Jump to content

Varys and Aegon(possible spoilers)


Recommended Posts

22 hours ago, LadyBlackwater said:

Activating preparation!

The timeline of the birth of Jon Snow: (The full timeline is at the end if you don’t want to read)

R+L=YG (fA)
N+A=J

Jon Snow is a true born son of Ned Stark but he is the ONLY true born child of Ned Stark!!!

Your probably wondering how the fuck is Jon Ned's true born child and ONLY TRUE BORN child. In order to tackle this we must take a hard look at Ned's past and primarily the events of the Tourney at Harrenhal/The Tower of Joy/Roberts Rebellion. 

The Tourney at Harrenhal took place in 281 AC. It is here where the seeds of Roberts Rebellion were planted. The obvious act which most people identify the Tourney at Harrenhal (Which was a coup to Replace Aerys with Rhaegar) with is when Prince Rhaeger crowned Lyanna Stark Queen of Love and Beauty and not his wife Elia.Though this may appear to be the most prominent moment in the entire tourney it is not. 

 

In A Storm of Swords Meera Reed tells Bran about the Knight of the Laughing Tree; Bran interrupts her story claiming its not true nor has he ever heard this story before (he's never hear it before because Ned forbade anyone at Winterfell to speak of Ashara Dayne that includes Old Nan).Meera disregards his comment and continues to tell the story. In the story she uses code names as a means to label each individual (I will not list all the names or go into the full story as I want to stay on track of the events as it relates to Ned) 

Brandon Stark- The Wild Wolf
Ned Stark- The Quiet Wolf (Ghost is described as a quiet wolf in Jons very first chapter):

 

His uncle was sharp-featured and gaunt as a mountain crag, but there was always a hint of laughter in his blue-grey eyes. He dressed in black, as befitted a man of the Night's Watch. Tonight it was rich black velvet, with high leather boots and a wide belt with a silver buckle. A heavy silver chain was looped round his neck. Benjen watched Ghost with amusement as he ate his onion. "A very quiet wolf," he observed.

 

- AGOT JON I

The importance of the story is when Meera tells Bran that the wild wolf (Brandon stark; Neds older brother) approached Ashara Dayne to dance with Ned. Brandon was already betrothed to Catelyn Tully and was trying to help his younger brother. 

 

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolfspoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

 

(Much more about the laughing tree and defeating the 3 knights (all loyal to Tywin…)

"Are you certain you never heard this tale before, Bran?" asked Jojen. "Your lord father never told it to you?"

Bran shook his head

  

-ASOS BAN II 

 

Ned and Ashara dance and hit it off and both fall for each other. Cant really knock Ned he's the 2nd eldest son so everything is promised to Brandon whose betrothed to Catelyn so he may as well get his dick wet with whom he wants plus she's fucking gorgeous. 

 

The Tourney ends 10 days later and everyone goes there separate ways... An unknown time later it turns out that Rhaeger kidnapped Lyanna Stark who is betrothed to Robert Baratheon and shit hits the fan. No one knows exactly where Ned goes after the tourney but it is known that he has to travel north through the mountains of the moon and the Vale as a means to call the banners. Just from that fact its safe to assume Ned went south somewhere with someone... 

 

Ashara did go back to Dragonstone after Harrenhal but she was dismissed a few months later (we hav yet to learn why exactly) Ned could have traveled with her to a certain point then had to split up as she was going with Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia back to Dragonstone. Ned could have been somewhere near Starfall. Eventually Ashara comes back to Starfall (or Ned) They were with each other for at least a year plus (Idk exactly how the westerosi calendar works but its pretty "earth" like) 

 

Now the next piece of history that we must look at is in 282. Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the announced date of his marriage between he and Catelyn will be. Little Finger was 15 years old and being fostered at Riverrun and asks for Catelyn Tully's hand. He has a duel with Brandon Stark as a means to win her hand. Little Finger gets absolutely destroyed and almost dies from his wounds. 

 

Note Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the wedding date is announced and after his duel with Little Finger he returns north to join his fathers wedding party and promises Catelyn he will be back. On their way back to Riverrun news reaches them that Rhaeger has abducted Lyanna and rode straight to Kings Landing instead of going to Riverrun. Most people know what happened at this moment. Brandon enters the Red Keep shouts out for Rhaeger to come out and Die... Instead King Aerys arrests Brandon (for plotting to kill Prince Rhaeger) demands that his father comes to Kings Landing to plead their fealty to house Targaryen and the realm. Once Rickard Stark enters the Red Keep he to is arrested and was burnt alive with wildfyre. Brandon was chained up and strangled to death as a means to save his father. This is extremely important to note because it gives a proper timeline of the events! So just a reminder... 

281- Tourney of Harrenhal (Ned meets Ashara)
282- Abduction of Lyanna Stark and deaths of Rickard and Brandon Stark
282-283- Roberts Rebellion

After the deaths of Rickard and Brandon, Jon Arryn was told by king Aerys to bring the head of Robert Baratheon (lyanna's betrothed) and Ned! Instead he says no and raises the banners. At this point we know that Ned hearing the news of his father/brother/sister is making his way north to call the banners. Here is where it gets very interesting. 

 

A Dance With Dragons, a Davos Chapter he is "imprisoned" in the Wolfs Den (I don't want to spend to much on the wolfs den at the moment but its basically a prison but has the luxury feel of any great castle giving Davos the thought that it isn't a prison at all but a hide out. As he was being hidden from the Freys and the Lannisters at this point. More on that another time. They were hiding Ashara.)

 

During the chapter we get the tale of the fishermans daughter:

 

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. A storm caught them on the way. The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down. They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly. Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn.

-ADWD DAVOS I

After he lands in White Harbor he goes to Winterfell to raise the northern lords. (It is very possible it could have been a different child of his that doesn't have a very long life- unlikely). We are told immediately Jon's age (14 then 15) The first mention of Robb's age is 15 but not till 23 chapters into the book after the mention of Jon turning 15 making him the eldest and lines up ideally with the timeline! Jon couldn't be the baby born in the Tower of Joy as that takes place in 284 (Will get to that later but if your born in 284 and the current year is 300 you would be 16 not 15.) Ashara was with him on his travels north. She stayed in the Wolfs Den like Davos. The Wolf Den was raised by King Jon Stark. 

This is where is gets very tricky... Ned married Ashara at some point after the Tourney at Harrenhal! Most likely in White Harbor as they have Weirwoods and are already hiding Ashara, so rather then bring her to Winterfell, stay in white harbor out of harms way- making it easy for a secret marriage. Ned was lord now he could do what he wanted… 

When Tywin finds out Robb marries Jeyne Westering after bedding her...Tywin tells the reader that he is his "Fathers son" perhaps a clue that Robb followed in the footsteps of his old man. This probably is the hardest event to prove definitively because no one knew where Ned was nor his relationship with Ashara (Ned and Ashara likely married in White Harbor as they have weirwoods there and believe in the old gods (this is a must remember). Robb and Jons’ storyline is meant to parallel young Ned in many ways. Being forced to marry is one of the.

 "It would have been kinder to leave her with a bastard in her belly," said Tyrion bluntly. The Westerlings stood to lose everything here; their lands, their castle, their very lives. A Lannister always pays his debts.

"Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin, "and Robb Stark is his father's son."

-ASOS TYRION III

 In A Storm of Swords Arya is captured by the brotherhood without banners and meets a boy named Edric Dayne (the lord of Starfall his aunt and uncle are Ashara/Arthur aka sword of the morning) his nickname is Ned (for Ned Stark). 

all of a sudden, she felt very sad. "My father was called Ned too," she said.

"I know. I saw him at the Hand's tourney. I wanted to go up and speak with him, but I couldn't think what to say." Ned shivered beneath his cloak, a sodden length of pale purple. "Were you at the tourney? I saw your sister there. Ser Loras Tyrell gave her a rose."

"My lady?" Ned said at last. "You have a baseborn brother . . . Jon Snow?

“He is my milk brother."

"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?"

"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."

Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"

"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

"Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name." Arya gave Ned a wary look. "You know her? Truly?" Is he making mock of me? "If you lie I'll punch your face."

"Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly. "I swear it on the honor of my House."

"My lady?" Ned looked embarrassed. "I'm Edric Dayne, the . . . the Lord of Starfall."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?"

"Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring."

"Oh." Arya did not know what else to say. "Why did she jump in the sea, though?"

"Her heart was broken."

Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid. She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. "Did someone break it?"

He hesitated. "Perhaps it's not my place . . ."

Gendry ignored that. "At least your father raised his bastard, not like mine. I don't even know my father's name. Some smelly drunk, I'd wager, like the others my mother dragged home from the alehouse. Whenever she got mad at me, she'd say, 'If your father was here, he'd beat you bloody.' That's all I know of him." He spat. "Well, if he was here now, might be I'd beat him bloody. But he's dead, I figure, and your father's dead too, so what does it matter who he lay with?"

It mattered to Arya, though she could not have said why. Ned was trying to apologize for upsetting her, but she did not want to hear it. She pressed her heels into her horse and left them both. Anguy the Archer was riding a few yards ahead. When she caught up with him, she said, "Dornishmen lie, don't they?"

"They're famous for it." The bowman grinned. "Of course, they say the same of us marchers, so there you are. What's the trouble now? Ned's a good lad . . ."

"He's just a stupid liar." Arya left the trail, leapt a rotten log and splashed across a streambed, ignoring the shouts of the outlaws behind her. They just want to tell me more lies. She thought about trying to get away from them, but there were too many and they knew these lands too well. What was the use of running if they caught you?

It was Harwin who rode up beside her, in the end. "Where do you think you're going, milady? You shouldn't run off. There are wolves in these woods, and worse things."

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly. "Ned says she jumped from a tower into the sea."

"So she did," Harwin admitted, as he led her back, "but that was for grief, I'd wager. She'd lost a brother, the Sword of the Morning." He shook his head. "Let it lie, my lady. They're dead, all of them. Let it lie . . . and please, when we come to Riverrun, say naught of this to your mother."

-ASOS Arya VIII

Think about this for a second Ned must have been truly loved by the members of House Dayne. Even after he "killed" (which I don't believe he did but thats for another day) Arthur Dayne the sword of the morning and is the cause of Ashara's "suicide" (which didn't happen either) that they willingly call the new lord of Starfall after him! And tell him this story? Notice how it ends, with Harwin telling her not to mention any of this Cat. If this story is false why even bother telling your future lord this story? What benefit does it bring? None. Wylla means wife… 

Now Arya being Arya doesn't believe him and freaks out because what does she really know she's only a child and Ned forbade anyone of speaking about Ashara (Also the only children of Ned who is described as looking like a Stark/Ned is Jon and Arya the rest of the children have the Tully look). At this point Ned reaches Winterfell leaving Ashara at White Harbor. 

In steps Lord Hoster Tully and the worst woman in the entire series Catelyn Tully. As a means to join the fight Hoster Demands Ned to marry Catelyn in his brothers place and Jon to Marry Lysa. In the midst of a rebellion Ned and Co don't exactly have time on their side and he is forced into his marriage with Cat. When these negotiations were taking place it is important to note that this is when the rift between The Blackfish and his older brother and liege lord came to an end… It is noted that after these negotiations Blackfish took his own sigil and left house Tully to give his service to House Arryn and became the knight of the gate in the Vale. Hoster had Southron Ambitions and wanted to improve his house' rank through marriage and politics. Blackfish clearly didn't want to force Ned's hand but there was nothing he can do. Hoster tried to force Blackfish to marry Bethany Redwyne years ago… 

Even on his deathbed, Catelyn thought sadly. "He has not wed. You know that, Father. Nor will he ever."

"I told him … commanded him. Marry! I was his lord. He knows. My right, to make his match. A good match. A Redwyne. Old House. Sweet girl, pretty … freckles … Bethany, yes. Poor child. Still waiting. Yes. Still …"

"Bethany Redwyne wed Lord Rowan years ago," Catelyn reminded him. "She has three children by him."

-AGOT Cat XI

Ned marries Cat in the sept at Riverrun in the EYES OF THE SEVEN. This is very important because northerners don't accept the 7 as their gods. They only accept the old gods and marriages in the North must be done in front of a Weirwood... Ned even makes a comment how he has shamed all of his family. 

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

-AGOT Ned II

Why did he shame his family (especially since he doesn't really have any at this point except for Ashara/Benjen/Lyanna/Cat) He married in front of the 7 which isn't accepted in the North and he technically has 2 wives so that could bring on some shame. 

After this Prince Rhaeger emerges out of no where and loses the Battle of the Trident and Tywin sacks Kings Landing. This ultimately concluded the rebellion at the end of 283. However their is still the siege at Storms End. Robert orders Ned to break the siege and successfully does so. At this point Ned is searching for Lyanna and happens to go precisely to the Tower of Joy. (Lyanna and Rhaeger most likely hid out in the crypts of Winterfell or in Winterfell somewhere but thats for another day).

 
281- Tourney at Harrenhal
282- Abduction of Lyanna and deaths of Rickard and Brandon
282-283- Roberts Rebellion
283- Robb Stark born at Riverrun
284- Tower of Joy

Somewhere in these years Ned married Ashara (in White Harbor) and possibly had Jon in late 283 or even very early 284 (most likely in mid-late 283 Jon was born)

After the siege at Storms End Ned travels towards Dorne and come upon the Tower of Joy. Someone must have told Ned to travel near here (my bet is Varys or Pycelle but no one really knows. Most likely Varys though You just can't let the fact that out of the entire realm Ned by chance stumbles upon the location of his sister. Something doesn't add up...) 

 

Ned and company arrive at the Tower of Joy and see's 3 members of the Kingsguard Ser Oswell Whent Ser Athur Dayne and the Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower. First off as readers we have to note that 3 of the best fighters in the entire world are just casually outside of this random tower and not hiding or inside. The 3 of them could have easily defeated Ned and his entire company if they were positioned properly. I don't know why they would just be hanging around outside especially if they're protecting the Princes' pregnant mistress/girlfriend. 

 

Anyway Ned and Co get into a dispute with the Kingsguard and everyone is killed except Howland Reed and ned (I also believe that the Kingsguard members didn't die and are alive and well.) Ned Runs up the stairs to his dying sister and there he see's her in her pool of blood and a new born baby AND a wet nurse! There was another person with Lyanna, this is most likely Wylla. Ned brought her with him to Starfall and most likely to Winterfell. Someone had to give the baby the mothers milk, sure as hell wasn’t going to the Ned...

 Edric Dayne says to Arya that Wylla was Jons mother and or wet nurse… Anyway Ned see's his sister and she says to him to promise to watch out for her baby boy. Theres only one major issue…

He is the spitting image of Rhaeger and has full blown Targ Traits. The platinum white blonde hair the purple lilac color eyes. Ned knowing Robert and his current mission to kill every targaryen isn't going to be very thrilled that the women he loves and is betrothed to just gave birth to a replica of Rhaeger.

In a Dance with Dragons Tyrion is shipped off to Pentos via Varys to escape. Tyrion being the witty little drunk that he is discovers a very special someone during his travels through the free cities on his way to Mereen. 

But before we move on any further Rhaegers son Aegon (via Elia) was born in either 281 or 282 making him either 18 or 19 by the start of A Dance With Dragons... When Tywin sacked Kings Landing Varys claimed he switched baby aegon out with another and that he was shipped off the narrow sea to safety as was being groomed his entire life to be the rightful King but more importantly a good King who rules for his people and not for one self... I think its safe to assume baby Aegon was killed by Tywin and Varys knows that... 

Anyway Tyrion is on his way to meet Danny  and he is on a ship called the Shy Maid with a Sell Sword going by the name of Griff and his son Young Griff. A maester going by Haldon Halfmaester, Another sellsword named Duck a Septa named Lemore (who is most likely Ashara Dayne as Tyrion points out she has stretch marks from a previous birth...but never her eye color…) and a rhyonish couple helping them navigate the waters (Just some more IAF history Young Griff and Egg from the Dunk and Egg tales are the only 2 characters that have a floppy brim straw hat and a knight/guard egg has a dunk so why not give aegon a duck.These 2 characteristics can't be thrown out the window both are wearing the same straw hat using a alias and are accompanied on their journey with a sellsword/knight who eventually become the first of their kingsguard....) The first thing Tyrion lets us know is that the boy is about 15/16 (there is a drastic difference between a 15/16 year old and a 18/19 year old) (15/16 fits ideally with the timeline and the Tower of Joy.

Note that the tower of Joy scenes we get from Ned are during his fever dreams (he was drugged up on milk of the poppy (if anybody has a vile of that let me know). and his dreams don't depict the truth of the situation. George has even said It's a fever dream and that doesn't mean its 100% accurate. 

Tyrion who is going by the nickname Hugor Hill or Yollo finally pieces everything out. After having some wine and a few games of Cyvasse it comes to him... Why does a son of a sellsword need 1) a body guard 2) a arms trainer 3) a septa 4) a maester.

Tyrion notices these don't exactly add up along with his looks. We even get from a Jon connington chapter that Aegon is the spitting image of Rhaeger. And says something extremely similar Rhaeagr said to him years ago:

 

Prince Aegon Targaryen was not near as biddable as the boy Young Griff had been, however. The better part of an hour had passed before he finally turned up in the solar, with Duck at his side. "Lord Connington," he said, "I like your castle."

"Your father's lands are beautiful," he said. His silvery hair was blowing in the wind, and his eyes were a deep purple, darker than this boy's. 

Jon Connington stepped out onto the high battlements, the view was just as intoxicating as he remembered: the crag with its wind-carved rocks and jagged spires, the sea below growling and worrying at the foot of the castle like some restless beast, endless leagues of sky and cloud, the wood with its autumnal colors. "Your father's lands are beautiful," Prince Rhaegar had said, standing right where Jon was standing now.

-ADWD The Griffin Reborn

This Young Griff imposter even has dyed his hair blue "in memory" of his Tyroshi mother. The only woman in the world of ice and fire whose associated with the color Blue is Lyanna Stark... Anyway Tyrion being his witty self calls out Young Griff for who he really is and his companions... It turns out that Griff is the exile lord Jon Connington, Young Griff is Aegon (please note that Aegon thinks he's the rightful heir and son of Rhaeger Targaryen and Elia Martell and not Lyanna Stark (He would be 3/4 years older if he was the "real" aegon. After spending sometime with Tyrion he is finally convinced to head to westeros without his aunt and not come to her as a beggar... Back to the tower of joy

Ned promises Lyanna he will take care of her boy. After Lyanna kicks the bucket and Ned has figured out what to do with this baby who is the spitting image of Rhaeger he rides to Starfall with baby aegon... Ashara left White Harbor at some point to come back to Starfall. It is here where we get the most remarkable father like son baby swap!!! 

Ned claims to have returned to Starfall to bring back the ancestral sword Dawn of House Dayne. It his here where Ned see's Ashara with baby Jon and Ashara see's baby Aegon with Ned. Ned swaps Aegon for Jon (Remember Tywin saying Robb is his fathers son, perhaps he mentioned something Cersei:

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"

"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."

-AGOT NED XII

This swap solves all the troubles Ned would encounter if he took Aegon home. He wouldn't have to worry about hiding a Targaryen from his best friend and future king and he knows Ashara will look after Aegon as they loved each other. 

History tells us Ashara threw herself off the roof of the castle and killed herself because the grief was to much for her to bear that her lover killed her brother... Ashara most likely crossed the narrow sea with baby Aegon with limited people knowing. We must note Jon has done the baby swap as well! And Father and son swap a Dayne baby…

 Ned returns to winterfell with baby Jon and the rest is history. All of these events fit the timeline and has George's fingerprints all over. A real "fake" aegon is the perfect twist... 


Ned marries Ashara at some point (in White harbor while waiting for his northern lords to come to Winterfell) thus making Jon his only true born child and eldest child!

 

Timeline Recap:

281: Ned meets Ashara at the Tourney at Harrenhal
282- Abduction of Lyanna and deaths of Rickard and Brandon
282-283- Roberts Rebellion
283- Robb Stark born at Riverrun
284- Tower of Joy

 

283: Jon Arryn calls the banners
- Ned goes through the mountains and fingers (roughly 26-31 days about 470-570 miles)
- Ned than takes a fishing boat to Sisterton (roughly 15 days about 590-650 miles)
- Ned takes a boat to White Harbor (roughly 4 days about 420 miles)
- Ned rides or takes boat upriver to Winterfell (roughly 10 days 630 miles) (He leaves Ashara in White Harbor. Most likely being hidden in the Wolfs Den)
- Ned waits for his banner men to arrive at least 41 days (It is at this time Ned probably made a trip back to White Harbor to spend time with Ashara while he waits for his banner men. They do the tango a few times and she becomes pregnant with Jon.)
- Ned and Co march south to the crossing to meet Jon Arryn (roughly 83 days about 16650 miles)
- Ned Marches to Riverrun (about 24 days 470 miles)
- Ned rides to Stoney Sept (Battle of the Bells) to save Robert (about 8 days roughly 280 miles)
- Ned marches back to Riverrun to Marry Cat (about 10-14 days roughly 280 miles)
- Battle of the Trident 130 days later
- Dany is conceived prior to the sack of Kings Landing
-Sack of KL about 15 days later
- Jon is born (within a month of Dany's conception)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/17/2020 at 11:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

The timeline of the birth of Jon Snow: (The full timeline is at the end if you don’t want to read)

R+L=YG (fA)
N+A=J

Jon Snow is a true born son of Ned Stark but he is the ONLY true born child of Ned Stark!!!

Your probably wondering how the fuck is Jon Ned's true born child and ONLY TRUE BORN child. In order to tackle this we must take a hard look at Ned's past and primarily the events of the Tourney at Harrenhal/The Tower of Joy/Roberts Rebellion. 

The Tourney at Harrenhal took place in 281 AC. It is here where the seeds of Roberts Rebellion were planted. The obvious act which most people identify the Tourney at Harrenhal (Which was a coup to Replace Aerys with Rhaegar) with is when Prince Rhaeger crowned Lyanna Stark Queen of Love and Beauty and not his wife Elia.Though this may appear to be the most prominent moment in the entire tourney it is not. 

 

In A Storm of Swords Meera Reed tells Bran about the Knight of the Laughing Tree; Bran interrupts her story claiming its not true nor has he ever heard this story before (he's never hear it before because Ned forbade anyone at Winterfell to speak of Ashara Dayne that includes Old Nan).Meera disregards his comment and continues to tell the story. In the story she uses code names as a means to label each individual (I will not list all the names or go into the full story as I want to stay on track of the events as it relates to Ned) 

Brandon Stark- The Wild Wolf
Ned Stark- The Quiet Wolf (Ghost is described as a quiet wolf in Jons very first chapter):

 

His uncle was sharp-featured and gaunt as a mountain crag, but there was always a hint of laughter in his blue-grey eyes. He dressed in black, as befitted a man of the Night's Watch. Tonight it was rich black velvet, with high leather boots and a wide belt with a silver buckle. A heavy silver chain was looped round his neck. Benjen watched Ghost with amusement as he ate his onion. "A very quiet wolf," he observed.

 

- AGOT JON I

The importance of the story is when Meera tells Bran that the wild wolf (Brandon stark; Neds older brother) approached Ashara Dayne to dance with Ned. Brandon was already betrothed to Catelyn Tully and was trying to help his younger brother. 

 

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolfspoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

 

(Much more about the laughing tree and defeating the 3 knights (all loyal to Tywin…)

"Are you certain you never heard this tale before, Bran?" asked Jojen. "Your lord father never told it to you?"

Bran shook his head

  

-ASOS BAN II 

 

Ned and Ashara dance and hit it off and both fall for each other. Cant really knock Ned he's the 2nd eldest son so everything is promised to Brandon whose betrothed to Catelyn so he may as well get his dick wet with whom he wants plus she's fucking gorgeous. 

 

The Tourney ends 10 days later and everyone goes there separate ways... An unknown time later it turns out that Rhaeger kidnapped Lyanna Stark who is betrothed to Robert Baratheon and shit hits the fan. No one knows exactly where Ned goes after the tourney but it is known that he has to travel north through the mountains of the moon and the Vale as a means to call the banners. Just from that fact its safe to assume Ned went south somewhere with someone... 

 

Ashara did go back to Dragonstone after Harrenhal but she was dismissed a few months later (we hav yet to learn why exactly) Ned could have traveled with her to a certain point then had to split up as she was going with Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia back to Dragonstone. Ned could have been somewhere near Starfall. Eventually Ashara comes back to Starfall (or Ned) They were with each other for at least a year plus (Idk exactly how the westerosi calendar works but its pretty "earth" like) 

 

Now the next piece of history that we must look at is in 282. Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the announced date of his marriage between he and Catelyn will be. Little Finger was 15 years old and being fostered at Riverrun and asks for Catelyn Tully's hand. He has a duel with Brandon Stark as a means to win her hand. Little Finger gets absolutely destroyed and almost dies from his wounds. 

 

Note Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the wedding date is announced and after his duel with Little Finger he returns north to join his fathers wedding party and promises Catelyn he will be back. On their way back to Riverrun news reaches them that Rhaeger has abducted Lyanna and rode straight to Kings Landing instead of going to Riverrun. Most people know what happened at this moment. Brandon enters the Red Keep shouts out for Rhaeger to come out and Die... Instead King Aerys arrests Brandon (for plotting to kill Prince Rhaeger) demands that his father comes to Kings Landing to plead their fealty to house Targaryen and the realm. Once Rickard Stark enters the Red Keep he to is arrested and was burnt alive with wildfyre. Brandon was chained up and strangled to death as a means to save his father. This is extremely important to note because it gives a proper timeline of the events! So just a reminder... 

281- Tourney of Harrenhal (Ned meets Ashara)
282- Abduction of Lyanna Stark and deaths of Rickard and Brandon Stark
282-283- Roberts Rebellion

After the deaths of Rickard and Brandon, Jon Arryn was told by king Aerys to bring the head of Robert Baratheon (lyanna's betrothed) and Ned! Instead he says no and raises the banners. At this point we know that Ned hearing the news of his father/brother/sister is making his way north to call the banners. Here is where it gets very interesting. 

 

A Dance With Dragons, a Davos Chapter he is "imprisoned" in the Wolfs Den (I don't want to spend to much on the wolfs den at the moment but its basically a prison but has the luxury feel of any great castle giving Davos the thought that it isn't a prison at all but a hide out. As he was being hidden from the Freys and the Lannisters at this point. More on that another time. They were hiding Ashara.)

 

During the chapter we get the tale of the fishermans daughter:

 

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. A storm caught them on the way. The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down. They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly. Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn.

-ADWD DAVOS I

After he lands in White Harbor he goes to Winterfell to raise the northern lords. (It is very possible it could have been a different child of his that doesn't have a very long life- unlikely). We are told immediately Jon's age (14 then 15) The first mention of Robb's age is 15 but not till 23 chapters into the book after the mention of Jon turning 15 making him the eldest and lines up ideally with the timeline! Jon couldn't be the baby born in the Tower of Joy as that takes place in 284 (Will get to that later but if your born in 284 and the current year is 300 you would be 16 not 15.) Ashara was with him on his travels north. She stayed in the Wolfs Den like Davos. The Wolf Den was raised by King Jon Stark. 

This is where is gets very tricky... Ned married Ashara at some point after the Tourney at Harrenhal! Most likely in White Harbor as they have Weirwoods and are already hiding Ashara, so rather then bring her to Winterfell, stay in white harbor out of harms way- making it easy for a secret marriage. Ned was lord now he could do what he wanted… 

When Tywin finds out Robb marries Jeyne Westering after bedding her...Tywin tells the reader that he is his "Fathers son" perhaps a clue that Robb followed in the footsteps of his old man. This probably is the hardest event to prove definitively because no one knew where Ned was nor his relationship with Ashara (Ned and Ashara likely married in White Harbor as they have weirwoods there and believe in the old gods (this is a must remember). Robb and Jons’ storyline is meant to parallel young Ned in many ways. Being forced to marry is one of the.

 "It would have been kinder to leave her with a bastard in her belly," said Tyrion bluntly. The Westerlings stood to lose everything here; their lands, their castle, their very lives. A Lannister always pays his debts.

"Jeyne Westerling is her mother's daughter," said Lord Tywin, "and Robb Stark is his father's son."

-ASOS TYRION III

 In A Storm of Swords Arya is captured by the brotherhood without banners and meets a boy named Edric Dayne (the lord of Starfall his aunt and uncle are Ashara/Arthur aka sword of the morning) his nickname is Ned (for Ned Stark). 

all of a sudden, she felt very sad. "My father was called Ned too," she said.

"I know. I saw him at the Hand's tourney. I wanted to go up and speak with him, but I couldn't think what to say." Ned shivered beneath his cloak, a sodden length of pale purple. "Were you at the tourney? I saw your sister there. Ser Loras Tyrell gave her a rose."

"My lady?" Ned said at last. "You have a baseborn brother . . . Jon Snow?

“He is my milk brother."

"Brother?" Arya did not understand. "But you're from Dorne. How could you and Jon be blood?"

"Milk brothers. Not blood. My lady mother had no milk when I was little, so Wylla had to nurse me."

Arya was lost. "Who's Wylla?"

"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

"Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name." Arya gave Ned a wary look. "You know her? Truly?" Is he making mock of me? "If you lie I'll punch your face."

"Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly. "I swear it on the honor of my House."

"My lady?" Ned looked embarrassed. "I'm Edric Dayne, the . . . the Lord of Starfall."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?"

"Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring."

"Oh." Arya did not know what else to say. "Why did she jump in the sea, though?"

"Her heart was broken."

Sansa would have sighed and shed a tear for true love, but Arya just thought it was stupid. She couldn't say that to Ned, though, not about his own aunt. "Did someone break it?"

He hesitated. "Perhaps it's not my place . . ."

Gendry ignored that. "At least your father raised his bastard, not like mine. I don't even know my father's name. Some smelly drunk, I'd wager, like the others my mother dragged home from the alehouse. Whenever she got mad at me, she'd say, 'If your father was here, he'd beat you bloody.' That's all I know of him." He spat. "Well, if he was here now, might be I'd beat him bloody. But he's dead, I figure, and your father's dead too, so what does it matter who he lay with?"

It mattered to Arya, though she could not have said why. Ned was trying to apologize for upsetting her, but she did not want to hear it. She pressed her heels into her horse and left them both. Anguy the Archer was riding a few yards ahead. When she caught up with him, she said, "Dornishmen lie, don't they?"

"They're famous for it." The bowman grinned. "Of course, they say the same of us marchers, so there you are. What's the trouble now? Ned's a good lad . . ."

"He's just a stupid liar." Arya left the trail, leapt a rotten log and splashed across a streambed, ignoring the shouts of the outlaws behind her. They just want to tell me more lies. She thought about trying to get away from them, but there were too many and they knew these lands too well. What was the use of running if they caught you?

It was Harwin who rode up beside her, in the end. "Where do you think you're going, milady? You shouldn't run off. There are wolves in these woods, and worse things."

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

"She killed herself, though," said Arya uncertainly. "Ned says she jumped from a tower into the sea."

"So she did," Harwin admitted, as he led her back, "but that was for grief, I'd wager. She'd lost a brother, the Sword of the Morning." He shook his head. "Let it lie, my lady. They're dead, all of them. Let it lie . . . and please, when we come to Riverrun, say naught of this to your mother."

-ASOS Arya VIII

Think about this for a second Ned must have been truly loved by the members of House Dayne. Even after he "killed" (which I don't believe he did but thats for another day) Arthur Dayne the sword of the morning and is the cause of Ashara's "suicide" (which didn't happen either) that they willingly call the new lord of Starfall after him! And tell him this story? Notice how it ends, with Harwin telling her not to mention any of this Cat. If this story is false why even bother telling your future lord this story? What benefit does it bring? None. Wylla means wife… 

Now Arya being Arya doesn't believe him and freaks out because what does she really know she's only a child and Ned forbade anyone of speaking about Ashara (Also the only children of Ned who is described as looking like a Stark/Ned is Jon and Arya the rest of the children have the Tully look). At this point Ned reaches Winterfell leaving Ashara at White Harbor. 

In steps Lord Hoster Tully and the worst woman in the entire series Catelyn Tully. As a means to join the fight Hoster Demands Ned to marry Catelyn in his brothers place and Jon to Marry Lysa. In the midst of a rebellion Ned and Co don't exactly have time on their side and he is forced into his marriage with Cat. When these negotiations were taking place it is important to note that this is when the rift between The Blackfish and his older brother and liege lord came to an end… It is noted that after these negotiations Blackfish took his own sigil and left house Tully to give his service to House Arryn and became the knight of the gate in the Vale. Hoster had Southron Ambitions and wanted to improve his house' rank through marriage and politics. Blackfish clearly didn't want to force Ned's hand but there was nothing he can do. Hoster tried to force Blackfish to marry Bethany Redwyne years ago… 

Even on his deathbed, Catelyn thought sadly. "He has not wed. You know that, Father. Nor will he ever."

"I told him … commanded him. Marry! I was his lord. He knows. My right, to make his match. A good match. A Redwyne. Old House. Sweet girl, pretty … freckles … Bethany, yes. Poor child. Still waiting. Yes. Still …"

"Bethany Redwyne wed Lord Rowan years ago," Catelyn reminded him. "She has three children by him."

-AGOT Cat XI

Ned marries Cat in the sept at Riverrun in the EYES OF THE SEVEN. This is very important because northerners don't accept the 7 as their gods. They only accept the old gods and marriages in the North must be done in front of a Weirwood... Ned even makes a comment how he has shamed all of his family. 

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

-AGOT Ned II

Why did he shame his family (especially since he doesn't really have any at this point except for Ashara/Benjen/Lyanna/Cat) He married in front of the 7 which isn't accepted in the North and he technically has 2 wives so that could bring on some shame. 

After this Prince Rhaeger emerges out of no where and loses the Battle of the Trident and Tywin sacks Kings Landing. This ultimately concluded the rebellion at the end of 283. However their is still the siege at Storms End. Robert orders Ned to break the siege and successfully does so. At this point Ned is searching for Lyanna and happens to go precisely to the Tower of Joy. (Lyanna and Rhaeger most likely hid out in the crypts of Winterfell or in Winterfell somewhere but thats for another day).

 
281- Tourney at Harrenhal
282- Abduction of Lyanna and deaths of Rickard and Brandon
282-283- Roberts Rebellion
283- Robb Stark born at Riverrun
284- Tower of Joy

Somewhere in these years Ned married Ashara (in White Harbor) and possibly had Jon in late 283 or even very early 284 (most likely in mid-late 283 Jon was born)

After the siege at Storms End Ned travels towards Dorne and come upon the Tower of Joy. Someone must have told Ned to travel near here (my bet is Varys or Pycelle but no one really knows. Most likely Varys though You just can't let the fact that out of the entire realm Ned by chance stumbles upon the location of his sister. Something doesn't add up...) 

 

Ned and company arrive at the Tower of Joy and see's 3 members of the Kingsguard Ser Oswell Whent Ser Athur Dayne and the Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower. First off as readers we have to note that 3 of the best fighters in the entire world are just casually outside of this random tower and not hiding or inside. The 3 of them could have easily defeated Ned and his entire company if they were positioned properly. I don't know why they would just be hanging around outside especially if they're protecting the Princes' pregnant mistress/girlfriend. 

 

Anyway Ned and Co get into a dispute with the Kingsguard and everyone is killed except Howland Reed and ned (I also believe that the Kingsguard members didn't die and are alive and well.) Ned Runs up the stairs to his dying sister and there he see's her in her pool of blood and a new born baby AND a wet nurse! There was another person with Lyanna, this is most likely Wylla. Ned brought her with him to Starfall and most likely to Winterfell. Someone had to give the baby the mothers milk, sure as hell wasn’t going to the Ned...

 Edric Dayne says to Arya that Wylla was Jons mother and or wet nurse… Anyway Ned see's his sister and she says to him to promise to watch out for her baby boy. Theres only one major issue…

He is the spitting image of Rhaeger and has full blown Targ Traits. The platinum white blonde hair the purple lilac color eyes. Ned knowing Robert and his current mission to kill every targaryen isn't going to be very thrilled that the women he loves and is betrothed to just gave birth to a replica of Rhaeger.

In a Dance with Dragons Tyrion is shipped off to Pentos via Varys to escape. Tyrion being the witty little drunk that he is discovers a very special someone during his travels through the free cities on his way to Mereen. 

But before we move on any further Rhaegers son Aegon (via Elia) was born in either 281 or 282 making him either 18 or 19 by the start of A Dance With Dragons... When Tywin sacked Kings Landing Varys claimed he switched baby aegon out with another and that he was shipped off the narrow sea to safety as was being groomed his entire life to be the rightful King but more importantly a good King who rules for his people and not for one self... I think its safe to assume baby Aegon was killed by Tywin and Varys knows that... 

Anyway Tyrion is on his way to meet Danny  and he is on a ship called the Shy Maid with a Sell Sword going by the name of Griff and his son Young Griff. A maester going by Haldon Halfmaester, Another sellsword named Duck a Septa named Lemore (who is most likely Ashara Dayne as Tyrion points out she has stretch marks from a previous birth...but never her eye color…) and a rhyonish couple helping them navigate the waters (Just some more IAF history Young Griff and Egg from the Dunk and Egg tales are the only 2 characters that have a floppy brim straw hat and a knight/guard egg has a dunk so why not give aegon a duck.These 2 characteristics can't be thrown out the window both are wearing the same straw hat using a alias and are accompanied on their journey with a sellsword/knight who eventually become the first of their kingsguard....) The first thing Tyrion lets us know is that the boy is about 15/16 (there is a drastic difference between a 15/16 year old and a 18/19 year old) (15/16 fits ideally with the timeline and the Tower of Joy.

Note that the tower of Joy scenes we get from Ned are during his fever dreams (he was drugged up on milk of the poppy (if anybody has a vile of that let me know). and his dreams don't depict the truth of the situation. George has even said It's a fever dream and that doesn't mean its 100% accurate. 

Tyrion who is going by the nickname Hugor Hill or Yollo finally pieces everything out. After having some wine and a few games of Cyvasse it comes to him... Why does a son of a sellsword need 1) a body guard 2) a arms trainer 3) a septa 4) a maester.

Tyrion notices these don't exactly add up along with his looks. We even get from a Jon connington chapter that Aegon is the spitting image of Rhaeger. And says something extremely similar Rhaeagr said to him years ago:

 

Prince Aegon Targaryen was not near as biddable as the boy Young Griff had been, however. The better part of an hour had passed before he finally turned up in the solar, with Duck at his side. "Lord Connington," he said, "I like your castle."

"Your father's lands are beautiful," he said. His silvery hair was blowing in the wind, and his eyes were a deep purple, darker than this boy's. 

Jon Connington stepped out onto the high battlements, the view was just as intoxicating as he remembered: the crag with its wind-carved rocks and jagged spires, the sea below growling and worrying at the foot of the castle like some restless beast, endless leagues of sky and cloud, the wood with its autumnal colors. "Your father's lands are beautiful," Prince Rhaegar had said, standing right where Jon was standing now.

-ADWD The Griffin Reborn

This Young Griff imposter even has dyed his hair blue "in memory" of his Tyroshi mother. The only woman in the world of ice and fire whose associated with the color Blue is Lyanna Stark... Anyway Tyrion being his witty self calls out Young Griff for who he really is and his companions... It turns out that Griff is the exile lord Jon Connington, Young Griff is Aegon (please note that Aegon thinks he's the rightful heir and son of Rhaeger Targaryen and Elia Martell and not Lyanna Stark (He would be 3/4 years older if he was the "real" aegon. After spending sometime with Tyrion he is finally convinced to head to westeros without his aunt and not come to her as a beggar... Back to the tower of joy

Ned promises Lyanna he will take care of her boy. After Lyanna kicks the bucket and Ned has figured out what to do with this baby who is the spitting image of Rhaeger he rides to Starfall with baby aegon... Ashara left White Harbor at some point to come back to Starfall. It is here where we get the most remarkable father like son baby swap!!! 

Ned claims to have returned to Starfall to bring back the ancestral sword Dawn of House Dayne. It his here where Ned see's Ashara with baby Jon and Ashara see's baby Aegon with Ned. Ned swaps Aegon for Jon (Remember Tywin saying Robb is his fathers son, perhaps he mentioned something Cersei:

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"

"For a start," said Ned, "I do not kill children. You would do well to listen, my lady. I shall say this only once. When the king returns from his hunt, I intend to lay the truth before him. You must be gone by then. You and your children, all three, and not to Casterly Rock. If I were you, I should take ship for the Free Cities, or even farther, to the Summer Isles or the Port of Ibben. As far as the winds blow."

-AGOT NED XII

This swap solves all the troubles Ned would encounter if he took Aegon home. He wouldn't have to worry about hiding a Targaryen from his best friend and future king and he knows Ashara will look after Aegon as they loved each other. 

History tells us Ashara threw herself off the roof of the castle and killed herself because the grief was to much for her to bear that her lover killed her brother... Ashara most likely crossed the narrow sea with baby Aegon with limited people knowing. We must note Jon has done the baby swap as well! And Father and son swap a Dayne baby…

 Ned returns to winterfell with baby Jon and the rest is history. All of these events fit the timeline and has George's fingerprints all over. A real "fake" aegon is the perfect twist... 


Ned marries Ashara at some point (in White harbor while waiting for his northern lords to come to Winterfell) thus making Jon his only true born child and eldest child!

 

Timeline Recap:

281: Ned meets Ashara at the Tourney at Harrenhal
282- Abduction of Lyanna and deaths of Rickard and Brandon
282-283- Roberts Rebellion
283- Robb Stark born at Riverrun
284- Tower of Joy

 

283: Jon Arryn calls the banners
- Ned goes through the mountains and fingers (roughly 26-31 days about 470-570 miles)
- Ned than takes a fishing boat to Sisterton (roughly 15 days about 590-650 miles)
- Ned takes a boat to White Harbor (roughly 4 days about 420 miles)
- Ned rides or takes boat upriver to Winterfell (roughly 10 days 630 miles) (He leaves Ashara in White Harbor. Most likely being hidden in the Wolfs Den)
- Ned waits for his banner men to arrive at least 41 days (It is at this time Ned probably made a trip back to White Harbor to spend time with Ashara while he waits for his banner men. They do the tango a few times and she becomes pregnant with Jon.)
- Ned and Co march south to the crossing to meet Jon Arryn (roughly 83 days about 16650 miles)
- Ned Marches to Riverrun (about 24 days 470 miles)
- Ned rides to Stoney Sept (Battle of the Bells) to save Robert (about 8 days roughly 280 miles)
- Ned marches back to Riverrun to Marry Cat (about 10-14 days roughly 280 miles)
- Battle of the Trident 130 days later
- Dany is conceived prior to the sack of Kings Landing
-Sack of KL about 15 days later
- Jon is born (within a month of Dany's conception)

 

 

 

 

 

 

You called it. My mind is blown. I will be re-reading this for days to come. I have never ever thought about it in that perspective!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

In A Storm of Swords Meera Reed tells Bran about the Knight of the Laughing Tree; Bran interrupts her story claiming its not true

No he doesn't. 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

nor has he ever heard this story before

This part he does say several times.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

(he's never hear it before because Ned forbade anyone at Winterfell to speak of Ashara Dayne that includes Old Nan).

Thats not true.
Ned forbade asking about Jon.
He asked where Cat heard Ashara's name, so that he could shut down rumours about Jon.
Cat noted that Ashara's name was never heard again, but neither were other rumours about Jon's origins. Ashara's name not being heard was only a byproduct of that.

Quote

That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. "Never ask me about Jon," he said, cold as ice. "He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady." She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne's name was never heard in Winterfell again.

You are falling into the trap of accepting Cat's POV bias as the fact, instead of listening to what she actually remembered. 
Cat started the conversation thinking Ashara was the mother and although Ned explicitly reacted to something different Cat didn't notice and ended the conversation still concentrating on Ashara. 
Follow Ned's words though, not Cat's interpretation of them.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

- AGOT JON I

The importance of the story is when Meera tells Bran that the wild wolf (Brandon stark; Neds older brother) approached Ashara Dayne to dance with Ned. Brandon was already betrothed to Catelyn Tully and was trying to help his younger brother. 

 

"Under Harren's roof he ate and drank with the wolves, and many of their sworn swords besides, barrowdown men and moose and bears and mermen. The dragon prince sang a song so sad it made the wolf maid sniffle, but when her pup brother teased her for crying she poured wine over his head. A black brother spoke, asking the knights to join the Night's Watch. The storm lord drank down the knight of skulls and kisses in a wine-cup war. The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf . . . but only after the wild wolfspoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench.

There are two (more really) main possibilities here.
i) Brandon asked Ashara to dance with Ned because Ned wanted it
ii) Brandon asked Ashara to dance with Ned because Brandon saw that quiet wolf Ned was missing out on the party.
Note the underlined. Ned was shy. Not just shy of Ashara in particular, but too shy to even leave his bench.

Given that there are no thoughts of Ashara in Ned's head, that points us at ii) rather than i).
And that is before we have Barristan's thoughts about Ned, about Ashara and her disgrace and looking to Stark, about Mud men vs Fire men.
Then add on top of that Brandon's attitude to deflowering noblewomen, his inability to follow through after such an act with Ashara, and compare with Ned's attitudes then and now (below), and his freedom compared to Brandon.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned and Ashara dance and hit it off and both fall for each other.

Thats supposition on your part.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Cant really knock Ned he's the 2nd eldest son so everything is promised to Brandon whose betrothed to Catelyn so he may as well get his dick wet with whom he wants plus she's fucking gorgeous. 

Thats not Ned's attitude, now or then.

Quote

"You were never the boy you were," Robert grumbled. "More's the pity. And yet there was that one time...
...
"
Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned was never a player. Even though he hung out with one and must have had ample opportunity. 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

The Tourney ends 10 days later and everyone goes there separate ways... An unknown time later it turns out that Rhaeger kidnapped Lyanna Stark who is betrothed to Robert Baratheon and shit hits the fan. No one knows exactly where Ned goes after the tourney but it is known that he has to travel north through the mountains of the moon and the Vale as a means to call the banners. Just from that fact its safe to assume Ned went south somewhere with someone... 

No, it isn't.
Ned was in the Vale (Aerie or Gates of the Moon most like) when Aerys sent his demand for Ned and Robert's heads to Jon Arryn. From the vale he had to travel north through the mountains of the moon and parts of the Vale in order to get home to Winterfell.
There is no hint or indication that Ned went south after the Tourney at Harrenhal.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ashara did go back to Dragonstone after Harrenhal

I agree thats likely (or to KL), but its not known.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

but she was dismissed a few months later (we hav yet to learn why exactly)

I believe this is likely true, but we don't know it for sure. 
She was disgraced at Harrenhal, and looked to Stark. Later she supposedly gave birth to a stillborn baby.
The facts point to her getting pregnant at Harrenhal, which would lead to her almost certain dismissal several months later when it started to show. But we don't know anything for sure.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned could have traveled with her to a certain point then had to split up as she was going with Prince Rhaegar and Princess Elia back to Dragonstone. Ned could have been somewhere near Starfall.

There is no indication Ned was anywhere near Starfall before the rebellion, and such an idea doesn't fit well with anything we know.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Eventually Ashara comes back to Starfall (or Ned) They were with each other for at least a year plus (Idk exactly how the westerosi calendar works but its pretty "earth" like) 

There no indication Ned and Ashara were together at all after Harrenhal. A year could barely be squeezed in if you fit everything else to its maximum range to suit, but its likely only around 7-10 months between Harrenhal and the Rebellion starting.
The best indications for the timing of Harrenhal is late 281, though its possible it could be closer to the middle of the year. This is from the WoIaF and commentary about the 2 month long false spring and winter returning with a vengeance at the end of the year.

Jon's name day (his official one, which may not be the same as his real one) can be placed around early August. Robb is officially older, so his name day must be in late July, or early August at the latest.
Robb was born in Riverrun in 283 July-ish), which places his conception in 282 (Oct-Nov-ish). Thats several months into the rebellion already (a lot of movements and battles happen before Ned and Cat wed and Robb is conceived), so the rebellion started in mid 282, likely between April and July.
Rhaegar left in Jan 282 on his 'journey' which 'ultimately' led him back to the Riverlands and Lyanna's 'abduction'. So there is some unknown amount of time (weeks, or months, probably several months) where he travels through other regions (Summerhall is a strong possibility) before Lyanna is abducted, then there is time needed after her abduction for news to get out, Brandon to ride to KL, the fathers to be summoned to KL and arrive, the trials and executions before Aerys sends word to Jon Arryn to send Ned and Robert's heads and the rebellion can begin.
 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Now the next piece of history that we must look at is in 282. Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the announced date of his marriage between he and Catelyn will be. Little Finger was 15 years old and being fostered at Riverrun and asks for Catelyn Tully's hand. He has a duel with Brandon Stark as a means to win her hand. Little Finger gets absolutely destroyed and almost dies from his wounds. 

Yes, this is likely early 282. It needs to be after Brandon's name day, as he was born in 262 and 20 at the time of the duel, but it also has to be before Lyanna's abduction (or at least before news of it reaches anyone).

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Note Brandon Stark is in Riverrun when the wedding date is announced and after his duel with Little Finger he returns north to join his fathers wedding party and promises Catelyn he will be back. On their way back to Riverrun news reaches them that Rhaeger has abducted Lyanna and rode straight to Kings Landing instead of going to Riverrun. Most people know what happened at this moment. Brandon enters the Red Keep shouts out for Rhaeger to come out and Die... Instead King Aerys arrests Brandon (for plotting to kill Prince Rhaeger) demands that his father comes to Kings Landing to plead their fealty to house Targaryen and the realm. Once Rickard Stark enters the Red Keep he to is arrested and was burnt alive with wildfyre.

No, he was not arrested and burnt (at least, not 'just like that". He was to be given a trial to answer for his son's crimes, which he had freely come to do, and he chose trial by combat. Aerys cheated the trial of course...

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Brandon was chained up and strangled to death as a means to save his father. This is extremely important to note because it gives a proper timeline of the events! So just a reminder... 

281- Tourney of Harrenhal (Ned meets Ashara)
282- Abduction of Lyanna Stark and deaths of Rickard and Brandon Stark
282-283- Roberts Rebellion

Right. But take note of the best estimates of each.
Tourney - Oct-Nov 281, could be July-Dec 281
Abduction - Feb-April 282, arguably could be January or May, but thats really stretching other things.
Rebellion - May-July 282 to May-July 283. Could maybe squeeze a month or so either way.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

After the deaths of Rickard and Brandon, Jon Arryn was told by king Aerys to bring the head of Robert Baratheon (lyanna's betrothed) and Ned! Instead he says no and raises the banners. At this point we know that Ned hearing the news of his father/brother/sister is making his way north to call the banners. Here is where it gets very interesting.  

Ned and Robert were with Jon, likely at the Eyrie or the Gates of the Moon when the demand comes and the decision is made to rebel. Ned has to make his way north through the Mountains of the Moon and the Fingers and get a ship to the Stepstones and on to White Harbor to get back to Winterfell. He likely chose that difficult route because there are fewer significant Seats along it and they would have been uncertain who would join them and who would hold for the King. He wouldn't want to risk being taken captive on the way through the vale and being delvered to Aerys instead of getting to Winterfell
Robert and Jon went to Gulltown (the quickest way to get Robert home). Gulltown declared for the King and they had to storm it, the opening 'battle' of the war (probably a rather small scale, a few hundred or a few thousand men at most).

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

During the chapter we get the tale of the fishermans daughter:

"At the dawn of Robert's Rebellion. The Mad King had sent to the Eyrie for Stark's head, but Jon Arryn sent him back defiance. Gulltown stayed loyal to the throne, though. To get home and call his banners, Stark had to cross the mountains to the Fingers and find a fisherman to carry him across the Bite. A storm caught them on the way. The fisherman drowned, but his daughter got Stark to the Sisters before the boat went down. They say he left her with a bag of silver and a bastard in her belly. Jon Snow, she named him, after Arryn.

This is nothing more than a local rumor putting together 2+2 and getting 381.
We know from Robert that Ned wasn't the type to do that. We also have a complete lack on connections inside Ned's head for that.
We know that Robb is 'known' by all to be older than Jon, and they were together young - Jon was already at Winterfell by the time Cat and Robb arrived and Robb was around 3 months old (Cat and Ned were apart for the first year of their marriage). For Jon to be the Fisherman's daughter's child - Ashara or not - he'd be at least 3 months older than Robb and its nearly impossible to disguise a 6 month old as younger than a 3 month old when the two are together for a sustained time. There are too many significant cognitive development milestones that are too consistent, and neither Jon nor Robb are cognitively impaired.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

-ADWD DAVOS I

After he lands in White Harbor he goes to Winterfell to raise the northern lords. (It is very possible it could have been a different child of his that doesn't have a very long life- unlikely). We are told immediately Jon's age (14 then 15) The first mention of Robb's age is 15 but not till 23 chapters into the book after the mention of Jon turning 15 making him the eldest and lines up ideally with the timeline!

No, Robb is officially older than Jon, everyone knows it. Ned tells Robert that he dishonoured Cat, which means he fucked someone else after he married her. Cat thinks that Ned was welcome to the solace of another woman while away from her at war and she could easily forgive even him getting a bastard if only Jon was not kept in her face every day. Cat would also be substantially more freaked by Jon's presence and his threat to her children's future if Jon was the elder.

Jon may actually be slightly older. But officially he is definitely younger. They are close enough in age that infant Robb can pass as older than infant Jon when they are together.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Jon couldn't be the baby born in the Tower of Joy as that takes place in 284

No, it doesn't. Its likely within a month or so of the end of the war, which ends in mid 283. Jon, name day in August, noted from events within the books (see the best timeline details available here: 

fits perfectly.

 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

This is where is gets very tricky... Ned married Ashara at some point after the Tourney at Harrenhal! Most likely in White Harbor as they have Weirwoods and are already hiding Ashara, so rather then bring her to Winterfell, stay in white harbor out of harms way- making it easy for a secret marriage. Ned was lord now he could do what he wanted… 

 

This is pure fan fiction. There is no evidence for any of it, just suppositions, many based on errors and false conclusions.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

-ASOS TYRION III

 In A Storm of Swords Arya is captured by the brotherhood without banners and meets a boy named Edric Dayne (the lord of Starfall his aunt and uncle are Ashara/Arthur aka sword of the morning) his nickname is Ned (for Ned Stark). 

"Jon Snow's mother. He never told you? She's served us for years and years. Since before I was born."

"Jon never knew his mother. Not even her name." Arya gave Ned a wary look. "You know her? Truly?" Is he making mock of me? "If you lie I'll punch your face."

"Wylla was my wetnurse," he repeated solemnly. "I swear it on the honor of my House."

"My lady?" Ned looked embarrassed. "I'm Edric Dayne, the . . . the Lord of Starfall."

"My father was Ser Arthur's elder brother. Lady Ashara was my aunt. I never knew her, though. She threw herself into the sea from atop the Palestone Sword before I was born."

"Why would she do that?" said Arya, startled.

Ned looked wary. Maybe he was afraid that she was going to throw something at him. "Your lord father never spoke of her?" he said. "The Lady Ashara Dayne, of Starfall?"

"Before Robert was king. She met your father and his brothers at Harrenhal, during the year of the false spring."

"Oh." Arya did not know what else to say. "Why did she jump in the sea, though?"

"Her heart was broken."

Note several things.
1. Ned Dayne wasn't born when any of this happened. He's merely repeating what he's been told.
2. His source for information about Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne being in love is his aunt Allyria.
3. His Aunt Allyria has been betrothed for over 6 years to Beric Dondarrion, who is a ruling lord in his early 20s. This indicates that Allyria is almost certainly very young also - if she were alive and old enough to understand relationships when Ned and Ashara were supposedly a thing then she'd be in her mid-late 20s at least now, if not closing on 30. Virtually an old maid in their society, to be unmarried so late with a perfect groom already hooked up and the families still in good standing with each other. Thus she is almost certainly still (during AGoT) under-aged for a marriage, putting her as not yet born or a swaddling infant when Ashara 'died' some 15 years before.

There is a theory (which I like, but which lacks evidence) that Allyria Dayne is in fact Ashara's not-stillborn daughter (probably Brandon's), taken in by the mother in order to have a better life than a bastard would.

Further, note the deeper meaning of what Ned Dayne takes as 'truth' unquestioned. 
Ned and Ashara were in love, but Wylla is the mother of Ned's bastard. 
So according to Ned Dayne, Ned Stark was in love with Ashara, but fucking Wylla on the side?
If you don't know Ned Stark, fine. But we do, we've been inside his head, we've heard his closest friend grumble about him being too strait-laced even as a boy. Ned Dayne's picture does not fit Ned Stark.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

"Aye, he told me. Lady Ashara Dayne. It's an old tale, that one. I heard it once at Winterfell, when I was no older than you are now." He took hold of her bridle firmly and turned her horse around. "I doubt there's any truth to it. But if there is, what of it? When Ned met this Dornish lady, his brother Brandon was still alive, and it was him betrothed to Lady Catelyn, so there's no stain on your father's honor. There's nought like a tourney to make the blood run hot, so maybe some words were whispered in a tent of a night, who can say? Words or kisses, maybe more, but where's the harm in that? Spring had come, or so they thought, and neither one of them was pledged."

Note that Harwin doubts its true.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

-ASOS Arya VIII

Think about this for a second Ned must have been truly loved by the members of House Dayne. Even after he "killed" (which I don't believe he did but thats for another day) Arthur Dayne the sword of the morning and is the cause of Ashara's "suicide" (which didn't happen either) that they willingly call the new lord of Starfall after him! And tell him this story?

Think about what Ned actually did. And what that means to House Dayne.

He returned Dawn.
Their 10,000 year old house sword. Absolutely unique. Worth more than 100 Valyrian swords. The thing that means more to them than any object does to any other House. It is their founding story, is their house symbol. Its their House seat location. They build their house history and honour around it, with the title "Sword of the Morning" and its use only going to their most special recipients - not the ruling lords even.

Ned Stark won it in combat.

He went out of his way to give it back to them. Because he thought that was right.
Contrast that to what Tywin did to Ice...

House Dayne would no longer be House Dayne, if not for Ned Stark.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Notice how it ends, with Harwin telling her not to mention any of this Cat. If this story is false why even bother telling your future lord this story? What benefit does it bring? None.

Its what they believe (or Allyria at least). That doesn't make it true. We know its not true - no way super-honourable, never the boy you were, 'that one time', Ned Stark was fucking the help on the side while in love with the Star Maiden.

There is a benefit to the story though.
Ashara Dayne was disgraced from court, supposedly birthed a bastard out of wedlock, and supposedly took her own life. Its a sordid, miserable little story.
This story, from young Allyria, turns Ashara into a tragic romantic in a young girl's eyes. Thats the benefit.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

(Also the only children of Ned who is described as looking like a Stark/Ned is Jon and Arya the rest of the children have the Tully look).

Right. So Arya, indisputedly the child of Ned and Cat, looks like Ned. Cat and Ned's other children look like Tully's. Just as we see everywhere else in ASoIAF (except the super-Baratheon Genes, and to a less proven extent the super-Lannister genes), children generally get the 'look' of one parent or other.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

At this point Ned reaches Winterfell leaving Ashara at White Harbor. 

Lets set aside that there is no evidence Ashara was ever there.
Why would Ned leave her there? 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

In steps Lord Hoster Tully and the worst woman in the entire series Catelyn Tully. As a means to join the fight Hoster Demands Ned to marry Catelyn in his brothers place

That was already set up. Brandon/Cat was a political marriage, not a love match. Ned/Cat merely continued that - the alliance being needed more than ever. And it was already 'a thing' when Littlefinger learned of Brandon's death and immediately wrote to Cat again, even though Ned and Cat still hadn't met.

Lysa-Jon was a last minute addition, yes. Hoster saw an opportunity to squeeze old Jon with a proven fertile young wife after he lost his backup heir (he'd already lost his nephew and heir who was one of Brandon's companions). Cat and Ned's wedding had already been set up though.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

-AGOT Cat XI

Ned marries Cat in the sept at Riverrun in the EYES OF THE SEVEN. This is very important because northerners don't accept the 7 as their gods.

Some do, some don't. Marriages in a sept are valid though. There's way too much evidence proving that and none against. 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

They only accept the old gods and marriages in the North must be done in front of a Weirwood...

There is no evidence that they only accept these marriages.
They prefer them, naturally, but if they didn't accept them they couldn't have accepted the bastard Robb as their King.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned even makes a comment how he has shamed all of his family. 

No, just Cat (and himself).

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

 

"Wylla. Yes." The king grinned. "She must have been a rare wench if she could make Lord Eddard Stark forget his honor, even for an hour. You never told me what she looked like …"

Ned's mouth tightened in anger. "Nor will I. Leave it be, Robert, for the love you say you bear me. I dishonored myself and I dishonored Catelyn, in the sight of gods and men."

-AGOT Ned II

Thats because after marrying her he supposedly went off and fucked someone else to get a bastard. Dishonor to him and dishonor to Cat. Family is never mentioned.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

After this Prince Rhaeger emerges out of no where and loses the Battle of the Trident and Tywin sacks Kings Landing. This ultimately concluded the rebellion at the end of 283. However their is still the siege at Storms End. Robert orders Ned to break the siege and successfully does so. At this point Ned is searching for Lyanna and happens to go precisely to the Tower of Joy.

Well, all we know is that he went straight from KL to Storms End where he accepted the surrender of the Tyrells, and then he turns up with a small band of close friends at ToJ.
We don't know he was searching for Lyanna then or earlier.
What seems likely is that he learned something that sent him to the ToJ to find her.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned and company arrive at the Tower of Joy and see's 3 members of the Kingsguard Ser Oswell Whent Ser Athur Dayne and the Lord Commander Ser Gerold Hightower. First off as readers we have to note that 3 of the best fighters in the entire world are just casually outside of this random tower and not hiding or inside. The 3 of them could have easily defeated Ned and his entire company if they were positioned properly.

Not likely. This is not hollywood, where super-men kill many nameless drones. Ned and most of his friends were veteran fighters and even without Howland Reed outnumbered the Kingsguard 2-1.
And the KG couldn't just hole up in defence. If Ned and his men don't attack, the numbers can only get worse for the KG, many many many times worse. Their only hope at that stage is a swift victory and try to disappear again before more rebels find them.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

I don't know why they would just be hanging around outside especially if they're protecting the Princes' pregnant mistress/girlfriend.  

They would have seen Ned and his men coming for some time. But they couldn't leave with Lyanna sick inside.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Anyway Ned and Co get into a dispute with the Kingsguard and everyone is killed except Howland Reed and ned (I also believe that the Kingsguard members didn't die and are alive and well.) Ned Runs up the stairs to his dying sister and there he see's her in her pool of blood and a new born baby AND a wet nurse! There was another person with Lyanna, this is most likely Wylla. Ned brought her with him to Starfall and most likely to Winterfell. Someone had to give the baby the mothers milk, sure as hell wasn’t going to the Ned...

We suspect much of this is true, or near true, but its not certain.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

 Edric Dayne says to Arya that Wylla was Jons mother and or wet nurse… Anyway Ned see's his sister and she says to him to promise to watch out for her baby boy. Theres only one major issue…

He is the spitting image of Rhaeger and has full blown Targ Traits. The platinum white blonde hair the purple lilac color eyes.

Thats pure fanfic, unknown. 
Rhaegar's first child, Rhaenys, looked like her dornish mother. His second child, Aegon, had the Targaryen look. A third child could look like the mother or the father.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

But before we move on any further Rhaegers son Aegon (via Elia) was born in either 281 or 282 making him either 18 or 19 by the start of A Dance With Dragons... When Tywin sacked Kings Landing Varys claimed he switched baby aegon out with another and that he was shipped off the narrow sea to safety as was being groomed his entire life to be the rightful King but more importantly a good King who rules for his people and not for one self... I think its safe to assume baby Aegon was killed by Tywin and Varys knows that... 

There is no 'safe to assume' here. 
Varys has a cogent explanation for how he got baby Aegon out alive and the child murdered wasn't Aegon. It fits with all the known facts. It may or may not be true, but there is no safe assumption either way here.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

thing Tyrion lets us know is that the boy is about 15/16 (there is a drastic difference between a 15/16 year old and a 18/19 year old) (15/16 fits ideally with the timeline and the Tower of Joy.

Tyrion is bad at estimating ages. 

Quote
Tyrion sighed. "You are remarkably polite for a bastard, Snow. What you see is a dwarf. You are what, twelve?"
"Fourteen," the boy said.

He also estimate's Lemore's age as 'past 40', yet Ashara should be in her late 30s. 
 

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Note that the tower of Joy scenes we get from Ned are during his fever dreams (he was drugged up on milk of the poppy (if anybody has a vile of that let me know). and his dreams don't depict the truth of the situation.

While that is not entire untrue, its also not fully true. The ToJ dream is an old dream, a familiar one, one that he knows already and references (gives it a title) as it opens, before we even see the first scene playing.
Its not just a poppy induced dream, though its possible some poppy effects muddle into it (vis a vis some of the weirder effects)

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

George has even said It's a fever dream and that doesn't mean its 100% accurate. 

Again, thats not exactly accurate.
https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Tower_of_Joy

Quote

I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

The context is that a question was asked which gave away one of GRRM's secrets.
What George said is that Ned's account was in the context of a dream (true)... and a fever dream at that (true, but deceptive because its an old non-fever dream first)... and that our dreams are not always literal (also true, and does not directly refer to this dream necessarily).

All he really said was that if you take everything literally in this dream, you might be wrong. Not will be, might be.

I don't imagine that there really was a storm of rose petals across a blood streaked sky for example, or that Ned's companions were really wraiths.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

-ADWD The Griffin Reborn

This Young Griff imposter even has dyed his hair blue "in memory" of his Tyroshi mother. The only woman in the world of ice and fire whose associated with the color Blue is Lyanna Stark...

Tyroshi blue is bright.
Lyanna's blue is pale, winter roses.
A number of women are associate with blue in ASoIaF, most notably Brienne of Tarth off the top of my head.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned promises Lyanna he will take care of her boy. After Lyanna kicks the bucket and Ned has figured out what to do with this baby who is the spitting image of Rhaeger he rides to Starfall with baby aegon... Ashara left White Harbor at some point to come back to Starfall. It is here where we get the most remarkable father like son baby swap!!! 

Or much more simply and much better fitting all the known facts (and characters, Ned simply takes Jon from ToJ and rides to Starfall with him and Wylla. Starfall believe Wylla is the mother because Ned rode in with the two of them together, word gets back to Robert who also believes this (and casually references her to Ned, who supplies him a name).

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned claims to have returned to Starfall to bring back the ancestral sword Dawn of House Dayne.

He actually did that. Starfall has Dawn.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

"Honor," she spat. "How dare you play the noble lord with me! What do you take me for? You've a bastard of your own, I've seen him. Who was the mother, I wonder? Some Dornish peasant you raped while her holdfast burned? A whore? Or was it the grieving sister, the Lady Ashara? She threw herself into the sea, I'm told. Why was that? For the brother you slew, or the child you stole? Tell me, my honorable Lord Eddard, how are you any different from Robert, or me, or Jaime?"

-AGOT NED XII

Cersei doesn't know anything really, which is obvious by her throwing random varied accusations. She knows what's not been hidden. Ned Stark went south after the war, turned up at Starfall and came away from there with a bastard. Everything else is just random sallies.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

This swap solves all the troubles Ned would encounter if he took Aegon home.

Why would Ned care about Aegon?

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

He wouldn't have to worry about hiding a Targaryen from his best friend and future king and he knows Ashara will look after Aegon as they loved each other. 

Ashara was friends with Elia. 
Why does Ned tell us that "some secrets are to dangerous to share even with those you love"?
Why does Ned keep going back to Lyanna with pain, but not Ashara?

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

History tells us Ashara threw herself off the roof of the castle

Rumour tells us she threw herself from the Palestone Tower into the sea. And no body was found. History is silent.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

and killed herself because the grief was to much for her to bear that her lover killed her brother

Not even rumour tells us that.
Barristan 'knows' she committed suicide, and is makes some guesses to himself as to why. He doesn't have any conclusion, or any knowledge of the truth and can;t even pick one guess as better than another.
Allyria Dayne's story is barely any better, clearly factually wrong in part, and clearly rather remote from the actual events.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

Ned marries Ashara at some point (in White harbor while waiting for his northern lords to come to Winterfell) thus making Jon his only true born child and eldest child! 

Again, there is no evidence for this. None that she was in White Harbour, none that she was in WInterfell, none that they were married and even the idea that they were in love is a clearly flawed rumour from people who weren't actually around them and are making blind guesses.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

283: Jon Arryn calls the banners
- Ned goes through the mountains and fingers (roughly 26-31 days about 470-570 miles)

Maybe. We have too little information to narrow this down. You appear to have not realised that he starts already part way through the mountains. 
I'd estimate less.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

- Ned than takes a fishing boat to Sisterton (roughly 15 days about 590-650 miles)
- Ned takes a boat to White Harbor (roughly 4 days about 420 miles)
- Ned rides or takes boat upriver to Winterfell (roughly 10 days 630 miles)
- Ned waits for his banner men to arrive at least 41 days (It is at this time Ned probably made a trip back to White Harbor to spend time with Ashara while he waits for his banner men. They do the tango a few times and she becomes pregnant with Jon.)
- Ned and Co march south to the crossing to meet Jon Arryn (roughly 83 days about 16650 miles)
- Ned Marches to Riverrun (about 24 days 470 miles)
- Ned rides to Stoney Sept (Battle of the Bells) to save Robert (about 8 days roughly 280 miles)
- Ned marches back to Riverrun to Marry Cat (about 10-14 days roughly 280 miles)

Your calcs here are all over the place. Boats go 20 miles/day, then 100 m/d, then 60m/d, marches are 20 m/d (I'm assuiming 16650 should drop 1 6),  35m/d, 20-28 m/d.
GRRM says its not wise to do this - he doesn't and he may have some things slightly wrong. That said, done well, it helps us figure stuff out.

You've also got around 7.5 months after the start of the Rebellion for Robb to be conceived. That would leave Jon far too much older than Robb for it to be believable that Jon is younger. You simply can't do that with babies when they are together for a sustained time, and we have a vision of Ned before the heart tree in Winterfell praying to let them grow up as brothers, so they would be together a lot from the start, regardless of Cat's distaste for Jon.

I think its a bit silly to think Ned would leave Winterfell after calling his banners to go back to White Harbor for some casual fuck-time, then come back to Winterfell. 

Ever mind that Ned never ever thinks of Ashara, or has any memories of time with her or a love nest at White Harbor. 

The early stage of the rebellion is complex and uncertain. It is clear that a lot happened in a short time. Its very likely that a lot of the 'early' stuff is with much smaller forces before the full levies have been raised.
The best estimates that I've seen place BotBells 3-6 months into the war - there is a lot for Robert in particular to do, but he clearly does those things in a great rush - he's famous for it in fact - and it costs him. And Ned is clearly down in the Rverlands in time for that. But then there is a big pause before the BotT. IMO thats because a several factors working together. i) the rebels don't have all their forces yet (raising training and marching the full levies to the riverlands takes time, but the first small, mostly mounted and mostly semi professional forces can do things much faster). ii) they still have to take the time to secure their logistics (many lords, even in the Vale, the North and the Stormlands held for the royalists and needed to be won over or defeated). iii) the royalists still have enough forces to defend KL so there is no 'winning' move for the rebels. iv) there is diplomacy going on, with Tywin uncommitted and the Iron Islands an unknown.
If you have Ned moving faster, starting part way through the Mountains of the Moon already, leaving Winterfell almost as soon as he gets there with just the first men he has (he can send word to call the banners before he leaves Jon Arryn) and picking more men on the way, with another leader to bring the rest in a month or two's time, then you get a timeline that fits everything together and has people acting with the appropriate urgency of the early period.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

- Battle of the Trident 130 days later

We don't know how long is between BotBs and BotTrident.

On 7/18/2020 at 5:50 AM, Bloodraven’s Spider said:

- Dany is conceived prior to the sack of Kings Landing
-Sack of KL about 15 days later
- Jon is born (within a month of Dany's conception)
 

Placing the BotBells and Robb's conception within a couple of weeks of it around 4-6 months or so into the rebellion fits well with Jon's being born about 0.5-1.5 months after the Sack. The two infants are then close enough in age that Ned can plausibly just treat Robb as the elder and Jon as his bastard conceived after he married Cat. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, corbon said:

No he doesn't. 

This part he does say several times.

Thats not true.
Ned forbade asking about Jon.
He asked where Cat heard Ashara's name, so that he could shut down rumours about Jon.
Cat noted that Ashara's name was never heard again, but neither were other rumours about Jon's origins. Ashara's name not being heard was only a byproduct of that.

You are falling into the trap of accepting Cat's POV bias as the fact, instead of listening to what she actually remembered. 
Cat started the conversation thinking Ashara was the mother and although Ned explicitly reacted to something different Cat didn't notice and ended the conversation still concentrating on Ashara. 
Follow Ned's words though, not Cat's interpretation of them.

There are two (more really) main possibilities here.
i) Brandon asked Ashara to dance with Ned because Ned wanted it
ii) Brandon asked Ashara to dance with Ned because Brandon saw that quiet wolf Ned was missing out on the party.
Note the underlined. Ned was shy. Not just shy of Ashara in particular, but too shy to even leave his bench.

Given that there are no thoughts of Ashara in Ned's head, that points us at ii) rather than i).
And that is before we have Barristan's thoughts about Ned, about Ashara and her disgrace and looking to Stark, about Mud men vs Fire men.
Then add on top of that Brandon's attitude to deflowering noblewomen, his inability to follow through after such an act with Ashara, and compare with Ned's attitudes then and now (below), and his freedom compared to Brandon.

Thats supposition on your part.

Thats not Ned's attitude, now or then.

Ned was never a player. Even though he hung out with one and must have had ample opportunity. 

No, it isn't.
Ned was in the Vale (Aerie or Gates of the Moon most like) when Aerys sent his demand for Ned and Robert's heads to Jon Arryn. From the vale he had to travel north through the mountains of the moon and parts of the Vale in order to get home to Winterfell.
There is no hint or indication that Ned went south after the Tourney at Harrenhal.

I agree thats likely (or to KL), but its not known.

I believe this is likely true, but we don't know it for sure. 
She was disgraced at Harrenhal, and looked to Stark. Later she supposedly gave birth to a stillborn baby.
The facts point to her getting pregnant at Harrenhal, which would lead to her almost certain dismissal several months later when it started to show. But we don't know anything for sure.

There is no indication Ned was anywhere near Starfall before the rebellion, and such an idea doesn't fit well with anything we know.

There no indication Ned and Ashara were together at all after Harrenhal. A year could barely be squeezed in if you fit everything else to its maximum range to suit, but its likely only around 7-10 months between Harrenhal and the Rebellion starting.
The best indications for the timing of Harrenhal is late 281, though its possible it could be closer to the middle of the year. This is from the WoIaF and commentary about the 2 month long false spring and winter returning with a vengeance at the end of the year.

Jon's name day (his official one, which may not be the same as his real one) can be placed around early August. Robb is officially older, so his name day must be in late July, or early August at the latest.
Robb was born in Riverrun in 283 July-ish), which places his conception in 282 (Oct-Nov-ish). Thats several months into the rebellion already (a lot of movements and battles happen before Ned and Cat wed and Robb is conceived), so the rebellion started in mid 282, likely between April and July.
Rhaegar left in Jan 282 on his 'journey' which 'ultimately' led him back to the Riverlands and Lyanna's 'abduction'. So there is some unknown amount of time (weeks, or months, probably several months) where he travels through other regions (Summerhall is a strong possibility) before Lyanna is abducted, then there is time needed after her abduction for news to get out, Brandon to ride to KL, the fathers to be summoned to KL and arrive, the trials and executions before Aerys sends word to Jon Arryn to send Ned and Robert's heads and the rebellion can begin.
 

Yes, this is likely early 282. It needs to be after Brandon's name day, as he was born in 262 and 20 at the time of the duel, but it also has to be before Lyanna's abduction (or at least before news of it reaches anyone).

No, he was not arrested and burnt (at least, not 'just like that". He was to be given a trial to answer for his son's crimes, which he had freely come to do, and he chose trial by combat. Aerys cheated the trial of course...

Right. But take note of the best estimates of each.
Tourney - Oct-Nov 281, could be July-Dec 281
Abduction - Feb-April 282, arguably could be January or May, but thats really stretching other things.
Rebellion - May-July 282 to May-July 283. Could maybe squeeze a month or so either way.

Ned and Robert were with Jon, likely at the Eyrie or the Gates of the Moon when the demand comes and the decision is made to rebel. Ned has to make his way north through the Mountains of the Moon and the Fingers and get a ship to the Stepstones and on to White Harbor to get back to Winterfell. He likely chose that difficult route because there are fewer significant Seats along it and they would have been uncertain who would join them and who would hold for the King. He wouldn't want to risk being taken captive on the way through the vale and being delvered to Aerys instead of getting to Winterfell
Robert and Jon went to Gulltown (the quickest way to get Robert home). Gulltown declared for the King and they had to storm it, the opening 'battle' of the war (probably a rather small scale, a few hundred or a few thousand men at most).

This is nothing more than a local rumor putting together 2+2 and getting 381.
We know from Robert that Ned wasn't the type to do that. We also have a complete lack on connections inside Ned's head for that.
We know that Robb is 'known' by all to be older than Jon, and they were together young - Jon was already at Winterfell by the time Cat and Robb arrived and Robb was around 3 months old (Cat and Ned were apart for the first year of their marriage). For Jon to be the Fisherman's daughter's child - Ashara or not - he'd be at least 3 months older than Robb and its nearly impossible to disguise a 6 month old as younger than a 3 month old when the two are together for a sustained time. There are too many significant cognitive development milestones that are too consistent, and neither Jon nor Robb are cognitively impaired.

No, Robb is officially older than Jon, everyone knows it. Ned tells Robert that he dishonoured Cat, which means he fucked someone else after he married her. Cat thinks that Ned was welcome to the solace of another woman while away from her at war and she could easily forgive even him getting a bastard if only Jon was not kept in her face every day. Cat would also be substantially more freaked by Jon's presence and his threat to her children's future if Jon was the elder.

Jon may actually be slightly older. But officially he is definitely younger. They are close enough in age that infant Robb can pass as older than infant Jon when they are together.

No, it doesn't. Its likely within a month or so of the end of the war, which ends in mid 283. Jon, name day in August, noted from events within the books (see the best timeline details available here: 

fits perfectly.

 

This is pure fan fiction. There is no evidence for any of it, just suppositions, many based on errors and false conclusions.

Note several things.
1. Ned Dayne wasn't born when any of this happened. He's merely repeating what he's been told.
2. His source for information about Ned Stark and Ashara Dayne being in love is his aunt Allyria.
3. His Aunt Allyria has been betrothed for over 6 years to Beric Dondarrion, who is a ruling lord in his early 20s. This indicates that Allyria is almost certainly very young also - if she were alive and old enough to understand relationships when Ned and Ashara were supposedly a thing then she'd be in her mid-late 20s at least now, if not closing on 30. Virtually an old maid in their society, to be unmarried so late with a perfect groom already hooked up and the families still in good standing with each other. Thus she is almost certainly still (during AGoT) under-aged for a marriage, putting her as not yet born or a swaddling infant when Ashara 'died' some 15 years before.

There is a theory (which I like, but which lacks evidence) that Allyria Dayne is in fact Ashara's not-stillborn daughter (probably Brandon's), taken in by the mother in order to have a better life than a bastard would.

Further, note the deeper meaning of what Ned Dayne takes as 'truth' unquestioned. 
Ned and Ashara were in love, but Wylla is the mother of Ned's bastard. 
So according to Ned Dayne, Ned Stark was in love with Ashara, but fucking Wylla on the side?
If you don't know Ned Stark, fine. But we do, we've been inside his head, we've heard his closest friend grumble about him being too strait-laced even as a boy. Ned Dayne's picture does not fit Ned Stark.

Note that Harwin doubts its true.

Think about what Ned actually did. And what that means to House Dayne.

He returned Dawn.
Their 10,000 year old house sword. Absolutely unique. Worth more than 100 Valyrian swords. The thing that means more to them than any object does to any other House. It is their founding story, is their house symbol. Its their House seat location. They build their house history and honour around it, with the title "Sword of the Morning" and its use only going to their most special recipients - not the ruling lords even.

Ned Stark won it in combat.

He went out of his way to give it back to them. Because he thought that was right.
Contrast that to what Tywin did to Ice...

House Dayne would no longer be House Dayne, if not for Ned Stark.

Its what they believe (or Allyria at least). That doesn't make it true. We know its not true - no way super-honourable, never the boy you were, 'that one time', Ned Stark was fucking the help on the side while in love with the Star Maiden.

There is a benefit to the story though.
Ashara Dayne was disgraced from court, supposedly birthed a bastard out of wedlock, and supposedly took her own life. Its a sordid, miserable little story.
This story, from young Allyria, turns Ashara into a tragic romantic in a young girl's eyes. Thats the benefit.

Right. So Arya, indisputedly the child of Ned and Cat, looks like Ned. Cat and Ned's other children look like Tully's. Just as we see everywhere else in ASoIAF (except the super-Baratheon Genes, and to a less proven extent the super-Lannister genes), children generally get the 'look' of one parent or other.

Lets set aside that there is no evidence Ashara was ever there.
Why would Ned leave her there? 

That was already set up. Brandon/Cat was a political marriage, not a love match. Ned/Cat merely continued that - the alliance being needed more than ever. And it was already 'a thing' when Littlefinger learned of Brandon's death and immediately wrote to Cat again, even though Ned and Cat still hadn't met.

Lysa-Jon was a last minute addition, yes. Hoster saw an opportunity to squeeze old Jon with a proven fertile young wife after he lost his backup heir (he'd already lost his nephew and heir who was one of Brandon's companions). Cat and Ned's wedding had already been set up though.

Some do, some don't. Marriages in a sept are valid though. There's way too much evidence proving that and none against. 

There is no evidence that they only accept these marriages.
They prefer them, naturally, but if they didn't accept them they couldn't have accepted the bastard Robb as their King.

No, just Cat (and himself).

Thats because after marrying her he supposedly went off and fucked someone else to get a bastard. Dishonor to him and dishonor to Cat. Family is never mentioned.

Well, all we know is that he went straight from KL to Storms End where he accepted the surrender of the Tyrells, and then he turns up with a small band of close friends at ToJ.
We don't know he was searching for Lyanna then or earlier.
What seems likely is that he learned something that sent him to the ToJ to find her.

Not likely. This is not hollywood, where super-men kill many nameless drones. Ned and most of his friends were veteran fighters and even without Howland Reed outnumbered the Kingsguard 2-1.
And the KG couldn't just hole up in defence. If Ned and his men don't attack, the numbers can only get worse for the KG, many many many times worse. Their only hope at that stage is a swift victory and try to disappear again before more rebels find them.

They would have seen Ned and his men coming for some time. But they couldn't leave with Lyanna sick inside.

We suspect much of this is true, or near true, but its not certain.

Thats pure fanfic, unknown. 
Rhaegar's first child, Rhaenys, looked like her dornish mother. His second child, Aegon, had the Targaryen look. A third child could look like the mother or the father.

There is no 'safe to assume' here. 
Varys has a cogent explanation for how he got baby Aegon out alive and the child murdered wasn't Aegon. It fits with all the known facts. It may or may not be true, but there is no safe assumption either way here.

Tyrion is bad at estimating ages. 

He also estimate's Lemore's age as 'past 40', yet Ashara should be in her late 30s. 
 

While that is not entire untrue, its also not fully true. The ToJ dream is an old dream, a familiar one, one that he knows already and references (gives it a title) as it opens, before we even see the first scene playing.
Its not just a poppy induced dream, though its possible some poppy effects muddle into it (vis a vis some of the weirder effects)

Again, thats not exactly accurate.
https://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Entry/Concerning_the_Tower_of_Joy

The context is that a question was asked which gave away one of GRRM's secrets.
What George said is that Ned's account was in the context of a dream (true)... and a fever dream at that (true, but deceptive because its an old non-fever dream first)... and that our dreams are not always literal (also true, and does not directly refer to this dream necessarily).

All he really said was that if you take everything literally in this dream, you might be wrong. Not will be, might be.

I don't imagine that there really was a storm of rose petals across a blood streaked sky for example, or that Ned's companions were really wraiths.

Tyroshi blue is bright.
Lyanna's blue is pale, winter roses.
A number of women are associate with blue in ASoIaF, most notably Brienne of Tarth off the top of my head.

Or much more simply and much better fitting all the known facts (and characters, Ned simply takes Jon from ToJ and rides to Starfall with him and Wylla. Starfall believe Wylla is the mother because Ned rode in with the two of them together, word gets back to Robert who also believes this (and casually references her to Ned, who supplies him a name).

He actually did that. Starfall has Dawn.

Cersei doesn't know anything really, which is obvious by her throwing random varied accusations. She knows what's not been hidden. Ned Stark went south after the war, turned up at Starfall and came away from there with a bastard. Everything else is just random sallies.

Why would Ned care about Aegon?

Ashara was friends with Elia. 
Why does Ned tell us that "some secrets are to dangerous to share even with those you love"?
Why does Ned keep going back to Lyanna with pain, but not Ashara?

Rumour tells us she threw herself from the Palestone Tower into the sea. And no body was found. History is silent.

Not even rumour tells us that.
Barristan 'knows' she committed suicide, and is makes some guesses to himself as to why. He doesn't have any conclusion, or any knowledge of the truth and can;t even pick one guess as better than another.
Allyria Dayne's story is barely any better, clearly factually wrong in part, and clearly rather remote from the actual events.

Again, there is no evidence for this. None that she was in White Harbour, none that she was in WInterfell, none that they were married and even the idea that they were in love is a clearly flawed rumour from people who weren't actually around them and are making blind guesses.

Maybe. We have too little information to narrow this down. You appear to have not realised that he starts already part way through the mountains. 
I'd estimate less.

Your calcs here are all over the place. Boats go 20 miles/day, then 100 m/d, then 60m/d, marches are 20 m/d (I'm assuiming 16650 should drop 1 6),  35m/d, 20-28 m/d.
GRRM says its not wise to do this - he doesn't and he may have some things slightly wrong. That said, done well, it helps us figure stuff out.

You've also got around 7.5 months after the start of the Rebellion for Robb to be conceived. That would leave Jon far too much older than Robb for it to be believable that Jon is younger. You simply can't do that with babies when they are together for a sustained time, and we have a vision of Ned before the heart tree in Winterfell praying to let them grow up as brothers, so they would be together a lot from the start, regardless of Cat's distaste for Jon.

I think its a bit silly to think Ned would leave Winterfell after calling his banners to go back to White Harbor for some casual fuck-time, then come back to Winterfell. 

Ever mind that Ned never ever thinks of Ashara, or has any memories of time with her or a love nest at White Harbor. 

The early stage of the rebellion is complex and uncertain. It is clear that a lot happened in a short time. Its very likely that a lot of the 'early' stuff is with much smaller forces before the full levies have been raised.
The best estimates that I've seen place BotBells 3-6 months into the war - there is a lot for Robert in particular to do, but he clearly does those things in a great rush - he's famous for it in fact - and it costs him. And Ned is clearly down in the Rverlands in time for that. But then there is a big pause before the BotT. IMO thats because a several factors working together. i) the rebels don't have all their forces yet (raising training and marching the full levies to the riverlands takes time, but the first small, mostly mounted and mostly semi professional forces can do things much faster). ii) they still have to take the time to secure their logistics (many lords, even in the Vale, the North and the Stormlands held for the royalists and needed to be won over or defeated). iii) the royalists still have enough forces to defend KL so there is no 'winning' move for the rebels. iv) there is diplomacy going on, with Tywin uncommitted and the Iron Islands an unknown.
If you have Ned moving faster, starting part way through the Mountains of the Moon already, leaving Winterfell almost as soon as he gets there with just the first men he has (he can send word to call the banners before he leaves Jon Arryn) and picking more men on the way, with another leader to bring the rest in a month or two's time, then you get a timeline that fits everything together and has people acting with the appropriate urgency of the early period.

We don't know how long is between BotBs and BotTrident.

Placing the BotBells and Robb's conception within a couple of weeks of it around 4-6 months or so into the rebellion fits well with Jon's being born about 0.5-1.5 months after the Sack. The two infants are then close enough in age that Ned can plausibly just treat Robb as the elder and Jon as his bastard conceived after he married Cat. 

I agree with your post here. As it says in the Book of Proverbs in the Bible,  "The one who states his case first seems right, until the other comes and examines him." Proverbs 18:17

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

@corbon you are nitpicking to the highest degree.

Some of it was, not all. I could have nitpicked a lot more too. You set up your write up, or parts of it at least, as a narrative flow. But you based your narratives on incorrect facts, or assumptions that didn't follow. The smaller bits and pieces were aimed at disrupting the false narrative because narratives 'feel' more convincing for people who don't actually know the facts. 

You also had some absolute howlers in there.
Ned "may as well get his dick wet", when we have clear evidence that Ned doesn't, and didn't, think that way? Making Jon ('officially')  older than Robb when its completely clear from Ned's words that he infers Jon was conceived after Robb? ToJ pushed into the wrong year in order to support your hypothesis?

You might consider it a compliment. Your write-up was well smoothly enough put together that some nitpicking was necessary to expose the empty core.

4 hours ago, Bloodraven's Spider said:

As i said we still need more evidence to come to firm conclusions. You've made some very strong points but I still stand by thinking. Till we get more info we can't say for certain

I agree with many of your suppositions actually (but some are clearly wrong!) and agree that we can't say for certain about everything. Or even very much.
But your whole hypothesis about Ned and Ashara being married and Jon being Ned's only legit kid was built from badly flawed foundations and rests critically upon ideas with literally zero evidence (that Ashara and Ned were married, or even that Ashara and Ned were ever together between Harrenhal and his returning Dawn, for example).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
  • 1 month later...
On 7/6/2020 at 5:09 PM, Brother Seamus said:

agreed. this carries little weight, other than, again, just being part of the overall Blackfyre rebellion story, which, one can speculate, may/should/must have some importance to the main story to justify the time and effort and page count that have been devoted to it.

But the Blackfyre backstory does not have to be Aegon's backstory to be important to the main story!

That's because the Blackfyre story is important to explain the Golden Company's existence. It describes the background of Aegon's army, not necessarily Aegon himself. It explains why Aegon could suddenly get an army when needed, why said army exists at the right time and in the right place and with a motivation to conquer Westeros. Very convenient if you think about it. Hard to believe if it came out of nowhere. But the Blackfyre story explains it.

Of course it could also explain Aegon's background. But even if not then the Blackfyre story would have to be there. Page count, time and effort and all.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 months later...
On 6/29/2020 at 8:27 AM, LadyBlackwater said:

So , we learn that Varys allegedly smuggled real Aegon out and replaced him with a peasant boy. Allegedly. If this “Aegon” is in fact actually just a Blackfyre bastard, do you think the child himself knows? Or is he as everyone around him convinced he is the real deal?

I know the OP posted this long ago, but here's my 2 cents

-- Yes, the real Baby Aegon really was smuggled to safety.

-- No, Young Griff is not that real Aegon.  Yes, he is a Blackfyre descendant, but no he is not a bastard.   His parents and grandparents were married.  Hence, his last name (if he knew it) would not be "Blackfyre".  It would probably that of some noble lord who married a mystery woman from Essos.  Such as Martell.

-- No, Young Griff does not know he is not really Aegon.  Similarly, his counterpart, the real Aegon, does not know that he is Aegon.  He probably thinks he is the son of Doran Martell and his mystery wife from Essos.

Which would make the real Aegon and the fake Aegon first cousins.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...