Little Walder was killed by Aenys Frey, not Big Walder.

[TheLastWolf]

We know that LW was not killed on the orders of Manderly or Mance/Abel for sure...people think that BW killed LW, but I beg to differ.

BW's motive

• Goes ahead in line of succession to the Twins
• Reasons for this motive's failure

1. There are simply too many Freys ahead
2. LW was stronger and bigger in size, so no way BW could've overpowered LW and killed him.
3. BW thought that neither of them would never inherit the Twins in ACOK.
4. LW was the cruel one, not BW...so kinslaying with no surety of getting Twins is too far fetched.
5. BW was the smart one, he wasn't that stupid too provoke open quarrel while Stannis was outside.

Aenys's motives

• Knew/suspected that many of the dead Ned's loyal banner men now with Bolton would change sides if battle begun to avenge their liege lord's and his son, their king's murders.
• Knew that the huge host would not survive with fast dwindling supplies in the thick of winter.

1. So I say he killed LW, spread rumors about him being owed silver by a White Harbor knight to cause discord among the Manderly+loyal nothmen and Boltons+Freys so that Roose would send them out to battle with Stannis. He had not allowed anyone outside since his scouts were killed by Mors Crowfood or had deserted.
2. Then he could save his own a*s and escape Stannis and Winter by leaving the North under some pretext.
3. BW being spattered with too much blood may have been interpreted by many as him to be the murderer. I think that Aenys must have got him close to the murder spot immediately after the murder somehow to escape suspicion on himself.

[Sigella]

1 hour ago, TheLastWolf said:

LW was stronger and bigger in size, so no way BW could've overpowered LW and killed him.

You don't need to be able to overpower someone in order to kill them. Arya manages a lot in spite of her stature.

2 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

Then he could save his own a*s and escape Stannis and Winter by leaving the North under some pretext.

Maybe Aenys marching south prove just as tricky as marching does for Stannis though?

 

I don't see the gain for what you propose, Ockhams razor and all. BW is hanging out with Ramsay so that's a decidedly awful influence on top of his crappy Frey-morality, which in unison is bound to manifest its ugliness.

 

That said you could be right, might be GRRM has some nicely woven set of events to be revealed regarding this. But imo a scenario with someone acting puppet master for LW murder, would have more interesting implications if it was Roose, Manderly or anyone other than Aenys pulling the strings.  

[Alyn Oakenfist]

Well it's unclear what happened but it's clear BW had a part given that h is covered with blood despite the body being frozen. My guess is it was Ramsay, knowing it would spark a Frey Manderly conflict and probably lead to the 2 being send to fight Stannis and he needs the Freys out and preferably dead when he kills Roose. In the case of succession the Frey's are the second force behind the Dreadfort men and they clearly would support Walda's brood.

[John Suburbs]

3 hours ago, TheLastWolf said:

We know that LW was not killed on the orders of Manderly or Mance/Abel for sure...people think that BW killed LW, but I beg to differ.

BW's motive

• Goes ahead in line of succession to the Twins
• Reasons for this motive's failure

1. There are simply too many Freys ahead
2. LW was stronger and bigger in size, so no way BW could've overpowered LW and killed him.
3. BW thought that neither of them would never inherit the Twins in ACOK.
4. LW was the cruel one, not BW...so kinslaying with no surety of getting Twins is too far fetched.
5. BW was the smart one, he wasn't that stupid too provoke open quarrel while Stannis was outside.

Aenys's motives

• Knew/suspected that many of the dead Ned's loyal banner men now with Bolton would change sides if battle begun to avenge their liege lord's and his son, their king's murders.
• Knew that the huge host would not survive with fast dwindling supplies in the thick of winter.

1. So I say he killed LW, spread rumors about him being owed silver by a White Harbor knight to cause discord among the Manderly+loyal nothmen and Boltons+Freys so that Roose would send them out to battle with Stannis. He had not allowed anyone outside since his scouts were killed by Mors Crowfood or had deserted.
2. Then he could save his own a*s and escape Stannis and Winter by leaving the North under some pretext.
3. BW being spattered with too much blood may have been interpreted by many as him to be the murderer. I think that Aenys must have got him close to the murder spot immediately after the murder somehow to escape suspicion on himself.

Correct on why BW could not be the murderer, but I think there are some holes with Aenys (Har!).

First, Aenys kills LW and then later brings BW to be spattered by blood? Not possible. The blood would only spray out of the body for a few seconds, so BW would have to have been right there at the time of the murder, with all the blood spattering on him, including enough to cake his gloves, but none on Aenys.

The caked blood on the gloves can only mean that BW was in direct contact with a significant amount of blood, which, to my mind, can only come from digging through blood-soaked snow. So I think it's obvious that BW found the body, dug it out of the bloody snow, spattering blood and snow on his chest, arms and cloak in the process.

Remember, Theon only sees the body "armored in pink frost." The next line is: "The cold outside had frozen his blood." So it is only this pink blood on the outside of the body that Theon says is frozen, and this could easily have happened in the ten minutes or so it took to carry it from the ruined tower to the great hall. There is nothing here that suggests the body is frozen solid. It could very well have been still fresh when BW found it. Indeed, the scent of the blood on his clothes is still strong enough that it "set the horses to screaming."

Secondly, it seems odd that only Aenys would realize the other northern lords are not trustworthy, or that he would not share these concerns with Hosteen. Pretty much everybody is suspicious of one another at this point. Nor is it a secret that their food stores are finite.

Thirdly, if his intent is to cause discord between the factions, wouldn't this be accomplished just as easily by killing a Manderly? He suspects them of murdering his own son, after all, so wouldn't it be more fitting to kill someone close to Wyman? I'm not sure if Wylis is at Winterfell, but there must be a page or squire or someone, the son of a minor lord.

And finally, 

Spoiler

If the leaked chapter is accurate, Aenys didn't sneak off to save his ass. He led the battle against Stannis and was killed.

 

[TheLastWolf]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

My guess is it was Ramsay, knowing it would spark a Frey Manderly conflict and probably lead to the 2 being send to fight Stannis and he needs the Freys out and preferably dead when he kills Roose.

The risk was too great.... the Freys and Manderly men could've started a full scale internal battle. But it's possible 

 

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

In the case of succession the Frey's are the second force behind the Dreadfort men and they clearly would support Walda's brood

Roose knew he'd be killed by his bastard and his wife and unborn child too... he says as much to Theon. Surely such a cold blooded a-hole like him would have made some arrangements... to survive 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If the leaked chapter is accurate, Aenys didn't sneak off to save his ass. He led the battle against Stannis and was killed.

What leaked chapter? I did read the Victarion I leak, but obviously that's not the one

[Nittanian]

1 hour ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

What leaked chapter? I did read the Victarion I leak, but obviously that's not the one

Spoiler

The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"

"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now." (TWOW Theon I)

 

[Alyn Oakenfist]

21 minutes ago, Nittanian said:

The king gave the bird an irritated look. "That Braavosi banker claimed Ser Aenys Frey is dead. Did some boy do that?"

"Twenty green boys, with spades," Theon told him. "The snow fell heavily for days. So heavily that you could not see the castle walls ten yards away, no more than the men up on the battlements could see what was happening beyond those walls. So Crowfood set his boys to digging pits outside the castle gates, then blew his horn to lure Lord Bolton out. Instead he got the Freys. The snow had covered up the pits, so they rode right into them. Aenys broke his neck, I heard, but Ser Hosteen only lost a horse, more's the pity. He will be angry now." (TWOW Theon I)

That's not a a leak, that's a preview chapter brought to us by GRRM himself. It basically canon. I though some new chapter leaked on the internet kinda like Victarion I if I remember correctly. I confused Hosteen for Aenys. Thought the other is revealed to have died too.

[Nittanian]

57 minutes ago, Alyn Oakenfist said:

That's not a a leak, that's a preview chapter brought to us by GRRM himself. It basically canon. I though some new chapter leaked on the internet kinda like Victarion I if I remember correctly. I confused Hosteen for Aenys. Thought the other is revealed to have died too.

There's also the small Last Week Tonight fragment, but I don't see Aenys mentioned.

[Van Gogh]

Mance Rayder lies easily.  It is his nature to deceive.  I still think he did it and kept it secret from the girls.

[TheLastWolf]

On 6/30/2020 at 7:50 PM, John Suburbs said:

And finally, 

  Hide contents

If the leaked chapter is accurate, Aenys didn't sneak off to save his ass. He led the battle against Stannis and was killed.

TWOW preview chapters are not final, as I'm sure you'd know by now. Any way, I just put out a motive for Aenys, not that he'd be successful in saving his ass.

On 7/1/2020 at 10:09 AM, Van Gogh said:

Mance Rayder lies easily.  It is his nature to deceive.  I still think he did it and kept it secret from the girls.

Motive? I know that he had to get fake Arya out, but he'd not kill some kid. It would have been a man.

 

[Walda]

On 6/30/2020 at 8:09 PM, TheLastWolf said:

BW thought that neither of them would never inherit the Twins in ACOK.

Quote

Little Walder objected. “And neither of us will ever hold the Twins, stupid.”

“I will,” Big Walder declared.

(ACoK Ch.4 Bran I)

[Darth Sidious]

It's hard to explain the blood on BW.  Though you are correct.  Such a smart boy would know the order of inheritance.  Knocking out LW is not going to do much good.  But it can make sense if we award BW with really high intelligence.  Like, on the Mensa level.  He would notice the hate towards the Freys among the northmen.  He would also have heard reports of many males in his family dropping off the map, dying.  Would he not reason that his chances are now actually very good?  Many ahead of him are dying.  He is fostered by the new powers in the north.  The Lady of the North is a Frey.  He is connected and has a realistic chance of inheriting the twins.

[TheLastWolf]

12 hours ago, Walda said:

(ACoK Ch.4 Bran I)

Sorry for that error.... Got them vice versa. I'm not completely at fault. The names are confusing 

[John Suburbs]

On 7/3/2020 at 6:10 AM, TheLastWolf said:

TWOW preview chapters are not final, as I'm sure you'd know by now. Any way, I just put out a motive for Aenys, not that he'd be successful in saving his ass.

Right. That's why I said if it was accurate. Not only will that part have to be included in Winds, but the report itself has to be accurate -- not, say, someone mistaken for Aenys, or simply a false report to throw Stannis off his game.

[TheLastWolf]

On 6/30/2020 at 7:50 PM, John Suburbs said:

First, Aenys kills LW and then later brings BW to be spattered by blood? Not possible. The blood would only spray out of the body for a few seconds, so BW would have to have been right there at the time of the murder, with all the blood spattering on him, including enough to cake his gloves, but none on Aenys.

Maybe BW stumbled upon Aenys murdering LW and tried to stop him, but it was too late. Aenys then brainwashes him with promises of making him Lord of the Crossing with another obstacle out of the way. Aenys could also have assuaged BW's conscience/guilt by pointing out that LW would have end up worse than Ramsay. I thought of this while posting the topic, but left it for a reason... to see if any one would think the same after reading my post

It's unlikely, but possible. 

[John Suburbs]

1 hour ago, TheLastWolf said:

Maybe BW stumbled upon Aenys murdering LW and tried to stop him, but it was too late. Aenys then brainwashes him with promises of making him Lord of the Crossing with another obstacle out of the way. Aenys could also have assuaged BW's conscience/guilt by pointing out that LW would have end up worse than Ramsay. I thought of this while posting the topic, but left it for a reason... to see if any one would think the same after reading my post

It's unlikely, but possible. 

Wow, I would call that a real stretch. I find it hard to believe that Martin would come up with that rather than BW getting blood on himself digging the body out of the snow.

[TheLastWolf]

7 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

rather than BW getting blood on himself digging the body out of the snow.

Blood would have frozen 

[John Suburbs]

4 minutes ago, TheLastWolf said:

Blood would have frozen 

It depends on how long the body lay there. Like I said earlier, just because there is pink hoarfrost on it and the blood Theon sees on the outside has frozen doesn't mean the body is frozen solid. That could have happened on the walk back from the ruined tower. Plus we have the fact that the horses started screaming and the dogs scattered at the scent of the blood as they entered the room, which indicates that it was still fresh.

And even if the blood in the snow that BW is digging through is frozen, it will still stick to has gloves, caking them with blood, and cling to the fabric on his chest, arms and cloak.

 

[Van Gogh]

On 7/3/2020 at 6:10 AM, TheLastWolf said:

Motive? I know that he had to get fake Arya out, but he'd not kill some kid. It would have been a man.

To create a rift between the Freys and the Manderlys.  Mance is an oathbreaker.  Killing kids is nothing to a deserter and a traitor.