US Politics: Bounties from a Jericho Walk

[Martell Spy]

26 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

And in other news, if you are a foreign student who was supposed to attend university in the US this fall and your university has gone on line,  by more than 50% iirc, your visa is revoked.

Hah, was about to post that. JFC. I'm not sure if this policy is meant to demonstrate how hateful the administration is or to purposely spread the coronavirus. 

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

I would at least hope that, given what happened with Epstein, they'll have her on constant suicide watch to at least preclude that possibility.

I read a headline, but didn't open the article, that said she wants to dish the dirt for a sweet deal. So actual suicide does not seem to be on her radar. "Suicide" on the other hand is a totally different matter.

5 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

Lol, Trump is not happy with the concept of the Cleveland Indians and the Washington Redskins changing their names "to be politically correct".

He even invokes the name of Elizabeth Warren! 

"Indians, like Elizabeth Warren, must be very angry right now!"

Cleveland could either change its name or change the image to one of an actual Indian, I suppose. Though why they would brand themselves with the image of a South Asian person would be a bit befuddling as there is little real connection to the sport in question, so a name change would probably be the better move.

There's really no redemption for Redskins aside from erasing it.

But that's pretty tame. We had a geographic feature named N***** point, and there were more than a handful of people stridently objecting to changing that name. There is simply no reforming some people.

[Raja]

This is going to be a big mess, but immigration policy that is put out without it being thought through is the MO for this administration

 

[Fragile Bird]

Breaking news.

The mayor of Atlanta and her husband have both tested positive for COVID-19.

eta: and 1 of her children. 1 tested negative and 2 more need to be tested. Unfortunately, Mayor Bottoms' mom just happened to have been visiting her and she needs to be tested now as well. Her husband, she says, "has been sleeping since Thursday".

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I read a headline, but didn't open the article, that said she wants to dish the dirt for a sweet deal. So actual suicide does not seem to be on her radar. "Suicide" on the other hand is a totally different matter.

Cleveland could either change its name or change the image to one of an actual Indian, I suppose. Though why they would brand themselves with the image of a South Asian person would be a bit befuddling as there is little real connection to the sport in question, so a name change would probably be the better move.

There's really no redemption for Redskins aside from erasing it.

But that's pretty tame. We had a geographic feature named N***** point, and there were more than a handful of people stridently objecting to changing that name. There is simply no reforming some people.

Cleveland actually did change the logo, but that didn't stop fans from wearing the old gear, and I doubt the team did much to enforce removing it. 

[Martell Spy]

Seattle council passes landmark big business tax proposal

https://mynorthwest.com/2001560/seattle-council-big-business-tax-vote/

Quote

 

With a veto-proof 7-2 majority, Seattle City Council approved a bill Monday taxing the city’s biggest businesses.

The proposal, dubbed “JumpStart Seattle” and sponsored by Councilmember Teresa Mosqueda, was first unveiled in mid-June. It will raise over $200 million a year by levying a tax on corporations with payrolls over $7 million. Qualifying businesses will be taxed 0.7% for every employee making over $150,000, and 1.4% for employees making over $500,000.

“We’re in the midst of a public health crisis, and JumpStart is part of the remedy,” Mosqueda said Monday. “… This is a huge win. We together are making history.”

 

 

[Altherion]

7 minutes ago, Martell Spy said:

Seattle council passes landmark big business tax proposal

https://mynorthwest.com/2001560/seattle-council-big-business-tax-vote/

In the absence of a federal bailout (which does not appear to be forthcoming), cities with massive budgets pretty much have to do something like this because these large businesses are the only ones left with any spare cash that can be taken. It should work in the short term, but given that most of the businesses this applies to have functioned perfectly fine with nearly all of their employees working from home, it's not obvious that the medium to long term outcome will be one these cities want. Seattle needs Amazon a whole lot more than Amazon needs Seattle.

[Martell Spy]

1 minute ago, Altherion said:

In the absence of a federal bailout (which does not appear to be forthcoming), cities with massive budgets pretty much have to do something like this because these large businesses are the only ones left with any spare cash that can be taken. It should work in the short term, but given that most of the businesses this applies to have functioned perfectly fine with nearly all of their employees working from home, it's not obvious that the medium to long term outcome will be one these cities want. Seattle needs Amazon a whole lot more than Amazon needs Seattle.

Seattle actually has more than a single business in its economy.

[Kalbear]

Amazon needs Seattle far more than the other way around. Amazon works because they can hire and burn out a ton of techies in the area who use their zon experience and money elsewhere in the area. The average zon worker lasts two years total. Amazons entire system doesnt work if they cant draw on that massive pool of tech workers, and the only other place to get that kind of pool is silicon valley, and amazon would not compete well there. 

@Altherion really doesnt have a clue what hes talking about. 

[Altherion]

1 hour ago, Kalbear said:

Amazon needs Seattle far more than the other way around. Amazon works because they can hire and burn out a ton of techies in the area who use their zon experience and money elsewhere in the area. The average zon worker lasts two years total. Amazons entire system doesnt work if they cant draw on that massive pool of tech workers, and the only other place to get that kind of pool is silicon valley, and amazon would not compete well there. 

@Altherion really doesnt have a clue what hes talking about. 

That was the pre-pandemic line of reasoning. As has been clearly demonstrated, tech workers are perfectly capable of working from home for extended periods of time. Eventually, it will occur to the large companies that they have an easy way to dramatically expand their pool and cut out the local parasites at the same time.

[Kalbear]

32 minutes ago, Altherion said:

That was the pre-pandemic line of reasoning. As has been clearly demonstrated, tech workers are perfectly capable of working from home for extended periods of time. Eventually, it will occur to the large companies that they have an easy way to dramatically expand their pool and cut out the local parasites at the same time.

The local parasite in this case is amazon. They're the ones driving people to leave after 2 years, because the work environment absolutely sucks ass at amazon. Amazon needs that pipeline of young naive workers who dont know better. 

Really you should take a timeout. I'm a tech worker who has worked in the Seattle area for 20 years and worked for Amazon in the past. You're a person who thought trump would be a decent choice. 

[Jace, Extat]

1 hour ago, Triskele said:

The latest theory in Trumpworld is something along the lines of that Russiagate was done by Obama to protect Iran and that Biden as nominee is so Obama can return to power.

Damn! Foiled again!

I'll get you next time, Justice League!

[IheartIheartTesla]

Trump's fraction of the vote share and his approval rating are nearly identical (~41%). He still gets high marks on the economy (no idea why, he does nothing except cut regulations). So I think if there isnt a serious rebound in his approval ratings, I dont see how he gets to the mid to high 40s unless there is a great U shaped recovery. The way I see it playing out is him inching back to 43-44% approval, and getting some additional votes from those who disapprove of him but are satisfied with the economy - so the rate of growth of GDP in Q3-Q4, rate of change in unemployment etc. may add a few points.

 

It's still gonna be super tough for him.

[Fragile Bird]

Canada’s prime minister has announced he will not fly to Washington to meet with Trump and the Mexican president to celebrate NAFTA 2 ( I refuse to use the official name which makes it sound like an American government office, or college, or sports league) which is basically a glorified photo op. All non-essential travel to the US is banned and a photo opportunity is not essential travel. Also, social distancing and wearing a mask when meeting people is the official government position in Canada and Trudeau wears a mask. He’s not going to get pulled into Trump’s anti-mask shit show.

[Darryk]

I've been seeing reports that Ghislaine Maxwell has been diagnosed with COVID. Sounds like they're already paving the way for an "unfortunate incident" that occurs before she can give any names.

[Tywin Manderly]

2 minutes ago, Darryk said:

I've been seeing reports that Ghislaine Maxwell has been diagnosed with COVID. Sounds like they're already paving the way for an "unfortunate incident" that occurs before she can give any names.

Not to mention dishing out her secret stash of sex tapes featuring numerous movers and shakers which she is said to have squirelled away.

Ghislaine is a dead woman walking.

 

[Ran]

1 hour ago, Darryk said:

I've been seeing reports that Ghislaine Maxwell has been diagnosed with COVID. Sounds like they're already paving the way for an "unfortunate incident" that occurs before she can give any names.

Find better sources of news, or become less credulous about the ones you use. This is untrue.

[S John]

1 hour ago, Tywin Manderly said:

Not to mention dishing out her secret stash of sex tapes featuring numerous movers and shakers which she is said to have squirelled away.

Ghislaine is a dead woman walking.

 

Having made it this long without being captured, I assume she’s no dummy.  If I were her I’d have arranged some mechanism for that info to get into the press in the event of my untimely demise. She’s had lots of time, I’d personally be surprised if we don’t hear what dirt she has one way or another.

[Maithanet]

2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

Trump's fraction of the vote share and his approval rating are nearly identical (~41%). He still gets high marks on the economy (no idea why, he does nothing except cut regulations). So I think if there isnt a serious rebound in his approval ratings, I dont see how he gets to the mid to high 40s unless there is a great U shaped recovery. The way I see it playing out is him inching back to 43-44% approval, and getting some additional votes from those who disapprove of him but are satisfied with the economy - so the rate of growth of GDP in Q3-Q4, rate of change in unemployment etc. may add a few points.

Don't know if you saw the 538 article about "economy" voters.  The TLDR is that right now the voters who say the economy is the most important issue are disproportionately white, wealthier and Republican.  Thus Trump's strong polling with "economy" voters is somewhat of a self-fulfilling prophecy.  A LOT of Trump voters say they are voting for Trump because of the economy (whether you believe them is another thing).  

Trump's approval in the 2018 midterm exit polls was about 2 points higher than his average on 538.  Nonetheless, that was still like a 45/55 split against Trump, which is fairly terrible.  I still think the most likely thing is some reversion to the mean with of Trump at ~ 42-43% approval as the election gets closer.  But if the 2018 example is anything to go on, 43% approval is likely setting up a loss by ~7-8 points.  Not a historic wipeout, but enough that Biden would win all 6 swing states, and possibly GA if Democrats are working hard there.  

[Ser Reptitious]

"Extra History" did an interesting 9-minute episode on the 1921 riots that resulted in the complete destruction of Greenwood, OK (a.k.a. "Black Wall Street"). Sad, but very informative for those (such as me) who didn't really know much about it beforehand: