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US Politics: Bounties from a Jericho Walk


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20 minutes ago, BigFatCoward said:

Do you mean 200,000 above where they are now, or 200,000 in total.  Right now I imagine they would love to only have 200,000 total by November. 

There is a modeler that the WH has used from the beginning, who regularly updates his models depending on what various states are doing. He’s the one who predicted the deaths in the millions figure if nothing was done that Trump likes to quote to show what a fantastic president he is. He predicted 135,000 deaths by some time in July a couple of months ago, which was a reduction from 165,000, iirc, because of protective measures being taken. Just this week he revised his model to 200,000 by November 1, based on the situation today.

He’s regularly interviewed on CNN and always points out the numbers can be changed by actions states take.

My question was more or less rhetorical. I certainly think 130,000 deaths has impacted voters, and if the death count rises to 200,000 it will have greater impact. Trump, of course, has said things like “the Democrats want people to die because they hate me and they hate all the good things I’ve done, that’s why the fake news lies!” At this very moment I’m listening to Larry Kudlow explain there are lots of hospital beds and the death rate is falling, and what is going on is just ‘flashpoints”.  I’m not sure how many people still buy that line.

’Shutting down will do more harm than good, that solution is worse than the disease’ says Larry.

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6 minutes ago, Fez said:

Yeah it's optimistic, but that's the point. Everyone is so pessimistic all the time, saying the race is bound to tighten. And that's certainly possible, but there just as easily be a further widening in the race, or a polling error in Biden's favor. And what I laid out is what I see as the best possible case.

On polling, in early June there was a Des Moines Register poll finding Greenfield +3 over Ernst. It's just one poll of course, but in a national environment of Biden +8 or +9, to say nothing of +13 or +14, that's a winnable race.

There hasn't been public South Carolina, but Harrison raised $14 million last quarter. That's enough to make Graham work for it. And Trump won SC by +14 in 2016. If he only wins by 2 or 3 this time, and that's the best case environment I'm talking about, that becomes winnable.

The Georgia run-offs do complicate things there, but I take the opposite view. I think if control of the senate is on the line there's no way that Democrats win. But if they aren't, there's a better chance of Democrats sneaking through. And also, if Biden wins the states by 3 or 4, Ossoff could win outright.

I see zero chance of McConnell losing though. That one's just not happening. It's Kentucky.

1.  I agree that the optimistic assessment is at least as likely as the pessimistic one.  I just prefer to remain pessimistic-minded so as not to have my heart broken. 

2. Agree re IA.  

3. Agree re Harrison's fundraising haul.  I think Lindsay's silver tongue and SC's deep red hue will get him out of this jam.  I was SC-curious so I asked @SerScott as our SC resident and expert who also is pessimistic. But we'll see. 

4.  GA: that's an interesting thought.  As with so much it depends on turnout.  If I were Biden I would have Barack and Michelle campaign for me in GA like crazy. 

5.  I agree that the probabilities are extremely low but not because Kentucky is ruby-red.  It's because McGrath has had her stumbles and not run from the middle.  But a guy can always dream right?

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Trump wins = we're fucked, Republicans hold the Senate, possibly even flip the house, but regardless we're fucked.

Biden wins by less than 5 points nationally = probably a 49/51 Senate with Dems picking up AZ+CO + one of NC/ME.  48 or 50 also a possibility.

Biden wins by 5-7 points = probably a 51/49 senate with Dems taking all four competitive races + one of IA/MT.  50 or 52 also a possibility.

Biden wins by 7-9 points = probably 52/48, although now we're getting into more unfamiliar territory where longshots could be coming through.  There's GA (open), GA, SC, TX, KY, AK, AL, KS which all "could" break right if the Dems are riding a wave and they have a good matchup.  

Biden wins by 10 (remember, this is where the polls are now) = Assume Biden wins GA, OH, TX and IA in this case, in which case you should expect anywhere from 53-55 senators.  

Biden wins by 11-14.  Uncharted waters in terms of presidential elections, we haven't seen a blowout like this since 1984.  I'd guess we're looking at 55-57 Senators, although there is definitely the question of whether Senate Republicans start running significantly better than Trump at some point.  Who knows if that will happen, but if it does, it would limit the damage.

Biden wins by 15-18.  56-59 Senators.  Even still we aren't at veto-proof majority, but it's getting close.  FYI if Biden wins by 16 points, he's competitive/winning states like KS, AK, MT, IN, SC. 

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What happens if all polling indicates Biden up 10+ overall come election day, he blows out the popular vote by minimum Hillary numbers, but things are funky enough that Trump gets the electoral college by a minimum number...?  No one seems to want to account for the Russians likely putting their fingers on some scales...?

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2 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

What happens if all polling indicates Biden up 10+ overall come election day, he blows out the popular vote by minimum Hillary numbers, but things are funky enough that Trump gets the electoral college by a minimum number...?  No one seems to want to account for the Russians likely putting their fingers on some scales...?

When you say the Russians helping Trump, do you mean what they did last time with email leaks and social media propaganda?  Or hacking and actually changing vote totals?  The Russians will definitely do the propaganda part (indeed, they're already doing it, but I'm sure it'll scale up).  But a more aggressive attempt at changing vote totals would be seen as an act of war by a President Biden, so the Russians had better be damn sure they get their man.  And Trump is looking like a losing horse, so I'm not sure they want to go to the mattresses for him.  

I'm not really sure what you're asking.  Is it possible that some combination of COVID/voter suppression leading to a big polling miss in favor of Republicans + the Electoral College being Trump favorable + Russian interference = Trump win in spite of being down 8-10 points in November?  Yes, it is possible.  I don't think that's likely, but we can't rule it out.  

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3 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

When you say the Russians helping Trump, do you mean what they did last time with email leaks and social media propaganda?  Or hacking and actually changing vote totals?  The Russians will definitely do the propaganda part (indeed, they're already doing it, but I'm sure it'll scale up).  But a more aggressive attempt at changing vote totals would be seen as an act of war by a President Biden, so the Russians had better be damn sure they get their man.  And Trump is looking like a losing horse, so I'm not sure they want to go to the mattresses for him.  

I'm not really sure what you're asking.  Is it possible that some combination of COVID/voter suppression leading to a big polling miss in favor of Republicans + the Electoral College being Trump favorable + Russian interference = Trump win in spite of being down 8-10 points in November?  Yes, it is possible.  I don't think that's likely, but we can't rule it out.  

I will just add to this that I think multiple states (not just Russia) will engage in electoral interference in 2020.  They've all seen Russia do it and escape scot free.  I would put KSA, Turkey in this category.   

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I too expect subversion of the vote. The benefits of a Trump presidency are too great not to try at all. And even the Russians got caught red handed 45% of America will explain that they deserve a voice in our election, as long as it benefits their man.

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Trump taxes decisions will be coming tomorrow.  Pray to the seven faces of the many-faced god that all the compromises Kagan & Breyer have made with the uber-Catholics on the court creating special rules for religions institutions will buy us an order requiring Trump's financial data to be released to the House Committee. 

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49 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

When you say the Russians helping Trump, do you mean what they did last time with email leaks and social media propaganda?  Or hacking and actually changing vote totals?  The Russians will definitely do the propaganda part (indeed, they're already doing it, but I'm sure it'll scale up).  But a more aggressive attempt at changing vote totals would be seen as an act of war by a President Biden, so the Russians had better be damn sure they get their man.  And Trump is looking like a losing horse, so I'm not sure they want to go to the mattresses for him.  

I'm not really sure what you're asking.  Is it possible that some combination of COVID/voter suppression leading to a big polling miss in favor of Republicans + the Electoral College being Trump favorable + Russian interference = Trump win in spite of being down 8-10 points in November?  Yes, it is possible.  I don't think that's likely, but we can't rule it out.  

I'm speaking of all things being equal, in a general sense.  That despite the suppression, despite the pandemic, everything points to Biden winning handily, but despite that, there is some sort of shenanigans, by the Russians most likely, tips things how they want.  

I suppose this isn't coming across clearly,  but it's some sort of manifestation of my electoral fears...

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53 minutes ago, Gaston de Foix said:

Trump taxes decisions will be coming tomorrow.  Pray to the seven faces of the many-faced god that all the compromises Kagan & Breyer have made with the uber-Catholics on the court creating special rules for religions institutions will buy us an order requiring Trump's financial data to be released to the House Committee. 

Yeah the big old SC Fuck You to women.  So I'm assuming that companies run by Jehovah's Witnesses don't need to cover blood transfusions, and Christian Scientist owned companies don't have to... cover anything?

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13 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I'm speaking of all things being equal, in a general sense.  That despite the suppression, despite the pandemic, everything points to Biden winning handily, but despite that, there is some sort of shenanigans, by the Russians most likely, tips things how they want.  

I suppose this isn't coming across clearly,  but it's some sort of manifestation of my electoral fears...

If I could get a guarantee that this election (and the post election transfer of power) will be a "normal" election the way that 00, 04, 08, and 12 were, then that would eliminate more than half of my fears about November.  I feel like the chance of Trump coming back and winning semi-fairly is definitely less likely than Trump somehow remaining in office through electoral interference (foreign/domestic/both) or constitutional crisis.  

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4 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

If I could get a guarantee that this election (and the post election transfer of power) will be a "normal" election the way that 00, 04, 08, and 12 were, then that would eliminate more than half of my fears about November.  I feel like the chance of Trump coming back and winning semi-fairly is definitely less likely than Trump somehow remaining in office through electoral interference (foreign/domestic/both) or constitutional crisis.  

Agreed. I'm not even that concerned about voter interference though; I think too many people are paying too close attention for anything major to happen. My two big worries are: 1) Voter turnout cratering because of the pandemic, 2) Trump refusing to leave office.

And I'm more worried about the first. With the second, if it's a blowout, I think Trump's gone regardless of what he says or claims. If it's a closer race though, I could see too many of our institutions quietly letting things slide. And I worry that too many states won't get called on election night, because of all the absentee ballots to be counted. But Trump will claim victory anyway in his speech, especially if he's up in the election day totals in enough states.

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10 hours ago, Kalbear said:

 But that again assumes standard elections and standard voting patterns. We don't know if people will go out to vote, we don't know how hard it will be to vote, we don't know how bad the country will be via the virus. Hell, Biden of all fuckers might tell everyone 'if you have the choice between exposure and voting, stay home' because he's that kind of asshole. This election at best is going to be tied up in counts and recounts and confusion until inauguration day, and that's assuming most states do vote by mail and we have a vaguely free election. 

Way to steal the take I've been giving for months! 

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7 minutes ago, Fez said:

Agreed. I'm not even that concerned about voter interference though; I think too many people are paying too close attention for anything major to happen. My two big worries are: 1) Voter turnout cratering because of the pandemic, 2) Trump refusing to leave office.

I'm definitely more worried about 2 than 1 on that list.  People have been voting in the primaries, and skipping the primaries is a lot less of a big deal than skipping the general election.  

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I worry that too many states won't get called on election night, because of all the absentee ballots to be counted. But Trump will claim victory anyway in his speech, especially if he's up in the election day totals in enough states.

I'm also very worried about this.  Trump's crazy "vote by mail = voter fraud" push is almost assuredly going to make Democrats more likely to vote by mail (stick it to Trump) and Republicans more likely to vote in person.  This means that it seems quite plausible that Trump could lose Florida by 5 or even 8 points, and still be winning just the election day vote. 

I really think we're going to get a super weird patchwork of results on election night. 

 - Some states that have very little absentee ballots and are not allowing expansions due to COVID (note: none of the swing states are doing this).  In these states we'll probably see evidence that Trump is running worse than 2016, although this is exclusively very red states, and it's possible COVID fears will have a bigger impact than in states that allow mail voting. 

 - Some states will announce and tally their election day/early voting results, but still have a huge number of mail in ballots waiting.  This will almost assuredly show Trump outperforming his polls, possibly significantly so.  

 - Some states will just not announce their results until later.  As agonizing as this would be, it would also probably be the most prudent.  Just have the election, and then announce all results the following Monday.  

I don't know which states will take which approach, but we are virtually certain NOT to get a result from PA, AZ and FL on election night.  So unless Biden is winning Texas or something, we aren't going to know who is really winning.  

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Boy, I’m watching this bizarre Pence news conference explaining why schools have to open in the fall. No mention of the staggering COVID numbers. It’s all about the mental health if the children! And helping lower income workers!

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10 hours ago, Fury Resurrected said:

Didn’t he also get in trouble for not disclosing his HIV status and spreading it? I think that bumps him a few pegs below Martin and Emilio

Didn't he get and his partners get off lucky, by him not spreading it?

Anyway, wrt Emilio, the Mighty Ducks of Anaheim saw the wrongs of their ways years ago, distanced themselves from their troubled Disney past and got renamed to Ducks.

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For once Friedman says something with which I agree:

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/opinion/biden-trump-debate.html?

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I worry about Joe Biden debating Donald Trump. He should do it only under two conditions. Otherwise, he’s giving Trump unfair advantages.

First, Biden should declare that he will take part in a debate only if Trump releases his tax returns for 2016 through 2018. Biden has already done so, and they are on his website. Trump must, too. No more gifting Trump something he can attack while hiding his own questionable finances.

And second, Biden should insist that a real-time fact-checking team approved by both candidates be hired by the nonpartisan Commission on Presidential Debates — and that 10 minutes before the scheduled conclusion of the debate this team report on any misleading statements, phony numbers or outright lies either candidate had uttered. That way no one in that massive television audience can go away easily misled. [....]

 

 

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30 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Boy, I’m watching this bizarre Pence news conference explaining why schools have to open in the fall. No mention of the staggering COVID numbers. It’s all about the mental health if the children! And helping lower income workers!

The last question is the most obvious one: how do you keep kids six feet apart? Classrooms are packed. And have you ever walked down a hallway between classes?

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3 hours ago, Gaston de Foix said:

I will just add to this that I think multiple states (not just Russia) will engage in electoral interference in 2020.  They've all seen Russia do it and escape scot free.  I would put KSA, Turkey in this category.   

Let's not forget Ohio, Florida, and Georgia, among others.  

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