical conclusion than "Rhaegar and Lyanna were never together at all and actually Aerys knocked her up."

He had a wife at Dragonstone, and he/they may have wanted to go somewhere they couldn't be easily found by anyone and everyone. And from a storytelling perspective, Lyanna being at Dragonstone just isn't convenient to contrive a scenario where Ned finds Lyanna and her baby virtually by himself and is able to hide knowledge of her giving birth from the public (and Robert, ultimately).

We don't know that Lyanna was ok with all of that. We also don't know how well-informed she was of events going on as they happened, how long it took her to be informed, etc. 

I don't think Lyanna was "perfectly willing to sacrifice all their lives," I think she made a foolish decision that had disastrous unintended consequences. In addition, Ned is a kind-hearted guy that loved his sister and cared deeply about protecting the innocent (like his newborn nephew). It's not difficult to understand why he'd claim and care for Jon in this situation. Also, I want to point out that while Ned clearly does still love Lyanna and cherish her memory, he also explicitly states that the wolfsblood drove her (and Brandon) to an early grave, showing that he does think she bears some responsibility for her fate. If she was just an innocent victim of a brutal kidnapping and rape by Aerys, why would he think that?

Actually, nobody ever states this in the text, so I'm not sure where the "supposedly" is coming from here. I admit there's definitely some mystery as to explaining/justifying the actions of the KG, what orders they were given and my whom, etc. but there are a ton of possibilities because we just don't know much about that at this point. So assuming one specific scenario as the only alternative and then dismissing it because you don't find it plausible doesn't prove anything.

It's not just that there's no evidence to support ALJ to the exclusion of everything else, there's simply no evidence for it at all. Nobody even remotely hints at Aerys and Lyanna being a thing (consensually or not) in any way, shape, or form, or that they were ever in the same place at any point after the Harrenhal tournament. 

Sorry, but you missed my point. How would anyone even know that Lyanna ran off with anyone, let alone Rhaegar, unless they went out of their way to make it known? Why would they not take even the simplest steps to keep their elopement a secret? If this was an elopement, then the first word that anything was wrong should have been that Lyanna was missing, which would have put House Stark on immediate alert, not casually planning a wedding.

And the fact remains that we don't know that they met up at all. That's merely the story the some unknown person told to Brandon, and it is a highly unlikely story for the reasons I mentioned above. Only a handful of people know Rhaegar Targaryen by sight, so it is unlikely that any commoners would know who he was unless he came along with his distinctive armor and features with his white-blonde hair blowing in the wind -- not even a hooded cloak to keep him warm in the dead of winter. And again, this would mean he and Lyanna chose to elope in a public place, in broad daylight, publicly identifying themselves to a bunch of strangers. Why?

If Lyanna is willingly eloping with Rhaegar, then why is she bringing others to their rendezvous? And why are they meeting up in a place where anyone would see them rather than some secret spot, such as the laughing tree?

If Rhaegar doesn't care what the rest of the realm thinks about him and Lyanna, why should he care what his wife thinks? He's abandoning her anyway or, as some would have it, she is perfectly fine with him seeking someone else to produce the third head of the dragon. And the only reason he would have to worry about someone looking for him in relation to Lyanna's disappearance is if he simply snatched her in front of a bunch of strangers without taking the slightest measure to hide his identity. So again, does Rhaegar honestly think himself to be so untouchable that he can do this with no repercussions?

Rhaegar is not basing his decisions as a character in a story. He is basing them on real-world circumstances. Martin takes great pains to ensure his characters act and react in a realistic manner, not to simplify the story. If he thought like that, the series would be finished by now.

According to the elopement theory, she had to have been OK with all of the fallout from her utterly selfish decision. Is she with Rhaegar willingly or not?

Her wolf blood led her to get involved at Harrenhal, which was the start of all this trouble. But in the end he forgives her and agrees to help her when things spun out of her control. If she was a willing participant with Rhaegar while her family is being killed and blood is being spilt across the land, that is an entirely different manner. And it apparently didn't take Hightower long to find out where they were, so they could not have been completely ignorant over the fallout of their incredibly selfish decision.

The prevailing theory is that the vow the KG swore was to Rhaegar as their new king, and then to Jon has his rightful heir. But that is bunk because if either this kidnap or elopement story is true then Rhaegar has shown himself to be just as mad, if not madder, than his father.

The evidence is as I showed you. It's counter-evidence, actually, because it highlights the series of extremely unlikely reactions from numerous players in this little drama if the kidnap/elopement story is true. However, they do fit the scenario in which Aerys is the instigator here. Not proof by any means, but at least it fits plausibly with what we actually know. And, of course, you could still wind up with RLJ even if Rhaegar did not make off with Lyanna.

 

 

[SFDanny]

On 2/25/2021 at 9:38 AM, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

You missed the point of what I said. It doesn't require some extravagant explanation for why people would think a 15 year old betrothed girl running off with a married guy (without her father's permission, obviously) was kidnapping because that scenario essentially is kidnapping in their world regardless of her wishes (and it would also be kidnapping in our society, though not quite for the same reason of course).

While I think I agree with most of this, I think it is also worth taking a closer look at the usage of the word "kidnapping" in the Westerosi context. "Theft" might be the more appropriate term when used concerning Rhaegar's actions. Combined with "rebellion" by Lyanna and I think we get closer to the cause of the outrage that follows Rhaegar and Lyanna running off together.

It not really a question of whether or not Lyanna is a victim in most people's eyes, but rather the damage done to her House, by both Lyanna and Rhaegar that is in question. The damage done to Lord Rickard's "rights," and Aerys's rights as well.

Nor does Lyanna's age really much enter into it. We see many marriages by children younger than she was and no one bats an eye at them. Btw we don't know her age when the "kidnapping" takes place. Children become adults at sixteen, but they are not really free to marry whomever they wish afterwards. Perhaps in a strictly legal sense, but in every other way the custom dictates children follow the dictates of their fathers. The repercussion of not following those dictates range from Tyrion and Tysha's example at the worst, to fatherly acceptance depending on the individuals.

Edited February 26, 2021 by SFDanny

[corbon]

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

OK, but if Lyanna did run off willingly, then how did the kidnap story start?

Someone lied, someone saw something from afar without knowledge of what it was exactly, someone made wrong assumptions, someone (like Robert for example) just refused to believe any alternative. There are so many options that this isn't a reasonable question to ask at this stage.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

Why would they meet up in a public place where people know who they are?

There is no necessity (or indication) that they did. So, again, this is not a reasonable question to be asking.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

Why would they go anywhere they can be identified?

There is no necessity or indication that they did. So, once again, not a reasonable question to ask.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

Why take her all the way across the country to some bleak tower in the marches when Dragonstone is only a short boat trip away?

Because its isolated and they are unlikely to be found there - unlike Dragonstone.

Because if their location is known then there is a predictable chance of  a violent attempt to get her back or take revenge. A possibility that leads to major problems for everyone. Remaining hidden removes this option.

Unfortunately, Brandon (whose place it was not) and Aerys acted with incredible and impossible to predict (at least on Brandon's part) stupidity and the situation turned into a disaster anyway. 
But, assuming the 'abduction' was necessary, what is the best way to keep things from getting worse? Remain hidden. Don't give the Starks a target. Force Rickard and Aerys to talk (action being unproductive given Lyanna and Rhaegar's whereabouts are unknown), with both in agreement (neither Aerys nor Rickard want Rhaegar and Lyanna together).  

And this is only one reason. There are other potential answers.
The fact is, HE DID. Factor that in to whatever narrative you try to make work.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

And why would Lyanna be OK with this scurrilous story about the love of her life being a kidnapper and a child-rapist,

Who says she is ok with the story - or even aware of it?
No one. 

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

particularly when the situation devolves to the point where her father and brother are being tortuously executed in the Red Keep and the realm goes to war with itself?

That situation happens when she is out of contact with events. She almost certainly doesn't know of it until after its all happened. So no, there is no indication she might be 'ok with it'.
And it shouldn't have happened. There is no way Brandon should have ridden to the Red Keep, when Rhaegar (and Lyanna) weren't even there, and challenged Aerys in teh reckless manner he did. It wasn't his place, it was Rickards, and there was no positive potential outcome in the manner he acted. 

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

And why would Ned feel obligated to make this life-altering promise to a sister who was perfectly willing to sacrifice all their lives just so she could be happy with her prince?

Because thats not what happened.

Instead of assuming a stupid narrative, then complaining it doesn't fit, try working on a narrative that does fit.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

No, we have no conclusive proof that Aerys did any of these things. All we have are the myriad ways he acted after the supposed kidnapping. For years now, Aerys has suspected Rhaegar of trying to steal his crown,

Thats not true, or at least a vastly overstated case.
Aerys and Rhaegar have had issues. Off and on. Rhaegar is popular Aerys is increasingly paranoid. They sometimes clash. But they are not enemies. They are both Targaryens, committed to the Targaryen cause. Rhaegar is Aerys' heir.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

and now suddenly Rhaegar goes and does something like this. Yet, when Brandon comes banging at his gates, Aerys not only covers for Rhaegar but executes his accusers. Why?

Because the accusation is an attack on the crown and House Targaryen. 

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

This would have been the perfect opportunity to expose his son for the madman that he is

He's not a madman and not Aerys' enemy. He is in fact Aerys' most tightly bound ultimate ally. They just don't always get along.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

and at the very least disinherit him while naming his favorite, Viserys, as the new Prince of Dragonstone.

Except Viserys isn't his 'favourite'. Viserys isn't even in the realistic picture, being too young as yet to be involved politically.

Rhaegar is still the ultimate hope and glory of House Targaryen, and Aerys, as evidenced by Aerys' actions. Aerys defends Rhaegar (by default) and ultimately puts him in charge of the Targaryen forces.

The narrative that Aerys favoured Viserys over Rhaegar is bullshit. Viserys was only named heir after Rhaegar died
At best Viserys was favoured over Rhaegar's kids (who had a 'dornish smell' or some such) and even that only happens after Rhaegar is dead adnd Rhaegar's kids are even less suitable age to be heir than Viserys.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

And then he goes even further by putting Rhaegar -- who has zero military experience and has never even been in a battle let alone commanded a host

This is not known actually. Nor is it relevant. It is pure negative spite to support a narrative.

Rhaegar has as much or more military and battle experience when he is given command as Ned or Robert did when they took command - almost certainly vastly more than Ned.

At the beginning of a war, after a long period of peace, almost no one has experience. Thats the effect of peace.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

-- in charge of an army that can be used to usurp the crown.

Once again, instead of creating stupid narratives that runs counter to the evidence, then complaining that the evidence doesn't make sense, try building a narrative that fits the evidence instead.

Aerys gave command to Rhaegar. Thats what happened. Even the KG assignments were under his control, Thats what happened. Aerys even tried to give Rhaegar command earlier, but gave it to JonCon as 'Rhaegar-like' when Rhaegar couldn't be found.

So given that these are facts, build a narrative that works with these facts rather than complaining about how these facts don't work with your narrative.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

And finally, the KG at the tower. Supposedly, they have turned their cloaks on Aerys in order to support Rhaegar.

Nope. Bullshit narrative again.

Quote

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells."

 

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

All three of them at once? And somehow they still retain the reputation as being among the most noble, honorable kights that chivalry has ever produced?

Fix your narrative and these flase problems disappear.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

And they apparently have had enough of Aerys' madness so now they will support a prince who has just committed an act that is far madder than anything Aerys has done?

Or perhaps that act wasn't mad at all.

Fix your narratve to fit the facts.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

So regardless of whether the kidnapping is true or not, this whole story leads to an endless series of conflicts with the text. Everyone is doing the exact opposite of what they should be doing.

And all that means, is that the story isn't right. FIx the story and all the actors act their part according to their viesws, actions and chracter and the whole thing is completely consistent.

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

There may not be evidence to support ALJ to the exclusion of all other possibilities, at all

FTFY

On 2/26/2021 at 5:22 AM, John Suburbs said:

but there is a wealth of evidence that disputes RLJ.

There is no evidence that disputes RL=J that stands up to any scrutiny. It is always, without exception, flawed and leads to clashes with the text.

There is a lot we don't know.
Its the assumptions made to fill in the gaps that screw up the narrative every time. 

Find the right narrative, it will fit all the known facts, and have all the characters acting with internal consistency.
But if you are committed against some narrative or other, so refuse to fit to all the facts and characterisations, then you will fail. Every time. 

[Nevets]

On ‎2‎/‎26‎/‎2021 at 10:04 AM, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, but you missed my point. How would anyone even know that Lyanna ran off with anyone, let alone Rhaegar, unless they went out of their way to make it known? Why would they not take even the simplest steps to keep their elopement a secret? If this was an elopement, then the first word that anything was wrong should have been that Lyanna was missing, which would have put House Stark on immediate alert, not casually planning a wedding.

And the fact remains that we don't know that they met up at all. That's merely the story the some unknown person told to Brandon, and it is a highly unlikely story for the reasons I mentioned above. Only a handful of people know Rhaegar Targaryen by sight, so it is unlikely that any commoners would know who he was unless he came along with his distinctive armor and features with his white-blonde hair blowing in the wind -- not even a hooded cloak to keep him warm in the dead of winter. And again, this would mean he and Lyanna chose to elope in a public place, in broad daylight, publicly identifying themselves to a bunch of strangers. Why?

If Lyanna is willingly eloping with Rhaegar, then why is she bringing others to their rendezvous? And why are they meeting up in a place where anyone would see them rather than some secret spot, such as the laughing tree?

If Rhaegar doesn't care what the rest of the realm thinks about him and Lyanna, why should he care what his wife thinks? He's abandoning her anyway or, as some would have it, she is perfectly fine with him seeking someone else to produce the third head of the dragon. And the only reason he would have to worry about someone looking for him in relation to Lyanna's disappearance is if he simply snatched her in front of a bunch of strangers without taking the slightest measure to hide his identity. So again, does Rhaegar honestly think himself to be so untouchable that he can do this with no repercussions?

Rhaegar is not basing his decisions as a character in a story. He is basing them on real-world circumstances. Martin takes great pains to ensure his characters act and react in a realistic manner, not to simplify the story. If he thought like that, the series would be finished by now.

According to the elopement theory, she had to have been OK with all of the fallout from her utterly selfish decision. Is she with Rhaegar willingly or not?

Her wolf blood led her to get involved at Harrenhal, which was the start of all this trouble. But in the end he forgives her and agrees to help her when things spun out of her control. If she was a willing participant with Rhaegar while her family is being killed and blood is being spilt across the land, that is an entirely different manner. And it apparently didn't take Hightower long to find out where they were, so they could not have been completely ignorant over the fallout of their incredibly selfish decision.

The prevailing theory is that the vow the KG swore was to Rhaegar as their new king, and then to Jon has his rightful heir. But that is bunk because if either this kidnap or elopement story is true then Rhaegar has shown himself to be just as mad, if not madder, than his father.

The evidence is as I showed you. It's counter-evidence, actually, because it highlights the series of extremely unlikely reactions from numerous players in this little drama if the kidnap/elopement story is true. However, they do fit the scenario in which Aerys is the instigator here. Not proof by any means, but at least it fits plausibly with what we actually know. And, of course, you could still wind up with RLJ even if Rhaegar did not make off with Lyanna.

 

 

You seem to be under the impression that Lyanna was by herself when taken.  This is doubtful  A girl of her age and status is unlikely to be able to go gallivanting around the countryside unaccompanied.  She can probably wander around Harrenhal and the village outside the walls, if there is one.  But I think she is going to need somebody with her otherwise.

Brandon was on his way to his wedding when he was notified of the kidnapping.  It stands to reason that Lyanna may have been as well.  In which case, there would be multiple witnesses, most of whom would recognize Rhaegar from the tournament.

My guess is that Rhaegar was heavily influenced by prophecy, and felt that he needed Lyanna to fulfill it (probably the Prince that was promised).  In that event, he probably didn't care about being recognized, and might have expected to somehow make it up to the Starks later.  Unfortunately, if that is the case, Aerys's action put paid to that idea.

Given Ned's sanguine attitude to the whole affair, plus his comments to Arya about Lyanna's wolf blood, I am guessing that she was not an entirely unwilling participant.  I doubt she had any idea of the consequences that would result, or was made aware of subsequent events in any case.  Even if she was, I doubt she was in a position to do anything about it.

 

[Buried Treasure]

It's very easy to imagine a scenario where Lyanna went willingly with Rhaegar, but it was still described as kidnapping by 3rd parties.

 

If Lyanna was with companions or household guards who objected to her leaving with Rhaegar, then all it would have taken would have Rhaegar touching his hand to swordhilt to get them to back down. He was the crown prince, and it would be a  death sentence to cross swords with him. 

Then those guards might have reported that Lyanna was taken at swordpoint, because they were relating their own feelings of impotence and frustration, rather than the absent Lyanna's opinions.

[John Suburbs]

20 hours ago, corbon said:

Someone lied, someone saw something from afar without knowledge of what it was exactly, someone made wrong assumptions, someone (like Robert for example) just refused to believe any alternative. There are so many options that this isn't a reasonable question to ask at this stage.

There is no necessity (or indication) that they did. So, again, this is not a reasonable question to be asking.

There is no necessity or indication that they did. So, once again, not a reasonable question to ask.

Because its isolated and they are unlikely to be found there - unlike Dragonstone.

Because if their location is known then there is a predictable chance of  a violent attempt to get her back or take revenge. A possibility that leads to major problems for everyone. Remaining hidden removes this option.

Unfortunately, Brandon (whose place it was not) and Aerys acted with incredible and impossible to predict (at least on Brandon's part) stupidity and the situation turned into a disaster anyway. 
But, assuming the 'abduction' was necessary, what is the best way to keep things from getting worse? Remain hidden. Don't give the Starks a target. Force Rickard and Aerys to talk (action being unproductive given Lyanna and Rhaegar's whereabouts are unknown), with both in agreement (neither Aerys nor Rickard want Rhaegar and Lyanna together).  

And this is only one reason. There are other potential answers.
The fact is, HE DID. Factor that in to whatever narrative you try to make work.

Who says she is ok with the story - or even aware of it?
No one. 

That situation happens when she is out of contact with events. She almost certainly doesn't know of it until after its all happened. So no, there is no indication she might be 'ok with it'.
And it shouldn't have happened. There is no way Brandon should have ridden to the Red Keep, when Rhaegar (and Lyanna) weren't even there, and challenged Aerys in teh reckless manner he did. It wasn't his place, it was Rickards, and there was no positive potential outcome in the manner he acted. 

Because thats not what happened.

Instead of assuming a stupid narrative, then complaining it doesn't fit, try working on a narrative that does fit.

Thats not true, or at least a vastly overstated case.
Aerys and Rhaegar have had issues. Off and on. Rhaegar is popular Aerys is increasingly paranoid. They sometimes clash. But they are not enemies. They are both Targaryens, committed to the Targaryen cause. Rhaegar is Aerys' heir.

Because the accusation is an attack on the crown and House Targaryen. 

He's not a madman and not Aerys' enemy. He is in fact Aerys' most tightly bound ultimate ally. They just don't always get along.

Except Viserys isn't his 'favourite'. Viserys isn't even in the realistic picture, being too young as yet to be involved politically.

Rhaegar is still the ultimate hope and glory of House Targaryen, and Aerys, as evidenced by Aerys' actions. Aerys defends Rhaegar (by default) and ultimately puts him in charge of the Targaryen forces.

The narrative that Aerys favoured Viserys over Rhaegar is bullshit. Viserys was only named heir after Rhaegar died
At best Viserys was favoured over Rhaegar's kids (who had a 'dornish smell' or some such) and even that only happens after Rhaegar is dead adnd Rhaegar's kids are even less suitable age to be heir than Viserys.

This is not known actually. Nor is it relevant. It is pure negative spite to support a narrative.

Rhaegar has as much or more military and battle experience when he is given command as Ned or Robert did when they took command - almost certainly vastly more than Ned.

At the beginning of a war, after a long period of peace, almost no one has experience. Thats the effect of peace.

Once again, instead of creating stupid narratives that runs counter to the evidence, then complaining that the evidence doesn't make sense, try building a narrative that fits the evidence instead.

Aerys gave command to Rhaegar. Thats what happened. Even the KG assignments were under his control, Thats what happened. Aerys even tried to give Rhaegar command earlier, but gave it to JonCon as 'Rhaegar-like' when Rhaegar couldn't be found.

So given that these are facts, build a narrative that works with these facts rather than complaining about how these facts don't work with your narrative.

Nope. Bullshit narrative again.

 

Fix your narrative and these flase problems disappear.

Or perhaps that act wasn't mad at all.

Fix your narratve to fit the facts.

And all that means, is that the story isn't right. FIx the story and all the actors act their part according to their viesws, actions and chracter and the whole thing is completely consistent.

FTFY

There is no evidence that disputes RL=J that stands up to any scrutiny. It is always, without exception, flawed and leads to clashes with the text.

There is a lot we don't know.
Its the assumptions made to fill in the gaps that screw up the narrative every time. 

Find the right narrative, it will fit all the known facts, and have all the characters acting with internal consistency.
But if you are committed against some narrative or other, so refuse to fit to all the facts and characterisations, then you will fail. Every time. 

So they didn't bother to elope at night. They didn't bother to hide their identities. There are only a few hundred people in the entire world who know what they look like up close, and yet someone from far away just happened to see this rendezvous and was able to identify them as Rhaegar and Lyanna . . . Sorry, none of this is even plausible let alone likely. Someone spread this false tale, deliberately.

He could take her to Dragonstone and no one would ever know she was there. And no one would have any reason to suspect Rhaegar in her disappearance, unless, of course, they went out of their way to make sure he could be connected to it.

If Rhaegar is so worried about what the Starks would do or what Aerys would do, then why is he not taking even the most basic steps to keep it a secret that he has Lyanna at all?

The fact is, we don't know that Rhaegar did anything. There is nothing in the text, absolutely nothing, that confirms Rhaegar was with Lyanna at any time after Harrenhal.

So Lyanna runs off with Rhaegar willingly and then remains completely ignorant about everything that followed? Hightower certainly had no problem finding them. And even if she could not have predicted the fallout, it still occurred because of her selfishness. She defied her father's wishes that she marry Robert and ran off to have an illegitimate child with the prince. Everything else that happened was caused by her decision to do this. So sorry, but no, there is no reason why Ned would or should simply brush this off to make such a life-altering promise.

The romantic love story surrounding RLJ is the narrative that doesn't fit. Not one single person in this entire drama is doing what they should be doing if this is what happened. Making up excuses for the highly implausible over and over again is not finding a narrative that fits the facts. It's turning a blind eye to what really happened.

Aerys is highly suspicious that Rhaegar is trying to steal his crown, has been since before Duskendale. He went all the way to Harrenhal to put a stop to it. Now here is the perfect opportunity to get rid of him, but Aerys actually covers for him. Yet another person in the long list of persons doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.

Aerys doted on Viserys. He had the KG watch over him 24/7. Even Rhaella could not be alone with him. He had the milk from his wet nurse tasted. He burnt all the gifts sent by all the lords of Westeros. And Vis was immediately named heir right after the Trident, even though Aegon was still alive. Does that sound like bullshit to you?

Have you read the book? What battles had Rhaegar fought before the Trident? What armies had he led? He wasn't even at Duskendale. Rhaegar has zero military experience, has never even swung a sword in anger, unlike Dayne, Hightower, Lewyn and probably a half dozen other available lords. There is absolutely no reason why Aerys would want to give his son an army if he knew that Rhaegar was capable of such madness and was desirous of the throne. Ned was the newly-made Lord of Winterfell; command fell to him by default, as it did with Robert. Jon Arryn was an experienced commander, as was Hoster Tully.

Yes, the KG turning their cloaks on Aerys in favor of Rhaegar is a bullshit narrative. That was my point, and yet large numbers of readers accept this anyway. So if that's not what happened, then why were they there?

How could stealing Lyanna not have been mad? What outcome should D, H and W have expected? It goes against everything noble, honorable and chivalrous that they supposedly stand for. In your "narrative that fits the facts" are all three of these nights just faking it? They're actually depraved scumbags like Whent and Blount?

So yes I agree, we need to find a narrative that fits the facts. Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna does not fit the facts. Lyanna running away with Rhaegar does not fit the facts. Aerys suddenly welcoming Rhaegar back into his trust does not fit the facts. Three KG turning traitor to their king does not fit the facts. You know what does fit the facts? Rhaegar having nothing to do with this and it was Aerys who kidnapped them both and then grew increasingly desperate as the situation grew out of control.

 

[John Suburbs]

17 hours ago, Nevets said:

You seem to be under the impression that Lyanna was by herself when taken.  This is doubtful  A girl of her age and status is unlikely to be able to go gallivanting around the countryside unaccompanied.  She can probably wander around Harrenhal and the village outside the walls, if there is one.  But I think she is going to need somebody with her otherwise.

Brandon was on his way to his wedding when he was notified of the kidnapping.  It stands to reason that Lyanna may have been as well.  In which case, there would be multiple witnesses, most of whom would recognize Rhaegar from the tournament.

My guess is that Rhaegar was heavily influenced by prophecy, and felt that he needed Lyanna to fulfill it (probably the Prince that was promised).  In that event, he probably didn't care about being recognized, and might have expected to somehow make it up to the Starks later.  Unfortunately, if that is the case, Aerys's action put paid to that idea.

Given Ned's sanguine attitude to the whole affair, plus his comments to Arya about Lyanna's wolf blood, I am guessing that she was not an entirely unwilling participant.  I doubt she had any idea of the consequences that would result, or was made aware of subsequent events in any case.  Even if she was, I doubt she was in a position to do anything about it.

 

So in your scenario, she was, in fact, kidnapped? If she was eloping, why would she bring a tail of guards with her, and why would these guards object to her riding off willingly with the prince? Guards are there for protection, not to order her about.

Why would Rhaegar fall upon Lyanna in broad daylight, in front of a crowd of people, slay all her guards, and make off with her? Does he not care that this would send alarms throughout the kingdom and set every house in the realm to be on watch for them? Wouldn't he take even the slightest precautions to disguise himself? Only another noble would recognize Rhaegar. Commoners would only know him by his armor and his feathers. And again, this means the kidnapping happened in broad daylight in front of numerous people. Why is Rhaegar going out of his way to make sure the realm knows right away that he has done this terrible thing?

And in all of the descriptions and recollections of Rhaegar, even from those who fought against him, where is there the slightest indication that he would do something so completely bonkers? If it's the prophecy he's after, why is he not taking even the slightest measures to hide what he is doing? If it's so important to him, why is he going out of his way to up the risk of getting caught before this prophecy can be fulfilled?

He's going to make it up to the Starks later? How? He's just taken their only daughter and defiled her just because of some prophecy he read in a book. How on earth is he going to make this up?

The only way I can see it going down this way is if he was under the influence of some spell or a love potion. Maggy the Frog makes the latter. I'd be interested to know exactly who the "friends and companions" were at this kidnapping.

I agree with your last point. If R&L did in fact make off together, Lyanna was a willing participant. But this makes the existence of the kidnapping story all the more suspect because, again, if they eloped, why would they do it where anyone could see? And if the kidnapping never happened, then how did the story get started? And how could it have spread so quickly so that the first word reaching Brandon was that she had been kidnapped and not that she was just missing?

Even if Lyanna could not predict the consequences of this, it was still her mad, selfish act that lead to the deaths of her father and brother and war across the land. There is no reason why Ned would need to promise her anything after this.

 

 

[corbon]

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So they didn't bother to elope at night. They didn't bother to hide their identities.

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe they did and got found out, recognised, whatever. Like Cat did when she ran into Tyrion at the Inn of the Crossroads. Myabe the didn't, and people knew, but the situation was misunderstood, or deliberately misrepresented.

I probably shouldn't throw this one in, but its cute and reasonable and fits with several other theories which I'm not convinced of but are plausible...
Just for an example, among many other scenarios which are reasonably possible, is the possibility that the Grey Girl Mel saw in her flames was Lyanna, fleeing from Aerys' men - and Rhaegar rescued her from them and it was called kidnapping by them or others. The description of the scene Mel gives actually works much better for Lyanna near Harrenhal than it does for the obvious answer, Alys Karstark.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

There are only a few hundred people in the entire world who know what they look like up close, and yet someone from far away just happened to see this rendezvous and was able to identify them as Rhaegar and Lyanna . . .

People in this world (and social status) using clothing and symbols and colouring as identifiers. Never mind that Rhaegar Targaryen with his silver hair is readily identifiable even from a distance.

Almost anyone who saw a silver haired man in black and red with dragon insignia with a young girl in grey with wolf insignia would know who they were, or know enough that others would identify them through the descriptions.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Sorry, none of this is even plausible let alone likely.

plausible - I do not think it means what you think it means, at least by the way you use it.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Someone spread this false tale, deliberately.

That too is one of the options I gave.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He could take her to Dragonstone and no one would ever know she was there. And no one would have any reason to suspect Rhaegar in her disappearance, unless, of course, they went out of their way to make sure he could be connected to it.

Maybe, but also maybe not. Quite probably not, given he didn't do that.

Its a bit pointless postulating some random possibility, that is possible, but not even likely let alone certain, that should lead to an action not taken.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

If Rhaegar is so worried about what the Starks would do or what Aerys would do, then why is he not taking even the most basic steps to keep it a secret that he has Lyanna at all?

Multiple options here. I'll list just a few of them, there are plenty more for sure.
Maybe he isn't worried by everything they could do. Just eliminating certain aggressive options. Maybe he wants Rickard and Aerys talking, and in agreement over something.
Maybe that option wasn't available due to the circumstances surrounding their meeting?
Maybe they tried that option and failed. Shit happens, happened to Catelyn for example.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The fact is, we don't know that Rhaegar did anything. There is nothing in the text, absolutely nothing, that confirms Rhaegar was with Lyanna at any time after Harrenhal.

So?
There is nothing in the text that indicates, let alone 'confirms', Aerys was in any place that Lyanna was ever at, even at disparate times, any time after Harrenhal.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So Lyanna runs off with Rhaegar willingly and then remains completely ignorant about everything that followed?

Yes, thats entirely possible for a long time, long after the relatively fast paced events that followed. 

No Twits in this world. No radio, no TV news, no internet, no Instagram etc etc. You go off the grid (not that there's even much of a grid!) for a month or two and anything at all can happen to anyone and you have no idea. And then even if/when you do find out, you may be weeks or months away from being able to intervene in any way, and the news you have itself may be months or more out of date making any attempt to intervene pointless.

This is a pretty fundamental point. It astonishing that some people don't seem to be able to factor it in to their understanding of possibilities.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Hightower certainly had no problem finding them.

Didn't he? 
He succeeded. We have no idea how long it took him and how difficult it was. Maybe months.
And thats a determined effort by the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard on a mission from the King, not random people or news fnding its way to people trying to hide.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

And even if she could not have predicted the fallout, it still occurred because of her selfishness. She defied her father's wishes that she marry Robert and ran off to have an illegitimate child with the prince. Everything else that happened was caused by her decision to do this. So sorry, but no, there is no reason why Ned would or should simply brush this off to make such a life-altering promise.

Blah blah blah you have zero idea about what and why things happened.
Guess what, Ned DOESN'T think they way you do. Which is a massive indication that your narrative is WRONG. Its that simple.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

The romantic love story surrounding RLJ is the narrative that doesn't fit. Not one single person in this entire drama is doing what they should be doing if this is what happened.

Not according to your narrative, no.
But you'll forgive me if, given all these characters not doing what they 'should' be, by your narrative, I'll not think very much of your narrative and work with a different narrative.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Making up excuses for the highly implausible over and over again is not finding a narrative that fits the facts. It's turning a blind eye to what really happened.

Riiight. So its you who knows what happened exactly (and who knows what), and all the characters who aren't doing what they "should" (according to you) have it all completely wrong.

There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Aerys is highly suspicious that Rhaegar is trying to steal his crown, has been since before Duskendale. He went all the way to Harrenhal to put a stop to it. Now here is the perfect opportunity to get rid of him, but Aerys actually covers for him. Yet another person in the long list of persons doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing.

Only because the narrative is false. 
Aerys doesn't want to 'get rid of' Rhaegar. Rhaegar is his most ultimately dependable ally, He just doesn't get along with him all the time. Yes, sometimes he's suspicious and paranoid of Rhaegar. He's suspicious and paranoid of everyone. But he knows, underneath that, that ultimately Rhaegar is on his side compared to anyone else.
As evidenced by him putting Rhaegar in charge of all his forces, even the KG deployments.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Aerys doted on Viserys. He had the KG watch over him 24/7. Even Rhaella could not be alone with him. He had the milk from his wet nurse tasted. He burnt all the gifts sent by all the lords of Westeros. And Vis was immediately named heir right after the Trident, even though Aegon was still alive. Does that sound like bullshit to you?

The "doting" part is. You just made that up to misrepresent the rest.
This was all out of fear and obsession, not extreme love.

Quote

The birth of Prince Viserys only seemed to make Aerys II more fearful and obsessive, however. Though the new young princeling seemed healthy enough, the king was terrified lest he suffer the same fate as his brothers. Kingsguard knights were commanded to stand over him night and day to see that no one touched the boy without the king's leave. Even the queen herself was forbidden to be alone with the infant. When her milk dried up, Aerys insisted on having his own food taster suckle at the teats of the prince's wet nurse, to ascertain that the woman had not smeared poison on her nipples. As gifts for the young prince arrived from all the lords of the Seven Kingdoms, the king had them piled in the yard and burned, for fear that some of them might have been ensorcelled or cursed.

 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Have you read the book? What battles had Rhaegar fought before the Trident? What armies had he led?

What battles or armies had anyone in Westeros led at the start of the Rebellion? Outside a few older men a long time ago, none. Certainly none by Robert, Ned, Jon Con or others. 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

He wasn't even at Duskendale.

Neither a battle nor a great army, and no great "experience" for anyone. An entirely 'do nothing' event other than Barristan Selmy's one man action.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Rhaegar has zero military experience, has never even swung a sword in anger, unlike Dayne, Hightower, Lewyn and probably a half dozen other available lords.

You don't know that. You just assume that from a lack of direct information.
Even if it were true, he has trained as a knight and a leader since he was a child, under the finest tutelage available. And excelled. He is born to this job, and has trained for it virtually all his life - much more so than Ned for example.
JonCon was his squire, and that was qualification enough to command the royal army.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

There is absolutely no reason why Aerys would want to give his son an army if he knew that Rhaegar was capable of such madness and was desirous of the throne.

Indeed. The point is, thats simply not the case. Your narrative fails the facts. So fix your narrative.
Because the FACT s that Aerys DID give Rhaegar the army. Period.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Ned was the newly-made Lord of Winterfell; command fell to him by default, as it did with Robert.

And yet that same default doesn't apply to Rhaegar who is older, more experienced, better trained, better qualified than both of them.
Ah well.... 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, the KG turning their cloaks on Aerys in favor of Rhaegar is a bullshit narrative. That was my point,

I didn't see anyone else putting it forward here, just you. Did I miss something or was that a straw man?

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

and yet large numbers of readers accept this anyway.

People are stupid, thats on them. You aren't discussing things with those people so their thoughts aren't relevant.. 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So if that's not what happened, then why were they there?

There are multiple options available. Do you actually want some of them explained again? 
Problem is, there doesn't seem to be any point. You just rant every time about how either the facts on the ground or other people's explanations of them don't fit with your failed narrative.
Is explaining even one 'working' narrative worth my time, honestly? It feel like an enormous task, because I can needing to develop almost every side issue due to how interpretations are chosen, or not chosen by either of us. I can metaphorically see you in many places claiming "thats doesn't fit/make sense" purely because of how you have chosen various interpretations. Like the whole Rhaegar and Aerys being enemies thing, for example. They weren't, IMO, just allies, or brothers (or father and son!) occasionally at loggerheads. but definitely both on the same side vs anyone else!

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

How could stealing Lyanna not have been mad? What outcome should D, H and W have expected? It goes against everything noble, honorable and chivalrous that they supposedly stand for. In your "narrative that fits the facts" are all three of these nights just faking it? They're actually depraved scumbags like Whent and Blount?

Nope. 
Its pretty straight forward. But it fits the facts and characterisations we have. It probably doesn't fit the assumptions you have, so you'll ignore it (or more likely shout it down) anyway. At least, thats my past experience.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

So yes I agree, we need to find a narrative that fits the facts. Rhaegar kidnapping Lyanna does not fit the facts.

We agree there. Thats something at least! 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Lyanna running away with Rhaegar does not fit the facts.

Sure it does. You just have to throw away preconceptions that don't fit. They almost always aren't facts, just interpretations of facts.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Aerys suddenly welcoming Rhaegar back into his trust does not fit the facts.

Sure it does. 
There is no "fact" that says Aerys and Rhaegar were enemies. Only a few things that can be interpretated that way, but also can be interpreted as relatively minor differences. The image of two brothers fighting each other but instantly ready to defend each other against the whole world is a common one, just in this case its father and son. 

The whole 'distrust and paranoia' thing is vastly overblown IMO. Yes, there was some there at some times, because Aerys was mad and paranoiac and frequently listened to bad people, lickspittles and schemers etc. But only some times and never that deeply. Ultimately Rhaegar was always Aerys' greatest shield. His heir until he died, given command of all royal forces, including Aerys' KG. And would have been given command earlier too, if he cold be found.

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Three KG turning traitor to their king does not fit the facts.

Agreed. 

40 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You know what does fit the facts? Rhaegar having nothing to do with this and it was Aerys who kidnapped them both and then grew increasingly desperate as the situation grew out of control.

Except there are no "facts" that fit that narrative. Only a tiny number of rather poor interpretations that don't fit with other facts. And plenty of things that contradict it.

What does fit the facts are Aerys knowing nothing about ToJ or the KG (or Lyanna) there, but those KG still being loyal to him. And Rhaegar too. They were all on the same team. But Rhaegar was giving directions, not all of which Aerys knew the details of (not necessarily to harm Aerys, but to keep him from harming himself, or others).
Remember how Jaime wanted to go to the Trident instead of Darry? It was Rhaegar he pleaded with, Rhaegar who made the decision. Not Aerys. Even in the Red Keep. Rhaegar had been put in charge,even over the KG and who guarded Aerys.
And he made his decisions with Aerys in mind, not antagonistically toward his father. He left Jaime there as a crutch for his father that no other KG would have been.  

[Nevets]

15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

So in your scenario, she was, in fact, kidnapped? If she was eloping, why would she bring a tail of guards with her, and why would these guards object to her riding off willingly with the prince? Guards are there for protection, not to order her about.

Why would Rhaegar fall upon Lyanna in broad daylight, in front of a crowd of people, slay all her guards, and make off with her? Does he not care that this would send alarms throughout the kingdom and set every house in the realm to be on watch for them? Wouldn't he take even the slightest precautions to disguise himself? Only another noble would recognize Rhaegar. Commoners would only know him by his armor and his feathers. And again, this means the kidnapping happened in broad daylight in front of numerous people. Why is Rhaegar going out of his way to make sure the realm knows right away that he has done this terrible thing?

She has a tail because she has no choice in the matter.  She is a 15-year-old girl who is a guest of the Whents.  If they want her to have an escort, and I suspect they would, if only to keep troublemakers away and her out of mischief, she isn't in a position to really object.  I have not suggested that anyone dies.  Any guards are not going to be able to deal with the Crown Prince, and will stand down.  Lyanna will go with Rhaegar, who will be recognized by anyone in the group, thanks to the tournament.  It is possible that the kidnapping was staged.

At this point, only those with Lyanna would know.  The circle of knowledge would extend to the Whents, Starks, Robert, and a few others.  I doubt it was intended to get widely known.

15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

He's going to make it up to the Starks later? How? He's just taken their only daughter and defiled her just because of some prophecy he read in a book. How on earth is he going to make this up?

He's the Crown Prince.  He'll think of something,  especially if it isn't too widely known.  Good marriages for everyone, including Lyanna, places at Court, promises of silence, that sort of thing.  I expect the two families could work something out in the end.  Or at least he thinks so.

I'm not a fan of the elopement theory,, and prophecy is the only thing that makes any sense.  But we have been no reason in the text to doubt that Rhaegar did in fact take off with Lyanna.  How he did it, and why they went off together is in doubt, and may not be satisfactorily resolved.  That Rhaegar was involved is not doubted in world,  Nobody other than Rhaegar and his companions has been mentioned at all in connection with Lyanna, so I'm quite sure he was involved. 

Edited March 3, 2021 by Nevets

[John Suburbs]

18 hours ago, corbon said:

Maybe, maybe not. Maybe they did and got found out, recognised, whatever. Like Cat did when she ran into Tyrion at the Inn of the Crossroads. Myabe the didn't, and people knew, but the situation was misunderstood, or deliberately misrepresented.

I probably shouldn't throw this one in, but its cute and reasonable and fits with several other theories which I'm not convinced of but are plausible...
Just for an example, among many other scenarios which are reasonably possible, is the possibility that the Grey Girl Mel saw in her flames was Lyanna, fleeing from Aerys' men - and Rhaegar rescued her from them and it was called kidnapping by them or others. The description of the scene Mel gives actually works much better for Lyanna near Harrenhal than it does for the obvious answer, Alys Karstark.

People in this world (and social status) using clothing and symbols and colouring as identifiers. Never mind that Rhaegar Targaryen with his silver hair is readily identifiable even from a distance.

Almost anyone who saw a silver haired man in black and red with dragon insignia with a young girl in grey with wolf insignia would know who they were, or know enough that others would identify them through the descriptions.

plausible - I do not think it means what you think it means, at least by the way you use it.

That too is one of the options I gave.

Maybe, but also maybe not. Quite probably not, given he didn't do that.

Its a bit pointless postulating some random possibility, that is possible, but not even likely let alone certain, that should lead to an action not taken.

Multiple options here. I'll list just a few of them, there are plenty more for sure.
Maybe he isn't worried by everything they could do. Just eliminating certain aggressive options. Maybe he wants Rickard and Aerys talking, and in agreement over something.
Maybe that option wasn't available due to the circumstances surrounding their meeting?
Maybe they tried that option and failed. Shit happens, happened to Catelyn for example.

So?
There is nothing in the text that indicates, let alone 'confirms', Aerys was in any place that Lyanna was ever at, even at disparate times, any time after Harrenhal.

Yes, thats entirely possible for a long time, long after the relatively fast paced events that followed. 

No Twits in this world. No radio, no TV news, no internet, no Instagram etc etc. You go off the grid (not that there's even much of a grid!) for a month or two and anything at all can happen to anyone and you have no idea. And then even if/when you do find out, you may be weeks or months away from being able to intervene in any way, and the news you have itself may be months or more out of date making any attempt to intervene pointless.

This is a pretty fundamental point. It astonishing that some people don't seem to be able to factor it in to their understanding of possibilities.

Didn't he? 
He succeeded. We have no idea how long it took him and how difficult it was. Maybe months.
And thats a determined effort by the Lord Commander of the Kingsguard on a mission from the King, not random people or news fnding its way to people trying to hide.

Blah blah blah you have zero idea about what and why things happened.
Guess what, Ned DOESN'T think they way you do. Which is a massive indication that your narrative is WRONG. Its that simple.

Not according to your narrative, no.
But you'll forgive me if, given all these characters not doing what they 'should' be, by your narrative, I'll not think very much of your narrative and work with a different narrative.

Riiight. So its you who knows what happened exactly (and who knows what), and all the characters who aren't doing what they "should" (according to you) have it all completely wrong.

There are none so blind as those who refuse to see.

Only because the narrative is false. 
Aerys doesn't want to 'get rid of' Rhaegar. Rhaegar is his most ultimately dependable ally, He just doesn't get along with him all the time. Yes, sometimes he's suspicious and paranoid of Rhaegar. He's suspicious and paranoid of everyone. But he knows, underneath that, that ultimately Rhaegar is on his side compared to anyone else.
As evidenced by him putting Rhaegar in charge of all his forces, even the KG deployments.

The "doting" part is. You just made that up to misrepresent the rest.
This was all out of fear and obsession, not extreme love.

 

What battles or armies had anyone in Westeros led at the start of the Rebellion? Outside a few older men a long time ago, none. Certainly none by Robert, Ned, Jon Con or others. 

Neither a battle nor a great army, and no great "experience" for anyone. An entirely 'do nothing' event other than Barristan Selmy's one man action.

You don't know that. You just assume that from a lack of direct information.
Even if it were true, he has trained as a knight and a leader since he was a child, under the finest tutelage available. And excelled. He is born to this job, and has trained for it virtually all his life - much more so than Ned for example.
JonCon was his squire, and that was qualification enough to command the royal army.

Indeed. The point is, thats simply not the case. Your narrative fails the facts. So fix your narrative.
Because the FACT s that Aerys DID give Rhaegar the army. Period.

And yet that same default doesn't apply to Rhaegar who is older, more experienced, better trained, better qualified than both of them.
Ah well.... 

I didn't see anyone else putting it forward here, just you. Did I miss something or was that a straw man?

People are stupid, thats on them. You aren't discussing things with those people so their thoughts aren't relevant.. 

There are multiple options available. Do you actually want some of them explained again? 
Problem is, there doesn't seem to be any point. You just rant every time about how either the facts on the ground or other people's explanations of them don't fit with your failed narrative.
Is explaining even one 'working' narrative worth my time, honestly? It feel like an enormous task, because I can needing to develop almost every side issue due to how interpretations are chosen, or not chosen by either of us. I can metaphorically see you in many places claiming "thats doesn't fit/make sense" purely because of how you have chosen various interpretations. Like the whole Rhaegar and Aerys being enemies thing, for example. They weren't, IMO, just allies, or brothers (or father and son!) occasionally at loggerheads. but definitely both on the same side vs anyone else!

Nope. 
Its pretty straight forward. But it fits the facts and characterisations we have. It probably doesn't fit the assumptions you have, so you'll ignore it (or more likely shout it down) anyway. At least, thats my past experience.

We agree there. Thats something at least! 

Sure it does. You just have to throw away preconceptions that don't fit. They almost always aren't facts, just interpretations of facts.

Sure it does. 
There is no "fact" that says Aerys and Rhaegar were enemies. Only a few things that can be interpretated that way, but also can be interpreted as relatively minor differences. The image of two brothers fighting each other but instantly ready to defend each other against the whole world is a common one, just in this case its father and son. 

The whole 'distrust and paranoia' thing is vastly overblown IMO. Yes, there was some there at some times, because Aerys was mad and paranoiac and frequently listened to bad people, lickspittles and schemers etc. But only some times and never that deeply. Ultimately Rhaegar was always Aerys' greatest shield. His heir until he died, given command of all royal forces, including Aerys' KG. And would have been given command earlier too, if he cold be found.

Agreed. 

Except there are no "facts" that fit that narrative. Only a tiny number of rather poor interpretations that don't fit with other facts. And plenty of things that contradict it.

What does fit the facts are Aerys knowing nothing about ToJ or the KG (or Lyanna) there, but those KG still being loyal to him. And Rhaegar too. They were all on the same team. But Rhaegar was giving directions, not all of which Aerys knew the details of (not necessarily to harm Aerys, but to keep him from harming himself, or others).
Remember how Jaime wanted to go to the Trident instead of Darry? It was Rhaegar he pleaded with, Rhaegar who made the decision. Not Aerys. Even in the Red Keep. Rhaegar had been put in charge,even over the KG and who guarded Aerys.
And he made his decisions with Aerys in mind, not antagonistically toward his father. He left Jaime there as a crutch for his father that no other KG would have been.  

Maybe they didn't bother to elope at night? Maybe they didn't bother to meet up where no one else is around? Maybe they didn't take even the most basic steps to hide their identities? Again, I ask, why not? Why are they so bound and determined to be found out as quickly as humanly possible? Do they want to get away or don't they? Do they intend to make a baby or not? Do they intend to rescue Lyanna from the brutish Robert or don't they? Why wouldn't they do everything humanly possible to steal away together and have no one know what they are up to?

Catelyn was in cognito at the inn, very effectively. Only someone who knew her by sight who saw her up close revealed her, and then she had no choice. So how would this same thing happen with R&L? Is Lyanna hiding her identity and Rhaegar spots her? Is Rhaegar hiding and Lyanna outs him? And wouldn't this fly in the face of your contention that this was an elopement and not a kidnapping? Why would they meet in an inn, announce their identities to a bunch of strangers, and then stage it like a kidnapping? Why are they being so nonchalant about something that they both know will rock their two houses at the very least?

Nobody would see Rhaegar's silver hair at night. Nobody would see it if he took the simple step of wearing a hooded cloak. It is the dead of winter after all. Why are they both so bound and determined to be caught as quickly as possible? Why is he wearing his distinctive armor and his feathers? The central question you keep evading: why are they doing absolutely nothing to keep people from discovering their elopement?

OK, so who is spreading the false tale of the kidnapping in your scenario? Who is throwing Rhaegar under the bus like this if not Aerys? And if the kidnapping part is false, why is it so all-fire impossible for the entire story to be false?

No, he didn't take her to Dragonstone, which is the most logical place to bring her considering it is his seat and he could get her there in a couple of days with no one the wiser. Instead, he carts her overland all the way to the ToJ, a good couple of weeks or more. And no one spots them on this long journey. No one thinks to rescue the kidnapped maiden and bring the prince to justice. No one has any clue that this is where they've gone. Even Brienne could not get Jaime back to KL from Riverrun, and that was through a land desolated by war.

It is not pointless to ask why not. That is where the truth lies. It is how we could have puzzled out the truth of the Arryn murder: by asking why didn't Cersei do a number of key things if she was truly worried about the Hand and the book. And it's how you can still get to the truth about the Purple Wedding and other things.

Rhaegar is no fool. He knows exactly what the fallout is when you make off with a highborn daughter, particularly one who is betrothed. It's not just the Starks he has to worry about but the Baratheons too. And if the tales of Harrenhal are true, these are they very same lords who were plotting to put him on the throne just weeks before. So any way you looik at it, this is a completely mad act by a man who has shown no signs of madness before and received the admiration of some of the most honorable, noble people in the realm, both before and after his death. Certainly not the result for someone who would commit such a horrible crime.

Aerys would not have to be with Lyanna or Rhaegar in order to kidnap them both. But supposedly Rhaegar himself snatched Lyanna off the road, a story we only get from one unnamed stranger. And the speed that this story got out strongly suggest that neither of them did the slightest thing to hide their actions, which is completely incongruous given the implications of what they were supposedly up to. The story does not fit the facts. When that happens, you don't just ignore the facts that dispute your theory, nor do you just make up imaginary facts out of the clear blue sky. You try to find a plausible scenario that fits with what is actually known. Maybe it will pan out, maybe it won't. But you don't just dismiss it because it leads to a conclusion that's different from what you imagined.

Again, it doesn't matter what Lyanna knew or did not know afterward. She acted selfishly and it resulted in the deaths of her father and brother, not to mention countless others across the realm. She defied her father, shamed her house and ran off with a married man because it suited her own self-interest. She has no right to expect any favors from Ned, nor does Ned have any reason to grant them, particularly one that falsely brings additional shame to him, his wife and the son that Lyanna wants him to raise -- and in fact places this son in greater jeopardy of being found out. Yet another in a long list of examples where people are doing exactly the opposite of what they should be doing if this elopement story is true.

There is no indication that Hightower had any trouble finding them. And then he simply tells Rhaegar to get his tail back to KL, or places him in custody of some junior office who has no standing to arrest the crown prince, and decides to stay at the ToJ because guarding Rhaegar's girlfriend is more important than protecting the king? IT's just one disconnect after another.

The characters are not doing what they should be doing under your narrative, not mine. In mine, Aerys is the cause of all this. He had them both taken. He impregnated Lyanna. He then forced Rhaegar to fight for him or lose his family to hideous painful deaths -- something that would not happen if Rhaegar had foresaken them for the new love of his life. The KG are at the ToJ on Aerys' orders, not Rhaegars, doing what they should be doing as honorable knights who have sworn holy vows to obey their king. Ned makes the promise to Lyanna because he knows she is not really the cause of all this -- although he can still chide her for her wolf blood because it would not have happened without the Laughing Tree stunt. The only people who think any of this is true are ones like Robert and Selmy and Jaime (and I even wonder about Jaime), because they are not privy to the truth. There are no disconnects in this narrative, which doesn't make it true but at least it's plausible. It's not the characters who have it wrong, it's you.

Did you read the World Book? Yes, Aerys thinks everyone is plotting against him, including Rhaegar, to put Rhaegar on the throne. He's felt this way for years, since Duskendale at least, and he feels so strongly by the tourny at Harrenhal that he leaves the RK, something he hasn't done in years, to put a stop to it. So yes, Rhaegar suddenly going mad and not only shaming himself before the entire realm but also severing the ties with the very lords he was conspiring against is a golden opportunity to get rid of him -- disinherit him and his family entirely and name his precious Viserys as the new crown prince. Instead, he covers for the suspect prince and then gives him an army to accomplish exactly what Aerys fears most. Sorry, but this is the single biggest disconnect in the entire episode. But, as you say, none so blind as those who refuse to see . . .

Hightower commanded the royal forces during the Ninepenny Kings. Selmy slew Malys the Monstrous. Houses too many to name from the Crownlands and Dorne (but not the Reach apparently, odd) sent knights and lords into battle. Presumably, this included the Daynes, although Ser Arthur is not mentioned. He did, however, rid the Kingswood of the  brotherhood, slaying the Smiling Knight while Selmy slew the leader, Simon Toyne. Hightower, meanwhile, took a would saving Elia from an attack. And, of course, Selmy also single-handedly rescued Aerys from Duskendale. All of these brave men were proving themselves and risking their lives fighting off foes while Rhaegar sat around day-dreaming and playing his lute. We don't know how old he was when he decided he "must" be a warrior, but Selmy at least said he took to it with skill but no enthusiasm. It was a chore to him, not a passion.

How does having a squire qualify you to lead an army? By that logic, any two-bit hedge knight should be put in command.

My narrative does fit the facts. If gives Aerys a plausible reason to suddenly trust Rhaegar with an army. Yours is the narrative that does not fit. You should fix yours.

No that default does not apply to Rhaegar because Aerys had plenty of other choices to lead his army. Experienced men who have fought in battles and have led the royal army. Ned is the new Lord of Winterfell. He marched his host into the riverlands but he did not assume command of the entire rebel army. It was most likely Tully and Arryn calling the shots because they had the most experience.

Scroll up. The KG betraying Aerys for Rhaegar and then Jon is a pretty well-worn theory when trying to square all the circles that exist within the kidnap/elope narrative. But it doesn't fit, just like none of the other lame excuses that are offered at all the other key disconnects.

Again, you keep talking about how the facts fail my narrative. They don't. They fail yours. No one is doing as they should under your circumstances. Everyone involved is so utterly stupid that they do the exact opposite of what they should be doing -- Rhaegar, Lyanna, Ned, Aerys, the KG, nobody seems to have an ounce of sense here. But with Aerys as the instigator of all this, it all starts to balance out. L&R didn't alert the whole world of what they were doing. It was never done. The kidnap story spread so fast because Aerys made sure it did. Aerys didn't blow the perfect chance to rid himself of his son; he had to cover so that Rhaegar wouldn't spill the story of what really happened. The KG are obeying Aerys orders because that is what they are honor-bound to do. Aerys has a motive to devote his best protection to Jon because he needs him to birth a dragon. Ned understands that Lyanna did not precipitate all of this except in the most indirect way. So sorry, but since your narrative is the one that doesn't fit, except under the most unlikely, torturously stretched series of rationales, then you're the one who needs to reconsider. 

But anyway, it was nice chatting with you. I'm out.

 

 

 

 

 

[John Suburbs]

6 hours ago, Nevets said:

She has a tail because she has no choice in the matter.  She is a 15-year-old girl who is a guest of the Whents.  If they want her to have an escort, and I suspect they would, if only to keep troublemakers away and her out of mischief, she isn't in a position to really object.  I have not suggested that anyone dies.  Any guards are not going to be able to deal with the Crown Prince, and will stand down.  Lyanna will go with Rhaegar, who will be recognized by anyone in the group, thanks to the tournament.  It is possible that the kidnapping was staged.

At this point, only those with Lyanna would know.  The circle of knowledge would extend to the Whents, Starks, Robert, and a few others.  I doubt it was intended to get widely known.

He's the Crown Prince.  He'll think of something,  especially if it isn't too widely known.  Good marriages for everyone, including Lyanna, places at Court, promises of silence, that sort of thing.  I expect the two families could work something out in the end.  Or at least he thinks so.

I'm not a fan of the elopement theory,, and prophecy is the only thing that makes any sense.  But we have been no reason in the text to doubt that Rhaegar did in fact take off with Lyanna.  How he did it, and why they went off together is in doubt, and may not be satisfactorily resolved.  That Rhaegar was involved is not doubted in world,  Nobody other than Rhaegar and his companions has been mentioned at all in connection with Lyanna, so I'm quite sure he was involved. 

She is going to elope with a married prince and she has no way of eluding her guard? Even 9yo Arya had no trouble doing that. Or she is being attacked, in broad daylight in front of witnesses, by a group of armed men and her guards cut and ran? Guards are commanded to give their lives for their lords and ladies. What good is a guard if he is going to give you up at the first sign of trouble? And then it was these cowardly guards who then immediately reported this as a kidnapping? They should have made straight for Saltpans and hopped the next cog to Essos, lest Brandon learn what they did.

Why would R and/or L want anyone to know that they are off to make a mythical hero baby? And the Starks know? But not Brandon? Why is he out of the loop? And even Robert knows? Why is he so furious, now 15 years later, about the thousands of times Rhaegar raped Lyanna? Did he forget?

So basically Rhaegar's reasoning is this: I'll snatch the betrothed maid, have a baby with her, even "wed" her if I want, and then I'll just wing it from there? Come on. Give the man some credit. They already had a good marriage for Lyanna, to the Lord of Storm's End. Now she's been tarnished in front of the entire realm; she'll be lucky to get a third son of some minor branch house. I don't think you realize what a huge insult this is to both Starks and Baratheons. Lyanna wasn't just a bride, she was the union of two great houses. Her value was political, not personal. And he is doing this to two houses who were conspiring to put Rhaegar on the throne just weeks before. All of this is so completely out of character for both Rhaegar and Lyanna, not to mention Aerys subsequently and the KG, Ned and others after that, that it is hard to see how people are able to rationalize this just to produce they explanation they desire.

Sorry, but the text provides all kinds of reasons to doubt Rhaegar's involvement. Not just the false kidnap story but the actions of virtually everyone in the weeks and months that followed. Literally everyone would have to be the opposite of what they seemed to be in order to make this work. Rhaegar is the mad one. Aerys is relatively sane and caring toward his heir. Lyanna cares not a whit what happens to her family or anyone else as long as she gets her prince. The KG, three of them at once, forsake their vows to support Rhaegar. Ned makes a life-altering promise to the sister who betrayed him and their house, subjecting his wife to a lifetime of shame and actually increasing the risk that Jon will be found out . . .

For three full novels, nobody other than Cersei and Jaime were mentioned in connection with the death of Jon Arryn, right up to the point where Pycelle is telling us "she wanted him dead" because "he knew about . . . about . . ." And yet the truth could have been deduced by asking why Cersei did not destroy the book or act against Ned sooner, why she admits the truth to Ned without batting an eye, why she didn't admit it to Tyrion right after she confessed to killing Robert, or any number of other contrary decisions she made if she was truly worried about these Hands and their "evidence." In the end, the fact is that she wasn't, and had no reason to be. I think we will see the same thing here. And Martin has said that we will get the full story of what happened by the end of the series.

But that's enough for me on this subject. Thanks for the chat.

[Johny]

I hope that winds of winter will finally be published just to put an end to this theory. Jon is no prince riding a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion and will never be that prince.

[lehutin]

On 4/3/2021 at 1:06 PM, Johny said:

I hope that winds of winter will finally be published just to put an end to this theory. Jon is no prince riding a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion and will never be that prince.

Your mistake is thinking that R+L=J requires or implies that Jon be a "prince riding a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion." It does not, figuratively or literally.

[Nami]

On 4/6/2021 at 10:24 AM, lehutin said:

Your mistake is thinking that R+L=J requires or implies that Jon be a "prince riding a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion." It does not, figuratively or literally.

at least I hope it won't be just a plot device to turn Dany mad...*coughseason8cough*

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

On 4/3/2021 at 6:06 PM, Johny said:

I hope that winds of winter will finally be published just to put an end to this theory. Jon is no prince riding a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion and will never be that prince.

I haven't seen anyone to claim that Jon rides a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion. He is the King though for the Targaryen line of succession, even if the Targaryern kingdom doesn't exist.

[Daeron the Daring]

3 hours ago, Lilac & Gooseberries said:

I haven't seen anyone to claim that Jon rides a half unicorn, half ice dragon lion. He is the King though for the Targaryen line of succession, even if the Targaryern kingdom doesn't exist.

It was me. And yes, he certainly will. Haha. 

[alienarea]

And maybe GRRM kills off Jon Snow for good in the beginning of TWoW (i.e. Jon dies at the end of ADwD and cannot be revived) and we'll never know and debate for ever.

[Bog fairy]

If Jon really is the son of Rhaegar and Lyanna, and if he truly is the "prince that was promised" as many out there say, then why was he stabbed to death at the end of the last book? I'm not referring to the TV series. If he doesn't come back from the dead, it would seem all a waste of time. If he wasn't dead, just wounded and unconscious then that could be better than making him a wight. If he's alive or undead as a zombie in the future books, will he ever meet Lady Stoneheart?

Edited November 9, 2021 by Bog fairy
typo

[Willam Stark]

I don't think he's dead

 

[StarksInTheNorth]

I'm starting to think Lyanna did not die in childbirth.

Assuming R+L=J, Ned Stark rides up at just the right time in two major events of the rebellion: the Sack of King's Landing and the birth of Jon/death of Lyanna. This is incredibly coincidental and my suspension of disbelief is limited.

Someone recently created a thread about who the "they" who found Ned holding Lyanna's body was. My speculation there was that maybe Ned waited to fight the Kingsguard because they let him in to see his sister, but that after her death they fought over Jon.

My latest, mostly baseless speculation, is that Lyanna was stabbed (either on purpose or on accident) during the conflict at the Tower of Joy. Perhaps she gives birth okay, Ned appears and wants to take her and her child home, but the Kingsguard will only let him take Lyanna. She refuses to leave Jon, tries to take him, and the Kingsguard fight back. This leads to the conflict, and then she's stabbed and dies.

I like this idea for a few reasons: first, it gives Lyanna agency. She lacks a lot of agency throughout the story, from her betrothal to Robert to the events surrounding her disappearance. Second, I think it might tie with Lyanna's character that she would try to take her son. She would carry a sword if Rickard let her, so picking up a knife to bring her baby with her seems in character with the wolfsblood. Third, it goes with the message GRRM seems to be saying about Aerys' Kingsguard, that they weren't all they were cracked up to be. There's a theme of true knights through ASOIAF, especially around Sansa, Brienne, Jaime, etc. And these supposed paragons of knighthood choosing not to let a young woman keep her baby goes in line with that exploration of true knighthood. Finally, I just think it makes more sense based o the symptoms we know about her.

An argument against this is that Ned mentions "the fever had taken her strength." According to wikipedia, modern diagnosis of puerperal fever is based on a spike in fever for ab out 24 hours in the ten days after birth. Based on that alone, Jon was likely born by the time Ned showed up. If the baby is over a day old, it doesn't make sense that she would still be covered in blood from the incident. And we know there was a lot of blood: "Lyanna in her bed of blood" (AGOT Ned X) and in Theon's prophetic dream she's in "a white gown spattered with gore."  Postpartum hemorrhage usually happens within a day of giving birth and can happen up to 12 weeks after. It is possible that she had the fever and the blood, but the use of "gore" really stands out to me. Theon's vision/dream is more horrific than other descriptions, but a stab wound would notably be gory.

I could be reading too much into these notices, but since there's so few details, who knows what's true.